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International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean 2018 International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean Stronger regional integration urgent to counter impact of trade conflicts Thank you for your interest in this ECLAC publication ECLAC Publications Please register if you would like to receive information on our editorial products and activities. When you register, you may specify your particular areas of interest and you will gain access to our products in other formats. www.cepal.org/en/suscripciones Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary Mario Cimoli Deputy Executive Secretary Raúl García-Buchaca Deputy Executive Secretary for Management and Programme Analysis Ricardo Pérez Chief, Publications and Web Services Division International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean is an annual report prepared by the Division of International Trade and Integration of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). The production of the report was overseen by Mario Cimoli, Deputy Executive Secretary and Officer in Charge of the Division of International Trade and Integration of ECLAC. Keiji Inoue, Senior Economic Affairs Officer with that Division, was responsible for its technical coordination. Mariano Alvarez, José Elías Durán, Sebastián Herreros and Nanno Mulder, staff members of the Division, assisted in the preparation and drafting of the chapters. The authors are grateful for inputs provided by Susanna Campbell, Sebastián Castresana, Marcelo Dolabella, Pilar Fajarnés Garcés, Scarlett Fondeur Gil, Nicolo Gligo, Javier López González, Zebulun Kreiter, Mauricio León, Jorge Mario Martínez, Javier Meneses, Wilson Peres, Esteban Pérez, Gabriel Porcile, Gastón Rigollet, Mario Saeteros, Jeannette Sánchez, Nunzia Saporito, Kati Suominen, Juan Diego Thorrens, Martha Tovar and Dayna Zaclicever. Thanks are also extended to the Central American Secretariat for Economic Integration (SIECA) and the General Secretariat of the Andean Community, which provided valuable statistical information. The boundaries and names shown on the maps included in this publication do not imply official acceptance or endorsement by the United Nations. United Nations publication ISBN: 978-92-1-122000-1 (print) ISBN: 978-92-1-058638-2 (pdf) ISBN: 978-92-1-358095-0 (ePub) Sales No.: E.18.II.G.6 LC/PUB.2018/20-P Distribution: G Explanatory notes: Copyright © United Nations, 2018 - Three dots (...) indicate that data are not available or are not separately reported. All rights reserved - A dash (-) indicates that the amount is nil or negligible. - A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals. Printed at United Nations, Santiago - The word “dollars” refers to United States dollars, unless otherwise specified. S.18-01069 - A slash (/) between years (e.g. 2013/2014) indicates a 12-month period falling between the two years. - Individual figures and percentages in tables may not always add up to the corresponding total because of rounding. This publication should be cited as: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2018 (LC/PUB.2018/20-P), Santiago, 2018. Applications for authorization to reproduce this work in whole or in part should be sent to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Publications and Web Services Division, [email protected]. Member States and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mention the source and to inform ECLAC of such reproduction. International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean • 2018 Contents 3 CONTENTS Presentation.......................................................................................................................................................9 Summary...........................................................................................................................................................13 Chapter I Trade tensions are worsening the international situation .......................................................................27 A. Weak growth and global strains: the legacy of the world economic crisis ...........................................29 1. The outlook for 2018: moderate and divergent growth ........................................................................29 2. The uncertain impact of macroeconomic policy and persistent inequality .....................................33 3. Trade dynamics are exacerbating global strains and imbalances ..................................................37 4. Vulnerability and external constraints in developing countries ......................................................42 5. Towards a break with the “pro-globalization consensus”? ............................................................46 B. The United States and China: a trade and technological dispute .........................................................49 C. The region’s exports have increased, but growth remained dependent on commodity prices .............55 D. Possible impacts of trade tensions for the region .................................................................................69 Bibliography ..................................................................................................................................................76 Annex I.A1 ....................................................................................................................................................79 Chapter II The region in the global minerals and metals trade .................................................................................81 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................83 A. China, the United States and Germany are the main players in the global minerals and metals trade .....................................................................................................................................83 B. The Latin America and the Caribbean region is a net exporter of minerals and metals, with a growing share of raw materials ..................................................................................................87 1. Heavy concentration by country, product and firm ..........................................................................87 2. The region’s main export clusters ...................................................................................................98 C. The region supplies mineral and metal commodities for the manufacturing exports of its partners ..........................................................................................................................109 D. The region runs an increasingly negative physical trade balance .......................................................113 E. The green economy offers an opportunity to add value to mining exports .........................................115 F. The challenge of adding value and sustainability to mining exports ..................................................122 Bibliography ................................................................................................................................................123 Annex II.A1 .................................................................................................................................................125 Chapter III Cross-border e-commerce as a new driver of exports ..........................................................................127 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................129 A. Definitions and dimensions of cross-border e-commerce ...................................................................129 B. The dynamics of cross-border e-commerce .........................................................................................132 1. E-commerce is spreading fast around the world ...........................................................................132 2. Trends in the region .......................................................................................................................137 C. Factors affecting cross-border e-commerce .........................................................................................148 1. Firms and consumers identify different challenges ......................................................................148 2. Digital ecosystem development varies between countries ..........................................................150 3. National regulations are heterogeneous .......................................................................................153 4. Inefficiencies in logistics, customs and postal services ...............................................................156 5. International payment systems need further development ..........................................................161 D. Initiatives for cross-border e-commerce ..............................................................................................162 1. Fostering the digital ecosystem .....................................................................................................163 4 Contents Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) 2. Multilateral and subregional progress on regulation ....................................................................164 3. Countries
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