Pacific Life Holiday Bowl --- Thursday, December 30 @ 8PM on ESPN

California (10-1) V. Texas Tech (7-4)

The Holiday Bowl has traditionally been an excellent bowl game. Take last year for instance, where State upset highly ranked Texas. This season is no different with Cal, like Texas last year upset about being snubbed by the BCS, taking on the high octane offense of Texas Tech. Red Raiders Sonny Cumbie is no stranger to throwing the ball a lot and he will probably need to if Texas Tech is trying to play catch-up with Cal. The stats and offensive personnel each team possesses makes for an entertaining, high scoring affair. Personally, Cal’s defense to me is slightly overrated. Having that said, Texas Tech’s defense is nowhere near as good so they’ll have to out- throw their opponent. I say out-throw because Texas Tech constantly passes ranking #1 in passing O’ and 111th on the ground. Jeff Tedford’s Bears are really two dimensional with J.J. Arrington’s 168 rush YPG (2nd in NCAA) and highly respected freshman Marshawn Lynch (602Yds. 7TD and 9.1YPC) powering the ground attack. Junior QB Aaron Rodgers is 7th in the NCAA in passing efficiency and has gotten along fine without last year’s 2nd best receiver in the country - Geoff McArthur - around and 100% all the time. McArthur won’t participate in this game and that opens the door for Jonathan Makonnen, Burl Toler and Chase Lyman. Cal’s o-line under appreciated and massive as all starters are 6-2 280 or bigger. T-Tech strangled OU to 28 points so DE Adell Duckett needs to get in Rodgers’ face and force him to make poor decisions. It’s all about Cumbie spreading it around (369YPG 1st in the nation) and hitting those five guys with 40+ grabs.

J.J. Arrington powers the Cal ground attack.

Aaron Rodgers’ decision whether or not to enter the NFL Draft has yet to come, though a big showing in the Holiday Bowl could decide it for him.

SU Pick: California 49-28 ATS Pick: Cal -11.5 LOCK (OV65) Silicon Valley Football Classic --- Thursday, December 30 @ 11PM on ESPN2

Northern Illinois (8-3) V. Troy (7-4)

Who wants it more? That’s what it comes down to for two schools playing arguably the biggest game in their history. Troy’s playing in its first ever bowl game, while Northern Illinois is making only the second postseason appearance in their history (first was in the 1983 California Bowl where they defeated Cal State-Fullerton 20-13). Last year I stood up for Northern Illinois by picking them to upset Maryland at the beginning of the 2003 season (one of the best picks I’ve ever made to start a season). In addition to that, I also campaigned for them to go bowling and what happened? Joe Novak’s Huskies were snubbed from the postseason. Losses to MAC West foes Bowling Green and Toledo hurt them, but the upsets of Alabama, Maryland and Iowa State did not assist them enough in the end. This season Northern Illinois went 8-3 and is well deserving of a bowl game without Michael “Burner” Turner in the backfield. They got it, and will face the men of Troy, who pulled an upset or two of their own by knocking off Marshall and Missouri. Expect a tight, low-scoring game when offensively challenged Troy brings its defensive horses to make the #14th ranked total offense in the country work hard for everything they earn.

NIU’s probably not as good as they were last season (10-2 in 2003), but can play with virtually anyone in the country. Troy’s specialty is defense, particularly sacking the quarterback. Against Marshall they held the Thundering Herd to 177 total yards of offense and Stan Hill got sacked time after time after time. Only five men in have more sacks this season than Troy’s DeMarcus Ware. Ware has 17.5 tackles for loss in addition to his Sun Belt Conference best 11 sacks. Garrett Wolfe’s done marvelous replacing Turner at for the Huskies. Wolfe leads the nation in scoring, has rushed for 17 and is 28 yards shy of 1600 for the year. He’s only a sophomore bound to get better. Versus the Trojans run defense, 7th overall, they will have to really mix up the play-calling running and throwing. Different kinds of runs giving the defense many different looks might be the only way to move the ball down field on them. Using 700-yard back A.J. Harris more can catch them off guard, too. Josh Haldi will be looking to hook up with receiver Dan Sheldon, whose 23.6 yards per catch average blows me away. Sheldon’s going up against Derrick Ainsley, a guy that has intercepted 14 passes over the past two campaigns. Northern Illinois’ offense vs. Troy’s defense to me is a draw. Even though that’s the matchup everyone will be watching - I will be looking at how Aaron Leak (6-7TD/Int. ratio), DeWhitt Betterson (1136Yds.), Jason Samples (35Rec. 600Yds. 6TD) and the rest of the gang do vs. the Huskies defense.

Take it Away: Troy’s defense has 32 takeaways this season, which is 2nd in the nation only behind #1 Southern California.

SU Pick: No. Illinois 16-8 ATS Pick: NI PK Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl --- Friday, December 31 @ Noon on ESPN

Alabama (6-5) V. Minnesota (6-5)

Sweet home Alabama! Believe it or not, the Bama Crimson Tide gave Auburn their biggest scare of the season. Alabama’s the best 6-5 team out there in my opinion. From a defensive standpoint they are not the team you want to play. Mike Shula and the Tide are 10th or better in total defense, scoring defense and passing defense (1st). In run defense they are 26th and have fantastic who are physical, plus hit hard. Cornelius Wortham (86 tackles), DeMeco Ryans and Freddie Roach (196 career tackles) makeup the experienced, tough linebacking core. Anthony Madison, Charlie Peprah and Roman Harper don’t miss a beat in the defensive backfield.

On offense Bama does not intimidate many people. They finished near the bottom of the passing offense category in part to all the injuries they’ve endured at the QB position. Rushing wise you’ve got to hand it to them for having such fabulous depth. LSU was the lone SEC team to average more yards rushing per game and Kenneth Darby’s been the most effective going over 1,000 yards on 218 carries. Their entire backfield has been banged up all year long and give props to the stellar offensive line anchored by mammoth tackle Wesley Britt (6-8 315 pounds). Minnesota opened the season very hot like always and the relatively easy early schedule came back to bite them. From October 9th on they are 1-5, including an embarrassing loss at Indiana. Gophers tandem of Marion Barber III and is truly special. If Barber gets 18 yards (which he will) they will become the first set of teammates in school history to together rush for over 1100 yards and 10+TD in consecutive seasons. The Gophers defense (86th in total D) has to prepare for trick plays.

Don’t hesitate to combinate. Okay, so combinate is not a word, but I like it …. anyway, Minnesota hasn’t hesitated to run the ball with Laurence Maroney and Marion Barber III in the backfield.

SU Pick: Alabama 25-12 ATS Pick: Bama -3 LOCK Vitalis Sun Bowl --- Friday, December 31 @ 2PM on CBS

Arizona State (8-3) V. Purdue (7-4)

Arizona State began the season pretty hot similarly to Purdue’s 5-0 start. Then it all came to a screeching halt. Dirk Koetter’s ASU Sun Devils debatably had their best season in the new millennium, but got drubbed by Pac-10 opponents Cal and USC. Their worst loss, though came in the season finale vs. an Arizona team with a losing record. Purdue surprised us all by thrashing Notre Dame in South Bend 41-16 and following up with a narrow TD win over Joe Pa’s Nittany Lions. It’s been a roller-coaster ride for Purdue senior quarterback , who was the Heisman favorite midway through October. Orton got off to a fantastic start, completing 119-172 for 1642 yards and a 18- 2TD/Int. ratio leading up to the game vs. Wisconsin. Homecoming for the senior Orton was not so fantastic as the team suffered its first defeat of the year 20-17. That led to three straight Big 10 losses to Michigan, Northwestern and Iowa. Orton was benched by Head Coach , a man that’s coached Purdue to a bowl game every year he’s been at West Lafayette. Not a coincidence if you ask me when the last time they didn’t play in a bowl game was 1996 - the season prior to his arrival. Anyhow, Orton, who has thrown for 932 yards and 5TD in bowl games, has re-established himself as the top quarterback in the Big 10. The guy he was going to try to outdo at QB was Andrew Walter (3150Yds. 30TD-9Int.). But an injury to him puts untested sophomore Sam Keller into the fire.

The quarterback duel between Andrew Walter and Kyle Orton might have been the best of the entire bowl season had Walter not gotten hurt.

Orton and Keller have solid weapons in 1,000 yard WR’s Derek Hagan and Taylor Stubblefield and 600+ yard guys Terry Richardson and Kyle Ingraham. I think we’ll see Orton flourish come crunch time due to experience. Take eight senior defensive starters for ASU over just two for the Boilermakers, but the injury to Walter changes everything.

SU Pick: Purdue 37-31 ATS Pick: ASU +7.5 LOCK (OV55) AutoZone --- Friday, December 31 @ 3:30PM on ESPN

Boise State (11-0) V. Louisville (10-1)

Contrasting styles of play? I don’t think so scooter! Louisville and Boise average 50 and 49 points respectively. At last check the over/under was 82.5, and don’t be surprised to see 100 total points or more. Bowling Green (#4) and Memphis (#10) play one another in what should be an offensive slugfest. Here we’ve got the #1 and #2 scoring offenses in the NCAA. And what I love most about both Louisville and Boise is the fact they are deadly offensively throwing the ball and running instead of just chucking it every down (a.k.a. Texas Tech and Hawaii). Balance defines them and the best balance will win out here. Contrary to what most may think, tackling could be the difference. All it takes is a few big tackles on second or third down to stall the other’s drive. Since Boise and Louisville have quick strike offenses headed by quick strike QB’s in Stefan LeFors and Jared Zabransky, a defensive score/stop/turnover can shift momentum in a second. It’s also interesting to note each squad ranks near the top of the NCAA in takeaways and their are some major out there to be aware of come December 31st.

I want to get down to talking about these teams’ offensive playmakers. For Boise, who has Division 1-A’s longest active winning streak (22), they’ve better than adequately replaced one of the school’s finest QB’s ever in . Zabransky has made his share of mistakes, though has helped the Broncos scored 50+ points six times this season (something Louisville has also done). The Cardinals 44 rushing scores is only bettered by Boise (46). Zabransky and Jon Helmandollar have combined to rush for 545 yards, yet have ran in the end zone a total of 25 times in 11 games. Antwaun Carter and Quinton Jones provide insurance behind 902-yard rusher Lee Marks. Arguably the most underrated blocker in the country blocks for Boise. That would be NFL material left tackle Daryn Colledge, who at 6-5 272 uses terrific wonderful leverage to finish defenders. T.J. Acree has improved steadily at receiver the past two seasons. LeFors (18-2 TD/Int.) has handled adversity well his whole life and ranks #1 in passing efficiency with looking over his shoulder. Florida State transfer Eric Shelton amazingly has 19 touchdowns with just 128 carries to his credit and 862 yards (6.7Avg.). Michael Bush is unbelievably versatile and can play QB, RB, FB or receiver. He’s just an incredible talent, as are receivers/special teams contributors J.R. Russell and Broderick Clark. Tennessee transfer Montrell Jones and Joshua Tinch compliment everyone else in the receiving game.

Best Game Because….. Points are not at a premium!

A reason to maybe expect less scoring than usual: Louisville ranks 20th in scoring defense, while their opponent on New Year’s Eve is 46th. There’s some athletes on defense, too.

SU Pick: Louisville 48-40 ATS Pick: Boise +14 – LOCK: (OV81) Chick-Fil-A --- Friday, December 31 @ 7:30PM on ESPN

Florida (7-4) V. Miami (FL) (8-3)

Florida Fest! That’s what the headline reads in the Sunshine State when these two intrastate rivals go head to head. The Gators will not be coached by (the old coach now at Illinois) or (the guy coming over from Utah who will start next year), but rather by . will be the man standing on the opposite side of the field. Coker already has a record of 43-6 and won the National Championship in first season in Coral Gables. Miami’s matchup with Florida is a tough one because they kind of match them athlete for athlete. Plus, Florida quarterback (271Tot.YPG - leads SEC) gets the nod over , an ex- Gator. Berlin’s been inconsistent all season and throughout his collegiate career. If you remember two seasons ago the game where Florida had the big half-time lead and Miami came back, then you know it’s not over till it’s over with these two schools. Berlin (13TD-2Int. last six games) tends to play better in the second half and a lot of the players around him do their part. Frank Gore and Tyrone Moss are tough running backs that never quit on any play. Ryan Moore stretches the field offensively and gets first downs. On defense the Hurricanes don’t swarm to the ball as fast as in the past, but do have super speed and my top rated CB . Without Eric Winston blocking at tackle for the Canes I’d blitz at least 65% of the time if I was Florida using LB’s Channing Crowder and . FL must establish the run with Ciatrick Fason right behind the big line guys.

Florida running back Ciatrick Fason and Miami corner Antrel Rolle will play pivotal roles in the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl.

X-factor: Devin Hester- Along with Teddy Ginn Jr. of Ohio State, Hester is the most dangerous return man in the game today. He’s returned four kicks for touchdowns, including one that was a major momentum shifter in the come-from- behind victory over Louisville.

SU Pick: Miami 28-23 ATS Pick: Miami -3 SBC Cotton Bowl --- Saturday, January 1 @ 11AM on FOX

Tennessee (9-3) V. Texas A&M (7-4)

To say that Tennessee is in a state of trouble right now would be an understatement. Injuries are plaguing the Vols everywhere from QB and running back earlier in the year to defensive tackle and . Tennessee is down to their third string signal caller in Rick Clausen, the younger brother of last year’s starting gunslinger Casey Clausen. Rick’s a junior with very little experience and it has shown in the team’s last four contests. In fact, Tennessee’s best game since November was probably in the SEC Championship where they lost to Auburn. The stat that stands out to me is turnover margin. Texas A&M is tied for 4th, while Phil Fulmer’s Vols share the 60th position alongside the University of Nevada. Down in College Station they are ecstatic with the turnaround after being 4-8 in coach Fran’s inaugural campaign. Reggie McNeal, 11-TD man Courtney Lewis and the lightning quick Terrence Murphy headline the offense. The lone knock on Texas A&M offensively would have to be their inability to find a threat at receiver, which hurt them last season as the team threw 12 TD passes compared to 13 picks. Defensively they’re vastly improved, but someone needs to emerge at the wide receiver position or find a good medium at receiver like Tennessee has done.

What also could trouble the Aggies is penalties. Dennis Franchione and his bunch average between 8-9 per game, which will you against a team like Tennessee. Gerald Riggs Jr. really gave Tennessee a boost in the rushing game when he ran for 182 yards on the Tigers. We’ll see if it carries over vs. the nation's 40th ranked congested run defense.

Sophomore Stud: Sophomore free safety Corey Campbell (6-3 190) has intercepted four passes this season for the Vols and made two picks last year. Campbell’s helped heel the woes from defensive back departures Jabari Greer, Gibril Wilson and Rashad Baker.

Texas A&M quarterback Reggie McNeal has been the catalyst to jump-starting the Aggies offense following a season opening loss at Utah. McNeal’s 295 total yards per game ranks 6th in the NCAA.

SU Pick: Texas A&M 30-13 ATS Pick: TAM -3