The Inner Game of Futures
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Politics of Designing Visions of the Future
DOI:10.6531/JFS.201903_23(3).0003 ARTICLE .23 Politics of Designing Visions of the Future Ramia Mazé Aalto University Finland Abstract Scenarios for policy and the public are increasingly given form by designers. For design, this means ideas about the future – futurity – is at stake, particularly in genres of ‘concept’, ‘critical’ and ‘persuasive’ design. While critical approaches are present in futures studies and political philosophy, design assumptions and preferences are typically not explicit, including gender norms, socio-ecological practices and power structures. Calling for further studies of the politics of design visions, I outline possible approaches and elaborate through the example ‘Switch! Energy Futures’. I reflect upon how competing visions and politics of sustainability become explicit through our process, aesthetics and stakeholders. Keywords: Futures Studies, Design, Design Theory, Visualization, Scenarios, Political Philosophy. Introduction The future – indeed, temporality – has only entered substantially into design discourse relatively recently. Design and other disciplines such as architecture, geography and geology have long been preoccupied with space rather than with time (Grosz, 1999; Mazé, 2007). Today, however, ideas about the future – or, in philosopher Elizabeth Grosz’ terms, futurity – is stake in many design arguments and practices. Assumptions about time, progress and futurity underlie popular rhetoric concerning ‘change’, ‘progress’, ‘transformation’ and ‘transition’, and design, along with many disciplines, is affected by the increasing hegemony of values framed as ‘newness’ and ‘innovation’ (e.g. Wakeford, 2014). Beyond mere rhetoric, design research and practice must further develop its approaches to futurity. Indeed, the future is itself might be conceived as a design problem (Reeves, Goulden, & Dingwall, 2016). -
Implication of Two New Paradigms for Futures Studies1 Éva HIDEG
Implication of Two New Paradigms for Futures Studies 1 Éva HIDEG Abstract The paper considers the emergence of two recent perspectives in futures work. One is evolutionary futures studies. The other is critical futures studies. After describing aspects of each, the paper considers them as alternative rival paradigms in relation to criteria that include: the role of the human being as a subject, the role of interpretation and differences in methodological premises. It concludes that both have contributed to the development of futures methods but that a number of theoretical and methodological problems still remain unsolved. 1. Antecedents and main theoretical-methodological problems What has most characterised the road covered by studies of futures up to the 1980s was its emergence as an independent and structured field of science and as an independent sphere of social activity. Despite the fact that the theory and methodology of futures research had crystallised and solidified, the studies of futures had by no means become united. The paradigmatic differences interpreted according to Kuhn remained palpable 2. This was most detectable in the cultivation of two differing systems of approaches, namely in futures research, which adopts the criteria of classical science, and in futures studi es , which is more culture-based. Futures research, which moulds the particular criteria of science it wishes to adhere to more and more, worked on developing and adapting new methods and on uniformly solidifying the process of forecasting in different areas. Futures studies, however, interpreted the determination of the future, the future-shaping role of culture and the methodology of futures studies through the filter of research into culture. -
Microvita and Other Spaces: Deepening Research Through Intuitional Practice
SYMPOSIUM .137 Microvita and Other Spaces: Deepening Research through Intuitional Practice Marcus Bussey University of the Sunshine Coast Australia Another language will perhaps one day help us to say better what still remains to be said about [the] metonymic figures of the unconditional. (Derrida, 2005, p.148) The encounter between different levels of Reality and different levels of perception engenders different levels of representation. Images corresponding to a certain level of representation have a different quality than images associated with another level of representation, because each quality is associated with a certain level of Reality and a certain level of perception. (Nicolescu, 2002, p.99) The concept of microvita was first introduced to me in December 1987. I was visiting India and heard Prabhat Rainjan Sarkar discussing it with a large audience. Everyone seemed excited and bemused. What was it all about? This bemused look comes over people today when the concept comes up in conversation. Microvita acts as a category of 'otherness' that seems to flag something important and yet it is so hard to pin down. I think Derrida is pointing to this kind of space within the rational where other forms of language and expression grope towards alternative epistemic con- figurations that allow us to access quite other domains in our attempt to understand this world of ours. It is, as Nicolescu points out, a matter of working across perceptual domains which require alternative forms of representation. We, the perceivers, need to shift both our reasoning and our per- ceiving to accommodate an idea that still largely occupies a space beyond our civilisational horizon. -
INAYATULLAH, Sohail. Causal Layered Analysis
Futures, Vol. 30, No. 8, pp. 815–829, 1998 Pergamon 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved Printed in Great Britain 0016–3287/98 $19.00 ϩ 0.00 PII: S0016–3287(98)00086-X CAUSAL LAYERED ANALYSIS Poststructuralism as method Sohail Inayatullah Causal layered analysis is offered as a new futures research method. It utility is not in predicting the future but in creating transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures. Causal layered analysis consists of four levels: the litany, social causes, discourse/worldview and myth/metaphor. The challenge is to conduct research that moves up and down these layers of analysis and thus is inclusive of different ways of knowing. 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved In the context of using poststructuralism as a research method, this article introduces a new futures research method—causal layered analysis (CLA). Causal layered analysis is concerned less with predicting a particular future and more with opening up the present and past to create alternative futures. It focuses less on the horizontal spatiality of futures—in contrast to techniques such as emerging issues analysis, scenarios and back- casting—and more on the vertical dimension of futures studies, of layers of analysis. Causal layered analysis opens up space for the articulation of constitutive discourses, which can then be shaped as scenarios. Rick Slaughter considers it a paradigmatic method that reveals deep worldview committments behind surface phenomena.1 Writes Slaughter, ‘Causal layered analysis... provides a richer account of what is being studied than the more common empiricist or predictive orientation which merely ’skims the sur- face’. -
Department of Futures Studies
DEPARTMENT OF FUTURES STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF KERALA M.Phil PROGRAMME IN FUTURES STUDIES SYLLABUS (Under Credit and Semester System w.e.f. 2016 Admissions) UNIVERSITY OF KERALA DEPARTMENT OF FUTURES STUDIES M.Phil Programme in Futures Studies Aim: The M.Phil Programme in Futures Studies aims to make the students to conceive and constitute objects for research that belong to interdisciplinary areas with special emphasis on science, technology and its relationship with society with a futuristic outlook. It also intends to equip the students with forecasting and futuristic problem solving methods in their basic areas of specialization. Objectives To introduce the students to advanced areas of research in their basic domain with a futuristic outlook. To make the students competent in literature collection pertaining to his/her study area. To make the students to do independent field work and data collection. To prepare the students for undertaking analysis with the help of computational tools and softwares. To prepare the students to undertake serious research and train the students in better scientific communication. Structure of the Programme Semester Course Code Name of the Course Number of No. Credits FUS-711 Interdisciplinary Research & Research 4 Methodology FUS-712 Scientific Computing and Forecasting 4 FUS-713(i) Technological Futures, Forecasting and 4 Assessment FUS-713(ii) Computational Chemistry 4 FUS-713(iii) Molecular Modeling and Molecular Dynamics 4 I FUS-713(iv) Optimization Techniques 4 FUS-713(v) Nonlinear Dynamics and -
Futures-Thinking Skills to Students and Educators Around the World and to Inspire Them to Influence Their Futures
Teaching about the Future Peter Bishop Sacramento CA 30 October 2030 We teach the future as we do the past. Our ASPIRATION is that every student is prepared to navigate an uncertain world and has the agency to imagine and create their preferred future. Our MISSION is to teach futures-thinking skills to students and educators around the world and to inspire them to influence their futures. We teach the future as we do the past. Today’s Purpose Enroll you in the campaign to accomplish something of significance “My name is Harvey Milk... And I am here to recruit you.” -- Milk, the movie, 2008 We teach the future as we do the past. The Invention of “the Future” • Ancient techniques, Delphic Oracle • Eschatology, End times • Enlightenment (Industrial revolution) – Sebastien Mercier, L’Ann 2440 (1770) – Marquis de Condorcet, Sketch for a Historical Picture of the Progress of the Human Mind (1778) – Thomas Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798) • Science fiction – Jules Verne (1865), H.G. Wells (1898) • Trends – William Ogburn (1933), H.G. Wells (1901) • Theory (1950s) – Herman Kahn, RAND Corp – Fred Polak, Bertrand de Jouvenel, Gaston Berger We teach the future as well as the past. The Professionalization of the Future • Forecasting – from the Delphic Oracle to… – Trend extrapolation: William Ogburn, Recent Social Trends, 1933 – Econometrics: Lawrence Klein, Wharton Econometric Model, 1969 • Planning – from L’Enfant, Wash DC to… – Budget planning: Programming, Planning, Budgeting Systems (PPBS), 1961 – Urban planning: American Planning Assoc, 1978 – Strategic planning: Michael Porter, Competitive Strategy, 1980 We teach the future as well as the past. -
A Review of Sohail Inayatullah's
DOI:10.6531/JFS.2017.22(1).A97 REVIEW .97 A Review of Sohail Inayatullah’s “Prout in Power: Policy Solutions that Reframe Our Futures” Wu Tzu-Ying Wen Hua Elementary School Taiwan The purpose of futures studies is to make the world a better place and improve the welfare of all living beings. Alternative futures, ethics, and increasing democratic participation are parts of exploring sustainable futures (Bell, 2003). In Sohail Inayatullah’s new book, he uses PROUT (progressive utilization theory) as theory and strategy to discover not only alternative futures, but also practical approaches to create better futures. The Book’s Framework There are six sections of the book, starting with the concepts of PROUT to issues of politics, education, society, economy and transformation. In first one, the author deconstructs PROUT to provide a new scope of futures-focused policy-making from triple bottom line to a quadruple bottom line. Neo-humanism is weaved into theory and action to make policy processes future-oriented and deeper. The four classes in Sarkar’s theory of social change are workers, warriors, intellectuals and accumulators of capital. These are applied to understanding history and policy-making. Organizations and individuals can glean insights across the landscape of institutions to selves through playing the Sarkar game, with case studies detailing and demonstrating it. Political issues in Asia and new emerging Asian visions are presented in part two. Historical and emerging conflicts and the rise of Asia make Asian visions and futures unique. Inayatullah analyzes the present conflicts and the possible future using Sarkar’s four classes to understand the power shifts in play, with case studies of visions and influencers. -
Futures Studies: Theories and Methods Sohail Inayatullah >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Futures Studies: Theories and Methods Sohail Inayatullah >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> INTRODUCTION Futures studies is the systematic study of possible, probable and preferable futures including the worldviews and myths that underlie each future. In the last fifty or so years, the study of the future has moved from predicting the future to mapping alternative futures to shaping desired futures, both at external collective levels and inner individual levels (Masini 1993; Bell 1996; Amara 1981; Sardar 1999; Inayatullah 2000; Saul 2001). During this period, futures studies has moved from focusing on the external objective world to a layered approach wherein how one sees the world actually shapes the future one sees (Inayatullah 2002). In this critical futures approach — the poststructural turn — the external world is informed by the inner and, crucially, a person’s inner world is informed by the reality of the external. While many embrace futures studies so as to reduce risk, to avoid negative futures, particularly the worst case, others actively move to creating desired futures, positive visions of the future (Masini 1983). The identification of alternative futures is thus a fluid dance of structure (the weights of history) and agency (the capacity to influence the world and create desired futures). As the world has become increasingly risky — at least in perception, if not in fact — futures studies has been eagerly adopted by executive leadership teams and planning departments in organizations, institutions and nations throughout the world. While futures studies sits comfortably as an executive function by providing the big picture, there Blanca Muñoz, Campo magnético triple (detail) remain tangible tensions between the planning and futures frameworks. -
Islam, Postmodernism and Other Futures: a Ziauddin Sardar Reader
Inayatullah 00 prelims 18/11/03 15:35 Page iii Islam, Postmodernism and Other Futures A Ziauddin Sardar Reader Edited by Sohail Inayatullah and Gail Boxwell Pluto P Press LONDON • STERLING, VIRGINIA Inayatullah 00 prelims 18/11/03 15:35 Page iv First published 2003 by Pluto Press 345 Archway Road, London N6 5AA and 22883 Quicksilver Drive, Sterling, VA 20166–2012, USA www.plutobooks.com Copyright © Ziauddin Sardar 2003 © Introduction and selection Sohail Inayatullah and Gail Boxwell 2003 The right of Ziauddin Sardar, Sohail Inayatullah and Gail Boxwell to be identified as the authors of this work has been asserted by them in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 0 7453 1985 8 hardback ISBN 0 7453 1984 X paperback Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Sardar, Ziauddin. Islam, postmodernism and other futures : a Ziauddin Sardar reader / edited by Sohail Inayatullah and Gail Boxwell. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0–7453–1985–8 (HB) –– ISBN 0–7453–1984–X (PB) 1. Islam––20th century. 2. Postmodernism––Religious aspects––Islam. 3. Islamic renewal. 4. Civilization, Islamic. I. Inayatullah, Sohail, 1958– II. Boxwell, Gail. III. Title. BP163 .S354 2003 297'.09'04––dc21 2002152367 10987654321 Designed and produced for Pluto Press by Chase Publishing Services, Fortescue, Sidmouth, England Typeset from disk by Stanford DTP Services, Towcester Printed and bound in the European Union by Antony Rowe, Chippenham and Eastbourne, England Inayatullah 00 prelims 18/11/03 15:35 Page v Contents Introduction: The Other Futurist 1 Sohail Inayatullah and Gail Boxwell I Islam 1. -
Entropy and Immortality
ARTICLE .39 Entropy and Immortality Charles Tandy Fooyin University Taiwan Abstract In part one (of two parts) I show that any purely physical-scientific account of reality must be deficient. Instead, I present a general-ontological framework that should prove fruitful when discussing or resolving philosophic controversies; indeed, I show that the paradigm readily resolves the controversy "Why is there something rather than nothing?" In part two, now informed by the previously established general ontology, I explore the issue of immor- tality. The analysis leads me to make this claim: Entropy is a fake. Apparently the physical-scientific resurrec- tion of all dead persons is our ethically-required common-task. Suspended-animation, superfast-rocketry, and seg-communities (Self-sufficient Extra-terrestrial Green-habitat communities, or O'Neill communities) are identified as important first steps. Keywords: all/everything, biostasis/suspended animation, Nikolai Fedorovich Fedorov, Kurt Gödel, knowl- edge, mind, Gerard K. O'Neill, ontology, paradigm, time travel Introduction: Caveat Emptor Futures studies or futuristic studies (or futuristics) is a multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary enterprise. I myself happen to be both philosopher and futurist. Since most futurists and most read- ers of this article are not philosophers, I may need to briefly explain my style of presentation. Assertion, inference, and argument – used in a concerted, deliberative, disciplined way – are com- mon tools of philosophers past and present. Accordingly, a philosopher may sound unusually sure of herself for the purpose of professional discourse. In such way two philosophers may seem to be bitter enemies in their published works. But outside the publication world, the two may in fact be the closest of friends. -
Forest Futures: a Causal Layered Analysis
ARTICLE .49 Forest Futures: A Causal Layered Analysis Amelia Ariell University of the Sunshine Coast Australia Abstract This article employs Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), a futures methodology, to deconstruct Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, or REDD; an emergent aspect of United Nations Climate Change negotiations. In light of this CLA, I question whether this global policy framework is likely to bring about transformative forest futures or simply reproduce (or even worsen) the historical conditions com- plicit in deforestation. Keywords: REDD, UNFCCC, deforestation, Causal Layered Analysis, deconstruction Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), a futures methodology developed by Sohail Inayatullah (1998, 2002 & 2004), provides a useful framework to critically analyse emerging social and environmental policy making. In this paper, I apply CLA to this end, examining an emergent global policy frame- work that aims to protect forests as a means of addressing climate change. The Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, or REDD initiative forms a key aspect of current nego- tiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Below I deconstruct the dominant analyses of deforestation that inform REDD policy development, consid- ering the discourses, worldviews and myths that underpin them. This exposes the assumptions that inform these analyses and draws attention to aspects of the problem that they obscure. By decon- structing the discursive frameworks informing REDD policy initiatives, CLA questions whether a REDD mechanism is likely to bring about transformative forest futures or simply reproduce (or even worsen) the historical conditions complicit in deforestation. The Four Conceptual Layers of CLA CLA provides a means of ordering and analysing the various ways that an issue, such as cli- mate change or deforestation, is framed within the policy-making context. -
Beyond the Pendulum of the General and the Landlord-Politician: Understanding and Creating Alternative Futures for Pakistan
ESSAY .69 Beyond the Pendulum of the General and the Landlord-Politician: Understanding and Creating Alternative Futures for Pakistan Sohail Inayatullah Tamkang University Taiwan University of the Sunshine Coast Australia In this essay, I outline five futures for Pakistan: (1) the Pendulum continues forever, (2) Collapse, (3) joining Chindia, (4) the Great Game, and (5) a South Asian Confederation. The most familiar and likely are based on the pendulum of rule by the military and rule by landlord/politi- cians. However, what is needed is to move from the more likely and less desirable futures to a process of anticipatory democracy where the citizens of Pakistan consider, create and commit to building their preferred future. Deep Structures While the assassination of Benazir Bhutto certainly plunged Pakistan into one of its worst crises in decades, the recent successful elections (Hasan, 2008) appear to have brought hope back again. The extremist parties did poorly (Associated Press, 2880), and even with a low turn out and election violence, it appears that the latest cycle of military rule is over. Yes, much remains unresolved. Certainly as Nathan Gardels argues in his article, "Bhutto's elimination a big boost for al-Qa'ida," (2008), the West did lose track of the prize, focusing on Iraq instead of on Islamabad. It is in Pakistan where the future of the Islamic world lies (Schwartz, 2008). In addition to the Afghanistan Taliban, there is now a Pakistani Taliban. Nuclearization con- tinues. Civil society is still vulnerable to internal and external shocks. Can politicians create a secu- lar democratic Pakistan? Or will the politics of Jihadism continue, with Kashmir returning as the battle front? While these issues are important in understanding Pakistan's future, we often forget the deep archetypes and structures (inner symbols and external patterns) in Pakistani politics.