Forecasting Future Transit Route Ridership

Transportation Research Record 1036 19 Forecasting Future Transit Route Ridership HERBERT S. LEVINSON ABSTRACT This paper contains an analysis of the ridership potentials of various public transportation options for the Michigan Avenue Corridor in East Lansing (.!_). Ridership projections were based on: corridor population and employment growth; changes in service levels resulting from the various options: and effects of changes in gasoline price, parking costs, and increased traffic congestion. An origin-destination matrix of bus riders was derived from on-and-off counts. Differential growth rates for various sections of the corridor were developed and applied to this derived matrix to derive future bus trip interchange pat terns. Elasticity factors were applied to specific trip linkages to estimate the impacts of reduced travel times for both the $0.35 fare in effect during 1979-1980, and the $0.50 fare placed in effect during June, 1981. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to quantify the impacts of changes in gasoline costs and availability, increased traffic congestion, and changes in downtown parking policy. Ridership estimates were developed for 1985 and 2000 for five service options. The daily ridership would increase from 6,235 passengers in 1980 (with a $0. 35 fare) to between 7, 200 and 9 ,ODO passengers by year 2000 for a $0. 50 fare. Peak-hour one-way riders at the maximum load point would rise from 440 passengers in 1980 to 860 passengers by year 2000 depending on the service option. The ridership forecasting methods have applicability in other urban areas as well. They are particularly valuable where it is reasonable to assume that transit will retain its share of the corridor travel market (i.e., short range forecasts). Where this is not the case, adjustments can be made to the future-year base service option before elasticity factors are applied. Many public transportation planning decisions must State University (MSU) enrollment and Lansing cen be based on a limited amount of data. This is espe tral business district (CBD) employment. cially true for forecasting future route ridership 3. A generalized origin-destination pattern for in a small or medium-size community where detailed Route 1 bus riders was derived from the Capital Area travel patterns or network information is not avail Transit Authority's (CATA) on-and-off passenger able. counts. Long-term patronage forecasts for corridor tran 4. Bus travel patterns for 1985 and the year sit alternatives in a medium-size urban area--Lans 2000 were derived, taking into account corridor ing, Michigan are developed in this paper. It shows population and employment growth. Differential growth how future corridor ridership can be estimated based rates for various sections of the corridor were on on-and-off counts, population and employment developed and applied to the derived origin-destina forecasts, travel time studies, and elasticity fac tion matrix to develop 1985 and 2000 bus trip pat tors. terns, assuming that existing bus service is adjusted In addition, the paper also contains an analysis to reflect and realize this corridor growth. of ridership potentials of various public trans 5. Travel time estimates were developed for five portation options for the Michigan Avenue corridor basic transit service options: in Lansing and East Lansing, Michigan. It is based on surveys and analyses conducted during 1981-1982 • the base condition as part of an alternatives analysis study. • improved bus service • trolley bus • high-capital bus (busway) GENERAL PROCEDURES • light rail transit The transit ridership estimates were based on the following steps: 6. Elasticity factors were then applied, taking into account (a) changes in service levels resulting 1. A field reconnaissance study was made to from the various options, and (b) effects of changes identify corridor characteristics, observe traffic in gasoline prices, parking costs, traffic conges conditions, and determine travel times. tion, and transit fares as follows: 2. Available information on population, employ ment, bus ridership, and traffic flow was assembled • The elasticity factors were applied to spe and reviewed; this included population forecasts, cific trip linkages to estimate the impacts of re on-and-off bus ridership surveys; and traffic volume duced travel times for each service option. Estimates trends. The data were analyzed to obtain a picture assumed that the fares would be the same for each of existing conditions and likely changes over the option, and that there would be no sustained fuel next several decades. Agency projections were modi shortages or major policy disincentives to driving. fied where appropriate to reflect the 1980 U.S. • Ridership estimates were keyed to the $0.35 Census results, and prospects for growth in Michigan fare in effect during 1979-1980; they were then 20 Transportation Research Record 1036 adjusted to reflect the $0.50 fare in effect in June Traffic and Person Flows 1981, based on information received from CATA. • Sensitivity analyses were conducted to quan Daily and peak-hour traffic flows on Grand River tify the effects of changes in gasoline cost and Avenue between Michigan Avenue and Bogue Street, as availability, increased traffic congestion, and observed by the Michigan Department of Transporta changes in downtown parking policy. tion, approximated 39, 00 O vehicles i peak-hour peak • Estimates were prepared for 1985 and 2000 d irection flows ranged from 1,700 to 2,100 vehicles- ridership on a daily basis, and also for peak-hour, approximately 4-5 percent of the daily two-way total. peak-direction passenger flows past the maximum load The 2, 100 vehicles operated in three lanes on a point. 28-ft wide roadway through signalized intersections in East Lansing. Buses carried approximately 12 per The ridership forecasts assumed that the base cent of the daily person-movements along Michigan condition would adjust existing services sufficiently Avenue and about 4-8 percent within the corridor. to enable ridership to increase proportional to During the morning peak-hour, 11,000 people entered population and employment growth in the corridori downtown Lansing, of which 11 percent came by bus. otherwise, bus ridership would essentially remain at existing levels. Ridership would also increase as service levels in the corridor were improved--the Travel Times and Traffic Conditions increases would reflect both trips diverted from cars and new trips. Relatively little congestion was observed in the corridor and its environs. Speeds along Michigan Avenue between Cedar Street and Marsh Road ap proximated 28 to 32 mph during the a.m. peak, 29 mph EXISTING CORRIDOR CHARACTERISTICS midday and 25 to 26 mph during the p.m. peak. They were largely governed by the traffic signal progres The Michigan Avenue Corridor was defined as an area sion that is reportedly set for 30 mph. Travel times approximately 1 mi wide bisected by Michigan and between the Lansing CBD and Abbott in East Lansing Grand River Avenues, having as its western terminus approximated 8-10 min by car, 15 min by express bus, the Lansing CBD, and extending eastward through the and 15-20 min by local bus with variations by time East Lansing CBD to Hagadorn Road and beyond to the of day. Travel times between the Lansing CBD and Meridian Mall--a major generator (see Figure 1). Marsh Road (Meridian Mall) approximated 14-17 min by car, 25 min by express bus and 30-35 min by local bus (see Table 1). Deue lonm~n t. P<?i t_ t_pr n ~ The 7-mi corridor had a population of approximately Bus Ride rship 90 ,ODO people in 1980--approximately 22 percent of the 417,000 people residing in the Tri-County Region. Public transport was provided by two agencies--CATA It contained more than 40 percent of the 140,000 and the MSU bus system. CATA's bus fleet included 74 jobs in the Tri-County area, including the Lansing buses and 6 paratransit vehicles of which 52 ran in CBD (20,500 jobs) i MSU (8,800 jobs), and the East peak periods and 3 5 ran midday . Weekday CATA rid er - Lansing CBD (1,800 jobs). It includes MSU with 45,700 ship averaged 16 ,000 in 1980, reaching 20 ,000 on students, the Frandor Shopping center with 500,000 days when MSU was in session. MSU bus system daily f~ of floor space, and Meridian Mall with 1 ridership ranged from 7,500 in the spring of 1980 to million ft' • 17,000 during the 1980 winter term. A $0.35 to $0.50 Meridian Mall Number FIGURE 1 Study corridor and environs. Levinson 21 TABLE 1 Michigan Avenue Profile Comparative Avenue Travel Times Grand-Abbott (min) Grand-Marsh Road (min) Direction of Local Express Local Express Travel Automobile Bus Bus Automobile Bus Bus Eastbound AM 9 15 14 30 Midday 8 20 15 35 PM 10 20 15 17 35 25 Westbound AM 9 15 16 30 Midday 8 20 15 35 PM 10 20 15 17 35 25 Sources: Michigan Department of Transportation speed runs; CATA Route l schedules, effective September 15, 1980; H.S. Levinson speed runs, June 1981. CATA fare increase in 1981 resulted in a 7-8 percent of the short length of most sections, it generally decline in average weekday ridership. was assumed that bus riders would travel from one Daily ridership in the corridor totaled 6,235 section to another. However, in the case of Sections passengers in 1979, of which Route 1 (East Lansing 1 and 6, intra-section trips were included. Mall) carried 5,470 passengers, or one-third of the Figure 2 shows how the trip matrix was developed. system's total weekday ridership. westbound buses Section 1, for example, had 13 percent of all west during the morning peak hour on a typical April 1980 bound "on" trips, and 1.1 percent of all westbound day had 90 riders on vehicles at the eastern end of "off" trips.

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