Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 1St to 10Th May 2021

REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL

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ONACC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 79

Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 1st to 10th May 2021

st 1 May 2021

© NOCC May 2021, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC).

Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. MEKA ZE Philemon Raissa, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law.

I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°79 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El- Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 1st to 10th May 2021. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 21st to 30th April 202 1. This dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021 will be characterized by the action of the Harmattan in the Sudano-Sahelian zone and the influence of the Monsoon over the rest of the national territory.

II. Forecast Summary II.1. For Temperatures II.1.1. Maximum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Tibati and Mbakaou, in the Adamawa Region; - Mbalmayo, Yaounde, Eseka, Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Nkoteng and Ngoro, in the Centre Region; - Yokadouma, Doume, Batouri, Mindourou, Lomie, Bertoua, Mintoum, Mbalam, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla and Belabo, in the East Region; - Munkep, Furu Awa and Ako, in the North West Region; NB1: This dekad from the 1st to 10th May 2021 will be marked by significant risks of heat waves (number of successive days with temperatures above 30°C) in many localities in the North Region (Guider, Dembo, Garoua, Pita, Lagdo, Rey-Bouba, Tcholliré, Poli and Touboro), Far North Region (Makary, Kousseri, Waza, Mora, Maga, Bogo, Maroua, Mindif, Kaele, Gamboura and Yagoua). II.1.2. Minimum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Gamboura, Maroua, Mora and Waza, in the Far North Region; - Poli, Touboro and Tchollire, in the North Region; - Ngaou Mbol, Kognoli, Kongolo, Yimbere, Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga, in the Adamawa Region; - Betare-Oya and Garoua-Boulai, in the East Region; - Lolodorf, in the South Region; - Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda and Bafang, in the West Region; - Nkambe, Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Bamenda and Santa in the North West Region. NB2: This dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021 will be marked by an increase in the number of days with cold nights in some localities of the Far North (Waza, Maroua and Mora), North (Poli, Touboro and Tchollire), Adamawa (Yimbere, Ngaou Mbol, Kognoli, Kongolo, Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga), East (Mbitom, Betare-Oya and Garoua-Boulai), the South (Lolodorf), the West (Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda and Bafang) and the North West (Nkambe, Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Bamenda and Santa) regions.

II.2. For Precipitation The period from 1st to 10th May 2021 will be marked by a general increase in rainfall amounts in the Guinean High Savannah Zone. However, it will be more significant in the eastern and western parts of the zone. In addition, an increase in rainfall amounts will also be registered in the Bimodal Rainfall Forest Zone as well as in the Monomodal Rainfall Forest Zone. However, a general decrease in rainfall amounts will be registered in the Highlands Zone.

NB3: This dekad, from 1st to 10th May 2021 corresponds to

- the continuation of the short rainy season in the Bimodal rainfall forest zone (Centre, South and East regions);

- the continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North West regions) and in the Monomodal rainfall forest zone (Littoral and

South West regions).

-the extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions).

st th NB 4: This dekad from 1 to 10 May 2021 is favourable for the continuation of sowing in the Guinean High Savannah Zone, Adamawa Region.

2 III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 1st to 10th May 2021

1) For precipitation

For the dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021, we expect: a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone Sporadic rains in the southern part of the North Region. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone Rainfall amounts above those recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021. However, they will be heavier in the eastern (Meiganga, Kongolo and Kognoli) and western (Banyo, Nassarao, Yimbere, Tignere) parts of the zone. (a) (b) c) In the Bimodal rainfall forest zone - Above average rainfall amounts recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021 in Bafia, Obala, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Yoko, Yaounde, Eseka and Mbalmayo; below average in Ngoro, Nkoteng, Mbandjock and Akonolinga in the Centre Region; - above average rainfall amounts recorded from 21st to 30th April 2021 in Sangmelima, Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Djoum, Campo, Akom II and Zoetele; around average in Nyabizan Kribi and Ambam in the South Region - above average rainfall amounts recorded from 21st to 30th April 2021 in Moloundou, Ngoyla, Mintom II , Mindourou, Garoua- Boulai, Lomie, Bertoua, Betare-Oya, Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) compared to that recorded during the period April 21-30, 2021 (a) Yokadouma, Abong -Mbang and Belabo; around average in Batouri, in the East Source: NOCC, May 2021 Region. d) In the High plateaux zone - below average rainfall amounts recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021 in Bafoussam, Dschang, Mbouda, NB 5: For the dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021, we expect: Bangangte, Foumbot, Massagam, Bare- - a continuation of the short rainy season in the Bimodal Rainfall Bakem, Koutaba, Tonga, Foumban, Makam Forest Zone (Centre, South and East Regions); and Bazou in the West Region; - a continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands Zone (West - below average rainfall amounts recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021 and North-West Regions) and the Monomodal Rainfall Forest in Ndop, Furu Awa, Fungom, Ako, Kumbo, Zone (Littoral and South-West Regions) the Guinean High Ndu, Fundong, Munkep, Bali, Santa, Wum, Savannah Zone (Adamawa Region); Benakuma and an increase in Nwa in the - an extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian Zone (Far North West Region. North and North Regions). e) In the Mono-modal rainfall forest zone - a general increase in rainfall amounts compared to those recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021. Rainfall amounts will be significant in Kumba, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, Munyenge, Muyuka, Mundemba, Bamusso, Idenau, Dikome Balue, Mamfe and Fontem; below average in Eyumojock in the South West Region; -above average rainfall amounts recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021 in Yabassi, Nkondjock, Manjo, Nkongsamba, Dibombari, Edea, Loum, Melong, Mbanga, Penja, Douala, Mouanko and Dizangue in the Littoral Region. 3

2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures -around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Koutaba, Foumban, Foumbot, Bazou, Tonga Based on the historical mean of maximum temperatures recorded and Makam; below the historical mean in Bafoussam, Dschang, Mbouda, Bangangte and Massagam in during this dekad over the period from 1979 to 2018, notably the West Region; 39.85°C in the Far North Region; 37.65°C in the North Region; - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Idenau, Eyumojock, Ekok and Bamusso; 34.6°C in the Adamawa Region; 29.6°C in the Centre Region; below the historical mean in Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Nguti, Ekondo Titi, Fontem, Buea, Bakogo, 30.9°C in the South Region; 31.8°C in the East Region; 27.9°C in Mundemba, Tiko, Limbe, Kumba and Mamfe in the South West Region; the West Region; 27.9°C in the North-West Region; 29.6°C in the - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Loum, Baptek Ndokama, Yabassi, South-West Region and 29.1°C in the Littoral Region, for the Nkondjock, Manjo, Nkongsamba, Mouanko, Melong, Mbanga, Penja, Douala, Dizangue, Dibombari st th dekad from 1 to 10 May 2021, we expect maximum and Edea in the Littoral Region. temperatures: - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Maroua, Mora, Mokolo, Kousseri, Yagoua, Kaele, Maga, Bogo, Waza and Mindif; below the historical mean in Makary in the Far North Region; - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Pitoa, Lagdo, Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Guider, Poli, Touboro and Dembo; below the historical mean in Garoua in the North Region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ngaoundal, Tibati, and Mbakaou; below the historical mean in Meiganga, Kongolo, Tignere and Ngaoundere; around the historical mean in Banyo and Yimbere in the Adamawa Region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mbalmayo, Bafia, Eseka, Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Nanga (a) (b) Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng and Ngoro; around the historical mean in Yoko and Yaounde in the Centre Region; - below the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Garoua- Boulai and Betare-Oya; above the mean in Yokadouma, Batouri, Mindourou, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Doume, Mintom, Mbalam and Belabo; around the historical mean in Moloundou, Kika and Mambele in the East Region; - below the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Nyabizan, Akom II, Campo and Lolodorf, around the historical mean in Kribi, Ebolowa, Ambam, Sangmelima, Djoum and Zoetele in the South Region; - below the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bali, Santa, Benakuma, Ndop, Fungom, Kumbo, Ndu, Fundong; around the historical mean in Munkep, Furu-Awa, Nwa and Wum, above the historical mean in Audu and Ako in the North West Region; Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018; (a) (Source: NOCC, May 2021)

Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021 in recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021, for the dekad from 1st Bamenda, Benakuma, Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Ndop, Wum and Nwa in the North West to 10th May 2021, we expect maximum temperatures: Region; - around the mean for the dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021 in Waza, st th - below the mean recorded during the dekad from 21 to 30 April 2021 in Foumban; Kousseri, Mindif, Mora, Makary, Maroua, Mokolo, Bogo, Maga, around the mean in Bangangte, Foumbot, Bare-Bakem, Bafoussam, Bamendjing, Yagoua and Kaele in the Far North Region; Dschang, Magba, Bafang, Bazou, Mbouda, Tonga and Makam, in the West Region. - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021 in Rey-Bouba, Tchollire, Garoua, Dembo, Lagdo, and Pitoa; below the mean in Poli and Touboro in the North Region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021 in Ngaoundal, Mbe, Kognoli, Banyo, Tignere, Mbakaou and Tibati; below the mean in Dota, Ngaoundere, Meiganga, Kongolo and Yimbere in the Adamawa Region; - around the mean recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021 in Lomie, Abong-Mbang, Belabo, Ngoyla, Moloundou, Yokadouma, Mindourou, Batouri and Bertoua; below the mean in Betare-Oya, Garoua-Boulai in the East Region; st th - around the mean recorded in the dekad from 21 to 30 April 2021 (a) in Ngoro, Eseka, Deuk, Akonolinga, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, (b) Mbandjock, Messondo, Nkoteng, Bafia, Mbalmayo and Obala; below the mean in Yaounde and Yoko in the Centre Region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021 in Zoetele, Djoum, Kribi, Minkoumou, Ebolowa, Lolodorf, and Ambam; below the mean in Sangmelima, Nyabizan, Akom II and Campo in the South Region; - around the mean recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021 in Bamusso, Eyumojock, Mamfe, Fontem, Ekok and Buea; below the mean in Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Nguti, Ekondo Titi, Kumba, Ekang, Idenau, Mundemba, Tiko and Limbe in the South West Region; - around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th April 2021 in Melong,

Nkongsamba, Pouma, Manjo, Mbanga, Ngambe, Yingui, Ndom, Figure 3: Variation in average maximum temperatures for the dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021 (b) compared Dizangue, Yabassi, Douala, Nyanon, Edea, Ndokama, Loum and to those recorded for the dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021 (a). Mouanko in the Littoral Region; Source: NOCC, May 2021

Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in maximum temperatures compared to their historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: -Tibati and Mbakaou in the Adamawa Region; -Mbalmayo, Yaounde, Eseka, Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Nkoteng and Ngoro in the

Centre Region;

-Yokadouma, Doume, Batouri, Mindourou, Lomie, Bertoua, Koso, Mintoum, Mbalam, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla and Belabo in the East Region; -Munkep, Furu Awa and Ako, in the North West Region.

b) For Minimum Temperatures - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ako, Munkep and Furu Awa; around Based on the historical average of minimum temperatures the historical mean in Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Bamenda, Ndop, Wum and Benakuma in the North recorded from 1979 to 2018, notably 26.6°C in the Far North West Region; Region; 27°C in the North Region; 17.8°C in the Adamawa -above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ekang, Idenau, and Eyumojock; Region; 20.7°C in the Centre Region; 20.26°C in the South below the historical mean in Dikome Bafaw around the historical mean in Tiko, Mundemba, Region; 20.2°C in the East Region; 17.24°C in the West Region; Dikome Balue, Bamusso, Limbe, Buea, Mamfe and Kumba in the South West Region; 17.12°C in the North-West Region; 21.41°C in the South-West -above the historical mean recorded for the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Mouanko, around st Region and 22.1°C in the Littoral Region, for the dekad from 1 the historical mean in Nokama and Baptek, Douala, Edea, Manjo, Mbanga, Penja, Nkongsamba th to 10 May 2021, we expect minimum temperatures: and Loum in the Littoral Region.

-below the historical mean during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Mokolo, Waza and Mora; around the historical mean in Makari, Kousseri, Maroua, Kaele, Maga, Mindif and Yagoua in the Far North Region; -around the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Pitoa, Garoua, Guider, Rey Bouba, Dembo and Lagdo; below the historical mean in Poli, Touboro and Tchollire in the North Region; -below the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga; around the historical mean in Banyo; above the historical mean in Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou in the (a) Adamawa Region; (b) -above the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Monatele, Ayos, Eseka, Yoko, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Bafia, Obala, Mbalmayo and Yaounde; around the historical mean in Ngambe Tikar in the Centre Region; -around the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Mintoum; above the historical mean in Moloundou, Mindourou, Abong-Mbang, Bertoua, Ngoyla, Belabo, Lomie and Batouri; below the historical mean in Betare Oya and Garoua-Boulai in the East Region; -above the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Kribi, Campo, Zoetele, Djoum, Minkoumou and Ebolowa; around the historical mean in Nyabizan, Akom II, Lolodorf and Ambam in the South Region;

-around the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to Figure 4: Variation in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (1-10 May 2021) (b) 2018 in Dschang, Bafoussam, Bafang, Mbouda, Tonga, compared to historical averages from 1979 to 2018 (a). Source: NOCC, May 2021 Bamendjing and Bazou; above the historical mean in Foumbot, Makam, Magba, Bangangte and Foumban in the West Region; 7 Based on the difference between the average minimum -around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th April 2021 in Tiko, Muyuka, Idenau, Bamusso, st th Mundemba, Kumba, Mamfe, Buea, Eyumojock and Nguti in the South West Region. temperatures recorded during the dekad from 21 to 30 April 2021, for the dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021, we expect minimum temperatures: -around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th April 2021 in Mindif, Yagoua, Makari, Maroua, Bogo, Kaele, Maga, Kousseri, Waza, Mora and Mokolo in the Far North Region; -around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th April 2021 in Dembo, Guider, Pitoa, Lagdo, Poli, Rey Bouba, Tchollire and Touboro in the North Region; -around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th April 2021 in Kongolo, Dota, Kognoli, Ngaou Mbol, Mbakaou, Tibati, Tignere, Banyo, Meiganga and Ngaoundere in the Adamawa Region; -below the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021 in Yaounde, Obala, Mbalmayo, Nkoteng, Nanga Eboko and Mbandjock; around the mean in Ngambe Tikar, Bafia, Monatele, (a) (b) Ngoro, Akonolinga, Yoko and Eseka in the Centre Region; -around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th April 2021 in Moloundou, Betare Oya, Garoua-Boulai, Abong-Mbang, Mindourou, Belabo, Batouri, Bertoua, Lomie, Ngoyla and Yokadouma in the East Region; -around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th April 2021 in Ebolowa, Djoum, Ambam, Campo, Kribi, Akom II, Sangmelima, Lolodorf and Zoetele in the South Region; -around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th April 2021 in Dschang, Bazou, Bangangte, Bamendjing, Magba, Bafoussam, Bafang, Foumban, Mbouda, Tonga, Makam and Foumbot in the West Region; -around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th April 2021 in Fundong, Kumbo, Benakuma, Santa, Ndop, Nwa, Bamenda, Munkep, Ako and Wum in the North West Region -around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th April 2021 in Figure 4: Variations in minimum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those Mouanko, Douala, Loum, Penja, Melong, Nkongsamba, Manjo recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th April 2021 (a). and Yabassi; below the mean in Ndokama, Edea and Dizangue in Source: NOCC, May 2021 the Littoral Region; 8

Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021, particular attention should be paid to the localities that have a very high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to its historical values for the same period from 1979 to 2018, which could lead to cold nights. They include:

-Gamboura, Maroua, Mora and Waza in the Far North Region; -Poli, Touboro and Tchollire in the North Region;

-Ngaou Mbol, Kognoli, Kongolo, Yimbere, Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga in the Adamawa Region; -Betare-Oya and Garoua-Boulai in the East Region; -Lolodorf in the South Region; -Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda and Bafang in the West Region; -Nkambe, Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Bamenda and Santa in the North West Region.

IV. Risks and potential impacts on socio-economic sectors

a) In the agricultural sector: • an increase in pastoralist-farmer conflicts and conflicts between pastoralists around A high risk of recording cases of: water points, plains and lowlands in the Far North, and North regions; • increased bush fires due to the dry season combined with the effect of dry winds and high • a scarcity of pasture and wate r resources in the Far North, and North regions. temperatures, resulting in the destruction of fields in the Far North, North and the northern part of the Adamawa regions; d) In the water and energy sector:

• water stress, for vegetable and food crops in the Far North, North and the northern part of A high risk of recording: • a continuous drying up of water supply points due to drought and a continuous decrease in the Adamawa regions following the accentuation of the dryness; • increased attacks on cereal crops by insect pests in the Far North, North and the North the water table in the Far North and North Regions; - a high risk of recording a decrease in the volume of water in dams, water collection and region s. -destruction of plantations in many localities in the Centre, East, South, South-West, Littoral, treatment points in the Far North and North Regions; West and North-West Regions, due to heavy rains accompanied by strong winds. - a high risk of falling electricity poles due to strong winds in the Bimodal Rainfall Forest Zone, the Monomodal Rainfall Forest Zone and the Highlands Zone. NB 6: This period is suitable for the continuation of sowing in the Guinean High Savannah -a risk of contamination of groundwater, surface water and water catchment points by polluted Zone. runoff in the bimodal rainfall forest zone, the monomodal rainfall forest zone and the Highlands zone. b) In the health sector: A risk of recording cases of: e) In the environment and biodiversity sector: • meningococcal meningitis, due to the severe dry season in the Far North, North and the A high risk of recording numerous cases of: northern part of the Adamawa regions, coupled with the increased dust in the air; - bush fires in many localities in the Far North and North Regions; • water-borne diseases (typhoid, yeasts, amoebiasis, dysentery, etc.), following the scarcity and / - poaching in areas close to protected areas due to wildlife roaming outside reserves in search or poor quality of drinking water, in the 05 Agro-ecological Zones; of water and food, in the Far North and North Regions; • respiratory diseases (flu epidemic, cough, bronchitis, colds, asthma attacks, etc.), following the - conflict between populations and certain wildlife species (Elephants, Lions etc.) in search dust increasingly present in the air in the Far North, North and the northern part of the of water and food, in the Far North and North Regions. Adamawa regions; A high risk of observing morning fog with a consequent high risk of traffic accidents in many • conjunctivitis due to the combined effect of heat, wind and dust in the air in the Far North, localities in the Centre, South and East Regions (bimodal rainfall forest zone), West and North and the northern part of the Adamawa regions; north-west (Highlands zone) and South-West (monomodal rainfall forest zone). • general pathologies, due to the heat for people suffering from hypertension, obesity, women in - A high risk of recording cases of floods in some localities in the Centre and South Regions menopause, people with diabetics, in the 05 Agro-ecological zones. (Bimodal rainfall forest zone), the North-West and West Regions ( Highlands zone), the • multiplication of malaria vector mosquitoes, in the. 05 Agro-ecological zones. Littoral and South-West Regions ( Monomodal Rainfall Forest Zone); - A high risk of recording cases of landslides in some localities in the North-West and West c) For the livestock sector Regions (Highlands Zone), Littoral and South-West Regions (Monomodal Rainfall Forest A high risk of recording cases of: Zone). • a massive migration of transhumant herders in search of water points and pasture in the Far North, North regions; f) In the defence and security sector: • numerous cases of epizootics due to the cold prevailing in certain localities like Gamboura, A risk of recording cases of: Maroua,Mora and Waza in the Far North Region, Poli, Touboro and Tchollire in the North - conflicts between cattle rearers and farmers in their search for water sources and food in Region, Kognoli, Kongolo, Yimbere, Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga in the the Far North and North regions. Adamawa Region; Betare-Oya and Garoua-Boulai in the East Region, Lolodorf in the South - Cases of conflict between populations of the Far North and North regions, for access to Region, Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda and Bafang in the West Region and Bali, Ndop, limited water resources for various purposes (consumption, irrigation, watering etc.). Fundong, Bamenda and Santa in the North West Region;

st th VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the dekad from 21 to 30 April 2021

High Guinean Mono-modal Rainfall Agro Ecological zones Sudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rainfall forest High plateau Savannah Forest Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre South West North West South West Littoral Minimum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 27 27 23 19 19 21,33 17,37 17 21,71 22

Trend forecasts ≈ Success rates of Forecasts (%) 86 83,2 87 80 83,5 85,1 83 87,5 84,2 84 Maximum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 39,72 39,86 35,34 30,47 29 29,85 27,48 27,7 29,5 29 Trend forecasts Forecasts success rates (%) 88 87,5 85 88 87,4 86,8 85,1 87 88,1 85,2 Precipitation Historic mean from 1979 to 0-60 61-81 82-101 102-121 122-200 201-210 211-240 241-260 261-300 301-350 2018(mm) Trend forecasts ≈ ≈

Forecasts success rates (%) 100 100 98 100 100 100 98,6 100 100 100

Around the mean ≈ ; = Reduction; = Increase

VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period to:

In the health sector, continue to Plan agricultural activities, especially in the sowing season by referring to the agricultural calendar developed by NOCC for the 2021 agricultural campaign.

In the health sector, continue to ▪ raise public awareness to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (wash hands regularly, wash food items, filter drinking water before consumption in households, use latrines, avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings, the population is strongly encouraged to drink warm water, etc.); ▪ avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings; ▪ dress warmly in localities experiencing decreased minimum temperatures during this period; ▪ encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets; ▪ strengthen community surveillance at the level of rural health centres to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases of diseases. ▪ continue vaccination campaigns against various epidemics and pandemics.

In the water and energy sector, to carry out: ▪ regular sampling, analysis and treatment of drinking water at catchment points and water supply points before distribution to households; ▪ regular use of basic techniques (decanting, boiling, etc.) to make drinking water potable at household level; ▪ the replacement of defective (wooden) electricity poles.

For more information, contact, www.onacc.cm P.O. Box: 35414 House no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237) 222-209-504/222-209-500 e-mail: [email protected]