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Business Trends 2014 Navigating the Next Wave of Globalization Navigating the Next Wave of Globalization

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Business Trends 2014 Navigating the Next Wave of Globalization Navigating the Next Wave of Globalization Business Trends 2014 Navigating the next wave of globalization Navigating the next wave of globalization Contents Preface | 2 Introduction | 3 Navigating the next wave of globalization Section 1: New consumers | 12 Another billion | 17 Business and social impact | 27 City planet | 37 Section 2: New collaborations | 48 Innovation from everywhere | 53 Social business, global business | 65 Anticipatory supply chains | 77 Section 3: New leadership | 86 Giants, old and new | 91 CFO as chief frontier officer | 103 The C-suite: Time for version 3.0? | 113 Author bios | 124 Acknowledgements and special thanks | 130 1 Business Trends 2014 Preface ELCOME to Deloitte Consulting LLP’s second annual Business Trends report. The purpose of Wthese reports is straightforward: to provide business leaders with clear, concise, and well- informed perspectives on important dynamics that are currently reshaping the business environ- ment. This year we have selected nine trends, all directly related to a major question many clients have been asking us recently: What is going on with the global economy? Sadly, we don’t have a crystal ball, and we can’t predict the future. But we do have the privilege of serving clients who are creating the future; almost 200,000 talented colleagues globally who are helping them, including many outstanding thought leaders; privileged access to some of the best minds on the planet; relentless curiosity; and a commitment to intellectual integrity and rigor. We have drawn upon all of these in the creation of this report—along with a survey of more than 400 senior executives from around the world. There are many critical uncertainties in the global economy today. The challenging recovery from the financial crisis and subsequent recession in the developed economies, the current slow- down of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) economies, mounting geopolitical tensions, and the continuing rise of “back-door” protectionism are among the more obvious sources of con- fusion—and concern. We are committed to tracking and anticipating the consequences of these and other forces on behalf of our clients. But in this report, we have identified key trends that are firmly rooted in longer-term and prob- ably irreversible shifts. Over the last 15 years or so, the balance of the global economy has funda- mentally changed. The distinction between a “developed” and an “undeveloped” world has blurred, as “emerging” nations have very much emerged. The global distribution of wealth that had been diverging since the Industrial Revolution has started to converge again. Stark differences still exist, of course, but the old order is rapidly dissolving—along with many previously safe assumptions about the global business environment. The trends in this report fall into three distinct categories: the emergence of a large, new, and unfamiliar consuming class; increased opportunities for collaboration with newly empowered and influential actors; and new sources—and imperatives—of leadership. Some combination of these trends will increasingly influence the strategic priorities of most companies. We sincerely hope that our perspectives are helpful as you develop your own approaches to . “Navigating the next wave of globalization.” Mike Canning Eamonn Kelly Principal and National Managing Director Director and Chief Marketing Officer Strategy & Operations Strategy & Operations Deloitte Consulting LLP Deloitte Consulting LLP 2 Navigating the next wave of globalization Introduction Navigating the next wave of globalization By Eamonn Kelly LOBALIZATION —broadly defined as increasing worldwide integration and interdependence, Gbased on the flow across national borders of goods, services, capital, people, ideas, cultures, and values—has been an enduring driver of change and development. While the overall trajec- tory of increased worldwide engagement and interaction has been sustained over many hundreds of years, the process has not been smooth or continuous. A hundred years ago, in the buildup to World War I, many decades of global economic integration—sometimes referred to as the “Golden Age”—were rapidly reversed: Meaningful globalization did not resume for around 40 years. Most senior leaders today cut their managerial teeth during a period of deep and rapid global integration. From around 1980, and for almost three decades, global trade increased at about 7 percent per annum on average—twice the rate of growth of global GDP.1 This extraordinary dynamic was empowered by the interplay of three key factors: falling transportation costs coupled with increasingly efficient logistics; radically faster, better, and cheaper communications, including the rise of the Internet from the mid-1990s; and increasingly supportive policy regimes, especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Despite growing resistance in some quarters to the impacts of globalization—especially related to charges of growing inequality and the exploitation of people and the environment—a strong consensus emerged in the worlds of policy, economics, and business regarding both its “rightness” and its apparent inevitability. But today, serious and legitimate ques- tions are again being posed regarding the future of globalization. The widely respected chief international economist of Morgan Stanley, Joachim Fels, recently put forward a “tentative thesis” that 2013 might prove analogous in some respects to 1913. He points to the rush of liquidity into emerging markets (fueled by Western monetary policies after the 2008 financial crisis)—a trend that is now clearly reversing—and the recently growing evidence that many Western companies are repatriating parts of their production processes.2 However, these are not the only reasons to question the current status of globalization. In 2009, following the financial crisis and during the consequent recession, global trade plum- meted, and while it has subsequently bounced back, it has not been increasing much faster than global GDP—far below the long-standing trend line. Capital flows have decreased even more substantially, and have still not returned to their pre-financial-crisis levels. While there has been no significant resurgence in traditional tariff-based protectionist measures, less blatant impedi- ments to free trade have been growing: A recent report by Global Trade Alert identified 431 new 3 Business Trends 2014 Introduction “backdoor” protectionist moves—in a single consequential BRIC economies are gain- one-year period.3 China, India, and others are ing support as each shows signs of weakness becoming increasingly important rule- and along with a recent slowdown in growth. The norm-makers, not simply takers—notably in short-term impact on some emerging-market industries such as life sciences, where they are economies of the US Federal Reserve’s immi- actively challenging Western intellectual prop- nent “tapering” of asset purchases could prove erty and pricing standards. The United States, highly disruptive. motivated by security concerns, has blocked Given these clear indications of uncertainty recent market entry attempts by Chinese and possible disruption ahead, it would be companies.4 Notwithstanding the modest suc- foolish indeed to predict a single scenario for cess of the December 2013 Bali summit of the the future of the global economy. Yet business World Trade Organization’s (WTO’s) Doha leaders must continue to act with conviction, round of trade liberalization reforms, most even in an era of growing complexity and dis- trade agreements in recent years have been ruption. The opportunities and challenges are regional or “preferential” rather than global. too great to adopt a “wait and see” stance. Bearish scenarios for the future of the hugely Figure 1. Percentage of world GDP, 1820–2008 4 Navigating the next wave of globalization The purpose of this report is to inform and invention were widely distributed—and such action through the identification of Europe was, since the fall of the Roman Empire important and robust trends that will certainly in the eighth century, a relative backwater: matter for years to come—in all but the most violent, divided, and fragmented. But that extremely catastrophic scenarios for the future continent was entering a period of “renais- of globalization. sance” and would soon drive the creation of Two critical and related foundations under- the modern world. pin most of these trends. First, the center of In the 18th century, Europe was gravity for the world economy has obviously home to the twin forces of modernity— shifted profoundly over the last 20 years, blur- the Enlightenment and the Industrial ring the previously stark distinction between Revolution—and a remarkable period of global the developed (primarily Western) economies transformation followed. Europe—followed and what was until relatively recently described by North America—enjoyed astounding levels as “ROW”—the entirety of the rest of the of economic growth and separated rapidly world. Second, this rebalancing of economic from the rest of the world. Economic historian might is inevitably creating a far more complex Angus Maddison obtained telling data from and diverse environment for business. The his research, represented in figure 1. “next wave of globalization” includes powerful This massive divergence of “developed” new actors, and it is multipolar, not a straight- and “less developed” economies continued forward rollout of Western practices, stan- throughout the 20th century, leading to a dards, and values. growing
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