Unitas Consultancy (A GLOBAL CAPITAL PARTNERS GROUP COMPANY) Q3 2014
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
Dubai: The Real Estate Value Guide
This document is provided by Unitas Consultancy solely for the use by its clients. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribu on outside the organiza on without prior wri en approval.
1 Office No. 103, The Palladium, Plot No. C3, Jumeriah Lake Towers, Dubai, UAE, [email protected] Table of Contents
A) Past Predic on Analysis…………………………………………………..…………………………………………………….…....4
B) Past Performance Community-wise …………………………………………….………………….…………………….……9
C) Performance Indicators…………………………….……………………………………………………………………………….14
D) What is the Trade?...... …………………………………………………………………………………………………………..19
E) Summary...... ………………………..…………………………………………………………………………………………………..25
2 Execu ve Summary 1. A number of forecasts made have borne fruit, indica ng the shi in Dubai’s economic and real estate topography as the market enters a phase known as the “New Normal”. This calls into ques on as to whether Dubai is embarking on a fresh upward price cycle having scaled the peaks of 2008. In par cular, the mid income segment has outperformed the higher end of the market in the residen al sphere, and free zone offices have done comparably be er than those domiciled in the DED.
2. A detailed valua on analysis of the market metrics reveal that these trends are expected to con nue. End users are likely to dominate the stable community sectors (some of which may be rela vely overpriced), and on a rela ve standpoint, the analysis reveals that apartment units (par cularly in the affordable range) are expected to outperform the villa segment.
3. The visibility of upcoming supply remains opaque; what is apparent however, is that supply remains concentrated at the higher end of the price range, opening up opportuni es at the lower end of the spectrum. As the build phase becomes increasingly clear in the coming months, we expect that this gap will be filled (recent evidence indicates that this process is already underway as evidenced by recent announcements by Tasweek offering the most economically priced townhouses in the freehold space). We opine that this trend will con nue.
4. Yields are expected to be at the forefront of expected returns, especially in an environment of rising rates as expected by the vast majority of economists in 2015 a rela ve rental yield analysis, (especially in light of the expected job crea on engine that is currently in force in Dubai) reinforces our predic on of apartments outperforming villas on a rela ve basis in the next 12-18 months. In par cular, there appears to be a shortage in the 2-3 bedroom segment.
3 Past Predic on Analysis
“However beau ful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results” - Winston Churchill
4 “Dubai’s Road to Prosperity” - Feb 2013
Predic on Result
“We believe that prices in Jumeirah Lake Towers will Community Price Apprecia on increasingly outperform the Dubai Marina as mean (Jan 2013-July 2014) reversion takes effect” JLT 60% Dubai Marina 56% reidin.com
Community Price Apprecia on “Emirates Living area appears to be undervalued on (Jan 2013-July 2014) a rela ve basis to Arabian Ranches” Springs / Meadows 21% Arabian Ranches 19% reidin.com “Dubai: The City is Built Upon It’s Commerce” – Mar 2013
Predic on Result
“The low levels of new supply introduced in Community Price Apprecia on the Free Zone markets coupled with their (Jan 2013-July 2014) superior growth rate will be the catalyst in driving JLT (Free zone) 68% prices up in these areas” Business Bay (DED) 56% reidin.com 5 “Dubai: If you Build it; They Will Come” - Sep 2013
Predic on Result
Avg No. Monthly % “We believe that the overall rise in Dubai Jan-Oct 2013 Nov-July 2013 rents have resulted in migratory effect Mortgages Increase reloca ng people from the Sheikh Zayed Road Sports City 13 13 - to more affordable areas on Muhammad bin Motor City 20 30 50% Zayed Road. We expect to see a higher rate of homeownership in these areas” JVC 11 18 63% reidin.com
“Communi es such as Sports City, Dubai Community Price Apprecia on Silicon Oasis, and Jumeriah Village will start to (Jan 2013-July 2014) gain momentum as their infrastructure near Dubai (City-wide) 50% comple on thus converging with the more Sports City 44% established communi es, whilst prices in DSO 58% Jumeirah Golf Estates appeared to have overshot to the upside, rela ve to the JVC 60% infrastructure development.” Jumeirah Golf 18% Estates reidin.com
6 “Dubai: A Closer Look into 2013” - Feb 2014
Predic on Result “As Dubai starts to roll out supply in 2014 to meet the growing demand we can see that Community Price Apprecia on new units are skewed towards villas than (Jan 2013-July 2014) apartments, especially in the prime segment. This Apartments 50% imbalance of supply will likely lead to Villas 28% tapering of prices in the villa segment, whilst reidin.com demand for apartments will con nue to grow especially in the affordable housing segment, as it accounts for 43% of the popula on”
“Dubai: Buy Land Where the City Ends” - Mar 2014
Predic on Result
“Similar pa erns can be witnessed in Dubai as well; land prices outperformed Residen al units Community Price Apprecia on (Jan 2014-July 2014) by as much as 140% in the last 10 years. With the increased emphasis on “urbaniza on”, the Residen al - City 16% pressure to develop land will only accelerate, Wide leading to further upward pressure on land prices Land Price – City 24% as Dubai marches forward to achieving its goal of Wide having 20 million tourists and a popula on of 3.5 reidin.com million” 7 “Dubai: The Trophy Buying Phenomena” – Apr 2014
Predic on Result
“This mismatch in supply dynamics has lead to the YTD Price YTD Rental Total Return Rank Community mid-income housing to have superior growth Growth Return YTD rates rela ve to the rest of the segments in the Interna onal 1 last 6 months. Un l incremental supply is not City 20% 5% 25% Housing
added we opine that the mid-income segment Affordable 2 Sports City 18% 4% 22% will con nue to outpace the trophy and high- Palm 3 income communi es in terms of growth rates. Jumeirah 19% 2% 21% Trophy
The major beneficiaries of this price-ac on will be Proper es 4 Downtown 9% 3% 12% DSO, Interna onal City, IMPZ, Sports City and reidin.com Discovery Gardens” “Dubai: The Road Ahead” - May 2014
Predic on Result
“Prices have empirically tended to follow 350 Transac ons Dubai 2,500 transac onal ac vity with a lag, implying that the 300 Price have begun to taper 2,000 la er has been a leading indicator. Dubai has a 250 moderately strong correla on of +0.52 between 200 1,500 the two variables” 150 Transac ons have begun to fall 1,000 100 500 50 0 -
8 Jul 2008 Jul 2013 Jan 2011 Jan 2006 Jun 2006 Jun 2011 Oct 2009 Apr 2007 Apr 2012 Feb 2008 Sep 2007 Feb 2013 Sep 2012 Dec 2008 Dec 2013 Aug 2010 Nov 2006 Nov 2011 Mar 2010 May 2009 May 2014 Q2 Performance Quarterly Update
“Performance stands out like a ton of diamonds. Non-performance can always be explained away” - Harold S Geneen
9 Dubai Real-Estate Cycle Bull or Bear Cycle? 1600 reidin.com
1400 1st Cycle 2nd Cycle
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200 +5 years +5 years 0 Jul 2005 Jul 2007 Jul 2008 Jul 2009 Jul 2011 Jul 2003 Jul 2004 Jul 2006 Jul 2010 Jul 2012 Jul 2013 Jul 2014 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Oct 2003 Oct 2004 Oct 2005 Oct 2006 Oct 2007 Oct 2008 Oct 2009 Oct 2010 Oct 2011 Oct 2012 Oct 2013 Apr 2005 Apr 2007 Apr 2008 Apr 2009 Apr 2011 Apr 2003 Apr 2004 Apr 2006 Apr 2010 Apr 2012 Apr 2013 Apr 2014
Since the crea on of freehold in 2002 the Dubai real-estate market has witnessed two complete cycles, and is arugingly entering its third. Although, the direc on of the this cycle s ll remains ambiguous, we explore mul ple indicators that help predict the future outcome, whilst assessing past performances of individual communi es.
10 Community-Wise YTD Investor Return
YTD Price Half Yearly Rental Rank Community Total Return YTD Apprecia on Return 1 Interna onal City 20% 5% 25% 2 Sports City 18% 4% 22% 3 Palm Jumeirah 19% 2% 21% 4 JLT 17% 4% 21% 5 Greens 17% 4% 21% 6 Dubai Marina 16% 3% 19%
Apartments 7 Discovery Gardens 13% 4% 17% 8 Jumeirah Park 10% 3% 13% 9 Downtown 9% 3% 12% 10 IMPZ 5% 4% 9% 11 Motor City 5% 4% 9% 12 Arabian Ranches 5% 3% 8% 13 Springs / Meadows 5% 3% 8%
Villas 14 Jumeirah Islands 5% 2% 7%
15 Jumeirah Golf Estates -2% 2% 0% reidin.com In the first half of 2014, apartment communi es exhibited greater capital apprecia on along with rental returns rela ve to villa communi es. Within in the apartment spectrum, mid-income communi es have outperformed the market being led by Interna onal City giving an annualized return of 50%. 11 Q2-Capital Apprecia on Performance Results
Q1-2014 Q2-2014 Rank Community QoQ Δ AED/SQFT AED/SQFT 1 Interna onal City 677 747 10% 2 Sports City 881 996 10% 3 Dubai Marina 1655 1780 8% 4 JLT 1274 1370 8% 5 Greens 1426 1528 7% 6 DSO 848 891 5% 7 Jumeirah Park 1266 1323 5% 8 Discovery Gardens 856 893 4% 9 Palm Jumeirah 1812 1882 4% 11 Jumeirah Islands 1687 1727 2% 12 Arabian Ranches 1275 1275 2% 13 Motor City 997 1021 2% 14 Downtown 2491 2548 2% 15 Jumeirah Golf Estates 1652 1672 1% 16 Springs / Meadows 1223 1226 0% 17 IMPZ 996 980 -2% reidin.com A Q-o-Q analysis of capital apprecia on reveals that Interna onal City remains as the best performer on par with Sports City, both experiencing a 10% change. IMPZ is at the bo om of the list and is experiencing nega ve growth, which highlights its over- valua on. 12 Q2-Rental Growth Rate Performance Results
Q1-2014 Q2-2014 Rank Community QoQ Δ Gross Yields Q2 AED/SQFT AED/SQFT 1 Discovery Gardens 64.44 75.84 18% 8.83% 2 Sports City 69.84 76.32 9% 8.20% 3 JLT 97.68 102.48 5% 7.74% 4 Dubai Marina 110.28 114.84 4% 6.65% 5 Jumeirah Islands 60.84 63.12 4% 3.71% 6 Arabian Ranches 75.72 77.52 2% 6.25% 7 Interna onal City 101.04 103.44 2% 9.47% 8 Jumeirah Park 66.48 67.32 1% 5.21% 9 IMPZ 77.76 78.48 1% 8.3% 11 Greens 111.24 111.72 0% 7.56% 12 Motor City 78.24 78.24 0% 7.94% 13 Downtown 136.68 134.64 -1% 5.41% 14 Palm Jumeirah 97.08 95.16 -2% 3.75% 16 Jumeirah Golf Estates 76.08 74.28 -2% 4.54% 17 DSO 75.48 73.56 -3% 8.57% reidin.com A QoQ on rental growth rates shows that there has been a surge in demand for units in Discovery Gardens, thus causing an 18% increase in rental rates. Whereas we have started to see a decline rental prices in Downtown, Palm Jumeriah, Jumeirah Golf Estates and DSO. 13 Performance Indicators
“Big results require big ambi ons.” Heraclitus
14 Indicator: Transac onal Ac vity
Number of Mortgages Number of Cash
Community Q1-Q2 ‘14 Jul ‘13 vs Jul’14 Community Q1-Q2 ‘14 Jul ‘13 vs Jul’14 Arabian Ranches 17% -64% Discovery Gardens 63% -19% Jumeirah Lake Jumeriah Islands 0% -63% QoQ 24% 9% QoQ Towers -7% Dubai Marina -2% -31% -14% Downtown Dubai 12% 21% JVC -3% 1%
Arabian Ranches 7% -40% Dubai Sports City -7% 64%
Dubai Marina -4% -3% Discovery Gardens -11% -31%
Palm Jumeirah -14% -48% IMPZ -12% -22%
Jumeriah Park -15% -28% Palm Jumeirah -14% -48% The Springs and -15% -32% Jumeriah Islands -17% -13% The Meadows YoY YoY Interna onal City -16% -36% -20% Motor City -18% 13% -30% Downtown Dubai -16% -26% JVC -20% 11% The Greens -24% -51% The Greens -24% -45% Jumeriah Park -26% -46% The Springs and -27% -60% Jumeirah Lake The Meadows -35% -52% Towers Dubai Sports City -63% -55% Motor City -40% -17% reidin.com There has been a plunge of an average of 30% in cash transac onal ac vity on a YoY basis (the villa segment being effected the most - 51%). Where as in mortgages there has been an average YOY decline of 21%. 15 Indicator: Velocity
City-Wide Velocity (In monitored Areas) 3.7% reidin.com 3.5% 3.3% Velocity 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2
Community-Wise Velocity 14.0% reidin.com Downtown 12.0% IC 10.0% JLT 8.0% Palm Jumeirah Springs/Meadows 6.0% Jumeirah Park 4.0% Discovery Gardens 2.0% Motor City 0.0% 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2
A velocity analysis of Dubai shows that since the beginning of the year velocity has dropped by 16%, this leads us to believe that Dubai’s overall market has become less specula ve in nature, being driven by a strong investor demand, compared to the ‘flippers’. This is normally a good predictor of certain price pressures to the downside as certain speculators with weak holding capacity resort to “panic” selling
16 Indicator: Q Ra os
Q RATIO = CURRENT VALUE / REPLACEMENT VALUE
Apartments Construction Replacement The Tobin’s Q-Ra o (for which James Rank Community Price Aed/Sqft Land Cost Q-Ratio Cost Cost Tobin won the Nobel Prize for 1 Interna onal City 765 165 300 465 1.6 Economics in 1981), is a valua on tool Discovery that is used to measure an assets 2 913 250 300 550 1.7 Gardens value rela ve to its market value. 3 Dubai Marina 1786 500 550 1050 1.7 When this ra o is applied to Dubai’s 4 JLT 1373 350 450 800 1.7 real-estate we see that Downtown
5 DSO 884 200 300 500 1.8 has a higher Q-Ra o rela ve Interna onal City by 30%. This is 6 Palm Jumeirah 1926 500 550 1050 1.8 perhaps the clearest indicator yet of 7 Greens 1531 350 450 800 1.9 the rela ve overvalua on (of 8 Sports City 980 210 300 510 1.9 approximately as much as 30%) of the trophy property segment. 9 IMPZ 980 200 300 500 2.0
10 Motor City 1013 150 300 450 2.3 However, if mid-income communi es 11 Downtown 2574 550 550 1100 2.3 con nue out-pace Trophy proper es Villas in terms of price ac on, the gap Construction Replacement Rank Community Price Aed/Sqft Land Cost Q-Ratio between the Q-Ra os will decrease Cost Cost making both sectors a rac ve, thus 1 Springs / Meadows 1222 650 450 1100 1.1 the paradox of affordable housing. 2 Arabian Ranches 1318 670 450 1120 1.2 Jumeirah Golf 3 1668 800 450 1250 1.3 Estates 4 Jumeirah Islands 1754 650 450 1100 1.6 5 Jumeirah Park 1321 400 400 800 1.7 17 reidin.com / Unitas Consultancy Rental Yields
Rank Community Gross Yield Q2 Gross Yield Q1 Change 1 Interna onal City 9.47 9.45 0% 2 Discovery Gardens 8.83 8.33 6% 3 DSO 8.57 9.01 -5% 4 Sports City 8.36 8.21 2% Housing Affordable 5 IMPZ 8.3 7.96 4% 6 JVC 8.28 8.55 -3% 7 Motor City 8.09 8.13 0% 8 JLT 7.74 7.94 -3% 9 Greens 7.56 8.08 -6%
High-End 10 Dubai Marina 6.65 6.87 -3% Communi es 11 Springs / Meadows 6.32 6.39 -1% 12 Downtown 5.41 5.66 -4% 13 Jumeriah Golf Estates 4.54 4.7 -3% 14 Palm Jumeruah (Villa) 3.75 4.24 -12% Trophy Proper es 15 Jumeirah Islands 3.71 3.67 1% reidin.com A market-wise comparison shows that Affordable Housing has the highest gross rental yield at 8.6%, whereas the Trophy Property segment has the lowest net return at 4.35%. Within the Affordable Housing segment Interna onal City currently has superior returns at 9.47%, followed by Discovery Gardens at 8.83%. These high-yields make mid-income housing communi es an a rac ve buy for investors. Moreover, the low maintenance fees (10-12 Aed Per Sq ) incurred by land-lords in these communi es allow them reap higher net returns compared to trophy proper es like Palm Jumeirah and Downtown (26 - 32 Aed per Sq ). 18 What is the Trade?
“Shallow men believe in luck or in circumstance. Strong men believe in cause and effect.” - Ralph Waldo Emerson
19 Apartments Will Con nue to Out-Perform Villas …
Villas Vs Apartments Price Index: 2003- 2014 Villas Vs Apartments Price Index: 2014 reidin.com Villa reidin.com Villa 600 120 Apartment Apartment 500 115
400 110
300 105
200 100
100 95
0 90 Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Historically, villas have out performed apartments in rela on to price ac on by a factor of 2x. However, at the beginning of 2014 we have begun to see a paradigm shi where apartment communi es have had superior growth rates by almost 50%. We opine that this trend will con nue un l the lopsidedness of supply is corrected within both segments.
20 …. Because of Supply Mismatch Coupled With Yield Expansion
Bifurca on of Type of Supply Villa and Apartment Yields 10 Apartments villas 100% 9 90% 8 80% 7 70% 6 60% 79% 5 85% 50% 4
40% 3
30% 2 Apartments - Dubai 20% 1 Villas - Dubai 10% 21% 0 13% Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 0% 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 Current Supply New Supply
An es mated number of 24,296 units (15% increase of exis ng supply) will enter the apartment housing segment, compared to 10,094 (41% increase of exis ng supply) units in the villa segment. The surplus created within the villa community will further taper price ac ons of this segment. The imbalance of supply will lead to higher price growth rates for apartment communi es, driven predominantly by greater demand in the middle-income segment. Whilst rental yields have compressed in both the real estate segments, the con nued downward pressure has been exacerbated in the villa segment implying that either prices in this segment will move lower and/or spreads between the apartment and the villa segment will converge as investors look to “chase yields”. 21 Mid-Income Housing Will Con nue to Outperform Within the Apartment Segment
Price Index 2007 – Till Date: Interna onal City vs Palm Jumeirah Community Wise Price Index: Jan ’13 – Till Date
400 Palm Jumeriah reidin.com 125% reidin.com Downtown Interna onal City 350 120% Palm Jumeirah 300 115% Dubai Marina 250 110% 200 JLT 105% 150 Sports City 100% 100 Interna onal 50 95% City
0 90% Jan Nov Sep Jul May Mar Jan Nov Sep Jul Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 2007 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014
Historically, Trophy Proper es have had superior growth rates to Affordable housing in Dubai. A comparison between Palm Jumeriah (a proxy for Trophy Proper es) against Interna onal City (a proxy for Affordable Housing), shows that in the last 7 years Palm Jumeirah has had greater price ac on by a factor of 2X. However in the last 7 months there has been a paradigm shi where the affordable segment (e.g. Interna onal City) has been the best performer in the market (20% apprecia on).
22 Lopsided Supply in Trophy and Mid-income
Supply and Demand Metrics: Trophy Proper es (2014-2015) 4,000 Demand of Units reidin.com In the next four years 11,198 prime-units are 3,500 Supply of Units 3338 expected to be delivered in the market, which is more than a 50% increase of the overall supply. This 3,000 expected supply doesn’t include a series of new 2,500 trophy-property communi es that are in the 2,000 pipeline such as Lagoons, Blue Water Islands and 1,369 1432 1,452 1,500 Dubai Pearl Islands. These new projects will create an addi onal windfall of units within this segment. 1,000 Of par cular relevance is the fact that one third of 500 this supply is in the form of villas (when compared 0 to the historical average of 13%) 2014e 2015e
Supply and Demand Metrics: Affordable Housing (2014-2015)
18,000 reidin.com Demand of units 15,966 The middle-income segments accounts for 43% of 16,000 Supply of Units the total popula on, and will be the key demand
14,000 12,329 driver for the construc on boom in the coming 11,597 12,000 years. An analysis of supply and demand 10,000 8,903.80 dynamics reveals a shor all within this segment 8,000 (a polar opposite to the trophy market segment), which will lead to an upward pressure in prices. 6,000 This pressure will con nue tread higher un l 4,000 major land backs are ac vated such as Liwan, 2,000 Majan, and DWC Residen al City. - 2014e 2015e 23 Land Price Have Signs of Strong Fundamentals
Land Price Index
Residen al reidin.com 1200
Land 1000 50% below from Peak
800
600
400 Surpassed the peak of 2008 200
0 Jul 2003 Jul 2004 Jul 2005 Jul 2006 Jul 2007 Jul 2008 Jul 2009 Jul 2010 Jul 2011 Jul 2012 Jul 2013 Jul 2014 Nov 2005 Nov 2007 Nov 2008 Nov 2009 Nov 2011 Nov 2003 Nov 2004 Nov 2006 Nov 2010 Nov 2012 Nov 2013 Mar 2003 Mar 2004 Mar 2005 Mar 2006 Mar 2007 Mar 2008 Mar 2009 Mar 2010 Mar 2011 Mar 2012 Mar 2013 Mar 2014
A comparison between the land and residen al price index highlights the difference in price ac on between both asset classes. The end-unit prices have surpassed their peak of 2008, where as land prices are s ll at 50% of its peak level.
24 Conclusions Q2 Performance Highlights Outlook: Apartments to Outperform Villas A segment-wise update of Q2, highlights Over the last 6 months a paradigm shi has that apartments have outperformed villas The apartment segment has occurred where apartments have had outperformed villa by a factor of 3. (Average 17% vs 6%) superior growth rates rela ve to villas. communi es in the first half of 2014, with affordable housing Rental yields also remain stronger within the A flurry of new projects have been added to being the main beneficiary apartment segment yielding approximately the villa supply crea ng an imbalance. double of villas. (Average 8% vs 4.5%) We expect this trend to con nue causing The top performer for the first half of 2014 price growth rates to diverge further within is Interna onal City (25%), followed by these segments Sports City (22%). Both communi es are in the affordable housing segment Outlook: Affordable Housing to Offer Outlook: Land to have Superior Growth Higher Growth Rates Rates to Residen al Units As Dubai con nues to inject supply into the As Dubai enters into another construc on The middle-income segments frenzy, land prices will con nue to out-pace accounts for 43% of the total market to cope with the growing demand, popula on, and will be the key developers have focused on high-end end units, as private developers snatch up demand driver for the developments catering to leisure class. plots affordable housing in the coming years However, the majority of demand in coming The land index highlights that price s ll 50% years will be by the mid-income popula on, below its peak of 2008, whereas residen al
crea ng a shor all within this segment. prices have already crossed their last peak.
Un l this mismatch of supply is not Land price will con nue to rise surpassing corrected, mid-income communi es will those of residen al as supply decreases con nue to outperform trophy proper es exponen ally 25
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