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Nepal Mongolia Bhutan COUNTRY REPORT Nepal Mongolia Bhutan May 2001 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through our digital portfolio, where our latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St The Economist Building 60/F, Central Plaza London 111 West 57th Street 18 Harbour Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2585 3888 Fax: (44.20) 7830 1023 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.eiu.com Electronic delivery This publication can be viewed by subscribing online at www.store.eiu.com Reports are also available in various other electronic formats, such as CD-ROM, Lotus Notes, online databases and as direct feeds to corporate intranets. For further information, please contact your nearest Economist Intelligence Unit office Copyright © 2001 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author’s and the publisher’s ability. However, the EIU does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 1473-8961 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Redhouse Press Ltd, Unit 151, Dartford Trade Park, Dartford, Kent DA1 1QB, UK 1 Contents 3 Summary Nepal 5 Political structure 6 Economic structure 6 Annual indicators 7 Quarterly indicators 8 Outlook for 2001-02 8 Political forecast 8 Economic forecast 9 The political scene 13 Economic policy and the economy 17 Foreign trade and payments Mongolia 19 Political structure 20 Economic structure 20 Annual indicators 21 Quarterly indicators 22 Outlook for 2001-02 22 Political forecast 22 Economic forecast 24 The political scene 26 Economic policy and the economy 31 Foreign trade and payments Bhutan 32 Political structure 33 Economic structure 33 Annual indicators 34 Quarterly indicators 35 Outlook for 2001-02 35 Political forecast 35 Economic forecast 36 The political scene 39 Economic policy and the economy EIU Country Report May 2001 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2001 2 List of tables 10 Nepal: insurgency-related killings, Feb 1996-Dec 2000 16 Nepal: electricity demand forecast, 2001-10 17 Nepal: national urban consumer price index 18 Nepal: current account 26 Mongolia: central government budget, Jan-Feb 2001 List of figures 8 Nepal: real interest rates 9 Nepal: gross domestic product 9 Nepal: Nepalese rupee real exchange rates 18 Nepal: current-account balance 23 Mongolia: gross domestic product 23 Mongolia: togrog real exchange rates 26 Mongolia: consumer price inflation 31 Mongolia: external trade 34 Bhutan: money supply 34 Bhutan: foreign reserves 36 Bhutan: gross domestic product 36 Bhutan: exchange rate 40 Bhutan: revenue and expenditure 40 Bhutan: electricity, gas & water EIU Country Report 2nd quarter 2001 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2001 3 Summary May 2001 Nepal Outlook for 2001-02 Opposition attacks on the prime minister, Girija Prasad Koirala, will continue. The government will seek to implement its “hearts and minds” programme to contain Maoist violence, which has already hit industry. The economy will continue to grow in the wake of India’s economic expansion, but political instability remains a threat. The political scene The Maoist insurgency has spread, with an escalation of violence in April. Parliament has not ratified new security measures, although a new internal security programme has begun. A cabinet reshuffle has backfired and two ministers have quit. Opposition parties have pushed for Mr Koirala’s resignation, and anti-corruption investigations continue. A new citizenship law has been ruled unconstitutional. Bhutanese refugee verification has begun. Senior diplomatic exchanges with China have taken place. Economic policy and the The government’s spending on salaries has increased. Revenue collection may economy be boosted by a customs crackdown. Ways to cut public expenditure have been suggested. The Supreme Court has ordered the reinstatement of the central bank governor. Some financial sector reforms have been delayed. The government has banned strikes in hotels. Power shortages have reappeared. Rice production has increased, but industrial growth has eased. Consumer price inflation remains low. Foreign trade and Growth in foreign trade has slowed. Trade relations with India remain payments complicated. The current-account deficit has widened. Foreign-exchange reserves have increased. The rupee has depreciated further. Mongolia Outlook for 2001-02 The presidential election will take place on May 20th. The government is hoping to secure US$400m in pledges of support at the mid-May donor conference. The government, with IMF encouragement, has committed itself to selling most of its holdings in large companies. The government will be under strong pressure to introduce measures to prevent more losses in natural disasters. The government has big infrastructure development plans for the next two years. The political scene Parliament resumed sitting on April 5th to face a 27-item agenda. The 23rd congress of the Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party met in February- March. Nastsagin Bagabandi is the favourite to win the presidential election. The Democratic Party has complained about government surveillance. A by- election due on May 20th has just one candidate. The prime minister has EIU Country Report May 2001 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2001 4 visited the EU and Tokyo. The president has visited South Korea, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates. Economic policy and the The government is planning to sell shares in three companies. Economic zones economy may be re-drawn. A development plan for Ulaanbaatar will be drafted. Inflation has risen. Unions have squeezed more pay rises from the government. Industrial output has fallen. Leather manufacturers have asked the government for help. The IMF has said “no” to a raw cashmere export tax. Gold production will increase. Gold works have polluted pastures. Donors have responded to an appeal by the UN. Foot-and-mouth disease has struck. The government plans to increase arable production by 2005. The government has been preparing Mongolian International Air Transport for privatisation. The Millennium Road project has got under way. The World Bank has approved new loans for the transport sector. Construction of a power station has been halted. Herdsmen are being encouraged to invest in renewable energy sources. A power station has received Japanese funding. Internet services via mobile telephony have been made available. Foreign trade and The merchandise trade deficit has widened. A new foreign trade licensing payments system has come into force, and meat exporters must now be registered. The ban on timber exports has been lifted. Bhutan Outlook for 2001-02 Progress towards resolving the refugee issue will be slow. It seems most likely that the government’s current ambivalent policy towards taking military action to evict north-east Indian rebels based in Bhutan will continue. Bhutan should be able to sustain economic growth of 5.5-6% in 2001-02, underpinned by tourism receipts and the export of hydroelectric power to India. The trade deficit will narrow. The political scene Progress has been made towards resolving the refugee issue, but the process has been tortuously slow. The US will support the funding of refugee camps. The UN has been positive on human-rights progress in Bhutan. The government has warned that conflict with Indian rebels could have serious effects. Tensions with the Assam state government have risen. Bhutan has purchased weapons from Russia. Economic policy and the Strong ties between India and Bhutan have been emphasised. Foreign members economy have left the board of the Bhutan Trust Fund. Hazardous chemicals are causing concern. The Ninth Plan (a government programme for social and economic development) will emphasise the environment and culture. Hydroelectric potential will be further exploited. Interest rates have been cut. Editors: Duncan Wrigley (editor); Graham Richardson (consulting editor) Editorial closing date: May 15th 2001 All queries: Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 E-mail: [email protected] Next report: Full schedule on www.eiu.com/schedule EIU Country Report May 2001 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2001 Nepal 5 Nepal Political structure Official name Kingdom of Nepal Form of state Constitutional monarchy Head of state The sovereign, currently
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