COMSATS Institute of Information Technology Impact of Climate and Urbanization on Dengue Transmission in Different Regions (Lahore, Karachi and Twin Cities) of Pakistan A Thesis Presented to COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad In partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of PhD (Meteorology) By Bushra Khalid CIIT/FA10-PME-001/ISB Spring, 2014 1 Impact of Climate and Urbanization on Dengue Transmission in Different Regions (Lahore, Karachi and Twin Cities) of Pakistan A Post Graduate Thesis submitted to the Department of Meteorology as partial fulfillment of the requirement for the award of Degree of Ph.D Meteorology Name Registration Number Bushra Khalid CIIT/FA10-PME-001/ISB Supervisor Dr. Abdul Ghaffar Associate Professor, Department of Meteorology COMSATS Institute of Information Technology (CIIT) Islamabad June 2014 Final Approval 2 This Thesis titled Impact of Climate and Urbanization on Dengue Transmission in Different Regions (Lahore, Karachi and Twin Cities) of Pakistan By Bushra Khalid CIIT/FA10-PME-001/ISB Has been approved For the COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad External Examiner: __________________________________________ Dr. Muhammad Mohsin Iqbal Head, Coordination and Agriculture, GCISC Islamabad External Examiner: __________________________________________ Dr. Amjad S. Almas Deputy Director General, CENTech, NESCOM, Islamabad Supervisor: ______________________________________________ Dr. Abdul Ghaffar Associate Professor, Department of Meteorology, Islamabad Campus Incharge/HoD: ______________________________________________ Dr. Kalim Ullah Assistant Professor, Department of Meteorology, Islamabad Campus Chairperson: ______________________________________________ Dr. Shahina Tariq Associate Professor, Department of Meteorology, Islamabad Campus Dean, Faculty of Sciences: _____________________ Prof. Dr. Arshad Saleem Bhatti 3 Declaration I Bushra Khalid, CIIT/FA10-PME-001/ISB hereby declare that I have produced the work presented in this thesis, during the scheduled period of study. I also declare that I have not taken any material from any source except referred to wherever due that amount of plagiarism is within acceptable range. If a violation of HEC rules on research has occurred in this thesis, I shall be liable to punishable action under the plagiarism rules of the HEC. Date: _________________ Signature of the student: June 2014 ____________________________ Bushra Khalid CIIT/FA10-PME-001/ISB Certificate 4 It is certified that Bushra Khalid, CIIT/FA10-PME-001/ISB has carried out all the work related to this thesis under my supervision at the Department of Meteorology, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad and the work fulfills the requirement for award of PhD degree. Date: _________________ June 2014 Supervisor: ___________________________ Dr. Abdul Ghaffar Associate Professor, Department of Meteorology Islamabad Campus Head of Department: _____________________________ Dr. Kalim Ullah Assistant Professor, Department of Meteorology Islamabad Campus 5 DEDICATION To The Rahmat-ul-Alameen Muhammad (Peace Be Upon Him), whose gracious teachings paved the way of knowledge to the zenith of excellence ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS All praise is for Almighty Allah, The Most Gracious, the Most Merciful, WHO gave me the opportunity to undertake and complete this thesis. I express my cordial gratitude to my PhD supervisor Dr. Abdul Ghaffar, Associate Professor, Department of Meteorology, CIIT, for his most enthusiastic and inspiring guidance, and cooperation throughout my research. His encouragement kept me motivated to accomplish this work. I am highly obliged to honorable Rector, Dr. S.M. Junaid Zaidi, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology (CIIT), Pakistan, Dr. Shahina Tariq, Chairperson, Department of Meteorology, CIIT, and Dr. Kalim Ullah, Head Department of Meteorology, CIIT, for providing the best possible opportunities, facilities, and atmosphere for smooth execution of research work. 6 I would like to express deep respect to my fellow PhD scholar, Mr. Azmat Hayat Khan, Director, National Drought Monitoring Center, Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad. I am very grateful to him for his support, guidance, and immediate help throughout my PhD course. I am very thankful to Dr. Abdul Razzaq, Punjab Health Department, Lahore, Dr. Ehsan Ghani, District Health Office, Rawalpindi, Dr. Jalil Kamran, National Institute of Health, Islamabad, Dr. Muhammad Mukhtar, Head R&D, Directorate of Malaria Control, Islamabad for their cooperation and providing the required reliable data sets. I am also thankful to Pakistan Meteorological Department Islamabad, National Highway Authority Islamabad, Civil Aviation Authority Pakistan, National Institute of Population Studies Islamabad, Capital Development Authority Islamabad, and Planning Commission of Pakistan for their timely help in acquisition of authentic data sets for this research work. I appreciate the support provided by SUPARCO in data procurement and the opportunity to work in Geographic Information Systems Laboratory. I am highly grateful to Mian Muhammad Shahbaz Sharif, Chief Minister Punjab for launching the Dengue surveillance cells and recently digitized databases for disease records in Punjab province; to conduct this research work was not possible in Pakistan without this facility. Legitimately I feel highly privileged and obliged to express my sincere thanks and love to my Parents who made it convenient for me in this connection in all respects; keeping my spirits and confidence at a high degree throughout. I am also thankful to my brothers, sisters, and whole family members especially my aunty Ms. Kishwar Khan, Director R&D, Competition Commission of Pakistan for great support and keeping my morale up throughout the course of my PhD studies. They always stood by me whenever I needed. I would like to thank all faculty members and staff of the Department of Meteorology, CIIT, who helped me in less immediate but not less important way to solve the riddles during my PhD studies. Bushra Khalid CIIT/FA10-PME-001/ISB 7 Abstract Pakistan has experienced worst environmental impacts of heavy rains and flooding during the last decade. These extreme environmental conditions became responsible for the outbreak of many fatal diseases like the sudden outbreak of dengue fever in different cities of Pakistan. The high death toll in Lahore city as a result of dengue fever during the year 2011 became an awakening signal to look into the mysteries and myths behind this disease. The present research intended to study the physical environments that have been responsible to cause the sudden mega outbreak of dengue fever during 2011 in Lahore. The comparison of climatic and social covariates of four selected cities of Pakistan (Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, and Karachi) has conducted for the years 2009-2012 to analyze the factors that serve and do not serve the spread of dengue fever in urban areas. The reasons and regions of higher risk of dengue fever transmission have been identified by land use classification, processing of digital elevation models, and analyzing the climate and social covariates. Landsat 30 m TM imagery, SPOT 10 m imagery, and SRTM 90 m DEM have been used for the analysis. The Dengue fever case registry, climatic data sets, travelling data, population data, and malaria case registry for the study period have been acquired from respective national departments. The land use 8 classification has done to analyze the change in urbanization over a period of time. DEMs have been processed to identify the drainage patterns and magnitude of drainage density in study areas. The changes in climate covariates like rainfall, temperature, and wind speed; social covariates like population, travelling, change in urbanization, drainage density and patterns have also been analyzed. A macro level study to understand the dengue transmission in urban environmental gradients has conducted comprising the analyses of flow accumulation, drainage pattern, drainage density, change in population, change in urbanization, dengue incidence during 2009-2012, and climate covariates. A micro level study to understand the dengue transmission and identifying the high risk prone localities has conducted comprising the hotspot analysis, outlier analysis, and regression analysis. Furthermore, the relationship of daily dengue fever incidence with climate covariates during the months of July-October for the year 2011 has also analyzed. The aspect of relationship of dengue fever occurrence with other factors and malaria has analyzed to fill the research gap. The relationship between the occurrences of dengue fever and Malaria, dengue fever and flooding, dengue fever and population, and dengue fever and travelling in the study areas for the years 2009-2012 have been taken into account. Linear Regression Model, Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLM) with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm has computed to see the random effects of different social (population, travelling, and malaria) and climate (minimum- maximum temperature, and rainfall) covariates on dengue fever occurrence. Neural Network with Multilayer Perceptron has used to analyze the normalized importance of different covariates relative to dengue fever occurrence. At the end, the general Dengue prevention and control strategies have been discussed. Results suggest that the low elevation areas with calm winds and higher than the normal minimum temperatures, rapid increase