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Edgware Town Centre Economic Strategy Edgware Bus Station & Garage Edgware Town Centre Economic Strategy Edgware Bus Station & Garage Prepared on behalf of Transport for London | August 2020 Edgware Town Centre Economic Strategy | Edgware Bus Station & Garage TfL – Edgware Town Centre Economic Strategy Report Control Project: Edgware Town Centre Economic Strategy Client: Transport for London Reference: 20.7010 File Origin: Boyer Report TfL Edgware 20.7010.docx Primary Author AJ / MC Checked By: AJ Issue Date Status Checked By 1 15/05/2020 Draft Andrew Jackson 2 20/05/2020 Draft Andrew Jackson 3 03/07/2020 Draft Andrew Jackson 4 30/07/2020 Draft Andrew Jackson / Michael Corbett 5 20/08/2020 Final Andrew Jackson / Michael Corbett Page 1 of 56 Edgware Town Centre Economic Strategy | Edgware Bus Station & Garage TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction 2 Scope and Purpose 2 The Site 2 2. Town Centre Marketplace & Trends 5 Introduction 5 National Trends 5 TfL Precedent Documents 8 Recent Town Centre Regeneration and Redevelopment Schemes 13 Emerging Themes and Summary 17 3. Planning Policy & Evidence Base Review 18 Introduction 18 LB Barnet Policy 18 London Plan 23 Town Centre Evidence Base 26 Employment Evidence Base 28 Summary 28 4. Edgeware Town Centre 31 Introduction 31 Competition 31 Edgware Town Centre Review 31 Summary 39 5. Indicative Components of Town Centre Redevelopment Scheme 40 APPENDIX Appendix One – Examples of Recent Town Centre Regeneration Schemes Appendix Two – Edgware Goad Plan Page 1 of 56 Edgware Town Centre Economic Strategy | Edgware Bus Station & Garage 1. INTRODUCTION Scope and Purpose 1.1 Boyer have been instructed by Transport for London Property Development (TfL PD) to consider the potential redevelopment of TfL’s operational bus station and garage, alongside the adjacent shopping centre site. These sites together form a large part of Edgware town centre. 1.2 Our brief was to prepare an economic strategy that makes detailed recommendations for what redevelopment of these sites could include supporting a vibrant, viable and flexible town centre that is fit for the future. It is also intended that this document will support the preparation of a new Supplementary Planning Document for Edgware Town Centre. 1.3 Following this brief introduction, this report comprises the following sections and analysis. 1.4 Section 2 considers emerging trends in town centre development and identifies example schemes that show emerging trends in town centre regeneration and redevelopment to identify example projects that support the approach and mix of uses that could be taken in Edgware. TfL have prepared a suite of documents that present TfL’s ambitions and aspirations for major redevelopment. These documents cover key issues, emerging trends, opportunities and constraints as well as best practice case studies that can apply to TfL developments and have been prepared by subject matter experts in a variety of town centre topic areas. These documents will also be considered in this section. 1.5 Section 3 provides a review of relevant planning policy and evidence base documents that relate to Edgware town centre. 1.6 Section 4 is a baseline review of Edgware town centre, which considers both quantitatively, and qualitatively the existing town centre composition, including the retail, commercial, leisure and workspace offer of Edgware. This section also identifies gaps in current provision that the proposed redevelopment can address to the benefit of the centre overall. 1.7 Finally, section 5 draws together the analysis from the preceding sections to provide suggested indicative land use component elements for the potential redevelopment scheme. The Site 1.8 The site comprises the following main components: Edgware Bus Station & Garage The Broadwalk Shopping Centre 1.9 Edgware Bus Station and Garage is understood to be one of the busiest facilities on the TfL network with capacity for around 170 buses and serves as a major interchange with the adjoining Northern Line station. Page 2 of 56 Edgware Town Centre Economic Strategy | Edgware Bus Station & Garage 1.10 The Broadwalk Shopping Centre is currently owned by Aberdeen Standard Investments, but a sale is being progressed to Ballymore. The Broadwalk Shopping Centre is a covered shopping mall anchored by a Sainsbury superstore with approximately 30 unit shops and mall kiosks. The overall retail floorspace is circa 20,000sqm and the centre is supported by around 1,200 car parking spaces which are used by shoppers and commuters. 1.11 The TfL land holding is highlighted in blue; and the Broadwalk Shopping Centre (BSC) is shaded red on the study site plan below. We have been advised that the combined site has an area of approximately 8.2 hectares and as such forms a major regeneration opportunity. Fig 1. Edgware Study Site – Landholdings Plan 1.12 The site is centrally located within Edgware town centre area and the Broadwalk shopping Centre is part of the towns designated primary shopping frontage. To the south of the site there is another potential development site called Forumside which is likely to come forward for development within the next couple of years and development on that site and the Broadwalk Shopping Centre and TfL sites will need to be complementary. Page 3 of 56 Edgware Town Centre Economic Strategy | Edgware Bus Station & Garage 1.13 The site and its physical relationship with the rest of Edgware town centre is shown on the extract plan below. Fig 2. Edgware town centre (extract from Edgware town centre Framework (November 2012) 1.14 This report has been prepared in the peak initial period of Covid-19 and as such, the full economic impact of the pandemic and its effect on retailing and wider town centre issues is yet to be seen. Page 4 of 56 Edgware Town Centre Economic Strategy | Edgware Bus Station & Garage 2. TOWN CENTRE MARKETPLACE & TRENDS Introduction 2.1 In this section, we review town centre and retailing trends and consider the precedent of changing town centre uses from a retail centric position to a more mixed-use regenerative model. We consider work prepared for TfL regarding future direction for land uses and societal change and review examples of other town centre regeneration developments, as well as the proposed changes to the Use Classes Order recently set out by Government.. National Trends 2.2 Town centres, particularly in terms of retail, are very different now compared to ten, five or even three years ago; then retail was still considered the primary focus and function of a town centre. In policy terms, the main objective was, and in most instances remains, protecting and enhancing retail function. 2.3 A market commentary report published by Deloitte1 advised that 2018 was the year that saw the most store closures and job losses since the 2008 global recession with the retail industry under continued and increasing pressure with many retailers finding themselves in a position with margins being squeezed between weakening demand and rising costs. Throughout 2019, the challenges to physical store retailers have continued and are expected to prevail for a number of years to come, with Covid-19 also likely to have a noticeable impact. 2.4 PWC2 reported that in the first half of 2019 a net 1,234 stores disappeared from Britain’s top 500 town centres compared with a 222-store loss over the equivalent period in 2017. Many national multiple retailers have found themselves struggling to pay their rents and other overheads (such as rising minimum wages, business rates, utility costs) and there have been a number of multiples challenging landlords to ‘share the pain’ and reduce rental levels or risk losing tenants altogether. 2.5 A consequence of these store closures is a number of towns have large units which are vacant and have limited or no market to take the space as the pool of potential retail occupiers (national chains) is diminishing and they are very cautious about committing to new store locations particularly in ‘second’ and ‘third’ tier town centres. 2.6 The response to these challenges for town centres has to come from a recognition that retail will no longer be the main and dominant component. 2.7 A combination of changing consumer habits with increasing on-line rather than physical in- centre shopping; national multiple retailer casualties; and increased experiential expectations combining leisure, socialising and shopping has led to wide recognition that the role of town centres is changing and the diversification of uses within town centres is needed to support their long-term vitality and viability. 1 https://www2.deloitte.com/tw/en/pages/consumer-business/topics/retail-wholesale-distribution.html?icid=top_retail- wholesale-distribution 2 https://www.pwc.co.uk/industries/retail-consumer/insights/store-openings-and-closures.html Page 5 of 56 Edgware Town Centre Economic Strategy | Edgware Bus Station & Garage 2.8 There will be continued structural change in UK retail through 2020 and beyond and occupier sentiment will remain very cautious. Affordability, sustainability of products and flexibility remain key themes for retailers. Profitability remains the key performance metric. 2.9 Retail performance will be strongest in London and the surrounding key urban locations, and this polarisation of major regional and sub-regional retail centres being ahead of other smaller centres will see prime retail outperform the rest. 2.10 The repurposing of retail floorspace will be a key trend over the coming years and this is most likely to be manifest in converting excess retail space to create mixed-use destination schemes. 2.11 UK retail will continue to weather a perfect storm that is bringing about fundamental changes to the sector through a combination of structural, cyclical and temporary factors. For landlords and investors the combined impact has seen rental values reduced and capital values of schemes consequently fall substantially.
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