DJIBOUTI Food Security Update October 2008

• Recent rains are expected to replenish Figure 1. Estimated current food security conditions natural resource availability (pasture, browse and water) improving animal productivity and the food security situation in coastal areas.

• Inland pastoral livelihood zones are entering a six month dry period (October to February). WFP has scaled‐up food aid distributions to include 80,000 people in rural areas and is expected to begin implementing a food aid program in City.

• In addition to the good rains in the coastal grazing belt, forecasts indicate that the prices of cereals will decline during the coming months due to increased imports by traders. Source: FEWS NET Djibouti For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale Seasonal calendar and critical events

Source: FEWS NET

Food security summary

Following poor temporal distribution of the Karan/Karma rains, the onset of the Heys/Dada rains was timely, with heavy rains of around 100mm during the first week of November. Rains were particularly heavy in the mountains of Goda and Mabla, north of Tadjourah, and in Djibouti city. Flash floods were reported in the Ambouli basin and the gardens of Ambouli were damaged. The extent of the damage is not yet known, but it not expected to significantly affect food security in this area. However, natural resource availability, including pasture and browse conditions and water availability, are expected to improve, particularly in the coastal grazing areas. As a result, the food security situation in the coastal grazing areas is expected to improve. Though the inland areas (Northwest and Southeast border livelihood zone) received unseasonable rains, but they remain extremely food insecure due high levels of livestock mortality during the last season following previous droughts.

FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET Djibouti 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this Tel: 253 35 33 43 publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Washington DC 20006 [email protected] for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected]

www.fews.net/djibouti

DJIBOUTI Food Security Update October 2008 Figure 2: Djibouti livelihoods zones

The food security situation in the Southeast border pastoral livelihood zone remains precarious and has become particularly ERITREA critical in Dikhil. Pasture remains limited and animals are concentrated at water points and along wadi banks (dry creeks). Milk production, which is typically high during this period, is still below‐ normal, the physical condition of livestock remains poor, and

Obock livestock/grain terms of trade continue to be unfavorable for 1 ! 2b

pastoralists. It is expected that livestock will be moved to the !! Tadjourah ! Heys/Dada grazing areas near the coastal plains following recent Djibouti rainfall in that area. Reports indicate that destitute migrants from 2a ! !Arta many areas of Djibouti are now in Sankal and Assamo, villages near ! !! the Ethiopian border. In the Southeast roadside pastoral livelihood 3a ! ! subzone, rains during the first week of November may slightly ease Dikhil! 3b ! ! food insecurity as pasture conditions are expected to improve. 4 SOMALIA !!!! ! Livestock production in this area is near normal. In the central 02550 Kilometers pastoral livelihood zone, intermittent, near‐ to above‐normal rainfall was observed. The coastal areas of Obock and the central highlands of Tadjourah (Day) and Obock (Mabla) have received heavy rains and Medeho is currently inaccessible due to recent . This zone remains highly food insecure. In the northwest pastoral livelihood zone pasture and water remain extremely limited. Milk production is far below the seasonal norm. The food security situation in this zone continues to deteriorate and increased numbers of people Source: FEWS NET are in need of food aid. The population in this zone is chronically food insecure, meaning they consistently survive below international Figure 3. Estimated rainfall for October 2008, minimum food energy standards in a normal year. Actions to assist as percent of average the poor in this zone need to be prioritized. In the market gardening livelihood zone, water available for irrigation is below the seasonal norm due to the poor Karan/Karma rains, a situation which is mst critical in the southern agricultural zones (e.g., Dikhil). Vegetables are Legend at their early growth stage and a lack of proper pest and disease 0 - 5 control measures (due to unavailability of broad spectrum pesticides 5 - 20 at reasonable prices) will also reduce the vegetable production this 20 - 50 50 - 80 season. 80 - 120 120 - 160 160 - 200 200 - 300 Seasonal progress >300

The onset of Heys/Dada rains typically occurs in October, with the Source: FEWS NET/USGS

rains lasting until February. Heys/Dada rains are light coastal showers Figure 4. Cumulative rainfall for October 2008 associated with moist offshore winds originating from the Arabian in mm peninsula. These showers are heaviest in mountains of Goda and Mabla north of Tadjourah and in the more elevated areas of Arta and Ali‐sabieh district. This year, these rains started during the third dekad of October with low intensity precipitation (1‐10mm) across Legend most of the country (Figure 4). Areas around Balho in Tadjourah 0 district and around Aseyla in Dikhil district received 10‐20mm during 1 - 10 October. 10 - 20 20 - 40 The rains received during October were below normal, as illustrated in 40 - 80 Figure 3, but these deficits were offset by heavy rains which fell 80 - 160 during the first week of November. Overall the onset of Heys/Dada 160 - 320 >320

Source: FEWS NET/USGS Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

DJIBOUTI Food Security Update October 2008

rains is adequate in distribution and intensity. Field reports suggest that the rains were heaviest in parts of Obock, Tadjourah, Arta and Djibouti districts. Rains reached more than 200 mm in the central highland zone of Mountain Day and Godda Plateau down to the coastal plains of Tadjourah. As a result, most water catchments on the flood plains of Dorra zone were replenished and water table levels have improved. Some flash floods were observed in Wea and Ambouli dry creeks and the moist winds associated with the heavy rains associated are contributing to increased incidence of pneumonia in livestock.

The prospects for this season’s rains are promising and good rains are expected to continue. In turn, this will improve pasture, browse and water availability in coastal grazing areas, leading to improved animal body conditions. Because rainfall will be concentrated in coastal areas, migration in search of pasture and browse will be concentrated in this region. As the inland countryside enters the prolonged five month dry spell (October to February, see seasonal timeline), pasture, browse and water resources are expected to be adequate due unexpected and unseasonable rains.

Markets, trade and food access in urban areas Figure 5. Cost of expenditure basket for poor The cost of the expenditure basket for poor urban households households in Djibouti City (in ‘000 DJF per month) decreased slightly in October (3 percent), despite a slight 36 increase in the prices of staple foods (e.g., sorghum and beans), 35 due to an increase in the cost of key non‐food items (Figure 5). 34 33 Furthermore, forecasts indicate that cereal prices, particularly 32 31 rice, may decrease significantly during the coming month due 30 to large scale, collective imports by groups of traders. 29 28 27 26 However, the relatively small size of the Djibouti market and 25 market concentration has important implications. First, due to 24 23 extreme heat, it is not possible to stock large quantities of 22 21 cereals at the port or in stores. Second, the domestic market 20 structure is unfavorable to consumers. There are only 20 to 30 19 18 traders serving the local market, and they control all imports Jan-05 Mar-05 May- Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov- Jan-06 Mar-06 May- Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov- Jan-07 Mar-07 May- Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov- Jan-08 Mar-08 May- Jul-08 Sep-08 into the country. This small group of traders collectively arranges cereal shipments, and just one shipment can accommodate Djibouti’s consumption requirements for several months. Third, there are only few market operators (importers) which are highly specialized (there are no more than 2 to 3 operators per product. The oligopolistic market structure incites collusive behavior and traders are believed to be in tacit agreements. There is also a local monopoly in the retail market. This causes higher price levels than in neighboring countries. Finally, supplies from the region are limited since Ethiopia, an important cereal exporter for the Djibouti market, banned cereal exports last year. However, informal cross border flows from Somaliland continue, mitigating price rises.

Figure 6. Nominal retail price for red sorghum Figure 7. Nominal retail price for Rice (Belem)

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

DJIBOUTI Food Security Update October 2008

Source: Djibouti DISED and FEWS NET/Djibouti Source: Djibouti DISED and FEWS NET/Djibouti

Figure 8. Nominal retail price for Sorghum flour Figure 9. Nominal retail price for Wheat flour

Source: Djibouti DISED and FEWS NET/Djibouti Source: Djibouti DISED and FEWS NET/Djibouti

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4