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Prime Retail Markets Across Japan

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Prime Retail Markets Across Japan A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION THE CONTINUALLY CHANGING LANDSCAPE OF PRIME RETAIL MARKETS ACROSS JAPAN SEPTEMBER 2017 INSIGHTS INTO ACTION A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION CONTENTS SUMMARY PRIME RETAIL MARKETS ACROSS JAPAN RANKING 4 The landscape of Japan’s mature SILVER SEAT TAKES THE GOLD 5 retail market is gradually changing. RANKINGS DANCE TO THE BEAT OF REDEVELOPMENT & TOURISM 6 Area redevelopment projects will change the pedestrian flow and AMBITIOUS SHIBUYA REDEVELOPMENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CHANGE THE LANDSCAPE 8 each submarket’s fundamentals, OUTLOOK 10 continue to show change. Trends like community oriented retail, pop- TOWARDS AN EXPERIENCE BASED RETAIL MARKET 12 up shops, athleisure and food halls COMMUNITY ORIENTED STORES BUILD A SENSE OF BELONGING 13 are reflecting changing consumer HEALTH & WELLNESS TREND PROVIDING TAILWIND FOR ATHLEISURE 14 preferences. Subsequently retail POP-UP SHOPS CREATE BUZZ 15 markets are shifting and we are seeing FOOD HALLS DRAWING IN CONSUMERS 16 changes in the relative positions of Japan’s major retail markets. While the Top Tier Ginza market is showing no signs of relinquishing the number one position, the 56 markets below are due for some exciting changes. INSIGHTS INTO ACTION 2 THE CONTINUALLY CHANGING LANDSCAPE OF 3 PRIME RETAIL MARKETS ACROSS JAPAN A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION This section outlines the shifts happening in Japan’s retail markets through Street examination of the changes in rental rates. When THE SILVER SEAT TAKES GOLD analyzing retail markets, One Way the typical approach is Ginza commands the highest retail Further, Ginza continues to reinvent to look at Tier 1 streets rents in Japan and this comes as no itself and evolve. In the past 18 and observe the prime surprise as the area is well known for months, 3 new facilities have opened: having some of the most expensive Tokyu Plaza Ginza, Ginza Place & rents only. These prime real estate globally. What is surprising Ginza Six. Ginza Six, Ginza’s newest rental rates are used as a is that Ginza has 2 spots within and most impressive shopping center the top six most expensive retail completed its grand opening in April benchmark which reflects markets as even Tier 2 Ginza rents 2017. The opening ceremony was are only less expensive than the Tier 1 such a popular event that even Prime the intensity of demand in Omotesando, Harajuku, Aoyama and Minister Abe spoke. Since opening, the submarket. This report Shinjuku area rents. Further, Ginza it has had a significant effect on Tier 3 rents are tied with or are higher pedestrian traffic in the Ginza area. examines 19 of the most than eight other Tier 1 markets. In Even along Chuo-Dori Avenue, the prominent retail markets other words, Ginza is the clear stand- busiest part of Ginza, there is a out retail market in Japan. noticeable difference in the traffic around the northeastern end. Ginza across Japan on a periodic Part of the appeal of Ginza is that Six contributed to rental rates rising it continually provides a second to basis; however, to further 17% in the area since the tail end of none genuine shopping experience. understand the dynamics of 2015. Japan’s mature market, we YURAKUCHO further broke each market STATION down into 3 Tiers, given that HANKYU MEN’S ITOCIA there are certain areas that LUMINE MARUI 1&2 can be classified as more TOKYU PLAZA MARRONIER GINZA Harumi Dori Avenue prime than others. We then GATE PRIME RETAIL MARKETS PRIME RETAIL examined the top rental rates in each of these Tiers WAKO ACROSS JAPAN RANKING JAPAN ACROSS DEPT. GINZA across an 18 month period, STORE 1-CHOME STATION Chou Dori Avenue starting in the fourth quarter GINZA STATION GINZA SIX MITSUKOSHI MATSUYA of 2015. DEPT. DEPT. STORE STORE HIGASHI GINZA STATION Tier 1 areas are defined as the most prime retail area within the submarket, Tier 2 areas are the second most prime areas and Tier 3 areas are the third most prime areas within the submarket. Using the 19 submarkets and 3 Tiers within each submarket, we ranked the top end rental rates in each area to give us a comprehensive list of the top retail markets across Japan. We performed this ranking for 3 times across an 18 month period and have examined the changes across time in these key submarkets. 4 THE CONTINUALLY CHANGING LANDSCAPE OF 5 PRIME RETAIL MARKETS ACROSS JAPAN A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION 1ST GOAL Tourism and the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games are powerful RANKINGS DANCE growth catalysts for the Japanese economy. Starting in 2013, the Abe government began relaxing visa requirements for 20 selected countries mainly in Southeast Asia. This is particu- TO THE BEAT OF million larly important as among the countries that were approved visitors for relaxed regulations are China, Brazil, Thailand, Malaysia, REDEVELOPMENT & Myanmar, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam; all TOURISTS of which have dynamic economies and a rapidly growing NEW GOAL middleclass, ripe with wanderlust. This relaxation, in tandem with a weakening yen, has triggered an influx of tourists. In mid 2013, Prime Minister Abe set an inbound tourism target The ranking of the top two markets has not 40 of 20 million people by the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo drastically changed over the 18 month survey million but in 2016, due to unprecedented tourism figures in 2015, period. However, Shinjuku Tier 1 was jumped by visitors the government adjusted their 2020 target to an ambitious Harajuku and Aoyama, pushing it back to 5th 40 million visitors, which will create a large opportunity for place. Shinsaibashi / Midosuji moved into a 6th Japanese retailers. Japan continues to achieve high tourism place tie with Ginza Tier 2, beating out Shibuya 2016 FIGURES figures, hitting 24 million tourists in 2016. Driven by high Tier 1 in the process as tourists have helped push numbers of regional tourists, inbound tourism figures contin- up rents recently especially where drug and ue to rise into 2017 and the first quarter posted 13% growth cosmetic stores are concerned. from the same period last year. In this respect, tourism fig- 24 ures are on pace to reach the 40 million target. (The target The Umeda area has gotten a major facelift million visitors requires a growth rate of 13%) For asset owners and retailers in recent years. The opening of Grand Front alike, tourism can have a dramatic impact on their business. Osaka, the Lucua Shoping center and the For example, over the past eighteen months, driven by a high Hankyu department store refurbishment have volume of travelers, top end rents in Shinsaibashi have risen helped to draw retailers towards the area. As the 66%. area’s appeal improved, rents in the area have correspondingly improved, with Umeda showing a structural improvement, moving up in the INBOUND TOURISM BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN: rankings for Tier 1 and Tier 2 areas. 2009-2016 ACTUAL Ikebukuro Tier 1 moved from 13th to 9th and MILLION Umeda Tier 1 and Shinjuku Tier 2 also earned 45 spots in the top 10. Sakae, in Nagoya fell unceremoniously out of the top 10. Sakae 40 has actually seen a rental decrease as new developments in the Nagoya Station area are 35 drawing demand away from Sakae. Due to this decline, Sakae Tier 1 dropped 7 spots and Sakae 30 Tier 2 dropped the most spots out of all markets, moving 11 spots from 21 to 32. 25 In recent years, the Nagoya station area has undergone a major transformation. 3 large 20 projects in close proximity to the station have been constructed: JP Tower Nagoya, Dai Nagoya 15 Building and JR Gate Tower. These projects have fundamentally altered the pedestrian traffic in 10 Nagoya, creating greater concentration in the station area. Retailer interest has since shifted 5 focus from the traditional Ohtsu Dori Avenue in Sakae, to the station area, detrimentally affecting 0 the rents in Sakae. The shift to the Nagoya 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F TARGET 2020 station area will only strengthen with time as there are two more major developments in the pipeline – one completed this year and one scheduled for completion in tandem with the China Taiwan Other Asia Europe linear motor car. South Korea Hong Kong North America Other Source – Cushman & Wakefield and Japan National Tourism Organization as of March 2017 6 THE CONTINUALLY CHANGING LANDSCAPE OF 7 PRIME RETAIL MARKETS ACROSS JAPAN A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION mixed use project is situated on the site of Shibuya Part 1 and Part 3 and is AMBITIOUS SHIBUYA scheduled for completion in the fall of 2019. The new PARCO will develop into a place where fashion, entertainment, food, technology and arts and culture intersect, and will become a new symbol for fashion forward Tokyo- REDEVELOPMENT ites. HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CHANGE THE Further adding to the excitement, R Project, a smaller office, retail and nurs- ery school development will serve an important role connecting pedestrian RETAIL LANDSCAPE traffic from the quaint shopping development “LOG Road” in Daikanyama with the Shibuya Stream development project. Upon completion, the R project will establish a walkable route from Shibuya to Daikanyama, further expanding the viable retail area in both locations and impacting pedestrian and the three towers (East, Central flow. The Shibuya station & West) of the Shibuya Station area When compared to other major retail areas such as Ginza and Shinjuku, redevelopment can be thought to be development Shibuya has previously not seen much redevelopment activity and has in the traditional retail area. What this remained relatively compact. Now, for the first time in a while, small to means is that once completed, the project is the most medium scale developments and residential projects to the south west of pedestrian flow that had once been the station and redevelopments to the north-west will serve to grow the ambitious project in directed to the iconic Shibuya cross- Shibuya area out from its center.
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