Indonesia - Daily Risk Assessment

Issue No. 378/2017 | 10 Apr 2017

SIX SUSPECTED MILITANTS KILLED IN EAST JAVA COUNTRY HEADLINES

Counterterrorism authorities killed six suspected militants and arrested four others in Authorities Remove Provocative separate raids in East Java over the weekend. Police confirmed that all of the suspects were Election Banners members of Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD), a group affiliated with the Islamic State (IS). -Page 2 Police shot dead six militants during an exchange of gunfire on Saturday 8 April after a

group of seven attempted a drive-by shooting of police officers at a traffic post in Jenu, Explosives Ship Sinks off Tuban regency. One police officer was reportedly injured during the shoot-out. East Java Thousand Islands Police spokesman Frans Barung Mangera said that the suspects attempted to flee into a -Page 6 plantation in nearby Beji village, where they were involved in a shoot-out with police and

military (TNI) personnel for about six hours. Police arrested one suspect following the shoot- Four Arrested for Attacking Uber out. National Police spokesman Brig. Gen. Rikwanto told reporters that the seven were part Driver in Bali of a JAD cell in Semarang, Central Java, led by Fauzan Mubarok, who is currently on the -Page 7 police’s wanted list. The attack was allegedly an act of retaliation after members of the

National Police counterterrorism unit, Densus 88, arrested three senior JAD members, identified as Zainal Anshori, Hendis Efendi and Zaenal Hasan, during raids in Paciran, Lamongan regency, on Friday 7 April. The three were allegedly planning to attack a police station in Brondong, Lamongan regency, this week. “The Saturday attack was carried out as per the instruction of Anshori, if he was arrested before launching his own plot,” said Rikwanto, as reported by Kompas. Police seized ammunition, firearms, knives and jihadi books at Anshori’s house. National Police spokesman Insp. Gen. Boy Rafli Amar said on Sunday 9 April that Anshori was appointed as the leader of JAD cells in East Java by Aman Abdurrahman, a terrorist convict who is serving time in a prison on Nusakambangan Island. Amar added that Anshori was also linked to Suryadi Mas’ud, a JAD member who was arrested in Cikarang, Bekasi (West Java), on 23 March over his alleged involvement in facilitating funding and logistics for the Sarinah attack in Central last year. “Anshori assisted Mas’ud in smuggling weapons from the Philippines and planned to establish a military training camp for JAD members in Halmahera, North Maluku,” said Amar. Al-Chaidar, a terrorism expert at the Malikussaleh University in Aceh, told Koran Tempo that the arrest of Anshori could weaken the JAD network in addition to the arrest of JAD members in Banten, Bekasi and Tangerang in the past six months. “However, authorities should remain vigilant, as there are at least 4,000 JAD members in 18 provinces that could potentially launch similar attacks,” he said. JAD, which is listed as a terrorist organisation by the US State Department, is believed to have attracted hundreds of Islamic State sympathizers across .

TOP ISSUES

TERRORISM | EXTREMISM Authorities detained Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) politician Muhammad Nadir Umar at Juanda International Airport in Surabaya on Saturday 8 April after he was deported from Turkey for allegedly trying to join the Islamic State. (Page 2)

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PHYSICAL RISKS

TERRORISM | EXTREMISM

DPRD Member Accused of Trying to Join Islamic State Authorities detained Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) politician Muhammad Nadir Umar at Juanda International Airport in Surabaya on Saturday 8 April after he was deported from Turkey for allegedly trying to join the Islamic State (IS) in Syria. Umar is a member of the Pasuruan Legislative Council (DPRD) in East Java. He allegedly attempted to join IS under the cover of a humanitarian mission from the Quari Umah Foundation for Turkish and Lebanese refugees in Syria. Umar who left the country on 31 March was deported from Istanbul on 6 April via Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. A police spokesman said that Umar will be sent to the government’s de-radicalisation program at the Bambu Apus shelter in East Jakarta. In February this year, 75 people, most of them women, were also sent to the shelter after being deported from Turkey late last year. Sources: Kompas | Republika | Koran Tempo | Okezone | Berita Satu | The Jakarta Globe | The Jakarta Post

ETHNIC, RELIGIOUS & SOCIAL CONFLICT

Thousands Gather to Promote National Unity Thousands of members of Nahdlatul Ulama, the country’s largest Muslim organisation, gathered in Sidoarjo, East Java, on Sunday 9 April to call for national unity. “This event is expected to secure religious harmony amid current issues faced by the country,” said a spokesman for NU. Syafii Maarif, the former chairman of Indonesia’s second-largest Muslim organisation, Muhammadiyah, expressed concern over the use of religion as a political tool. National Police chief Gen. Tito Karnavian, who was also present, said that identity politics was growing, while the promotion of Pancasila was fading in society. Sources: Antara News | Kompas | The Jakarta Post

Authorities Remove Provocative Election Banners The Jakarta Administration said that it had taken down 1,153 provocative banners up until Friday 7 April in an effort to reduce the potential for conflict among residents ahead of the gubernatorial election runoff on Wednesday 19 April. Police removed most of the banners from East and West Jakarta, according to city officials. Authorities are investigating who was responsible for erecting the banners. Source: The Jakarta Post

HEALTH & DISEASE | FIRE & SAFETY

Eight Injured in Restaurant Explosion Eight people were injured in a gas cylinder explosion at the Bebek Kaleyo restaurant in Tebet, South Jakarta, on Friday 7 April. Parts of the restaurant were also damaged by the explosion. Police are investigating. Sources: Kompas | Warta Kota | Media Indonesia

POLICE | OPPORTUNIST, ORGANISED & VIOLENT CRIME

Drug Traffickers Arrested, Others Shot Dead in Police Raids Riau Police arrested an Indonesian national identified only as EK in Jangkang village, Bengkalis regency (Riau Province), on Sunday 9 April for possession of 40 kilograms of methamphetamine and 160,000 ecstasy pills produced in China. A police 2

spokesman said that the man allegedly smuggled drugs valued at IDR74 billion rupiah (USD5.5 million) from China via Malaysia. Police said that the arrest was made after they detained two drug couriers in Siak regency on Saturday 8 April. The two men alleged that EK was their supplier. Earlier on 1 March, police shot dead a drug trafficker in Medan, North Sumatra, who had in his possession 48kg of methamphetamine that was also smuggled from China. Meanwhile, one drug trafficker was fatally shot by members of the National Narcotics Agency (BNN) after trying to escape custody in Sanngau regency, West Kalimantan, on Sunday. Officers arrested three other people and confiscated 15kg of drugs during the raid. Sources: Kompas | Okezone | Viva News | Liputan 6 | Koran Tempo | The Jakarta Post

Five People Found Dead in Medan Five people were found dead and one in critical condition at a house on Jl. Kayu Putih, Medan, North Sumatra on Sunday 9 April. The bodies have been taken to Bhayangkara Hospital in Medan for an autopsy. Police are investigating whether the deaths were the result of a murder, or a violent robbery. Sources: Kompas | Warta Kota | Media Indonesia

Two Arrested for Car Theft at South Jakarta Mall Police on Sunday 7 April arrested two men for attempting to steal a car from the Pondok Indah Mall parking lot in South Jakarta two days earlier. A police spokesman said that officers had identified the suspects from CCTV cameras at the mall. Elsewhere, police shot and killed a man who robbed a pedestrian on Jl. Raden Inten, East Jakarta, on Sunday 9 April. Sources: Kompas | Warta Kota | Media Indonesia

Murderer Arrested in South Jakarta Police on Sunday 9 April arrested a man who murdered a restaurant waiter at his house in Kebayoran Lama, South Jakarta, two days earlier. As of writing, police said that they were still investigating the motive. Sources: Kompas | Warta Kota | Media Indonesia

NATURAL DISASTERS

Residents Flee Over Landslide Concern in East Java Hundreds of residents have fled their homes in Dayakan village, Ponorogo regency (East Java), over concerns that cracks in the soil could indicate that another landslide is imminent. The area is just 50 kilometres from the site of a landslide that buried dozens of people in Banaran village on 1 April. A spokesman for the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) said on Saturday 8 April that the cracks appeared on Wednesday 5 April. Meanwhile, Ponorogo regent Muchlissoni on Sunday 9 April said that the search and rescue process in Banaran village had been halted due to safety concerns. Rescue teams only managed to find three bodies, while around 25 people remained missing. Elsewhere in Nganjuk (also in East Java), five people were reportedly missing after a landslide buried homes in Kepel village on Sunday. A BNPB spokesman said that at least 100 people living in the village have been evacuated following the incident. Sources: Antara News | Kompas | Detik | The Jakarta Post | Tempo | Liputan 6

INDONESIA VOLCANO UPDATE MONDAY 10 APRIL Standardised coding by the Volcanological Survey of Indonesia (VSI) Volcano / Mount Province Alert Level Alert Code Interpretation 1. Sinabung North Sumatra 4 Based on observation data analysis, a major

Dangerous RED eruption is possible within 24 hours. (Awas) 3 If trends continue, eruption is possible within

Warning (Siaga) Orange two weeks.

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2. Api Banda Maluku 2 Magmatic, tectonic or hydrothermal

3. Dempo South Sumatra Caution Yellow disturbances - no eruption imminent. 4. Bromo East Java (Waspada) 5. Iya East Nusa Tenggara 6. Lokon North Sulawesi 7. Awu North Sulawesi 8. Soputan North Sulawesi 9. Karangetang North Sulawesi 10 Egon North Sulawesi 11. Anak Krakatau Sunda Strait 12. Ijen East Java 13. Ruang North Sulawesi 14. Rokatenda East Nusa Tenggara 15. Guntur West Java 16. Talang 17. Dukono North Maluku 18.Tambora West Nusa Tenggara 19. Raung East Java 20. Anak Ranaka East Nusa Tenggara 21. Sundoro Central Java 22. Lamongan East Java 23. Ambang Sulawesi 24. Semeru East Java 25. Sirung East Nusa Tenggara 26. Ile Lewotolo East Nusa Tenggara 27. Marapi West Sumatra 28. Papandayan West Java 29. Kerinci Jambi 30. Ebulobo East Nusa Tenggara 31. Seuleuwah Aceh 32. Lewatobi Perempuan East Nusa Tenggara 33. Ibu Maluku 34. Sangeang Api West Nusa Tenggara 35. Gamnokora North Maluku 36. Tangkuban Perahu West Java 37. Colo Central Sulawesi 38. Lewatobi Laki – Laki East Nusa Tenggara 39. Slamet Central Java 40. Dempo North Sumatra 41. Kie Besi North Maluku 42. Gamalama North Maluku 43. Soputan North Sulawesi Source: Indonesian Directorate of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation

ENVIRONMENT & CLIMATE

INDONESIA HIGH WAVE ALERT MONDAY 10 APRIL Height Location Remarks 2.0 – 3.0 m Waters off Fak-fak and Yos Sudarso (Papua). Waters to the north and west of Hazardous for fishing vessels and Aceh. Waters to the north of Halmahera (Maluku), Papua and West Papua. motorised wooden vessels. Waters to the south of Sumba (East Nusa Tenggara). Waters from the west of Simeulue Islands (Aceh) to Mentawai Islands (West Sumatra). Waters from the 4

south of Java to Sumbawa (West Nusa Tenggara). Waters from Bengkulu to the west of Lampung (southernmost Sumatra). The Sunda Strait. The Bali, Lombok and Alas Straits. The Bintuni Gulf. The waters of the Sangihe and Talaud (Sulawesi). The Halmahera Sea. The northern reaches of the Maluku Sea. The eastern reaches of the Banda Sea. 3.0 – 4.0 m The Indian Ocean from the west of Mentawai Islands to the south of Java. The Hazardous for fishing vessels, waters of the Sermata, Leti, Babar, Tanimbar, Kai and Aru (Maluku) Islands. The motorised wooden vessels, tugboats, Arafuru Sea. LCT and ferries. Source: Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG)

JAKARTA WEATHER FORECAST MONDAY 10 APRIL – SATURDAY 15 APRIL Date Forecast Conditions: Day Forecast Conditions: Evening Mon Thunderstorms. High 32C. Winds WNW at 10 to Thunderstorms likely. Low near 25C. Winds light and 10 Apr 15 km/h. Chance of rain 100%. variable. Chance of rain 80%.

Tue Mostly cloudy in the morning, then Showers and thundershowers during the evening 11 Apr thunderstorms developing later in the day. High giving way to periods of light rain overnight. Low 24C.

32C. Winds WNW at 10 to 15 km/h. Chance of rain Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 70%. 100%. Wed Scattered thunderstorms in the morning Scattered thunderstorms during the evening, then 12 Apr becoming more widespread in the afternoon. partly cloudy overnight. Low 24C. Winds light and

High 32C. Winds NNW at 10 to 15 km/h. Chance variable. Chance of rain 40%. of rain 90%. Thu Isolated thunderstorms in the morning becoming Thunderstorms in the evening, overcast overnight 13 Apr more widespread in the afternoon. High 32C. with occasional rain. Low 24C. Winds light and

Winds NNW at 10 to 15 km/h. Chance of rain variable. Chance of rain 80%. 80%. Fri Partly cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms A few clouds. Low 24C. Winds light and variable. 14 Apr developing in the afternoon. High 31C. Winds

NNW at 10 to 15 km/h. Chance of rain 50%. Sat Overcast with rain showers at times. High 31C. A few clouds from time to time. Low around 25C. 15 Apr Winds NNW at 10 to 15 km/h. Chance of rain Winds WSW at 10 to 15 km/h.

50%. Source: The Jakarta Observatory

JAKARTA AIR QUALITY INDEX MONDAY 10 APRIL

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TRANSPORT & TRAVEL

Jasa Marga Closes Karang Tengah Toll Gate State-owned toll road operator PT Jasa Marga on Sunday 9 April permanently closed the Karang Tengah toll gate in Tangerang to ease congestion. A spokesman said that motorists could make toll payments at the Cikopa toll gate. Sources: Kompas | Koran Tempo | Media Indonesia

SHIPPING | MARITIME SECURITY

Explosives Ship Sinks off Thousand Islands A ship carrying explosive materials sank off Damar Islands, Thousand Islands regency, on Friday 7 April. The KM Bhaita Jaya was carrying 1,000 tonnes of ammonium nitrate, one tonne of dynamite and hundreds of detonators when it sank after colliding with another vessel early on Friday. A police spokesman said that the other vessel, the MT Elisabet, which was carrying crude oil, did not sink but the oil almost spilled into the water. 32 crew members from both vessels were rescued. Sources: Kompas | Koran Tempo | Warta Kota

BUSINESS RISKS

NATIONAL SECURITY | POLITICAL AFFAIRS

President Picks New MK Justice President has picked Saldi Isra, a law professor at , as the new Constitutional Court justice. Isra was one of three candidates submitted by an independent team tasked with finding a successor to MK justice , who was arrested in January on corruption charges. The other candidates were Bernard Leodom Tanya from Nusa Cendana University in Kupang, East Nusa Tenggara, and Wicipto Setiadi, a retired official from the Law and Human Rights Ministry. Sources: Kompas | Koran Tempo | Media Indonesia | Republika

PROVINCIAL AFFAIRS

North Sumatra: Officer Critically Injured in Mob Attack A North Sumatra Police officer was critically injured during a drug raid in Medan Denai district, Medan, on Friday 7 April. A police spokesman said that the victim was attacked with a machete by several residents on Jl. Jermal 15 who opposed the police operation their area. Police later arrested seven people allegedly responsible for the attack. Sources: Berita Satu | Okezone

West Java: Calm Restored After Sukabumi Clash Police in West Java said that calm had been restored in Sukabumi regency following a clash between two mass organisations on Sunday 9 April. The clash between members of Pemuda Pancasila (PP) and Benteng Bogor Raya Pajajaran (BBRP) was sparked by a threat from a PP member to burn down a BBRP post in Cibadak sub-district. Hundreds of members from both organisations were involved in the clash on Jl. Pamuyuran. At least one police officer was injured while several vehicles were also damaged. Sources: Detik | Berita Satu

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Bali: Four Men Arrested for Attacking Uber Driver Kuta Police on Friday 7 April arrested four men allegedly responsible for attacking an Uber driver in the Seminyak area on 4 April. The incident occurred shortly after the driver picked up a passenger on Jl. Saraswati III, when a group of men pulled him out of the car and attacked him. A witness said that the mob almost killed the victim and the vehicle was also badly damaged. Sources: Detik | Coconuts Bali

COURTS & JUSTICE | CORRUPTION | FRAUD

Prosecutors Seek Six Years in Prison for Iskan Prosecutors at the Surabaya Anti-Corruption Court have demanded a six year prison sentence for the former minister for state- owned enterprises Dahlan Iskan over his alleged role in the sale of assets owned by an East Java provincial company in 2001. Dahlan served as the director of PT Panca Wira Usaha (PWU) from 2000 to 2010. Investigators allege irregularities in the sale of 33 assets belonging to PWU during Dahlan’s tenure. Prosecutors also demanded that Dahlan be fined IDR750 million (USD56,280) and pay IDR8.3 billion restitution. Source: The Jakarta Post

OTHER RISKS

CITY | TRAFFIC | LOCAL AFFAIRS

Jl. Gatot Subroto to be Closed Temporarily A section of Jl. Gatot Subroto, one of South Jakarta’s main thoroughfares, will be temporarily closed from 2300hrs (WIB) to 0400hrs daily until Tuesday 11 April for the construction of an overpass. Jakarta Transportation Agency traffic engineering division head Priyanto said that the closure was needed for road widening that would claim a pedestrian walkway in front of the Indonesian Air Force headquarters. Sources: Berita Jakarta | Warta Kota | The Jakarta Post

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UPCOMING EVENTS DIARY

Public Date Event Remarks Holiday

Thu 13 – Sun 16 Apr 9th Indogreen Environment & No Jakarta Convention Centre Forestry Expo

Fri 14 Apr Good Friday Yes Observed by Christians nationwide

Sun 16 – Wed 19 Apr Megabuild 2017 No Jakarta Convention Centre

Wed 19 Apr Jakarta Gubernatorial Election Yes Jakarta residents return to the polls on 19 April to vote in (Jakarta the second round of the gubernatorial election. only)

Wed 19 – Fri 21 Apr The Indonesia International Creative No Jakarta International Expo (JIE) Kemayoran Textile Apparel Accessories Exhibition (INATEX) 2017

Thu 20 Apr Indonesia Summit (Economist No A strategic business event examining Indonesia’s Conference) economy and politics, at the Shangri-La Hotel, Jakarta.

Mon 24 Apr Ascension of Prophet Muhammad Yes Observed by Muslims nationwide. (Isra Mi’raj)

Wed 26 – Sun 30 Apr INACRAFT 2017 No Jakarta Convention Centre (JCC)

Thu 27 Apr – Sun 7 May Indonesia International Motor Show No Jakarta International Expo (JIE) Kemayoran 2017

Mon 1 May International Labour Day Yes Public Holiday

Thu 11 May Waisak; Buddha’s Birthday Yes Observed by Buddhists nationwide

Fri 12 May Commemoration of the 19th No Widespread riots in Jakarta followed fatal student anniversary of the 12 May 1998 riots. shootings which have never been fully resolved. Student demonstrations likely in observation of the day.

Thu 25 May Ascension of Jesus Christ Yes Observed by Christians nationwide.

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COUNTRY RISK RATING – INDONESIA

Terrorism Crime Ethnic, Religious & Social Health Risks & Services Conflict H (B3) M (C2) H (B3) H (B3) Natural Disasters Corruption & Fraud Business Ethics & Compliance Utilities & Infrastructure H (B3) H (B3) H (B3) H (B3)

Qualitative Risk Analysis Matrix - Level of Risk:

Probability Consequence Rating Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic Rating 1 2 3 4 5 A (almost certain) H H E E E B (likely) M H H E E C (possible) L M H E E

D (unlikely) L L M H E E (rare) L L M H H

Legend:

E Extreme risk Immediate action required H High risk Senior management attention needed M Moderate risk Management responsibility must be specified L Low risk Managed through routine procedures

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