Risque d'invasions marines dans l'Arctique: qui, où, et quand Jesica Goldsmit Post-doctoral visiting fellow
Kimberly Howland Chris McKindsey Philippe Archambault Introduction
Terminologie Étrangers Exotiques
Espèces non Envahisseurs indigènes Espèces envahissantes
Espèces Immigrants introduites
Espèces naturalisées Espèces nuisibles Introduction
Espèces qui se trouvent à l'extérieur de leur aire de distribution normale, en raison d’un action humaine
Sans éventuel impact sur les Avec un IMPACT sur les écosystèmes écosystèmes
Espèces non indigènes Espèces envahissantes (ENI) (EE)
Colautti and MacIsaac (2004) Lockwood et al. (2007) Mandrak et al (2012) Stewart and Howland (2009) Introduction
1442 Canada (écosystèmes agricoles, forestiers et aquatiques) Conséquences économiques negatives (1 million jusqu’à45012% du produit Amérique du Nord intérieur(marine brut)et estuarienne (Marbuah et al )2014) Canada: 0.9% du PBI
Ruiz et al (2015) MacIsaac et al (2002) Pimentel et al (2001) Dawson (2002) Introduction Pour quoi l’Arctique?
Exploitation des Transport maritime ressources
Développement USA portuaire USA corridor Tourisme
Canada Canada
Eaux de ballast et encrassement de la coque
Pipelines Pêche commerciale
Présent 2050
Aquaculture
Modifié de Ricciardi et al (2017) Smith and Stephenson (2013) … ‘apporter des pistes de solutions sur les enjeux du développement maritime durable et responsable’…
www.nicepng.com
Quand? Où?
Qui? Qui? Espèces choisies selon le risque relatif d'introduction (Ricciardi and Rasmusen 1998 protocole): • Connexion aux ports de l'Arctique canadien • Caractéristiques biologiques • Historique d´invasion
Caprelle Crabe vert Mye commune Littorine Carcinus maenas Mya arenaria Caprella mutica Littorina littorea
Balane Croûte de dentelle Crabe royal géant Botrylloïde violet Amphibalanus improvisus Membranipora Paralithodes Botrylloides violaceus membranacea camtschaticus
Goldsmit et al (2018), Biological Invasions Qui? Modèle de distribution des espèces
Natif Coordonnées des Entrée espèces (global) Variables environnementales Introduit Présence uniquement
Listes d'espèces envahissantes
Littérature Projection future MaxEnt (Philipps et al, 2006) Scénario RCP 4.5 IPCC Où? Present Qui?
Mya arenaria Littorina littorea Paralithodes camtschaticus Hudson complex Hudson complex, Beaufort and Chukchi Sea Botryllus violaceus Carcinus maenas Caprella mutica
Goldsmit et al (2018), Membranipora membranacea Amphibalanus improvisus Biological Invasions Quand? Où? 2050 Qui?
Hudson complex Hudson complex, Beaufort and Chukchi Sea
Goldsmit et al (2018), Biological Invasions Qui? Espèces choisies selon Canadian Marine Invasive Screening Tool (CMIST) (Drolet et al 2015), à l'échelle pan-Arctique: • 17 questions relatives au processus d’invasion • Classement • Probabilité d’invasion + Impact d’invasion
Invertébrés benthiques : 11 Amphibalanus eburneus, Zooplancton: 3 Botrylloides violaceus, Acartia tonsa Botryllus schlosseri, Aurelia limbata Carcinus maenas, Mnemiopsis leidyi Chionoecetes opilio, Phytoplancton: 5 Ciona intestinalis, Alexandrium tamarense Littorina littorea, Dinophysis caudate Membranipora membranacea, Dinophysis dens Molgula manhattensis, Gonyaulax polygramma Mya arenaria, Heterocapsa triquetra Paralithodes camtschaticus, Macroalgues: 4 Codium fragile Dumontia contorta Sargassum muticum Undaria pinnatifida Goldsmit et al (in review, Global Change Biology) Où? Qui?
Présent White/Barents Sea
Chukchi Sea/ Bering Sea Hudson Northern Complex Labrador Goldsmit et al (in review, Global Change Biology) Quand? Où? Qui?
Présent 2050 2100
20%
+ 10 fois Goldsmit et al (in review, Global Change Biology) Quand? Où? Qui?
Présent 2050 2100
Goldsmit et al (in review, Global Change Biology) Quand? Où? Qui?
Présent vs 2050 Présent vs 2100
Pr Fut Pr + Fut
Habitat propice: +5.8 Habitat propice: +14.1
Goldsmit et al (in review, Global Change Biology) En bref
White Sea/Barents Sea
Chukchi Sea/ Bering Sea
Northern Labrador
Hudson complex Modifié de www.nordregio.org En bref
X 5.5 En bref + long + court Durée de la glace de mer
Stammerjhon et al 2012
Cheung et al 2009 Des informations précieuses sur le lieu et la manière de surveiller les espèces à risque élevé Merci!
« Le secret de prendre de l'avance est de commencer » Mark Twain
What? Why? Invaders in the Canadian Arctic
Canada has the longest coastline in the world
Most of it is situated in Arctic waters Territorial sea covers 2,000,000 km2 10% 16% Most of the marine introduced species are benthic Dumontia contorta Benthic invertebrates Algae introduced in James Bay and Ellesmere-Baffin Island Not known NIS introduced by ships reported to date (Mathieson et al, 2010) Streftaris et al (2005) Wassmann (2015) Archambault et al (2010) What? Why? Ecological and socio-economic Impacts Biodiversity Habitats Biotic interactions
Tourisme
Shipping
Aquaculture
Fisheries Diving What? Why?
Mapping the global state of invasive species
Countries with highest number of recorded invasive species. Number of species and species per 100,000 km2
Arthropods and marine organisms are the dominant organisms for unintentional introductions across all organisms types (88% introd. unintent)
Turbelin et al (2016) What? Why? Invaders in the Arctic Tanner crab Arctic Ocean Chionoecetes bairdi 5% Earth Surface Chuckchi Sea 35% coast of the world 2018 Snow crab 1. Japanese Skeleton Chionoecetes opilio Shrimp Barents Sea Caprella mutica 2005 Alaska Red King crab 2008 Paralithodes camtschaticus Russia and Norway 1960 (intentional) 2. Ascidean Molgula citrina Alaska 2010 Rock crab Cancer irroratus Iceland 2014
Alvsvåg et al (2009) Ashton et al (2008) Gíslason et al (2014) Lambert et al (2010) Landeira et al (2018) Who? Who? New species described: Chaetozone careyi (Blake 2015) What? Why?
Minimum extent: The lowest ever Mean after recorded 1981 + SD
2012 Winter Spring Summer Autumn Winter
National Snow and Ice Data Center (2018) What? Why?
Mean after 1981 + SD
2018 January, and February were characterized by very warm conditions over the Arctic
Winter Spring Summer Autumn Winter
National Snow and Ice Data Center (2018) 2. Modeling Who?
Region of study
Baffin Bay Greenland Steensby Inlet
Fox Basin Iqaluit
Summer 2011 / 2012 Hudson Intertidal / Subtidal Bay Deception Bay Labrador Core samples Canada Churchill Sea n=80 samples /port
Identification in the lab Toronto Montreal (benthic organisms bigger than 500 µm) Cross referencing protocol
Goldsmit et al (2014) Who?
Total N° of taxa: 236
Cryptogenic:
• 1 Ascidian • 1 Amphipode • 5 Polychaetes
Aricidea cf. hartmani, Dipolydora socialis, Onisimus Lumbrineris cf. zatsepini, Heterostigma sp sextoni group Owenia borealis Paraonides nordica
Goldsmit et al (2014) Who?
8 species present in this study have been found to be established NIS or cryptogenic elsewhere in the world
Australia Black Sea
1 Polychaete 2 Polychaetes
The Arctic could be a potential source of NIS for other ports in the world. Alaska This is why it is important to establish a baseline for this 1 Hydrozoa region 1 Bryozoa
North Pacific North Atlantic
3 Polychaetes 3 Polychaetes
Goldsmit et al (2014) Who? Protocol used for ranking species: which species to select for modelling exercise?
Process for the selection of species
for modelling Step 1
1. Pre-screening analysis Number of species that were pre-screened ≈ 100
1.1 Does the species have -Species with invasive potential. -AIS reported in other Arctic regions. biological/ecological features that allow -Temperature and salinity tolerances survival in Arctic conditions? (all marine species).
Species of high impact ballast- 1.2 Can the species be transported through mediated: NIS established at ports ballast water and/or hull fouling? connected to major Arctic ports
(Chan et al. 2012). Step 2 Who?
2. Ranking of the potential species 1. Ranking of the potential species Canadian Marine Invasive Screening (Ricciardi and Rasmusen, 1998) Tool (CMIST, Drolet 2015)
2.1 Potential donor regions and dispersal Rapid Screening tools can be applied quickly pathways of future invaders with available data
2.2 Biological criteria: general attributes of 17 questions are generalized to the aquatic invasive species invasion process
Present status in the area Rate of introduction 2.3 Invasion history Survival Establishment Spread Impact (Ecological)
Final list of high risk species selected for modelling Who?
CMIST Adjusted risk scores with upper and lower confidence limits for the Canadian Arctic
5.28
3.12 Who?
CMIST Adjusted risk scores with upper and lower confidence limits for the Canadian Arctic
Crustaceans Crabs (benthic)
Zooplankton Tunicates
Barnacles and Macroalgae shrimps/amphipods Who? Mean risk scores in a gradient heat matrix
Mean risk scores 3.00
2.80
2.60 P. camtschaticus 2.40 C. opilio A. modestus A. tonsa
2.20 A. limbata M. arenaria L. littorea C. fragile 2.00 U. pinnatifida M. leidyi A. eburneus C. maenas 1.80 C. intestinalis
E. sinesis Lieklihoodof invasion M. manhattensis S. muticum 1.60 M. membranipora B. schlosseri B. violaceus G. tigrinus 1.40 D. polymorpha
1.20
1.00 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40 2.60 2.80 3.00 Impact of invasion Where? When? Species Distribution Modeling
Native Coordinates Input Environmental variables (global) Introduced Presence only
Temperature
Salinity
Ice concentration
Bathymetry
Listes d'espèces envahissantes
Literature Projection for 2050 and 2100. Scénario RCP 4.5 IPCC (intermediate scenario) Where? When?
Canadian Arctic scale
Predictions for 2050
, 1998) ,
Rasmusen
and
Ricciardi
( 1. Ranking of the potential species species potential of the Ranking 1. Results Distribution Change Arctic (taxa)
Present vs 2050
Present vs 2100
Goldsmit et al (in prep) How? Ecological risk assessment Risk = Probability x Consequence
Ballast water source
Overall risk per port, year and species associated with individual vessel discharges How? Ecological risk assessment Risk = Probability x Consequence
Likelihood of introduction Consequence of occurrence
Likelihood of Impact arrival
X X
Likelihood of survival- Habitat establishment sensitivity
Hewitt et al (2006) Therriault et al (2008) Mandrak et al (2012) How?
Likelihood of introduction Consequence of occurrence Likelihood of arrival Impact
Biodiversity Inter-relationships Corrected Transit discharged X time + volume Trophic Habitat interactions X X Likelihood of survival-establishment Habitat sensitivity Overlapping Biological species importance Habitat Time of the suitability X year + Ecol and Hot spots biol signif areas (EBSAs)
Overall risk Imperfect knowledge Uncertainty How? Overall risk: domestic
Moderate to High Likelihood
High of Introduction
Moderate to High
Consequence of occurrence Moderate Moderate
Low Low Low Moderate High
High Moderate Moderate
Low Low Low Moderate High
Goldsmit et al (in prep) How? Overall risk: international
Low Likelihood of
High Introduction
Moderate to High
Consequence of occurrence
Moderate Moderate Low Low
Low Moderate High High
L of arrival: low
Conseq. occur.: high Moderate Moderate L of arrival: moderate Conseq. occur.: low Low Low Low Moderate High Global: moderate
Goldsmit et al (in prep) How? Hull fouling experiment
In-transit survival and post-arrival performance of hull fouling aquatic invasive species
X X Port B Port A Last port of call
X X Port Z Port Y Zebra mussel Mediterranean mussel Dresseina polymorpha Mytilus galloprovincialis How? Hull fouling experiment
Marine Freshwater Marine Survival Marine and Freshwater Combined with changes in temperature Recovery ability: species - Feeding Freshwater Marine Freshwater - Response time in valve closure - Condition Index
Zebra Mussel Gallo Blue Mussel Dresseina polymorpha Mytilus galloprovincialis Results Distribution Change Global and Arctic (all NIS)
Global Arctic
Present vs 2050
HS: -4.0 HS: +5.8
Poleward shift Present vs 2100
HS: -4.2 HS: +14.1 Goldsmit et al (in prep)