Risque d'invasions marines dans l'Arctique: qui, où, et quand Jesica Goldsmit Post-doctoral visiting fellow

Kimberly Howland Chris McKindsey Philippe Archambault Introduction

Terminologie Étrangers Exotiques

Espèces non Envahisseurs indigènes Espèces envahissantes

Espèces Immigrants introduites

Espèces naturalisées Espèces nuisibles Introduction

Espèces qui se trouvent à l'extérieur de leur aire de distribution normale, en raison d’un action humaine

Sans éventuel impact sur les Avec un IMPACT sur les écosystèmes écosystèmes

Espèces non indigènes Espèces envahissantes (ENI) (EE)

Colautti and MacIsaac (2004) Lockwood et al. (2007) Mandrak et al (2012) Stewart and Howland (2009) Introduction

1442 (écosystèmes agricoles, forestiers et aquatiques) Conséquences économiques negatives (1 million jusqu’à45012% du produit Amérique du Nord intérieur(marine brut)et estuarienne (Marbuah et al )2014) Canada: 0.9% du PBI

Ruiz et al (2015) MacIsaac et al (2002) Pimentel et al (2001) Dawson (2002) Introduction Pour quoi l’Arctique?

Exploitation des Transport maritime ressources

Développement USA portuaire USA corridor Tourisme

Canada Canada

Eaux de ballast et encrassement de la coque

Pipelines Pêche commerciale

Présent 2050

Aquaculture

Modifié de Ricciardi et al (2017) Smith and Stephenson (2013) … ‘apporter des pistes de solutions sur les enjeux du développement maritime durable et responsable’…

www.nicepng.com

Quand? Où?

Qui? Qui? Espèces choisies selon le risque relatif d'introduction (Ricciardi and Rasmusen 1998 protocole): • Connexion aux ports de l'Arctique canadien • Caractéristiques biologiques • Historique d´invasion

Caprelle Crabe vert Mye commune Littorine maenas Mya arenaria mutica Littorina littorea

Balane Croûte de dentelle Crabe royal géant Botrylloïde violet Amphibalanus improvisus Membranipora Paralithodes Botrylloides violaceus membranacea camtschaticus

Goldsmit et al (2018), Biological Invasions Qui? Modèle de distribution des espèces

Natif Coordonnées des Entrée espèces (global) Variables environnementales Introduit Présence uniquement

Listes d'espèces envahissantes

Littérature Projection future MaxEnt (Philipps et al, 2006) Scénario RCP 4.5 IPCC Où? Present Qui?

Mya arenaria Littorina littorea Paralithodes camtschaticus Hudson complex Hudson complex, Beaufort and Chukchi Sea Botryllus violaceus

Goldsmit et al (2018), Membranipora membranacea Amphibalanus improvisus Biological Invasions Quand? Où? 2050 Qui?

Hudson complex Hudson complex, Beaufort and Chukchi Sea

Goldsmit et al (2018), Biological Invasions Qui? Espèces choisies selon Canadian Marine Invasive Screening Tool (CMIST) (Drolet et al 2015), à l'échelle pan-Arctique: • 17 questions relatives au processus d’invasion • Classement • Probabilité d’invasion + Impact d’invasion

Invertébrés benthiques : 11 Amphibalanus eburneus, Zooplancton: 3 Botrylloides violaceus, Acartia tonsa Botryllus schlosseri, Aurelia limbata Carcinus maenas, Mnemiopsis leidyi Chionoecetes opilio, Phytoplancton: 5 , Alexandrium tamarense Littorina littorea, Dinophysis caudate Membranipora membranacea, Dinophysis dens Molgula manhattensis, Gonyaulax polygramma Mya arenaria, Heterocapsa triquetra Paralithodes camtschaticus, Macroalgues: 4 Codium fragile Dumontia contorta Undaria pinnatifida Goldsmit et al (in review, Global Change Biology) Où? Qui?

Présent White/Barents Sea

Chukchi Sea/ Bering Sea Hudson Northern Complex Labrador Goldsmit et al (in review, Global Change Biology) Quand? Où? Qui?

Présent 2050 2100

20%

+ 10 fois Goldsmit et al (in review, Global Change Biology) Quand? Où? Qui?

Présent 2050 2100

Goldsmit et al (in review, Global Change Biology) Quand? Où? Qui?

Présent vs 2050 Présent vs 2100

Pr Fut Pr + Fut

Habitat propice: +5.8 Habitat propice: +14.1

Goldsmit et al (in review, Global Change Biology) En bref

White Sea/Barents Sea

Chukchi Sea/ Bering Sea

Northern Labrador

Hudson complex Modifié de www.nordregio.org En bref

X 5.5 En bref + long + court Durée de la glace de mer

Stammerjhon et al 2012

Cheung et al 2009 Des informations précieuses sur le lieu et la manière de surveiller les espèces à risque élevé Merci!

« Le secret de prendre de l'avance est de commencer » Mark Twain

What? Why? Invaders in the Canadian Arctic

Canada has the longest coastline in the world

Most of it is situated in Arctic waters Territorial sea covers  2,000,000 km2 10% 16% Most of the marine introduced are benthic Dumontia contorta Benthic invertebrates introduced in James Bay and Ellesmere-Baffin Island Not known NIS introduced by ships reported to date (Mathieson et al, 2010) Streftaris et al (2005) Wassmann (2015) Archambault et al (2010) What? Why? Ecological and socio-economic Impacts Biodiversity Habitats Biotic interactions

Tourisme

Shipping

Aquaculture

Fisheries Diving What? Why?

Mapping the global state of

Countries with highest number of recorded invasive species. Number of species and species per 100,000 km2

Arthropods and marine organisms are the dominant organisms for unintentional introductions across all organisms types (88% introd. unintent)

Turbelin et al (2016) What? Why? Invaders in the Arctic Tanner Arctic Ocean Chionoecetes bairdi 5% Earth Surface Chuckchi Sea 35% coast of the world 2018 Snow crab 1. Japanese Skeleton Chionoecetes opilio Barents Sea Caprella mutica 2005 Red King crab 2008 Paralithodes camtschaticus and 1960 (intentional) 2. Ascidean Molgula citrina Alaska 2010 Rock crab Cancer irroratus 2014

Alvsvåg et al (2009) Ashton et al (2008) Gíslason et al (2014) Lambert et al (2010) Landeira et al (2018) Who? Who? New species described: Chaetozone careyi (Blake 2015) What? Why?

Minimum extent: The lowest ever Mean after recorded 1981 + SD

2012 Winter Spring Summer Autumn Winter

National Snow and Ice Data Center (2018) What? Why?

Mean after 1981 + SD

2018 January, and February were characterized by very warm conditions over the Arctic

Winter Spring Summer Autumn Winter

National Snow and Ice Data Center (2018) 2. Modeling Who?

Region of study

Baffin Bay Greenland Steensby Inlet

Fox Basin Iqaluit

Summer 2011 / 2012 Hudson Intertidal / Subtidal Bay Deception Bay Labrador Core samples Canada Churchill Sea n=80 samples /port

Identification in the lab Toronto Montreal (benthic organisms bigger than 500 µm) Cross referencing protocol

Goldsmit et al (2014) Who?

Total N° of taxa: 236

Cryptogenic:

• 1 Ascidian • 1 Amphipode • 5

Aricidea cf. hartmani, Dipolydora socialis, Onisimus Lumbrineris cf. zatsepini, Heterostigma sp sextoni group Owenia borealis Paraonides nordica

Goldsmit et al (2014) Who?

8 species present in this study have been found to be established NIS or cryptogenic elsewhere in the world

Australia Black Sea

1 2 Polychaetes

The Arctic could be a potential source of NIS for other ports in the world. Alaska This is why it is important to establish a baseline for this 1 region 1

North Pacific North Atlantic

3 Polychaetes 3 Polychaetes

Goldsmit et al (2014) Who? Protocol used for ranking species: which species to select for modelling exercise?

Process for the selection of species

for modelling Step 1

1. Pre-screening analysis Number of species that were pre-screened ≈ 100

1.1 Does the species have -Species with invasive potential. -AIS reported in other Arctic regions. biological/ecological features that allow -Temperature and salinity tolerances survival in Arctic conditions? (all marine species).

Species of high impact ballast- 1.2 Can the species be transported through mediated: NIS established at ports ballast water and/or hull fouling? connected to major Arctic ports

(Chan et al. 2012). Step 2 Who?

2. Ranking of the potential species 1. Ranking of the potential species Canadian Marine Invasive Screening (Ricciardi and Rasmusen, 1998) Tool (CMIST, Drolet 2015)

2.1 Potential donor regions and dispersal Rapid Screening tools can be applied quickly pathways of future invaders with available data

2.2 Biological criteria: general attributes of 17 questions are generalized to the aquatic invasive species invasion process

Present status in the area Rate of introduction 2.3 Invasion history Survival Establishment Spread Impact (Ecological)

Final list of high risk species selected for modelling Who?

CMIST Adjusted risk scores with upper and lower confidence limits for the Canadian Arctic

5.28

3.12 Who?

CMIST Adjusted risk scores with upper and lower confidence limits for the Canadian Arctic

Crustaceans (benthic)

Zooplankton

Barnacles and Macroalgae /amphipods Who? Mean risk scores in a gradient heat matrix

Mean risk scores 3.00

2.80

2.60 P. camtschaticus 2.40 C. opilio A. modestus A. tonsa

2.20 A. limbata M. arenaria L. littorea C. fragile 2.00 U. pinnatifida M. leidyi A. eburneus C. maenas 1.80 C. intestinalis

E. sinesis Lieklihoodof invasion M. manhattensis S. muticum 1.60 M. membranipora B. schlosseri B. violaceus G. tigrinus 1.40 D. polymorpha

1.20

1.00 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40 2.60 2.80 3.00 Impact of invasion Where? When? Species Distribution Modeling

Native Coordinates Input Environmental variables (global) Introduced Presence only

Temperature

Salinity

Ice concentration

Bathymetry

Listes d'espèces envahissantes

Literature Projection for 2050 and 2100. Scénario RCP 4.5 IPCC (intermediate scenario) Where? When?

Canadian Arctic scale

Predictions for 2050

, 1998) ,

Rasmusen

and

Ricciardi

( 1. Ranking of the potential species species potential of the Ranking 1. Results Distribution Change Arctic (taxa)

Present vs 2050

Present vs 2100

Goldsmit et al (in prep) How? Ecological risk assessment Risk = Probability x Consequence

Ballast water source

Overall risk per port, year and species associated with individual vessel discharges How? Ecological risk assessment Risk = Probability x Consequence

Likelihood of introduction Consequence of occurrence

Likelihood of Impact arrival

X X

Likelihood of survival- Habitat establishment sensitivity

Hewitt et al (2006) Therriault et al (2008) Mandrak et al (2012) How?

Likelihood of introduction Consequence of occurrence Likelihood of arrival Impact

Biodiversity Inter-relationships Corrected Transit discharged X time + volume Trophic Habitat interactions X X Likelihood of survival-establishment Habitat sensitivity Overlapping Biological species importance Habitat Time of the suitability X year + Ecol and Hot spots biol signif areas (EBSAs)

Overall risk Imperfect knowledge Uncertainty How? Overall risk: domestic

Moderate to High Likelihood

High of Introduction

Moderate to High

Consequence of occurrence Moderate Moderate

Low Low Low Moderate High

High Moderate Moderate

Low Low Low Moderate High

Goldsmit et al (in prep) How? Overall risk: international

Low Likelihood of

High Introduction

Moderate to High

Consequence of occurrence

Moderate Moderate Low Low

Low Moderate High High

L of arrival: low

Conseq. occur.: high Moderate Moderate L of arrival: moderate Conseq. occur.: low Low Low Low Moderate High Global: moderate

Goldsmit et al (in prep) How? Hull fouling experiment

In-transit survival and post-arrival performance of hull fouling aquatic invasive species

X X Port B Port A Last port of call

X X Port Z Port Y Zebra Mediterranean mussel Dresseina polymorpha Mytilus galloprovincialis How? Hull fouling experiment

Marine Freshwater Marine Survival Marine and Freshwater Combined with changes in temperature Recovery ability: species - Feeding Freshwater Marine Freshwater - Response time in valve closure - Condition Index

Zebra Mussel Gallo Blue Mussel Dresseina polymorpha Mytilus galloprovincialis Results Distribution Change Global and Arctic (all NIS)

Global Arctic

Present vs 2050

HS: -4.0 HS: +5.8

Poleward shift Present vs 2100

HS: -4.2 HS: +14.1 Goldsmit et al (in prep)