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Table of Contents 2 1. If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties' candidates would you be most likely to support? Gender AGE EDUCATION Decided Voters & Leaners Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ <HS HS Post Sec Univ Grad The The The Some other Ontario Ontario Ontario party Progressive Liberal New Conservati Party Democratic ve Party Party A B C D E F G H I J K L M Base: All Respondents (unwtd) 802 388 414 215 307 280 28 126 342 306 256 181 161 34 Base: All Respondents (wtd) 802 385 417 226 321 255 68 327 261 145 229 174 158 42 207 114 92 38 78 91 18 78 65 45 207 - - - The Ontario Progressive Conservative Party 26% 30% 22% 17% 24% 36% 27% 24% 25% 31% 90% - - - CD ** KL * ** 147 73 74 69 43 34 9 58 45 36 - 147 - - The Ontario Liberal Party 18% 19% 18% 31% 14% 13% 13% 18% 17% 25% - 84% - - DE ** H JL * ** 145 61 84 32 62 51 7 69 47 23 - - 145 - The Ontario New Democratic Party 18% 16% 20% 14% 19% 20% 10% 21% 18% 16% - - 92% - ** JK* ** 36 21 15 13 17 6 6 17 8 4 - - - 36 Some other party 4% 5% 4% 6% 5% 2% 10% 5% 3% 3% - - - 85% ** * ** 45 27 18 14 26 5 14 13 13 5 - - - - Would not vote/none/would spoil ballot 6% 7% 4% 6% 8% 2% 21% 4% 5% 4% - - - - E ** * ** 222 89 133 60 94 68 13 92 84 33 23 27 13 6 Don't know/not sure 28% 23% 32% 27% 29% 27% 20% 28% 32% 22% 10% 16% 8% 15% A ** I * ** 802 385 417 226 321 255 68 327 261 145 229 174 158 42 Sigma 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Statistics: Overlap formulae used - Column Proportions: Columns Tested (5%): A/B,C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K/L/M Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) - Column Means: Columns Tested (5%): A/B,C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K/L/M Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) Table of contents 2. Well, which party would you say you are leaning towards? Gender AGE EDUCATION Decided Voters & Leaners Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ <HS HS Post Sec Univ Grad The The The Some other Ontario Ontario Ontario party Progressive Liberal New Conservati Party Democratic ve Party Party A B C D E F G H I J K L M Base: All Answering (unwtd) 216 89 127 57 80 79 5 34 107 70 34 25 20 5 Base: All Answering (wtd) 222 89 133 60 94 68 13 92 84 33 23 27 13 6 23 10 13 2 7 13 - 6 11 7 23 - - - The Ontario Progressive Conservative Party 10% 11% 10% 4% 8% 20% - 6% 13% 21% 100% - - - * * * * C* ** * * G* ** ** ** ** 27 12 15 11 11 5 - 15 8 4 - 27 - - The Ontario Liberal Party 12% 14% 11% 18% 12% 8% - 16% 10% 13% - 100% - - * * * * * ** * * * ** ** ** ** 13 4 9 2 5 5 - - 9 3 - - 13 - The Ontario New Democratic Party 6% 4% 7% 4% 6% 7% - - 11% 10% - - 100% - * * * * * ** * G* G* ** ** ** ** 6 5 2 1 2 4 3 - 3 - - - - 6 Some other party 3% 5% 1% 1% 2% 6% 25% - 3% - - - - 100% * * * * * ** * * * ** ** ** ** 9 7 2 9 - - 2 5 1 1 - - - - Would not vote 4% 7% 2% 15% - - 17% 6% 1% 2% - - - - * * DE* * * ** * * * ** ** ** ** 144 52 92 35 68 41 8 66 52 18 - - - - Don't know/not sure 65% 58% 69% 58% 73% 60% 58% 72% 62% 55% - - - - * * * * * ** * * * ** ** ** ** 222 89 133 60 94 68 13 92 84 33 23 27 13 6 Sigma 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Statistics: Overlap formulae used - Column Proportions: Columns Tested (5%): A/B,C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K/L/M Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) - Column Means: Columns Tested (5%): A/B,C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K/L/M Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) Table of contents 1/2. Net vote Combine Table (leaners included) Gender AGE EDUCATION Decided Voters & Leaners Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ <HS HS Post Sec Univ Grad The The The Some other Ontario Ontario Ontario party Progressive Liberal New Conservati Party Democratic ve Party Party A B C D E F G H I J K L M Base: All Respondents (unwtd) 802 388 414 215 307 280 28 126 342 306 256 181 161 34 Base: All Respondents (wtd) 802 385 417 226 321 255 68 327 261 145 229 174 158 42 229 124 105 40 85 104 18 83 76 52 229 - - - The Ontario Progressive Conservative Party 29% 32% 25% 18% 27% 41% 27% 25% 29% 36% 100% - - - CD ** G KL * ** 174 85 89 80 55 39 9 72 53 40 - 174 - - The Ontario Liberal Party 22% 22% 21% 35% 17% 15% 13% 22% 20% 28% - 100% - - DE ** H JL * ** 158 65 93 34 68 56 7 69 56 26 - - 158 - The Ontario New Democratic Party 20% 17% 22% 15% 21% 22% 10% 21% 22% 18% - - 100% - ** JK* ** 42 25 17 13 19 10 10 17 11 4 - - - 42 Some other party 5% 7% 4% 6% 6% 4% 14% 5% 4% 3% - - - 100% ** * ** 54 34 21 23 26 5 17 18 14 6 - - - - Would not vote/none/would spoil ballot 7% 9% 5% 10% 8% 2% 25% 6% 5% 4% - - - - E E ** * ** 144 52 92 35 68 41 8 66 52 18 - - - - Don't know/not sure 18% 13% 22% 15% 21% 16% 11% 20% 20% 12% - - - - A ** I * ** 802 385 417 226 321 255 68 327 261 145 229 174 158 42 Sigma 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Statistics: Overlap formulae used - Column Proportions: Columns Tested (5%): A/B,C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K/L/M Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) - Column Means: Columns Tested (5%): A/B,C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K/L/M Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) Table of contents 1/2. Net vote Combine Table (decided voters leaners included) Gender AGE EDUCATION Decided Voters & Leaners Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ <HS HS Post Sec Univ Grad The The The Some other Ontario Ontario Ontario party Progressive Liberal New Conservati Party Democratic ve Party Party A B C D E F G H I J K L M Base: Decided Voters (unwtd) 632 315 317 168 232 232 18 97 260 257 256 181 161 34 Base: Decided Voters (wtd) 604 300 304 168 226 210 44 243 196 122 229 174 158 42 229 124 105 40 85 104 18 83 76 52 229 - - - The Ontario Progressive Conservative Party 38% 41% 35% 24% 38% 50% 42% 34% 39% 43% 100% - - - * C CD ** * KL * ** 174 85 89 80 55 39 9 72 53 40 - 174 - - The Ontario Liberal Party 29% 28% 29% 48% 24% 19% 21% 30% 27% 33% - 100% - - DE* ** * JL * ** 158 65 93 34 68 56 7 69 56 26 - - 158 - The Ontario New Democratic Party 26% 22% 31% 20% 30% 27% 15% 29% 29% 21% - - 100% - * ** * JK* ** 42 25 17 13 19 10 10 17 11 4 - - - 42 Some other party 7% 8% 6% 8% 8% 5% 23% 7% 6% 3% - - - 100% * ** * * ** 604 300 304 168 226 210 44 243 196 122 229 174 158 42 Sigma 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Statistics: Overlap formulae used - Column Proportions: Columns Tested (5%): A/B,C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K/L/M Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) - Column Means: Columns Tested (5%): A/B,C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K/L/M Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) Table of contents 3. Which of these statements is closest to your point of view? Gender AGE EDUCATION Decided Voters & Leaners Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ <HS HS Post Sec Univ Grad The The The Some other Ontario Ontario Ontario party Progressive Liberal New Conservati Party Democratic ve Party Party A B C D E F G H I J K L M Base: All Respondents (unwtd) 802 388 414 215 307 280 28 126 342 306 256 181 161 34 Base: All Respondents (wtd) 802 385 417 226 321 255 68 327 261 145 229 174 158 42 159 84 75 67 45 47 24 52 44 38 5 109 9 2 Wynne government has done a good job and deserves re- election 20% 22% 18% 29% 14% 19% 35% 16% 17% 26% 2% 63% 5% 4% DE ** GH JL * ** 643 301 342 159 276 208 44 275 217 107 224 65 150 41 Time for another provincial party to take over 80% 78% 82% 71% 86% 81% 65% 84% 83% 74% 98% 37% 95% 96% C C ** I I K K* ** 802 385 417 226 321 255 68 327 261 145 229 174 158 42 Sigma 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Statistics: Overlap formulae used - Column Proportions: Columns Tested (5%): A/B,C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K/L/M Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) - Column Means: Columns Tested (5%): A/B,C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K/L/M Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) Table of contents 4. Thinking about the Liberal government in Ontario under the leadership of Premier Kathleen Wynne, from what you have seen, read, or heard, would you say that you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of their performance? Gender AGE EDUCATION Decided Voters & Leaners Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ <HS HS Post Sec Univ Grad The The The Some other Ontario Ontario Ontario party Progressive Liberal New Conservati Party Democratic ve Party Party A B C D E F G H I J K L M Base: All Respondents (unwtd) 802 388 414 215 307 280 28 126 342 306 256 181 161 34 Base: All Respondents (wtd) 802 385 417 226 321 255 68 327 261 145 229 174 158 42 245 126 119 100 88 58 29 94 65 57 21 127 34 11 Top 2 Box (Net) 31% 33% 29% 44% 27% 23% 43% 29% 25% 39% 9% 73% 21% 26% DE ** GH JL J* ** 40 22 18 21 7 11 5 12 12 10 3 21 6 - Strongly approve 5% 6% 4% 9% 2% 4% 7% 4% 4% 7% 1% 12% 4% - D ** JL * ** 206 104 101 79 80 46 24 82 53 47 18 106 28 11 Somewhat approve 26% 27% 24% 35% 25% 18% 35% 25% 20% 32% 8% 61% 18% 26% E ** H JL J* ** 557 259 298 125 233 198 39 233 196 88 209 47 124 31 Bottom 2 Box (Net) 69% 67% 71% 56% 73% 77% 57% 71% 75% 61% 91% 27% 79% 74% C C ** I I KL K* ** 194 90 104 71 69 55 16 73 70 36 34 42 40 8 Somewhat disapprove 24% 23% 25% 31% 22% 21% 23% 22% 27% 25% 15% 24% 25% 20% ** J* ** 362 169 194 55 164 143 23 161 127 52 174 5 84 23 Strongly disapprove 45% 44% 46% 24% 51% 56% 34% 49% 48% 36% 76% 3% 53% 55% C C ** I I KL K* ** 802 385 417 226 321 255 68 327 261 145 229 174 158 42 Sigma 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Statistics: Overlap formulae used - Column Proportions: Columns Tested (5%): A/B,C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K/L/M Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) - Column Means: Columns Tested (5%): A/B,C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K/L/M Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) Table of contents 5.
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