DOCSLIB.ORG

The Value of Vision in Radical Technological Innovation A

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
The Value of Vision in Radical Technological Innovation A THE VALUE OF VISION IN RADICAL TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING AND THE COMMITTEE ON GRADUATE STUDIES OF STANFORD UNIVERSITY IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Tammy L. Carleton September 2010 © 2011 by Tammy Lee Carleton. All Rights Reserved. Re-distributed by Stanford University under license with the author. This dissertation is online at: http://purl.stanford.edu/mk388mb2729 ii I certify that I have read this dissertation and that, in my opinion, it is fully adequate in scope and quality as a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Larry Leifer, Primary Adviser I certify that I have read this dissertation and that, in my opinion, it is fully adequate in scope and quality as a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Riitta Katila I certify that I have read this dissertation and that, in my opinion, it is fully adequate in scope and quality as a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Chuck House Approved for the Stanford University Committee on Graduate Studies. Patricia J. Gumport, Vice Provost Graduate Education This signature page was generated electronically upon submission of this dissertation in electronic format. An original signed hard copy of the signature page is on file in University Archives. iii THE VALUE OF VISION IN RADICAL TECHNOLOGICAL INVENTION ABSTRACT Is a technological vision needed to drive radical or disruptive innovations? Few studies have discussed a possible relationship between the formation of a technological vision and the sustained creation of radical innovation. Even fewer have analyzed a relationship systematically, and finding a suitable data set has proven to be a challenge to scholars. Since 1958, the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has sponsored high risk, high reward research and development that bridge the gap between fundamental discoveries and their military uses. The agency’s sole charter has been radical innovation, providing 52 years of sustained practice. This study draws on 59 interviews with DARPA personnel and funding recipients, whose time at the agency spans 45 of those years. Historical interviews and agency documents further validated the data set. Using grounded theory methodology, this study identifies the importance of vision in radical technological innovation, synthesizing prior studies from organizational innovation, technology management, visionary leadership, and industrial research and development. Four major findings are discussed, which address the timing and criteria for innovation visions, specific mechanisms for the formation of visions, the role of socialization on envisioning, and the corresponding governance model. These findings, supported by empirical evidence, add to the current understanding of technological visions and radical innovation research. iv THE VALUE OF VISION IN RADICAL TECHNOLOGICAL INVENTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank the following individuals, who have supported my research with extraordinary contributions: Chuck House, Riitta Katila, and especially Larry Leifer for being willing to think boldly in the spirit of DARPA Hard; John Cockayne for his generosity of spirit and funds; William Cockayne for his steadfast faith and provocation; and Jon and Suni Carleton for ensuring the final chapters were drafted. v THE VALUE OF VISION IN RADICAL TECHNOLOGICAL INVENTION TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract.........................................................................................................................iv List of Tables ..............................................................................................................viii List of Illustrations.......................................................................................................ix Chapter 1 Introduction ................................................................................................ 1 Research Opportunity..............................................................................................................2 Research Plan ..........................................................................................................................5 Research Contribution.............................................................................................................7 Chapter 2 Literature Review ....................................................................................... 9 Radical Technological Innovation...........................................................................................9 A Time for Discovery & Invention...................................................................................12 Processes of Radical Innovation .......................................................................................13 Organizational Sustainability............................................................................................17 Visions of Technology ..........................................................................................................17 Visionaries and Other Innovation Roles................................................................................21 Innovation and DARPA ........................................................................................................23 Organizational Structure ...................................................................................................24 Processes of Innovation.....................................................................................................29 Measures of Program Success...........................................................................................35 Conclusion.............................................................................................................................36 Chapter 3 Methodology.............................................................................................. 37 Grounded Theory Methodology............................................................................................37 Iterative Process of Data Collection and Analysis ................................................................39 Theoretical Sampling.............................................................................................................43 Method Limitations ...............................................................................................................44 Conclusion.............................................................................................................................45 Chapter 4 Data Set...................................................................................................... 47 Data Sources..........................................................................................................................49 Subject Profile .......................................................................................................................53 DARPA Personnel ............................................................................................................54 Funding Recipients............................................................................................................58 DARPA Office Affiliation ................................................................................................59 Conclusion.............................................................................................................................60 Chapter 5 Analysis...................................................................................................... 62 Process Model of Radical Innovation....................................................................................62 Stage 1: Recruitment.........................................................................................................63 Stage 2: Vision Formulation .............................................................................................63 Stage 3: Program Launch..................................................................................................64 Stage 4: Portfolio Management.........................................................................................64 Stage 5: Technology Transfer ...........................................................................................65 Vision and Recruitment.........................................................................................................67 Recruiting Criteria and Evaluation....................................................................................70 Channels for Recruiting Technology Visionaries.............................................................74 Vision Formulation................................................................................................................76 Sources of Technology Visions ........................................................................................77 vi THE VALUE OF VISION IN RADICAL TECHNOLOGICAL INVENTION Criteria of a Radical Vision...............................................................................................78 Advancing Partial Visions of Technology ............................................................................81 Expert Workshops.............................................................................................................83 Proof-of-Concepts.............................................................................................................84
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Harnessing the Innovation Opportunities of Novel Technologies and Technological Change
    Business Research Methodologies and the need for Economies of Scale in the Business Research Process: Harnessing the Innovation Opportunities of Novel Technologies and Technological Change Chris William Callaghan University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa [email protected] DOI: 10.34190/JBRM.17.3.007 Abstract: Theory and evidence suggests that returns to research and research and development are currently declining. This paper seeks to identify patterns in the use of business research methodologies in certain of the latest articles published at the forefront of the field of business research innovation, from its leading journal. This literature is used to identify the current front line of business research methodologies at the forefront of the field. Propositions are derived from novel theory, and are critically juxtaposed against identified topics and methodologies in these articles. In so doing, the conceptual distance of the front line of empirical research in the field from the radical front line of theory in the broader field is quantified. Methodological implications are discussed and recommendations are made for the development of a future research agenda. Keywords: Research methodology; Innovation; Technology; Technological change; Management; Crowdsourcing 1. Introduction Global growth in volumes of goods and services- produced using a given amount of labour and capital- has over time fundamentally determined growth in human living standards (Fabina and Wright, 2013). For example, the world’s gross domestic product (GDP) has risen over 20-fold since 1850, globally transforming standards of living (Stewart, 2018). This rise in our standards of living has therefore been ascribed to technical progress, measured as total factor productivity- the contribution to growth of how effectively we combine given amounts of labour and capital.
    [Show full text]
  • Public Support for Science and Innovation
    Public Support for Science and Innovation A supplementary submission to the Productivity Commission from CSIRO responding to the draft report December 2006 Introduction and overview CSIRO believes that the draft report on public support for science and innovation makes a substantial contribution to discussions on the rationale for such support and on the benefits that flow to Australia from public investment in science. The findings of the report result from a rigorous analysis of available data using a variety of methods; acknowledge the considerable difficulties that can exist in trying to quantify even the economic returns that result from public sector support for science and innovation; and take a realistically broad view of the range of tangible and intangible benefits that such investment can produce. The report and the debate it generates should provide an opportunity to re-set the baselines for what publicly supported research does, and why. CSIRO in general supports the findings and conclusions of the report, which are fair, balanced and recognise the uncertainties that will always exist. While the findings that there ‘are strong rationales for the provision of public funding support for science and innovation’ and that ‘there are significant positive economic, social and environmental impacts from publicly supported science and innovation’ are not surprising, they are none the less welcome as the conclusions of an independent disinterested, technical study. Another important feature of the report is that it makes explicit the diversity of pathways through which science can have impact. This puts commercialisation into perspective as only one of many possible pathways to impact, noting that too great a focus on commercialisation can divert attention from some broader and even more important outcomes of research.
    [Show full text]
  • The Internet and Isi: Four Decades of Innovation
    THE INTERNET AND ISI: FOUR DECADES OF INNOVATION ROD BECKSTROM President and Chief Executive Officer Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) 40th Anniversary of USC Information Sciences Institute 26 April 2012 As prepared for delivery It’s an honor to be here today to mark the 40th anniversary of the University of Southern California’s Information Sciences Institute. Thank you to Herb Schorr for inviting me to speak with you today and participate in the day’s events. When he steps down he will leave some very large shoes to fill. When I received Herb’s invitation, I seized upon it as an opportunity to come before you to express the sincere gratitude that my colleagues and I feel for the work and support of ISI. When I think of ICANN and its development, and all we have accomplished, I never forget that we stand upon the shoulders of giants, many of whom contributed to my remarks today. In fact, I owe a special debt of gratitude to Bob Kahn, who has been a mentor to me. I am honored that he took the time to walk through a number of details in the history I have been asked to relate. The organizers asked me to speak about the history of ISI and ICANN. They also invited me to talk a bit about the future of the Internet. In my role as President and CEO of ICANN, I have many speaking engagements that are forward looking. They are opportunities to talk about ICANN’s work and how it will usher in the next phase in the history of the global, unified Internet that many of you have helped to create.
    [Show full text]
  • Radical Or Incremental: Where Does R&D Policy Hit ?
    Dis cus si on Paper No. 14-106 Radical or Incremental: Where Does R&D Policy Hit ? Mathias Beck, Cindy Lopes-Bento, and Andrea Schenker-Wickia Dis cus si on Paper No. 14-106 Radical or Incremental: Where Does R&D Policy Hit ? Mathias Beck, Cindy Lopes-Bento, and Andrea Schenker-Wickia Download this ZEW Discussion Paper from our ftp server: http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp14106.pdf Die Dis cus si on Pape rs die nen einer mög lichst schnel len Ver brei tung von neue ren For schungs arbei ten des ZEW. Die Bei trä ge lie gen in allei ni ger Ver ant wor tung der Auto ren und stel len nicht not wen di ger wei se die Mei nung des ZEW dar. Dis cus si on Papers are inten ded to make results of ZEW research prompt ly avai la ble to other eco no mists in order to encou ra ge dis cus si on and sug gesti ons for revi si ons. The aut hors are sole ly respon si ble for the con tents which do not neces sa ri ly repre sent the opi ni on of the ZEW. Radical or incremental: Where does R&D policy hit?* Mathias Beck a, Cindy Lopes-Bento a,b,c and Andrea Schenker-Wickia a) Univesity of Zurich b) K.U.Leuven, Dept. of Managerial Economics, Strategy and Innovation c) Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim This version: September 2014 Abstract This study investigates the efficacy of public R&D support.
    [Show full text]
  • The Consensus Protocol
    8/5/2020 The Consensus Protocol FEATURE AUGUST 2020 The Consensus Protocol How a radical process, invented to build the ARPANET, spawned history's greatest tool for collaborative work BY STEVE CROCKER UCLA’s Boelter Hall housed one of the four original ARPANET nodes. ach March, July, and November, we are reminded that the Internet is not Equite the mature, stable technology that it seems to be. We rely on the Internet as an essential tool for our economic, social, educational, and political lives. But when the Internet Engineering Task Force meets every four months at an open conference that bounces from continent to continent, more than 1,000 people from around the world gather with change on their minds. Their vision of the global network that all humanity shares is dynamic, evolving, and continuously improving. Their efforts combine with the contributions of myriad others to ensure that the Internet always works but is never done, never complete. The rapid yet orderly evolution of the Internet is all the more remarkable considering the highly unusual way it happens: without a company, a government, or a board of directors in charge. Nothing about digital communications technology suggests that it should be self-organizing or, for that matter, fundamentally reliable. We enjoy an Internet that is both of those at once because multiple generations of network developers have embraced a principle and a https://read.nxtbook.com/ieee/spectrum/spectrum_na_august_2020/the_consensus_protocol.html?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTmpWh h b i i h hi f h l haVpXSmxOMll6TURZeSIsInQiOiIyc280i i l i h … 1/12 8/5/2020 The Consensus Protocol process that have been quite rare in the history of technology.
    [Show full text]
  • The Impact of Regulation on Innovation
    Nesta Working Paper No. 12/02 The Impact of Regulation on Innovation Knut Blind The Impact of Regulation on Innovation Knut Blind Technische Universität Berlin, Chair of Innovation Economics Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Chair of Standardisation Nesta Working Paper 12/02 January 2012 www.nesta.org.uk/wp12‐02 Abstract This paper is part of the Compendium of Evidence on the Effectiveness of Innovation Policy Intervention. It examines the evidence on the influence of various types of regulation on innovation. Based on a conceptual approach distinguishing between the positive incentive functions of regulations and the negative compliance burden, the study covers economic, social and institutional regulations. Existing empirical analyses are surveyed, which are characterised by rather heterogeneous methodological approaches, data bases and results. In summary, the numerous empirical studies on the impact of different types of regulation on innovation present a rather heterogeneous picture both regarding the type of regulation, the sectors, the companies and the time horizon of the impacts. Finally, it has to be noted that most quantitative studies about the impact of regulations are not able to distinguish between the influence of changes in the legislation and of their enforcement and the related compliance of companies. Research gaps still exist in the development of appropriate indicators of the regulatory framework. Furthermore, the processes within companies to react to regulations deserve more attention to understand the rather heterogeneous impacts on innovations. Finally, regulations are per se not only exogenous to companies, but often there is close interaction between regulators and the regulated companies, which should further explain some of the existing ambivalence.
    [Show full text]
  • Features of the Internet History the Norwegian Contribution to the Development PAAL SPILLING and YNGVAR LUNDH
    Features of the Internet history The Norwegian contribution to the development PAAL SPILLING AND YNGVAR LUNDH This article provides a short historical and personal view on the development of packet-switching, computer communications and Internet technology, from its inception around 1969 until the full- fledged Internet became operational in 1983. In the early 1990s, the internet backbone at that time, the National Science Foundation network – NSFNET, was opened up for commercial purposes. At that time there were already several operators providing commercial services outside the internet. This presentation is based on the authors’ participation during parts of the development and on literature Paal Spilling is studies. This provides a setting in which the Norwegian participation and contribution may be better professor at the understood. Department of informatics, Univ. of Oslo and University 1 Introduction Defense (DOD). It is uncertain when DoD really Graduate Center The concept of computer networking started in the standardized on the entire protocol suite built around at Kjeller early 1960s at the Massachusetts Institute of Technol- TCP/IP, since for several years they also followed the ogy (MIT) with the vision of an “On-line community ISO standards track. of people”. Computers should facilitate communica- tions between people and be a support for human The development of the Internet, as we know it today, decision processes. In 1961 an MIT PhD thesis by went through three phases. The first one was the Leonard Kleinrock introduced some of the earliest research and development phase, sponsored and theoretical results on queuing networks. Around the supervised by ARPA. Research groups that actively same time a series of Rand Corporation papers, contributed to the development process and many mainly authored by Paul Baran, sketched a hypotheti- who explored its potential for resource sharing were cal system for communication while under attack that permitted to connect to and use the network.
    [Show full text]
  • How Are Radical Innovations Developed? an Analytical Framework to Examine Radical Innovations Based on the Values of Cohesion Approach
    Paper to be presented at the DRUID 2012 on June 19 to June 21 at CBS, Copenhagen, Denmark, How are radical innovations developed? An analytical framework to examine radical innovations based on the Values of Cohesion approach. LUCIA HELENA H. T. VIEGAS Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos - FINEP The Brazilian Agency of Innovation [email protected] JOSÉ VITOR BOMTEMPO Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro Escola de Química, Área de Gestão e Inovação Tecnológi [email protected] Abstract Our research proposes an analytical framework to examine radical innovations in the Kuhnian sense, based on the comprehension of the values of cohesion of a paradigm. We define radical innovation as the resultant of both a mode of production as a systemic conformation, and an institutional mode. Our research complements existing systemic studies on radical innovations, but under a different vision. Our approach takes into account the structural dimension that maintains a paradigm cohesive. The proposed framework is grounded on the structuralist approach, typical of studies of Human/Social Sciences (e.g., the works of Cl. Lévi-Strauss, F. de Saussure, W. Dilthey). This perspective enables the study of those factors that are manifested as a virtuality: as a belief, an ideological symbol, a cultural value, etc. Our framework was conceived to capture the virtualities, which express the conditions for the development of radical innovations. The proposed analytical framework based on values of cohesion - VCF is constituted of three analytical dimensions: the wheel of relationships, the force of cohesion, and the steps of transmission. The proposed VCF was validated to examine the potential for radical innovation in the change of raw materials sources for the Brazilian chemical industry, from fossils to renewables.
    [Show full text]
  • Digital Innovation: a Review and Synthesis
    Received: 14 December 2017 Revised: 28 January 2018 Accepted: 29 January 2018 DOI: 10.1111/isj.12193 RESEARCH ARTICLE Digital innovation: A review and synthesis Rajiv Kohli1 | Nigel P. Melville2 1 Raymond A. Mason School of Business, College of William & Mary, PO Box 8795, Abstract Williamsburg, VA, USA Organizations are under increasing pressure to apply digital technol- 2 Stephen M. Ross School of Business, ogies to renew and transform their business models. A great deal of University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA research has examined specific phenomena, such as adoption ante- Correspondence cedents and design methods. However, it is unclear what we know Rajiv Kohli, Raymond A. Mason School of in totality, including what research streams exist, how they fit Business, College of William & Mary, PO Box 8795, Williamsburg, VA, USA. together, and fruitful opportunities for new knowledge develop- Email: [email protected] ment. We combine scientometric and systematic literature review methodologies to examine 7 dimensions of an adapted theoretical framework: initiation; development; implementation; exploitation; the role of the external competitive environment; role of internal organizational environment; and product, service, and process out- comes. From a macro perspective, we find vastly uneven coverage of research streams, diversity and diffusiveness of research, and knowledge and learning as an underlying conceptual pillar. Com- bined with our summary of each of the 7 research streams, these findings suggest several areas of future research, which we develop by identifying oppositions and tensions. KEYWORDS agency, digital, innovation, scientometrics 1 | INTRODUCTION Organizations are under increasing pressure to apply digital technologies to renew and transform their business models.
    [Show full text]
  • The People Who Invented the Internet Source: Wikipedia's History of the Internet
    The People Who Invented the Internet Source: Wikipedia's History of the Internet PDF generated using the open source mwlib toolkit. See http://code.pediapress.com/ for more information. PDF generated at: Sat, 22 Sep 2012 02:49:54 UTC Contents Articles History of the Internet 1 Barry Appelman 26 Paul Baran 28 Vint Cerf 33 Danny Cohen (engineer) 41 David D. Clark 44 Steve Crocker 45 Donald Davies 47 Douglas Engelbart 49 Charles M. Herzfeld 56 Internet Engineering Task Force 58 Bob Kahn 61 Peter T. Kirstein 65 Leonard Kleinrock 66 John Klensin 70 J. C. R. Licklider 71 Jon Postel 77 Louis Pouzin 80 Lawrence Roberts (scientist) 81 John Romkey 84 Ivan Sutherland 85 Robert Taylor (computer scientist) 89 Ray Tomlinson 92 Oleg Vishnepolsky 94 Phil Zimmermann 96 References Article Sources and Contributors 99 Image Sources, Licenses and Contributors 102 Article Licenses License 103 History of the Internet 1 History of the Internet The history of the Internet began with the development of electronic computers in the 1950s. This began with point-to-point communication between mainframe computers and terminals, expanded to point-to-point connections between computers and then early research into packet switching. Packet switched networks such as ARPANET, Mark I at NPL in the UK, CYCLADES, Merit Network, Tymnet, and Telenet, were developed in the late 1960s and early 1970s using a variety of protocols. The ARPANET in particular led to the development of protocols for internetworking, where multiple separate networks could be joined together into a network of networks. In 1982 the Internet Protocol Suite (TCP/IP) was standardized and the concept of a world-wide network of fully interconnected TCP/IP networks called the Internet was introduced.
    [Show full text]
  • Defense Policy Newsletter - March 3, 2020
    3/4/2020 Defense Policy Newsletter - March 3, 2020 Subscribe Past Issues Translate This message was prepared by Lewis-Burke Associates LLC. DEFENSE POLICY NEWSLETTER March 3, 2020 | Lewis-Burke Associates LLC IN THIS ISSUE VIEW FROM THE HILL HASC Holds Second Future of Defense Task Force Hearing on “Supercharging the Innovation Base” HASC Members React to DOD’s FY 2021 Request in First Budget Hearing NATIONAL SECURITY NEWS President Trump Releases FY 2021 Budget Request; Prioritizes Near-Term Military Capabilities DOD Faces Continued Turmoil with Additional Leadership Changes U.S. Officials Warn of Threats to U.S. Universities and Economy at CSIS China Initiative Conference DOD Adopts Defense Innovation Board’s Recommendations for AI Principles FUNDING AND ENGAGEMENT OPPORTUNITIES https://mailchi.mp/588b1109957d/uf7g4ldspd-2705191?e=2d0d056c11 1/13 3/4/2020 Defense Policy Newsletter - March 3, 2020 DOD Releases FOA for BioIndustrial Manufacturing Innovation Institute Subscribe Past Issues Translate FY 2021 Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (MURI) BAA Department of Defense Releases FY 2021 Defense University Research Instrumentation Program (DURIP) BAA DARPA BTO Announces June 3-4 Biotech Summit DARPA DSO Announces June 24-25 Discover DSO Day DARPA DSO Announces Habitus Program BAA DARPA DSO Announces Proposers Day for High Enthalpy Aperture Technology (HEAT) Program DARPA DSO Announces Proposers Day for Rational Integrated Design of Energetics (RIDE) Program DARPA DSO Announces Proposers Day for Invisible Headlights Program
    [Show full text]
  • (Jake) Feinler
    Oral History of Elizabeth (Jake) Feinler Interviewed by: Marc Weber Recorded: September 10, 2009 Mountain View, California Editor’s note: Material in [square brackets] has been added by Jake Feinler CHM Reference number: X5378.2009 © 2009 Computer History Museum Oral History of Elizabeth (Jake) Feinler Marc Weber: I’m Marc Weber from the Computer History Museum, and I’m here today, September 10th, 2009, with “Jake” Elizabeth Feinler, who was the director of the Network Information Systems Center at SRI. [This group provided the Network Information Center (NIC) for the Arpanet and the Defense Data Network (DDN), a project for which she was the principal investigator from 1973 until 1991. Earlier she was a member of Douglas Engelbart’s Augmentation Research Center (ARC) at SRI [which [housed] the second computer on the Arpanet. It was on this computer that the NIC resided initially.] Jake is also a volunteer here at the museum. [She has donated an extensive collection of early Internet papers to the museum, and has been working on organizing this collection for some time.] Thank you for joining us. Elizabeth (Jake) Feinler: My pleasure. Weber: I really just wanted to start with where did you grow up and what got you interested in technical things or things related to this. Feinler: [Originally I hoped to pursue a career in advertising design, but could not afford the freshman room and board away from home, so I began attending West Liberty State College (now West Liberty University) close to my home. West Liberty was very small then, and the] art department [wasn’t very good.
    [Show full text]