www.africa-confidential.com 23 February 2001 Vol 42 No 4 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL SA/SAUDI ARABIA 2 SOUTH AFRICA Wrong number, again Hopes of reviving the sale of nearly Not so slick 10 billion Rand of G6 artillery A probe into a secret trading oil trading deal costing the country pieces to Saudi seem to have been millions of dollars is threatening some powerful interests scuppered by the 16 February bombardment of Iraq by the USA In what is becoming a test-case for President Thabo Mbeki’s government’s ability to and Britain. Saudi officials are investigate corruption allegations, a major international oil trading company faces claims that putting the deal on hold again, it connived with its business partners in South Africa to bribe local civil servants in a secret saying relations with the USA must take precedence over the South deal that lost the country more than US$3 million. Trafigura, a London-based oil and metals African sale. trading company, is embroiled in the first major kick-back scandal to hit South Africa since 1994. The company’s joint-venture operation in South Africa, High Beam Trading International, is at the centre of an investigation into the alleged payment of $60,000 in cash to officials at CONGO-KINSHASA 3 the state oil company, the Central Energy Fund, in exchange for a lucrative oil trading contract. Hope springs eternal Trafigura robustly denies wrongdoing and senior executive Graham Sharpe insists the South African contract is ‘still valid’. The new President Kabila’s South African state oil officials, whom investigators claim were also promised a further $2 willingness to move negotiations mn. offshore, signed a confidential deal with Trafigura and High Beam in May 2000. The forward offers some hope of an end to the war. But questions have contract was signed without the knowledge of the Ministry of Minerals and Energy – which by now arisen about Western law should have sanctioned the deal – and was sealed without an open tender. It effectively commitment to backing African gave Trafigura/High Beam control over South Africa’s strategic oil stock. The two companies peace-brokering in the region, stood to make US$20 million on the deal over fifteen months, investigators said. Yet Trafigura requiring a UN peace-keeping and High Beam Trading International insist that the deal did not break any existing rules. force large enough to cover a country the size of Western Europe. High Beam’s offices were raided last week by investigators attached to the office of the National Director of Public Prosecutions, Bulelani Ngcuka. The investigators also raided the home and offices of the Central Energy Fund’s former Chairperson, Keith Kunene, who ERITREA 5 allegedly received the bribes for himself and two fellow directors from High Beam’s head, Moses Moloele. Kunene, an icon of black economic empowerment, this week resigned his Winter in Asmara numerous corporate and public positions. It has been getting harder for Asmara to dismiss the growing band of critics Pretoria clamps down of President Issayas as tools of Ethiopian intelligence. A spate of The investigation started in January after the deal was exposed in the South African press. sackings and resignations at the Kunene, as well as the board of the state oil company’s trading arm, was fired. The speed and apex of the regime reflects a new thoroughness of the probe – which hinges on confessions from two state oil officials who say degree of discontent. Outside they received $20,000 each from Kunene for their involvement in the deal – shows a readiness government, critics are increasingly strident. on the part of the Pretoria government to react quickly to corruption allegations. The fact that Kunene is such a high flyer in the black business community gives some credence to the government’s claim that it will move fast to investigate claims of corruption. TANZANIA 6 All this comes at a time when the government, and the African National Congress, are trying to deflect perceptions that they want to dampen a major investigation into impropriety in a Revolution revisited massive 43-billion rand arms deal (AC Vol 42 No 3). Observers wonder whether So far, there have been remarkably few allegations and investigations into grand corruption President Mkapa really appreciates at national government level since 1994. And this is the first time since then that senior civil the damage done to his country’s servants have been investigated for accepting cash kick-backs. Trafigura’s deal with South good image by the Zanzibar elections – or the risks posed by Africa’s Strategic Fuel Fund (SFF) gave it a mandate to replace about ten mn. barrels of crude continuing strife between oil stored down a mineshaft near Johannesburg. The oil was to be sold and replaced by a Tanzania’s equal numbers of different grade of crude in Saldanha Bay, near Cape Town. Muslims and Christians. While the swap took place, Trafigura was to have traded on behalf of the SFF on the oil futures market. The deal was essentially risk-free for Trafigura. According to Kroll Associates, POINTERS 8 an international investigation firm called in by the SA government to probe the deal, Trafigura’s contract was excessively generous in that it provided the company with a gain of about $3 a UK/Africa, Côte barrel, compared to the average agency fee of between 15 and 80 US cents a barrel. Kroll’s investigation, which is quoted in court papers filed for last week’s raid, concluded d’Ivoire and Sudan that the deal was ‘unduly advantageous’ to Trafigura/High Beam and ‘potentially prejudicial 23 February 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 4 Wrong number, again South Africa’s hopes of reviving the sale of nearly 10 (who had offered his private jet for President Mbeki to billion Rand (US$1.4 bn.) of G6 artillery pieces to travel to Saudi), Al Baraka was to have raised the money Saudi Arabia seem to have been scuppered by the 16 for the Saudi purchase, along with $600 million February bombardment of Iraq by the United States investment. and Britain. Saudi officials are putting the deal on Mbeki’s delegation (which included Defence Minister hold again, saying that their military and trading Mosiuoa Lekota) discussed technological and military relations with the USA (which has bases in Saudi) must cooperation, which could still yield substantial Saudi take precedence over the South African sale. investment. One mooted investment was to have been in Negotiations for the G6 deal started in 1996 and were KMM Review, the media company led by Moeletsi suspended in 1998 after Saudi officials blamed Mbeki, the President’s brother, and linked to the foreign- repayments to the USA for the Gulf War for a cash owned media conglomerate, Endemol. Late last year, squeeze on the kingdom’s arms budget. By then, Saudi Shezi Nackvi (via his company Samaha Investments) officials and middlemen had received over R100 million bought into KMM with a 33 percent share valued at $2 in sweeteners from South Africa. mn. Late last year, former South African military attaché It’s undecided whether the media investment will be Colonel Pierre Pienaar was sent to Riyadh (by G6 in a newspaper or a controlling share in Midi, the manufacturers Denel) to move the deal forward with company which controls an independent SA television the Saudi authorities. He seems to have been defeated channel called ‘e-tv’. A decade ago, Moeletsi Mbeki, at by a combination of strongarm US sales tactics (its own the time promoting union interests, had tried products compete directly with the G6) and Saudi palace unsuccessfully to float a newspaper supporting the intrigues. African National Congress. Now the plan may be revived News of the scuppered deal came just before President as ANC think tanks say the government’s image is being Thabo Mbeki’s 17-19 February state visit to Saudi systematically distorted by a hostile media. Arabia. Although the state South African Broadcasting Last month, senior ANC officials, such as Corporation insisted the trip – which included communications chief Joel Netshitenzhe and ANC discussions with King Fahd and the de facto ruler, information czar Smuts Ngonyama, argued for the Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdelaziz – was a success, removal of the SABC’s non-ANC supporting Chairman, SA-Saudi relations are now weighted heavily in favour Vincent Mpai, in favour of former Ambassador to of Riyadh. Both countries were involved in mediation France Barbara Masekela, sister of trumpeter Hugh. over Libyan officials accused of the Lockerbie bombing. For now, the Saudi interests have got what they wanted, Last week, Communications Minister Ivy Matsepe the award of the third cellular licence to the Cell C Casaburri awarded South Africa’s third cellular consortium, although a judicial review of the award telephone licence to the Saudi and US-backed Cell C process, brought by rival bidder NextCom, is pending. consortium in a move seen as paving the way for Scheduled to take place in March-April, bizarrely the Mbeki’s trade negotiations. We hear the G6 deal was review was waived after a cabinet meeting on 14 stalled on orders from Crown Prince Abdullah, who February, at which there was reportedly vigorous dissent wants instead to build a new rail network in Saudi on the issue. Arabia and Africa in partnership with South African Matsepe Casaburri (who had been given legal advice contractors. A favoured route would link the mineral- that the licence could be awarded despite the judicial rich region of south-east Congo-Kinshasa to a South review) was instructed to announce the multi-billion African port. Rand award ahead of Mbeki’s departure for Saudi Arabia. At the centre of the failed G6 deal was financier NextCom says Casaburri’s announcement may play out Shezi Nackvi, negotiator for the Saudi-owned Al Baraka in the government’s favour. We hear that the threats by Bank (which also handled the finances for Saudi Oger, its determined Chief Executive, Bushy Kelobonye, to the Cell C backer). Abdullah Kamel, son of the continue legal action may be brinkmanship. By pushing founder of Al Baraka, Sheikh Salih Kamel, is also the the issue now, Kelobonye may be able to secure a Middle East agent for Denel. Under the deal, which substantial slice of the Cell-C pie in an out-of-court was backed by Saudi Prince Bandar bin Abdel Aziz settlement.

to the State’. Trafigura has denied that either it or High Beam One of the statements also quotes one of the officials involved paid bribes to secure the deal. While Moloele is heavily as saying that Kunene had told him that ‘Trafigura have people implicated, there is as yet no evidence as to where he received who can help us open foreign bank accounts’. High Beam the dollars from. Trading International, meanwhile, was set up in 1999, with this One of the state oil officials involved in the deal said in an deal being its first venture. affidavit that when Kunene gave him the cash – in a white High Beam and Trafigura have so far stuck together over the envelope in new $100 bills - he was under the impression that allegations. Trafigura officials in London emphasise that they the money was from Trafigura. are a minority partner in the High Beam joint venture company

2 23 February 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 4 incorporated in South Africa. The deal was wrapped up in London by Trafigura after Kunene and his colleagues had dined CONGO-KINSHASA at the house of Claude Dauphin, the Chairman of Trafigura, who worked with Marc Rich from 1974 to 1993. Rich repeatedly broke the United Nations sanctions to supply oil to apartheid South Africa. Last year, Trafigura was in unsuccessful merger Hope springs eternal talks with Rich (who received a controversial pardon from Young President Kabila has done more than outgoing President Bill Clinton). expected for peace Trafigura is also directly accused by the SFF of having been Just when there are glimmerings of hope for an end to the war, new party to the bribes in a summons filed against it and High Beam questions have arisen about Western commitment to backing African in the SA High Court as part of a legal battle to have the peace-brokering in the region. Hopes rest firstly on Congo’s new contract shelved. The SFF cites ‘corrupt practices’ as one of President, Joseph Kabila, whose willingness to move negotiations several reasons why the contract should be abandoned. The forward prompted regional leaders to resuscitate the Lusaka peace plan state oil company has already paid out $2.9 mn. in terms of the at talks in the Zambian capital last week (AC Vol 42 Nos 2 & 3). contract which, although publicly repudiated by the Minister of Secondly, they rest on the readiness of the political and military leaders Minerals and Energy when the scandal broke in December, has of the main countries involved in the war - especially Angola, Rwanda not yet been struck out by a court. In addition to shelving the and Uganda - to talk through the problems face-to-face. contract, the SFF wants to recover from Trafigura/High Beam Yet most Western diplomats see no end in sight. One source the money it has already paid. suggested that a fully functioning Lusaka peace agreement would be a nightmare for Western states: six African states would legitimately be Ties that bind able to demand that the United Nations provide a peacekeeping force to Trafigura insists the contract is binding and has applied in cover a country the size of western Europe. Moreover, Africans could London to have the dispute arbitrated. The company says it then lobby for the sort of international money and diplomatic efforts that ‘deplores bribery’ and that this is the first time it has faced such have been pumped into peace brokering in the Middle East or Cambodia. allegations. South Africa’s Minister of Mineral and Energy Clearly the UN hasn’t got the finance or logistical capacity available Affairs, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, has fired the board of the to run that scale of peacekeeping operation. In Sierra Leone, which is SFF for its conduct of the deal. It was Mlambo-Ngcuka who a tenth the size of Congo but hosts the UN’s biggest operation in Africa, decided to repudiate the Trafigura contract and refer the matter the UN force has failed both to contain the war in-country and also to to the Director of Public Prosecutions. She is also determined stop it spreading to Guinea. An effective UN force in Congo would to recoup all the state companies’ losses in the deal, as well as have to draw troops, equipment and transport from major military to end the relationship. powers, probably from the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation states. A Trafigura representative insists the government has no The NATO countries aren’t exactly rushing, or even ambling, to offer legal right to end the contract. ‘Trafigura does not believe that troops or logistics. there is any basis on which the contract could be unilaterally Quite the reverse. From the powerful five permanent members of the terminated and have had this confirmed by eminent legal UN Security Council, UN Assistant Secretary General Jean-Marie counsel’. The representative added that government spokesmen Guihenno sent a discouraging message just before the Lusaka summit. have implicitly accepted that Trafigura and High Beam have The original UN peacekeeping plan proposed 550 observers and 5,000 performed and that their fees should be paid. They also protest armed soldiers to protect them. The new version proposes the same that several journalists appear to have access to affidavits number of observers but only 2,400 armed men (400 of them sailors) making allegations against Trafigura and High Beam. from Morocco, Senegal, Tunisia and Uruguay. Their task will not be The SFF, which was set up under apartheid to ensure South to protect the observers but to guard the installations and equipment of Africa survived the oil boycott, has had a chequered career the UN Observer Mission in Congo (MONUC). The previous mandate since 1994. In 1998, the former Chairman of the Central was weak enough, as it did not permit UN troops to separate warring Energy Fund, Don Nkhwanazi, an associate of Kunene’s, factions. The new version is even weaker, perhaps exposing the resigned after it was revealed that he had hired Liberian banker observers to attack by anyone wishing to wreck the peace project. Emmanuel Shaw to advise the company on privatisation. Responsibility for ensuring the peace is left to the very people who have Shaw, who unsuccessfully sued South African newspapers for been fighting the war. libel, is a close associate of Liberian President Charles Taylor. Even less thought is being devoted to trying to consolidate a possible Trafigura also trades in oil and oil products in Nigeria, peace and get the combatants - the Forces Armées Congolaises (FAC) Congo-Brazzaville, Cameroon and Sudan (where it faced and the rebel armies - to lay down their arms. European Union envoy criticism for marketing ‘conflict oil’ on behalf of the National to the Great lakes Aldo Ajello says there are plans for their demobilisation Islamic Front regime). and civilianisation but the men concerned know nothing of that. Belgian In Nigeria, Trafigura built up its business under the brutal officers working on the problem put the cost at US$200 million. military regime of General Sani Abacha with the help of a joint Western states show no signs of being ready to pay. venture operation called Delaney, the Nigerian partner of which Yet the Lusaka summit improbably countered some of the doom- is Ahmed Umar, the brother of Colonel Abubakar Umara saying on Congo. The young President Kabila II helped steer the Dangiwa, a former Governor of Kaduna. In Congo-Brazzaville, combatants to their first apparent breakthrough since the signing, on 10 Trafigura has had an agreement to market crude oil on behalf of July 1999, of the original Lusaka agreement. The signatories then were President Denis Sassou-Nguesso’s military regime, which the six states still directly involved: Congo-K; Angola, Namibia and seized power in 1997. Zimbabwe, which back Congo) and Rwanda and Uganda (which sent their own troops to Congo and back two rebel movements, the 3 23 February 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 4

Rassemblement Congolais pour la Démocratie (RCD) and the genuine opening up. Mouvement de Libération du Congo (MLC). Eventually, all nine Within Congo, Kabila’s promises were cautiously but fairly warmly parties signed but no one met their obligations under the accord. received by the main rebel leaders, Adolphe Onusomba of the RCD- On 15 February, Kabila II formally accepted that the Organisation Goma (backed by Rwanda) and Bemba. The Kinshasa newspapers, of African Unity’s nominee as peace facilitator, Botswana’s ex- often critical of the government, welcomed the President’s gesture. Le President Ketumile Masire, should help build the necessary inter- Phare called him a ‘superstar’. La Référence Plus said, ‘The young Congolese dialogue. He agreed to talks involving the government, President said “yes” where his late father said “no”.’ Damien Simbi armed rebels, unarmed opposition and civil society, to lay the Musema, Secretary General of the Parti Démocrate Social-Chrétien groundwork for a new political order and to sort out the procedures for (PDSC), praised Kabila’s courage and hoped that Masire could transition. His father, Laurent-Désiré Kabila, and his Foreign relaunch the inter-Congolese dialogue and free up national politics. Minister, Abdoulaye Yerodia, kept postponing the peace process by rejecting Masire on the grounds that he was not neutral. Still some way to go The new President then formally agreed to the deployment of UN Some observers, though, point out that Kabila II still says he needs to observers between the warring parties, from 26 February, and accepted discuss procedures for working with Masire, thus possibly reserving in principle that all forces should pull back their front lines by 15 the right to find the mediator unacceptable. Further, all the warring kilometres to allow the UN soldiers to deploy. Helpfully, the MLC parties must agree that Masire’s co-facilitator would be El Hadj Omar agreed to pull back its troops. In Harare in December, it had refused, Bongo of Gabon. Valentin Senga, head of the MLC delegation in complaining that government aircraft persisted in bombing its towns Lusaka, said: ‘We must take care. Last time Kinshasa agreed to a visit in Equateur Province. Two days after the latest summit, MLC boss by Masire, Kabila senior ensured he could not do his work.’ Jean-Pierre Bemba gave peace another nudge forward by meeting, Kabila and his team have not yet confronted Laurent Kabila’s in Bunia District near the Ugandan border, the traditional chiefs of the ideologues, including Raphaël Ghenda, a fan of North Korea’s late Hema and Lendu peoples, who have been engaged in a very bloody President Kim Il Sung. Senior people who face Belgian charges of conflict for months. having incited ethnic hatred against Tutsi, and so fear any deal with Rwanda, include four Ministers, Abdoulaye Yerodia (Education), Praise for the new President Didier Mumengi (Youth), Gaëtan Kakudji (Interior) and Dominique After several weeks of talks, they signed a peace treaty on 17 February, Sakombi (Information). specifying that any future governor of the region must not be from There is indeed much to be clarified. If there were a workable peace, either group. This came just a month after the MLC, on 16 January, then Congo would need a new model army. The organisers of this agreed to merge with the movements from which it originally split off force would have to unite men from the FAC, the rebel armies and the - two dissident factions of the RCD, under the weakening leadership late President Mobutu Sese Seko’s Forces Armées Zaïroises. That of Professor Ernest Wamba dia Wamba. raises new military and political problems. There is no agreement for Everybody has welcomed Kabila II’s promises and the UN has neutralising and disarming the Interahamwé, or the MaiMai militias hailed the general calm on all fronts. In Lusaka, Ugandan Foreign who, on the eve of the summit, attacked and burned several houses in Minister Alfred Mubanda praised the new leader’s energy in pursuit Masisi District, North Kivu. The Rwandan army is at present trying of peace. Ugandan army sources indicate that before the end of to neutralise the MaiMai in Walikali District. February, Kampala may pull out of Congo two of its battalions (about The opposition, civil society and the government have not yet 1,000 soldiers) ‘in response to the gestures of goodwill from Kabila in agreed on a head of state during the transition. The unarmed opposition recent weeks’. has not agreed on its representatives at the round table. The Mobutists Rwanda reacted favourably, too, though it stayed away from the are quarrelling over whether to be represented by the ‘lawful’ Lusaka summit, saying it mistrusted Zambia as a mediator since the Mouvement Populaire de la Révolution under Kikata Ngima, a Zambian army could not or would not arrest soldiers of the former former governor of the Central Bank, or the rival MPR faction led by Forces Armées Rwandaises and their Interahamwé militia allies who Nzuzi wa Mbombo. fled across the border in December, after the Armée Patriotique Monsignor Laurent Monsengwo Pasinya, the Archbishop of Rwandaise and its allies from the RCD-Goma captured the frontier Kisangani who presided over the transitional parliament in Mobutu’s town of Pweto. Kigali insists that the Lusaka agreement obliges the last years, wants Masire to install a ‘provisional praesidium’ for the signatories (including Zambia) to neutralise ‘negative forces’, meaning inter-Congolese dialogue, restoring the Archbishop’s former role; he the génocidaires who planned and carried out the murder of 800,000 believes that the transitional parliament promoted a ‘national consensus’ Rwandan Tutsi and moderate Hutu in 1994. which Kabila broke. Believing this issue to be back on the agenda, President Paul In a new assembly, the political parties - some genuine, some set up Kagame hailed the promise given by Kabila II at Lusaka and said he for profit - would compete for seats. The EU’s Ajello thinks the entirely supported the peace process. On 20 February, Rwanda said assembly should not be over-large, recalling that many members of the it was ready to pull out of Pweto as of midnight a week later, provided last transitional parliament, mainly concerned about their per diem that UN observers had taken up position on schedule the previous day. allowances, tried to spin everything out as long as possible. Further An official of Rwanda’s Defence Ministry told Africa Confidential roadblocks could be created by Laurent Kabila’s creation, the that his country would move decisively towards peace if Kabila agreed Constituent and Legislative Assembly-Transitional Parliament (ACL- to send the leaders of the ex-FAR and Interahamwé to the international PT), few of whose members are likely to sit in a future transitional war-crimes tribunal in Arusha. On 9 February in Brussels, Kagame assembly and who will be worried about their own financial prospects. had told Belgian Foreign Minister Louis Michel that all Rwanda’s Yet a momentum has been created. Just such a momentum brought troops would be out of Congo in a week, if only the UN would the young men from the east of the country right into Kinshasa and neutralise the ex-FAR and Interahamwé; the Belgian Minister, saying swept away the wreckage of Mobutu’s regime. Now the civilians are he was also pleased by the attitude of Kabila II, detected signs of a moving to sweep away the wreckage of Laurent Kabila’s regime. 4 23 February 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 4

Some 60 organisations demand the disbanding of his embryo ruling Nations, Egypt, Australia, Belgium, France, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, party, the Comités du Pouvoir Populaire and their militias, the Forces Italy, Iraq, China and the United States. Haile Menkerios, the d’Autodéfense Populaire. The same organisations want regular justice respected Ambassador to the UN (where he was offered a job last year) restored; the trades unions and the Fédération des Entreprises was recalled in December to become Deputy Foreign Minister. He has Congolaises want the economy liberalised. Kabila Junior has the been replaced in New York by Ahmed Takir Baduri, previously people behind him, if only he can get rid of his father’s political legacy. Director General of the Eritrea Investment Centre. Semere Reesom, previously Ambassador in Washington, now heads the European and American desk. ERITREA Chinese freeze Many of those who fell from favour suffered the peculiarly Eritrean Winter in Asmara treatment of mdskal (usually translated as ‘freezing’, a concept copied from China, where the winters are colder). The victims often keep President Issayas is freezing some of his key their titular jobs but are shut out of the power structure for an officials out of politics undetermined period - weeks, months, years - becoming political non- For the first time in his political life, President Issayas Aferworki persons, cut out of all decision-making. The technique has often been faces serious challenges from his political peers. There is now a used by the government and the ruling party. Sherifo met his downfall substantial group within the ruling People’s Front for Democracy and first in the form of a presidential order that regional administrators Justice (PFDJ) that is dissatisfied with his leadership. This results bypass his Ministry and report directly to the President’s Office. mainly from the war with Ethiopia and from stonewalling on political Another victim of mdskal, in January, was Major General Berhane reform. It has been getting harder for Asmara to dismiss the growing Gebrezgabhier, formerly commander of ground forces and head of band of critics of Issayas as tools of Ethiopian intelligence and a spate the national reserve and militia training. He was ‘frozen’ despite his of sackings and resignations at the apex of the regime indicates a new success in running training and in defending Areza in May and June degree of discontent. Outside government, critics are increasingly last year. In November, Hamid Himid, head of the Middle East desk strident. For now, Issayas will weather the storm: he’s set to win any in the Foreign Affairs Ministry and former Ambassador to Saudi, was leadership contest and face down any rivals this year. Yet the political ordered out of his office; as a key figure in negotiations with Sudan, climate is growing chillier and the President’s options are narrowing. he had expected to be given the Ministry but was blamed for the failure A good example of these developments was the abrupt sacking last to keep Ethiopia and Sudan apart. He was brought back into the week of the influential Minister of Local Government, Mahmoud Ministry’s Political Affairs department in January but his place on the Ahmed Sherifo. Regarded as an unofficial vice-president, Mahmoud PFDJ’s Executive remains frozen. Saleh Idris Kakya, Minister of Sherifo is highly popular, willing to listen and to delegate. As a Transport and Communications and long-time head of the Presidential founder member of the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF), Office, advised Issayas to stop interfering directly in ministerial now the PFDJ, he was appointed Foreign Minister after Independence affairs, was offered the governorship of Assab, refused and is now also in 1991 and acted as head of state in 1994, when Issayas was experiencing the chill of mdskal. hospitalised in Israel. As holder of the Local Government portfolio, Others are likely to face similar treatment before the party congress Sherifo had some responsibility for national security, since there was and the elections. The head of security, Abraha Kassa, took the no Ministry of the Interior. blame for several intelligence failures during the war, before the Sherifo’s sacking arose from his work as head of the commission to successful Ethiopian crossing of the Mareb River and the loss of draft a party law for the country’s first elections. Issayas did not want Barentu in May last year; he shared responsibility for security with elections but the National Assembly insisted they should be held in Sherifo and is expected to follow his partner out. The President will December 2001 and it set up the commission; it completed its draft probably recreate the Interior Ministry and a likely minister is Naizghi report at the end of January and distributed it to members of the Kiflu, Ambassador to Russia for the last three years. He was formerly Assembly. Sherifo intended to hold a press conference on the report senior in the party’s security apparatus and acquired a stiff reputation. but failed to clear it with the President’s Office; the news conference When he visited London last year, opposition supporters feared he had was cancelled and the Minister was sent a short notice of dismissal come with a hit squad and notified British anti-terrorist officials. which, he says, gave no reasons. There will be changes at the top of the army, too. The high Since Eritrea stopped fighting Ethiopia last June, there has been a command failed to win the war but senior officers opposed the spate of government sackings and reshuffles. In August, after a President’s decisions before and during the last Ethiopian offensive - meeting of the PFDJ’s Executive Committee, Haile Wolde Tensae he overruled them when they wanted to hold onto Barentu in May. lost his job as Foreign Minister, swapping posts with the Minister for Earlier, senior soldiers had said they were worried about defensive Trade and Industry, Ali Said Abdella. The new Foreign Minister had positions in the western region, which Ethiopia overran in May, and worked hard for the previous 18 months to improve Eritrea’s relations the army took over control of conscription to stop draft-dodging and with Arab states; his appointment emphasises Asmara’s current pro- prevent corruption. Arab leanings and its hope of joining the League of Arab States. Haile Officers also complained that troops were used as cheap labour Wolde Tensae fell out of favour after the failure to join the League in during lulls in the fighting in 1999 and early 2000. Maj. Gen. Umar 1999 and his public acknowledgement in Frankfurt, Germany, last Hassan Teweel, the commander who lost Badme in February 1999, July that Eritrea had lost its war with Ethiopia after errors of policy. and Lieutenant Gen. Sebhat Ephrem, as Minister of Defence, are The President thinks the Foreign Ministry failed to win the likely to be demoted; Gens. Haile Samuel ‘China’, Felipos propaganda war against Ethiopia and it has been radically reorganised. Woldeyohannes, Teklai Habteselassie and Gabregziabher New regional desks are being set up and at least a dozen ambassadors Gebremaryam ‘Wuchu’ are candidates for promotion. have been changed, including those to the European Union, United When the PFDJ Executive Committee met in August, Issayas 5 23 February 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 4

constitution, including multi-party elections. Gim-Gema in Ethiopia Two weeks later, one of the signatories, Professor Mussie Misghina Ethiopia, like Eritrea, is conducting a post-war reassessment (gim- of the Karolinska Institute, Sweden, organised a meeting in Stockholm gema), covering the decade since the Ethiopian People’s attended by Ahmed Nasser, the last Chairman of the undivided Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) took power. When it is Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF), the original liberation movement, complete, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi is expected to score an forced into exile by the EPLF in 1981-82. overwhelming victory in May’s elections and then to reorganise the Under this long-range pressure, President Issayas reluctantly accepted government. When the House of Representatives first met again in the Assembly’s decision to hold multi-party elections on schedule in October, it reappointed him Premier and endorsed, temporarily, his December 2001 and set about strengthening his position. previous government. Elections have been held at kebele (local) and Issayas wants to ensure that nothing similar happens again. The job woreda (district) levels, and the results are being ‘evaluated’ - bringing the EPRDF a fresh victory. of drawing up candidates for party positions and committees, to Some areas have already evaluated their polls, with special ‘ensure that the party can speak with a single voice’, has gone to a attention to corruption. Charges have been laid against Air Force committee headed by an Issayas loyalist, Askalu Menkerios. The officers and senior police officers in Addis Ababa, four of whom critics are being picked off one by one: some sacked, some isolated, were charged with corruption in January. Last November, as part of some subject to mdskal. The President met eleven of the G13 in late the reform of the civil service, a central body was set up to November, to castigate them for their letter and its publication. The coordinate anti-corruption activity. issues it raised were not discussed and Issayas tried to divide the group Almost sixty changes have been made in diplomatic postings, by claiming he’d had a private two-hour meeting with one of them including thirty appointments of ambassadors or chargés d’affaires earlier. The 13 have seen their reputations tarnished by the official press. - among them to Belgium, Britain, Canada, France, India, Israel and Russia. The longest serving Ambassador, Berhane Gebre The elections are almost certain to happen but the timetable may not Christos, has been in the United States since 1991 and is expected allow for a multi-party contest, now that Sherifo has been dismissed. to get a senior government post in the reshuffle. In mid-December, Yemane Gebreab, the party’s political boss, said he The army has completed much of its post-war debriefing and the expected only independent candidates, as there ‘probably’ wouldn’t defence budget is being cut from 6.8 billion birr (US$824,000) to be enough time for parties to emerge. Eritrea remains far from the 4.2 bn. birr ($509,000). Of the 100,000 men to be demobilised, multi-party democracy that the President’s critics claim to favour. 60,000 had gone by the end of January; disabled veterans received up to 6,000 birr ($725), the able-bodied 2,000 birr. Dozens of promotions have been made, with ten Tigrayan colonels raised to TANZANIA brigadier general. The war created a new national army but overall Tigrayan control remains unchallenged. There is speculation that the Chief of Staff, Lieutenant Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, may be moved to the Ministry of Defence, with the northern army Revolution revisited commander, Major Gen. Samora Younis, taking over as CoS. Zanzibar’s old passions have upset a nation announced that the party’s performance would be investigated and a proud of peace party congress be held in December. This was welcomed but the Oh dear! The media had exaggerated reports of Zanzibar’s troubles, meeting was a stormy one. Senior party officials criticised Issayas for some foreign embassies were biased in favour of the opposition Civic failing to consult them, for ignoring the ministerial and party hierarchy, United Front (CUF), foreign election observers had not spent long and for not implementing the constitution. The veterans of the war of enough in the country to appreciate that the recent island elections Independence and the old EPLF feel they are being sidelined; they were free and fair (AC Vol 41 Nos 22 & 23). That was the angry include Petros Solomon, Marine Resources Minister since 1997, and response of Tanzania’s President Benjamin Mkapa, Chairman of the Mesfin Hagos, both of whom were brought back as senior commanders governing Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM), in a recent BBC interview; against Ethiopia. he conceded, though, that recent killings in Zanzibar had soiled The President was attacked for relying on a côterie of personal Tanzania’s good image. protégés, including Yemane Gebreab (head of political affairs in the Observers wonder whether the President appreciates the full extent PFDJ), Yemane Gebrechristos (chief of the President’s Office and of the damage to the country’s high reputation for peace, stability and Presidential Spokesman) and Abdella Jabir (head of party progress, or the danger of continuing trouble to relations between organisation). There was a debate on the internet, through the people of different faiths. The nation has almost equal numbers of opposition sites asmarino.com and awate.com, and the government Christians and Muslims; Zanzibar is almost entirely Muslim. Nor does sites dehai.com and visafric.com. At the end of September, the issues he seem to appreciate how much will be needed to put things right. were raised in the National Assembly by veterans such as Petros The list of people and organisations expressing concern at what Solomon, Mahmoud Sherifo and Haile Wolde Tensae. happened around 27 January is growing. As well as the predictable In early October, some prominent intellectuals, regarded as party donor countries and human-rights lobbies, it includes the Secretary supporters and styling themselves the Group of 13 (G13), wrote a General of the Organisation of African Unity, Salim Ahmed Salim; critical letter to the President. They included Bereket Habte Selassie, the Mwalimu Nyerere Foundation; Professor Haroub Othman, Chairman of the constitutional drafting committee. Their text became Chairman of the Zanzibar Legal Services Centre (who said force was public, probably leaked by government officials wishing to discredit not the answer to Zanzibar’s problems); the Tanzania Law Society the intellectuals, who were asking why the war had gone so badly and (which called for a judicial commission of enquiry); the Legal Aid calling for national reconciliation. Their specific demands were: Committee; the Academic Staff Assembly and the Students’ abolition of the Special Court which deals with political and corruption Organisation of the University of Dar es Salaam. cases and allows no legal representation and no appeals; release or The much-admired CCM member of parliament, Gertrude trial of all political prisoners; and full implementation of the Mongella, who chaired the International Conference on Women in 6 23 February 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 4

Beijing in 1998, told parliament that she used to feel proud of island (some CUF supporters now talk of introducing Sharia). Yet Tanzania’s peace whenever she was abroad but was now very ashamed. there are no signs that Mkapa’s strategy is doing any of the above. The five previously disparate main opposition parties, which together Indeed it seems to be building support for a divorce with the mainland, won 28.3 per cent of the vote in October’s presidential election, are as well as for those groups arguing for Islamic law. These hard-liners now working together. will gain influence unless there is progress towards reform. Zanzibar’s underlying tensions have built up since the 1995 elections, Meanwhile, the CUF is playing its cards more skilfully. While when the CCM claimed it had won by a wafer-thin majority and the Chairman Lipumba led the protest movement in Tanzania, the Secretary opposition refused to accept the results. There followed many General (who also leads the CUF in Zanzibar) Seif Shariff Hamad, allegations that the human rights of CUF members had been abused. was drumming up support in the USA, Canada and Europe. The Eighteen CUF leaders spent three years in gaol, charged with an party, claiming it was not involved in violence, has simplified its offence of treason which does not exist under Zanzibar law, and were demands, calling now for new elections in Zanzibar under a reformed released the day after the October elections. Mkapa refused foreign electoral commission and some modifications to the constitution of offers of help in ensuring implementation of a Commonwealth- the Union of Tanzania. brokered agreement between the parties in Zanzibar, whose essential Mkapa should be well placed to impose his will. He was recently component was reform of the islands’ electoral commission. re-elected by an overwhelming majority. Moreover, Karume owes his Speaking in Zanzibar during the election campaign, Mkapa strongly job to Mkapa, who backed him when the CCM was choosing its attacked the CUF, heightening the partisan tension. The deeply candidate last year. Ever since Mkapa was first elected, in 1995, flawed election was accompanied by unprecedented intimidation and Zanzibar has been an irritation; it is unlikely either to go away or to be brutality against CUF supporters by the police, many of whose officers resolved through repression. He might start by encouraging the acted like the armed wing of the CCM. Few thought the election result initiative of the respected former CCM Prime Minister, Judge Joseph reflected the will of the Zanzibaris: further trouble was inevitable. Warioba, who is looking for common ground between the parties. On 27 January, the CUF planned what it called a day of nationwide Two earlier constitutional commissions (and many CCM members peaceful protest. The government immediately banned all meetings of parliament) believe that the Union constitution should be modified, and marches. Three days before the big day, CUF Chairman Professor which was out of the question during the lifetime of its author, the late Ibrahim Lipumba called a small rally on the mainland, in Dar es President Julius Nyerere. The proposal is that mainland Tanzania Salaam. As he left, he was attacked and beaten by police; he appeared and Zanzibar should each have a parliament, with a Union parliament in court the next day with his arm in a sling. Many of his supporters for federal matters. Present arrangements provide for a Union president, were also beaten up. parliament and government, plus the same for Zanzibar, but not for the On the appointed day, the real trouble began. On the main island, mainland. The only similar jurisdiction was that for Northern Ireland Unguja, the police beat up people leaving a mosque; two were killed. within the United Kingdom; it proved so unjust and incompetent that The violence was far worse on Pemba island, the CUF’s stronghold. the British government dissolved it a quarter of a century ago and has By the end, one policeman and 23 others had been killed, and hundreds still not replaced it A three-legislature deal for Tanzania could reduce wounded and/or arrested. The new CCM President of Zanzibar, tensions within the Union but could also weaken it. Amani Karume, who had been expected to be a conciliator, declared The Union was set up to calm a revolution at the height of the Cold that CUF leaders had caused the trouble and would be hunted down in War. The world is now very different and the election of a CUF their homes. Hundreds fled to Kenya, to escape the police or to get government for Zanzibar’s 800,000 people would be no disaster for medical attention. Widely praised for taking in almost a million the 30 million mainlanders or for the CCM. Common interests would refugees from neighbouring countries during recent years, Tanzania ensure close cooperation. The CCM’s hard line seems to be softening. now has its own exodus. Reports of arrests still disturb CUF supporters in Zanzibar but life is There were faults on the opposition side, too. The CUF went ahead returning to normal. Opposition parties are allowed to meet; at the first with its rallies and marches after they had been declared illegal. The rally, in Dar on 7 February, peaceful thousands were addressed by government insists that CUF demonstrators in Pemba carried stones, leaders of all the main opposition parties. Another rally, the first since machetes and clubs, calling for the overthrow by force of the Zanzibar the elections, is being allowed in Zanzibar. Mkapa says he is willing government, and that the police reacted after one of their number had to meet the CUF - but only after it recognises Amani Karume as been hacked to death, putting others in fear of their lives. On Pemba, President of Zanzibar. The CUF is not likely to swallow that so soon. houses where CCM supporters live have been marked with threatening red Xs. An organisation calling itself the Zanzibar Liberation Front Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com has threatened Tanzanian embassies in Europe and the United States. Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at Like any party, the CUF is a coalition of opinions. Its moderate 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, England. centrist majority has been advocating peaceful change for five years Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. Copyright reserved. Edited by Patrick Smith. Deputy: Gillian Lusk. and now gives warning that this has had no effect. The CUF promised Administration: Clare Tauben. that, if it won the 2000 elections, it would share power with the CCM but the party’s extremists, concentrated in Pemba, would like to break Annual subscriptions including postage, cheques payable to Africa Confidential in advance: up the Union and restore the sultanate which was overthrown in the Institutions: Africa £289 - UK/Europe £310 - USA $780 - ROW £404 1964 revolution. Abeid Karume, father of the new Zanzibari President, Corporates: Africa £354 - UK/Europe £373 - USA $864 - ROW £466 led that uprising and was blamed for much of the appalling violence Students (with proof): Africa/UK/Europe/ROW £83 or USA $129 against Zanzibaris of Arab or Indian origin. All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept So Mkapa and his supporters argue that their hard line on Zanzibar American Express, Diner’s Club, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 805, Oxford OX4 is justified because it will prevent a rerun of the crisis of the 1960s, by 1FH England. Tel: 44 1865 244083 and Fax: 44 1865 381381 protecting the Union between the mainland and Zanzibar as well as Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts, UK. facing down Islamist elements who are trying to stir the pot on the ISSN 0044-6483

7 23 February 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 4

personnel and intelligence, British officials believe his country, he said the international press tended Pointers they have persuaded French colleagues to look to exaggerate minor incidents. Despite his hopeful more closely at the links between Burkina Faso’s words, there was no common ground at all. Blaise Compaoré and Liberia’s Charles Taylor UK/AFRICA and the spreading war in West Africa. Paris and SUDAN London agree on much of the analysis of African developments, a Whitehall source said, ‘even if Peace budget we don’t always agree about policy prescriptions’. Back to gaol Britain’s Labour government, whose proclaimed The arrest of the National Islamic Front CÔTE D’IVOIRE ethical foreign policy has been under fire since the government’s founding father, Hassan el Turabi, Sandline affair in Sierra Leone (AC Vol 39 No on 21 February sent ripples of glee through 5), wants to show it takes Africa seriously. Prime Sudanese communities: the previous two times he Minister Tony Blair takes a personal interest: he Dialogue de sourds was sent to gaol, the government fell. speaks regularly to South Africa’s Thabo Mbeki, Prime Minister Pascal Affi N’Guessan told He was arrested just before President Ja’afar he asks officials for briefings on Congo-Kinshasa journalists he was happy with his talks in Brussels Nimeiri’s overthrow in 1985, ensuring his rapid and his father, Leo Blair, has ties to Sierra Leone. on 15 February. The European Union would release just after. Then when his NIF seized Officials in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office continue the political dialogue and would support power in 1989, he was detained, enabling the NIF (FCO) and in the Department for International Abidjan’s efforts at national reconciliation; Côte to consolidate its hold while pretending the coup Development (DfID) say that wars have become d’Ivoire would ask for funds for the forthcoming was merely military, under President Omer el the major block to Africa’s economic development. municipal elections, and to reorganise the army Beshir. A decade later, he boasted: ‘I ordered They have pushed for more coordinated British and the police. ‘In three months, we shall be Omer to go to the Palace and I went off to prison’. efforts, now dispersed across several ministries restarting economic cooperation’, the Premier said. A key leader of that ‘Revolution’ and Turabi- and agencies. On 26 March with the Defence However, ‘No decision has been taken about ally, Colonel Mohamed el Amin Khalifa, blamed Ministry, they will launch their Africa Conflict reopening financial cooperation’, the European Turabi’s arrest on his group’s signing a Prevention Fund in London at a top-level seminar. Commission soon flatly stated. The EU’s Memorandum of Understanding the previous day Development Minister Clare Short is the cooperation programme was suspended in January with the Sudan People’s Liberation Army. The undisputed leader of the triumvirate: her 1998, after the disappearance of 28 million euros government, complained Mohamed el Amin, who department spends over half its budget in Africa (about US$28 mn.) that had been allocated to the once led that same government’s team in the talks and devised Britain’s security reform and health sector. But Development Commissioner process with the SPLA (also a decade long), was development policy in Sierra Leone. Like Defence Poul Nielson said that these latest talks were not interested in peace or in self-determination for Minister Geoff Hoon, Short too is in the running about wider matters, in the framework of the EU/ the south. The 20 February Memorandum talks of for Foreign Secretary if, as is probable, Labour Africa-Caribbean-Pacific Cotonou Accord, which both, but the language is so elastic that neither side wins elections this year. The FCO’s new Minister sets out political conditions for aid. If the leaders is committed to much and certainly not to anything of State for Africa and the Commonwealth, Scottish in Côte d’Ivoire don’t change their attitudes they have not already signed up to. party stalwart Brian Wilson, must catch up fast, within three months, Brussels might permanently The importance of the accord and therefore of after taking over from the media-friendly Peter cancel the suspended aid programme. the arrest lie elsewhere: this is about tactics. The Hain only at the end of last month. On 16 February, Nielson met Economy and SPLA believes it will deepen the split in the NIF, The major thrust is on the arms trade, tightening Finance Minister Douhoun Bouabri, who though many of its northern allies in the National controls of small-arms and of ‘conflict diamonds’. explained his country’s desperate need for cash, Democratic Alliance doubt the split is much more Big manufacturers will strongly resist demands in the form of some 1,000 billion CFA francs than stategic itself. One of the two SPLA for greater accountability in arms sales - getting ($1.4 bn.) to kick-start the economy and pay off signatories was Pagan Amon, NDA Secretary the major producers to identify their agents in the arrears to the World Bank and International General since Mubarek el Mahdi was kicked out countries they supply and release pricing details. Monetary Fund. ‘We took a pretty hard line’, said for reconciling with the NIF. The other is Yasser Officials want to draw in non-governmental a Commission source. The EU remains Arman, a northerner and a Muslim. This points to organisations to help make conflict mediation unconvinced that Affi N’Guessan’s government a deeper SPLA aim. more effective. The main purpose, however, is to will respect human rights. The NIF has had much success in bringing unify government efforts; spending by the three The Chairman of the EU’s Committee of Egypt (AC Vol 42 No 2) and Libya on board by departments involved, formerly kept separate, is Permanent Representatives, Swedish Ambassador calling the SPLA ‘infidels’ who threaten national being pooled, together with resources available in Gunnar Lund, recalled that Côte d’Ivoire had unity and Sudan’s ‘Arab/Muslim identity’. An Britain for African peacekeeping. violated ‘essential elements’ of the EU/ACP SPLA pact with arch-Islamist Turabi give such Whitehall officials keenly refute the accusation Cotonou Accord by excluding certain candidates claims less resonance in Saudi and other Arab/ that Western policy in Africa follows the ‘Give from the elections in October and December (AC Muslim states. war a chance’ dictum proposed by American Vol 41 No 25). The day before the Brussels The impression rapidly spread that Turabi had political scientist Edward Luttwak, who argues meetings, Henriette Diabaté, number two in the signed the agreement. In fact, it was another that half-hearted intervention can add to suffering Rassemblement des Républicains, was formally Turabi, Omer Ibrahim el Turabi, plus Hassan’s by preventing a clear victor emerging. But they do charged with rebellion and conspiracy to destroy long-time faithful right-hand man, El Mahboub concede Britain has failed - in peacekeeping or public property; RPR leader Alassane Dramane Abdel Salaam el Mahboub who signed, for encouraging democratic governance - to help Ouattara had been banned from contesting the Hassan’s faction, the ‘Popular National Congress’. achieve ‘critical mass’ across wide areas of Africa presidency because his parents were allegedly not Government spokesman and NIF hardliner Ghazi or among enough of the smaller countries. Ivorian. And other RDR officials have also been Salah el Din el Atabani reacted with fury to the Britain sees itself and France as the key foreign arrested. Memo but it remains to be seen how much this is players in Africa: along with China and the United Brussels wanted Affi N’Guessan to guarantee a question of power struggles and how much States, they are the biggest arms suppliers. After that future elections would be open to all. He said another attempt to undermine the opposition and discussing immigration, Blair and President the constitution laid down the rules, which would present the NIF as peace-maker. Some analysts Jacques Chirac discussed Africa for some 90 surely exclude candidates such as Ouattara. When think the NIF feels so shaky that it is again preparing minutes at the Franco-African summit in Cahors the EU asked him to condemn the xenophobia for its own succession by sending its ideological on 9 February. Beyond arrangements to swap which is driving Burkinabès and Malians out of leader, Turabi, back to gaol.

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