How should President Obama balance priorities?

Spring 2009 www.belfercenter.org

Obama Taps into Belfer Center Community for Key Policy Posts What Insights, Views Will Key Appointees Contribute to Policy? “High office teaches decision making, not substance,” Henry Kissinger once said. “It consumes intellectual capital; it does not create it. Most high officials leave office with the perceptions and insights with which they entered.” R

E Ashton B. Carter (Co-director, Harvard T N

E Belfer Center/Stanford Preventive Defense C R

E Project) F L E

B Now : Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisi - tion, Technology and Logistics

Together, I am confident that we will be able to tackle the challenges of our time. —President Obama

“Strategic clarity—what kind of military does the United States need and why?—must make a Ashton B. Carter return to the Pentagon after a period when ever- John P. Holdren growing budgets and single-minded preoccupation Paul Volcker (Member, Belfer Center Inter - with Iraq have caused it to fall out of practice.” national Council) —Ashton B. Carter (“Defense Strategy and Now: Chair, Economic Recovery Advisory he Belfer Center is both proud and hum - Budget in the Post-Bush Era,” Aspen Strategy Board Tbled that a number of its members have Group paper, August 5, 2008) been asked to serve in the Obama administra - O [Volcker has a] deep understanding T tion.The group’s experience and expertise span O H of financial markets, extensive P

many of the international challenges con - P

A experience managing economic fronting the nation today. crises . . . —President-elect Obama John P. Holdren (Director, Belfer Center Sci - ence, Technology, and Public Policy Program) “‘Keep [banks] small, so that any failure won’t Now: Assistant to the President for Science have systematic importance.’” —Paul Volcker and Technology; Director, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy; Co-chair, • Improve quality and effectiveness of President-elect Barack Obama names prudential regulation and supervision President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Lawrence Summers (left) director of Technology (PCAST) National Economic Council. • Strengthen institutional policies, standards • Increase transparency of markets, products [Holdren] has been one of the most Lawrence Summers (Member, Belfer Cen - (“Obama Adviser Urges More Rigorous passionate and persistent voices of ter Board of Directors) Global Financial Regulation,” Washington Post, our time about . . . climate change. January 16, 2009) Now: Director, National Economic Council —President-elect Obama R E T N

[Summers’] thinking, writing E C

“None of the great interlinked challenges of our and speaking have set the terms of R E F time—the economy, energy, environment, health, L the debate. —President-elect Obama E security, and the particular vulnerabilities of the B poor to shortfalls in all of these—can be solved “In this crisis, doing too little poses a greater without insights and advances from the physical threat than doing too much. Any sound economic sciences, the life sciences, and engineering.” strategy in the current context must be directed at —John P. Holdren (“Harvard Kennedy both creating the jobs that Americans need and School’s John P. Holdren to be Named doing the work that our economy requires.” Obama’s Science Advisor,” Belfer Center press —Lawrence Summers (“Obama’s Down Pay - Paul Volcker release, December 19, 2008) ment,” Washington Post , December 29, 2008) continued on page 3 FROMTHE DIRECTOR T R A W E T S A H T R A

As he stressed in his inaugural address, M President Obama intends to give new emphasis to science in making policy. His selection of John Holdren , director of our Science, Tech - nology, and Public Policy Program, as his sci - ence advisor, is not surprising. John has rightly Celebratory Assembly: Secretary-General Ban hat President Barack Obama (Harvard been called “the very model of a policy-rele - Ki-moon (left) with Caroline Kennedy and Belfer Center Director Graham Allison at the TLaw School ’91) enters office at a “hinge vant scientist.” As Under Secretary of Defense 50th anniversary celebration of the Harvard of history” is now a cliché, but no less true for for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics, Kennedy School’s Mason Fellows Program. having been often stated. Not only does the Ash Carter is uniquely qualified to help the Great Recession look ever more depressing, but Defense Department meet our 21st-century new administration about issues from nuclear we simultaneously face daunting security chal - needs. And Dennis Ross will provide the Sec - security to climate policy. lenges—from Iran’s advancing nuclear program retary of State with strategic advice and per - To support the Center in building new to increasing fragility of Pakistan. spective on the Gulf and Southwest Asia. intellectual capital, International Council For a Center committed to advancing pol - members have provided a generous grant to icy-relevant knowledge about the most impor - launch a new initiative assessing options for tant international challenges, the fact that The fact that members of revitalizing the global nuclear order. Continu - members of our Belfer Center family have been the Belfer Center family have ing work begun by a Commission of Eminent called upon to serve in the Obama administra - Persons launched last year by IAEA Director tion is a source of both pride and humility. been called upon to serve . . . General Mohamed ElBaradei , this initiative As our Belfer Center colleagues Larry is a source of both pride will be enlivened by the arrival of Rolf Summers , International Council member Paul and humility. Mowatt-Larssen , former director of the Office Volcker , and Board of Directors member Mar - of Intelligence and Counterintelligence at the tin Feldstein try to overcome the worst eco - Energy Department and Will Tobey , deputy nomic disaster since the Great Depression, I Others from the Center joining the new administrator for the National Nuclear Secu - ask myself: whom would I rather have address - administration include Rand Beers , Elizabeth rity Administration’s Office of Defense Nuclear ing this challenge? As director of the National Sherwood-Randall , and Michèle Flournoy . Nonproliferation. Along with former Under Economic Council, chair of the Economic Additional members of the Center’s family who Secretary of State for Policy Nick Burns , who Recovery Advisory Board, and a member of have not yet been announced will also be join - joined us in September, we are proud that that board, Larry, Paul, Marty, and their col - ing the administration. Beyond those who take Harvard has attracted some of the most tal - leagues stand in the midst of the storm. fulltime positions, many others are advising the ented people leaving the U.S. government. Rolf Mowatt-Larssen and William Tobey Named Senior Fellows by Sharon Wilke

olf Mowatt-Larssen , former director of weapons and weapons materials out of the posed by the current Rthe Office of Intelligence and Counterin - hands of terrorists. unraveling of the global telligence at the U.S. Department of Energy nuclear order. Along (DOE) and former head of the Central Intelli - with the Belfer Center’s gence Agency’s WMD and terrorism efforts, has They have contributed Graham Allison , joined the Belfer Center as a senior fellow along extensively to the intelligence Matthew Bunn , Ashton with William H. Tobey , who was until recently and formation of policies Carter , Steven Miller the deputy administrator for Defense Nuclear and others, they will William H. Tobey Nonproliferation at the DOE’s National necessary to prevent nuclear help advance work Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). proliferation and terrorism. begun by a Commission As director of intelligence and counterin - —Graham Allison of Eminent Persons (launched earlier this year telligence with DOE until January, Mowatt- by International Atomic Energy Association Larssen with his 600 Director General Mohamed ElBaradei ) to person organization was Tobey, a Harvard Kennedy School graduate find ways to maximize contributions of nuclear responsible for the areas (MPP ’84) who served as DOE deputy admin - technologies to human well-being while mini - of nuclear terrorism, istrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation mizing risks of nuclear weapons proliferation nuclear proliferation, from 2006 to 2009, led a team of 400 employ - and nuclear terrorist attacks. science and technology, ees, managed NNSA’s $2.1 billion budget, and “We are extremely pleased to have Rolf and energy security, and worked with more than 100 countries to pre - Will join the Belfer Center as senior fellows,” counterintelligence. His vent nuclear proliferation and terrorism by said Allison. “In their respective careers, they primary focus was pre - detecting, securing, and disposing of dangerous have contributed extensively to the intelligence venting a nuclear terror - nuclear materials. and formation of policies necessary to prevent ism attack on the At the Belfer Center, Mowatt-Larssen and nuclear proliferation and terrorism. They will United States by work - Tobey will work with the Center’s nuclear bring tremendous insights and expertise to the Rolf Mowatt-Larssen ing to keep nuclear team on an initiative to reduce the dangers efforts of our nuclear team and to Harvard.” 2 Center Members Head to Washington Faculty, Alumni Called on (continued from page 1) to Review U.S. Agencies Additional members of the Belfer Center community have been called on to serve in the A number of Belfer Center faculty, affiliates, Obama administration. These include the following persons (listed alphabetically). and alumni led or served on transition teams that reviewed U.S. agencies for the incoming Rand Beers (Faculty Affiliate, Patricia McLaughlin (Project Obama administration. The reviews provided Belfer Center) Coordinator, Science, the president-elect, vice president-elect, and key advisors with information needed to make Now: Counselor to the Secre - Technology, and Public strategic policy, budgetary, and personnel deci - tary of Homeland Security; Policy Program) sions prior to the inauguration. Acting Deputy Secretary, Now: Confidential Assistant In addition to those below (listed alphabet - DHS to John P. Holdren, named ically), Rand Beers led the Department of Assistant to the President for “Instead of listening to the Homeland Security Review Team, Michèle Science and Technology; nation’s 16 intelligence agencies Flournoy was deputy lead of the Department Director, White House Office of Science and and refocusing resources to where they were most of Defense Review Team, and Ashton B. Technology Policy, Co-chair, President’s Coun - needed, the administration clung to Iraq as the Carter and Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall cil of Advisors on Science and Technology central front in the fight against terrorism. As a served as members of the Department of (PCAST) result, the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan Defense Review Team. deteriorated further, with a resurgent al-Qaeda “While I will miss the Belfer Center while we are and resurrected Taliban now threatening both the on leave, I am greatly honored to be offered the Kurt Campbell (Former region and American homeland itself.” opportunity to continue to work with John in his Belfer Center Assistant Direc - —Rand Beers new position at the White House.” tor and Research Fellow) (“Don’t Need Faked Letter to Indict Bush —Patricia McLaughlin Team,” Philadelphia Inquirer , August 14, 2008) Served as: Member, Depart - Dennis Ross (Member, Belfer ment of Defense Review Team Center International Council) Martin Feldstein (Member, Belfer Center Board of Direc - Now: Special Advisor to the tors; former Chair, Council of Secretary of State for The Gulf Ivo Daalder (Former Research Economic Advisers, Reagan and Southwest Asia Fellow, Belfer Center Interna - Administration) “If history tells us anything, it tional Security Program) Now: Member, White House is that forging an effective Served as: Co-lead, National Economic Recovery Advisory strategy toward Iran is no easy Security Council Review Board task. And, yet, it has probably never been more Team important.” “Regardless of what is done to provide a fiscal —Dennis Ross stimulus, governments around the world must act (“Diplomatic Strategies for Dealing with Iran,” to fix dysfunctional credit markets. Otherwise, Juliette Kayyem (Member, Chapter 2 in Iran: Assessing U.S. Strategic credit will not flow and growth will not resume. Belfer Center Board of Options, Center for a New American Security, In the United States, reviving the credit markets Directors) September 2008) requires stopping the mortgage defaults driven by Served as: Member, Home - negative equity.” Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall land Security Review Team —Martin Feldstein (Adviser and Founding Senior (“The Case for Fiscal Stimulus in U.S.,” Adviser, Belfer Center Preven - Korea Herald , February 3, 2009) tive Defense Project) Samantha Power (Former Now: Special Assistant to the Executive Director, Belfer Michèle Flournoy ( Former President and Senior Director Center Human Rights Research Fellow, Belfer for European Affairs Initiative) Center International “Among European populations, Security Program) Served as: Member, Depart - there is a growing lack of enthusiasm for defense ment of State Review Team Now: Under Secretary of spending and far-flung military commitments. . . . Defense for Policy Looking ahead, the next American administration “As supplemental war funding will need to work overtime to achieve consensus on John P. White ( Faculty decreases and pressures on the what this [NATO] alliance actually does and why Co-chair, Belfer Center Dubai defense budget increase, we must continue to fund NATO matters to its citizenry.” Initiative) the recovery and expansion of the Army, Marine —Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall Served as: Lead, Department Corps and Special Operations Forces.” (“Is NATO Dead or Alive?” Huffington Post , of Defense Review Team —Michèle Flournoy April 1, 2008) (“The State of the U.S. Ground Forces,” Center for a New American Security Factsheet, For a list of Center appointments to government, August 25, 2008) including those announced after press time, see http://belfercenter.org/governmentappointments

3 Center Hosts Al Gore and Top Energy/Climate Experts in Climate Solutions Summit by Sharon Wilke R E

T Challenge to Repower America as a starting achieve this objective. While the “Climate N E point. The challenge calls on the nation to Solutions Summit” was off the record, a num - C R

E produce 100 percent of America’s electricity ber of participants proposed possible solutions F L E from renewable energy and truly clean carbon- developed in previous research and analysis. B free sources within ten years. Kelly Sims Gallagher , director of the Belfer Center’s Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group—The United States and The U.S.—which has the China have the unique ability to make or largest economy, uses the most break the climate change threat. A price on energy, and makes the largest CO 2 emissions is the most important first step for the United States. cumulative contribution to Confronting Climate Crisis: Former Vice William Hogan , Raymond Plank Profes - President Al Gore (right) makes a point at a CO 2 in the atmosphere— sor of Global Energy Policy and research direc - Belfer Center “Climate Solutions Summit” to must lead the world in tor of the Harvard Electricity Policy explore solutions to energy/climate challenges. Group—A key challenge for electricity market Center Director Graham Allison (left) energy-technology innovation. design and regulation is to support efficient co-hosted the October meeting with Gore. —John P. Holdren infrastructure investment. John P. Holdren , director of the Belfer Center’s Science, Technology, and Public Pol - he Belfer Center hosted former Vice “There are times in the history of our icy program, now science advisor to President TPresident and Nobel Laureate Al Gore nation when our very way of life depends Obama—The U.S., which has the largest and 30 of the United States’ top energy and upon dispelling illusions and awakening to the economy, uses the most energy, and makes the climate experts in October for a solutions sum - challenge of a present danger. . . . This is such largest cumulative contribution to CO 2 in the mit on the climate challenge. Moderated by a moment,” Gore said on July 17, 2008 when atmosphere, must lead the world in energy- Gore and Belfer Center Director Graham he made his “Repower America” challenge. technology innovation. Allison , the participants brainstormed con - The Summit discussion attempted to gen - Henry Lee , director of the Belfer Center’s crete solutions to producing carbon-free elec - erate practical steps toward the design and Environment and Natural Resources Pro - tricity, using Gore’s July 2008 Generational implementation of initiatives that could gram—Reducing oil imports requires more efficient modes of moving goods and people, Climate Team Suggests Alternatives to Kyoto alternative fuels, and reductions in vehicle miles traveled. by Sasha Talcott Dan Schrag , director of the Harvard Uni - versity Center for the Environment—An new report from the Harvard Project on work Convention on Climate Change— essential component of any carbon reduction AInternational Climate Agreements out - addresses some of the key issues that negotia - strategy for the U.S. and the world is the lines several promising ideas for successors to tors must tackle before reaching a global deal demonstration and deployment of technologies the Kyoto Protocol. The report also provides to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the cause to capture carbon dioxide from large stationary guidance on the most intractable challenges of climate change. sources and store the waste CO 2 in geological facing global climate negotiators, including formations. participation by developing countries, how to reduce deforestation, and how to prevent a [The report] highlights four “collision” between climate policy and interna - credible approaches that could R E tional trade law. T

succeed the Kyoto Protocol. N E

The report—an interim document pro - C R duced for global climate negotiators who con - E F L E vened in December in Poznan, Poland, for the The Harvard Project report synthesizes the B 14th Conference of the Parties of the Frame - work of 26 research teams from around the

E world. It highlights four credible approaches W

O that could succeed the Kyoto Protocol, ranging T S

B from a top-down agreement similar to the O

R Kyoto Protocol, but both stronger and more flexible, to a more decentralized framework that links national cap-and-trade systems. The project also examines an international system of national carbon taxes and a system of paral - lel international agreements that separately address different sectors and gases, as well as key issues such as adaptation, technology Laying Foundations: Robert Stavins (center), director of the Harvard Project on International R&D, and remedies like geoengineering. Expert Overview: Carole Browner , now White Climate Agreements, Carlo Carraro (left) of The team’s presentations can be down - House coordinator of energy and climate policy, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, and Jing Cao loaded on the Belfer Center website: at Al Gore’s “Climate Solutions Summit” in (right) of Tsinghua University, discuss global http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication October. Browner is a former administrator of climate policy at a Conference of the Parties side /18690/ . the Environmental Protection Agency. event in Poznan, Poland, in December. 4 Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: Agenda for the President’s Opening Weeks in Office

This article is adapted Steps for the Opening Weeks • Establish interagency “tiger teams” to from “Preventing President Obama should take some key steps develop approaches to overcoming the Nuclear Terrorism: An in the first weeks of his administration: obstacles to progress for each major country Agenda for the Next • Appoint a full-time senior official for with stockpiles to secure—and for develop - President” (November efforts to prevent nuclear terrorism. ing global nuclear security standards. 2008) by Matthew • Issue a directive making clear that pre - • Seek an appropriation in the range of $500 Bunn and Andrew Newman. For full text, see venting nuclear terrorism will be a top million, to be available until expended, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication that can be spent flexibly on high-priority /18673 . priority for U.S. national security policy and diplomacy. actions to reduce the risk of nuclear theft. • Invite leaders to a summit on preventing Congress will have to pass a new budget resident Barack Obama took office in a nuclear terrorism. This should be an early for the remainder of FY 2009 by March 6, Pworld where the danger that terrorists initiative, to communicate the priority he when the current continuing resolution could get and use a nuclear bomb remains very places on this effort. (Obama has pledged expires, and the new president should seek real. Al-Qaeda is reconstituting its ability to to do this.) to include this funding in that new budget. carry out complex operations. Despite remark - • The fundamental key to success will be con - able progress in improving nuclear security in vincing political leaders and nuclear man - agers around the world that nuclear Russia, serious risks of nuclear theft remain in With a sensible strategy, that country. Pakistan’s heavily-guarded stock - terrorism is a real and urgent threat to their pile faces severe threats from both al-Qaeda adequate resources, and countries’ security, worthy of a substantial attackers and from insiders linked to violent sustained leadership, the risk of investment of their time and money—some - thing many of them do not believe today. Islamic extremists. Some 130 research reactors nuclear terrorism can be in 30 countries continue to use highly dramatically reduced during With a sensible strategy, adequate enriched uranium (HEU) as their fuel—in resources, and sustained leadership, the risk of some cases, with no more security than a night the new president’s first term. nuclear terrorism can be dramatically reduced watchman and a chain-link fence. during the new president’s first term. Schlesinger Reports Call Attention to Nuclear Mission and Deterrence by Beth Maclin

wo groups focusing on nuclear nuclear deterrence throughout the DoD. It Tweapons—both chaired by James argues that, “while the nation’s dependence on The Task Force found Schlesinger , former secretary of energy, nuclear weapons has been reduced, nuclear widespread fragmentation, defense, and central intelligence and member weapons nevertheless remain fundamental to dispersal of responsibility, of the Belfer Center International Council— deterrence.” recently released reports detailing threats and Moreover, the report notes, “The Task and weakening of authorities challenges relating to the United States’ Force found widespread fragmentation, disper - in the . . . management of the nuclear stockpile and policy. sal of responsibility, and weakening of authori - nuclear mission . . . The Task Force on the Department of ties in the Office of the Secretary of Defense’s Defense (DoD) Nuclear Weapons Manage - (OSD) management of the nuclear mission ment released its Phase II report, “Review of and the nuclear weapons mission area. The This report follows the Phase I report, the DoD Nuclear Mission,” in January. The decline in management attention to nuclear “The Air Force’s Nuclear Mission,” which was Task Force found a “distressing” and “wide - matters is evidenced by a dramatically reduced released last September. spread” inattention to the nuclear mission and workforce, fragmentation of nuclear policy and The second group—the Congressional guidance responsibility across the Commission on the Strategic Posture, which R E

T office, dilution of organizational Schlessinger co-chairs with William Perry , co- N E

C focus because of proliferating mis - director of the Belfer Center/Stanford Preven - R

E sions, and relegation of nuclear- tive Defense Project—released its interim F L E

B focused organizations to positions report in December and will release the final of lower authority. The remaining report in April 2009. workforce lacks both depth and The interim report found that nuclear ter - breadth of nuclear expertise.” rorism poses a growing nuclear threat to the Among other recommenda - nation. It offers four security imperatives to tions, the report calls for an assis - defend against nuclear terrorism: (1) reduce tant secretary of defense (ASD) for and provide better protection for existing deterrence in the Office of the nuclear stockpiles of weapons and fissile Under Secretary of Defense for material; (2) keep new nations from going Policy (OUSD(P)). It notes: “All nuclear; (3) provide effective protection for existing OUSD(P) offices that the fissile material generated by enrichment, Powerful Pair: James Schlesinger (right), a member of the deal with nuclear, chemical, bio - reprocessing, and commercial nuclear reac - Belfer Center International Council, makes a point to Nobel logical, and missile defense issues tors; and (4) improve our tools to detect clan - Laureate Roy L. Glauber at a Center seminar in which should be realigned under the destine delivery of nuclear weapons and Schlesinger spoke on the role of oil in national security. new ASD.” defend against them. 5 R E T N

Panel Calls on President and Congress to E C R E F L

by Sasha Talcott E

Address WMD Proliferation B

elfer Center Director Graham Allison The Commission was chaired by former Bserved on the Commission on the Preven - Senator Bob Graham , a Belfer Center affiliate tion of Weapons of Mass Destruction Prolifer - and former senior fellow. ation and Terrorism, which released its report in December. The congressionally appointed Commission called on then President-elect It is likely that a weapon of Barack Obama and Congress to immediately mass destruction will be used in Preventing the Worst: Former Senator Bob initiate several concrete actions, unilaterally a terrorist attack somewhere in Graham (left), at a Center seminar, discusses and with the international community, to recommendations of the report “World at Risk” address the proliferation of weapons of mass the world by the end of 2013. by the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and destruction that pose the greatest peril: nuclear —Bob Graham Terrorism, which he chaired. Also pictured: Tad and biological weapons. Oelstrom , director of Harvard Kennedy The commissioners briefed Vice President- School’s National Security Program. elect Joseph Biden , then President George W. “Ours remains a world at risk and our mar - Bush , and congressional leaders on the report’s gin of safety is shrinking, not growing,” said Graham. “The Commission believes that and nongovernmental experts in the United findings in December. The Commission cen - States and abroad. tered its findings on several areas where it unless the world community acts decisively and with great urgency, it is likely that a In addition to Graham and Allison, other determined the risks to the United States are commissioners included: former Senator Jim increasing: the crossroads of terrorism and pro - weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the Talent , the Commission’s vice chairman; liferation in the poorly governed parts of Pak - Robin Cleveland , former counselor to the istan; the prevention of biological and nuclear end of 2013.” He said the Commission reached this sobering conclusion following six president of the World Bank; Ambassador terrorism; and the potential erosion of interna - Wendy R. Sherman ; Henry D. Sokolski , tional nuclear security, treaties, and norms as months of deliberations, site visits, and inter - views with more than 250 government officials executive director of the Nonproliferation Pol - we enter a nuclear energy renaissance. icy Education Center; Stephen G. Rademaker , U.S. representative on the U.N. Secretary General’s Advisory Board on Disar - mament Matters; former U.S. Representative Intrastate Conflict Program Advises on Timothy J. Roemer ; and Richard Verma , for - mer senior national security advisor to the Sen - Governance in Africa by Beth Maclin ate majority leader. The WMD report also details concrete rec -

R ommendations to ensure a more efficient and E most effectively be used to strengthen govern - T

N effective domestic policy coordination struc - E mental performance and improve everyday life C ture, oversight reform, and enhanced coopera - R

E in impoverished Rwanda. F

L tion among appropriate law-enforcement and

E The Index of African Governance is an B counterterrorism communities. annual report that ranks 48 sub-Saharan African nations on governance according to 57 different variables, from safety and security Wood joined them, Rotberg and Gisselquist through rule of law to various health and edu - met with the Index African Advisory Council cational attainments. The Index was first pub - over two days. The Council is made up of lished in 2007, and the 2008 report appears as African academics and practitioners who over - a web document and in book form under the see the Index quality. Rotberg and Gisselquist Grading Governance: Robert Rotberg (left), title Strengthening African Governance . also met with parliamentarians in Lilongwe, director of the Belfer Center’s Intrastate Conflict Malawi’s capital, and showed how Malawi, Program (ICP), discusses the program’s Index of which ranked eleventh, might improve its African Governance at a Center seminar with The Index is structured so that scores by strengthening governance and reduc - ICP’s Rachel Gisselquist , Index research director. countries can clearly see areas ing poverty. they might improve. “The Women’s Caucus of Parliament invited us to present the Index results, specifi - he Belfer Center’s Program on Intrastate cally those related to gender,” Gisselquist said. TConflict and Conflict Resolution (ICP) Rwanda, which ranked eighteenth in the “We talked a lot about education, health care, traveled to meet with leaders and officials in most recent Index, wants to improve its score and clean water, and about the particular chal - Rwanda and Malawi in January to discuss the and better the lives of its inhabitants and lenges of communities in peri-urban areas.” 2008 Index of African Governance. attract foreign investment, Rotberg said. The Rotberg and Gisselquist also met with the ICP Director Robert I. Rotberg and Index is structured so that countries can clearly World Bank country director for Malawi and Rachel Gisselquist , research director for the see areas they might improve. his governance team on their last day. They Index of African Governance, first met with “In Kigali, the eighty or so Rwandans at discussed how the Index works, how it differs government officials in Rwanda. The govern - the all-day seminar were interested in the from the World Banks’s own methodology on ment of Rwanda initiated and organized a Index’s many messages for their future,” Rot - governance, and how the diagnostic qualities large seminar in Kigali, Rwanda’s capital, for berg said. of the Index could be used by donors, includ - officials, NGO leaders, and donors to explore In Malawi, where ICP Program Manager ing the World Bank. how the Index of African Governance could Katie Naeve and Editorial Associate Emily

6 Preliminary Policy Recommendations for Enhancing Energy T R Innovation in the U.S. A W E T S A

This article is adapted from the executive summary of the Belfer Center Energy Technology Innovation H T R

Policy research group (ETIP) report, “Tackling U.S. Energy Challenges and Opportunities,” by Laura A Diaz Anadon , Kelly Sims Gallagher , Matthew Bunn , and Charles Jones . The full executive sum - M mary and report are available at http://belfercenter.org/energychallenges .

he Obama administration and the 111th Renewable Energy $850 million Congress face enormous challenges and Opportunities in the portfolio of renewable T Acting in Time: Kelly Sims Gallagher (right) opportunities in tackling the pressing security, energy technologies—wind, geothermal, solar, and biomass—justify a substantial investment discusses energy challenges with newly elected economic, and environmental problems posed U.S. Congressman Paul Tonko at the Kennedy by the energy sector in the United States and increase over FY 2008 levels. School’s annual orientation program for worldwide. Improving the technologies of Hydrogen $220 million incoming members of the U.S. House of energy supply and end-use is a prerequisite for There are more opportunities in fuel cell tech - Representatives in December. Gallagher heads surmounting these challenges in a timely and the Belfer Center’s Energy Technology nology than are being explored, justifying a Innovation Policy research group. cost-effective way. modest increase in the hydrogen programs. Accelerating the development and deploy - decision rules more like that of private enter - ment of advanced energy-supply and end-use Nuclear Fission $350 million prise, to generate quality information about technologies will require a comprehensive Nuclear fission RD&D should focus on commercialized technology. In contrast, realiz - strategy integrating efforts from invention to improving the factors that have limited nuclear ing opportunities for transformational technol - deployment, including strong leadership, align - power’s potential as an energy option—cost, ogy requires stable, long-term funding, tolerance ment of policy incentives, consistency of poli - safety, security, proliferation-resistance, and for risk, and the ability to learn from failure. cies, and a long-term view. In the following waste management. sections we outline our preliminary recom - Nuclear Fusion $450 million Encourage expanded private-sector invest - mendations for near-term actions to strengthen Fusion is a long term prospect that also ment in energy innovation the U.S. effort to develop and deploy advanced advances basic science. The U.S. must meet its Entrepreneurs will react to new rules and laws by energy technologies. Our analysis is continu - commitments to ITER and maintain other innovating. Setting a price on carbon will pro - ing, and we will be publishing long-term pol - fusion work. voke development of innovative ways to reduce icy recommendations later this year. The carbon emissions. Government must also elicit budget recommendations in this paper are Develop, publish, and implement a compre - private-sector innovation through creating and only for fiscal year (FY) 2010. They represent hensive U.S. energy innovation strategy managing effective public-private partnerships. minimum levels based on ramping up from FY The United States urgently needs a compre - The federal government should increase its sup - 2008 levels where such increases are most hensive energy innovation strategy that inte - port to private RD&D by making permanent needed. They do not take into account the grates the full range of policy tools throughout and expanding the research and experimentation amounts provided in the recently approved the innovation chain—from basic research tax credit and by providing tax credits for U.S. economic recovery package. through widespread diffusion—in order to companies building clean-energy demonstration maximize the efficiency and outputs of the projects at home and abroad. Increase the Department of Energy (DOE) U.S. energy innovation system. Strengthen international cooperation in budget for energy research, development, energy research and demonstration to $6,060 million in The United States should expand international FY 2010 (from $4,173 million in FY 2008), The Obama administration cooperation in energy technologies to reduce distributed as follows: should establish expanded the costs and risks of energy innovation, Basic Energy Sciences $1,500 million information-sharing increase the pace of cost reductions through Progress in basic energy sciences is essential to between different energy- expanded learning and deployment, and developing new energy technologies. innovation efforts. encourage other countries to deploy the tech - nologies developed. Fossil Energy $1,700 million Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has been Target and better coordinate incentives Strengthen DOE’s capacity to manage an identified by most analysts as an essential com - for large-scale deployment of energy expanded, integrated federal energy RD&D ponent of any comprehensive plan to reduce technologies enterprise carbon dioxide emissions worldwide. This level The Obama administration should encourage DOE should pursue a portfolio approach with of funding is required to begin a series of com - deployment by setting a price on carbon and a broad set of technologies at every stage of mercial-scale CCS demonstrations in various strengthening targeted incentives in particular technological development. The Obama conditions. sectors—and should integrate these incentives as administration should establish expanded one key element of the comprehensive energy Electric Transmission information-sharing between different energy- innovation strategy recommended above. and Distribution $220 million innovation efforts, more effective coordination The energy challenges facing the United Smart grid technologies are needed to ensure of programs with the private sector, and full States and the world are daunting. But with reliable and efficient electricity delivery. There integration with the national strategy for a comprehensive strategy for and investment should be both a smart grid R&D program energy technology innovation. in energy innovation, new approaches to and regional demonstration projects. Create mechanisms for managing both managing the effort, and policies for mov - Energy Efficiency $770 million demonstration projects and high-risk, ing new technology into the market, the Significant opportunities to improve energy high-potential R&D United States can meet these challenges and performance exist in vehicle technologies, Innovation at the pilot through commercializa - seize the opportunity for leadership in building technologies, and energy storage. tion stages requires procurement, funding, and energy technology. 7 QMegh&an L.A O’Sullivan Meghan L. O’Sullivan is a lecturer in public policy at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Previously, she was special assistant to the president and deputy national security advisor for Iraq and Afghanistan, a position she held from October 2005 to September 2007. She spent more than two years in Iraq, most recently in fall 2008 at the request of Ambassador Ryan Crocker and General Raymond Odierno to help conclude the security agreement and strate - gic framework agreement between the United States and Iraq.

What is the greatest challenge facing Presi - should seek new pledges from President Karzai agreement—or the Iraqis could vote it down Qdent Barack Obama in Iraq? to tackle Afghanistan’s corruption more aggres - in an anticipated referendum in July. But, in sively. Although not well known, the Bush practice, both Washington and Baghdad will One of the greatest challenges facing the new Administration had serious conversations with likely see it as in their interests to broadly administration is how to divide limited the Iraqi government before committing the adhere to the terms of the agreement. Hope - resources between Iraq and Afghanistan. There troops needed for “the surge.” Only with a new fully, they can use the agreements to shift their is a general consensus, driven largely by the Iraqi promise to pursue Shi’a militia that had domestic debates away from the divisive issue reality that Iraq appears to be stabilizing and largely operated with impunity did President of troop presence and direct political energies Afghanistan deteriorating, that resources Bush decide to send more U.S. troops to Iraq. toward the pressing matters of political recon - should flow from Iraq toward Afghanistan. ciliation and institution building. What is the significance of the Strategic What no one wants is to find QFramework Agreement (SFA) and a security What elements of U.S. strategy toward Iraq agreement concluded between the United States Qwill the Obama Administration change? that resources removed from and Iraq in November 2008? Iraq were critical in the These two agreements lay the groundwork for difference between a stable a solid U.S.-Iraqi partnership over the coming Today . . . Iraq has moved from and unstable Iraq. years. The Strategic Framework Agreement (SFA) delineates a range of non-military areas a failed to fragile state. for future U.S.-Iraqi cooperation. The security Resources have already begun to move in agreement provides the legal basis U.S. forces Interestingly, the combination of the security that direction and, on the whole, this is sensi - need to operate in Iraq, absolving Iraq and the agreement and the improvements in the secu - ble. The big question is really one of timing. United States from going to the United rity situation in Iraq over the past 18 months— Afghanistan is a vastly more complicated place, Nations every year for a renewal of the inter - which have allowed for the drawdown of U.S. where prospects for success are probably consid - national mandate. At a higher level, but combat brigades without a significant upswing erably lower than in Iraq. What no one wants is equally significant, the SFA and the security in violence—diminishes the chances that the to find that resources removed from Iraq were agreement provide a much needed, common Obama Administration will dramatically refash - critical in the difference between a stable and vision to both Iraqis and Americans about the ion the U.S. military strategy in Iraq. The unstable Iraq—only to discover that those nature and duration of U.S. engagement in biggest difference between the Bush and resources are insufficient to change the trajec - Iraq. Up until this time, this vision had been Obama teams may be how they interact with tory in Afghanistan. In that case, the United lacking—and the uncertainty surrounding the the Iraqi political leadership. There has been a States and the region would be in worse shape open-ended nature of the U.S. presence was a great deal of talk about how the Obama all around. The U.S. also needs to use its will - major preoccupation in both Iraqi and Ameri - Administration will make better use of U.S. ingness to commit additional troops as leverage can politics. leverage with the Iraqis. And, in fact, the to convince the Afghan government to take improved security situation has opened the actions only it can do to help the country suc - door to the greater use of conditionality. ceed. Most importantly, the U.S. government The security agreement During much of the Bush Administration R

E envisions a gradual, full years, the weakness of the Iraqi state argued T N E departure of American forces against hard threats to withdraw American C

R support which, if made good on, could have E

F over three years. L

E pushed Iraq to conflict or collapse—harming B both Iraqi and U.S. interests. Today, as U.S. The security agreement tells Iraqis and military planners point out, Iraq has moved Americans that U.S. forces are leaving Iraq, from a failed to fragile state. As a result, there but not in large numbers immediately. The are fewer single points of strategic failure. Iraq’s security agreement envisions a gradual, full strengthening political institutions give greater departure of American forces over three years. scope for the constructive use of conditional - And it acknowledges the primacy of Iraqi sov - ity. In making certain types of U.S. support ereignty—through the end of unilateral com - conditional, the United States should first bat operations and the turning over of Iraqi assess that Iraq has the capacity to meet Amer - detainees to the government of Iraq. Such ican requests and that a withdrawal of Ameri - actions make the overall arrangement more can support would not destabilize Iraq Future of Forces: Meghan O’Sullivan , lecturer politically sustainable than the UN mandate, irreversibly. I think the new administration in public policy with the Belfer Center, speaks which gave greater authorities and immunities will find the Iraqis better positioned to deliver from Baghdad via teleconference with the to coalition forces. Either the U.S. or Iraqi and be an equal partner with the United States Center’s board of directors in November. government could abrogate the security than in the past. 8 T R A W E T

S Providing Leadership . . A H T R A

M BELF R E T N

Investing in Common Sense: E C

Clark Winter , Belfer Center R E F

International Council member, L E speaks on a way of thinking B about the markets based on finding and assessing enough of the right information and using common sense. He discussed his recent book The Either/Or Investor: How to Succeed at Confluence of Crises: Ban Ki-moon (right), secretary-general Global Investing, One Decision at of the UN, delivers a call to action on global challenges during a Time . Winter, founder of a John F. Kennedy, Jr. Forum in October. He commended Winter Capital International, Harvard for its sustainability initiative and warned that the an independent advisory firm, world is facing a dangerous confluence of crises. spoke at the Center in Octo - ber. Also pictured is Ernest R

E May , member of the Belfer T

N Center Board of Directors. E C R E F L E R B

Presidential Problems: David Ignatius , author E T N

and Washington Post columnist, discusses E C

possible scenarios the Obama administration R E F

may confront with regard to al-Qaeda, the L E recession, and other critical issues. Ignatius B examined a range of foreign policy challenges with the Belfer Center Board of Directors and noted suggestions he might give the incoming administration. Ignatius spoke at the Center in November.

EPA Afterthoughts: Mary Gade , president of Gade Environmental Group LLC and former Region 5 administrator for the Environmental Protection Agency, speaks at a Center seminar in November entitled “Back to the Future: EPA Revisited.” Gade resigned her EPA position in May 2008 in a dispute with the agency’s leadership over enforcement actions involving Dow Chemical Co. and dioxin contamination of a Michigan river system. She presented at the Center in November. T R A R E W E T T N S E C A H R T E F R L A E M B

U.S.-Russian Engagement: Tad Oelstrom (right), director of Harvard Kennedy School’s National Security Program (NSP), with Russian General Alexander Shtukaturov (center) and Rolf Mowatt-Larssen (left), senior Congressional Hearing: Dorothy Zinberg , lecturer in public policy with fellow with the Belfer Center, following a presentation at the NSP’s annual the Belfer Center, speaks with Congressman Aaron Schock of Illinois at U.S.-Russia Security Program. The program, organized by Oelstrom, took place Harvard Kennedy School’s annual orientation program for incoming at the school in February. members of Congress in December.

9 F. AEdvaRncingVPolic Iy-SReleIvaTnt KOnowleRdge S T R R

Senatorial Session: Senator John E A T N W Kerry (left) comments on Al E E T C

S Gore’s Generational Challenge R E A F

H to Repower America during the L T E R Belfer Center solutions summit B A M on the climate crisis in October. The summit, which brought together 30 experts in energy and climate change, was hosted by Al Gore (right) and Center Director Graham Allison . The participants brainstormed solutions to producing carbon- free electricity. (See page 4.) Weapon-free World: Former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn (center), co-chairman and chief executive officer of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, with former Secretary of Defense Robert S. McNamara (left) and Belfer Center Director Graham Allison , before Nunn’s delivery of the first Robert S. McNamara Lecture on War and Peace

at a John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum in October. R E T N E R C E T R E N F E L C E B R E F L E B

Web Warrior: James K. Glassman , undersecretary for public diplomacy and public affairs in the George W. Bush administration, speaks about Internet technology to fight terrorism at a Center seminar in December. Cristine Russell (left), senior fellow with the Environment and Situations of State: Paula Dobriansky , under secretary of state for democracy Natural Resources and global affairs in the George W. Bush administration, speaks in December Program at the Belfer about “Global Issues in the Current Context.” Dobriansky was responsible for a Center, took part in broad range of foreign policy issues. Also pictured: Joseph S. Nye , member of the discussion. the Belfer Center Board of Directors. R E R T E T N E N E C C R E R F E L F E L B E B

Iranian Ire: Ambassador Nicholas Burns (left), professor of the practice Intelligent Policy: Hope LeBeau , joint research fellow with the Belfer Center’s of diplomacy and international politics and member of the Belfer Center International Security Program and Intelligence and Policy Project, discusses the Board of Directors, listens to a comment from fellow board member intelligence project with Center faculty and fellows. The aim is to provide new Martin Feldstein during a Center seminar in October on “Containing members of Congress with information and training on the Intelligence the Iran Threat.” Community.

10 SNiPall FeOrgusonTby SashLa TalcotIt GHT Niall Ferguson is the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University and a member of the Belfer Center Board of Directors.

n early 2007, the investment industry was the unique role financial markets played in Iriding high. Industry newsletters trumpeted both the rise of the West and in precipitating claims that market volatility was a thing of periods of social upheaval. His newest book, the past. Interest rates were low, encouraging The Ascent of Money , traces these themes in borrowing. detail. In Las Vegas that year, hedge fund man - agers convened a conference to toast their suc - cesses. During one particularly glossy Ferguson . . . dubbed than in America. Thus, he notes, in relative presentation, a hedge fund manager argued that the financial crisis terms the United States may not lose power. there would never again be a U.S. recession. “The Great Repression.” Ferguson also argues that the current eco - Niall Ferguson, a Harvard Business School nomic crisis highlights the dangers of being an professor and a member of the Belfer Center’s indebted empire, especially as it comes to Board of Directors, stood up from the floor to When he struck the bet with the hedge financing America’s national debt with Asian challenge him. Later, the two decided to make fund manager, Ferguson had just completed a savings. it a bet. handful of papers examining signs of trouble The crisis “will reveal the fundamental vul - “I said, ‘Never is a very bad timeframe,’” in the American financial empire. In 2006, he nerability of the United States,” Ferguson said. Ferguson said. “‘Let’s say five years.’” researched the ramifications of a sudden liq - “We rely on foreign capital—and that’s drying uidity crisis, tracing the way that an unex - up fast.” pected spark could make the entire system One reason Ferguson has been able to There were powerful forces seize up. He also wrote in the New York Times make such timely—and accurate—predictions: at work . . . History was that excessive American indebtedness would He extrapolates the lessons of history and just waiting to deliver a ultimately provoke a crisis. applies them judiciously to current events. Born in Glasgow in 1964, Ferguson rose When studying the lead-up to World War I, sucker punch. rapidly in European academia, first as a for example, Ferguson noted a mismatch —Niall Ferguson Hanseatic Scholar in Hamburg and Berlin, between the wildly optimistic financial markets and later as Fellow and Tutor in Modern His - of the time and the darkening political clouds. tory at Oxford’s Jesus College. He came to The bet: $14,000, with 7 to 1 odds. If Harvard in 2004 after a brief stint in New there were no recession before 2012, Ferguson York University. He extrapolates the lessons of would pay the hedge fund manager $14,000. Ferguson, writing in the Financial Times in history and applies them If the economy went south, the hedge fund the fall, dubbed the financial crisis “The Great judiciously to current events. manager would owe Ferguson $100,000. Repression”—both because the financial risk is “There were powerful forces at work,” Fer - comparable in scale to the 1930s, but also guson said. “Not many people saw there would because governments are repressing the full “Until the last week of July, 1914 looked as be a spectacular unraveling. History was just extent of the damage through injecting liquid - if it would be another good financial year,” waiting to deliver a sucker punch.” ity into the banking system. “The Great Ferguson wrote in TIME magazine in January Ferguson’s caution was well-grounded in Repression” also has a psychological connota - 2007. “The stock-market crash of seven years academic research. For years, he has studied tion, Ferguson said: “We’re all in some degree before had almost faded from memory. Infla - R E of denial about how bad it is.” tion was under control, and interest rates had T N E Ferguson wrote in “An Imaginary Retro - stabilized. Emerging markets were booming. C R

E spective of 2009” for the Financial Times in On the back of sustained global growth, com - F L

E December, in which he quoted a fictitious modity prices were up. Best of all, volatility B advisor to President Obama: “‘We assumed was as low as most investors could remember. that we economists had learned how to com - Sound familiar?” bat this kind of crisis,’ the advisor admitted in The 1914 analogy was one key reason Fer - late 2009, shortly after returning to academic guson wrote in the same TIME article, aptly life. ‘We thought that if the Fed injected titled, “The Next Meltdown,” “A stock-market enough liquidity into the financial system, we shutdown in 2007? History warns us not to could avoid deflation. We thought if the gov - rule it out.” ernment ran a big enough deficit, we could Although Ferguson has made his career out end a recession. It turned out we were wrong.’ of studying financial institutions, getting rich So much for [John Maynard] Keynes . So has never been his top priority. Thus, it is easy much for [Milton] Friedman .” to see why, when betting against the hedge To Ferguson, the financial meltdown has fund manager in 2007, Ferguson made one geopolitical implications as well. Although crucial misstep: He agreed that neither side can some have argued that the crisis will accelerate collect their winnings until 2012. Past Applications: Niall Ferguson discusses America’s decline, the same economic forces “By which time, the dollar may be worth - lessons from past world crises with colleagues also have undermined the United States’ less or his fund may go out of business,” Fer - on the Belfer Center Board of Directors. geopolitical rivals—to some extent even worse guson said.

11 International Security • EnviroNnmentEand WNatural RSesourMces Belfer Center Director Graham Allison is the recipient of the 2009 National Academy of Sci - “THE ARCHITECTURE THAT HAS FOR “THE FEATURES THAT CONGRESS ences’ Award for Behavioral FOUR DECADES held back powerful pres - ADDED to the initial treasury plan do noth - Research Relevant to the Pre - sures for the proliferation of nuclear weapons ing to achieve sustained confidence in the vention of Nuclear War. He is is shaking. As the UN High Level Panel on financial institutions. They provide Congres - being honored for illuminating Threats, Challenges and Change warned, the sional oversight, delay the use of funds, create alternative ways of thinking about political deci - Nonproliferation Treaty is eroding to the point partial government equity ownership in some sion making with special relevance to crises, of ‘irreversibility’ beyond which there could be firms and do other things to protect taxpayers. including nuclear crises, as demonstrated in his a ‘cascade of proliferation.’” But they do not address falling home prices.” groundbreaking Essence of Decision and subse - quent works. Former recipients include Nobel —Graham Allison and Ernesto Zedillo , “The —Martin Feldstein , “The Problem Is Still laureate and former Harvard Kennedy School Fragility of the Global Nuclear Order,” Boston Falling House Prices,” Wall Street Journal Professor Thomas Schelling. Globe (September 30, 2008) (October 4, 2008) Ashton B. Carter , co-director “PREVENTING NUCLEAR TERRORISM “CYBER THREATS AND POTENTIAL of the Belfer Center’s Preventive must be a top priority of U.S. national security CYBER WARFARE illustrate the increased Defense Project, was invited to policy, and securing global stockpiles of vulnerabilities and loss of control in modern become a member of the Amer - nuclear weapons and materials is the most societies. Governments have mainly been con - ican Academy of Diplomacy effective way to achieve this.” (AAD). Carter’s invitation to cerned about hacker attacks on their own AAD was based on his contin - —Matthew Bunn and Andrew Newman , “A bureaucracy’s information technology infra - ued contributions to American diplomacy, par - Working Relationship,” Baltimore Sun (Octo - structure, but there are social vulnerabilities ticularly his work on denuclearization of ber 7, 2008) well beyond government computers.” Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus, his negotions “DEEP CUTS IN U.S. AND RUSSIAN —Joseph Nye , “Cyber Insecurity,” Daily News with North Korea, and his chairmanship of the Egypt (December 14, 2008) NATO High Level Group. NUCLEAR ARSENALS, when carried out responsibly, reduce the risk of accidents, “THE PRIORITY IS INFRASTRUCTURE. The New York Association for weaken incentives for other states to arm, and Business Economics (NYABE), No country will progress far without public enhance the credibility of U.S. pleas for tighter utilities such as power, telecommunications, an association of professionals nonproliferation rules worldwide.” who have an interest in business water, sanitation, irrigation and waste disposal, economics, presented its Annual —Martin Malin , “U.S., Russia Must Unite to without social infrastructure such as schools, Butler Award to Martin Feld - Lessen Nuclear Dangers,” Washington Times housing and hospitals, without transport net - stein, a member of the Belfer (September 23, 2008) works such as roads, railways, ports, waterways Center Board of Directors and former chief eco - “WE SAID WE WOULD NEVER LET IT and airports, and without laboratories and nomic advisor to President Ronald Reagan. other research facilities.” Feldstein spoke about “Dealing with the Finan - HAPPEN AGAIN, but what have we done to cial Crisis” at an award luncheon in October. live up to that pledge? We have not destroyed —Calestous Juma , “Learn to Earn,” Nature al-Qaeda, but our failures don’t stop there.” (October 2008) Ben Heineman , a senior fellow at the Belfer Center, was named —Richard Clarke , “9/11—We Said We’d “BUT RISING CLIMATE-CHANGE CON - one of most influential people Never Let It Happen Again, and Yet It Might,” CERNS HAVE PUSHED SOME scientists and in ethics and government by the US News and World Report (September 11, 2008) policy experts out of their comfort zone, into anti-corruption and ethics mag - “INSPIRATION AND KNOW-HOW CAN stepped-up efforts to communicate with the azine Ethisphere for his book, BE DISSEMINATED, and plans formed, press and the public. ‘What is it going to take?’ High Performance with High asked scientist Lonnie Thompson, who is con - Integrity . In addition, Heineman served on an online between radicals who need not even cerned about not only the polar glaciers, but also international advisory group evaluating the have met. But the crucial difference is that any World Bank’s global Governance and Anticor - given terrorist can be replaced with another. the ‘dying’ tropical mountain glaciers that are ruption Strategy. That means any terrorist group cannot be con - crucial to water supplies from Peru to China.” clusively defeated. This fact calls for a change —Cristine Russell , “Juggling Beats, Localizing Karen E. House , adjunct senior in how Western governments address terror.” fellow at the Belfer Center, was Climate,” Columbia Journalism Review (Octo - confirmed in October as a U.S. —Azeem Ibrahim , “Islamist Terrorism Goes ber 17, 2008) Freelance,” Chicago Tribune (December 3, 2008) Representative to the 63rd Ses - “ANY CHANGE IN IRAN’S POLICY IN sion of the U.N. General Assembly by the U.S. Senate. “A WIDE VARIETY OF STUDIES CON - THE MIDDLE EAST will depend on the House was appointed to CLUDE that between 50 and 85 percent of Obama administration’s policy communicating advance U.S. positions on international security the growth of the U.S. economy over the past a fundamental ‘change’ in recognizing Iran’s issues. half-century—and two-thirds of our produc - key interests and accepting its role in the Per - tivity gains in recent decades—are directly sian Gulf and Iraq. Iran and the U.S. now Azeem Ibrahim , a research fel - attributable to scientific and technological regard the growth of each other’s role in the low with the Belfer Center’s International Security Program, advances. . . . [W]e must resist the temptation region as contrary to their national interests was appointed to the Prime to reduce our investments in these foundations and security. President Obama should change Minister’s Task Force Examining of our prosperity.” this new point of strategic difference.” Social Mobility in the UK. The —Statement of John P. Holdren , director- —Kayhan Barzegar , “Iran and Obama: The new commission was established designate, Office of Science and Technology Grand Bargain on Roles,” Tabnak (December to help people from disadvantaged backgrounds Policy. Confirmation Hearing, U.S. Senate 8, 2008) access career opportunities in key professions. Committee on Commerce, Science, and Trans - portation (February 12, 2009) 12 M• SAcience,KTechEnologRy, andS Public Policy • Intrastate Conflict Erin Jenne , a former research fellow with the Belfer Center’s “WE HAVE PUT TOO MANY OF THE “FORTUNATELY, THERE IS ALSO GOOD International Security Program WORLD’S PROBLEMS on the shoulders of REASON TO BELIEVE that the means are (2000–02), received the annual our generals and intelligence officers when now available to turn the tide. Financial Edgar S. Furniss Book Award for diplomacy—our ability to persuade, cajole or authorities, in the United States and elsewhere, her book, Ethnic Bargaining: The threaten an opponent—is sometimes the better are now in a position to take needed and con - Paradox of Minority Empower - and more effective way to proceed. We need to vincing action to stabilize markets and to ment . Past winners include John Mearsheimer, Barry Posen, and the Belfer Center’s Stephen trust our ability to outmaneuver dangerous restore trust.” Walt. regimes at the negotiating table and in the —Paul Volcker , “We Have the Tools to Man - high court of international public opinion.” age the Crisis,” Wall Street Journal (October Calestous Juma , a member of the Belfer Center Board of —Nicholas Burns , “We Should Talk to Our 10, 2008) Directors and director of the Enemies,” Newsweek (October 25, 2008) “THE ILLS OF TWO DECADES IN Center’s Science, Technology, “ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NUMEROUS SOUTH ASIA can be attributed to the and Globalization project, was ISSUES ON THE US-IRAN AGENDA, such Afghan jihad years: the rise of the Taliban, the appointed to the Center for the Study of the Presidency and as Iran’s support for terrorism, role in Iraq and dominance of Pakistani-sponsored religious Congress’ Innovation, Comparative Advantages opposition to the Middle East peace process, fanatics within the Kashmir freedom move - and Synergies Team (ICAST), which is part of the nuclear issue is of such overwhelming ment, and the eventual spread of sectarian CSPCI’s new Strengthening America’s Future importance that it should be given clear prece - conflict within Pakistan.” Initiative project. The project steering committee dence and, if necessary, be treated as a stand- —Hassan Abbas , “South Asia at War,” briefed then President-elect Obama and is work - alone issue.” Guatemala Times (January 7, 2009) ing with the new administration and Congress. —Chuck Freilich , “Engaging Iran Effec - Viktor Mayer-Schönberger , a “SADLY, IT IS CLEAR THAT THE tively,” Bitter Lemons (December 4, 2008) faculty affiliate of the Belfer BOARDS OF OUR MAJOR FINANCIAL Center, was named director of “WASHINGTON CANNOT RESIST A INSTITUTIONS did not understand the the new Information and Inno - RUSSIAN SPHERE of influence stretching risks the entities were taking. It may be that vation Policy Research Center at from the Black Sea to Aral Mountains unless it the CEOs and top management didn’t under - the National University of Sin - plays the Iran card to its advantage. That stand, either, but it is the board’s job to press gapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of means dropping its objection to the flow of management.” Public Policy. The Lee Kuan Yew School works Iranian gas to Europe, and engaging Iran in —Ben Heineman , “Boards Fail—Again,” closely with the Harvard Kennedy School. talks on security and stability of the Caucasus.” Business Week (September 26, 2008) Joseph S. Nye, Jr ., a member of —Vali Nasr , “Obama is Right About Talking the Belfer Center Board of to Iran,” Wall Street Journal (October 13, 2008) “WHEN OBAMA ASSUMES OFFICE, Directors, is chair of the North THE POWER OF HIS ROOTS and his American group of the Trilateral “IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE charisma may be able to persuade Africans to Commission. In the position, ULTIMATE COST TO THE TREASURY of disbar Mugabe. But the end of January is too Nye works with 120 members the bailout and the other commitments that late. Zimbabwe needs political re-fashioning from Canada, Mexico, and the financial authorities have made—this will now, and not by telling Tsvangirai to take U.S. The Commission is a private organization depend primarily on the economy as well as whatever he can get and somehow move for - founded in 1973 to foster closer cooperation the quality of execution and oversight.” ward from a point of palpable weakness, as between United States, Europe, and Japan. —Lawrence Summers , “A Bailout is Just a suggested by former President Jimmy Carter Robert Stavins , member of the Start,” Washington Post (September 29, 2008) and the elders. Mugabe cannot be trusted.” Center’s board of directors, was —Robert Rotberg , “Uniting Against named a ‘Friends of the Saltire Prize’ by the government of “ISRAEL IS USING THE TWO ARSENALS Mugabe’s Corrupt Regime,” Boston Globe Scotland to help tackle climate it is most comfortable with—military force . . . (December 13, 2008) and the equivalent political overkill to blud - change. Along with Mayor geon the American political establishment into “LEADERSHIP TRANSITIONS ARE A Richard Daley, Joseph Stigletz, total submission.” PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING TIME and John Fahey, Stavins will help raise awareness of the £10 million prize, Scotland’s effort to “gal - —Rami Khouri , “Gaza’s Impact on the Arab for civil-military relations. Personal relation - vanise Scottish and international scientists to World,” Agence Global (January 14, 2009) ships are embryonic, and interactions can push the frontiers of innovation in clean, green be rife with missteps and misunderstandings marine renewable energy.” “THE CHALLENGE IS TOUGH BUT as new partners begin their work together. NOT IMPOSSIBLE . In the past decade, A significant joint program of orientation Astrid Tuminez , a former information technology has begun to trans - to build relationships and clarify expectations research fellow with the Belfer form anti-poverty efforts and bring to the Center’s International Security is critical.” Program (1990–91), has poverty world some of the increases in produc - —Sarah Sewall and John White , “The Civil- accepted the positions of assis - tivity that have been common in the private Military Challenge,” Boston Globe (January 29, tant dean for executive educa - sector. If Obama can expand on this, the 2009) tion and director of research at chances for him to make good on a broad the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan social justice agenda will increase in spite of Yew School of Public Policy. the other challenges he faces.” (To read opeds in full, see Publications on the —Elaine Kamarck , “Look to the Internet to Belfer Center website: www.belfercenter.org ) Fight Poverty,” Boston Globe (November 29 —Compiled by Courtney Anderson and Beth —Compiled by Beth Maclin 2008) Maclin 13 Power and Restraint: A Shared Vision for the U.S.–China Relationship HOT OFF Edited by Richard Rosecrance and Guo Guoliang; Public Affairs (March 2009) Over several years, some of the most distinguished Chi - nese and American scholars THE PRESSES have engaged in a major research project, sponsored by Eve of Destruction: The Coming Age of and burned-over forests, eroded topsoil, depleted the China–U.S. Exchange Foun - Preventive War farmlands, streams choked with refuse and pollution, dation (USEF), to address the By Thomas M. Nichols; University of Pennsylvania and species at the very brink of extinction. The stories big bilateral and global issues Press (2008) told here are of people using what they had, setting to the two countries face. Histor - work to remedy these conditions, and doing so suc - In an age of new threats to ically, the ascension of a great cessfully. At a time of growing concern for the envi - international security, the old power has resulted in armed ronment both locally and globally, theirs is a story rules of war are rapidly being conflict. This group of scholars—experts in politics, certain to inform and inspire the next generation of discarded. The great powers economics, international security, and environmental conservation leaders. are moving toward norms less studies—set out to establish consensus on potentially restrictive of intervention, pre - “This important work not only chronicles contentious issues and elaborate areas where the two emption, and preventive war. the long history of cooperation on pre - nations can work together to achieve common goals. This evolution is taking place serving our natural places in New England, Featuring essays on global warming, trade relations, not only in the United States but also serves as a testimonial . . . to our Taiwan, democratization, WMDs, and bilateral humani - but also in many of the world’s most powerful nations, region’s national leadership on conserva - tarian intervention, Power and Restraint finds that including Russia, France, and Japan, among others. tion issues.” China and the United States can exist side by side Eve of Destruction is a provocative contribu - —John F. Shea, director of policy and programs, and establish mutual understanding to better cope tion to a growing international debate over the New England Governors’ Conference, Inc. with the common challenges they face. acceptance of preventive military action. In the first work to identify the trends that have led to Military Leadership: In Pursuit of Excellence, This group of scholars . . . set out a coming age of preventive war, Thomas M. Sixth Edition to establish consensus on potentially Nichols uses historical analysis as well as inter - Edited by Robert L. Taylor, William E. Rosenbach, contentious issues . . . where the views with military officials from around the and Eric B. Rosenbach; Westview Press (February two nations can work together to world to trace the anticipatory use of force from 2009) achieve common goals. the early 1990s—when the international commu - The sixth edition of this classic nity responded to a string of humanitarian crises text continues its popular in Somalia, Bosnia, and Kosovo—to today’s cur - interdisciplinary approach to Strengthening African Governance rent and potential actions against rogue states the topic of leadership by Ibrahim Index of African Governance: Results and terrorists. He makes a case for a bold examining fundamental ele - and Rankings 2008 reform of U.S. foreign policy, and of the United ments of military leadership: By Robert I. Rotberg and Rachel M. Gisselquist; Nations Security Council itself, in order to avert the “process” of leadership, Mo Ibrahim Foundation; Harvard Kennedy outright anarchy. the dynamic personal interac - School; World Peace Foundation (October 2008) tions between leader and fol - “ . . . a smart, incisive, and All citizens of all countries lowers, and the individual and desire to be governed well. important book.” organizational values that foster effective military Nation-states in the modern leadership. Military Leadership provides a thoroughly world are responsible for the “Thomas Nichols transcends sterile reconsidered and greatly expanded mix of classic and delivery of essential political debates about Iraq and the Bush Doctrine contemporary articles as well as original essays, with goods to their inhabitants. The and points instead to the fundamental ero - authors representing all of the services. Incisive intro - essential political goods can be sion in two long-standing international ductory essays to each section highlight themes and summarized and gathered norms: the inviolability of state sovereignty connections. The essays of the sixth edition confront under five categories: Safety and the unacceptability of preventive war. the kudos and criticisms that surround military lead - and Security; Rule of Law, Transparency, and Corrup - . . . This is a smart, incisive, and important ership today, offer international viewpoints, and relate tion; Participation and Human Rights; Sustainable Eco - book.” military leadership to contemporary leadership the - nomic Opportunity; and Human Development. ory and approaches. —Robert J. Lieber, Georgetown University This 2008 Index measures the degree to “The past several years have demon - which each of these political goods is provided Twentieth-Century New England Land strated the important role that military within the 48 sub-Saharan African countries. By Conservation: A Heritage of Civic Engagement leaders play in both ensuring our national comprehensively measuring the performance of Edited by Charles H.W. Foster; Harvard Forest security and upholding the American val - government in this manner, the Index is able to (March 2009) ues enshrined in the Constitution. This offer a report card on the accomplishments of book not only captures those salient con - Written by and about New each government for the years being investi - temporary issues, but also provides a Englanders, this book is rele - gated—2000 and 2002 (for baseline indications) thoughtful and rich foundation . . . for vant to others attempting to and 2005 and 2006 (the last years with reason - address conservation prob - those looking to expand their understand - ing of military leadership.” ably complete available data for nearly all sub- lems on a regional basis. But Saharan African nation-states). above all, the account is one of —Richard Clarke, Former Special Assistant to hope for the future for, as the the President, National Coordinator for Security authors document, conditions at the turn of the 20th cen - “. . . a thoughtful and rich foundation —Compiled by Susan Lynch , International Security tury were of a nature we . . . for those looking to expand their Program and Science, Technology, and Public Policy would not tolerate today: cut understanding of military leadership.” Program

14 G R O . E D O L G

BELFER IN BRIEF N U F R

E Matthew Bunn , associate professor of public T N

E policy and co-principal investigator of the C R

E Center’s Project on Managing the Atom, was F L

E featured in the CBS 60 Minutes program, “The B Assault on Pelindaba,” which describes a bold break-in of the Pelindaba nuclear reactor and research center in South Africa in November 2007. Dorothy Zinberg , lecturer in public policy and faculty associate with the Belfer Center, delivered the plenary address at the Interna - tional Seminar on the Future of Higher Educa - Colleague Kudos: Sarah Donahue (left), events tion held at the University of Los Andes in coordinator and staff assistant to the Center’s Bogota, Colombia, in November. executive directors, receives the annual Peggy Congratulations on the arrival of several new Scannell Award for Excellence from Belfer Calestous Juma Belfer babies! Welcome to Ella Eiran , daugh - Presidential Presence: (right), Center Director Graham Allison during the director of the Belfer Center’s Science, Center’s holiday party in December. The award, ter of Ehud Eiran and his wife Margot; Estelle Technology, and Globalization project, meets in in memory of longtime Center employee Sims Gallagher , daughter of Kelly Sims- January with H.E. Leonel Fernandez (left), Peggy Scannell, was presented to Donahue Gallagher and her husband Kevin; Naomi president of the Dominican Republic, to discuss “in recognition of her outstanding contributions Leah , daughter of Assaf Moghadam and his the important role universities must play in to the Center and the environment in which wife Yaara Steinhardt; and Jonathan Milo , son helping countries turn the global economic and we work.” of Keren Yarhi-Milo and her husband Ariel. financial crisis into development opportunities.

International Security is America’s leading journal of security affairs. It provides sophisticated analyses of contemporary security issues and discusses their conceptual and historical foundations. WINTER 2008/09 The journal is edited at the Belfer Center and published quarterly by the MIT Press. Questions PRESS RELEASE may be directed to: [email protected] .

Vol. 33, No. 3 for states to rethink their counterterrorism efforts— its expansion in a way that prevented a balancing and to better convey to moderate Muslims and nonvi - coalition from forming: it signaled constraint, laid “The Heart of the Matter: The Security of olent Salafists the importance of challenging these rhetorical traps, and demonstrated a need to Women and the Security of States” groups. secure its identity in international politics—argu - Valerie M. Hudson, Mary Caprioli, Bonnie ments that none of the great powers could legiti - Ballif-Spanvill, Rose McDermott, and “Spoiling Inside and Out: Internal Political Con - mately counter. Similarly, China has carefully framed Chad F. Emmett testation and the Middle East Peace Process” its foreign policy strategy in a way that has pre - Wendy Pearlman A multidisciplinary theoretical and empirical investi - vented balancing against it thus far. The United gation of the “women and peace” thesis not only The explanation that peace processes fail in part States, on the other hand, only halfheartedly tried proves that the physical security and well being of because of spoilers who use violence to maximize to justify the war in Iraq, which dramatically women is directly linked to the security of the gains vis-à-vis their external opponents ignores the increased the cost of fighting the war. Legitimation state, but it explains more of the variance in state crucial role that domestic politics play in constraining theory, then, helps to explain why states fail to bal - peacefulness than do conventional measures such and motivating actors. Interested parties, for example, ance in seemingly predictable ways. as level of democracy, level of wealth, and prepon - are more likely to negotiate or spoil when they lack a “Linkage Diplomacy: Economic and Security derance of Islamic civilization. Scholars and policy - system of legitimate representation, and whether or makers would therefore do best to analyze the not these internal pressures lead groups to negotiate Bargaining in the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, security of women when considering the linkage or spoil depends on the actors’ policy preferences and 1902–23” between state security and peacefulness. the balance of power in the community. Two eras in Christina L. Davis the history of the Palestine national movement The Anglo-Japanese alliance of 1902–23 illus - “Motives for Martyrdom: Al-Qaida, Salafi demonstrate that actors were motivated as much by trates the importance of economic side pay - Jihad, and the Spread of Suicide Attacks” the conflict with Israel as by the internal dynamics of ments as a method for forming and Assaf Moghadam the Palestinian cause. maintaining alliances. It also shows, however, The global proliferation of suicide missions in the influence of domestic factors on con - recent years is a phenomenon that the occupation “Interested parties . . . are more likely straining these types of payments. Security and outbidding theses cannot fully explain. A com - to negotiate or spoil when they lack a concerns often lead a nation to offer side pay - prehensive analysis of 1,857 suicide attacks from system of legitimate representation.” ments to a potential ally, but domestic politi - December 1981 to March 2008 shows that al- cal constraints, partisanship, and changing Qaida’s evolution into a global terrorist actor and strategic needs account for the variation in the growing appeal of its ideology, Salafi jihad, are “When Right Makes Might: How Prussia the economic-security linkage. interrelated factors that have contributed to the Overturned the European Balance of Power” proliferation of suicide attacks. This is the first arti - Stacie E. Goddard cle to test the argument that many suicide attacks Prussia fundamentally changed the balance of power —Compiled by International Security staff can be attributed to jihadist groups, creating a need and politics in nineteenth-century Europe by justifying

15 Nonprofit Org. U. S. Postage PAID The Robert and Renée Belfer Center Nashua, NH for Science and International Affairs Graham Allison, Director Permit No. 375 79 John F. Kennedy Street Cambridge, MA 02138 Tel: 617-495-1400 • Fax: 617-495-8963 www.belfercenter.org Belfer Center Newsletter Editor: Sharon Wilke, Associate Director, Communications, [email protected] Sasha Talcott, Director, Communications [email protected] Beth Maclin, Communications Assistant [email protected] The Communications Office was assisted in production of this newsletter by: Courtney Anderson, Alyssa Arevalo, Katie Belfer Center Mission: To provide leadership in advancing policy-relevant knowledge Bartel, Matan Chorev, Joseph Costa, Susan Lynch, Lily about the most important challenges of international security and other critical issues Strauss-Matathia, Ruta Miniotas, and Emily Wood . where science, technology, environmental policy, and international affairs intersect. Visit our new website at www.belfercenter.org to learn more about the Belfer Center. Tribute to Richard Darman—Public Servant, T

Counselor, Friend by Beth Maclin R A W E T riends and colleagues Reagan administration, as assistant secretary S A H

filled the sanctuary of of commerce in the Ford administration, and T

F R in a succession of Cabinet departments at the A

Harvard’s Memorial M Church in December to Departments of Health, Education, and Wel - remember Richard (Dick) Darman , a mem - fare, Defense, and Justice in the Nixon ber of the Belfer Center Board of Directors, administration. At Harvard Kennedy School, valued colleague of the Harvard community, he was a public service professor and lecturer and star among the public and private sectors. in public policy and management. Darman Darman passed away earlier in the year. was a graduate of Harvard College and Har - High Esteem: Richard Darman’s son William vard Business School. (center) holds a plaque for the Kennedy School’s new Harshbarger, Darman’s Harvard College Richard G. Darman Seminar Room. Darman’s sons He was one of the most roommate, read from a letter that he wrote to Emmet (left) and Jonathan (second from right) remarkable people I’ve known. Darman’s three sons and wife. “He was one joined the tribute for their father along with former Secretary of State James Baker (second from left) —Scott Harshbarger of the most remarkable people I’ve known— in intellect, discipline, focus, precise thoughts and Belfer Center Director Graham Allison (right). and analysis, and public achievement,” said Among those in attendance were The Hon - Harshbarger, the attorney general of Massa - working closely with him. I realized that Dick orable James A. Baker III , who gave the trib - chusetts from 1990–1999 and democratic possessed a mind unlike any I had seen in ute address, Darman’s college roommate Scott gubernatorial candidate in 1998. “While of decades of working with other talented indi - Harshbarger , his colleague from the Carlyle different political bents almost from day one, viduals. His ability to analyze a problem, Group David Rubinstein , and Belfer Center - I always felt pretty good about my country’s develop a creative solution, and persuasively Director Graham Allison . likelihood either of success—or to do less or communicate that solution was truly the prod - Baker, who served in senior government no harm—as long as Dick was there—with uct of a unique and beautiful mind,” he said. positions under three presidents, said Darman Richardson, Reagan and Baker, or Bush One.” “The Kennedy School had no better friend “firmly believed that you could shape a better than Dick Darman, and no better role model nation through monumental hard work, for the many students he recruited, taught, or through love of country, and through a will - Dick possessed a mind unlike any mentored,” said Rubinstein, whose generous ingness to compromise with your fellow I had seen in decades of working donation has made possible the Richard G. Americans.” with other talented individuals. Darman Seminar Room at the school. “Dick Darman was a great public servant, —David Rubenstein The site of the memorial service—Har - wise counselor, great father, and wonderful vard’s Memorial Church—was significant to friend,” Allison said. “He will be mourned by Darman. It was there where he was married more of us than he ever expected.” Rubenstein, founder of the Carlyle Group and where two of his sons had their Harvard In the public sector, he served as director of which Darman joined after leaving govern - welcoming service, where his father-in-law’s the U.S. Office of Management and Budget in ment and the Kennedy School, said, “I name is inscribed, and where the memorial the George H.W. Bush administration, as recruited Dick to join my firm fifteen years service was held for Jeffrey Forbes , a Harvard deputy secretary of the U.S. Treasury in the ago, and had the privilege—and honor—of College roommate.

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