Pacific Forum CSIS Honolulu, Hawaii Number 89 December 28, 2012

2012 PacNet Newsletter Index 12. Xi Visit Underscores Rising Mutual Expectations by Bonnie S. Glaser, Feb. 21 The comprehensive 2012 index of each PacNet newsletter is listed below, with hyperlinks. Pacific Forum CSIS looks 12A. Washington and Beijing Need Straight Talk on forward to continuing to publish timely insight and analysis in Containment by Joseph A. Bosco, Feb. 21 2013. 13. Maldives: Why the US and Should Remain Calm by 1. North Korea: What Not to Do by Victor Cha, Jan. 9 Nilanthi Samaranayake, Mar. 1

1R. Responses to PacNet # 1 North Korea: What Not to Do by 14. US-DPRK Agreement: Limited Progress, But No Evans Revere, Ralph Cossa and Victor Cha, Jan. 11 Breakthrough (Yet) by Ralph Cossa, Mar. 2

1RA. Responses to PacNet #1R: North Korea: What Not to Do 15. Vietnam: New Thinking, New Risks, New Opportunities by Joseph Bosco, Carole Shaw, Evans Revere and Victor Cha, by Le Dinh Tinh, Mar. 6 Jan. 18 16. Asia’s Real “America Problem” by Elbridge Colby and 2. The Time Has Come for Economic Reform in Myanmar by Brad Glosserman, Mar. 13 Bradley Babson, Jan. 12 17. ’s Response to New US Defense Strategy: 3. Comparative Connections Summaries Jan. 13 “Welcome, but…” by Yoichi Kato, Mar. 15

4. ’s Policy Toward After President Lee’s 18. North Korea: Now What? by Ralph Cossa, Mar. 19 Visit by Jaeho Hwang, Jan. 17 18A. Double Down on North Korea’s Bluff by Carl Baker, 5. Congress and Obama’s China Policy, More Bark Than Bite Mar. 19 by Robert Sutter, Jan. 19 19. Kim Jong Un Looks Up at the Sky: Another North Korean 6. Myanmar’s Reforms: The Challenges Ahead by Kyaw San Threat or a Sunshine from the Milky Way? by Pier Luigi Wai, Jan. 24 Zanatta, Mar. 22

6A. All Roads to Myanmar by Zha Daojiong, Jan. 25 20. Wen Signals Something New by Francesco Sisci, Mar. 26

7. Return to Asia: It’s Not (All) About China by Ralph Cossa 21. Time for an Alliance Caucus by Nicole Forrester, Mar. 27 and Brad Glosserman, Jan. 30 22. Myanmar’s Economic Future after the April 1 Elections by 7A. US-India Relations: Pivot Problems by David Karl, Bradley O. Babson, Mar. 29 Jan. 31 23. An ASEAN Peacekeeping Force in Myanmar by Fuadi 8. A Moment for Action for the Life Sciences by Masamichi Pitsuwan, Apr. 2 Minehata and Brad Glosserman, Feb. 2 24. Japan’s DPJ: The Party of Change by Jeffrey Hornung, 9. Protecting Chinese Citizens Abroad: What Next? by Apr. 4 Mathieu Duchatel and Bates Gill, Feb. 6 24A. Misunderstandings on the US Military Bases in Okinawa 10. KORUS as Obamacare: Implications of Calls by Korea’s by Yukie Yoshikawa, Apr. 5 Opposition Parties to Repeal the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement by L. Gordon Flake, Feb. 14 25. Frustration Defines the South Korean Electorate by Brad Glosserman and Dongjoon Park, Apr. 9 11. Future of the US-Marines in Okinawa – Long-Term Risks for Short-Term Gain? by Yuki Tatsumi, Feb. 16 26. Lessons Learned? Responding to North Korea’s Latest Provocations by John Hemmings and Dongjoon Park, Apr. 17 11A. Is Darwin the Glue for US-Indonesian Cooperation? by Justin Goldman, Feb. 17

1003 Bishop Street, Suite 1150, Honolulu, HI 96813 Tel: (808) 521-6745 Fax: (808) 599-8690 Email: [email protected] Web Page: www.pacforum.org 27. Concert or Cacophony? Searching for the Foundations of a 44. Ghosts of History 1, Asian Security 0 by Robert Manning, New International Order by Brad Glosserman, Peter Jul. 17 Walkenhorst and Ting Xu, Apr. 18 45. ASEAN Stumbles in Phnom Penh by Don Emmerson, 28. China, the and the US Security Guarantee by Jul. 19 Donald E. Weatherbee, Apr. 26 45A. A Code of Conduct for the South China Sea? by Rodolfo Severino, Aug. 17 29. The US and Japan Make a Good Step Forward, for Now by Yuki Tatsumi, May 3 46. China’s Coercive Economic Diplomacy – A New and

Worrying Trend by Bonnie S. Glaser, Jul. 23 30. A Thought on American Foreign Policy in East Asia by

Kang Choi, May 15 47. Korea-Japan: Time for Outside Mediation? by Ralph A.

Cossa, Jul. 27 31. Comparative Connections Summaries May 15

47R. Responses to PacNet #47 – Korea-Japan: Time for 32. The Illogic of China’s North Korea Policy by Ralph Cossa Outside Mediation? by Weston S. Konishi and Carole Shaw, and Brad Glosserman, May 16 Sept. 6

32R. Responses to PacNet #32 – The Illogic of China’s North 48. China’s New City: Is this Beijing’s Pivot? by Robert Korea Policy by Leif-Eric Easley, Jonathan T. Chow, Winston Manning, Aug. 3 Lord and Joseph Bosco, May 21

49. Nuclear Disinformation, or Reassuring Policy? by Larry 32RA. Response to PacNet #32R – The Illogic of China’s M. Wortzel, Aug. 6 North Korea Policy, by R. Stapleton Roy, Jun. 7

50. Beating up on Tokyo: Good Fun, Bad Policy by Brad 33. The Evolving Maritime Security Environment in East Glosserman, Aug. 7 Asia: Implications for the US-Japan Alliance by Michael

McDevitt, May 31 51. D-Constructing Japanese Politics by Brad Glosserman,

Aug. 15 34. China. There, I Said It by J. Randy Forbes, Jun. 5

52. Why is Russia Favored by Mongolia and North Korea? by 35. US 1, China 0 by Ralph A. Cossa, Jun. 6 Jargalsaikhan Mendee, Aug. 21

35R. Response to PacNet #35R – US 1, China 0 by Tim 53. China’s Self-Absorbed Nationalism – It’s Worse than it Huxley and Ralph A. Cossa, Jun. 12 Looks by Robert Sutter, Aug. 23

36. If the World is a Stage, is Europe a Background Actor by 54. Chinese Westward FDI: Take it or Lose/Skip it? by Ting Patryk Pawlak and Eleni Ekmektsioglou, Jun. 8 Xu, Aug. 28

37. Myanmar: How Fragile the Reforms? by David Steinberg, 54A. Who’s Afraid of China Inc., and Why? by Yuen Pau Jun. 8 Woo, Aug. 29

38. Five Principles for a New Security Order in the Asia 55. Cultivating Tomorrow’s Asia Hands by Eric Sayers, Pacific by Jochen Prantl, Jun. 18 Aug. 30

39. The Logic of China’s North Korea Policy by Yun Sun, 56. Korea-Japan: Enough is Enough! by Ralph A. Cossa, Jun. 21 Sept. 4

40. Explaining “Competing” Visions: ASEAN-RCEP, TPP, 56R. Responses to PacNet #56 – Korea-Japan: Enough is FTAAP by Daniel Wu and Marc Mealy, Jun. 26 Enough! by Ralph A. Cossa, Hiroshi Hirabayashi and Young

June Chung, Sept.18 41. Moving Forward with US-Japan Cybersecurity

Cooperation by Mihoko Matsubara, Jun. 28 57. The Senkaku Dispute and the US-Japan Security Treaty by

Yoichiro Sato, Sept. 10 42. Tough Challenges, Hard Choices: Dealing with North

Korea after the Collapse of the Leap Day Agreement by Evans 58. Japan-ROK Relations: Antagonism over Alignment? by Revere, Jul. 3 Victor Cha, Sept. 11

43. Ten Things We Get From Mongolia by Stephen E. 58R. Response to PacNet #58 – Japan-ROK Relations: Noerper, Jul. 11 Antagonism over Alignment? by Aidan Foster-Carter, Sept. 13 1003 Bishop Street, Suite 1150, Honolulu, HI 96813 Tel: (808) 521-6745 Fax: (808) 599-8690 Email: [email protected] Web Page: www.pacforum.org

59. Comparative Connections Summaries Sept. 14 77. Obama’s Nuclear Agenda: The Next Four Years by Ralph A. Cossa and David Santoro, Nov. 26 60. Vietnam: Empower the Press to Fight Social Diseases by Huong Le, Sept. 20 77A. Position Vacant: Nonproliferation and Disarmament Leader, Asia by Tanya Ogilvie-White, Dec. 5 61. The US Military Pivot to Asia and Exploring a New Phase of the US-ROK Alliance by Jinho Park, Sept. 25 78. China’s New Leaders: Conservative Immobility or Streamlined Decisions? by William H. Overholt, Nov. 28 62. Japan’s Senkaku Exit Strategy by Jeffrey W. Hornung, Oct. 3 79. Because Countries Don’t Have Therapists: Trust Issues and the US, Japan, ROK Trilateral Relationship by A. Greer 62A. A problem bigger than the Senkakus by Brad Meisels, Nov. 29 Glosserman, Oct. 8 80. US-Cambodia Relations: Human Rights Is One Variable 63. Leveraging Leverage by David I. Steinberg, Oct. 10 by Vannarith Chheang, Nov. 30

64. Is America listening to its East Asian Allies? by David C. 81. What Happens when Critical Infrastructure Defenses Fail? Kang, Oct. 17 by Clete DiGiovanni and David Hamon, Dec. 3

65. Can Europe Prevent Asia’s Rise? by Barry Desker, Oct. 23 82. For Mongolia, Two Symbolic Steps in the Wrong Direction by Jeffrey Reeves, Dec. 6 66. South Korea’s Growing Role and Contributions to International Stability by Scott Snyder, Oct. 24 82R. Response to PacNet #82 – For Mongolia, Two Symbolic Steps in the Wrong Direction by Nyamosor Tuya and Jeffrey 67. Power and Leadership: Recognizing (and Appreciating) Reeves, Dec. 17 the Difference by Ralph A. Cossa and Brad Glosserman, Oct. 30 83. Aligning US Structures, Process, and Strategy: A US- ASEAN Strategic and Economic Partnership by Ernest Z. 68. Cambodia’s EAS Carrot: Incentives for a Successful Bower, Dec. 10 Summit by Gregory Poling and Alexandra Sander, Nov. 1 84. Public-private partnership programs are key in cyber 69. Next Generation Biosecurity for Asia: Keeping up with the collaboration agreements in the Asia-Pacific region Biotechnology Boom by Jaime Yassif, Nov. 5 by Ria Baldevia, Dec. 13

70. ’s Asian Century White Paper: A Goer or a Beat 85. Dealing with “North Korea 3.0”: The Same Game? Up? by Nicole Forrester, Nov. 7 by Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, Dec. 19

71. China: The Costs of Hyper Growth by Laurence Brahm, 86. Japan, Central Asia, and the US Rebalance to Asia-Pacific Nov. 8 by Jonathan Miller, Dec. 20

71A. China’s Great Green Grid by Laurence Brahm, Nov. 14 87. Seven Fingers: China’s New Leadership and North Korea Policy by Adam Cathcart, Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga and 71B. China’s Consumption Problem and the Global Economy Roger Cavazos, Dec. 26 by Rorry Daniels, Nov. 20 88. Congress and the New Pacific Strategy – Setting Policy by 72. An Aircraft Carrier’s Relevance to China’s A2/AD Acquisition by Colleen Hanabusa, Dec. 27 Strategy by Sukjoon Yoon, Nov. 13 89. 2012 PacNet Index, Dec. 28 73. East Asia Summit: the Path from Base Camp by Matthew P. Goodman, Nov. 15 89A. 2012 Issues & Insights Index, Dec. 28

74. Obama Approach to Rohingya Plight has Important Support our James A. Kelly Korean Studies Fellowship Implications on Islam-West Relations by Fuadi Pitsuwan, by sponsoring a table or purchasing a ticket to our Nov. 16 Board of Governors’ Dinner on Jan. 15, 2013, featuring former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage. 75. China: A Hidden Danger in Myanmar’s Reform Process Donations of any amount are also welcome. Visit by Josh Gordon, Nov. 19 http://csis.org/event/2013-pacific-forum-board- governors-dinner or call +1 (808) 521-6745 for more 76. How the US Can Profit from China’s Political Transition information. by Donald Gross, Nov. 21 1003 Bishop Street, Suite 1150, Honolulu, HI 96813 Tel: (808) 521-6745 Fax: (808) 599-8690 Email: [email protected] Web Page: www.pacforum.org