Africa RiskView END OF SEASON REPORT | (2016)

This Africa RiskView End of Season Report is a publication by the African Risk Capacity (ARC). The report discusses Africa RiskView’s estimates of rainfall, drought and population affected, comparing them to information from the ground and from external sources. It also provides the basis of a validation exercise of Africa RiskView, which is conducted in each country at the end of an insured season. This exercise aims at reviewing the performance of the model and ensuring that the country’s drought risk is accurately reproduced by Africa RiskView for drought monitoring and insurance coverage.

Highlights:

Rainfall: Affected Populations:  Below average performance of the 2016 rainy season, coupled  Due to the overall good performance of the season, Africa with a delayed start and early end of the seasonal rains in RiskView does not estimate that drought will have a significant most of The Gambia. impact on vulnerable populations at the end of the 2016 agri- Drought: cultural season in The Gambia.  At the end of the 2016 agricultural season, Africa RiskView ARC Risk Pool: estimates that the crop water requirements are fully satisfied  Given that no significant drought impact was modelled by Afri- in eastern and western regions of The Gambia, while some ca RiskView, no payout from ARC Ltd was triggered during the crop water deficits were recorded in central areas. 2016/17 policy year.  Despite the below average performance of the rainy season, compared to the 5-year median, the WRSI is normal to above normal throughout the country.

Rainfall of the country experienced a short dry-spell in early August, with The rainy season in The Gambia lasts from mid-June to mid- little to no rains received in the central and western parts of the November. During the 2016 season, cumulative rainfall totals country. In these areas, the season also ended earlier than normal varied across the different regions. In eastern Gambia (Upper in October 2016. Conversely, some parts of eastern Gambia rec- River Region), around 600 mm of cumulative rainfall were record- orded slightly above normal rainfall towards the end of the season ed, while most of Central River Region in central Gambia only in October. received between 400 and 550 mm. In the western parts of the Compared to rainfall measured by stations on the ground, it country, rainfall varied between 500 and 600 mm in North Bank appears that the RFE2 satellite estimates capture the overall and Lower River regions, while the far south-west (West Coast trends well. Cumulative rainfall totals are slightly under-estimated Region) received over 700 mm of rain. Compared to the 2001-15 by the satellite datasets, which can however be adjusted for in the average, rainfall in most of The Gambia was 10-30% below nor- customisation of Africa RiskView. mal, with the exception of the far south-west and the eastern parts of the country (Upper River Region), where only minor Drought rainfall deficits (5-10% below normal) were recorded. In terms of The in-country Technical Working Group (TWG) chose to use cumulative rainfall deficits, the most severe deficits at district groundnut as reference crop in Africa RiskView, to monitor the level were experienced in Lower (150 mm). Similar deficits progress of the agricultural season in The Gambia. Based on the (100-140 mm) were recorded in other districts in the central parts country-specific customisation, the season starts in mid-June (11- of The Gambia. 20 June) and ends in mid-November (11-20 November). The planting window, during which Africa RiskView assumes farmers Regarding the spatial and temporal distributions of the 2016 rains, usually start planting their crops, lasts from mid-June to the end of it appears that rainfall during the first month of the season was July. below average, particularly in central and eastern Gambia. Most

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Cumulative rainfall (in mm), Cumulative rainfall in % of 2001-15 average, The Gambia, 11 Jun-20 Nov 2016 (RFE2) The Gambia, 11 Jun-20 Nov 2016 (RFE2)

End-of-season WRSI, The Gambia, 2016 agricultural season End-of-season WRSI compared to benchmark (5-year median), The Gambia, 2016 agricultural season

At the end of the planting window (31 July), planting conditions in central Gambia, where the crop water require- were reached throughout the country. The threshold was reached ments were not fully satisfied, mainly due to water deficits during between late June and early July in the western and eastern parts the crop ripening phase. In the eastern parts of the country, of the country, and from mid to end of-July in the central parts of where the rainy season also experienced an erratic start but then The Gambia. This corresponds to the normal planting dekad in the recovered, the WRSI is higher than the country average. Despite east and most of western Gambia, but marks a delay of up to two little to no rainfall towards the end of the season, good rains in dekads compared to normal in the central parts of the country. preceding months resulted in sufficient soil moisture to allow for a normal crop development. However, the higher than normal Despite the overall slightly below normal performance of the 2016 rainfall at the end of the season likely negatively affected the rainy season, Africa RiskView estimates that overall, the water quality and quantity of groundnut production, which is not direct- requirements of the reference crop (groundnut) were satisfied in ly expressed in the WRSI. most parts of the country. In areas where below average rainfall was received (mostly in the central parts of the country), this Compared to the benchmark selected by the TWG to model nor- resulted in lower WRSI values compared to other parts of the mal conditions (median of the previous 5 years), it appears that country. The most affected areas are in Central River North and most of the country experienced better than normal conditions.

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Population affected estimates, 2001-16, Dekadal rainfall in mm compared to 2001 Dekadal rainfall in mm compared to 2001 The Gambia -15 average (blue line), jun-nov 16, -15 average (blue line), jun-nov 16, Greater Area, The Gambia Lower Nuimi, The Gambia

However, some parts of central and western Gambia experienced ARC Risk Pool normal to slightly below normal conditions. Given that Africa RiskView estimates that drought did not have a Regarding the situation on the ground, initial information from significant impact on vulnerable populations in The Gambia in field visits suggested poor crop production totals during the 2016 2016, and that the trigger set by the TWG was not reached, the agricultural season, comparable to 2014, which was attributed to country did not receive a payout from ARC Ltd at the end of the the overall poor performance of the rains, as well as above normal 2016 agricultural seasons. The Gambia has participated in the ARC rainfall in October in parts of eastern Gambia, which might have Risk Pool since the 2015/16 season. affected groundnut production (and which would not have been expressed directly in the WRSI). While production and surface cultivated figures in total for groundnut are amongst the lowest for the 2001-16 period, it appears that yields performed better. It is not clear what the impact of other factors such as floods, pests and aflatoxins had on crop production in 2016. Affected Populations Based on the customisation of Africa RiskView selected by the TWG for the 2016/17 ARC Risk Pool, the total number of people vulnerable to drought in The Gambia is just over 300,000,. At the end of the 2016 agricultural season, the model estimates that no people are affected, given the overall normal to above normal performance of the WRSI throughout the country. The modelled historical average number of people affected by drought in The Gambia is around 90,000 people. Africa RiskView’s in-season estimates for 2016 initially pointed towards a potentially higher than average number of people affected, due to the delayed start of the rains. However, with improving rainfall conditions from July onwards, the in-season estimates gradually decreased over the course of the season. At the time of writing, no information on food insecure and drought affected populations was available.

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Dekadal rainfall in mm compared to 2001 Dekadal rainfall in mm compared to 2001 Dekadal rainfall in mm compared to 2001 -15 average (blue line), jun-nov 16, -15 average (blue line), jun-nov 16, -15 average (blue line), jun-nov 16, Fonis, The Gambia North Bank West, The Gambia Baddibu, The Gambia

Dekadal rainfall in mm compared to 2001 Dekadal rainfall in mm compared to 2001 Dekadal rainfall in mm compared to 2001 -15 average (blue line), jun-nov 16, -15 average (blue line), jun-nov 16, -15 average (blue line), jun-nov 16, Kiang, The Gambia , The Gambia Jarra, The Gambia

Dekadal rainfall in mm compared to 2001 Dekadal rainfall in mm compared to 2001 Dekadal rainfall in mm compared to 2001 -15 average (blue line), jun-nov 16, -15 average (blue line), jun-nov 16, -15 average (blue line), jun-nov 16, , The Gambia Central River North, The Gambia Niamina, The Gambia

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Dekadal rainfall in mm compared to 2001 Dekadal rainfall in mm compared to 2001 Dekadal rainfall in mm compared to 2001 -15 average (blue line), jun-nov 16, -15 average (blue line), jun-nov 16, -15 average (blue line), jun-nov 16, Janjanbureh, The Gambia Upper River North, The Gambia , The Gambia

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About ARC: The African Risk Capacity (ARC) is a special- The Africa RiskView software is the tech- The ARC Insurance Company Limited is the ised agency of the African Union designed nical engine of ARC. It uses satellite-based financial affiliate of the ARC Agency, which to improve the capacity of AU Member rainfall information to estimate the costs of pools risk across the continent through issu- States to manage natural disaster risk, responding to a drought, which triggers a ing insurance policies to participating coun- adapt to climate change and protect food corresponding insurance payout. tries. insecure populations.

Note on Africa RiskView’s Methodology:

Rainfall: Africa RiskView uses Drought: Africa RiskView uses Affected Populations: Based on Response Costs: In a fourth various satellite rainfall da- the Water Requirements Satis- the WRSI calculations, Africa and final step, Africa RiskView tasets to track the progression faction Index (WRSI) as an indi- RiskView estimates the number converts the numbers of affect- of rainy seasons in Africa. Coun- cator for drought. The WRSI is of people potentially affected ed people into response costs. tries intending to participate in an index developed by the Food by drought for each country For countries participating in the ARC Risk Pool are required and Agriculture Organisation of participating in the insurance the insurance pool these na- to customise the rainfall com- the United Nations (FAO), pool. As part of the in-country tional response costs are the ponent by selecting the dataset which, based on satellite rain- customisation process, vulnera- underlying basis of the insur- which corresponds the best to fall estimates, calculates wheth- bility profiles are developed at ance policies. Payouts will be the actual rainfall measured on er a particular crop is getting the sub-national level for each triggered from the ARC Insur- the ground. the amount of water it needs at country, which define the po- ance Company Limited to coun- different stages of its develop- tential impact of a drought on tries where the estimated re- ment. To maximise the accura- the population living in a spe- sponse cost at the end of the cy of Africa RiskView, countries cific area. season exceeds a pre-defined intending to take out insurance threshold specified in the insur- customise the software’s pa- ance contracts. rameters to reflect the realities on the ground.

Disclaimer: The data and information contained in this report have been developed for the purposes of, and using the methodology of, Afri ca RiskView and the African Risk Capacity Group. The data in this report is provided to the public for information purposes only, and neither the ARC Agen- cy, its affiliates nor each of their respective officers, directors, employees and agents make any representation or warranty regarding the fitness of the data and information for any particular purpose. In no event shall the ARC Agency, its affiliates nor each of their respective officers, directors, employees and agents be held liable with respect to any subject matter presented here. Payouts under insurance policies issued by ARC Insurance Company Limited are calculated using a stand-alone version of Africa RiskView, the results of which can differ from those presented here.

For more information visit our website: www.africanriskcapacity.org