2 SEPTEMBER-2020

HBULLETII GHL I GHT OF THE FORE I G N P O L I CY OF REPUBLNI C OF AZERBA I JAN

Table of contents

I. ’s attack on 2

II. Pashinyan’s systematic provocations preceding the attack 2

III. Organized disinformation campaign against Azerbaijan 4

IV. International situation around the conflict 5

V. What does Azerbaijan want? 7

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I. Armenia’s attack on Azerbaijan frontlines. On the same day, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan noted that On September 27, the Armenian armed forces “Armenia's military provocation was pre- started intensively shelling the positions of the planned. They have been preparing for this Republic of Azerbaijan and civilian areas along provocation for a long time, and the the entire frontline using mortars, larger- intelligence we have shows that Armenia caliber weapons and artillery mounts of intends to start a new war against us.” As a different calibers. At the same time, the result of successful counter-offensive Armenian armed forces started systematically operations, Azerbaijan’s Army has liberated shelling densely populated areas, Madagiz, Talish village of Terter district, the infrastructure facilities, residential buildings, city of , the town of Hadrut, Mehdili, hospitals, and schools, violating the Chaxirli, Ashagi Maralyan, Sheybe, Guyjag international humanitarian law, including the Karkhulu, Shukurbeyli, Cherekan, , Geneva Convention of 1949. Just in the first , Mahmudlu, Jafarabad, Yuxari two days, more than 27 people was injured, Maralyan, Dejal, Shikhali Agali, Sarijali and many civilians including one entire family of Mezre villages of , Chayli, five people, and two teenagers of 13 and 14 Yukhari Guzlek, Gorazilli, Gishlag, Garajali, years old were killed. In compliance with Efendiler, Suleymanli and Sur villages. To date, international law invoking the right of UN as a result of Armenia’s deliberate attacks on member states to self-defense under Article 51 civilian population, a total of 41 civilians were of the UN Charter and in order to suppress killed and more than 200 others were large-scale provocations and ensure the safety wounded. of the civilian population living along the frontlines, the army units of Azerbaijan started taking retaliatory measures against the enemy. II. Pashinyan’s systematic A successful counter-offensive launched by the provocations preceding the attack Armed Forces of the Republic of Azerbaijan led to the liberation of a number of occupied Since coming to power, Armenian Prime villages, strategic heights and advantageous Minister has actively derailed positions. According to the Ministry of Defence the negotiation process. As Dr Esmira Jafarova, of the Republic of Azerbaijan, “as a result of a board member at the Center of Analysis of the military operation in the -Jabrayil International Relations, noted “the direction, Garakhanbeyli, Gervend, kend provocations on the frontline were also Horadiz, Yukhari Abdurrahmanli, Boyuk accompanied by political provocations, Marjanli and Nuzgar villages of Fizuli region, nationalistic statements and cultural which have been under enemy occupation for revanchism that the current leadership of many years, were liberated. Enemy posts Armenia has opted for as its foreign policy located in the direction of Aghdara region and course vis-a-vis Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.” on the heights of Murov Mount range were In March 2019, Pashinyan tried to change the destroyed and a number of important high negotiation format by trying to introduce the grounds were taken under control.” At the of Nagorno- into the same time, a large number of military process. The move was categorically rejected personnel and military equipment of the by Azerbaijan and the Minsk Group Co-Chairs occupational forces were destroyed near the as being against the basis of the peace talks set 3

out in March 1992. In August 2019, during his could consolidate “the illegal occupation of visit to occupied territories of Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh and of its surrounding Pashinyan declared that “Nagorno-Karabakh is districts.” Armenia and period” coupled with the revival In July, the Armenian military units attacked of a revanchist (unification) ideology Azerbaijan at the direct border between the in regard to the Nagorno-Karabakh region of two countries, a couple of hundred kilometers Azerbaijan. As Dr Farid Shafiyev, Chairman of away from the actual conflict zone around the the Center of Analysis of International occupied Nagorno-Karabakh region. The July Relations, noted at the time, it was “a attack became the single deadliest episode declaration of the annexation of the territory since the Four-Day War of April 2016. It was of a neighboring country in violation of four also accompanied with systematic attacks on resolutions of the UN Security Council living abroad. On July 21, (822,853, 874, and 884). Moreover, it was a approximately 50 members of the Azerbaijani return of the 1988 irredentist claim that, for so community in the US were assaulted by many years, the Armenian nationalists had Armenian extremists during the rally in front of tried to avoid.” In May 2020, Pashinyan Azerbaijan’s Consulate General in Los Angeles. participated in the “oath taking ceremony” for On July 22, a string of attacks on Azerbaijanis the new head of the occupational puppet took place in Brussels where the members of regime in Nagorno-Karabakh. Rather the Azerbaijani community, during the provocatively, the Armenian side for the first peaceful protests, were attacked by Armenian time decided to hold the ceremony in extremists using stones, explosives and other – the city that is widely recognized as the weapons. These gruesome attacks left 6 cradle of Azerbaijani music and culture. In June members of the Azerbaijani community, 2020, the Armenian government went even including a journalist, wounded and in need of further, announcing the construction of a new medical attention. Armed Armenian highway connecting Armenia with Azerbaijan’s extremists also attacked and wounded two occupied Nagorno-Karabakh region. It was Azerbaijanis living in Canada. such a provocative move that the members of the European Parliament – the Chair of the Following a catastrophic explosion in Beirut on Delegation to the EU-Armenia, the EU- August 4, the Armenian government has Azerbaijan and the EU-Georgia Parliamentary sought to exploit a worsening political and Committees Marina Kaljurand, the European economic situation in Lebanon as a pretext for Parliament’s Standing Rapporteur on Armenia illegally settling ethnic Armenians from Traian Băsescu and the European Parliament’s Lebanon in the occupied territories of Standing Rapporteur on Azerbaijan Željana Azerbaijan. In August, Azerbaijan captured Zovko – had to issue a joint statement and note First Lieutenant Gurgen Alberyan, the that “the decision to build this highway has commander of the sabotage-reconnaissance been taken without the consent of the group of the Armenian forces, who was sent to competent authorities of Azerbaijan – in carry out terrorist activities in Azerbaijan. With violation of international law.” Emphasizing each new provocation by Armenia, the that they deplore this project since it does not situation around the conflict was becoming “help to create conditions conducive to trust, even more unsustainable, risking spiraling out peace and reconciliation,” they also pointed of control and getting into a full-blown war. out that the decision to build a new highway

Mirza İbrahimov 8, , AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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Another major provocation by Armenia was community, define the Karabakh problem as a Pashinyan’s declaration that Azerbaijan should question of territorial expansion”. negotiate with the so-called “Nagorno- Karabakh authorities”. As President Ilham Aliyev pointed out, “not only we but also III. Organized disinformation Minsk-Group rejected it. Because it changes campaign against Azerbaijan completely the format of negotiations, which From the first day of the flare-up, Azerbaijan was elaborated for more than twenty years. has faced organized disinformation and And negotiations are taking place between coordinated social-media manipulation Armenia and Azerbaijan. So, he puts campaigns. Armenia has increasingly precondition to us and we rejected it. And the leveraged social media platforms to spread reason why he did it, was again he wanted propaganda and fake news during the critical negotiations to stop and keep the status quo unchanged.” moments. The Armenian side tried to present the conflict as a religious war between As Vasif Huseynov, a senior adviser at the Christianity and Islam, which is dangerous in Center of Analysis of International Relations, itself because it could internationalize the noted, “although the Prime Minister Nikol issue by provoking an inter-religious conflict Pashinyan of Armenia came to power in 2018 across the globe. Pashinyan declared that the with an agenda promising peaceful resolution of the conflict, soon he resorted to dangerous frontline in Nagorno-Karabakh has become “a populism making territorial claims not only to clash of civilizations” and “battle of survival” Azerbaijan but even to , its western for “the first Christian nation”, which neighbour.” In August 2020, Pashinyan called effectively is a dog whistle to garner support Armenians not to forget the Treaty of Sevres from racists, white supremacists and various declaring that “although the Treaty of Sevres far-right parties and groups in the West. This was never implemented, it continues to be a kind of apocalyptic religious rhetoric has also historical fact, which reflects our long journey exposed the bigoted mindset and genocidal to restore our independent statehood. We are intentions of the Armenian government. It is bound by duty to remember it, realize its not surprising that this rhetoric plays well with importance and follow its message.” This was far-right populists like Charlie Weimers, a a clear claim to the eastern parts of modern Swedish politician from the far-right Sweden Turkey. Pashinyan’s increasingly hostile and Democrats and Member of the European provocative rhetoric raised concerns even in Parliament, who consistently attacked Armenia itself. A few weeks before the Azerbaijan. According to Dr Farid Shafiyev, breakout of hostilities, Jirair Libaridian, a senior adviser to the former President of “when Armenian ultranationalists launched Armenia, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, noted that “the their unification campaign in February 1988 in statements by the President and Prime an already crumbling Soviet Union, Armenia’s Minister of Armenia [concerning the Treaty of strong diaspora in the West supported it Sevres] were equivalent to a declaration of at through a well-organized network of least diplomatic war against Turkey… This was policymakers, journalists, and scholars. This possibly the last step that will, in the eyes of ethnic conflict was portrayed as a religious our opponents and the international one, even though Armenia manages to enjoy

Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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as good relations with as Azerbaijan does Moreover, through systematic disinformation with Israel. For liberals, it was presented as a campaigns about Turkey’s military self-determination struggle, while the end goal involvement in the conflict Armenia is trying to of the ultranationalist campaign was transform the conflict into a regional one, thus Armenia’s territorial expansion and the securing external support for itself. In his establishment of “Great Armenia.” In the interview with Al Jazeera, President Ilham evolving geopolitical environment of the post- Aliyev pointed out that “one of the Armenian Cold war era, Armenians exploited fake news which now is not any longer in the Islamophobia and Turkophobia to advance media, was that Turkish F-16 shot down their cause.” Armenia’s SU-25. This is fake news.” As As it was the case with the now debunked President Ilham Aliyev pointed out, "the aim of stories of ISIS terrorists fighting for Azerbaijan Armenia is to insult the Azerbaijani army, in the Four-Day War of April 2016, Armenia which fulfills its duty with honor, by making again started spreading disinformation about such false reports and to create the impression foreign mercenaries from Syria and Libya that the conflicts have increased and third fighting for Azerbaijan on the frontlines. As countries are getting involved in the issue." Vasif Huseynov noted, “this “information” was Turkey has strongly condemned Armenia and propagated without giving a single proof or at pledged full support with all its means to best by citing unspecified people or their Azerbaijan. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan relatives. Even President Emmanuel Macron wrote on Twitter that “launching a new attack who is the president of Minsk Group Co- against Azerbaijan, Armenia has once again Chairing state France that is legally required to shown that it constitutes the biggest threat be neutral in the Armenia – Azerbaijan conflict against peace and comfort in the region. The echoed this without providing evidence. It is in Turkish people stand with their Azeri brothers fact no coincidence, as similar stories about with all its means as it has always been.” the cooperation between Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan also demanded for Turkey to be terrorist groups in the Middle East have been included in the peace process. At the same each time propagated when the conflict time, Armenia’s claim that Ankara is militarily escalated.” As Dr Farid Shafiyev, the Chairman involved in the conflict does not hold water. of the Center of Analysis of International President Ilham Aliyev repeatedly emphasized Relations, put it, Azerbaijan “is a country with that Turkey is not a party to the conflict with strong secular traditions that has prosecuted Armenia and is only providing moral support to Islamic radicals to the full extent of the law, Azerbaijan. imprisoned ISIS fighters, supported US operations in and Iraq, and IV. International situation around the assisted Western intelligence agencies in conflict eradicating terrorism. Frankly, today’s Azerbaijan is a Muslim country as much as the “The permissive international regime” has allowed Armenia to occupy Azerbaijan’s Netherlands is a Christian one.” territories without any repercussions. One of the main reason why the conflict has not been

Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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resolved so far, as President Ilham Aliyev resolutions for about three decades and the pointed out, “is that lack of insistence from the militaristic-revanchist stance rigorously side of the mediators and lack of pressure on pursued and demonstrated by incumbent Armenia to start demanding resolutions of the Armenian leadership leaves no hopes for United Nations Security Council.” The OSCE optimism that Armenia might commit to Minsk Group that was a main responsible meaningful peace negotiations from now on.” international body for mediation and At the same time, as Dr Farid Shafiyev pointed resolution of the conflict and international out, “A cohort of Western scholars, experts, community as a whole did not pay adequate and journalists writing about the conflict solely attention to deliberate obstruction and focused on geopolitics and history but derailing of the peace and negotiation process. remained largely silent on the most important As Fuad Chiragov, Head of Department at element—namely international law—because Center of Analysis of International Relations, it did not fit the pro-Armenian narrative.” put it, “they have not just only done anything Azerbaijan has a right to territorial integrity. to prevent further rise of escalation but also There can be no revision of a state’s borders shamefully neglected for 30 years the without either its consent or its initiation. This occupation and the violation of basic human provision is fundamental because it prevents rights of more than million IDPs. Instead, their aggression from other states. The rules and approach and policies towards the conflict, in norms of the UN and other international fact, can easily be interpreted as institutions clearly state that nonviolent ways “appeasement of the aggressor” that are the only means acceptable for revising the committed war crimes and crimes against global system. Occupation cannot be awarded humanity, including the massacre in in with admission into the UN. However, when it 1992. The OSCE Minsk Group remained blind comes to the occupation of Azerbaijan’s to military build-up of Armenia in the occupied territories all these principles have been territories of Azerbaijan, illegal change of conveniently ignored. During his address at the demography through illegal settlement policy, 75th session of the UN General Assembly, alteration of the centuries-old toponyms, President Ilham Aliyev called for the destruction of the cultural heritage in the preparation of the updated timetable for occupied lands. They have not attempted to do withdrawal of from anything to make Armenia comply with the UN the occupied lands of Azerbaijan. President Security Council resolutions 822, 853, 874 and Ilham Aliyev also pointed out that “the UN 884 adopted in 1993, that demand from Security Council resolutions are not time- Armenia to withdraw immediately and specific. These resolutions are valid until they unconditionally its armed forces from the are implemented. Misinterpretation of UN occupied territories of Azerbaijan.” As Dr Security Council resolutions is unacceptable”. Esmira Jafarova has noted, “despite the occupation of its territories for over three As Dr Esmira Jafarova put it, “what we are decades Azerbaijan remained committed to witnessing today on the frontline is a direct peace process and finding a negotiated consequence of misinterpretation and non- solution based on the norms and principles of implementation of the above resolutions. international law, and the relevant resolutions Instead of abiding by the legally binding of the UN Security Council (822, 853, 874, 884). resolutions of the UN Security Council and Armenia has been openly flouting those heeding to the numerous calls and relevant

Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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documents of the international community, negotiations would have been continued if not Armenia’s leaders, both previous and for [Pashinyan’s] distractive approach. And unfortunately, also the incumbent, chose to after [‘Karabakh is Armenia’] statement I had a exploit sensitivities through heightened meeting with Armenian Prime Minister but nationalism, militarism, populism, and they were absolutely meaningless. They were revanchism. This road unfortunately leads to formal. He was telling me that they are not an impasse, increased instability, going to give territories back. And then, what warmongering and deadly military hostilities, to talk about? If they don’t want to do that, if the kind of which we have already seen in July they go against elaborated principles by the and also at present.” Minsk-Group, which they elaborated for years and means that he destroys negotiations. Negotiations cannot be held unilaterally. We V. What does Azerbaijan want? need to have a partner but in Armenia so far The main reason why the peace process has we don’t have a partner for negotiations.” not yielded any tangible results so far is President Ilham Aliyev also added that “we because Armenia did not want to change the need to do everything that this conflict stops status quo and sought to keep the occupied as soon as possible, the resolution is found as territories under its control forever. However, soon as possible. We are not in the position to Azerbaijan through successful military listen to statements as ‘stop it and we will counter-offensive operations has changed the work, we will negotiate, we will help’. We status quo. The previous status quo based on heard it many times, we don’t have time to the fact of the Armenian occupation does not wait another 30 years. The conflict must be exist anymore. As President Ilham Aliyev has resolved now. Those who want to help noted, “"there is no such thing as status-quo. Armenia, their so-called close partners, let It is over.” Azerbaijan’s main condition is for them help by telling them ‘leave the Armenia to comply with the international law territories, demonstrate your will, stop firing’, and start withdrawal from the occupied tell that ‘today or tomorrow only one week I territories. In his interview with Al Jazeera, will leave Aghdam, next time, next week I will President Ilham Aliyev emphasized that “we leave Fuzuli, next week I will leave ’ want to find a peaceful solution, therefore we etc. and we will stop. So, this is a very fair waited for so many years and probably position, this is a position aimed at peace not at war.”

Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]