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Potluck 2020 Analysis

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Potluck 2020 Analysis Potluck Insurgency Analysis of the 2020 Election in Iowa Introduction to Potluck Insurgency and Overview of Debrief Project Potluck Insurgency is a grassroots organization in Iowa City that began meeting in January 2017, shortly after the presidential inauguration. Our mission has been to return our country to the democratic ideals we hold dear by advocating for Democratic policies at the local, state, and national level and by helping to elect local, state, and national Democratic candidates. Since January 2017 we have met almost monthly to hear from a variety of guest speakers and presidential candidates, to do fundraising for Democratic candidates, and to advocate for the values of the Democratic Party. In November 2020, we celebrated Democrats’ success at the national level. However, we were disappointed by former President Trump’s 8-point victory in Iowa, by our loss of two Congressional seats, and by our inability to gain any seats in the Iowa House or Senate. In fact, instead of achieving an expected gain of four seats in the Iowa House, we lost six seats. In the Iowa Senate, 25 seats were up for election, and neither party gained any seats. We wanted to understand what happened in Iowa in 2020 and figure out how Democrats can win in 2022. In a broader context, we’re committed to articulating what Iowa Democrats need to do to rebuild the Democratic Party after several years of losing ground. This document reports what we learned from our conversations and offers our recommendations so we can achieve greater success in Iowa. If we have misunderstood relationships between official entities in this report, we acknowledge them, but such misunderstandings emphasize the need for a less opaque and complicated political infrastructure. Starting in early December 2020, four members of our Steering Committee interviewed local grassroots groups, Iowa House and Senate candidates, a Congressional candidate, former chairs of the Iowa Democratic Party, and others. The Potluck debrief team consisted of Janice Weiner, Sarah Prineas, Emily Silliman and Rosanne Cook. Each of our interviews, using questions formulated in advance, lasted about an hour and we had many open, honest, and very enjoyable conversations with our interviewees. We wish to preface this report by thanking and acknowledging the many people who were so generous with their time and insights. Local Grassroots Groups Temple Hiatt, whose election volunteer work in Johnson County was done primarily as a member of gun safety group Moms Demand Action. Sharon Lake and Tara Shochet, part of the leadership team of the Eastside Democrats, a highly organized voter contact and turnout organization based in Iowa City. Sarah Prineas and Kiran Patel, part of the leadership team of the Northside Democrats, a group based in the north side of Iowa City with a similar mission to that of Eastside Dems. Cindy Doyle and Jodie Theobald, Westside Democrats, based on the west side of Iowa City; shares a mission with Eastside and Northside Dems. Christine Lewers and Tricia Windschitl, leaders of Flip It Iowa, based in Iowa City, which identified Iowa House candidates in flippable districts in 2018 and 2020, and worked with local teams to organize fundraisers for those candidates. Jocelyn Roof, leader of Hawk the Vote, a project of the Undergraduate Student Government at the University of Iowa with the goal of registering students to vote and turning them out to vote. Candidates for the Iowa House Kelcey Brackett, HD 91, which includes the city of Muscatine and the surrounding rural area. Lonny Pulkrabek, HD 73, which includes some Johnson County precincts, all of Cedar County and some of Muscatine County. Paul Deaton, Democratic activist in the Solon area. Andrea Phillips, HD 37, a mostly suburban district with two rural precincts in the Ankeny area north of Des Moines. Marie Gleason, HD 94, which includes Bettendorf and some smaller surrounding communities and two Davenport precincts. Karin Derry, HD 39, which includes Johnston, Grimes, some precincts in the northwest corner of the Des Moines Metro area and one precinct in Urbandale. Ruby Bodeker, HD 75, a rural district which includes the townships of Marengo, Benton, Fairfax, Palo, and Vinton. Kayla Koether, HD 55, a rural district that includes large sections of Winneshiek and Fayette Counties plus a sliver of Clayton County. Eric Gjerde, HD 67, which includes northwest Cedar Rapids, West Marion, most of Hiawatha and Robins. Mary Mascher, HD 86; Dave Jacoby, HD 74; Christina Bohannan HD 85, all in Iowa City/Coralville. Candidates for the Iowa Senate Joe Bolkcom, SD 43 State Senator in Johnson County. Mary Stewart, SD 41, which includes four counties in southeast Iowa. Mary ran in the special election held January 26, 2021 for the seat vacated by Marianette Miller-Meeks. Kevin Kinney, State Senator in SD 39, a mostly rural district that includes some precincts in Johnson, Keokuk and Washington counties. Chris Brase, SD 46, which includes the city of Muscatine and the surrounding rural area. Amber Gustafson, candidate for SD 19 in 2018. She remains an activist through Ankeny Area Democrats and other organizations, including the OPE! PAC. Congressional Candidate J.D. Scholten, a candidate for Congress in Iowa’s fourth district in 2018 and 2020. Former Chairs of the Iowa Democratic Party Mark Smith, chair of the IDP from February 2020 until the end of 2020. Mark has served the Democratic Party in Iowa for many years, including 20 years as a state representative. Troy Price, chair of the Iowa Democratic Party from July 2017 until February 2020. Troy has served the Iowa Democratic Party in a variety of roles. Johnson County Board of Supervisors Rod Sullivan and Lisa Green-Douglass, both incumbent candidates for the Johnson County Board of Supervisors in 2020. Representatives of Cedar County Democrats Jim Glasson, member of the Cedar County Democrats Central Committee and leader of the West Branch Democrats, and Jodi Clemens, Democratic activist, who ran for the Iowa House in HD 73 in 2018. At the time of our interview she was a candidate for Chair of the IDP. Section 1. Messaging Articulating Our Message and Combatting Conservative Right-Wing Messages In our interviews we heard frequently about how right-wing media messaging is negatively branding Democrats. These messages are delivered non-stop in outlets such as Fox News and conservative radio talk shows, and they frequently label Democrats as “socialists,” and claim we want to “defund the police,” “grab guns,” and “kill babies.” Democrats do not have similar year-round outlets, and our messaging tends to be in high gear only during election cycles. Because conservative voters are subject to a constant barrage of negative right-wing messaging, many interviewees felt it was challenging to combat attitudes that have developed over time with messaging that is heard only during a campaign. Another dimension of negative messaging is the fear and intimidation it imposes on Democratic voters, particularly in rural areas and small towns. Interviewees said that many people are afraid to identify themselves as Democrats. Voters are sometimes reluctant to display yard signs for Democrats because they fear repercussions in their community. As a result, grassroots organizing and maintaining active Democratic central committees are a challenge in these areas. Our interviewees discussed whether Iowa House and Senate candidates should go negative against their Republican opponents, or respond to their opponents’ negative attacks. Democratic candidates were frequently attacked in ads by their Republican opponents with exaggerated claims and lies, so candidates faced the dilemma of what to do about those negative ads. Several Iowa House and Senate candidates said they felt some pressure from the Truman Fund or Senate Majority Fund to respond by going negative against their opponents. Most resisted this pressure; some who acquiesced said they later regretted doing so and felt it hurt them. Even so, the question remains of how best to counteract negative messages frequently used to demonize Democrats in general and Democratic candidates in particular. Interviewees also talked about the relative lack of simplicity and clarity in Democrats’ messaging. One interviewee theorized that Democrats want to get things right and so we usually try to describe the complexities and nuances of a problem or issue. However, this style of explaining issues at length may be a weakness if we want to win races, particularly when Republicans use short, pithy messages—slogans— to label Democrats. Some of the Iowa House and Senate candidates we spoke with felt that Democrats’ messaging is too top- down, originating from the IDP/Truman Fund/Senate Majority Fund/coordinated campaign. We assume this messaging is developed in coordination with consultants who engage in polling and work with focus groups. The process is opaque, however, and seems to lead to inauthentic, ineffective messaging. Several candidates spoke about the rigidity of Democrats’ messaging and felt that candidates were not trusted to know their districts and to articulate messaging on issues that mattered in their districts. Candidates said they thought broad messaging and cookie-cutter ads were not effective, and that campaign messages needed to be tailored in order to be specifically relevant to what matters to voters in different areas in the state. For example, one candidate was told to message on education funding, which in their rural, aging district was parsed by voters as “Democrats want to raise my property taxes.” Candidates’ messaging should be personal – candidates should talk about how their own experiences are relevant to the issues. Addressing issues through the lens of personal experience can help voters begin to understand that there are legitimate opposing viewpoints to what they’re hearing from right-wing media. As one interviewee described it, we need to create a narrative about what is happening and help people find themselves in that narrative by using authentic voices from different groups.
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