Resilience Science for a Resilience Society in Seismogenic and Tsunamigenic Countries

Kaneda, Y.

Paper: Resilience Science for a Resilience Society in Seismogenic and Tsunamigenic Countries

Yoshiyuki Kaneda†

Institute of Education, Research and Regional Cooperation for Crisis Management Shikoku (IECMS), Kagawa University 1-1 Saiwai-cho, Takamatsu 760-8521, Japan †Corresponding author, E-mail: [email protected] [Received January 12, 2017; accepted April 6, 2017]

The world falls victim to many natural disasters, in- cluding disasters from tsunamis, earthquakes, vol- canic eruptions, tornados, hurricanes, floods, land- slides, and droughts. Above all, attention has been drawn to destructive tsunamis and earthquakes, such as the 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami, the 2010 Chile earthquake, and the 2011 East Japan earthquake and tsunami. My personal experience with disasters, tsunamis, and earthquakes has taught me that they can cause severe damage to buildings, the environment, and people in societies in coastal areas (Fig. 1). Since the East Japan earthquake and tsunami in 2011, restoration and revival from the extensive damage caused by the natural disasters has not progressed rapidly in the coastal areas of East Japan. Fig. 1. Damage from 2011 East Japan earthquake. Photo by There are many reasons for this, such as the lead times Associate Professor Sakamoto of Nagoya University. for restoration and recovery, reconstruction budgets, and the time spent generating consensus among the national government, local governments, and people living in the coastal areas on the restoration plans. ern Canada and northwestern United States, the 1707 Furthermore, mental and economic restoration for Hoei earthquake and tsunami in southwest Japan, the each individual affected by the disaster in coastal ar- 1755 Lisbon earthquake and tsunami in Portugal, the eas and others is very far from returning to the normal 1960 Chile earthquake, the 1964 Alaska earthquake and state – the one before the disaster. tsunami, the 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami, and Therefore, advanced measures for disaster mitigation, the 2011 East Japan earthquake and tsunami (Table 1). restoration, and revival in coastal areas are indispens- In Japan, there have been many earthquakes and tsunamis able in advance of the next destructive earthquake and that have caused serious damage. tsunami. Based on the lessons of the 2011 East Japan disasters, In this paper, I will first present examples of tsunami we will discuss tsunami disasters and recovery efforts. and earthquake damage in Japan and the rest of the Table 2 shows an example of a historical tsunami in world, and countermeasures, resilience science, and Japan. resilience society. These tsunami earthquakes caused serious damage over a wide area, especially along the coast. Keywords: tsunami, earthquake, resilience science, The 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami killed restoration, Continuity Program (CP) 200,000 people. Fig. 2 shows tsunami damage to a coastal city in Indonesia. About 20,000 people died or went miss- ing in the 2011 East Japan earthquake and tsunami. Fig. 3 1. Tsunami and Earthquake Damage Around shows the damage to coastal cities and the bank of the the World Kitakami River in eastern Japan. Historical earthquakes and tsunamis have shown that the restoration of severely A considerable amount of tsunami damage has been damaged areas with large numbers of victims takes a long recorded around the world throughout history. There are time. This is because the restoration of cities and commu- records of the 1575 Valdivia earthquake and tsunami in nities in coastal areas and other places where large num- Chile, the 1700 Cascade earthquake and tsunami in west- bers of people are impacted by large tsunamis must first

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Table 1. Historical destructive earthquakes and tsunamis. Table 2. Historical tsunamis in Japan. Year Earthquake/Tsunami Area M Year: Earthquake/Tsunami M Area 1498: Meio Earthquake Japan M8.2–8.4 684 Tennmu M<8.25 Nankai Trough 1556: Shaanxi China M8.0 Earthquake/Tsunami province earthquake 869 Jyogan M8.5 East Japan 1693: Catania Earthquake Italy M7.4 Earthquake/Tsunami 1700: Cascadia US/Canada M9.0 887 Ninna M8-8.5 Nankai Trough Earthquake/Tsunami Earthquake/Tsunami 1703: Genroku Earthquake Japan M7.9–8.2 1498 Meio M8.2-8.4 Nankai Trough 1707: Hoei Earthquake Japan M8.6 Earthquake/Tsunami 1716: Peru Earthquake Peru M8.8 1596 Keicho Bungo M7.0 Nankai Trough 1739: Ninghsia Earthquake China M8.0 Earthquake 1746: Peru Earthquake Peru M8.6 1611 Keicho Sanriku M8.1 East Japan 1755: Lisbon Portugal M8.5 Earthquake/Tsunami Earthquake/Tsunami 1707 Hoei M8.6 Nankai Trough 1759: Lebanon/Syria Lebanon/ M7.4 Earthquake/Tsunami Earthquake Syria 1703 Gennroku Edo M7.9-8.2 Kanto Area 1771: Yaeyama Japan M7.4 Earthquake Earthquake/Tsunami 1771 Yaeyama M7.4 Ryukyu Trough 1778: Iran Earthquake Iran M7.4 Earthquake/Tsunami 1783: Messiah Italy Italy M6.9 1854 Ansei M8.4 Nankai Trough Earthquake Earthquake/Tsunami 1789: Antakya Earthquake Turkey M7.0 1896 Meiji-Sanriku M8.2 East Japan 1850: Szechwan earthquake China M7.5 Earthquake/Tsunami 1854: Ansei Earthquake Japan M8.4 1923 Kanto Earthquake M7.9 Kanto Area 1855: Ansei Edo Earthquake Japan M6.9 1933 Showa Sanriku M8.1 East Japan 1868: Chile/Peru Earthquake Chile/Peru M8.8 Earthquake/Tsunami 1868: Ecuador/Columbia Ecuador/ M7.7 1944 Showa Tonankaki M8.0 Nankai Trough Earthquake Columbia Earthquake/Tsunami 1891: Nobi Earthquake Japan M8.0 1946 Showa Nankai M8.1 Nankai Trough 1896: Sanriku Japan M8.2 Earthquake/Tsunami Earthquake/Tsunami 1968 Off Tokachi- M7.9 East Japan 1899: Alaska Earthquake USA M8.6 Earthquake/Tsunami 1906: Off Columbia Columbia M8.8 1983 Central Sea of Japan M7.7 Sea of Japan Earthquake Earthquake/Tsunami 1908: Mecina Earthquake Italy M7.1 1993 Hokkaido-Nanseioki M7.8 Sea of Japan 1920: Haiyuan Earthquake China M8.5 Earthquake/Tsunami 1923: Kanto Earthquake Japan M7.9 2011 East Japan M9.0 East Japan 1938: Alaska Earthquake USA M8.3–M8.7 (After SSJ Chronological Scientiﬁc Table, Excerpt) 1939: Erzincan Earthquake Turkey M7.8 1952: Kamchatka Russia M9.0 Earthquake 1960: Chile Earthquake Chile M9.5 1964: Alaska USA M9.2 1995: Kobe Earthquake Japan M7.3 1999: Izumitt Earthquake Turkey M7.8 1999: Chi-Chi Earthquake Taiwan M7.7 2001: Indian/Pakistan Indian/ M8.0 Earthquake Pakistan 2001: Bam Earthquake Iran M6.8 2004: Sumatra Earthquake Indonesia M9.1 2008: Wenchuan Earthquake China M8.0 2010: Haiti Earthquake Haiti M7.3 2010: Chile Earthquake Chile M8.8 2011: East Japan Earthquake Japan M9.0 (After SSJ Chronological Scientiﬁc Table, Excerpt) Fig. 2. Damage from 2004 Sumatra tsunamis. Photo by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan. involve evacuation and then recovery in accordance with We must discuss restoration from many points of view, reconstruction plans, and reaching the necessary consen- such as those of safety, Resilience and cozy cities, sce- sus on these plans is a time-consuming process. narios of the recurrence of natural disasters, economics,

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ber of buildings with aseismatic structures will increase, the reconstruction of breakwaters will advance, and damage from liquefaction will decrease in the future. Further- more, research on earthquakes and tsunamis will progress, thanks to lessons learned from disasters caused by earthquakes and tsunamis. However, the coastal area of East Japan is only halfway down the road to recovery from the catastrophic damage caused by the earthquake and tsunami in 2011. Therefore, the engineering and scientific fields as well as the social science fields, such as the fields of sustainable economics, the mental recovery of people in damaged areas, sustainable communities, disaster-mitigation education for communities, and plans for many genera- tions of future cities, regions, and countries are essential and indispensable for us. Furthermore, primary industries, such as the agriculture and marine product industries, are important for recovery and revival from natural disasters. The integration of these fields will be called resilience science. I will discuss resilience science as a disaster mitigation science later; it will be indispensable for rapid restoration.

2. Countermeasures for Disaster Mitigation for Tsunamis and Earthquakes in Coastal Ar- eas

How can damage caused by tsunamis be reduced? Many countermeasures have been taken in each field. Tsunami scenarios and hazard proposals based on scientific research have to be given top priority. The simulation of tsunami propagation and inundation from the Nankai trough in southwestern Japan is indicated in Fig. 4. From this simulation, based on a scenario, we can pre- dict tsunami damage to the coastal areas and consider countermeasures. In addition to simulation research, experimental research is also important, and this is significant for the val- idation and verification of the simulations. Many tsunami researchers have inspected the damage of the 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami and the 2011 Fig. 3. Damage from 2011 East Japan earthquake. Above: East Japan earthquake and tsunami using field surveys and Damage in Onagawa, Miyagi Prefecture, Photo by Associate simulations. Professor Sakamoto of Nagoya University, Middle: Damage In Fig. 5, a tsunami simulation for Kesennuma, Miyagi in Otsuchi, Iwate Prefecture, Photo by Mr. Satoshi Nagao, Prefecture used the actual damage done in the 2011 East Below: Damage to the Kitakami River in Iwate Prefecture, Japan earthquake and tsunami. Fig. 6 indicates how the Photo by Associate Professor Sakamoto of Nagoya Univer- sediment behavior in the city of Rikuzen Takata, Iwate sity. Prefecture would affect the environment on the shoreline and offshore around the bay. The behavior of sediments onshore and offshore were influenced by environmental changes, such as damage to communities, legality, human-resource cultivation, the fu- agriculture caused by salt water of tsunami, and damage ture, and so on. For restoration, we must first recon- to fisheries caused by changes in coastal topographies and struct buildings and cities. In the process of reconstruc- nutrients [1]. tion, cities must constitute representatives from the engi- Restoration and revival in coastal areas will be further neering, scientific, and legal fields for newly constructed delayed by environmental damage and changes [2]. cities and communities. Thanks to engineering, the num-

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Fig. 4. Tsunami simulation around the Nankai Trough, Photo by Prof. Baba of the University of Tokushima. Fig.4 Tsunami simulation around the Nankai Trough Of course, before the tsunami struck the coastal area, going through the intervention of a Japan International strong motion and a long-period seismic wave from the Cooperation Agency (JICA) project (Fig. 11) between huge earthquake will cause damage Photo such as the by collapse Prof. of Banda Baba Ache, Indonesia,of the which University was damaged by theof Tokushima buildings (Fig. 7), liquefaction (Fig. 8), and fires (Fig. 9). 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami, and Higashi Mat- Recovery from liquefaction damage will be very dif- sushima, Sendai, Japan, which was damaged by the 2011 ficult because there are many kinds of damage, such as East Japan earthquake. subsidence and uplifting in different settlements. Lique- Figure 12 shows a model of empowerment. Empow- faction countermeasures before earthquakes are quite im- erment means the act of conferring legality, sanction, or a portant. formal warrant, and procuring power even in disadvanta- If a megathrust earthquake occurs, there will be com- geous situations. pound damage (Fig. 10), and restoration and revival will Natural disasters can occur anywhere and at any time. be delayed for a longer time than if any other normal type There was just a destructive earthquake of M7.8 in Nepal of earthquake occurs [3]. on April 25, 2015. Therefore, the creation of a prior restoration and revival Rapid rescue, the dissemination of disaster knowledge, plan for coastal cities is indispensable. Fig. 10 indicates advanced countermeasures, and restoration plans are in- the process of restoration in Kesennuma, Miyagi Prefec- ternationally very important and significant in the context ture after the 2011 East Japan tsunami and earthquake. of such natural disasters. Looking at Fig. 10, we can understand that restoration is Destructive earthquakes struck Kumamoto Prefecture not always rapid. Due to the severe damage in many areas in 2016 with a multiple shock generating strong seismic of East Japan, restoration has been slow. waves that caused extended damage. To revitalize communities in coastal areas damaged by Japan and many other countries experience destruc- tsunamis and earthquakes, we must promote sustainable tive natural events, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, vol- economic activity, the training of human resources, and canic eruptions, and floods, but damage reduction mea- environmental-control innovations in technology and lo- sures are insufficient and recovery is not always rapid and cal characteristics, such as culture, geometry, and popula- Resilience. tion. If there is a megathrust earthquake of over M8 in the For instance, in the fields around Sendai that were dam- Nankai Trough off southwestern Japan as expected, se- aged during the 2011 East Japan earthquake and tsunami, rious damage will result in Japan, so damage reduction some people and communities have started to either culti- preparedness and Resilience recovery is indispensable. vate salty tomatoes or use hydroponic culture. As the island of Shikoku is located near the Nankai Mutual cooperation and empowerment have been on- Trough seismogenic zone, the estimated damage to

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Kaneda, Y.

Fig. 5. Simulated tsunami damage to the city of Onagawa caused by the 2011 East Japan earthquake, Photo by Prof. Arikawa of Chuo University.

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Fig. 8. Liquefaction damage in Chiba Prefecture, East Japan, Photo from data base of city of Funabashi, Chiba Pre- fecture

(a)

Fig. 6. Sediment behavior after the East Japan earthquake in the city of Rikuzen-Takata, Iwate Prefecture, in northeastern Japan, Photo by Prof. Takahashi of Kansai University.

(b) Fig. 9. (a) Fire damage, 1995 Kobe earthquake, Photo from data base of city of Kobe, (b) Fire after 2011 East Japan earthquake, Photo by Japan Ground Self Defense Force (JGSDF).

measures for disaster mitigation and resilience science. For damage reduction and Resilience recovery, we must construct and push resilience science and disaster Fig. 7. Collapsed buildings in Kobe after 1995 Kobe earth- mitigation forward. Resilience science is explained in the quake, Photo from Kobe damage data base. next section.

Shikoku from the Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake will be tremendous. We must therefore develop counter-

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3. Resilience Science as Disaster Mitigation Science

As resilience science and disaster mitigation science depend on synthetic sciences, which include many scientific, engineering, and social research fields, resilience science is based on multiple disciplines as well as funda- mental and advanced research fields. These research fields are important at each stage: before, during, and after the natural disaster. For disaster mitigation, we would like to propose the ideas of resilience science and disaster mitigation science (Fig. 13). Disaster mitigation science draws on science, civil engineering, medical science, and social science. In science, there are many research fields, such as seis- mology, volcanology, meteorology, physics, mathemat- ics, and hydrodynamics. These fields are quite important for understanding and elucidating the mechanisms of earthquakes, tsunamis, and other natural hazards; they can provide scenarios for the occurrence of earthquakes, tsunamis, and so on. This information is very useful for the planning and preparation of countermeasures. Recently, many studies on the utilization of big data have focused on disaster mitigation and restoration, especially for earthquakes and tsunamis. In the engineering fields, there are architecture and civil engineering fields such as structural design, structural me- chanics, geotechnics, computer science, earthquake resis- tance and isolation countermeasures, tsunami and river engineering, etc. These fields and technologies involve countermeasures and can lead to proper disaster mitigation for infrastructure and individual buildings. Real time monitoring systems for early warning of earthquakes and tsunamis have already been developed and deployed on the Nankai Trough seismogenic zone in southwestern Japan. These fields and technologies mainly focus on hard- ware countermeasures for disaster mitigation. However, disaster mitigation, restoration, and revival drawing only on these fields and technologies in science and engineering would be insufficient because evacuation drills, education, the reconstruction of damaged cities, and the mental health care of victims require social science approaches as well. The social sciences include many research fields, such as sociology, pedagogy, economics, medicine, informatics, psychology, public administration, and politics. For instance, medicine and public administration or politics are justly deemed indispensable. Moreover, pedagogy is very important for disaster education and human resource development. It is the ultimate countermeasure for disaster mitigation. It is indispensable for disaster mitigation and for science, engineering, and the social sciences in societal resilience and evolution. It Fig. 10. Restoration work over 4 years in the city of Kesen- is also needed in all fields for their continuous evolution. numa, Miyagi Prefecture, East Japan, Photo by Associate To achieve disaster mitigation, restoration, and revival, Professor M. Sakamoto of Nagoya University. there will be collaboration and integration among the different fields, as this is also needed in resilience science.

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Fig. 11. Empowerment model in JICA Project.

Fig. 12. Assistance purpose from JICA.

This must be the ﬁnal countermeasure for societal re- 5) Sociology: Investigating social disaster correspon- silience and evolution. dence as it occurred in the past and suggesting future I would again like to propose the objectives of re- social routes and disaster correspondence silience science shown in Fig. 13. 1) Science: Studying natural disaster scenarios, risk, 6) Economics: Developing damage-reduction predic- and human resources development tions, constructing a hybrid economic system that will decrease the effects of disaster over a wide area 2) Engineering: Developing technologies related to supply chain and with local supply based on dam- restoration correspondence, damage reduction, and age predictions, and creating an industry that resists the quick restoration of communities disasters, like that of BCP/DCP. 3) Medical care: Providing disaster medical care, in- 7) Geography: Examining disaster geographical fea- cluding medical treatment methods and health pro- tures studies (walks around local towns and virtual motion measures towns using aerial or satellite photographs, etc.) 4) Agriculture/ﬁsheries: Studying ways to restore agriculture and marine products for local revival and re- 8) Informatics: Using disaster information systems us- construction after a disaster ing ICT and AI. Human informatics

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Disaster Mitigation Science

Medicine Science Pharmacy Engineering Agriculture

Pedagogy Sociology Damage Reduction Restoration Revival Psychology Economics Human resource Cultivation Art Informatics Law

Geography Public Literature administration Politics

Fig. 13. Resilience science/disaster mitigation science.

9) Public Administration and Politics: Exploring ad- CP refers to programs/plans for recovery and resilience ministration and politics for a society Resilience after disasters. against disasters There are various kinds of CP, as deﬁned below.

10) Literature: Exploring literature for information 1) PCP: Personal Continuity Program/Plan (life saving archives, communication techniques, and tradition and recovery) Technology to the future. 2) FCP: Family Continuity Program/Plan (life saving, 11) Art: Healing damaged people and communities, car- recovery, and alliances) rying unambiguous information, and archiving the 3) CCP (BCP+ DCP+ Mentality): Community Conti- damage nuity Program/Plan (disaster mitigation, restoration, 12) Law: Examining resilience law for effective legal ac- recovery and Resilience development for the island tion and examination of extra-legal measures for re- of Shikoku ) vival plans 4) NCP: National Continuity Program/Plan (disaster mitigation, restoration, recovery, and Resilience de- 13) Psychology: Applying research on communication velopment/ society) and psychological effects between transmitters and recipients 5) ACP: Asian Continuity Program/Plan (collaboration for Resilience Asian countries) 14) Pedagogy: Promoting human resources development for the leaders of disaster mitigation science 6) ICP: International Continuity Program/Plan (collaboration for Resilience world) This resilience science focuses on rapid rescue, disaster mitigation, rapid recovery, and the cultivation of human After natural disasters, individuals and families are resources. damaged mentally, economically, and environmentally, so The cultivation of human resources is most important they often move to new areas. PCPs and FCPs are there- for the mitigation of many kinds of disaster hazards. fore important to protect individuals and families from We will expand the concept of resilience science to breaking up and becoming depressed. CCPs are indis- countries that are prone to natural disasters [4]. pensable for the Resilience societies. CCP is a CP that includes BCP and DCP, which utilize regional strengths such as Resilience human resources, 4. Resilience Society environment, culture, and industry. In a more expanded concept of a CP, an NCP, an ACP, To realize a Resilience society, a continuity pro- and an ICP focus on a national, Asian, and international gram/plan (CP) is indispensable. continuity plan, respectively (Fig. 14).

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Name: Yoshiyuki Kaneda

Afﬁliation: Designated Professor, Vice Director of IECMS, Institute of Education, Research and Regional Cooperation for Crisis Management Shikoku (IECMS), Kagawa University

Address: 1-1 Saiwai-cho, Takamatsu 760-8521, Japan Fig. 14. Continuity Program/Plan, PCP: Person Continuity Brief Career: Program/Plan, FCP: Family Continuity Program/ Plan, CCP 1997- Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (BCP+ DCP+ Mentality): Community Continuity Pro- (JAMSTEC) gram/ Plan, NCP: National Continuity Program/Plan, ACP: 2014- Disaster Mitigation Research Center, Nagoya University Asian Continuity Program/Plan, ICP: International Continu- 2016- IECMS, Kagawa University Selected Publications: ity Program/Plan. • “DONET: A Real-Time Monitoring System for Megathrust Earthquakes and Tsunamis Around Southwestern Japan,” Oceanography, Special Issue On Undersea Natural Hazards, Vol.27, No.2, 2014. • “Structure of the tsunamigenic plate boundary and low frequency Finally, to hedge against social issues in the near future, earthquakes in the southern Ryukyu Trench,” Nature Communications, issues such as depopulation, aging, and huge natural dis- 2016. • Book for children, “Living with the Earth – Wisdom to face disasters,” asters, resilience science and disaster mitigation science Fuzanbo International, 2017 (in Japanese). must include cultivating academia, industries, and culture Academic Societies & Scientiﬁc Organizations: as indispensable concepts and measures for a resilience • American Geophysical Union (AGU) • European Geophysical Union (EGU) society. • Seismological Society of Japan (SSJ) For individuals, for families, for communities, for Shikoku Island, for the nation, for Asia, and for the world, we must construct and realize a resilience society. Finally, there are some issues in terms of how to implement resilience science in our society and realize a resilience society. One solution to these issues is human resource cultivation based on education, communication, science literacy, etc. We have to develop and implement resilience science before huge future natural disasters strike in Japan or other areas of the world.

Acknowledgements We would like to acknowledge comments and input from Dr. Vi- cente Santiago-Fandino, Dr. Wataru Shiraki, Dr. Chikako Isouchi, Eiji Tokozakura, Dr. Mayumi Sakamoto, and Dr. Gulum Tanircan on earlier drafts of this paper.

References: [1] V. Santiago-Fandi˜no, Y. Kontar, and Y. Kaneda (Eds.), Post Tsunami Hazard, Reconstruction and Restoration, Springer 2015. [2] R. J. T. Klein, R. J. Nicholls, and F. Thomalla, “Resilience to natural hazards: How useful is this concept?,” Environmental Hazards, Vol.5, pp. 35-45, 2003. [3] C. Vogel, S. C. Moser, R. E. Kasperson, and G. D. Dabelko, “Linking vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience science to prac- tice: Pathways, players, and partnerships,” Global Environmental Change 17, pp. 349–364, 2007. [4] L. Olsson, A. Jerneck, H. Thoren, J. Persson, and D. O’Byrne, “Why resilience is unappealing to social science: Theoretical and empirical investigations of the scientiﬁc use of resilience,” Science Advances 2015, e1400217, 22 May.

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