NEW SOUTH WALES GOVERNMENT | CSIRO

Climate Change in the Namoi Catchment Prepared for the Government by the CSIRO

Border -Gwydir Murrumbidgee Central West Namoi Hawkesbury-Nepean Namoi Hunter-Central Rivers Southern Rivers Lachlan Sydney Metro Lower Murray-Darling Western Murray www.greenhouse.nsw.gov.au | www.csiro.com.au CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NAMOI CATCHMENT

The following brochure has been prepared by the CSIRO to provide information regarding climate change and its consequences to landowners, landusers and the general public within the Namoi Catchment. The information presented here is based upon recent technical reports produced for the New South Wales Government by the CSIRO as well as data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and other peer-reviewed scientifi c studies. This brief summary provides an entry-point for raising awareness about the issue and for locating additional information.

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The Earth’s plants and animals depend on Evidence of Australian 1.0 the climate to which they are exposed – they Climate Change benefi t when conditions are favourable, and The they suffer when conditions become extreme. • Average temperatures in Australia rose Humans are no exception. 0.9°C from 1910 to 2004. There have been Problem more heatwaves and fewer frosts. The crops and water resources that we • Since 1950, annual rainfall has declined on use to sustain our communities are linked of the eastern seaboard and the south of the to the climate, and the economic as well continent, but increased in the northwest. Climate as human losses that we experience from hail, cyclones, fl oods, droughts and • Since 1973, droughts have become more Change bushfi res are a reminder of our ever-present intense, and extreme rainfall events have vulnerability to the climate system. increased in the northeast and southwest.

It is increasingly clear that our climate is According to the United Nations’ changing. Whereas in the past humans Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have learned to cope with climate variability “most of the warming observed over the last and change that was natural in origin, 50 years is attributable to human activities.” we are now living in a climate of our own These activities – mainly the burning of fossil making. The rate at which our climate fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas – have is being transformed is unprecedented released vast quantities of greenhouse gases throughout much of human history. into the atmosphere. Evidence of a Changing Most greenhouse gases have a long lifetime Global Climate in the atmosphere. This means that even with reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, there • Temperatures in the northern hemisphere would be a delay of several decades before at the end of the 20th century are believed those reductions have a signifi cant effect on to have been warmer than they have been at greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere. any time in the previous 1,000 to 2,000 years. Recent studies indicate that no matter how quickly we act, we are already committed to • The average global temperature in 2005 additional global warming during the 21st was the warmest on record, and eight of the century of around 0.5°C and the subsequent ten warmest years have occurred since 1997. impacts that are likely to follow. • The Earth’s average surface temperature has risen 0.7°C since 1900. In response to this challenge, we need to • Heatwaves and extreme rainfall have do two things: start planning adaptation become more common in many regions. strategies to minimise those consequences, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to slow • The sea level has risen 1.8 mm per year the rate of global climate change. since 1950 and that rate is accelerating. • There have been fewer frosts and the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland are shrinking. • The timing of physiological processes in plants and animals is changing throughout the world, and populations are shifting their distributions.

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Much of the energy which drives the Earth’s This trapping of heat energy is known as the 1.1 natural processes comes directly from the Sun. ‘greenhouse effect’ – keeping temperatures Around half of the Sun’s energy that reaches the higher than they otherwise would be, just like What is Earth breaks through the atmosphere, warming a glass greenhouse keeps plants warm (Figure the surface of the planet. The land and oceans 1). Without this process, the global average Causing then radiate that heat, some of which is trapped surface temperature would be closer to minus by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The 18°C, instead of the current 15°C. Climate principle greenhouse gases are water vapour, Change? carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.

Figure 1. The Greenhouse Effect

Some solar Some of the infrared radiation passes through radiation is the atmosphere, and some is absorbed and reflected by re-emitted in all directions by greenhouse gas the earth and molecules. The effect of this is to warm the the atmosphere earth's surface and the lower atmosphere.

Solar radiation passes through the clear atmosphere

Most radiation is absorbed Infrared radiation by the earth's surface is emitted from the and warms it earth's surface

The problem we now face is that human actions Scientists assert that there will be continued - particularly burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and warming and increases in sea levels with natural gas), agriculture and land clearing - are signifi cant impacts on natural and human increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases systems. Globally, these impacts include in the atmosphere. Since 1750, the amount of coastal fl ooding; more heatwaves storms carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen and droughts; less frost, snow and polar 35%, and the current concentration is higher ice; more people at risk of food and water than any time in at least the past 650,000 years. shortage; reduced habitat for many plant and The level of nitrous oxide has also risen 17% animal species and more people exposed to and methane 151%. infectious diseases such as malaria.

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In 2004, CSIRO and the Bureau of The report predicted that by the year 2030: 2.0 Meteorology released a report on behalf of the NSW Government which looked at past • NSW is likely to become warmer than it Climate and likely future changes to NSW’s climate. was around 1990 • There will be more hot days over 35oC and Change The report found that between 1950–2003, fewer frost days below 0oC NSW became 0.9°C warmer, with more hot • Annual rainfall is likely to decline in New days/nights and fewer cold days/nights. • Rainfall runoff and stream fl ows will Annual total rainfall declined by an average of be reduced South 14 mm per decade, with the largest declines • Droughts are likely to become more severe in rainfall near the coast due to an increase in Wales El Niño years since the mid-1970s. Extreme • The risk of bushfi res is likely to increase daily rainfall intensity and frequency have also • Extreme rainfall may become more intense decreased throughout much of the State. in central and southeast NSW.

More detailed fi ndings of the report are listed in Table 1 (below).

Table 1. Annual and Seasonal Climate Projections for New South Wales Season 2030 2070 • Warmer by +0.2– +2.1°C • Warmer by +0.7– +6.4°C Annual • Rainfall change of -13 – +7% • Rainfall change of -40 – +20% • Warmer by +0.2 – +2.3°C • Warmer by +0.7– +7.1°C Summer • Rainfall change of -13 – +13% • Rainfall change of -40 – +40% • Warmer by +0.2 – +1.9°C • Warmer by +0.7 – +5.6°C Autumn • Rainfall change of -13 – +13% • Rainfall change of -40 – +40% • Warmer by +0.2 – +2.3°C • Warmer by +0.7 – +5.6°C Winter • Rainfall change of -13 – +7% • Rainfall change of -40 – +20% • Warmer by +0.2 – +2.1°C • Warmer by +0.7 – +7.1°C Spring • Rainfall change of -20 – +7% • Rainfall change of -60 – +20%

The Namoi catchment is home to approximately The annual regional economic output is 3.0 100,000 people concentrated mostly along over $1 billion, with agricultural production the Namoi and its tributaries between accounting for nearly half of this fi gure. A The Tamworth and Narrabri, comprising an area of range of land and water management issues approximately 42,000 square kilometres. The affect the catchment including impaired water Namoi Namoi catchment is bounded by the Great quality, soil and land degradation, increasing Dividing Range in the east, the Liverpool dryland salinity, and loss of native vegetation Catch- Ranges and Warrumbungle Ranges in the south, and decline in biodiversity. However, efforts and the Nandewar Ranges and Mt. Kaputar are underway through the Namoi CMA to ment to the North. Major tributaries of the Namoi address these management challenges and River include Coxs Creek and the Mooki, Peel, ensure the natural lands and waters of the Cockburn, Manilla, and McDonald Rivers, all of catchment continue to provide a rich array of which join the Namoi upstream of Boggabri. economic and environmental benefi ts.

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Summers in the Namoi region are relatively hot, with average maximum 3.1 January temperatures of approximately 32°C at Gunnedah and Tamworth and 35°C at Walgett (Table 2). On average, the catchment experiences The Climate of the 19–56 days above 35ºC. Winters are cool to mild, with average maximum July Namoi Catchment temperatures of 16–17°C. Temperatures frequently fall below 0°C during winter months. The catchment receives approximately 500–700 mm of rainfall each year. Peak precipitation occurs in summer (November to February), and variability in rainfall from one year to the next is high.

A warming of 1.5°C and an 8% decrease in rainfall (a moderate scenario for 2030) would make the climate of Tamworth similar to the current climate of Warialda.

Figure 2. Climate Projections for New South Wales (The coloured bars show the range of projected changes corresponding with the colours in the maps)

Annual 2030 Annual 2030

Summer Summer

012345678 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 TemperatureChange(oC) Rainfall Change (%) Autumn 2070 Autumn 2070

Winter Winter

Spring 012345678 Spring -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Temperature Change (oC) Rainfall Change (%)

Since 1950, the catchment has experienced Nevertheless, despite this trend toward warming of around 0.8ºC. This is likely to drier conditions, extreme rainfall events are be partly due to human activities. Rainfall also projected to increase. Further details trends in the catchment have been variable, about these changes are described in the with some areas experiencing trends following table (Table 2), which compares toward increasing rainfall while others have average conditions for the present climate experienced declines. with ranges of potential change in 2030 and 2070. These projections account for a The future climate of the Namoi catchment broad range of assumptions about future is likely to be warmer and drier (Figure 2). global greenhouse gas emissions, as well Such trends would also increase evaporation, as differences in how different climate increase the number of days the catchment models represent the climate system. experiences extreme heat, and increase extreme winds and fi re risk.

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Table 2. Current and Projected Climate Change in the Namoi Catchment Present1 Projected Change 2030 2070 Temperature Gunnedah: 16 – 32°C2 Average Tamworth: 16 – 32°C2 +0.2 – +2.1°C +0.7 – +6.4°C Walgett: 17 – 35°C2 No. Days below Gunnedah: 3 Gunnedah: 1 – 3 Gunnedah: 0 – 2 0°C Walgett: 13 Walgett: 4 – 11 Walgett: 0 – 8 No. Days above Gunnedah: 19 Gunnedah: 22 – 40 Gunnedah: 29 – 103 35°C Walgett: 56 Walgett: 61 – 87 Walgett: 71 – 153 No. Days above Gunnedah: 0 Gunnedah: 1 – 3 Gunnedah: 2 – 26 40°C Walgett: 13 Walgett: 10 – 23 Walgett: 16 – 83 Rainfall Gunnedah: 636 mm Annual Average Tamworth: 673 mm -13 – +7% -40 – +20% Walgett: 475 mm Extreme Rainfall3 +3% +10% Evaporation +2 – +13% +4 – +40% No. Droughts per 2 2 – 4 1 – 8 decade4 Extreme Winds -5 – +8% -16 – +24% No. Fire Days5 Wagga: 50 Wagga: 53 – 58 Wagga: 58 – 72

1 Present day conditions for temperature and rainfall represent long-term averages from the Bureau of Meteorology. For other variables, present day temperatures are represented as approximately 1990 conditions. 2 Range represents average July and January maximum temperature. 3 Defi ned as 1 in 40 year 1-day rainfall event. 4 The values for draught represent average monthly drought frequencies, based upon the Bureau of Meteorology’s criteria for serious rainfall defi ciency. 5 Number of days annually with a “very high” or “extreme” fi re danger index. Changes are for 2020 and 2050, respectively, as in Hennessy et al. (2005). Data from sites within the catchment were not available, and thus data for Wagga Wagga (an area with similar climatology) are presented.

3.2 Water Impacts of Climate Change Changes in rainfall and higher evaporation rates are likely to lead to less water for streams in the Namoi Catchment and rivers in the Namoi Catchment, which will have downstream consequences for Although average changes in temperature, rainfall and evaporation will have storages and place strains on the catchment’s long-term consequences for the catchment, the impacts of climate change are water resources. For example, due to recent more likely to be felt through extreme weather events. Projections suggest trends toward reduced rainfall, as of August there will be more hot days, bushfi res, droughts and intense storms. These 2006, the Chaffey Dam on the Peel River was can all place human life, property and natural ecosystems at increased risk. at only 39% of capacity, the Additional details regarding climate change impacts to various activities and on the Manilla River was at 20%, and the assets in the catchment are discussed on the following pages. Keepit Dam on the was at 18%.

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Various studies of stream fl ows in NSW indicate that longer growing seasons and higher carbon dioxide levels that climate change is likely to further reduce future fl ows, increase the effi ciency with which pasture and crops such as with subsequent consequences for storages and use wheat use water. However, although higher levels of carbon (Hassall and Associates, 1998; Jones and Page, 2001; dioxide are likely to increase plant growth, the protein content Beare and Heaney, 2002; Bates et al., 2003). Results of of those plants is expected to be lower. Furthermore, these modelling studies specifi cally for rivers within the Namoi benefi ts to plant productivity may not be suffi cient to offset catchment indicate similar results. For example, O’Neill large reductions in rainfall or extreme temperatures (Hassall et al. (2003) estimated changes in fl ows of the Namoi and and Associates, 1998). Also, warmer temperatures will increase Peel sub-catchments ranging from -21 to +5% by 2030. heat stress on cattle and other livestock (Jones and Hennessy, 2000), reducing productivity and increasing the costs of Under the National Water Initiative, the Commonwealth, State livestock management. Increases in the frequency, intensity, and Territory Governments have agreed that water users and length of drought events would also have particularly should bear the risk of such reductions in water availability. As severe consequences for dryland activities in the catchment. a consequence, water users within the catchment may face In this sense, the unusually hot 2002/03 drought and the long-term reductions in allocations and higher prices for water. conditions that currently prevail may be a sign of things to come.

Lower fl ows and higher temperatures may also reduce Irrigated crops such as cotton will also be signifi cantly affected water quality within the catchment. While management by climate change, if not directly, then certainly indirectly efforts in the catchment have successfully addressed some though its impacts on water resources. Increasing constraints challenges, indicators of conductivity, turbidity and nitrogen on water supply is likely to constrain future allocations for the concentrations in some sub-catchments are worse than they catchment’s farmers and increase competition (and therefore have been historically (DIPNR, 2002). These issues are likely prices) for water among various users. This is likely to shift to be exacerbated by lower fl ows. For example, low fl ows, water to higher-value uses. This may ultimately affect attempts higher temperatures, and elevated nutrients create a more to expand successful and profi table agricultural enterprises in favourable environment for potentially harmful algal blooms. the catchment, and the regional economy will remain highly Salinity problems in the catchment may be exacerbated by sensitive to droughts. However, planning for climate change changes in rainfall, temperature and stream fl ows (Beare and and the diversifi cation of agricultural activities will aid in Heaney, 2003). In addition, decreases in runoff due to climate minimising adverse consequences. change may reduce the extent and function of freshwater wetlands in the Namoi catchment that provide habitat for In addition to these primary activities, a small amount of fruit birds and other wildlife. (including grape) production occurs within the catchment. Higher temperatures will lead to inadequate winter chilling Farms for some fruit trees, which may reduce fruit yield and quality. This is also true for grape varieties – warmer temperatures may The farmers of NSW have developed useful adaptation increase productivity, but reduce quality (Webb, 2006). skills that stand them in good stead for climate change, but they will need to plan for new climatic challenges and Agriculture in the catchment may also be affected by changes opportunities. This is particularly true in the Namoi catchment in periodic disturbances such as pests, disease, and wildfi res. where agricultural activity currently comprises a major part Some of these consequences can be readily managed, others of the economy and is projected to continue to do so for the may be more diffi cult and/or unforeseeable. Although there foreseeable future (Powell et al., 2006). Climate change will have are substantial local markets and industries for grains and both positive and negative impacts on the types of crops that cotton within the catchment (Powell et al., 2006), the majority can be grown and overall agricultural productivity. of agricultural production is exported either inter-state or internationally. How globalisation and economic change in Cotton and wheat currently represent the largest agricultural other countries interacts with climate change to affect the producers (by value) in the catchment, followed by grazing markets for agricultural commodities remains to be seen. and livestock rearing (cattle, sheep and poultry) (Powell et al., 2006). Dryland cropping and grazing may benefi t from

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Biodiversity would be dependent on the selection of species and the availability and suitability of available land. Furthermore, Changes to the climate will have signifi cant effects on the the benefi ts of carbon dioxide for Australia’s forests remain catchment’s plants and animals. These impacts may be uncertain and benefi ts of higher carbon dioxide concentrations worsened by land use within the catchment that reduces or may be limited over the long-term by the availability of nutrients degrades natural habitat for species. Currently, a total 113 (Howden et al., 1999b), signifi cant declines in rainfall, increased species, two populations, and seven ecological communities bushfi res or changes in pest infestations. (i.e., collections of species or habitat) within the catchment are classifi ed as threatened or endangered (DEC, 2006). Changing climate is likely to lead to changes in the These as well as other natural assets may be further degraded composition of tree species within forests, possible increased by climate change. The geographic distribution of a invasion by weeds, and changes to the habitat that these species is often defi ned by its ‘climate envelope,’ refl ecting areas provide for local plants and animals. This will raise new species-specifi c tolerances to extremes of temperature and challenges in managing forest areas for both commercial value moisture. Climate change is likely to drive changes in the and biodiversity conservation. distribution of some plant and animal species, driving some species out of the catchment or enabling invaders to move Communities in. Meanwhile, even those species capable of coping with Warmer winters are likely to reduce cold-related illnesses, but climate change alone may succumb to the cumulative effects warmer summers are likely to increase the risk of heat-related of multiple stressors. Despite such impacts, little is actually health problems, especially in the elderly (McMichael, 2003). known regarding how climate change may affect some of the Warmer temperatures may also contribute to the spread of catchment’s more iconic species such as the Brush Tailed Rock infectious diseases, although the spread of tropical diseases Wallaby and the Black Striped Wallaby, the Barking Owl and such as dengue into the Namoi catchment remains unlikely. the Pilliga Mouse. The built environment is also vulnerable to climate change. Other risks to biodiversity in the Namoi catchment include: As well as impacting on homes, it will affect infrastructure, commercial buildings and other physical assets. Changes in • Reductions in stream fl ows are likely to have a negative average climate will affect building design and performance, impact on aquatic biodiversity and wetland ecosystems including structural standards and cooling and heating demand • Plants and animals may become ‘stranded’ in isolated (PIA, 2004). Higher summer temperatures, for example, may remnants of vegetation as climate zones change, due to a force rethinking regarding building design and standards to lack of suitable habitat for migration ensure thermal comfort at minimal cost. In addition, a study by • More frequent droughts and fi res are likely to increase Austroads (2004) concluded that climate change would increase stress on plant and animal communities. road maintenance costs in NSW by up to 25% by 2100.

Forests Increases in the intensity of the heaviest rainfall events are likely to increase fl ash fl ooding, leading to strains on water infrastructure The Namoi catchment contains signifi cant forested areas, such as sewerage and drainage systems, particularly in urban particularly the state and national parks of the Pilliga Forests, areas. For example, a study by Minnery and Smith (1996) found which are important ecological assets. In addition, a small that climate change may double fl ood-related damages in urban forestry industry within the catchment generates some economic areas of New South Wales. Despite such extremes, higher activity (Powell et al., 2006). temperatures and lower average rainfall are likely to lead to increased pressure on urban water supplies, unless these impacts Preliminary research suggests that temperate region forests in are moderated by demand management measures. Australia may increase in productivity with higher temperatures and increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The risk of property loss due to bushfi re is also likely to increase. As a consequence, the expansion of plantation forestry As a consequence of these and other changes in extremes such within the catchment may be one avenue toward economic as winds and fl oods (Table 2), insurance risk assessments and diversifi cation. The viability of such an enterprise, however, premiums are likely to be affected.

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Some examples of potential adaptation 4.0 measures relevant to the Namoi catchment Adapting to Climate Change include: • Improving water-use effi ciency • Changing to crops that are more tolerant Adaptation is a risk management strategy of heat and drought involving actions to reduce the negative impacts of climate change and take advantage • Changing planting times and practices of new opportunities that may arise. The for crops types of adaptation measures adopted will • Providing more shade and cooling for vary from region-to-region. Because some of livestock the decisions we make today will have lasting • Providing migration corridors for implications for future climate vulnerability, we vulnerable fauna must start planning our adaptive responses • Reviewing fl ood management arrangements. now. By doing so, we may help to lessen some of the environmental, economic and social Making sure we have the necessary capacity to costs of climate change. implement such adaptation measures means continually expanding research, education and communication.

4.1 Some of the observed trends included: • Solid understanding of local climate history Adaptation in Action as the basis for greater understanding of climate variability and change • Growing use of weather and climate Throughout much of Australia, users of the websites for both long and short-term land have developed considerable experience forecasts in managing the high degree of variability that is characteristic of Australia’s climate. • The application of sophisticated tools However, many individuals and enterprises (such as software for tracking sub-soil are recognising that they are contending not moisture and wheat yields) for making full just with climate variability, but also climate use of all available moisture change, and the past is no longer a reliable • Shifts in the nature of crops and stock run indicator of future conditions. In response, a on the properties, with a movement away broad range of adaptation actions are being from riskier varieties and activities implemented across Australia. • Opportunistic decision-making – being ready to act on short notice to take In 1999, the Masters of the Climate project advantage of weather conditions collected information from more than 80 landholders on how they were using climate • In a few cases, deciding to leave the tools to better manage their land resources enterprise altogether. and farm businesses – 23 were selected as case studies. In 2004, those 23 landowners were All of the Masters of the Climate case studies visited again to see how they fared during the from 1999 and 2004 are available over the 2002/03 drought and to identify trends in the use internet at www.managingclimate.gov.au/ of climate tools over the intervening fi ve years. information_resources.asp.

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5.0 What is the New South Wales Government Doing?

The NSW Government is taking a leadership role in the management of climate change. In late 2005 the NSW Greenhouse Plan was released, which outlines the NSW Government’s response to climate change.

The NSW Greenhouse Plan outlines polices and actions in three main areas:

• Awareness Raising • Adapting to Climate Change • Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

Copies of the Plan can be downloaded from www.greenhouse.nsw.gov.au.

6.0 What’s happening in the Namoi Catchment

A number of activities are currently underway and socioeconomic management targets. within the Namoi catchment with the goal of Under the above mentioned targets, a improving knowledge about climate variability climate change element is planned that and change in the catchment and adaptation will incorporate a number of activities and options to reduce the catchment’s vulnerability: materials including:

The Namoi CMA is planning an initiative that • Climate change forums will focus on climate change, with an emphasis • Fact sheets on educating the community, fostering • Short courses debate and discussion, and increasing the capacity for people in the Namoi community • Field days to make decisions with climate change in • Opportunities for community members to mind. This is being done with consideration attend other educational activities outside of the native plants and animals, people of the catchment.

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For the latest The NSW Greenhouse Offi ce website: This site provides the latest news on catchment information on www.greenhouse.nsw.gov.au management projects and programs, relevant climate change, This site contains more information on what the policies, and access to brochures and publications its consequences NSW Government is doing to combat climate related to management of the catchment. change, including downloadable copies of the and tools for The Australian Greenhouse Offi ce’s National NSW Greenhouse Plan. managing risk, Climate Change Adaptation Program: visit the following The Namoi Catchment Management Authority: www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/index. web pages: www.namoi.cma.nsw.gov.au html#programme www.greenhouse.nsw.gov.au | www.csiro.com.au NGH002.N www.pirocreative.com.au