LANSDOWNE RESORT AND SPA,OCTOBER 20-22, 2019 LANSDOWNE RESORT VIRGINIA EMERGING MARKETS FORUM 2019 GLOBAL MEETING The Emerging Markets Forum was created by the Centennial Group as a not-for-pro t initiative to bring together high-level government and corporate leaders from around the BACKGROUND world to engage in dialogue on the key economic, nancial and social issues facing PAPER emerging market countries. State of The Forum is focused on some 120 market economies in Asia, Eurasia, Latin America and Democracies in Africa that share prospects of superior economic performance, already have or seek to Asia: Lessons from create a conducive business environment and are of near-term interest to private investors, Indonesia, both domestic and international. Philippines, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand and Cambodia
Harukata Takenaka
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State of Democracies in Asia: Lessons from Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand and Cambodia
Harukata Takenaka
Abstract democracies.1 Some scholars call this trend “democratic In recent years, there is a growing concern about recession.”2 reduction in the number of democracies in the world The debates center on the following two issues. The and the worsening of the quality of governance in first is on whether the number of democratic regimes has democratic countries. gone down or not. Some scholars argue that the number In the light of such concern, this paper provides an has in fact gone down.3 Other scholars contend that the assessment on the state of three different political regimes, claim that the number of democratic countries has gone namely, democratic, semi-democratic, and authoritarian down exaggerates the state of political regimes in the regimes in Asia. Compared with the average of the world, world.4 the share of democratic regimes is smaller. In recent years, The second is on the quality of governance in tradi- the share of semi-democratic regimes has expanded from tional democracies. Concerns have grown regarding the the beginning of this century. erosion of democratic norms in countries where a demo- It also examines changes in the nature of political cratic regime has been considered to be firmly established regimes in six Asian countries: Indonesia, Philippines, such as in the United States or United Kingdom. Presi- Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand and Cambodia. The natures dent Trump’s open denunciation of mass media and Prime of these regimes have experienced major changes in the Minister Johnson’s closure of the Parliament in Septem- past 25 years. Some countries have made significant ber 2019 are such pieces of evidence. As regard to the progress toward democracy from a long-term perspec- second issue, it is hard to find arguments which dispel tive. However, in recent years, political regimes in some such a concern. countries have been unstable and there have been signif- In the face of the rising concern about the state of icant deteriorations in the quality of governance in some democracy in the world, this paper provides an evalua- countries. The civil-military relationship is a major imped- tion on the state of different political regimes in Asia. More iment for democratization in most of these countries. In concretely, this paper pursues two objectives. One is to addition, corruption and reduced leverage of the Western give a concise outlook on the state of different political democratic countries have been behind the changes in the regimes, relying on the dataset provided by the Freedom natures of the political regimes in some of the six countries. House. This paper compares the state of different polit- Given the current state of political regimes in Asia, ical regimes in Asia with the state of political regimes in democratic countries and IFIs should continue to be the world. The other is to examine the state of political attentive to the state of governance in the other countries regimes in some countries in Asia. This paper focuses on and should implement policies which contribute to the six countries which have experienced significant changes expansion of democratic elements in the governance of in the nature of their political regimes from the mid-1990s. various countries. They are Indonesia, the Philippines, Myanmar, Malaysia,
1. Bermeo, Nancy. “On Democratic Backsliding.” Journal of Democracy, I. Introduction no. 1 (2016): 5-19. Diamond, Larry. “Facing Up to the Democratic Reces- In recent years, many scholars have been showing sion.” Journal of Democracy, no. 1 (2015): 141-55. Diamond, Larry. 2019. Ill Winds. New York: Penguin, 2019. Levitsky, Steven, and Daniel Ziblatt. concern about the reduction in the number of democracies 2018. How Democracies Die. New York: Crown, 2018. Schenkkan, Nate, and Sarah Repucci. “The Freedom House Survey for 2018: Democracy in in the world and the worsening of the quality of demo- Retreat.” Journal of Democracy, no. 2 (2019): 100-14. cratic governance in countries which can be still defined as 2. Diamond, Ill Winds, 54. 3. For example, Diamond, “Facing Up to the Democratic Recession.” 4. For example, Levitsky, Steven, and Lucan Ahmad Way. “The Myth of Democratic Recession.” Journal of Democracy, no. 1 (2015): 45-58. 1 HARUKATA TAKENAKA 2 The firstgroup is relevant todemocratization.Thesecond Thailand and Cambodia. The cases includedemocrati- Yet, somefactorsthispaper introduces capture some Although thispaperdoesnotexaminecountrieswhich zation, seesawingbetweenademocraticregime anda duced inthethird section. Everycasehasuniquecauses. different politicalregimes. Whilethere isalmostnocon- definitions ofdifferent political regimes: ademocratic group asareference. classic definitionofdemocratic regimes byRobertDahl. on factorswhichexistingliterature considersimportant. changes intheprevious research onpoliticalregimes. on. To helpunderstand changesin thenature of political aforementioned sixcountries,referring tofactorsintro - as inAsia.Then,itreviewsthe thestateofgovernance associated withthepersistenceofauthoritarianregimes. and authoritarianregimes. Itbeginswithreferring toa arguments sofarmadeforthedemocraticcountriesand aspects ofregime changes. stability of different political regimes this paper focuses sensus onthefactorswhichcanexplainchangesinand semi-democratic regime, ademocraticbreakdown andso which are relevant inanalyzingdevelopmentsrelated to which have been considered relevant in causing regime Definitions regimes: regime aswellasemi-democratic regime. Thethird is relates totheweakeningand breakdown ofademocratic regimes. Democratic regimes, semi-democratic regimes, regime. regime, asemi-democraticregime, andanauthoritarian proceeds asfollows.Inthesecondsection,itintroduces regimes in the six countries, this paper refers to factors He givesthefollowingeightconditionsfordemocratic international financialinstitutionsintheworld. international have hadstablepoliticalregimes, itintroduces thethird II. DefinitionsandImportantFactors 5. Dahl,Robert,Polyarchy, NewHaven:Yale UniversityPress, 1971. long-term trends ofpolitical regimes intheworldaswell This sectionintroduces definitionsofthree political So far, thispaperhasstateditsobjectives.This In thefourthsection,itprovides anoverviewonthe In the last section, it discusses the implications of the In the third section, it highlights three sets of factors 1. 2. 3. The righttovote; Freedom ofexpression; Freedom toformandjoinorganizations; 5
do notfullymeettheseconditions.Thispaperdefines a definition ofdemocratic regimes: offices as pointed out by Philippe C. Schmitter and Terry of publiccontestationandthe expansion ofparticipation. cratic regimes consistsoftwodimensions—theincrease semi-democratic regime asfollows: and thepeoplehavevotingrights,ifsomepoliticaloffices While thesetwoaspectsare important,there isanother with significantpower remain notaccountabletotheelec- torate, government cannotberesponsivetorate, government tothepeople. Lynn Karl. important element,theelectoralcontrol overpolitical Is Not.” Journal ofDemocracyno.2(1991): 75-88. Is Not.”Journal 6. Schmitter, Philippe C. and Terry Lynn Karl. “What Democracy Is. . . and Thus, thispaperadoptsthefollowingconditionsas Semi-democratic regimes are politicalregimes which Dahl emphasizesthatthedevelopmentofdemo- 1. 1. 2. 7. 4. 2. 6. 3. 8. 5. “reserved domains,”andnopolitical offices can The availability of alternative sources ofinformation; The availabilityofalternative The rightofpoliticalleaderstocompeteforsupport; A significantportionofthepopulation(normallyall All effective political offices are heldaccount- Competition existsamongpoliticaloffices, and exists, andelectionsare heldregularly toselect other words, evenwhenfree andcompetitive or indirectly. elections free andfair, suchasfreedom ofexpres - on votesandotherexpressions ofpreference. able to the electorate through elections. In sufficiently protected. adults) hastherighttoparticipateinelections. able, eitherdirectly or indirectly, totheelectorate are protected. are necessarytomakepolitical competition and sion and association and equality among the votes, sion andassociationequalityamongthevotes, freedoms ofexpression andassociation—are not through elections. In other words, there are no the peopleselectpoliticaloffices through free, fair, andregularly heldelections.Civilrightsthat Institutions for making government policies depend policiesdepend Institutions formakinggovernment petition andelectionsfree andfair—suchas rights that are necessary to make political com political offices, theyare not fullyfree or fair. Civil project significant political power if they are not Even whencompetitionamongpoliticaloffices Not alleffective politicaloffices are heldaccount- Free andfairelections; Eligibility forpublicoffice; held accountabletotheelectorate,eitherdirectly 6 Evenwhenfairandfree competitionissecured - STATE OF DEMOCRACIES IN ASIA: LESSONS FROM INDONESIA, PHILIPPINES, MALAYSIA, MYANMAR, THAILAND AND CAMBODIA 3 - - When When 10 First is is First 11 Legitimacy of the democratic regime Legitimacy of the democratic regime 12 Some democracies and semi-democracies break Some democracies and semi-democracies break While there can be several definitions for legitimacy, can be several definitions for legitimacy, While there Thirdly, external elements are important. external elements are Thirdly, The second is a division among ruling elites. The second is a division leads to the collapse of the regime as a whole. as a whole. collapse of the regime leads to the itarian Rule. Southern Europe. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Hopkins Johns The Baltimore: SouthernRule. itarian Europe. Philippe C. Schmitter, and Laurence Whitehead. Transitions from Author from Whitehead. Transitions and Laurence Philippe C. Schmitter, 1986. Press, 1978, 16. Hopkins University Press, behavior of the governments in these countries because the existing and failures, belief that in spite of shortcomings be established.” ing opposition or for carrying out unfair elections. Third elections. Third ing opposition or for carrying out unfair Countries deeply is a connection with Western countries. 2010, 38-45. political conflicts cannot be solved among themselves, be solved among themselves, political conflicts cannot for This opens the room regime. ruling coalitions of the may win the struggle. regime. Thus, a loss of support for a government a loss of support Thus, regime. often Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press, 2009, 40-41. O’Donnell, Guillermo, Press, Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press, University Cambridge Cambridge: Authoritarianism. Competitive political institutions. better than any others that might political institutions are transition a possibility. Of course, it is only an opportunity. it is only an opportunity. Of course, transition a possibility. this is the case when it is a personalized regime or a military or regime personalized a is it when case the is this ther, Western countries have easier time monitoring the easier time monitoring the countries have Western ther, norms of democracy tization in neighbor countries spreads these contribute to democratization. which have begun democratizations. Second is economic which have begun democratizations. Second Breakdown of Democratic and What Triggers some groups may seek to align with those outside the align with those outside the may seek to some groups sanctions. Again, Western countries have often imposed imposed countries have often sanctions. Again, Western and semi-democratic regime can be undermined by such and semi-democratic regime are three important factors: Legitimacy, semi-loyalty, and and semi-loyalty, important factors: Legitimacy, three are assistance to democratizing countries. The US, EU and and EU US, The countries. democratizing to assistance All of regimes. and signals weakening of the authoritarian as a minimum definition, Juan Linz has defined it as “the opposition groups to project influence and makes a regime and makes a influence to project opposition groups government and the regime is often united. In particular, united. In particular, is often government and the regime other countries have provided assistance to countries assistance to countries other countries have provided - for suppress economic sanctions on authoritarian regimes economic sanctions. Fur high costs from connected suffer Democra- of dense human interactions. Fourth is diffusion. down even after they have been established. Why do do Why established. have been they after even down collapse? There democratic and semi-democratic regimes Semi-Democratic Regime? 10. Brownlee, Jason. Authoritarianism in an Age of Democratization. Jason. Authoritarianism 10. Brownlee, Steven and Lucan Way, 84-86. Levitsky, Wave, 11. Huntington, The Third Johns and Reequilibration, Baltimore: 12. Linz, Juan Crisis, Breakdown, The division does not necessarily lead to democratization. The division does not regime authoritarian to sustain the who want The groups In 9 7
8 political power. to vote. able to the electorate that can project significant significant project electorate that can able to the Only a portion of the population has the right right the has population the of portion a Only elections are regularly held, there remain “reserved “reserved remain there held, regularly elections are domains”—political offices that are not account- not that are offices domains”—political 3. but actually quite predictable ones.” ideology (but with distinctive mentalities); with- ideology (but with distinctive mentalities); group) in which a leader (or occasionally a small political pluralism: without electorate and guiding political pluralism: without out intensive nor extensive political mobilization extensive political mobilization out intensive nor limits ill-defined formally within power exercises (except some points in their development); and and development); their in points some (except ... political systems with limited, not responsible, “... political systems with Lastly, political regimes which do not fulfill these three not fulfill these three which do political regimes Lastly, Economic crises spread dissatisfaction with the regime regime the with dissatisfaction spread crises Economic In essence, in authoritarian regimes, political offices are are political offices In essence, in authoritarian regimes, There is extensive literature on democratization. This on democratization. This literature is extensive There ited by Erik Allardt and Yrjö Littunen, Helsinki: Academic Bookstore, 1964, and Yrjö Littunen, Helsinki: Academic Bookstore, ited by Erik Allardt 9. Huntington, The Third Wave, 54. Wave, 9. Huntington, The Third Late Twentieth Century. Norman, Okl.: University of Oklahoma Press, 1993. Norman, Okl.: University of Oklahoma Press, Century. Late Twentieth 8. Huntington, Samuel Phillips. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Wave: 8. Huntington, Samuel Phillips. The Third Whitehead. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule. Southern Europe. Balti- Authoritarian Rule. Southern Europe. from Whitehead. Transitions important factors, which contribute to democratization: democratization: to contribute which factors, important tions. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995. tions. Princeton: Princeton University Press, - Stephan and Robert R, Kaufman. Political Economy of Democratic Transi O’Donnell, Schmitter and Whitehead point to military defeat as one im- 297. not held accountable to the people through elections. Yet, elections. Yet, not held accountable to the people through paper introduces some factors which are considered to to considered some factors which are paper introduces It focuses on three semi-democratic regimes. or regime make policy failures. There is a distinction between the is a distinction between the There make policy failures. regime from collapsing. In authoritarian regimes, it is more it is more In authoritarian regimes, collapsing. from regime portant factor. O’Donnell, Guillermo, Philippe C. Schmitter, and Laurence and Laurence O’Donnell, Guillermo, Philippe C. Schmitter, portant factor. and Kaufman 1986. Haggard The Johns Hopkins University Press, more: fall of a government and the fall of a democratic regime. fall of a governmentfall of a democratic regime. and the there exists competition among different political groups. competition among different exists there democraticto regimes authoritarian from transitions trigger What Causes Transitions to Democracies? What Causes Transitions and Party Systems: Contributions to Comparative Political Sociology, ed- and Party Systems: Contributions to Comparative Political Sociology, and spread opposition against the regime. Military defeats opposition against the regime. and spread economic crises and defeat in war, split among the ruling economic crises and defeat in war, elites, and external elements. conditions at all are considered as authoritarian. Instead Instead as authoritarian. considered conditions at all are on the it relies this paper, own terminology of of creating cause weakening of the regime or direct downfall. or direct cause weakening of the regime definition which has been widely referred by Juan Linz. He referred been widely definition which has as follows: regime defines the authoritarian democratic regimes, governments change when they governments they when change regimes, democratic difficult to change the government alone. The fate of the difficult consider economic crisis as a driving factor in some case. See Haggard, consider economic crisis as a driving factor in some case. See Haggard, 7. Linz, Juan J. “An Authoritarian Regime: Spain.” In Cleavages, Ideologies The change of a government prevents the democratic the democratic The change of a government prevents HARUKATA TAKENAKA 4 1(1990). 51-69 15. Linz,Juan.“PerilsofPresidentialism,” ofDemocracy, Journal no 1988 128. andBureaucratic-Authoritarian14. O’Donnell,GuillermoA.Modernization - 13. Linz,Crisis,Breakdown, andReequilibration 32. zens seesomepolicyfailures orpoliticalscandals, citizens Alfred. Rethinking Military Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press, democratic regime.” defines itas“awillingnesstoencourage,tolerate,cover democratic orasemi-democraticregime, thepeoplemay democratic regimes, asthispaperhasalready emphasized, ocratic regimes. Itisencouragementorexpectationson or thesemi-democraticbreaks down. own power or short-term interests without clearly realizing cratic regime. Yet, whennotmuchtimehaspassedafter associate poor performances of a government withthe associate poorperformancesofagovernment a country has made a transition from an authoritarian to a and notoneofthedemocraticregime orthesemi-demo- stake inmaintainingtheregime suchaslegislatorsorcivil- Some political institutions are more prone to create political the doorofbarracks”. the militaryinterveneswhenpoliticiansgo“toknockon ticularly important when we consider military involvement to bringdowntheregime. The issueofsemi-loyaltyispar wish toseeitscollapse. the militarybysomelegislatorsorcivilianswhichbring the long-term consequences oftheir actions. Theydonot tinue poor performance for a long time, regime legitimacy factors as poor economic performance and corruption. In result ofmilitary intervention. Many scholars pointoutthat mines thestrength oftheregime whenthere are attempts paralysis. Thisisespeciallytrueofthepresidential system. military intopoliticsandintheenddemocraticregime may bedamagedaswell. regime performancesandthusregime legitimacymaybe performance from performance. When citi- government united to support the democratic regimes or semi-dem- necessarily intendtooverthrow theregime nordothey up, treat leniently, excuse,orjustifychallengesagainstthe undermined. Further, con- whenanumberofgovernments usually perceive itasaproblem ofaparticulargovernment Presidential systemsoftenleadtoparalysisbecauseof in politics.Oftendemocraticregimes breakdown asa intervene inpoliticswhenpartypoliticiansandciviliansare ians. Theyoftendosobecausetheyseektoenhancetheir its twocharacteristics.Oneistheissueofduallegitimacy. it is normally possible for the citizens to differentiate regime ism. Berkeley: University of California Press,ism. Berkeley:UniversityofCalifornia 1973,152.SeealsoStepan, The third importantfactoristhepoliticalinstitution. Juan Linzadvocatedtheconceptofsemi-loyalty. He Semi-loyalty ofsomepoliticalactorsseverely under 13 Itisanacttakenbythosewhohave 14 Namely, the militarydoesnot 15 - -
17. Usingadatasetcreated from countriesbetween1950and1990, 16. Shugart,MathewandJohnCarey. Presidents andAssemblies.New 19. Brownlee, 32-42. 18. Brownlee, Jason. Authoritarianism in an Age ofDemocratization. Cam- Jose Antonio Cheibub, and Fernando Limongi.DemocracyandDevelop- Jose AntonioCheibub,andFernando York: CambridgeUniversityPress, 1992:154-158. down. development are lesslikelytocollapsethan developed cal partiescontributetoincorporatingdiverseinterests in often fixedanditisveryhard to remove thepresident. While often entergridlock.Second,thetenure ofthepresident is other politicalactorshavestronger incentivestoremove are dominatedbydifferent politicalparties,thenpolitics after all.Thestagnationofpoliticsoftenprompts somepol- achieved high level of economic development likely draw authoritarian regimes. society andalsoencouragetheregime elitestohavea sometimes encourage the military to intervene in politics to sometimes encouragethemilitarytointerveneinpolitics support from thepeople. development becomehigher. SeePrzeworski, Adam,MicaerlE.Alvarez, authoritarian regime tocollapsebecomelowerasthelevelofeconomic and EricaFrantz.HowDictatorshipsWork: Power, Personalization,and when theydonotrespect democraticpracticesandthus Why DoAuthoritarianRegimesPersist? ture are elected directly from the people. When two offices time, scholarshaveconsidered thateconomicdevelop- the persistenceofauthoritarianregimes? Itispossibleto taining themselves. What are factors which contribute to If anauthoritarianregime cancreate acohesivepolitical ment: PoliticalInstitutionsandMaterialWell-Being intheWorld, 1950-1990. party, the party helps the regime to sustain control. Politi- president, itisalengthyprocess whichstagnatespolitics presidents whohavestrong powersare more likelytobreak- remove thepresident. Collapse. Cambridge,UnitedKingdom: CambridgeUniversityPress, 2018. Cambridge: CambridgeUniversityPress, 2000. make iteasierevenforanauthoritarianregime tosustain regimes. Yet, economicdevelopmentisnowconsidered to ment likely contributes to thedevelopment of democratic ment. Let’s startwitheconomicdevelopment.Foralong political parties,andcostofmakingacollectivemove- point outthree importantfactors: economicdevelopment, Namely, thetwoinstitutions,executiveandlegisla- iticians toremove thepresident byextra-legalmeans.They impeachment isoftenprovided asameanstoremove the itself. Authoritarianregimes withhighlevelsofeconomic him/her evenresorting toextra-constitutionalmeans. Przeworski, Alvarez, Cheibub,andLimongidemonstratethatchancesof long-term horizon. bridge: Cambridge Univ. Press, 2009. Geddes, Barbara, Joseph Wright, The secondfactoristhecohesionofpoliticalparties. Today, manyauthoritarianregimes succeedinmain- Carey and Shugart find that democratic regimes with 16 Presidents withstrong powerscauseproblems 19 Also,theauthoritarianregime candis- 17 Authoritarianregimes which have 18
STATE OF DEMOCRACIES IN ASIA: LESSONS FROM INDONESIA, PHILIPPINES, MALAYSIA, MYANMAR, THAILAND AND CAMBODIA 5 - In 24 Then, it takes the Then, it takes the 23 While democratic regimes continue to be the domi- While democratic regimes Then, how did overall number of different political political number of different Then, how did overall The research of Freedom House demonstrates that that demonstrates House of Freedom The research was 40 in 1975, The number of democratic regimes 65 declined from The number of authoritarian regimes liberties of the countries in the world, providing scores scores in the world, providing liberties of the countries between 1 and 7 to both elements. increased from 53 to 58 in the same period. The share, on to 58 in the same period. The share, 53 from increased tional Interest, September 1, 1996. tional Interest, Europe as a democratization in one country affected one country affected democratization in as a Europe Then, and 1987 respectively. democratized in 1986 Korea Russia. In the heyday of the third wave and the euphoria Russia. In the heyday of the third - 23. For the detailed “Methodology 2019.” https://freedomhouse.org/re Na- Road to Democracy,” China’s “The Short March: 24. Rowen, Harry. nations. This paper treats free nations as almost equivalent equivalent almost as nations free treats paper This nations. regimes. nations as countries under authoritarian under democratic regime came to form the most numer most the form to came democratic regime under regimes change since 1970s? The Freedom House offers House offers The Freedom change since 1970s? regimes nant group, the number plateaued from the end of the the end of the the number plateaued from nant group, regimes in the world. In 1970s, countries under authori- regimes port/methodology-freedom-world-2019. Indonesia was democratized in 1999 following the collapseIndonesia was democratized to detect such contagion defects, a number of democratic a number of democratic contagion defects, to detect such 3.0 to 5.0 as partly free, and with 5.5 to 7.0 as not free to 7.0 as not free and with 5.5 free, partly as 5.0 3.0 to 33.5% to 30.1%. from lowered the contrary, there was a dramatic shift in the proportion of political political of was a dramatic shift in the proportion there the in group dominant the most constituted regimes tarian the world. from dropped to 45 between 1975 to 2006. The share world. In the first decade of the 21st century countries century countries world. In the first decade of the 21st countries in the which accounted for 25.3% of the total 40.3% in 1992 to 75, which shared world. It increased would become democratic one day. In 1996, Henry Rowen In 1996, Henry would become democratic one day. such data. It evaluates the state of political rights and civil of political rights the state data. It evaluates such average of the two scores to provide the rating for each the rating for each to provide of the two scores average and not free as countries under semi-democratic regimes, after the end of the cold war. It reached 90 between 2005 It reached after the end of the cold war. in counting about 47% of the total countries and 2006, countries expanded in Asia as well. Philippines and South well. Philippines and in Asia as countries expanded Asian Financial Crisis, In the aftermath of of its president. in 1998. of the Suharto regime country. They classify countries with 1.0 to 2.5 as free, with They classify countries with 1.0 to 2.5 as free, country. of countries under democratic regimes, partly free nations nations partly free of countries under democratic regimes, in the world. ous group of democratization, there were expectations that China expectations that China were of democratization, there by 2015. expected China to be a democratic regime developments in other countries. While it may be difficult difficult be may it While countries. other in developments first decade of this century. Examples are China and China and Examples are first decade of this century. 41.1% to 23.3%. The number of semi-democratic regimes regimes semi-democratic of number The 23.3%. to 41.1% Taiwan became democratic in 1996 with the direct election in 1996 with the direct became democratic Taiwan - If 21 The 22 Also, organized parties can institutionalize the rule the rule parties can institutionalize Also, organized 20 In this section, this paper provides a more detailed detailed more a this paper provides In this section, It is possible to detect contagion effects in the three in the three It is possible to detect contagion effects The third factor is the cost and benefit of mobilization factor is the cost and The third Michigan Press, 1995: 15-34. Michigan Press, III. Overview information about local conditions through party organiza- through about local conditions information itarian regime in Portugal in 1974. Democratizations took itarian regime 22. For more detailed overview of a general trend in the state of dem- detailed overview of a general trend 22. For more 20. Geddes, Wright, and Frantz129-136. 20. Geddes, Wright, of Dilemma. Ann Arbor: University 21. Lichbach, Mark Irving. The Rebel’s number of democracies has expanded in the world since number of democracies has expanded in political rule. When the authoritarian regime looks invincible, looks regime authoritarian the When rule. political become and regime the challenge not dare who people - promo the social ladder through inclined to climb more picture on changes in various regimes in the world. changes in various regimes on picture part in opposition movements can receive benefits from from benefits receive can movements opposition in part in participating from rewards reduce and of prices raise made a transition to a democracy in 1983 and Brazil in in Brazil and 1983 in democracy a to transition a made place in other parts of Southern Europe. In the same year, the same year, In parts of Southernplace in other Europe. very much to his description while I have made distinctions among three three among distinctions made have I while description his to much very the organized party can also recruit and coopt talented talented and coopt recruit can also party organized the tions in the party. tions. tribute benefits to supporters, monitor citizens and gather monitor citizens and to supporters, tribute benefits the democratization as a democracy is a collective good. is a collective the democratization as a democracy increased penalties, severe include These opposition. the the end of cold war in early 1990s, many Eastern European tion of new constitution in 1978. Then, democratizations tion of new constitution in 1978. Then, democratizations - introduc the as well as 1977 in election the general with different regimes instead of dichotomous distinctions. regimes different sition movements have to be faced with in confronting an confronting with in to be faced movements have sition Global Trend at a Glance Global Trend spread to South America in 1980s. For example, Argentina spread authoritarian regime. That is a collective action problem. That authoritarian regime. an increase in rewards for support of the regime. of the regime. for support in rewards an increase a challenge against an authoritarian regime succeeds and a challenge against an authoritarian regime did not take any a democratization takes place, those who areas in Southern South America and Eastern areas Europe, authoritarian regime and then Spain became democratic democratic became Spain then and regime authoritarian of change of leadership and can avoid personalization of avoid personalization of leadership and can of change oppo- which problem is one inherent of opposition. There countries made transitions to democracy from 1989. countries made transitions to democracy from difficulties for communication among the opposition, and difficulties democratization,” starting with the collapse of the author Greece turnedGreece democracy with the collapse of the military ocratic and authoritarian regimes, see Diamond, Ill Winds,ocratic and authoritarian regimes, 41-58. I owe Thus, it becomes important for an authoritarian regime to regime Thus, it becomes important for an authoritarian 1970s in what Samuel Huntington calls “the third wave of “the third 1970s in what Samuel Huntington calls 1985. Then, with the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and 1985. Then, with the collapse of the Berlin Wall HARUKATA TAKENAKA 6 1999, MichaelMcFaulevaluatedRussiaasanelectoral The Freedom HousehasneverclassifiedRussiaasafree democracy andexpressed ahopeforRussiatobelib- country. It,however, wassemi-democraticuntil2002.Yet, eral democracy although with some reservations. stable authoritarianregime hasbeensustainedinChina. these twocountriesare notdemocraticregimes today. A 2(1999). 4-18. 25. McFaul, Michael “Want Went Wrong of Democracy in Russia,” Journal Russia thenbecameanauthoritarian country. Figure 1:NumberofDifferent PoliticalRegimesintheWorld Figure 2:Share ofDifferent PoliticalRegimesintheWorld 25 Yet, 2018, counting25.6%ofallcountries. Thenumberofand of democratic regimes and the growth in the number of cratic regimes, we observe the decline in the number of authoritarianregimes hasslightlyincreased to50in authoritarian regimes inpastafewyears.In2018,the share decreased to44.1%. Inthemeantime,number the share ofcountries underasemi-democraticregime number ofdemocraticregimes declinedto86whilethe has notchangedmuch. Far from witnessingafurthergrowth ofdemo- STATE OF DEMOCRACIES IN ASIA: LESSONS FROM INDONESIA, PHILIPPINES, MALAYSIA, MYANMAR, THAILAND AND CAMBODIA 7 Yet, the situation in Asia is different from the rest of the the rest from is different the situation in Asia Yet, been solidly democratic. The growth in the number of in the number of growth democratic. The been solidly of ratio the as well as number the century this of beginning in Asia! Since 1990s, however, the number has expanded number has expanded the 1990s, however, in Asia! Since the world. Today, it is still below 20%. Second, from the the from it is still below 20%. Second, the world. Today, world. First, the ratio of democratic regimes is lower than of democratic regimes world. First, the ratio and Japan, India, South Korea, Mongolia and Taiwan have and Taiwan Mongolia India, South Korea, and Japan, democratic countries parallels the trend in the world. parallels the trend democratic countries 1980s Japan and India were the only democratic countries the only democratic and India were 1980s Japan - Now, let’s turn to situation in Asia. From 1980s, the turn the 1980s, to situation in Asia. From let’s Now, To give some examples of regime changes, Mexico Mexico changes, regime of examples some give To Share of Different Political Regimes in Asia of Different Share 4: Figure Number of Different Political Regimes in Asia Political Regimes 3: Number of Different Figure broke down in Thailand in 2005 and it became an author in 2005 and it down in Thailand broke in 2011, as did Hungary and Serbia in 2018. Democracy in 2018. Democracy did Hungary and Serbia in 2011, as in the following year. itarian regime number of democratic regimes has steadily grown. In mid has steadily grown. regimes number of democratic Political Regimes in Asia Political Regimes in changed its status from democracy to semi-democracy democracy to semi-democracy status from changed its HARUKATA TAKENAKA 8 Then, itrefers tofactorswhichcanhelpusunderstand have This meansdemocraticelementsingovernance duces caseswhere countrieshaveexperienceddramatic democratic regimes andsemi-democraticregimes. Some 25 years.There are severalpatterns. cratic breakdown, namely, Thailand.Thesixthisacaseof goes backandforthbetweenademocraticregime anda case ofsemi-democratizationinwhichanauthoritarian case ofIndonesia.Thesecond,similartothefirst,is a changes in the nature of their political regimes in the past very stablesuchasChinaandSingapore. Also,there have expanded overthelongterm. expanded. Currently, the ratio of authoritarian regimes is authoritarian andsemi-democraticregimes havebeen about 40%andsoistheratioofsemi-democraticregimes. as well as the ratio of semi-democratic regimes have authoritarian regimes havegonedownwhilethenumber semi-democratic regime transformed intoanauthoritarian semi-democratic regime. This is the case of the Philippines. to Myanmar. the nature of political regimes changed in each country. the current regime. Second,itprovides descriptiononhow that there hasbeenasteadyincrease inthenumberof Regime Changes regime, thecaseofMalaysia. Thefifth isacaseofdemo- regime changesineachcountrythelightsofvarious regime. Thisisthecaseof Cambodia. regime becomes a semi-democratic regime. This applies regimes broke down.Inthis section,thispaperintro- been somecaseswhere democraticandsemi-democratic IV. SixCasesfrom Asia Figure 5:Direction ofChangesinSixCountries Cambodia Thailand Malaysia Philippines Myanmar Indonesia The fourth is acase ofanunstable semi-democratic The third isacaseofanunstable politicalregime which The firstisacaseofdemocratization.Thisthe The discussionintheprevious doesnotmean,however, For eachcase,thispaperfirstevaluatesthenature of Authoritarian --->Democratic Semi-Democratic--->Democratic Semi-Democratic --->Authoritarian Authoritarian --->Semi-Democratic Democratic --->Authoritarian Authoritarian --->Democratic Semi-Democratic --->? Patterns ofChanges Patterns 1945 constitution between 1999 and 2002. The DPD does not have power onthe legislation. It has The DPRisthelegislature. TheMPR(People’s Consultative Assembly) isauniqueinstitutioninIndonesia,whichhas dent to the MPR. The constitutional court has to examine if dent totheMPR.Theconstitutionalcourthasexamineif dent. TheMPRconsistsfrom themembersofDPR and years andre-election ispossible justforthesecondterm. votes aswellatleast20%ofthefrom more than eral election above certain threshold. The Constitution only powertopropose legislations asregard totherela - and thesupreme courtaswelltheconstitutionalcourt. a democraticregime. Indonesiaadoptsaseparationof stipulates thatthepairofpresidential andthevice-pres- Concerns the proposal isappropriate andifitconsiderstheproposal they havetobeproposed bythepoliticalpartieswhich andprovinces.tionship betweenthecentralgovernment the members of the DPD, Regional Representative Council. factors relevant toregime changesand regime stability Indonesia: ADemocraticRegimewithRemaining Nature ofRegime majority, theDPR canpropose impeachmentofthePresi- president andthevicepresident are electedasapairand power toamendtheconstitutionandremove thepresi- power systemasaresult ofthefouramendments 26. Kawamura, Koichi. “Indonesia no Daitoryo sei [Presidential System of Perwakilan Rakiyat), the People’s Consultative Assembly Rakiyat), thenationalassembly, aswellMPR(Majelis tics ofPresidential SysteminAsia].MinerubaShobo.Kyoto.2010,135-175. idential candidateshavetoreceive more than50%ofthe is dividedbythePresident, theDPR(DewanPeriacinal introduced intheprevious section. Indonesia]” inAjianiokeruDaitoryonoHikakuSeijigaku[ComparativePoli- half oftheprovinces towintheelection.Thetermisfive have seats in the DPR or have received votes in the gen- The president can be impeached. With thetwothirdThe president canbeimpeached.With The president isdirectly electedfrom thepeople.The Today, under the current political system Indonesia is 26 The power STATE OF DEMOCRACIES IN ASIA: LESSONS FROM INDONESIA, PHILIPPINES, MALAYSIA, MYANMAR, THAILAND AND CAMBODIA 9 In April April In 30 , and was re-elected. , and was re-elected. 31
29 President Yudhoyono became re-elected in 2009 and in 2009 and became re-elected Yudhoyono President In May 2004, the first truly democratic elections in termsIn May 2004, the first truly democratic elections It is fair to say that Indonesia maintains democracy It is fair to say that Indonesia maintains democracy Under the Megawati presidency, the democratization democratization the presidency, Megawati the Under Given that in 2004 all political offices came under con- Given that in 2004 all political offices The deterioration of his relationship with the DPR and with of his relationship The deterioration Democracy’s Close Call.” Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 50:3, Democracy’s held between July and September 2004, Susilo Bambang held between July and September 2004, become complete. in the Megawati administration, defeated the incumbent, the incumbent, in the Megawati administration, defeated involved in corruptions. involved in in August 2002 so that the president would be directly would be directly that the president in August 2002 so 30. Aspiall, Edward and Mercus Mietzner, “Indonesian Politics in 2014: Mietzner, and Mercus 30. Aspiall, Edward 352-353. Times, April 11, 2019. 31. New York Prabowo, the former military commander and was once Prabowo, the former military commander and was once President Megawati, in the run-off election. Megawati, in the run-off President DPR and the MPR. In addition, he was suspected of being he was suspected of MPR. In addition, DPR and the presidential election, Joko Widodo,presidential Jokowi, the governor the Suharto, run from married to a daughter of President 29. Liddle “Indonesia in 2000.” Michael S. Malley Indonesia in 2001: Re- reform eliminated seats allocated for military officers in in for military officers eliminated seats allocated reform return to the 1945 constitution return nesia in 2000: A Shaky Start for Democracy” Asian Survey 41:1, 208-220. from the PDI-P in a competition against Prabowo Subianto. the PDI-P in a competition from trol of the electorate, it is fair to say that Indonesia has electorate, it is fair to say that Indonesia has of the trol In the 2014 tration, politics of Indonesia became stable. further progressed. The MPR amended the constitution the constitution The MPR amended further progressed. today. Yet, there are two concerns. are rise of One is the there Yet, today. tionship with the political parties, which had dominated the dominated had which parties, political the with tionship the MPR led to his impeachment by the MPR in July 2001. in MPR the by impeachment his led to MPR the political institutions became more the DPR. Thus, the while the PDI-P finished second. In the presidential election while the PDI-P finished second. In the presidential this year, President Joko WidodoJoko President again once competed year, this wati became the new president. wati became the new store Stability in Jakarta” Asian Survey. 42:1, 124-132. 42:1, 124-132. Stability in Jakarta” Asian Survey. store with Prabowo, who again made the same commitment to commitment same the made again who Prabowo, with served two full terms. Under the Yudhoyono adminis- served two full terms. Under the Yudhoyono some conservative Islamic groups which are intolerant of intolerant are which groups Islamic conservative some of Jakarta, was elected as the president with the support the with president the as elected was Jakarta, of of coordinating politics, social and security of Indonesia of Indonesia security and social politics, coordinating of of seat allocations was conducted. The Golkar came first of seat allocations was conducted. The other beliefs and the polarization between them and those elected from the people. Further, in 2003, the electoral in 2003, the electoral the people. Further, elected from finished transition to from an authoritarian regime to a regime to an authoritarian finished transition to from democratic regime. the re-adopt to commitment a made and Party Gerindra democratic than before and transition to democracy had had democracy to transition and before than democratic As President Wahid was removed, Vice President Mega- Vice President was removed, Wahid As President Yudhoyono, a former military officer and former minister and former minister officer a former military Yudhoyono, 1945 constitution, which was very authoritarian. was very which constitution, 1945 The president The president 27 - Such an appointment policy worsened his rela 28 President Habibi announced in June 1998 that the Habibi announced in June 1998 that the President President Wahid only had a weak support base in only had a weak support base in Wahid President Indonesia, however, was an authoritarian regime under regime authoritarian an was however, Indonesia, The presidential election was held in December 1999. The presidential The general election was conducted in June 1999. The The general election was conducted in June The president’s power over the legislature is not strong. is not strong. legislature power over the The president’s largest in the DPR. At the onset of his administration, he law. Yet, the decree has to be approved by the DPR. has to be approved the decree Yet, law. in 2000]” in Ajia Doko Nenpo [Almanac of Current Affairs in Asia] 2001. Ajia Asia] in Affairs of Current [Almanac Nenpo Doko Ajia in 2000]” in Keizai Kenkyujo. Tokyo. 2002, 382-412. See also R William Liddle, “Indo- Keizai Kenkyujo. Tokyo. has power to issue decree which has the same effect as a has the same effect which has power to issue decree in the DPR and all bills have to receive approval from the from approval have to receive in the DPR and all bills May 1998 to be succeeded by the Vice President Habibi. May 1998 to be succeeded by the Vice President Party of Indonesia, led by Megawati Sukarnoputri, a Sukarnoputri,Party of Indonesia, led by Megawati a He/she does not have power to dissolve the DPR. He/she DPR. the dissolve to power have not does He/she number of seats of the National Assembly, the DPR, allo- DPR, the Assembly, National the of seats of number President before being legislated. It is possible to consider being legislated. It is before President regime, came second. regime, respectively in May 1999 and December 1999. respectively 27. Kawamura, 145. Sato, “Nisennen no Indonesia [Indonesia 28. Kawamura, Koichi and Yuri president and was elected the vice president. president religious leader and a leader of the PKB, the National National the PKB, the of leader a and leader religious ment. When the two third who are present in MPR support in MPR support present who are the two third ment. When Developments the DPR as his National Awakening Party was the fourth Party was the fourth the DPR as his National Awakening personally close two largest parties with people who were to him. the two presidents, Sukarno 1950s. In from the two presidents, and Suharto the impeachment, the president will be impeached. the president the impeachment, was considered to be the most promising presidential presidential promising most the be to considered was that the president has virtual veto power. has virtual that the president seats were elected under the proportional representation representation elected under the proportional seats were Democratic system. In the election, the PDI, Indonesian soon replaced many ministers including ministers from the many ministers including ministers from soon replaced accepted ministers from the major political parties. Yet, he the major political parties. Yet, accepted ministers from against President Suharto. President Suharto resigned in resigned Suharto Suharto. President against President appropriate, then the MPR takes a vote on the impeach- takes a vote on the then the MPR appropriate, cated to the military was reduced from 75 to 38 and 462 75 to 38 and 462 from cated to the military was reduced general election and presidential election would be held election would be held general election and presidential candidate until the election, decided to run for the vice candidate until the election, decided to run for the vice crisis caused by the Asian financial crisis and mass protest protest and mass crisis the Asian financial caused by crisis daughter of former President Sukarno, daughter of former President came first. The the ruling party under the former authoritarian Golkar Party, does not have power to veto legislations passed by DPR. does not have power Awakening Party, as the new president. Megawati, who Megawati, who as the new president. Party, Awakening Yet, the president can participate in the bill deliberation deliberation bill the in participate can the president Yet, The MPR elected, Abdurrahman Wahid, a moderate a moderate The MPR elected, Abdurrahman Wahid, 1998, the Suharto regime collapsed amid the economic collapsed amid the economic 1998, the Suharto regime HARUKATA TAKENAKA 10 Semi-Democratic Regime direct cause which led to the rise of opposition against conservative Islamicgroup raisedtheissueofreligion veto afterthelegislation.Theconstitutionencourages essary to win at least 20% of the votes in more than half of carefully designed to avoid the pitfalls of the presidential an economic condition first led to the spread of students authoritarian nature inpresidential elections. a presidential systemwithabicamerallegislature. The and thenationalassembly. Thepresident cannotexercise are electedfrom constituencieswhichare determinedby system. First,theelectoralsystemprompts candidatesto shia [Indonesiain2017]”AjiaDoko Nenpo [AlmanacofCurrent Affairs to includeordinary citizens. to 58%becauseofdepreciation ofIndonesiarupiah.Such the regime wastheAsianfinancialcrisisin1997.As a way toavoidsevere confrontation betweenthepresident we havetobearin mind. The Indonesian constitution is who supportdiversity. townships andpopulation. tests triggered thecollapseof regime. Myanmar: FromanAuthoritarianRegimetoa Relevant Factors Nature ofRegime protest againsttheregime andthemovementsexpanded recorded negative13%whiletheinflationrateskyrocketed result ofthefinancialcrisisin1997GDPgrowth rate runoff, theincumbentlostelection.Theotherconcern president toengageinthe deliberationintheassembly. president iselectedbythemembersoflegislature. As provinces. Second,theconstitution isdesignedinsucha receive wider support from the citizens by making it nec 34. “ThePyithusHluttaw ElectoralLaw.” 33. Bird, Judith.“Indonesiain1998” inAsianSurvey, 39:1, 27-37. 32. Kawamura,KoichiandMikiHamada,“NisenyujunananennoIndone- is apoliticiansuchasPrabowocanrunontheplatformof in theelectionasincumbentwasaChristian.In involved personalattributes.Yet, there isonemore factor between FebruaryandApril2017isoneexample.The Kenkyujo. Tokyo. 1999,385-426. Kawamura, Kohichi “Senkyujuhachinen no Indoneshia [Indonesia in 1998]” of Democracy,Pluralism inIndonesia.”Journal no.4(2019):104-18. Marcus Mietzner. “SoutheastAsia’s Troubling Elections:Nondemocratic in AjiaDokoNenpo[AlmanacofCurrent Affairs inAsia]1999.AjiaKeizai in Asia]2018(AjiaKeizaiKenkyujo.Tokyo. 2018), 390-407.Edward, and large as330members of the House ofRepresentatives Today, Myanmarisasemi-democraticregime. Itadopts The developmentstoward afulldemocracy mighthave As hasbeenpointedoutbyvariousscholars,the 32 The governor electionofJakarta Thegovernor 34 33 Upto110seatsatmaximum Thespread ofthemasspro- - dent istobeelectedfrom the candidatesbythemembers detect thevoterswhocastedopposingvotes. draft, thenationalreferendum wasnotfree asthevoting 25 yearsasitwasunderthecontrol ofthemilitarygov- offices are not held accountable as one quarter of seats elections havebeenfairandcompetitive.Yet, allpolitical of bothhouses.Onecandidateisselectedfrom themem- chambers. chambers were notfullydemocraticasthemilitary held since1988.Democratizationbeganin2008.The ernment on the draft constitution. While the military government on thedraftconstitution.Whilemilitarygovernment and the third from the members appointed by the mili- are allocated to military officers. For the upper house, at are British. are foreign nationals,anobviousregulation intendedto announced thatmore than90%ofthevotersapproved the stitution adoptedthebicameralsystem.Theupperhouse was designedtorepresent theprovinces whilethelower would holdanationalreferendum tointroduce aconstitu- was carried out in such a way that the government could was carried out in such a way that the government to 56 members can be appointed by the military. Recent tary. Themilitary insertedaclauseontheeligibilityfor the membersoflowerhouseelectedfrom thevoters, Thepresithe headofstateandleadgovernment. - the righttoappointaquarteroftotalmembersboth the militaryofficers. the constitution. This is because it is necessary to obtain tion and hold a general election by 2010. Accordingly, the tion. Ontheotherhand,National DemocraticLeague, the Union Solidarity and Development Party, for the elec- Developments most 168membersare electedfrom provinces whileup prevent AungSanSuuKyi, whosehusbandandchildren president stipulatingaperson, whosespouseorchildren announcedinFebruary2008thatit military government more than75%ofthemembersbothchambers,provid- military draftedthesemi-democraticconstitution.Thecon- in theLowerHouseandUpperare reserved for ing themilitaryvetopowertoamendconstitution. in November2010.Themilitary created apro-military party, bers of the upper house elected from the voters, one from house wasintendedtorepresent thepublic.Yet, thetwo led byAungSanSuuKyi,boycotted theelection.In The constitution stipulates that thepresident would be The militaryheldanationalreferendum inMay2008 The military government heldthefirstnationalelection The militarygovernment Further, themilitaryprovided itselfwithavetotoamend Myanmar wasamilitaryauthoritarianregime fornearly STATE OF DEMOCRACIES IN ASIA: LESSONS FROM INDONESIA, PHILIPPINES, MALAYSIA, MYANMAR, THAILAND AND CAMBODIA 11 -
43 The The 41 The Western The Western 42 A more fundamental cause was the was cause fundamental A more This spread dissatisfactions among among dissatisfactions This spread 39 40 General elections for the Lower House have to be have to be Lower House the for elections General Today, Malaysia is a semi-democratic regime. Malaysia regime. Malaysia is a semi-democratic Today, There were additional factors which drove the govern the - additional factors which drove were There Doko Nenpo [Almanac of Current Affairs in Asia] 2008 (Ajia Keizai Kenkyujo. Affairs Doko Nenpo [Almanac of Current - prov 13 from elected members 26 with members 70 has the ask can minister prime The years. five every held by the government.the by its predecessor, the Alliance Party. It could maintain its rule the Alliance Party. its predecessor, inces and 44 members appointed by the king. is a constitutional monarchy with a parliamentary system. is a constitutional monarchy 39. Toshihiro Kudo, “Nisennananen no Myanma [Myanmar in 2007]” in Ajia 39. Toshihiro National Front, consisting from the United Malay National consisting from National Front, Lower House. It has the bicameral system, with Lower with Lower Lower House. It has the bicameral system, Upper the Negara, Dewan the over superiority House who are House. The Lower House has 222 members of the the tenure King to solve the Lower House before among competition been has There expires. House Lower Opportunity,” Journal of Democracy 23:4, 107-111. Opportunity,” reliance and came “to wish to reengage with the West.” came “to wish to reengage and reliance rice and cooking oil, which were indispensable for ordinary for ordinary indispensable oil, which were rice and cooking than exceeded more monthly rate of inflation people. The ment to initiate and complete the transition. They were complete the transition. They were ment to initiate and the Westerngovernment countries. The from pressure Nature of Regime Malaysia: Any Chances for Democratization from a from a Malaysia: Any Chances for Democratization the government from 1957 to 2018, including the time of the government from to sanctions by the western countries. the political parties. Yet, the Barisan Nasional (BN), the the the Barisan Nasional (BN), the political parties. Yet, the people against the government.the people against the suppressed the protest in September 2007 within several in September 2007 the protest suppressed Western tightened economic sanctions. countries other was fear of overreliance on China, which also relates on China, which also relates other was fear of overreliance countries had long imposed sanctions on Myanmar since countries had long imposed sanctions on on China. The leaders came to be concerned about over growing inflation, in particular, the increase in the price of in the price the increase particular, inflation, in growing elected by the first past the post system. The Upper House Organization (UMNO), Malaysia Chinese Association external factors. There were of two kinds. One was the of two kinds. One was the external were There factors. (MCA) and Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC), controlled (MIC), controlled (MCA) and Malaysian Indian Congress days by force. In response, the United State, EU and other the United In response, days by force. Semi-Democratic Regime? 40. Kudo, “Nisennananen no Myanma [Myanmar in 2007]”, 424-425. 41. Kudo, “Nisennananen no Myanma [Myanmar in 2007]”, 428-429. 42. Zin, Min and Brian Joseph “The Opening in Bruma: The Democrats’ 43. Zin and Joseph “The Opening in Bruma,”111. Tokyo. 2008), 419-420. Tokyo. 40% in April 2007. The prime minister selected from the Dewan Rakyat, the the Dewan Rakyat, the The prime minister selected from 1990s and as a result Myanmar came to economically rely Myanmar came to economically rely 1990s and as a result
- 35 ” 37 Suppression intensified after the clash, Suppression 36 The direct policy decision which triggered triggered which decision policy direct The 38 Htin Kyaw, a government former official and a close and a close a governmentofficial former Htin Kyaw, It is fair to say that Myanmar began to make transitions One is an economic crisis. One event which prompted One is an economic crisis. One event which prompted The other problem is continuing conflicts with minor is continuing conflicts with minor The other problem The new government faces two major problems. One The new government faces two major problems. The NDL participated in the second general election in the second general election The NDL participated Bazar, Bangladesh.” Bazar, Bangladesh,” 1. Bazar, held in November 2015 and won 255 seats in the Lower held in November 2015 keeps armistice only with half of the minority militants and keeps armistice only with half of the minority became intensified after the clash between the Rohingya became intensified after the clash between before the clash. the before ity in both chambers. President Sein accepted the defeat President ity in both chambers. thousands of is how to deal with the situation in which 35. For example, New York Times, August 25, 2017. Asahi Shimbun, Au- 35. For example, New York Cox’s to mission response rapid OHCHR of report “Mission UNHCR, 36. Cox’s to mission response rapid OHCHR of report “Mission UNHCR, 37. 38. Seekins, Donald. “Myanmar in 2007,” Asian Survey 49:1, 170. House and 135 seats in the Upper House, obtaining major House, obtaining in the Upper House and 135 seats the Rakine and fled from Rohingya people became refugee militants and Myanmar security forces in the Rakine State. militants and Myanmar security forces Independence Army. Independence Army. Relevant Factors the military government hold the national referendum was the military government national referendum hold the against the government of mass protest in Sep- the spread 2007. tember to a semi-democratic regime in 2008 when the military in 2008 when the military to a semi-democratic regime the Rohingya returning to normal lives and livelihoods in the Rohingya returning and livelihoods in to normal lives northern in Rakhine almost impossible. the future this protest was the raise of the price of fuel in August was the raise of the price of fuel in August this protest State to Bangladesh since August 2017. There existed dis- There State to Bangladesh since August 2017. Sein, who served as the prime minister under the military minister under the served as the prime Sein, who stitutional referendum. There were several factors which which factors several were There referendum. stitutional sellor of Myanmar and the foreign minister. the foreign sellor of Myanmar and announced in February 2008 to hold the national con- and promised peaceful transfer of the power to NDL. peaceful transfer and promised in March Kyi, became the president aide to Aung San Suu suppression the that is often considered It time. long a contributed to this transition. ethnic groups in near the boarders. The government government The in near the boarders. ethnic groups such as Kachin with some militant groups confrontation crimination against the Rohingya people in Myanmar for in Myanmar for crimination against the Rohingya people election, the USDP obtained more than 70% of the seats in than 70% of the seats USDP obtained more election, the February 2011, Thein After the election, in each chamber. government, the new president. became 2016. Aung San Suu Kyi herself became the State Coun- 2016. Aung San Suu destroying the villages to the point that “the possibility of villages to the point that “the possibility of the destroying gust 26, 2017. Yet, UNHCR reports that suppression had begun even had begun even that suppression reports UNHCR Yet, HARUKATA TAKENAKA 12 46. Case, William “Malaysiain2013:ABeneightedElectionDay,”46. Case,William Asian 45. Nakamura, Masashi. “Nisenhachinen no Malaishia [Malaysia in 2009]” 44. Freedom House,“CountryReportMalaysis2018” first became clear in 2008. In the election of 2008, although first becameclearin2008.Intheelectionof2008,although 2013 generalelection,althoughPrimeMinisterNajibman- corruption of the government, cametowithdrawsupport corruption ofthegovernment, other istheurbanmiddleclass,whichwasagainst entations in1990s. In 2008,heagainhadbeen arrested ousted andarrested fortheallegationofhispersonalori- aged toobtainmajorityoftheseatsforUMNOthanks also triedtomodifythepro Bumiputrapolicies. and theprimeministerinApril2009.Heimplemented seats becausetheUMNOcouldnotretain supportfrom suspects withoutjudicialprocess aslongtwoyears.He hadsome eliminated liberalization of as his government Security Offenses (SecurityMeasures) Actin2012.Under the voterswithChineseandIndianorigins,whocameto the BNsustainedmajorityinLowerHouse,itcould tion ofoppositionleadersandunfairdistributionseats through control thegovernment ofmassmedia,prosecu- the NSA it was possible for the government to imprison the NSA it was possible for the government the NationalSecurityAct(NSA)andreplaced itwiththe then thedeputyprimeminister, becamethesuccessor third oftheseatsinthiselection.FormerDeputy Anwar the People’s Alliance, consisting from different opposition favored native Malays and indigenous minorities. from theBN. from theprimeminister’s positioninApril.NajibRazak, from thepresident ofUMNOinMarch 2009andresigned for hispersonalorientationsandatthetimeofelection Developments many years.There were twofactors.Forone,theBN lost pletely fairandfree. prime ministerunderPrimeMinisterMahathirbutwas political parties,succeededinobtainingmore thanone not obtaintwothird majority, whichitusedtosecure over Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. He stepped down Prime MinisterAbdullahAhmadBadawi.Hesteppeddown Survey, 54:1, 56–63 in favoroftheBN. be wary of the Bumiputra policies which the government be waryoftheBumiputra policies whichthegovernment bin Ibraham did lead the PR. He had served as the deputy he wasintheprocess oftrials. Kenkyujo. Tokyo. 2009),311-340. in AjiaDokoNenpo[AlmanacofCurrent Affairs inAsia]2009(AjiaKeizai https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/malaysia The opposition bonded under the Pakatan Rakyat (PR), The result oftheelectionweakenedpower ofthe Yet, thePRcontinuedtoincrease itssupport.Inthe In recent years,theBNpowerhasgraduallyeroded. It 46
44 Thus,electionshavenotbeencom- 45 The Tokyo. 2015),350-374. Tokyo. 2015),363.. 49. Wall StreetJuly2,2015.https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB101 Journal 48. Kaneko,Nao.“NisenhachinennoMalaishia [Malaysiain2015]”Ajia 47. Iga,Tsukara. “NisenjyusannennoMalaishia[Malaysiain2013]”Ajia democratization inarecent changeinMalaysianpolitics. drastically changedwhenascandalinvolvingtheprime decided inJanuary2018thattheywouldpresent the financial resources were channeledthrough from 1Malay- clear if the democratization advances further in Malaysia as clear ifthedemocratizationadvancesfurtherinMalaysiaas votes thantheUMNO. after theelection,inJuly2015,politicallandscape sition partiescomposingPHsucceededinobtainingthe account. sia Development Berhad (1MDB), a government managed sia Development Berhad (1MDB), a government will terminatethemalpracticeofpoliticalprosecution is there are manypoliticaluncertainties.OneisifPrimeMin- took the primeministerandchangeofgovernment which hadcausedthereorganization ofthePRintoPaka- to theunequaldistributionofseats,PRobtainedmore the nextgeneralelection. tan Harapan (PH), the Alliance of Hope, PH in 2015. the primeminister. FormerPrimeMinisterMahathiralso It isthedivisionamongpoliticalelites.FormerPrime Relevant Factors place forthefirsttimeinmore than60 years. majority. Following theelection,Mahathirwasappointedas minister was reported. political party, thePPBM,MalaysianUnitedIndigenous House. In May, the general election was held and the oppo Party. Mahathir’s PPBM for one month and dissolved the Lower Minister Mahathir’s dissentwiththePrimeMinisterNajib Mahathir astheuntiedcandidateforprimeministerin Mahathir lefttheUMNOandinSeptemberformedanew 30211234592774869404581083700187014570 in question. ister Mahathirkeepsthepromise hehadmadetotransfer investment fund,totheprimeminister’s personalbank inner disputestookplaceamongoppositionparties, his premiership toAnwar. Inaddition,ifthePHgovernment 50. Kaneko.“Nisenhachinen noMalaishia[Malaysiain2015], 355-356. began criticizing the prime minister. In February 2016 Doko Nenpo [Almanacof Current Affairs in Asia] 2015 (Ajia Keizai Kenkyujo. Doko Nenpo [Almanacof Current Affairs in Asia] 2014 (Ajia Keizai Kenkyujo. This isaprogress toward democracyyetitisnotso Although PrimeMinisterNajibmaintainedhisposition It ispossibletopointoutafactorcommonthe In April2018,PrimeMinisterNajibbannedactivitiesof In the meantime, after the general election of 2013, 49 Protests spread requesting the resignation of 47 48 Wall Street reported Journal that 50 It It - STATE OF DEMOCRACIES IN ASIA: LESSONS FROM INDONESIA, PHILIPPINES, MALAYSIA, MYANMAR, THAILAND AND CAMBODIA 13 President Duterte while intent on development on the President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, then the vice president, president, vice the then Arroyo, Macapagal Gloria Benigno Aquino III, a son of President Aquino, became became Aquino, President of son a III, Aquino Benigno Joseph Estrada, a movie star and the vice president and the vice president a movie star Joseph Estrada, became the new president in the same month. The rule in the same month. The rule became the new president become the president in 2001 revealed the fragility of fragility of the in 2001 revealed president become the ident spread and anti-president sentiment spread in the in the sentiment spread anti-president and ident spread in May 2004 but in June 2005 the electoral fraud, in which June 2005 the electoral fraud, 2004 but in in May President declared the state of emergency, arresting the the arresting the state of emergency, declared President 2016 as the in May Duterte, the mayor of the Davao City, Finally, President Estrada accepted that he would resign accepted that he would resign Estrada President Finally, Philippines through more development of infrastructure of infrastructure development more Philippines through reduce and dealers drug eliminate to trying been has He next president has made the Philippines semi-democratic. next president not function to cause change in the government. was unstable. She was re-elected Arroyo under President military as well. In July 2005, some leaders of the military military as well. In July 2005, some leaders in February 2006 coup Further, the resignation. requested to see the but it is hard managed to complete her tenure Philippines under her adminis- military during her tenure, requesting the resignation of President Estrada spread in spread Estrada of President the resignation requesting the that clear become had it As November. in president the President ordered illegal counting of votes for herself, for herself, illegal counting of votes ordered the President tration was semi-democratic. Aquino reduced in June 2010. President the next president the Philippines. The impeachment trial began against the the Philippines. The January in the president be able to impeach trial might not stable and it is fair to say that the political regime under this stable and it is fair to say that the political regime - against the pres administration. Again, public movements administration was democratic. Yet, the election of Rodrigo the election administration was democratic. Yet, and became the president in June 1998. In the fall of 2000, in and became the president - ille from profits received Estrada President that scandal a and the military had after important ministers had resigned and on decentralization has begun so called “Drug War.” “Drug War.” so called begun has on decentralization and came to be suspected, undermining the legitimacy of the came to be suspected, undermining the Arroyo President opposition leaders without due process. the more fiscal condition through corruption and improved collection of taxes. The Aquino administration was effective gal gambles surfaced. In response, public movements public movements In response, gal gambles surfaced. of the previous government, won the presidential election government, presidential the won previous the of 2001, movements against the president had intensified. had intensified. the president 2001, movements against d’état plan by the military was disclosed. In response, the response, In disclosed. was military the by plan d’état in her administration. respected democratic norms were Given the military involvement in the installation of the demanded his resignation. The military’s decision was decision was The military’s demanded his resignation. did institutions democratic means that This fact decisive. democracy in the Philippines. democracy drug addicts. While the purpose may be appropriate, the drug addicts. While the purpose may be appropriate, Arroyo presidency and the lack of civilian control over the and the lack of civilian control presidency Arroyo - - They usually argue argue usually They 51 After the Marcos regime had collapsed in 1987 and and 1987 in collapsed had regime Marcos the After Yet, Malaysian political development fits well with the the fits well with political development Malaysian Yet, Today, the Philippines is a semi-democratic regime. regime. the Philippines is a semi-democratic Today, The recent change in the government change in the The recent took place on Boston: Beacon Press.1967. 51. Lipset, Seymour Martin. Political Man. Doubleday. Garden City, N.Y. N.Y. City, Garden 51. Lipset, Seymour Martin. Political Man. Doubleday. in which María Gloria Macaraeg Macapagal-Arroyo had had in which María Gloria Macaraeg Macapagal-Arroyo Malaysia as demonstrated by the gradual decline in the by the gradual decline in the Malaysia as demonstrated Philippines is a presidential system with a bicameral system. bicameral a with system presidential a is Philippines Philippines became democratic. Yet, since then democ then since Yet, democratic. became Philippines ularly elected, does not respect democratic rules. First, he ularly elected, does not respect media which is critical of the president. Third, he does not Third, media which is critical of the president. the rule under the separation of power system. He respect members of the Lower House are elected under the first elected under the first members of the Lower House are a elected through past the post system. The Senators are Duterte, though pop- multi-entry ballot system. President middle class in Malaysia and its alienation from the UMNO. from middle class in Malaysia and its alienation power of the BN. It reflects the long-term consequence of consequence long-term the BN. It reflects power of the rights and eventually achieves democratization. rights and eventually racy in the Philippines has been unstable. The process process The unstable. been has Philippines the in racy Developments Nature of Regime Philippines: Between a Democratic Regime and a Regime and a Democratic a Philippines: Between to drugs. Thus, human rights are abused. Second, he abused. Second, he to drugs. Thus, human rights are the Western countries, which have achieved democratic countries, which have achieved democratic the Western the backbone of the long-term evolutional changes in long-term evolutional changes in the backbone of the that the economic development expands the middle class. that the economic development the election of 2018. the election which development, theory of the democratic traditional litera traditional The addressed. fully not has paper this changes in focusing on approach takes a structural ture Such development is more similar to the experiences of of experiences the to similar more is development Such socio-economic development, in particular, the rise of the socio-economic development, in particular, society to explain democratization. to explain society - allows abuses of power of the police without legal pro and his creation of a new party were decisive f in causing decisive f in new party were of a and his creation constitutional mean in May 2018. cess against drug dealers and those who are addicted addicted cess against drug dealers and those who are discharged the Chief of Supreme Court through an extra Court through discharged the Chief of Supreme does not respect freedom of speech suppressing mass mass suppressing of speech freedom does not respect development over many years. Corazon Aquino had become the president in 1987, the in 1987, the Corazon Aquino had become the president Semi-Democratic Regime 1960. Moore, Barrington. Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. Democracy. Barrington. Social Origins of Dictatorship and 1960. Moore, The president is directly elected from the people. The most elected from is directly The president The middle class then asks for more freedom and political freedom asks for more The middle class then HARUKATA TAKENAKA 14 The Senateconsistsfrom membersselectedfrom different Thailand: Military Strikes BackwithAuthoritarianThailand: Military democratic regimes. difficulties to remove thepresident alsomakepresidents groups insocietyandthemembersare electedbyvoting 2018, the supreme court judges decided to remove the veto power against the legislation. It has power topropose chief justicewhowascriticalofPresident Duterte,despite violating thecyberlibellawandfordefamingabusiness ocratic norms.Heovertlydisrespects dueprocess and cess betweenJuly2016andDecember2017. ship betweenthenature ofthepresidency andstabilityof social groups. Thecandidatesare chosenfrom different sure from themilitaryonPresident Estradatoresign. The and informationasheincreases pressures onthemass allows killing of drug dealers and drug addicts without the budget.Suchanature of thePhilippinepresident likely the Pilipino president has relatively strong power. It has the fact that the constitution allows the chief justice could tion, wasarrested bytheNationalInvestigationBureau for taking appropriate legalprocedures. Asaresult, allegedly Nature ofRegime Regime Relevant Factors presidency confirm theprevious findingsonthe relation- made peoplelesssusceptibletounconstitutionalpres - pines. It is the nature of the presidency in the Philippines. It person. Also, the independence of thesupreme court is media, which had been critical of the current administra ruary 2019,MariaRessa,theCEOofRappler, aninternet media criticalagainstthemassmedia.Forexample,inFeb- means heusesisquestionablewhenvaluedagainstdem- more than12000peoplewere killedwithout judicialpro- President Duterte.TheArroyo presidency andtheDuterte now underthreat underthecurrent InMay government. President Dutertegivesthreats tothefreedom ofspeech is a constitutional monarchy. It adopts a bicameral system. is hard toremove thepresident ofthePhilippines.Further, budget andcanrefuse changes whichincrease thesizeof behind theinstabilityofpoliticalregime inthePhilip- be onlyremoved through impeachmentbytheSenate. 52. Freedom House. “Country Report Philippines 2018” https://www.face- less constrained to resort to undemocratic practices as book.com/events/2527154824182421/ Thailand has just adopted a new constitution in 2017. It It is possible to point out one underlying element 52 Further, - Thai regime hasbeenseesawingbetweenamilitaryauthor Thailand isanauthoritarianregime. 1-6. first pastthepostsystemandproportional represen- of the constitution. government. Giventhelackofaccountabilityprime government. election inMarch rigged 2019.Themilitarygovernment of politicalregimes. Currently, Thailandisanauthoritarian very unstable. Thailand has experienced allthree types constitution of1997.Thiswasthemostdemocraticcon- approved by the Lower House. It adopts a parliamentary among thecandidates. and lack of protection of political rights in election, today, stitution hasinterimclausestipulatingthewaytonominate system astheLowerHousehaspowertonominate stayed inpowerwithsupportfrom artificiallyforgedmajor stitution inThaihistory. Ithadadoptedabicameralsystem and theelectoralsystem]. sembly andtheelectoralsystem],IDESkuea [IDESquare], February 2019, with membersofthetwohouseswere electedfrom people. the primeministerforfirstfiveyearshaveintroduction to beamemberofthenationalassembly. Further, thecon- the primeminister. Yet, theprimeminsterdoesnothave tation system.TheSenatehaspowertodelaylegislations the voterstovoteforpro-military party, andinvalidat- the generalelectiontoassistmilitarybackedpolitical the membersofLowerHouseandsenators. tration, thecaucus of theThaiassembly adopted thenew It adopted the parliamentary system and the Prime Minister It adoptedtheparliamentarysystemandPrimeMinister Developments minister tothepeople,militarydominanceinpolitics, party, inflatingthenumber oftotal votes casted,pressuring prime minister. finallyheldthegeneral Hisgovernment military, madethecoupd’étatin2014andbecame minister has to be nominated by a caucus consisting from regime. Itwasdemocratic at thebeginningofthiscentury House are elected the electoral system combining the House, whoinessencewere appointed bythemilitary Financial crisis,undertheChavalitYongchaiyudh adminis- ity intheLowerHouseandfrom the membersoftheUpper ing many votes. After the election, Prime Minister Prayuth itarian regime andasemi-democraticregime. but thedemocraticregime broke downin2006.Sincethen 54. Imaizumi,NisenjyunananenKenpo noGikaiSenkyoSeidokara 53. Imaizumi,Shinya“Nisenjyunananen KenponoGikaiSenkyoSeido Kento [Examinationofthe2017Constitution asregard totheassembly kara noKento[Examinationofthe2017 Constitutionasregard totheas- In thiscentury, politicalregimes inThailandhavebeen In themiddle of thefinancial crisis hit by the Asian Prayuth Chan-ocha,thesupreme commanderofthe 54 During the interim period, the prime 53 ThemembersoftheLower - - STATE OF DEMOCRACIES IN ASIA: LESSONS FROM INDONESIA, PHILIPPINES, MALAYSIA, MYANMAR, THAILAND AND CAMBODIA 15
- 59 The The The 64 62 Under the new constitution, the half the half new constitution, Under the 58
After the collapse of the PPP government,PPP the of collapse the After After Prime Minister Samak had lost his After Prime Minister Samak had lost his 60 63 61 In the meantime, the constitutional court disbanded constitutional court disbanded In the meantime, the In May 2011, Abhisit government dissolved the Lower The PPP governments, however, were obstructed by obstructed by were The PPP governments, however, lution, the constitution was amended to re-introduce the the lution, the constitution was amended to re-introduce land in 2007]” in Ajia Doko Nenpo [Almanac of Current Affairs in Asia] 2008, Affairs land in 2007]” in Ajia Doko Nenpo [Almanac of Current Doko Nenpo [Almanac of Current Affairs in Asia] 2012. Ajia Keizai Kenkyujo. Affairs Doko Nenpo [Almanac of Current 58. Aizawa, Nobuhiro and Keiichiro Ooizumi. “Nisennananen no Tai [Thai- Ooizumi. “Nisennananen no Tai and Keiichiro 58. Aizawa, Nobuhiro 270- in 2007]” [Thailand no Tai “Nisennananen and Ooizumi, 59. Aizawa became the prime minister and lead the coalition. became the prime minister and lead the 60. Nihon Keizai Shimbun, January 29, 2008. 61. Nihon Keizai Shimbun, September 10, 2008. 62. Nihon Keizai Shimbun, September 18, 2008. 63. Nihon Keizai Shimbun, December 3, 2008. [Thailand in 2011]” in Ajia 64. Imaizumi, Sinya. “Nisenjyuichinen no Tai in December 2008 for violating electoral regulations in the regulations electoral for violating in December 2008 Lower House. Power Party agreed with small political parties to form a a form to parties political small with agreed Party Power House and called for a general election. Before the disso- House and called for a general election. Before 271. part time job. position, Somchai Wongsawat, brother in law of Thaksin, in law of Thaksin, brother position, Somchai Wongsawat, prime minister. for appearing in a TV show for violating the constitutional constitutional the violating for show TV a in appearing for the Thai Rak Thai Party under the pretext of making illegal under the pretext the Thai Rak Thai Party the constitutional court. In September 2008, the constitu- the constitutional court. In September 2008, Sundaravej guiltytional court first sentenced Prime Minister the new constitution was approved by the national refer by the national was approved the new constitution the prime minister of a coalition government. the Lower House were to be elected under the Complete Complete the under to be elected the Lower House were the members of the from the prime minister nominated to the Thai Rak Thai Party won the election, obtaining 233 to the Thai Rak Thai Party won the election, Serial System and Proportionate Representation System. System. Representation Serial System and Proportionate system as the electoral system for the Lower House. society through appointment by the selection committee the selection committee appointment by society through The members of officials. court as well as other supreme seats out of 480 total seats. In January 2008, the People’s the People’s seats out of 480 total seats. In January 2008, campaigns in the general election of 2006 in May 2007. campaigns in the general election of 2006 clause which prohibited the prime minister undertaking a clause which prohibited general election was held in July. In the election, the Pheu the election, the In July. in held was election general endum in August. endum in consisted from politicians opposed to Thaksin, became politicians opposed to Thaksin, became consisted from electoral system combining the FPTP system and the PR of the senate had to be chosen from different groups in in groups different from chosen be to had senate the of the constitutional court and judges of consisting from constitutional court, however, banned the PPP as a whole as PPP the banned however, court, constitutional coalition and its president, Samak Sundaravej became the coalition and its president, 2007 election. 2007 Ajia Keizai Kenkyujo. Tokyo. 2008, 272-273. Ajia Keizai Kenkyujo. Tokyo. Abhisit Vejjajiva, the head of the Democratic Party, which the head of the Democratic Party, Abhisit Vejjajiva, Tokyo. 2012, 265-266. Tokyo. The constitution adopted a parliamentary system with with system parliamentary a adopted constitution The The government held a general election in December 2007. Power Party which was the successor party The People’s - He also sued a number of massnumber a sued also He After the sale of the equity had After the sale of the equity had 55 57 In fact the prime minister’s family family In fact the prime minister’s 56 In January 2006, when the prime minister’s family sold In January 2006, when the prime minister’s While Prime Minister Thaksin was successful in keep- While Prime Minister Thaksin was successful While politics paralyzed, the military made a coup While politics paralyzed, the military made a coup The first general election under the new constitution constitution new the under election general first The Keizai Kenkyujo. Tokyo. 2007, 285-286. Keizai Kenkyujo. Tokyo. 55. Asahi Shimbun, November 18, 2003. 56. The Nation (Thailand), January 24, 2006. [Thailand in no Tai 57. Aoki, Maki and Shinichi Shigetomi,.“Nisenrokunen he and his family evaded tax payments from profits his his profits from he and his family evaded tax payments - cre the Shin group, leading an IT conglomerate, billionaire by Thaksin Sinawatra won 248 seats out of 500 seats in by Thaksin Sinawatra become apparent, a strong opposition movement took opposition movement took a strong become apparent, ing popularity, he was inclined not to respect democratic democratic he was inclined not to respect ing popularity, investment in Thailand. 2006]” in Ajia Doko Nenpo [Almanac of Current Affairs in Asia] 2007. Ajia Affairs 2006]” in Ajia Doko Nenpo [Almanac of Current norms. For example, he tried to expand control over the over the control norms. For example, he tried to expand media companies criticizing the government. party during the election. party during per villages and rescheduling debts payments for farmers. per villages and rescheduling gov- Thaksin the of inauguration the after Shortly media. policies as a system in which people can receive medical in which people can receive policies as a system paying taxes and skirt amount the restrictions on foreign on foreign paying taxes and skirt amount the restrictions mander, Surayud Churanont, as the prime minister. The The minister. Surayud Churanont, as the prime mander, mining its legitimacy. The constitutional court judged the the judged court constitutional The legitimacy. its mining place against the government. Prime Minister response, In family had made. for making disadvantageous report for the prime minister’s for the prime minister’s for making disadvantageous report for Democratic Reform, installed a former supreme com- supreme a former installed Reform, Democratic for the equity of the Shin corporation to a foreign company, company, foreign the equity of the Shin corporation to a if a question arose Holdings of Singapore, the Temasek the prime minister’s family, held a large share, were fired fired were held a large share, family, the prime minister’s the prime minister in February 2001. He introduced such February 2001. He introduced the prime minister in the Lower House. Thaksin, a former police officer and a and officer police former a Thaksin, House. Lower the the Lower House. the Lower the major opposition parties boycotted the election, under election, the boycotted parties opposition major the was nominated by the Lower House from the members of from by the Lower House was nominated lead Thai Rhak Thai Party January 2001, the was held in Such policies contributed to sustaining popularity for the to sustaining popularity for the Such policies contributed service with 30 baths, creating funds worth of million baths funds creating service with 30 baths, ated the Thai Rhak Thai Party in July 1998. He became Thai Party in July 1998. He became ated the Thai Rhak cabinet. In the general election held in February 2005, the cabinet. In the general election held in February in which a company ernment of ITV, in 2001, the reporters carefully designed the transaction so that it could avoid the transaction so that it could avoid designed carefully government and in July 2007 a new constitution drafted election unconstitutional in May and demanded the gov- in May election unconstitutional ernment again. to hold a general election election in April. Thai Rahk Thai Party won 460 seats. Yet, election in April. Thai Rahk Thai Party won 460 seats. Yet, d’état in September 2006. The military junta, the Council Thai Rahk Thai Party obtained 377 seats. Thai Rahk Thai Party obtained 377 seats. Thaksin dissolved the Lower House and held a general general a held and House Lower the dissolved Thaksin HARUKATA TAKENAKA 16 Thai Party, thesuccessorpartytoPeople’s PowerParty, The billpassedtheLowerHousebutwasrejected inthe Thai Party. In January 2015, the NLA impeached Yingluck 70. NihonKeizaiShimbun, January1,2015. Tokyo. 2015,328-329. dissolution of the Lower House as well as the suspension Council was unconstitutional. guilty forgettinginvolvedinpoliticalactivities. obtained 265seatsoutof500seats.Yingluch Shinawatra, of theconstitution2007whilesettingupamilitaryjunta, obtained thenationalemergencyprerogative withwhich constitution wasissuedinthesamemonthandPrayuth expelled from her position by the constitutional court as cal leaders including Thaksin. As aresult, strong opposition assembly, the National Legislative Assembly (NLA), was set approved thedraftinAugust 2016.Althoughtherequest appointed bythemilitaryjunta,proposed adraftofthe amended thebilltoexpandeligibilityofpoliti- and suspendedherpoliticalactivitiesforfiveyears. submitted thebilltopardon thosewhowere sentenced strengthen hisdiscretion causedsomedelay, Senate inNovember. with otherparties. who wasputon the top of the PR list and Thaksin’s sister, tion movementagainstthecabinetasPheuThaiParty the process of the bill deliberation, the Pheu Thai Party the military government continuedtosuppress thePheuthe militarygovernment tution came to be enforced in April 2017. In the meantime, military imposedthemartiallawandthenannounced movement occurred against the Yingluck government. 2018]” inAjiaDokoNenpo[Almanacof Current Affairs inAsia]2018.Ajia up withitsmembers appointed bytheNCPS.Theinterim new constitutionbyMarch 2016.Thenationalreferendum 2013]” inAjiaDokoNenpo[AlmanacofCurrent Affairs inAsia]2014.Ajia National CouncilforPeaceandSecurity. Thecommander in chiefandthechairmanofNCPS,PrayuthChan-ocha, 69. NihonKeizaiShimbun,April7,2017. 68. Aoki, Maki and Shinya Imaizumi.“Nisenjyuhachinen no Tai [Thailand in it judgedherappointmentpolicyontheNationalSecurity 67. Okabe-Aoki,Maki.“Nisenjyuyonen noTai [Thailandin2014]”Ajia 66. NihonKeizaiShimbun,November 12, 2013. 65. For this bill, see Aizawa, Nobuhiro. “Nisenjyusannen no Tai [Thailand in became theprimeministerandformedacoalitioncabinet became theprimeministerinAugust.Theinterimnational by anothermilitarycoupd’étatinthesamemonth.The by the king Vajiralongkorn to revise the constitution to he couldissueanylegal,administrativeandjudicialorder. Keizai Kenkyujo.Tokyo. 2019,284-285. Doko Nenpo[AlmanacofCurrent Affairs inAsia]2014.AjiaKeizai Kenkyujo. Keizai Kenkyujo.Tokyo. 2014,306-307.. The draftingcommitteeofthenewconstitution, Then, inMay2014,PrimeMinisterYingluck was In 2013, the Yingluck government radicalizedopposi- In 2013,theYingluck government 66
67 This decision was followed 69 theconsti- 65 During 70
68 Thai newspaper published a numberofopinions from the 77. Aoki,Maki.“Nisenrokunen noTai [Thailandin2006]”AjiaDoko Nen- 76. NihonKeizaiShimbun,September 22,2004. 75. NihonKeizaiShimbun,April9,2019. 74. TheGuardian, May8,2019,NewYork May9,2019. Times, 73. TheGuardian, March 25,2019. 72. Independent,May10,2019. 79. Nation,October 4,2006. 78. Nation,September23,2006. 71. Okabe-Aoki,Maki.“NisenjyuyonennoTai [Thailandin2014]”Ajia Tokyo. 2015,328-329. d’état in2006,publicopinionpollsdemonstratedabout deprived legitimacyfrom theregime. evasion ofproper report ofhisassetsandfavoringcom- vention intopolitics. contributed to this transformation. They are corruption of thecoupd’état,andwasverytolerantmilitary criticized views of the “Westerners,” who were critical authoritarian regime. There are twomajorfactorswhich and from allmembersoftheSenateandsucceededin and theriseofanauthoritarianregime. Followingthecoup actors, whojustifiedorevenencouragedmilitaryinterven- administration. some politicalactorswhichencouragedthemilitaryinter second largest seats, 115. The military rigged the elec- seats, while the Phalang Pracharat, a political party set the beginningofthiscentury. Yet, intoamilitary itturned the majorityofLowerHouseafterriggedelection tary candidates tion, contributedtothebreakdown ofademocratic regime tion, through suchmeansasvotebuying, tion atthebeginning of May. ThePTPcamefirstwith 136 80% oftheBangkokcitizens welcomed thecoup. Relevant Factors po [AlmanacofCurrent Affairs in Asia]2006. Ajia KeizaiKenkyujo. Tokyo. pany inmakingassistancetoMyanmar. readers supportingthecoup. maintaining powerinJune2019. 2007, 281-282. under the Thaksin government, which undermined theunder the Thaksin government, up bythemilitaryjuntainMarch 2018, Prime MinisterThaksinwassuspectedofbeinginvolved Prime Minister, Prayuth Chan-ocha, forged a support from March 2019.Itofficially announcedthe result oftheelec- in anumberofcorruptions.Otherscandalsincludehis invalid, intervention, condemningthecorruptionofThaksin Doko Nenpo[AlmanacofCurrent Affairs inAsia]2014.AjiaKeizaiKenkyujo. legitimacy ofthedemocraticregime andsemi-loyaltyof Thailand onceexperiencedademocraticregime at The military government held a general election inThe military government Besides the selling oftheequity of the Shin Corps. Further, semi-loyaltyof the intellectualsandpolitical 73 pressure onthevoterstovoteforpromili- 79 74 andinflatingthetotalnumberofvotes. 78 Further, apoliticaleditor 76 Suchcorruption 72 71 makingballots obtainedthe 77 A 75 -
STATE OF DEMOCRACIES IN ASIA: LESSONS FROM INDONESIA, PHILIPPINES, MALAYSIA, MYANMAR, THAILAND AND CAMBODIA 17
84 83 After the elec- 85 The CPP troops defeated the troops under defeated the troops The CPP troops 82 In July 1998, the general election was held and the In July 1998, the general election was held and the In the end FUNCIPEC and PP agreed to set up a coa- and PP agreed In the end FUNCIPEC Inner disputes in the government between the FUN- The UNTAC organized a general election in May 1993. a general election in organized The UNTAC the new con- The constitutional assembly approved lition government Ranarit, who with two prime ministers. Keizai Kenkyujo. Tokyo. 1999, 227. Keizai Kenkyujo. Tokyo. 82. Nihon Keizai Shimbun, July 6, 1997. Sorpong Peou, “Cambodia in 83. Asahi Shimbun, August 12, 1997. 84. Amakawa, Naoko. “Senkyujuhachinen no Kanbojia [Cambodia in 85. Amakawa, “Senkyujuhachine no Kanbojia”, 226. he would seek the resignation of the First Prime Minister Minister Prime First the of resignation the seek would he became the second prime minister. Cambodia became the Kingdom bake to the throne. initially refused to accept the result of the election, implicat- election, the of result the accept to refused initially democratic accepting actors of political prospects grim ing Minister Hun Sen consented to provision of a pardon to to of a pardon Minister Hun Sen consented to provision - Revolu party of the People’s Party (CPP), the successor FUNCIPEC. Ranarit, who was abroad at the time. In effect, Prime Minis- at the time. In effect, Ranarit, who was abroad Ranarit, who was sentenced guilty in the military court, so Before the election in face of international pressure Prime the election in face of international pressure Before number of seats, winning 58 seats and Cambodia People’s People’s Cambodia and seats 58 winning seats, of number norms. prime minister. Hun Sen, who had been the prime minister prime minister. prime minister in the national assembly. In the meantime, In the meantime, prime minister in the national assembly. In the general election, FUNCIPEC obtained the largest largest obtained the election, FUNCIPEC In the general for the constitutional assembly. The UN security council council security UN The assembly. constitutional the for tionary Party came second, acquiring 51 seats. The CPP tionary Party came second, under the the CPP attack military installments and officers the FUNCIPEC. Prime Minister Hun Sen disclosed that that disclosed Sen Hun Prime Minister FUNCIPEC. the ter Hun Sen succeeded in expelling Ranarit as FUNCIPEC Ranarit. to arrest the military court issued the order tion, in November, the CPP and FUNCINPEC agreed to to the CPP and FUNCINPEC agreed tion, in November, that he could participate in the election. Second Prime Minister Hun Sen ordered the troops under the troops Second Prime Minister Hun Sen ordered stitution in September 1993. The constitution adopted adopted stitution in September 1993. The constitution set up a coalition government.up a set sole became the Sen Hun a constitutional monarchy and Prince Shianouk came and Prince Shianouk came a constitutional monarchy agreed to install Ung Huot, then the foreign minister, as the as minister, foreign the then Huot, Ung install to agreed came to lead the FUNCIPEC from 1988, became the first the became 1988, from FUNCIPEC the to lead came of the KPRP (and later the CPP) government since 1983, of Cambodia. 1997. The in July between the two groups confrontation CPP obtained 64 seats while FUNCINPEC won 43 seats. 43 won FUNCINPEC while seats 64 obtained CPP decided to set up the UNTAC in February 1992. set up the UNTAC decided to military and led to the however, CIPEC and CPP grew, first minister. In August, Ung Huot was elected as the first In August, Ung Huot was elected first minister. 1997: Back to Square One?” Asian Survey 38:1, 69-74. 1997: Back to Square in Asia] 1999. Ajia Affairs 1998]” in Ajia Doko Nenpo [Almanac of Current In 80 81 In case of the more recent coup d’état of 2014, Suthep coup recent more In case of the Cambodia experienced a long civil war following Cambodia experienced a long civil war following Today, Cambodia is also an authoritarian regime. Under an authoritarian regime. Cambodia is also Today, Doko Nenpo [Almanac of Current Affairs in Asia] 2015. Ajia Keizai Kenkyujo. Affairs Doko Nenpo [Almanac of Current 80. Okabe-Aoki, Maki “Nisenjyuyonen no Tai [Thailand in 2014]” in Ajia [Thailand in 2014]” in 80. Okabe-Aoki, Maki “Nisenjyuyonen no Tai holding all seats in the Lower House. how to topple Thaksin regime. how to topple Thaksin 81. Bangkok Post, June 23, 2014. bodia People’s Party, has installed one party dictatorship, has installed one Party, bodia People’s becomes the prime minister and forms the cabinet. The the cabinet. The becomes the prime minister and forms into politics. In December 2013, Suthep asked Prayut to to Prayut asked Suthep 2013, December In politics. into Prince Sihanouk. In October 1991, the four parties signed Democratic Kampuchea (CGDK). The CGDK consisted Democratic Kampuchea (CGDK). The CGDK consisted for an Indepen- FUNCIPEC (the National United Front Kampuchea People’s Revolutionary Party governmentParty Revolutionary People’s Kampuchea person who commands support in the national assembly person who commands support in the national make a decision on which side the military should take. should side the military decision on which make a Developments It adopts a bicameral system consisting from the national from It adopts a bicameral system consisting Nature of Regime United Nations Transitional Authority in Cambodia (UNTAC) in Cambodia (UNTAC) Authority United Nations Transitional from three political groups, the group lead by Pol Pot, the Pot, Pol by lead group the groups, political three from to set up the constitutional assembly and hold a general to set up the constitutional assembly and hold a general the peace agreement in Paris. They agreed to the cease to the cease agreed They in Paris. agreement peace the the collapse of the Pol Pot regime in 1979 between the the between 1979 in regime Pot Pol the of collapse the the current 1993 constitution, Cambodia adopts a con- a adopts Cambodia constitution, 1993 current the supported by Vietnam and the Coalition Government of superior to the upper house. Although it holds elections, holds elections, superior to the upper house. Although it stitutional monarchy with a parliamentary system. The with a parliamentary system. The stitutional monarchy Cambodia: From a Semi-Democratic Regime to an Semi-Democratic Regime to an Cambodia: From a assembly and the upper house. The national assembly is assembly and the upper house. The national election under multi-party system to elect the members election under multi-party system to elect the members one headed by Son Sann, a former prime minister, and and one headed by Son Sann, a former prime minister, - pros political of because fair and free is longer no election of a major ecution of opposition leaders as well as banning Decemberin Party Rescue Cambodia the party, opposition cabinet rests on the confidence of the national assembly. the confidence of the national assembly. on cabinet rests cratic Reform Committee, seduced the military to intervene Committee, seduced cratic Reform 2017. After the election of 2018, the ruling party, Cam- party, 2017. After the election of 2018, the ruling fire, to delegate various administrative functions to the to delegate various administrative functions to the fire, dent, Neutral, Peaceful and Cooperative Cambodia) under Cooperative Cambodia) and Neutral, Peaceful dent, Tokyo. 2015, 329. Tokyo. Authoritarian Regime June, he admitted that he had been “consulting” Prayuth “consulting” been had he that admitted he June, Tahgsuban, who lead the opposition movement against against movement who lead the opposition Tahgsuban, Demo- a leader of People’s his supporters as Thaksin and HARUKATA TAKENAKA 18 Tokyo. 2005,255.Amakawa,Naoko.“Nisengonen noKanbojia[Cambodia Ajia DokoNenpo[AlmanacofCurrent Affairs inAsia]2003.AjiaKeizaiKen- 2005. 2003, The CPP obtained 73 seats. of July2008,itexpandeditsseatsto90. other partiesthrough politicalprosecution. Forexample, constitution tolowertheseatsnecessaryforcabinet general electionof2013.InOctober2012,SamRaincy ger positionvis-a-visotherparties. could win68seats.Thankstotheamendedconstitution, election. ChiaShim,theheadofCPP, became the of theUpperHousewouldbeselectedthrough indirect an opposition party, Sam Raincy Party for undermining his sion againsttheoppositionexpandedafterelection. to maintainconfidencefrom twothirds majoritytoasimple time. forthefirst the CPPcouldformone-partygovernment tion of the Upper House was one of the conditions agreed the constitutiontoinstallUpperHouse.Theintroduc- In November2015,theorder toarrest SamRaincywas prime minister while Ranarit became the chairperson of the prime ministerwhileRanaritbecamethechairpersonof petition becausetheCPPoftenthreatened membersof reputation andRaincywas sentencedguiltyinDecember majority. This putPrimeMinisterHunSeneveninastron- performed well,obtaining55seatsagainsttheCPP, which power until the 2008election. Inthe general election ofJuly president oftheUpperHouse. 2013]” inAjiaDokoNenpo[Almanacof Current Affairs inAsia]2013.Ajia Prime MinisterHunSensuedSamRaincy, theleaderof Kem Sohka,ahumanrightactivist,toformtheCambodia Party mergedwiththeHumanRightscreated by National Assembly. House wouldconsist from 61members.Most members National RescueParty(CNRP).Intheelection,CNRP issued andhisstatusasarepresentative wasmadevoidby by the two parties to form the government. TheUpper by thetwopartiestoformgovernment. 89. Hatshukano,Naomi.“Nisenjyusannen noKanbojia[Cambodiain 88. NaokoAmakawa“NisenyonennoKanbojia [Cambodiain2004]”Ajia 87. Amakawa,Naoko.“NisenhachinennoKanbojia[Cambodiain2008]” 86. Amakawa,Naoko.“NisensannennoKanbojia[Cambodiain2003]” Keizai Kenkyujo.Tokyo. 2014, 260. Keizai Kenkyujo.Tokyo. 2006,261. Doko Nenpo[AlmanacofCurrent Affairs inAsia]2004.AjiaKeizaiKenkyujo. Kenkyujo. Tokyo. 2009,214-232. in 2005]”AjiaDokoNenpo[Almanacof Current Affairs inAsia]2004.Ajia in AjiaDokoNenpo[AlmanacofCurrent Affairs inAsia]2008.AjiaKeizai kyujo. Tokyo. 2004,235. The politicaldominanceoftheCCPwanedin Since then,theCPPgraduallyconsolidatedpolitical In March 2006,thenationalassemblyamended In March 1999, the CPP and FUNCINPEC amended Dominance oftheCPPwasnotresult offaircom- Being threatened, suppres theCPPgovernment - 89 88
86 In the general election 87
CNRP byarresting thenewleader, KemSohka,underthe deprived powerawayfrom oppositionpartiesthrough polit- first cracked down FUCINPEC by force and then gradually China forfinancial resources. Thiscanbeamajorfactorthe 2017, thenationalassemblyamendedlawonpolitical ordered thedissolutionofCNPRandprohibited CNRP crimes and toallow the ministry ofinteriortopetition the one partydictatorship. obtained allseatsinthenationalassembly, establishing came to lose as leverage over the Fun Sen government extreme insuppressing oppositionparties.Yet, theWest civil war, influencesfrom external the West were enor allegation ofthenationaltreason. supreme court to dissolve the political party, which vio- a fairandfree electionin1993underwhich FUCINPEC the nationalassemblydominatedbyCPP. to Prime Minister Hun Sen’s personal management. He the regime intoanauthoritarian regime maybeattributed the Fun Sen government came to be able to relythe Fun Sen government more on to factorscommonlyemphasizedinthedemocratization Relevant Factors resigned from the position of the CNRP president after the politicians to be engaged in political activities for 5 years parties toprohibit apersonwhohascommittedserious regime hasbecomemore authoritarianthaneverbyfully managed to win. The assistance from Western countries mous. Thecontrol oftheUNTAC contributedtoholding in November2017. ical prosecutions andobstructing theirpoliticalactivities. bill wassubmitted,toprevent thedissolutionofhisparty. banning amajoroppositionparty, theCSRP. 93. Ibid. 92. Hatshukano“NisenjyugonennoKanbojia [Cambodiain2017]”,248. Kenkyujo. Tokyo. 2018,248. 91. Hatshukano,Naomi“Nisenjyugonen noKanbojia[Cambodiain2017]” Kenkyujo. Tokyo. 2016,260. 90. Hatshukano,Naomi.“Nisenjyugonen noKanbojia[Cambodiain2015]” in AjiaDokoNenpo[AlmanacofCurrent Affairs inAsia]2017. AjiaKeizai in AjiaDokoNenpo[AlmanacofCurrent Affairs inAsia]2015. AjiaKeizai lated thelawonpoliticalparties. likely restrained from theFun Sen government goingtoo literature, namely, factors.Aftertheendof external The CPP, nonetheless, achieved dissolution of the Still, itispossibletorelate thepoliticaldevelopments In thecaseofCambodia,gradualtransformation In thegeneralelectionheldinJuly2018,CPP 93 91 InFebruary, SamRainsy 92 Thesupreme court 90 In February InFebruary - STATE OF DEMOCRACIES IN ASIA: LESSONS FROM INDONESIA, PHILIPPINES, MALAYSIA, MYANMAR, THAILAND AND CAMBODIA 19 - Democratic countries have been losing influence over So, what can countries interested in endurance of of endurance in interested countries can what So, The opposite case is Cambodia. As we have just seen, The third element is the role of external factors. Among is the role element The third bodia’s authoritarian regime becoming even more despotic becoming even more authoritarian regime bodia’s in recent years. in recent intervention and do not make strong opposition. The impli- intervention and do not make strong provision of financial assistance was a major factor in Cam- provision much dependence on one country in the field of economy ratize the country to a semi-democratic regime. prompted the military regime to speed up democratic up democratic to speed the military regime prompted 2010 in elections obstruct not did military The reforms. Role of Democratic Countries and International Finan- tries which tend to relate types of political regime to the to the types of political regime tries which tend to relate these regimes. cases in which the six cases, Myanmar and Cambodia are the fate of political regimes in the emerging countries for for countries emerging the in regimes political of fate the was a major factor in the military’s commitment to democ- was a major factor in the military’s cial Institutions so fed up with government corruption, they tolerate military sanctions after the mass protest in 2007 in Myanmar in 2007 in Myanmar sanctions after the mass protest and 2015 and accepted the transfer of power to the NDL. Of course, the military could feel secure because they still because could feel secure Of course, the military fear of too Yet, under a new regime. can keep prerogatives coun democratic from leverage the in decline gradual cation is that the elimination of corruption, in newly born of corruption, cation is that the elimination external The increased factors have been very relevant. democracies and semi-democracies, is likely to sustain likely to sustain democracies and semi-democracies, is democratic regimes do? democratic regimes The second important factor is corruption. Many regime The second important factor is corruption. Many regime The previous discussions reaffirm the political sig- discussions reaffirm The previous The discussions in this paper shed light on some some on light shed paper this in discussions The Cambodia, Assistance 6: Cambodia, Figure be certain if the civilian supremacy over the military is really over the military is really be certain if the civilian supremacy importantly, it deprives power away from the newly born it deprives power away from importantly, nificance of the civil-military relationship in some Asian Asian in some relationship nificance of the civil-military nature of political regimes in some Asian countries. They They countries. Asian some in regimes political of nature racies in Asia rests on whether civilians can constrain the racies in Asia rests them. military and take political power away from political regimes in some of these countries. On the other in some of these countries. political regimes V. Implications on the Financial Community Implications on the Financial V. fact, it is the other side of the same phenomena, regime fact, it is the other side of the same phenomena, regime tively secure from intervention of the military, we cannot we cannot military, the of intervention from secure tively transitions. On one side, we see changes in the nature of transitions. On one side, we see changes in the nature ways. It can weaken an authoritarian regime. Yet, more more Yet, ways. It can weaken an authoritarian regime. side, we observe changes in the civil-military relationship. side, we observe changes in the civil-military relationship. and nature of political regimes in the Philippines, Myanmar of political regimes and nature - have been rela Indonesian politics and Thailand. So far, are the state of the civil-military relationship, the role of of the role the state of the civil-military relationship, are aspects which are important in examining changes of the aspects which are changes which we have seen in this paper involve political changes which distaste for corruption can work both corruption. People’s countries. This is not really a causal factor of changes. In countries. This is not really corruption and the role of external factors. corruption and the role - This applies to the Estrada Presi democratic regimes. dency and the Thaksin Administration. When citizens are firmly established in Indonesia. The future of many democ- firmly established in Indonesia. The future Three Important Elements The change in the civil-military relationship affected the fate affected The change in the civil-military relationship HARUKATA TAKENAKA 20 disbursement offinancial resources tothe politicalperfor design systemsofproviding financial resources linkingthe Itispossibleto democratic elementsintheirgovernance. financial resources and economic opportunities they offer ernment in2004. ernment of the Millennium Challenge Corporation by the US gov countries through sanctions.There are otherways. of sanctionsagainstcountrieswithauthoritarianprac- countries shouldstillbeaware oftheirleverage.The coup d’étatin2014tocomethepositionofprime ocratic regime inThailand.Amilitarycommandermadea countries have responded to the breakdown of the dem ent parts of the world,havereduced theirinterest in this growth, negative interest rates, demographic change, cli as the state of political competition and political freedom, authoritarian andsemi-democraticregimes toincrease at leastexpress thepossibilityof imposingsanctionson are enormous. There are several ways.Firstistheuse spend abroad. Theproblems includeexpansionofinequal - worry aboutsanctions,authoritarianleadersinothercoun- the ideaissameasphilosophy behindthecreation the donorcountriesprovide more assistance.Inessence, these regimes. tices. Ifauthoritarianregimes orsemi-democraticregimes tries havecompletelylostleverage.Thedemocratic tries alsodonothavebeafraidofsanctions. two reasons. First, democratic countries face too many the fateofdemocraticregime inThailand. reservations against being too coercive against sovereign recipient countriesimprove theirpoliticalconditionssuch mances oftherecipient countries.Underthissystemwhen rights of individuals, democratic countries can impose or resort tosuppression ofoppositionorviolatethepolitical resources. Thus, just as Cambodia did no longer have to minister andholdsontopowerwithoutchoosingmeans. problem. Thisisverymuchevidentinhowdemocratic mate changes,Brexit andsoon. polarization indomestic politics, deflationaswellslow problems athomeandhavereduced politicalcapitalto nomic leverageoverauthoritarianregimes becausethey Democratic countriesdemonstratedalmostnointerest in ity becauseofglobalizationandtechnologicalinnovations, been interested inthenature ofpoliticalregimes indiffer have ceasedtobethedominantsources offinancial This, doesnotmean,however, thatdemocraticcoun- The otherreason istheWest hascometoloseeco- Of course,thispaperisaware oftheexistencestrong One isadirect approach ofproviding incentivesto So, somecountriesliketheUnitedStates,whichhave - - - - - ernance underdemocraticregimes.ernance explore possiblemeanstosecure democraticgovernance country receives. countries ontheamountoffinancial resources whicheach cial institutions.Theycanalsobesources ofleverageon cial resources whichemergingcountries,regardless of contributing toenduranceofauthoritarianrule,ornot.Ifa corruption. cise of economic sanctions, introduction of incentives to countries togivemore considerationstothestateofcor corruption isamajorsource ofundermininglegitimacy over political offices is ahugechallenge. It ispossible to of politicalcompetitionandexpandingcontrol ofvoters ambitious tothereaders. Itmayremind thereader ofthe are providing financial resources to authoritarian regimes, ations totheassistancepoliciesofrecipient countries. authoritarian rulers. Democratic countries, who are large assistance todespoticregimes. IFIsshould considerbeing situation existsinsomecountries,where variouscondi- shareholders ofmanyIFIs,shouldletIFIsbemore atten- Some countries, which receive financial resources from where there seemtoexist enoughconditionstohavegov- tions simply do not allow governance under democratic tions simply do not allow governance the financial resources providedfinan- bytheinternational types ofpolitical regime, receive from othercountries. to countrieswhogivemonetaryresources todespotic tries. IFIsshouldbemore attentiveiftherecipient countries tive topoliticalconditionsoftherecipient countriesand the democratic regime. It should be possible for donor ties with dictators, this means that IFIs indirectly provide IFIs, more specifically, theIMForIBRD,shouldcollect IFIs, atthesametime provide assistancestoothercoun - regimes. Yet, evenifdoingisdifficult, weshouldalways phrase “itiseasierthansaiddone.”Certainly, aHobbesian ruption intherecipient countries. regimes. more reserved asregard toproviding financial resources recipient country is in fact providing assistance to coun reduction ofcorruption.Asthispaperhasdemonstrated not haveenoughinformationabouttheamountoffinan- information from departmentsoffinancethemember improve state of political conditions and efforts toeliminate have IFIs provide larger considerations to possible exer have anarrower target.Namely, theeliminationand The other is an indirect approach. Improving the state One related problem isthatdemocraticcountriesdo What thispapersuggestsinsectionmaybetoo Democratic countriesshouldalsobemore aware of Lastly, inthe case ofIFIs,IFIsshouldgivemore deliber - - - -
LANSDOWNE RESORT AND SPA,OCTOBER 20-22, 2019 LANSDOWNE RESORT VIRGINIA EMERGING MARKETS FORUM
2019 GLOBAL MEETING The Emerging Markets Forum was created by the Centennial Group as a not-for-pro t initiative to bring together high-level government and corporate leaders from around the world to engage in dialogue on the key economic, nancial and social issues facing BACKGROUND emerging market countries. PAPERS
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Megumi Muto
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