S3‐4136 Ecopath with Ecosim 6: New generation modeling package , Joe Buszowski, Robyn Forrest, Fang Gao, Carie Hoover, Joe Hui, Sherman Lai, Jeroen Steenbeek, William Walters and

PICES 16th Annual Meeting, Victoria, October 30, 2007 CCCC/FIS Topic Session S3 Towards ecosystem‐based management: Recent developments and successes in multi‐species modeling http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/breakthroughs/welcome.html NOAA celebrates 200 year

2 NMFS, Bering Sea, GoAlaska Greenland Prince William Sound Inst.Faroe Fisheries Inst FIMR, Helsinki Stockholm Univ. UBC IMR, Bergen DFO Swedish Fisheries Four Fish. Commissions Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania UoWisconsin Poland NOAA, Chesapeake Bay DIFRES Virginia IMS Trop. Tuna Comm. NCEAS CEFAS, Lowestoft S Atlantic MFC IFREMER NMFS, Galveston Venice/Trieste Mote lab Santander NMFS, Honolulu Thetis, Greece La Paz, Mexico FL FWRI Fish. Inst, Lisboa GoMexico FMC Azores G.o Mexico Six West African Yucatan reefs F.I. Dominican Rep. Countries Jamaica, BVI, … Colombia G.o.Guinea 19 Trinidad, Tobago countries Venezuela = training Charles Darwin courses / Research Station, workshops Galapagos Angola

Abrolhos, Brazil Namibia Sao Paulo, Brazil >300 models Cape Town Tongoy Gulf, Chile Concepp,cion, Chile >4500 reg. users Argentina 155 countries and there are also activities on Ecopath project activities the other side3 EwE data, models, and uses

Abundance, mortality, Parameterization Environmental catches, feeding rates, Ecopath assessments, network diets, growth, interaction analysis, ecological terms, , theory, fis her ies manage‐ persistent pollutants, Time‐dynamics mentment,, adaptive manage‐ , nutrient Ecosim mentment,, culling, ecosystem loading, climate manipulation, protected indicators, migration, Spatial‐dynamics areas, spatial zoning, dispersal, occurrence, Ecospace policy exploration, distribution, costs, fisheries sector optimi‐ subsidies, prices, values, Persistent zationzation,, conflict reduction, existence values, pollutant climate scenarios, emppyloyment dynamics gggaming, ... The new Ecopath with Ecosim (6)

• Four year ppjroject funded through Lenfest Ocean Program • Lenfest Ocean Futures Project: – EwE6 released Sep 2007 – Ocean Summits methodology 2009

•Customized versions facilitated

• User Ownership 5 New in EwE6 • Object oriented implementation • Usability improvements: – Navigation tree – IdImproved viilitisualization ttlools • “More uncertainty” • Plug‐ins • Alternative interfaces • Linkages • Localization

6 EwE6 overview

Scientific Interface Plug-ins

EwE Core

Ecopath Ecosim Ecospace

Data source

Source code (live) available for download through cvs 7

EwE6: Spatial modeling

• EwE5 short cuts for differentiation no longer needed • Ecospace now models multi‐stanza groups properly • OiOption for IBM for mulilti‐stanza groups incorporated (with Kenny Rose) • Threading to multiple processors

10

Red drum SRA Menhaden Ec os im Ecospace 2 Gulf of Ecospace IBM 81012 MiMexico FMC 150 200 250

• Ecosim 0246 050100 results Red snapper Mullet 1.5

similar to 10 12 results from

single species 0.5 1.0 2468 00 0 modldel (SRA) 0. • Ecospace .5 22 versions 1.2 Grouper Mackarel similar to 1.0 1.5 2.0 Ecosim and 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

SRA 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1950 1960 1970 1980 199013 2000 2010 Walters et al (MS) Fitting to time series: learning from ecosystem history

• Numerous EwE models have in recent years produced credible fit to historical data, and made plausible policy predic tions – requires inclusion of environmental as well as fisheries impact

14 where EwE models have been tested with historical trend data • E Bering Sea • Bay of Quinte • Aleutian Islands • Oneida Lake • W&C GoAlaska • Scotian Shelf • E GoAlaska • Chesapeake Bay • W Vancouver Island • Tampa Bay • Hecate Strait • US Gulf of Mexico • BiihBritish ClColum bia She lf • S BilBrazil Big ht • Strait of Georgia • Norwegian Sea • NE Pacific • North Sea • CN & ET Pacific • Baltic • NWHI, Hawaii • S Benguela • Gulf of California • Gulf of Thailand

• Central Chile • South China Sea 15 Christensen & Walters 2005 Modeling process: fitting & drivers

Formal estimation

Fishing

Ecosystem model (Diet ) Search 0 (, Predicted C, B, Log for , Z, W, diets Likelihood minimi‐ (Z0) mediation, zation (BCC/B0) age structured)

Observed Climate Nutrient C,B,Z,W, diets loading area

Judgmental evaluation

Choice of parameters to include in final Error estimation (e.g., climate pattern anomalies) recognition

Christensen & Walters 2005 Are seals causing fish declines in the Georgia Strait?

Is it fis hing ?

Is it environ‐ mental change?

Or, is it all three?

17 1950‘50 ‘70 ‘902000‘501950 ‘70 ‘90 2000 PP anomaly and climate indicators

• Strait of Georgia – Race Rocks Salinity Feb‐May

1.3 -20 PPA 10 MJJ 10 • BC shelf (m3/1 1.1 -10 uction anomaly uction 0 –

Uppgwelling, May‐July), 54°N dd 0m/s)

pro 0.9 0

0.7 10 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

1.1 1.3

PPA 30 0.7 • NE Pacific AMJJ 30

1.1 0.3 PDO index – PDO, April‐July -0.1 oduction anomaly oduction rr -050.5

p 090.9

-0.9

0.7 -1.3 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 18 Preikshot (UBC FCRR) 2007 What are models used for? • Lyne Morisette contacted registered EwE users: 325 models constructed or under construction – 42% ecosystem structure; – 30% ; – 11% theoretical ; – 6% protected area evaluations

19 Use of EwE for fisheries management • Evaluate impact of shrimp • EIA of proposed fisheries trawling, GoCalifornia; interventions, Bering Sea; • Evaluate impact of , • EIA of alternative TAC’s, Bering GoCalifornia; Sea and GoAlaska; • Shrimp bycatch issues, Gulf of • Target species response to Mexico FMC TACs, Bering Sea • Evaluate impact of predators • Closed area sizing, Great Barrier on shrimp, GoMexico; Reef, Australia • Demonstrate ecological role of • Valuation of cormorant impact, species, GoMexico; Ortobello, Italy • Impact of proposed fisheries • Evaluation of cormorant interventions, Namibia impact, Ringkobing, Denmark • South Africa pelagic fisheries

20 So why aren’t ecosystem models used more for management? • Lack of experience using ecosystem models for predictive purposes; • EtEcosystem moddlieling is for stttrateg ic management, and supplements the tactical single species assessment; • Fisheries management process is focused on tactical management; • Strategic decisions are virtually non‐existing.

21 Our empirical knowledge is limited

• Habitat and environmental changes (including those caused by fishing) and intensive removals create novel situations – We do not to understand the ‘mechanics’ of ecological response well enough to be able to predict all important responses to novel situations; – Make models one can play with;

22 Current developments

• Make Your Own Module • Model linkages …

23 Model linkages • ROMS/NPZ and climate models – NOAA GFDL/Princeton – FLEM (2 layer hydrographic model) – ERSEM • Tracking persistent pollutants & isotopes • Spatial zoning (Ecoseed & MARXAN Bridge) • Database‐driven model generation ((/GEF/LME ) • Global scenario modeling (UNEP/OECD) • Visualization and gaming: Ocean Summits

(Lenfest Ocean Futures Project) 24 Adaptive Management Procedure for Ocean Summits ‐ EwE

OiOperating moddlel MtManagement procedure Climate Assessment model Indicators module (ecological) (economical) Hydrographic (social) Status model Policy scenarios Ecosystem / bio‐economic model Visualization Strategy

The strategy is set by the participants; arrows indicate flow of information 25