Th e Pandemic Perhaps This page intentionally left blank Th e Pandemic Perhaps Dramatic Events in a Public Culture of Danger Carlo Caduff University of California Press University of California Press, one of the most distinguished university presses in the United States, enriches lives around the world by advancing scholarship in the humanities, social sciences, and natu ral sciences. Its activities are supported by the UC Press Foundation and by philanthropic contributions from individuals and institutions. For more information, visit www . ucpress . edu. University of California Press Oakland, California © 2015 by Th e Regents of the University of California Library of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication Data Caduff , Carlo, author. Th e pandemic perhaps : dramatic events in a public culture of danger / Carlo Caduff . pages cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. isbn 978-0-520-28408-1 (cloth : alk. paper) isbn 978-0-520-28409-8 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Infl uenza— United States— Forecasting. 2. Infl uenza— Social aspects— United States. 3. Infl uenza— United States— Prevention. 4. Epidemics— United States— Forecasting. 5. Epidemics— Social aspects— United States. 6. Epidemics— United States— Prevention. I. Title. RA644.I6C33 2015 614.5'18— dc23 2015011847 Manufactured in the United States of Ame rica 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Th e paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of ansi/ niso z39.48-1992 (r 2002) (Permanence of Paper). per bab e mumma This page intentionally left blank Th e category of perhaps is perhaps the best category to refer to what remains to come. Jacques Derrida This page intentionally left blank Contents List of Illustrations xi Ac know ledg ments xiii Introduction 1 1 • A Ferret’s Sneeze 36 2 • On the Run 60 3 • Casualties of Contagion 82 4 • Experiments of Concern 104 5 • A Real Test 129 6 • Th e Great Deluge 158 Epilogue 178 Note on the Cover Image 185 Notes 187 Bibliography 223 Index 243 This page intentionally left blank Illustrations 1. Th e avian fl u death threat 4 2. Th e bird fl u bomb 6 3. Th e great pandemic 9 4. Th e right prescription 13 5. Th e national strategy 17 6. Th e monster at our door 25 7. Can we beat infl uenza 41 8. A ferret in the cage 47 9. Th e answer to a prayer 48 10. Flu to the starboard 61 11. Th e fl u shot spectacle 77 12. It’s not fl u as usual 85 13. Th e standard medium 90 14. Th e harvesting 92 15. Th e serological test 94 16. Th e laboratory freezer 140 17. Today is the day before 150 xi This page intentionally left blank A c k n o w l e d g m e n t s I would like to extend my sincere gratitude to the scientists, public health pro- fessionals, and emergency planners in New York City, as well as those in Atlanta and Geneva, who were willing to spend time with me and share their insights, experiences, and expertise. Special thanks are due to Dr. Peter Palese at the Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York City for engaging with my work and for allowing me to spend time in his lab and familiarize myself with experimental microbiological research. I was lucky indeed to have such an extraordinary interlocutor who always surprised me with his perspec- tive. In the Palese lab, Drs. Anice Lowen, Samira Mubareka, Qinshan Gao, and Gina Connenello introduced me to the virus and its ever- shift ing shape. I am especially thankful to these fabulous researchers for off ering their precious time, for guiding me through the complex material culture of experimental research, and for responding patiently to what must have seemed to them a never- ending stream of strange questions about rather ob- vious things. In New York City, I would also like to thank Dr. Kristine Gebbie at Columbia University’s School of Nursing, Dr. Lewis Goldfrank at Bellevue Hospital Center, and Nicholas Cagliuso at the New York- Presbyterian Healthcare System. Eileen Scanlon and her team at the Nassau County Of- fi ce of Emergency Preparedness were extremely helpful and supportive and always willing to talk to me about their work and their vision. Th anks are due to Doris Varlese at the Greater New York Hospital Association and to Christopher Williams at the Community Health Care Association of New York State. I would also like to thank all the public health offi cials in the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene who helped me understand the politics of preparedness and who chose to remain anonymous xiii to protect their identities. I owe special thanks to the late Dr. Edwin Kil- bourne for sharing with me his insights about the history of microbiology, as well as to his former colleagues, Drs. Doris Bucher and Barbara Pokorny, at New York Medical College, for conversations about the production of vac- cines and Dr. Kilbourne’s involvement in the swine fl u aff air. I also appreci- ate the support of the late Dr. David Sencer, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta. Th anks to Dr. Robert Webster for an unexpected encounter and conversation at the University of Hong Kong. At the CDC in Atlanta, I would like to thank the director of the Infl u- enza Branch, Dr. Nancy Cox, for graciously lending her time and facilitating my research. Th anks are also due to Drs. Terry Tumpey and Taronna Maines for explaining their research, inviting me into their laboratory, and kindly off ering me their expertise. Drs. Dan Jernigan, Roger Bernier, Amanda Bal- ish, Caroline Bridges, Nicole Smith, Michael Bell, and Andrew Demma have been great interlocutors at CDC. Many thanks to Drs. Art Reingold and Lara Misegades at UC Berkeley’s Public Health School and to Dr. Keiji Fukuda at the World Health Or ga ni za tion in Geneva. Th anks to Dr. Mike Ascher for opening doors in Atlanta. Don Greenstein at the Keystone Cen- ter and Dr. Paul E. Jarris and Anna M. De Blois at the Association of State and Territorial Health Offi cials shared their insights about public engage- ment and pandemic preparedness with me and invited me to observe their projects. At the Institute of Medical Virology at the University of Zu rich, I would like to thank Drs. Silke Stertz and Jovan Pavlovic for stimulating conversations and insights. At Berkeley, I wish to thank Paul Rabinow for introducing me to the idea of fi eldwork in philosophy. His insistence on thinking as a critical and cre- ative practice was inspiring. Cori Hayden has provided intellectual guidance in matters of the anthropology of science, medicine, knowledge, and tech- nology. She has helped me with her ethnographic imagination to shape this project and has off ered support at critical junctures. Alexei Yurchak intro- duced me to speech act theory, allowing me to explore the map of misread- ing. Th anks to Lawrence Cohen for expanding my understanding of medi- cal anthropology and for providing insights about the semiotics of security: I could not have written chapter 4 in its pre sent form without him. David Winickoff has generously read chapters and has provided invaluable com- ments on the limits of participatory governance and public engagement. I will never forget the extraordinary intellectual and personal kindness of the xiv • A c k n o w l e d g m e n t s late Alan Pred. He showed me that one could be a rigorous and generous scholar at the same time— a felicitous combination of virtues. Th anks are due as well to Stephen Collier and Andy Lakoff for inviting me to a work- shop on biosecurity and for engaging my work on the fl u more generally. Jeremy Greene off ered an insightful last- minute reading of my Introduction, facilitating the fi nal push. Frédéric Keck kindly invited me to Hong Kong and has generously shared his insights with me ever since. I continue to learn from his work. Many colleagues and friends have been essential for this work, which has been a long time in the making. I would like to thank Gerhard Anders, Nikola Bagic, Aditya Bharadwaj, Roger Begrich, Orkideh Behrouzan, Jean- François Bissonnette, Michael Bresalier, Alberto Cambrosio, Flurin Condrau, Susan Craddock, Veena Das, Roy Dilley, Raad Fadaak, Didier Fassin, Jim Faubion, Lyle Fearnley, Angela Filipe, Des Fitzgerald, Anitra Grisales, Jane Guyer, Clara Han, Niloofar Haeri, Gabriela Hertig, Steve Hinchliff e, Charles Hirschkind, Marc Honigsbaum, Julia Hornberger, Karine Landgren Hugen- tobler, Rohit Jain, Karen Jent, Evangelos Karagiannis, Janina Kehr, Chris Kelty, Naveeda Khan, Hanna Kienzler, Th omas Kirsch, Nicolas Langlitz, Samuel Lengen, Javier Lezaun, Ilana Löwy, Sam Maclean, Th eresa MacPhail, Tara Mahfoud, Joe Masco, Andrea Mühlebach, David Napier, Vinh- Kim Nguyen, Francisco Ortega, Randy Packard, Anand Pandian, Bronwyn Parry, Kris Peterson, Deborah Poole, Natalie Porter, Beth Povinelli, Hugh Raffl es, Kaushik Sunder Rajan, Peter Redfi eld, Tobias Rees, Janet Roitman, Nikolas Rose, Salome Schärer, Th omas Schlich, Ilina Singh, Anthony Stavri- anakis, Ann Stoler, Stefanie Strulik, Tatjana Th elen, Miriam Ticktin, Fouz- ieyha Towghi, Andri Tschudi, Jerome Whitington, Scott Vrecko, Austin Zeiderman, Naomi Zumstein, and Patrick Zylberman for their suggestions, conversations, and comments. Th ese scholars are of course not responsible for what I have written. Th anks are due as well to the anonymous reviewers and the editors of Cultural Anthropology, Anne Allison and Charles Piot, for their suggestions on my article that served as a basis for this book.