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2016 Senate Overview: Trump Looms Over

Volume 39, No. 5 Fight for the Majority March 4, 2016 By Nathan L. Gonzales

Twelve months ago, no one imagined billionaire Donald J. Trump 2016 Senate Ratings would be in firm control of the Republican Party’s presidential nominating process. And the past year is peppered with handicapping Pure Toss-Up mistakes as everyone tried to fit Trump into Johnson (r-Wi) historical election molds. fl open (rubio, r) On the surface, Trump looks like anything NV open (reid, d) from a drag to a disaster for Republicans in down-ballot races if he is the GOP Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat Toss-Up/Tilt republican presidential nominee. But Trump’s appeal Kirk (R-IL) ayotte (r-NH) has been so difficult to predict in the primary that it’s not unreasonable to portman (r-oH)# consider that his general election demise isn’t necessarily automatic. toomey (r-pa) GOP strategists and vulnerable senators would certainly rather run with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at the top of the ticket. But there is clearly energy Lean Democrat Lean republican behind Trump’s candidacy, and new, anti-establishment voters could help bennet (d-co) burr (r-Nc) Republicans in competitive states. At the same time, Trump’s outrageous Democrat Favored republican Favored and offensive remarks could cause problems for Republicans among blunt (r-mo) moderate voters and Republicans who are embarrassed by his actions. Republicans are taking some solace in President ’s mccain (r-az) mediocre job approval ratings and former Secretary of State Hillary iN open (coats, r) Clinton’s slumping favorability ratings. Safe Democrat Safe republican Vulnerable GOP senators including Mark Kirk of Illinois, Ron Johnson of blumenthal (d-ct) boozman (r-ar) Wisconsin, Kelly Ayotte of , Rob Portman of Ohio, and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania could face the unenviable task of trying to declare leahy (d-Vt) isakson (r-Ga) independence from Trump while capturing the energy of his supporters. murray (d-Wa) lankford (r-oK) Their five states, along with Rubio’s open seat in Florida and schatz (d-Hi) crapo (r-id) Democrat Harry Reid’s open seat in Nevada, will likely determine schumer (d-Ny) Grassley (r-ia) which party controls the Senate next year. But it’s possible other states, Wyden (d-or) Hoeven (r-Nd) including Colorado, , Missouri and Arizona, could move onto the playing field based on the top of the ticket dynamics. ca open (boxer, d) lee (r-ut) Democratic strategists believe Republicans’ lack of action toward GOP DEM md open (mikulski, d) moran (r-Ks) Obama’s upcoming Supreme Court nominee will give them a fresh issue. 114th congress 54 46 murkowski (r-aK) Republican strategists believe the SCOTUS issue could energize their GOP DEM paul (r-Ky) conservativeNot base up and this don’t cycle see great30 general36 election risk, particularly when 114th congress 54 46 scott (r-sc) they believe currentlyjobs, the economy safe and national 8security will be at the forefront. The Senate majority is still firmly up for grabs, with a broad range of Not up this cycle 30 36 shelby (r-al) competitive 10 2 potential outcomes (from minimal net change to significant Democratic currently safe 14 8 thune (r-sd) gains) depending on the presidential race and national mood. Democrats competitive 10 2 la open (Vitter, r) need to gain five seats for a majority. Takeovers in Italics # moved benefi ting Democrats, If there is one thing we’ve learned this cycle, it is don’t assume you know * moved benefi ting Republicans exactly what Trump is doing and how it will impact the electoral landscape.

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rotHeNberGGoNzales.com January 9, 2015 3 Four Early Lessons From 2016 Presidential Ratings the Presidential Race (Electoral Votes) Pure Toss-Up (69) By Nathan L. Gonzales colorado (9) ohio (18) Republicans and Democrats are still sorting through their presidential florida (29) Virginia (13) primaries, but there are already a handful of lessons to be learned. The candidate with the most money doesn’t always win. Vermont Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic (14) Toss-Up/Tilt republican (15) Sen. Bernie Sanders loves to claim that the people with the most money New Hampshire (4) North carolina (15) control our elections. But former Florida Gov. Wisconsin (10) Jeb Bush’s campaign just proved them wrong. He spent tens of millions of dollars more than Lean Democratic (32) Lean republican (0) the rest of his competitors and still lost. Money iowa (6) is a significant factor in campaigns, but not necessarily the defining factor. The quality of Nevada (6) the candidate and campaign matter, along with the dynamic of the field pennsylvania (20) and overall political climate. The candidate with the most donors doesn’t always win. Sanders loves Democrat Favored (38) republican Favored (48) to rail on “big money” in politics and touts over 3 million contributions michigan (16) arizona (11) from over 1.3 million contributors. But unless Hillary Clinton implodes, minnesota (10) Georgia (16) Sanders is not going to win the Democratic nomination. A large network of New mexico (5) indiana (11) contributors can be a sign of grassroots strength on the ground. But Sanders hasn’t been able to translate those dollars into votes and delegates. oregon (7) missouri (10) Define your opponent before they can define themselves.This is not a new lesson, but a reinforcement of a foundational aspect of campaigns. Safe Democratic (179) Safe republican (143) Clinton allies, and many Republicans, assumed that the sheer mention california (55) rhode island (4) alabama (9) oklahoma (7) of the word “socialist” would drive Sanders’ supporters away from connecticut (7) Vermont (3) alaska (3) south carolina (9) the senator. So the senator had much of 2015 to spread his message delaware (3) Washington (12) (6) south dakota (3) and define himself on his own terms. As it became clear Sanders was a dc (3) idaho (4) tennessee (11) serious threat, the Clinton campaign finally started to go on the attack. Hawaii (4) Kansas (6) texas (38) Clinton should have taken him more seriously from the beginning. There is a growing divide in the Democratic Party. For years, illinois (20) Kentucky (8) utah (6) Democrats have enjoyed watching the Republican Civil War, but they maine (4) (8) West Virginia (5) are on pace to have their own intra-party battle. Sanders’ longevity and maryland (10) mississippi (6) Wyoming (3) success in the presidential race is a function of his populist message and a massachusetts (11) montana (3) reaction to Clinton’s high-dollar speeches and relationship with Wall Street. As a 74-year-old senator who has been in Washington for 25 years, there is New Jersey (14) Nebraska (5) little appeal to Sanders as a messenger. If she had run, Massachusetts Sen. (29) North dakota (3) Elizabeth Warren would probably be the frontrunner right now. 270 needed to win

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Nathan L. Gonzales Stuart Rothenberg Will Taylor Editor & Publisher Founding Editor & Publisher Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] @nathanlgonzales @stupolitics The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report is a nonpartisan publication that analyzes, handicaps and reports on U.S. House, Senate, and gubernatorial elections and presidential politics. It neither endorses candidates nor advocates positions in matters of public policy. The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report is published 24 times annually. Annual Subscription Rates: Individual - $249 + sales tax • Silver License - $2,500 (tax included) • Gold License - $5,000 (tax included)

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2 March 4, 2016 Nonpartisan Analysis of Politics and Elections Senate Overview: Alabama-Arkansas

ALABAMA – Richard Shelby (R) elected 1986 (50%), ARKANSAS – (R) elected 2010 (58%). 1992 (65%), 1998 (63%), 2004 (68%), 2010 (65%). Shelby Boozman defeated Curtis Coleman 76-24 percent in Tuesday’s primary. turned back a serious primary challenge from Jonathan McConnell on That was probably his steepest challenge of the cycle. Former U.S. Tuesday, 65-28 percent. The senator’s allies were concerned that Donald Attorney Conner Eldridge (D) is running and is energetic, but had Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz would turn out a crowd of new anti- $277,000 in the bank on Feb. 10 compared to Boozman’s $1.5 million. establishment voters who may vote against the incumbent. But Shelby It’s not clear how or why Eldridge, a first-time candidate, would be finally spent millions of dollars from the campaign war chest he has been able to overcome the 17- and 21-point losses suffered by Mark Pryor amassing for years to overwhelm the opposition. Safe GOP. and , respectively, in the last twoVolume Senate races. 38, Safe No. for 2 JaN.Republicans. 23, 2015 ALASKA – Lisa Murkowski (R) appointed Dec. 2002, elected 2004 (49%), 2010 (39% as a write-in). June 1 filing deadline (August 16 for independents). 2016 House Ratings August 16 primary. Murkowski appeared to take her 2010 race for granted and it nearly cost her. She lost the primary to Joe Miller, Pure Toss-Up (2D, 10r) but won the general election by 4 points as a write-in candidate. This az 1 (open; Kirkpatrick, d) mN 2 (open; Kline, r) cycle, there is the potential that this race gets more competitive. Former fl 18 (open; murphy, d) NH 1 (Guinta, r) Republican/attorney Margaret Stock is running as an Independent, fl 26 (curbelo, r) NV 3 (open; Heck, r) and Democrats may opt to take their chances with her against the ia 3 (young, r) Ny 22 (open; Hanna, r) GOP incumbent. It worked in 2014, when former Republican Bill il 10 (dold, r) Ny 24 (Katko, r) GOP DEM Walker defeated Gov. Sean Parnell, and it almost worked in Kansas me 2 (poliquin, r) tX 23 (Hurd, r) when Democrats rallied behind an Independent against GOP Sen. 114th congress Toss-Up/Tilt Dem (2r, 2D) Toss-Up/Tilt GOP (3r) 54 Pat Roberts. Murkowski had $3.1 million in the bank at the end of 46 December, but this race may not be done yet. Safe GOP for now. IA 1 (Blum, R) mi 7 (Walberg, r) Not up this cycle Ne 2 (ashford, d) Ny 1 (zeldin, r) 30 ARIZONA – John McCain (R) elected 1986 (61%), Ny 3 (open; israel, d) pa 8 (open; fitzpatrick, r) 36 1992 (56%), 1998 (69%), 2004 (77%), 2010 (59%). June NV 4 (Hardy, R) currently safe 1 filing deadline. August 30 primary.The senator starts 14 2016 with advantages in the primary and general elections, but he Lean Democratic (1r) Lean republican (5r) 8 FL 13 (Open; Jolly, R) co 6 (coffman, r) could be particularly competitive vulnerable if Trump is mi 1 (open; benishek, r) 10 the GOP presidential Ny 19 (open; Gibson, r) 2 nominee. Va 2 (forbes, r) On one hand, Va 10 (comstock, r) Trump could boost interest and turnout Democrat Favored (2D) republican Favored (6r, 1D) from Anglo voters ca 7 (bera, d) az 2 (mcsally, r) who are upset with mN 8 (Nolan, dfl) ca 21 (Valadao, r) Obama’s immigration ca 25 (Knight, r) policies. On the Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom Ann Kirkpatrick FL 2 (Graham, D) other hand, Trump fl 7 (mica, r) could inflame Hispanic voters and push swing voters away from the NJ 5 (Garrett, r) Republican brand. Wi 8 (open; ribble, r) State Sen. Kelli Ward is challenging McCain in the GOP primary. But she had just $259,000 in the bank on Dec. 31 (compared to $5.1 million for Safe Democrat (2r) Dropped From List the senator) and no outside groups appear poised to help her. Anybody FL 10 (Webster, R) with a pulse could probably get 30 percent of the primary vote against VA 4 (Open; Forbes, R) McCain, but he is not in imminent danger of losing. GOP DEM Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick gives Democrats a credible general election challenger, but insiders admit she needs some help to get across the 114th congress 247 188 finish line. She had $857,000 on hand on Dec. 31. Republican Favored, currently safe 219 183 until things get crazy for Republicans. competitive 27 7 Takeovers in Italics Behavior Research Center, Nov. (LVs)--General Election ballot: McCain over Needed for majority 218 # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans Kirkpatrick 37%-31%. GOP Primary ballot: McCain over Ward 38%-12%. rothenbergGonzales.com rothenbergGonzales.com March 4, 2016 3 Senate Overview: California-Connecticut

CALIFORNIA – Open; Barbara Boxer (D) not Field Poll, Dec. 15-Jan. 3 (LVs)--Primary ballot: Harris 27%, Sanchez seeking re-election. March 11 filing deadline. June 7 15%, Chavez 7%, Tom Del Beccaro 3%, Duf Sundheim 3%. IDs: Harris 38% Top Two primary. Republican Assemblyman Rocky Chavez favorable/21% unfavorable, Sanchez 27% favorable/24% unfavorable, Del Beccaro quit the race abruptly before a recent debate and announced his bid 7% favorable/21% unfavorable, Sundheim 7% favorable/22% unfavorable. for re-election. His Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D)/American Viewpoint (R) for USC, Aug. exit doesn’t impact 29-Sept. 8 (RVs)--Primary ballot: Harris 26%, Sanchez 17%, Del Beccaro 10%, Republican chances Chavez 9%. of taking over the seat since they didn’t COLORADO – (D) appointed Jan. have much of a 2009, elected 2010 (48%). April 4 filing deadline. chance when Chavez June 28 primary. Republicans failed to come up with a top- was running. The tier challenger to Bennet, but 13 lower-tier candidates are taking the race looks likely plunge. GOPers love to talk about the senator’s re-election numbers to come down to being softer than Democratic Sen. Mark Udall’s in 2014, when Udall a choice between lost re-election. But the field of Republicans taking on Bennet is also Kamala Harris two Democratic considerably weaker than last cycle. candidates: state Attorney General Kamala Harris ($4 million in the State Rep. Jon Keyser is trying to cast himself as the second coming bank on Dec. 31) and Orange County Rep. Loretta Sanchez ($2.1 of now-Sen. Cory million). Even some Democrats admit Harris has been running an Gardner and might underwhelming campaign, but Sanchez may not be strong enough to have the most upside take advantage of the opportunity. Republicans haven’t won a Senate of the Republican race in California since Pete Wilson was re-elected in 1988. Safe for the contenders, but he Democrats. is very green as a Senate candidate, according to GOP sources. Former Candidate Conversation Aurora city Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call councilman/former Michael Bennet Nanette Barragan (D) 7th District nominee Candidate for California’s 44th Ryan Frazier, former Colorado State University Athletic Director Jack District Graham, state Sen. Tim Neville, and wealthy businessman Robert Interview Date: Feb. 23, 2016 Blaha are also running. The June primary will be a proving ground Date of Birth: Sept. 15, 1976; for the GOP nominee. Harbor City, Calif. Meanwhile, Bennet is stockpiling cash ($6.7 million in on the bank Education: UCLA (2000); on Dec. 31) and confidence. Democrats dismiss Udall’s loss as a casualty USC law school (2005); UC-

Meredith Dake-O’Connor/CQ Roll Call of the midterms and are confident that presidential-year turnout will Davis (attended) benefit their candidates up and down the ballot. Political Office:Hermosa Beach City Council Current Outlook: Barragan is a credible contender for the Los Colorado is likely to be a presidential swing state and the Senate race Angeles-area open seat left by Democratic Rep. Janice Hahn, who is should be competitive. But even though Bennet was initially elected running for county supervisor. Democratic state Sen. Isadore Hall is with less than 50 percent against a flawed candidate, it will take a top the initial front-runner. candidate to defeat him. Lean Democratic and not looking particularly Evaluation: The race between two Democrats will probably go to good for Republicans. November because of California’s Top Two primary. Barragan was Quinnipiac Univ., Nov. 11-15 (RVs)--Bennet job rating: 37% approve/35% energetic and passionate in our interview and ready to make her disapprove. Bennet deserves re-election 30%/does not 41%. case against Hall, who she believes it too close to corporate interests. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D), Oct. 24-28 (LVs)--Bennet job This primary feels like a microcosm of the growing divide in the rating: 42% approve/30% disapprove. Bennet ID: 35% warm/31% cold. Democratic Party, but may not be a true test of who is winning the fight because Hall got off to a six-month head-start. On paper, Barragan should have an advantage as a Latina in district with a CONNECTICUT – Richard Blumenthal (D) elected significant Hispanic population. But there are plenty of examples 2010 (55%). June 7 filing deadline. Aug. 9 primary. of non-Hispanic candidates getting elected to Hispanic districts Blumenthal had a tougher-than-expected race against former wrestling around the country. If you enjoy Democratic primaries, this is a race executive Linda McMahon (R) in 2010. But he had $3.9 million in the to watch. bank at the end of the year compared to Republican August Wolf’s $105,000. Safe for Democrats.

4 March 4, 2016 Nonpartisan Analysis of Politics and Elections Senate Overview: Florida-Georgia

FLORIDA – Open; Marco Rubio (R) not seeking re- Carson is being encouraged to enter this Senate race after pulling back election. May 6 filing deadline. Aug. 30 primary.The from the presidential race. For now, the nomination seems likely to come race in The Sunshine State remains one of the most important and least down to DeSantis and Beruff, but there is still over five months to go defined in the country. Both parties are facing competitive primaries with before the primary. potentially significant general election consequences. With competitive primaries on both sides of the aisle and the majority The DSCC has endorsed Rep. Patrick Murphy, but colorful Rep. Alan in the Senate up for grabs, this race could become one of the most Grayson is a serious contender. Grayson’s critics have been dropping expensive races in history. And the late, Aug. 30 primary doesn’t allow opposition research on him like Steph Curry drains 3-pointers, but those the parties much time to regroup for the general election. This race is still negative attacks are going to need to be put on television to inform developing. Pure Toss-Up. Florida voters who Public Policy Polling (D)(IVR), Feb. 24-25 (RVs)--General Election aren’t reading The New ballots: Jolly over Grayson 38%-35%. Grayson over Lopez-Cantera 38%-35%. York Times, if it doesn’t Grayson over DeSantis 40%-34%. Murphy over Jolly 38%-34%. Murphy over drive Grayson from Lopez-Cantera 40%-31%. Murphy over DeSantis 41%-33%. IDs: Grayson the race. 16% favorable/31% unfavorable, Jolly 11% favorable/19% unfavorable, Murphy should Lopez-Cantera 9% favorable/17% unfavorable, Murphy 16% favorable/15% have the money to do unfavorable, DeSantis 10% favorable/15% unfavorable. GOP Primary ballot: it (he had $4.3 million Jolly 26%, DeSantis 14%, Lopez-Cantera 11%, Wilcox 2%. IDs: Jolly 16% in the bank on Dec. favorable/13% unfavorable, Lopez-Cantera 9% favorable/14% unfavorable, 31), but the two-term DeSantis 11% favorable/14% unfavorable. Dem Primary ballot: Grayson over congressman also has Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call Murphy 33%-22%. IDs: Grayson 21% favorable/21% unfavorable, Murphy Patrick Murphy to increase his own 21% favorable/16% unfavorable. profile across the state. Democratic outside groups may need to step in 20/20 Insight LLC for Grayson, mid-Feb. (LVs)--Dem Primary ballot: before the Aug. 30 primary to help out. Grayson had just $211,000 on Grayson over Murphy 41%-32%. hand at the end of the year but has personal money he could spend on Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D), Oct. 24-28 (LVs)--General the race. Election ballot: Jolly over Murphy 44%-43%. IDs: Murphy 8% warm/20% Some Democratic strategists believe Grayson can’t win a general cold, Jolly 8% warm/11% cold. election and will work to make sure Murphy is the nominee, including calling in endorsements from President Obama and Vice President Joe GEORGIA – Johnny Isakson (R) elected 2004 Biden. Despite the terrible headlines for Grayson, he could still win this (58%), 2010 (58%). March 11 filing deadline. May 24 primary. Former Navy JAG/African-American attorney Pam Keith is primary. July 26 runoff. Not long ago, Democrats were talking also running but had a negative balance of nearly $20,000 at the end of the year. The Republican race is wide open and still evolving. Rep. Ron DeSantis 2016 Gubernatorial Ratings has been putting together the most complete campaign operation thus far, including $2.6 million in the bank on Dec. 31. Fellow Rep. David Jolly leads Pure Toss-Up in some initial primary polls but announced he didn’t think Members mo open (Nixon, d) should ask for money. (He had $507,000 on hand on Dec. 31.) WV open (tomblin, d) Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera had a modest $431,000 in the bank on Dec. 31. His campaign doesn’t seem to be gaining steam, and rumors of a friendly Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat Toss-Up/Tilt republican super PAC aren’t much more than that up to this point. Former CIA agent NH open (Hassan, d) mccrory (r- Nc) Todd Wilcox put $750,000 of his own money into the race last year and had $874,000 on hand on Dec. 31. But he’ll need to spend more than that without Lean Democrat Lean republican any political base. Wealthy home builder Carlos Beruff just entered the race bullock (d- mt) pence (r- iN) with the help of some of GOP Gov. Rick Scott’s campaign team. Beruff is trying to carve out a space as the outsider in the race and Democrat Favored republican Favored potentially follow Scott’s winning blueprint by outspending the rest of the field by a wide margin. It’s certainly possible for him to do that, Safe Democrat Safe republican but critics will paint Beruff as an ally of former GOP governor/2014 brown (d- or) Herbert (r- ut) Democratic gubernatorial nominee Charlie Crist. And DeSantis isn’t inslee (d- Wa) Nd open (dalrymple, r) easily portrayed as an insider, even though he is in Congress. DeSantis is de open (markell, d) likely to get support from Club for Growth, Senate Conservatives Fund, Vt open (shumlin, d) and Tea Party Express. # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans The filing deadline isn’t until May 6, and now there are rumors Ben rothenbergGonzales.com March 4, 2016 5

rotHeNberGGoNzales.com January 9, 2015 3 Senate Overview: Hawaii-Kansas up demographic changes in the state and Georgia becoming more enough valid signatures to qualify for the ballot. GOP Rep. Marlin competitive. Those plans appear to be on hold. Isakson had $5.6 million Stutzman’s campaign may have made a fatal error by joining with in the bank on Dec. 31 and no real Democratic challenger in sight. Safe Democrats to try Republican. and prevent Young from being on the HAWAII – Brian Schatz (D) appointed Dec. 2012, ballot and allowing elected 2014 (70%). June 7 filing deadline. Aug. 13 Young’s team to primary. Schatz had $2.6 million on hand at the end of the year and couple Stutzman with has no opponent. Sometimes handicapping can be difficult, but this race Obama, for as using isn’t tough to call. Safe for Democrats. the same tactics the President used to win IDAHO – Mike Crapo (R) elected 1998 (70%), 2004 a state Senate race in Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom Illinois. (99%), 2010 (71%). March 11 filing deadline. May Todd Young 17 primary. Crapo has never slipped below 70 percent in his three The GOP race previous Senate elections. He had $4.6 million on hand at the end of the is down to Young and Stutzman after Eric Holcomb dropped out year, which is a considerable total for Idaho. Safe for Republicans. of the race to be appointed lieutenant governor by Republican Gov. Mike Pence, who faces a serious re-election race this year. Young had ILLINOIS – Mark Kirk (R) elected 2010 (48%). a considerable financial advantage over Stutzman on Dec. 31 ($2.6 March 15 primary. veteran/Rep. Tammy Duckworth million to $1.1 million), particularly if outside groups, such as the Club is the frontrunner in for Growth, remain on the sidelines. Stutzman might win if the election the Democratic race was held today, but Young is best-positioned overall as the mainstream to take on the most Republican candidate. vulnerable senator Democrats held onto a sliver of hope that former Sen. Evan Bayh in the country. She would get into the race, but that was never a realistic scenario. The party shouldn’t have is left with former Rep. Baron Hill, who has struggled to raise enough trouble getting money to even be a credible House candidate. He had $382,000 in the beyond former bank at the end of the year. Republican Favored, even if Stutzman is the Chicago Urban nominee. League President Gun Owners of America (pro-Stutzman), Feb. 18 (RVs)--GOP Primary Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call Andrea Zopp and Tammy Duckworth ballot: Stutzman over Young 31%-17%. state Sen. Napoleon Harris in the upcoming primary, if limited polling is correct, but IOWA – Chuck Grassley (R) elected 1980 (54%), her margin will be analyzed as an indicator of the strength of her 1986 (66%), 1992 (70%), 1998 (68%), 2004 (70%), 2010 campaign. (64%). March 18 filing deadline. June 7 primary. Kirk has won tough, close races before and had $3.8 million on hand Grassley’s job approval rating is solid, and he has been leading a field of at the end of the year. But the Republican will struggle to win in Illinois underwhelming challengers. But some Democrats believe the senator’s in a presidential year. The last Illinois Republican to win a Senate race in resistance to Obama nominating a Supreme Court justice could shake a presidential year was Sen. Charles Percy, who was re-elected in 1972 up the race. Former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge, 72, just jumped into the race. over Democratic Rep. Roman Pucinski, 61 percent to 37 percent. Richard Defeating Grassley (and his $4.4 million in the bank on Dec. 31) still Nixon won Illinois that cycle with 59 percent, so Percy’s performance sounds like a far-fetched scenario. Safe Republican. wasn’t particularly impressive. Public Policy Polling (D)(IVR), Dec. 10-13 (RVs)--General Election Republicans are hoping the April trial involving a whistleblower ballots: Grassley over former state Sen. Tom Fiegen 54%-29%, Grassley during Duckworth’s time at state department of veterans’ affairs will over state Sen. Hogg 54%-29%. Grassley over Krause 53%-28%. Grassley be a game-changer for the Senate race. Until that happens, Kirk should job rating: 53% approve/33% disapprove. IDs: Fiegen 4% favorable/13% be considered at least a narrow underdog for re-election. Toss-Up/Tilt unfavorable, Hogg 8% favorable/15% unfavorable, Krause 8% favorable/15% Democratic. unfavorable. Southern Illinois Univ-Carbondale, late Feb. (LVs)-Dem Primary ballot: Duckworth 52%, Zopp 6%, Harris 4%. GOP Primary ballot: Kirk over James KANSAS – Jerry Moran (R) elected 2010 (70%). June Marter 53%-14%. Kirk job rating: 39% approve/31% disapprove. 1 filing deadline. Aug. 2 primary.Former NRSC Chairman Jerry Moran had $3.1 million in the bank at the end of the year and does INDIANA – Open; Dan Coats (R) not seeking re- a better job of getting around the state than his colleague, Pat Roberts, election. May 3 primary. GOP Rep. Todd Young’s campaign who struggled in the 2014 GOP primary. There isn’t any buzz about this nearly committed the colossal screw-up of the cycle by not submitting race right now. Safe for Republicans.

6 March 4, 2016 Nonpartisan Analysis of Politics and Elections Senate Overview: Kentucky-Nevada

KENTUCKY – Rand Paul (R) elected 2010 (56%). the plunge. According to normal campaign dynamics, Van Hollen should May 17 primary. Paul dropped his run for president after the Iowa pull away, but there is a precedent for underfunded, African-American caucuses and is finally focused on running for re-election. He shouldn’t candidates doing have a problem, considering Kentucky’s serious Republican lean in well in Democratic federal elections. But his presidential run gives Democrats an opening primaries in and their likely nominee, Lexington Mayor Jim Gray, should be a Maryland. credible candidate. Paul had $1.2 million in his Senate account at the end Republicans of year. Gray just started campaigning at the end of January. It’s still up to are shooting for a Democrats to prove Kentucky is a winnable state. Safe for Republicans. replay of 2014, when Republican Larry LOUISIANA – Open; (R) not seeking Hogan was elected re-election. July 22 filing deadline. Nov. 8 election. governor. But state Vitter lost the gubernatorial election last year in Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call House Minority Dec. 10 runoff. Donna Edwards such dramatic fashion that he was all-but-forced to give up his bid for re- Whip Kathy Szeliga election. Because Louisiana doesn’t hold its initial, all-party election until ($151,000) or former Department of Justice attorney Chrys Kefalas November, races in the Bayou State always develop late. ($92,000) need a Democratic meltdown to win. Safe for Democrats. The crowded Republican field is probably jockeying for two Goucher Poll (IVR), Feb. 13-18 (RVs)--Dem Primary ballot: Edwards over positions in the December runoff. Republican candidates include Van Hollen 39%-37%. former state Treasurer John Kennedy, Reps. and Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Jan. 19 (LVs)--Dem Primary John Fleming, 2014 candidate Rob Maness, and others. Public Service ballot: Van Hollen over Edwards 38%-36%. Commissioner Scott Angelle was mentioned but is running for Opinion Works for Baltimore Sun/Univ. of Baltimore, Nov. 13-17 (LVs)-- Boustany’s open seat. On Dec. 31, Boustany had $1.7 million in the Dem Primary ballot: Van Hollen over Edwards 45%-31%. GOP Primary ballot: bank, Fleming $2.3 million (with more personal money to spend, Szeliga 15%, Richard Douglas 9%, Barry Glassman 8%, Kefalas 5%, Anthony if necessary), and Maness $27,000. Kennedy is apparently trying to Seda 4%. transfer funds for a state race to a super PAC. Democrats probably need to narrow their field to one candidate to MISSOURI - Roy Blunt (R) elected 2010 (54%). have a chance at a runoff slot. But currently three candidates are running March 29 filing deadline. Aug. 2 primary.Blunt has been including Public Service Commissioner , former Lt. Gov. in elected office for nearly as long as his likely Democratic opponent, candidate Caroline Fayard, and energy executive Josh Pellerin. Secretary of State Jason Kander, has been alive. The contrast in the race is This race has a long way to go, but it most likely ends with a stark, between a long-time politician with a family of lobbyists against a Republican succeeding Vitter. Safe GOP. young veteran of the war in Afghanistan who served briefly in the state Southern Media & Opinion Research, Feb. 2-4 (LVs)--Primary ballot: legislature. Kander had $2.1 million in the bank at the end of the year Kennedy 22%, Angelle 10%, Boustany 10%, Maness 7%, Campbell 7%, compared to $5 million for Blunt. Fleming 6%, Fayard 4%, John Young 4%. It’s not hard to SurveyUSA (IVR+mobile) for Make Louisiana Proud PAC (pro-Kennedy), see a “time for a Dec. 4-7 (LVs)--Primary ballot: Campbell 23%, Kennedy 21%, Angelle 12%, change” message Boustany 10%, Maness 9%, Fleming 6%. IDs: Campbell 25% favorable/22% resonating against unfavorable, Kennedy 55% favorable/12% unfavorable, Angelle 34% Blunt’s resume, but favorable/26% unfavorable, Boustany 27% favorable/18% unfavorable, Maness Democrats have to 39% favorable/13% unfavorable, Fleming 23% favorable/19% unfavorable. prove they can win a federal statewide MARYLAND – Open; Barbara Mikulski (D) not race in Missouri seeking re-election. April 26 primary. The race to replace without extraordinary Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom Mikulski will take place in the April 26 Democratic primary. Rep. Chris Jason Kander circumstances Van Hollen is often regarded as the frontrunner because of his higher (specifically, Todd profile among Beltway insiders and his significant financial advantage Akin). If this indeed becomes an extraordinary election, Kander is over fellow Rep. Donna Edwards ($3.7 million to $299,000 cash-on-hand credible enough to take advantage of the opportunity. Republican at the end of December). But Edwards is still running virtually even with Favored, but watch for developments. Van Hollen, if not slightly ahead. EMILY’s List is back on television with its third ad boosting Edwards, NEVADA – Open; Harry Reid (D) not seeking re- while Van Hollen shouldn’t suffer from a lack of money. Both candidates election. March 18 filing deadline. June 14 primary. are trying to lock down their bases and lay claim to Baltimore, which The race to replace is Reid is set, and party strategists on both sides of the lacks a candidate after Rep. Elijah Cummings finally decided not to take aisle are pleased with their likely nominee. rothenbergGonzales.com March 4, 2016 7 Senate Overview: New Hampshire-North Carolina

Democrats are poised to nominate former state Attorney General Marist College for NBC News, Jan. 24-26 (RVs)--General Election ballot: Catherine Cortez Masto. She’s been elected statewide twice and doesn’t Ayotte over Hassan 45%-40%. have a lengthy Public Policy Polling (D)(IVR), Jan. 4-6 (RVs)--General Election ballot: legislative record Ayotte over Hassan 44%-42%. Job ratings: Ayotte 41% approve/43% to be attacked. Just disapprove, Hassan 48% approve/39% disapprove. as important, allies Public Policy Polling (D)(IVR), Nov. 30-Dec. 2 (RVs)--General Election believe Nevada voters ballot: Ayotte and Hassan tied at 42%. Job ratings: Ayotte 40% approve/42% will be energized by disapprove, Hassan 43% approve/40% disapprove. the opportunity to send the first Latina to NEW YORK – Chuck Schumer (D) elected 1998 the Senate. She had $2 (55%), 2004 (71%), 2010 (66%). April 14 filing million in the bank on deadline. June 28 primary. Schumer ($24 million on Dec. 31) Dec. 31. Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call will win a fourth term. The only question is whether he will be the Joe Heck Republicans are majority or minority leader in the next Congress. Safe for Democrats. poised to nominate Rep. Joe Heck. He’s a board certified osteopathic emergency surgeon who served in Iraq and has won three elections NORTH CAROLINA – Richard Burr (R) elected in the state’s competitive 3rd District, and had $2.9 million on 2004 (52%), 2010 (55%). March 15 primary. Democrats hand at the end of the year. Democrats are excited that former failed to recruit a top-tier challenger and are left trying to cultivate Assemblywoman Sharron Angle may run again, but she won’t beat former state Rep. Deborah Ross into a serious threat to Burr. That Heck in a primary. assumes the former ACLU state director wins the primary in a couple This should be a fascinating matchup between a battle-tested member of weeks. Burr also has a primary from 2014 candidate Greg Brannon, of Congress who represents a quarter of the state and a former statewide but shouldn’t have a problem. elected official who hasn’t had a particularly serious contest. The race is Burr had $5.3 million in the bank on Dec. 31 compared to Ross, who likely to be close and competitive and potentially vulnerable to the swing had just $453,000, but the increasing competitiveness of the Tar Heel State of the presidential race. Republican Dean Heller defeated Democratic probably guarantees a close race. In 2014, Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan Rep. Shelley Berkley, 46-45 percent, in 2012 in the last open-seat race in outspent her challenger, Republican Thom Tillis, 2-to-1 and still lost. The Nevada in a presidential year. Pure Toss-Up. race is Lean Republican, but closer to Republican Favored than Toss-Up.

NEW HAMPSHIRE – Kelly Ayotte (R) elected 2010 (60%). June 10 filing deadline. Sept. 13 primary.The matchup is set for one of the most competitive Senate races in the Candidate Conversation country: Ayotte vs. Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan. Both women started the race with high name identification, positive images, and good Jack Martins (R) job approval numbers. But time will tell how well they hold up. Candidate for New York’s 3rd Ayotte finished District December with $6.3 Interview Date: Feb. 23, 2016 million in the bank Date of Birth: June 19, 1967; (compared to $1.6 New York, N.Y. million for Hassan) Education: American Univ. (1988); St. John’s law school

and challenged the Meredith Dake-O’Connor/CQ Roll Call (1991) governor to a People’s Political Office:State Senator; Mineola Village Trustee (former) Pledge, limiting Current Outlook: Martins is the front-runner for the GOP nomination outside money. But in the open seat left by retiring-Democratic Rep. Steve Israel. Democrats Hassan didn’t jump at will likely have a competitive primary, and the general election should be Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call the chance to do what Maggie Hassan very competitive as well. Elizabeth Warren Evaluation: Martins wasn’t charismatic, but he was warm and proposed in Massachusetts and Jeanne Shaheen proposed in last cycle’s personable and clearly comfortable in his own skin. He’s survived some Granite State race, and it’s unclear whether Ayotte gained any support competitive races for the state senate, but this race will be a significantly out of the proposal. higher level. Martins will need to define himself as a moderate The senator has often had a consistent, albeit narrow, advantage in the Republican, who has been friendly on labor and environmental issues in the Legislature, before Democrats paint him as a conservative ideologue. race, but Ayotte could fall victim to the tide of the presidential race, if one Republicans aren’t on offense in many districts across the country, but develops against the GOP. Toss-Up/Tilt Republican, but closer to Pure Martins looks credible enough to keep this seat in play this fall. Toss-Up than Lean Republican.

8 March 4, 2016 Nonpartisan Analysis of Politics and Elections Senate Overview: North Dakota-Pennsylvania

SurveyUSA (IVR), Feb. 14-16 (LVs)--General Election ballots: Burr over favorable/31% unfavorable, Portman 42% favorable/18% unfavorable, Sittenfeld Ross 45%-37%. Burr over Spring Lake Mayor Chris Rey 46%-34%. Burr over 7% favorable/7% unfavorable. Portman job rating: 49% approve/24% disapprove. businessman Kevin Griffin 45%-35%. Burr job rating: 34% approve/41% disapprove. Baldwin Wallace Univ., Feb. 11-20 (LVs)--General Election ballots: Portman GOP Primary ballot: Burr 45%, Brannon 14%, Larry Holmquist 6%, Paul Wright over Strickland 44%-40%. Portman over Sittenfeld 51%-26%. 6%. Dem Primary ballot: Ross 30%, Griffin 7%, Rey 5%, Ernest Reeves 3%. Public Policy Polling (D)(IVR), Jan. 12-14 (LVs)--Dem Primary ballot: High Point Univ., Jan. 30-Feb. 4 (LVs)--GOP Primary ballot: Burr 46%, Strickland 61%, Sittenfeld 10%, Prather 10%. Strickland over Sittenfeld Brannon 10%, Wright 5%, Holmstead 2%. 64%-15%. IDs: Strickland 53% favorable/26% unfavorable, Sittenfeld 10% Public Policy Polling (D)(IVR), Jan. 18-19 (RVs)--General Election favorable/16% unfavorable, Prather 7% favorable/14% unfavorable. ballots: Burr over Ross 43%-33%. Burr over Rey 44%-32%. Burr over Griffin Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D), Oct. 24-28 (LVs)--General Election 42%-35%. Burr job rating: 32% approve/35% disapprove. IDs: Ross 13% ballot: Strickland and Portman tied at 47%. Portman job rating: 33% approve/33% favorable/15% unfavorable, Rey 9% favorable/14% unfavorable, Griffin 8% disapprove. IDs: Strickland 35% warm/32% cold, Portman 26% warm/26% cold. favorable/14% unfavorable. OKLAHOMA - James Lankford (R) elected 2014 NORTH DAKOTA – John Hoeven (R) elected 2010 (68%). April 15 filing deadline. June 28 primary. (76%). April 11 filing deadline. June 14 primary. If Lankford ($770,000 in the bank on Dec. 31) was elected to the remainder Hoeven runs again, he wins. If he doesn’t, another Republican shouldn’t of GOP Sen. Tom Coburn’s term in 2014. The freshman looks to have a have any problem holding the seat. Hoeven had $2.2 million in the bank long career ahead of him, if he wants it. Safe for Republicans. on Dec. 31. Safe for Republicans. OREGON – Ron Wyden (D) elected Jan. 1996 (48%), OHIO – Rob Portman (R) elected 2010 (57%). March 1998 (61%), 2004 (63%), 2010 (57%). March 8 filing 15 primary. Portman is on pace to raise and spend more than any deadline. May 17 primary. Last year, some liberal groups tried other senator in the to stir up a primary challenger to Wyden ($6.6 million on hand at the end country, and he might of the year) because they disagreed with his handling of trade issues. But need every penny. those efforts have come up empty. As have any Republican effort to find The incumbent had a credible challenger. Wyden is Safe. nearly $13 million in his campaign account PENNSYLVANIA – Pat Toomey (R) elected 2010 on Feb. 24 but has also (51%). April 26 primary. Toomey defeated Democrat Joe Sestak been trailing former by 2 points in 2010, a great Republican year, and is likely headed for Gov. Ted Strickland in another close contest. The senator appears to have plenty of money most general election ($9.6 million in the bank on Dec. 31) and a piece of bipartisan legislation matchups. Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom to tout (the Manchin-Toomey gun legislation), but he’ll likely need Ted Strickland Even though he crossover voters from the presidential race in order to survive. lost re-election to John Kasich in 2010, Strickland started this race with Democrats are working through a competitive primary between relatively favorable ratings, including higher and more positive name Sestak ($2.6 million) and former state environmental protection secretary identification than Portman. The former governor seems to be still kicking Katie McGinty ($1.2 million) and John Fetterman ($132,000), the mayor of the rust off his political machine (he had a modest $2 million in the bank a small Pittsburgh suburb who looks more like a biker than a senator. on Feb. 24), but he is still very much in the game. The Democratic establishment prefers McGinty because they are Strickland shouldn’t have trouble defeating young Cincinnati City more confident she Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld in the upcoming primary. But that race has will run the campaign gotten more attention than Democrats initially anticipated or would necessary to defeat have liked, and it’s apparently serious enough to call in the heavy an incumbent. Sestak artillery with endorsements for Strickland by President Obama and Vice runs to the beat of his President Biden. own drum, and that There are a couple of key races within the race: one to define Portman nearly got him elected among voters who have forgotten him since 2010 and the other to in 2010. It looks like redefine Strickland’s tenure as governor and more recent jobs. he’s doing the same Democrats are banking on presidential level turnout boosting thing this cycle. Meredith Dake-O’Connor/CQ Roll Call Strickland. But Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown won re-election in Katie McGinty Either Sestak or 2012 with just 51 percent, so the presidential year is just one part of the McGinty is likely to equation. Move from Lean Republican to Toss-Up/Tilt Republican. give Toomey a serious challenge in November. Democrats believe the Quinnipiac Univ., Feb. 16-20 (RVs)--General Election ballots: Strickland over Supreme Court will be an issue after the senator has said he wouldn’t Portman 44%-42%. Portman over Sittenfeld 48%-29%. IDs: Strickland 42% consider a nominee from President Obama and they will try to tie him to rothenbergGonzales.com March 4, 2016 9 Senate Overview: South Carolina-Wisconsin

Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, even though he endorsed Rubio. Toss-Up/ WASHINGTON – Patty Murray (D) elected 1992 Tilt Republican, but could get even more competitive. (54%), 1998 (58%), 2004 (55%), 2010 (52%). May 20 Franklin & Marshall College, Feb. 13-21 (RVs)--Dem Primary ballot: Sestak filing deadline. Aug. 2 top-two primary. Murray hasn’t 21%, McGinty 12%, Fetterman 8%. Toomey job rating: 3% excellent/ 23% had a landslide in years and, each cycle, Republicans are tempted to good/ 31% only fair/ 17% poor. Toomey ID: 29% favorable/33% unfavorable. compete in the Evergreen State. But Republicans haven’t won a Senate Harper Polling (R)(IVR), Jan. 22-23 (LVs)--Dem Primary ballot: Sestak race in Washington in over two decades. Murray finished December with 33%, McGinty 28%, Fetterman 11%. IDs: Sestak 54% favorable/20% nearly $6 million in her campaign account. Safe for Democrats. unfavorable, McGinty 49% favorable/19% unfavorable, Fetterman 27% favorable/20% unfavorable. WISCONSIN – Ron Johnson (R) elected 2010 (52%). Franklin & Marshall College, Jan. 18-23 (RVs)--Dem Primary ballot: Sestak June 1 filing deadline. August 9 primary.Republicans 17%, McGinty 13%, Fetterman 6%. Toomey job rating: 4% excellent/29% are emboldened by considerable gains during midterm elections and good/34% only fair/17% poor. confident in their data operation after Gov. Scott Walker’s multiple elections. But Wisconsin hasn’t been a hospitable place to GOP SOUTH CAROLINA – Tim Scott (R) appointed Jan. candidates in presidential years. GOP strategists try to explain away 2013, elected 2014 (61%). March 30 filing deadline. those losses individually, but the bottom line is that if the election June 14 primary. The only black Republican senator should be safe were held today, Johnson would lose to former Democratic Sen. Russ for re-election to a full term. Scott had $4.6 million on hand on Dec. 31 Feingold. and no credible challenger in sight. He could be mentioned as a potential Republicans have an opportunity to redefine Feingold as someone vice presidential candidate if Rubio somehow makes it through the who is too liberal for the state, has changed his stance on campaign primary. Safe for Republicans. finance, and is the politician in race, considering he held office longer than Johnson. But Johnson is the incumbent, albeit with lower name SOUTH DAKOTA -- John Thune (R) elected 2004 identification than Feingold, which gives both sides an opportunity to (51%), 2010 (unopposed). March 29 filing deadline. paint a picture of the senator. Democrats believe Johnson is both too June 7 primary. Thune is raising serious money for a race that conservativecaLENDar and doesn’t pay enough2016 attention to constituent service. doesn’t exist. The former Biola basketball star had $11.4 million on hand Feingold’sMarch 5 fundraisingGop: Kansas, has Kentucky, been good maine ($4.8 caucuses, million louisianaon hand primaryon Dec. 31), at the end of the year. That’s just a couple million behind what the DSCC but Johnson dem:had $4.4 louisiana million primary, and can Nebraska spend caucushis own money to make up had in the bank at the end of January. Safe for Republicans. theMarch difference. 6 dem: maine caucus We’re maintaining our Pure Toss-Up rating for now. But over the Gop: puerto rico primary UTAH – Mike Lee (R) elected 2010 (62%). March 17 next couple of months, there will likely be more survey data that should March 8 Gop: idaho, michigan, mississippi primaries, Hawaii caucus filing deadline. April 23 nominating convention. confirm where this race is headed- and it’s not likely to be good for June 28 primary. Lee had a modest $1.1 million in the bank on Dec. Johnson. dem: michigan, mississippi primaries 31, but he has done a good job of neutralizing some of his establishment MarchMarquette 10 Gop Univ. presidential Law School, debate, Feb. 18-21 miami, (RVs)--General florida (cNN) Election ballot: critics. The NRSC will be behind Lee if someone tries to take him on. Safe FeingoldMarch 15over Gop:Johnson florida, 49%-37%. illinois, missouri, North carolina, ohio primaries. for Republicans. Marquettedem: Univ. florida, Law School, illinois, Jan. missouri, 21-24 (LVs)--GeneralNorth carolina, ohioElection primaries. ballot: Feingold over Johnson 51%-40%. IDs: Johnson 29% favorable/37% unfavorable, March 21 Gop presidential debate, salt lake city, utah VERMONT – Pat Leahy (D) elected 1974 (50%), 1980 Feingold 46% favorable/33% unfavorable. (50%), 1986 (63%), 1992 (54%), 1998 (72%), 2004 (71%), McLaughlin & Assoc. (R) for Let America Work (R), Nov. 16-18 (LVs)-- 2010 (64%). May 26 filing deadline. Aug. 9 primary. General Election ballot: Feingold over Johnson 45%-44%. Leahy is the other Vermont senator running for office this cycle. He had Marquette Univ. Law School, Nov. 12-15 (RVs)--General Election $2.7 million in the bank at the end of the year and no serious challenger ballot: Feingold over Johnson 49%-38%. IDs: Feingold 42% favorable/36% in sight, as long as he files to run in a couple months. Safe for Democrats. unfavorable, Johnson 27% favorable/38% unfavorable.

caLENDar2016 March 5 Gop: Kansas, Kentucky, maine caucuses, louisiana primary March 10 Gop presidential debate, miami, florida (cNN) dem: louisiana primary, Nebraska caucus March 15 Gop: florida, illinois, missouri, North carolina, ohio primaries. March 6 dem: maine caucus dem: florida, illinois, missouri, North carolina, ohio primaries. Gop: puerto rico primary March 21 Gop presidential debate, salt lake city, utah March 8 Gop: idaho, michigan, mississippi primaries, Hawaii caucus April 3 opening day dem: michigan, mississippi primaries

10 March 4, 2016 Nonpartisan Analysis of Politics and Elections

caLENDar2016 Feb. 6 Gop debate, Goffstown, New Hampshire (abc) Feb. 17 pitchers & catchers report to spring training Feb. 7 super bowl 50, santa clara, california (cbs) Feb. 20 Nevada presidential caucuses Feb. 9 New Hampshire presidential primary Feb. 25 Gop debate, Houston, texas (cNN/telemundo) Feb 11 dem presidential debate, milwaukee, Wisconsin (pbs) Feb. 27 south carolina presidential primary Feb. 13 Gop debate, Greenville, south carolina (cbs)