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2016 Senate Overview: Trump Looms Over Fight for the Majority This issue brought to you by 2016 Senate Overview: Trump Looms Over VOLUME 39, NO. 5 Fight for the Majority MARCH 4, 2016 By Nathan L. Gonzales Twelve months ago, no one imagined billionaire Donald J. Trump 2016 Senate Ratings would be in firm control of the Republican Party’s presidential nominating process. And the past year is peppered with handicapping Pure Toss-Up mistakes as everyone tried to fit Trump into Johnson (R-WI) historical election molds. FL Open (Rubio, R) On the surface, Trump looks like anything NV Open (Reid, D) from a drag to a disaster for Republicans in down-ballot races if he is the GOP Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat Toss-Up/Tilt Republican presidential nominee. But Trump’s appeal Kirk (R-IL) Ayotte (R-NH) has been so difficult to predict in the primary that it’s not unreasonable to Portman (R-OH)# consider that his general election demise isn’t necessarily automatic. Toomey (R-PA) GOP strategists and vulnerable senators would certainly rather run with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at the top of the ticket. But there is clearly energy Lean Democrat Lean Republican behind Trump’s candidacy, and new, anti-establishment voters could help Bennet (D-CO) Burr (R-NC) Republicans in competitive states. At the same time, Trump’s outrageous Democrat Favored Republican Favored and offensive remarks could cause problems for Republicans among Blunt (R-MO) moderate voters and Republicans who are embarrassed by his actions. Republicans are taking some solace in President Barack Obama’s McCain (R-AZ) mediocre job approval ratings and former Secretary of State Hillary IN Open (Coats, R) Clinton’s slumping favorability ratings. Safe Democrat Safe Republican Vulnerable GOP senators including Mark Kirk of Illinois, Ron Johnson of Blumenthal (D-CT) Boozman (R-AR) Wisconsin, Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, Rob Portman of Ohio, and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania could face the unenviable task of trying to declare Leahy (D-VT) Isakson (R-GA) independence from Trump while capturing the energy of his supporters. Murray (D-WA) Lankford (R-OK) Their five states, along with Rubio’s open seat in Florida and Schatz (D-HI) Crapo (R-ID) Democrat Harry Reid’s open seat in Nevada, will likely determine Schumer (D-NY) Grassley (R-IA) which party controls the Senate next year. But it’s possible other states, Wyden (D-OR) Hoeven (R-ND) including Colorado, North Carolina, Missouri and Arizona, could move onto the playing field based on the top of the ticket dynamics. CA Open (Boxer, D) Lee (R-UT) Democratic strategists believe Republicans’ lack of action toward GOP DEM MD Open (Mikulski, D) Moran (R-KS) Obama’s upcoming Supreme Court nominee will give them a fresh issue. 114th Congress 54 46 Murkowski (R-AK) Republican strategists believe the SCOTUS issue could energize their GOP DEM Paul (R-KY) conservativeNot base up and this don’t cycle see great30 general36 election risk, particularly when 114th Congress 54 46 Scott (R-SC) they believe Currentlyjobs, the economy Safe and national 8security will be at the forefront. The Senate majority is still firmly up for grabs, with a broad range of Not up this cycle 30 36 Shelby (R-AL) Competitive 10 2 potential outcomes (from minimal net change to significant Democratic Currently Safe 14 8 Thune (R-SD) gains) depending on the presidential race and national mood. Democrats Competitive 10 2 LA Open (Vitter, R) need to gain five seats for a majority. Takeovers in Italics # moved benefi ting Democrats, If there is one thing we’ve learned this cycle, it is don’t assume you know * moved benefi ting Republicans exactly what Trump is doing and how it will impact the electoral landscape. RothenbergGonzales.com ROTHENBERGGONZALES.COM January 9, 2015 3 Four Early Lessons From 2016 Presidential Ratings the Presidential Race (Electoral Votes) Pure Toss-Up (69) By Nathan L. Gonzales Colorado (9) Ohio (18) Republicans and Democrats are still sorting through their presidential Florida (29) Virginia (13) primaries, but there are already a handful of lessons to be learned. The candidate with the most money doesn’t always win. Vermont Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic (14) Toss-Up/Tilt Republican (15) Sen. Bernie Sanders loves to claim that the people with the most money New Hampshire (4) North Carolina (15) control our elections. But former Florida Gov. Wisconsin (10) Jeb Bush’s campaign just proved them wrong. He spent tens of millions of dollars more than Lean Democratic (32) Lean Republican (0) the rest of his competitors and still lost. Money Iowa (6) is a significant factor in campaigns, but not necessarily the defining factor. The quality of Nevada (6) the candidate and campaign matter, along with the dynamic of the field Pennsylvania (20) and overall political climate. The candidate with the most donors doesn’t always win. Sanders loves Democrat Favored (38) Republican Favored (48) to rail on “big money” in politics and touts over 3 million contributions Michigan (16) Arizona (11) from over 1.3 million contributors. But unless Hillary Clinton implodes, Minnesota (10) Georgia (16) Sanders is not going to win the Democratic nomination. A large network of New Mexico (5) Indiana (11) contributors can be a sign of grassroots strength on the ground. But Sanders hasn’t been able to translate those dollars into votes and delegates. Oregon (7) Missouri (10) Define your opponent before they can define themselves.This is not a new lesson, but a reinforcement of a foundational aspect of campaigns. Safe Democratic (179) Safe Republican (143) Clinton allies, and many Republicans, assumed that the sheer mention California (55) Rhode Island (4) Alabama (9) Oklahoma (7) of the word “socialist” would drive Sanders’ supporters away from Connecticut (7) Vermont (3) Alaska (3) South Carolina (9) the senator. So the senator had much of 2015 to spread his message Delaware (3) Washington (12) Arkansas (6) South Dakota (3) and define himself on his own terms. As it became clear Sanders was a DC (3) Idaho (4) Tennessee (11) serious threat, the Clinton campaign finally started to go on the attack. Hawaii (4) Kansas (6) Texas (38) Clinton should have taken him more seriously from the beginning. There is a growing divide in the Democratic Party. For years, Illinois (20) Kentucky (8) Utah (6) Democrats have enjoyed watching the Republican Civil War, but they Maine (4) Louisiana (8) West Virginia (5) are on pace to have their own intra-party battle. Sanders’ longevity and Maryland (10) Mississippi (6) Wyoming (3) success in the presidential race is a function of his populist message and a Massachusetts (11) Montana (3) reaction to Clinton’s high-dollar speeches and relationship with Wall Street. As a 74-year-old senator who has been in Washington for 25 years, there is New Jersey (14) Nebraska (5) little appeal to Sanders as a messenger. If she had run, Massachusetts Sen. New York (29) North Dakota (3) Elizabeth Warren would probably be the frontrunner right now. 270 needed to win @InsideElections facebook.com/RPRPolitics Nathan L. Gonzales Stuart Rothenberg Will Taylor Editor & Publisher Founding Editor & Publisher Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] @nathanlgonzales @stupolitics The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report is a nonpartisan publication that analyzes, handicaps and reports on U.S. House, Senate, and gubernatorial elections and presidential politics. It neither endorses candidates nor advocates positions in matters of public policy. The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report is published 24 times annually. Annual Subscription Rates: Individual - $249 + sales tax • Silver License - $2,500 (tax included) • Gold License - $5,000 (tax included) Copyright 2016, The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, Inside Elections LLC. All rights reserved. 77 K Street NE • 7th Floor • Washington, DC 20002 • 202-546-2822 RothenbergGonzales.com 2 March 4, 2016 NONPARTISAN AnALYSIS OF POLITICS AND ELECTIONS Senate Overview: Alabama-Arkansas ALABAMA – Richard Shelby (R) elected 1986 (50%), ARKANSAS – John Boozman (R) elected 2010 (58%). 1992 (65%), 1998 (63%), 2004 (68%), 2010 (65%). Shelby Boozman defeated Curtis Coleman 76-24 percent in Tuesday’s primary. turned back a serious primary challenge from Jonathan McConnell on That was probably his steepest challenge of the cycle. Former U.S. Tuesday, 65-28 percent. The senator’s allies were concerned that Donald Attorney Conner Eldridge (D) is running and is energetic, but had Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz would turn out a crowd of new anti- $277,000 in the bank on Feb. 10 compared to Boozman’s $1.5 million. establishment voters who may vote against the incumbent. But Shelby It’s not clear how or why Eldridge, a first-time candidate, would be finally spent millions of dollars from the campaign war chest he has been able to overcome the 17- and 21-point losses suffered by Mark Pryor amassing for years to overwhelm the opposition. Safe GOP. and Blanche Lincoln, respectively, in the last twoVOLUME Senate races. 38, Safe NO. for 2 JAN.Republicans. 23, 2015 ALASKA – Lisa Murkowski (R) appointed Dec. 2002, elected 2004 (49%), 2010 (39% as a write-in). June 1 filing deadline (August 16 for independents). 2016 House Ratings August 16 primary. Murkowski appeared to take her 2010 race for granted and it nearly cost her. She lost the primary to Joe Miller, Pure Toss-Up (2D, 10R) but won the general election by 4 points as a write-in candidate. This AZ 1 (Open; Kirkpatrick, D) MN 2 (Open; Kline, R) cycle, there is the potential that this race gets more competitive. Former FL 18 (Open; Murphy, D) NH 1 (Guinta, R) Republican/attorney Margaret Stock is running as an Independent, FL 26 (Curbelo, R) NV 3 (Open; Heck, R) and Democrats may opt to take their chances with her against the IA 3 (Young, R) NY 22 (Open; Hanna, R) GOP incumbent.
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