Pop: 14.8m The Delta is slowly growing into a single colossal megapolis. And as controversy reigns over the continued urban development into the The Pearl River HKSAR’s northeastern territories, we dissect the future of the extravagant sprawling and see how its emergence will affect – Delta and perhaps eventually kill – Kong. By Samuel Lai Will it be the death of ? Pop: 13.55m Pop: 5.75m Pop: 10.3m

Guangzhou

◄ Pop: 4.38m Nanya ◄ ◄ Nancheng Huihuan ◄

◄ Shunde ◄ Hongmei

Humen Pop: 4.83m Pop: 7.3m

Pop: 3.95m Fuyong ◄ ◄

Xinhui ◄ Pearl River Pop: 1.82m Delta at Hong Kong

2020 ◄ West Zhongshannan ◄ Yuehuan

Macau ◄

key Loop expressway PRD highspeed train –Zhuhai intercity railway XRL Link

Artificial island

Bridge link Tunnel GDP (RMB): 135,000million Life expectancy: 80 years

Guangzhou Dongguan Zhuhai Zhongshan Jiangmen Hong Kong–Zhuhai GDP (RMB): 230,276m GDP: 98,794m GDP: 179,698m GDP: 152,291m GDP: 76,057m – Bridge Birth Rate: 0.62% Birth Rate: 0.20% Birth Rate: 0.84% Birth Rate: 0.38% Birth Rate: 0.65% Industry: Services, Industry: Manufacturing Industry: Transport hub Industry: Healthcare, fine Industry: Advanced bridge finance chemicals manufacturing Shenzhen Foshan City Town Huizhou GDP: 221,883m GDP: 146,918m Hong Kong Zhouqing ◄ GDP: 105,948m Birth Rate: 0.42% Birth Rate: 0.32% GDP: 269,279m GDP: 78,851m Port Airport Birth Rate: 0.61% Industry: Hi-tech, Industry: Machinery, Birth Rate: 1.1% Birth Rate: 1.71%

ALL PROJECTED FIGURES PROVIDED BY THE ECONOMIC PROJECTED FIGURES PROVIDED BY ALL FORECASTING SERVICE INTELLIGENCE UNIT’S Industry: Petrochemical manufacturing equipment Industry: Finance Industry: Manufacturing

26 timeout.com.hk JEROEN BRULEZ BY ILLUSTRATION YSABELLE CHEUNG RESEARCH BY timeout.com.hk 27 ILLUSTRATION BY JEROEN BRULEZ BY ILLUSTRATION

wo hundred years ago, only three mainly agricultural, with villages dotting the In 2008, the Chinese government unleashed RMB 220,000 and an urbanisation level in However, the plan involves more than as a unified, organic whole with a continuous percent of the world’s population lived marshy lands, occupying only 0.45 percent of a plan to merge the Pearl River Delta’s excess of 90 percent. just infrastructure. For now, due to China’s . It’s fitting to call it a .” T in cities. Today, more than half of all the area of China. However, since then, it has nine cities – consisting of Shenzhen, “The idea is to create a ‘one-hour-living household registration system, a person’s “This integration and development of Pearl the people on the planet are urban dwellers, seen some of the most rapid urban expansion Dongguan and Huizhou in the east, Zhuhai, zone’ encompassing all the nine cities entitlement to public services such as River Delta is of a national strategic level,” leading some to claim that this is the ‘century in human history. In a little more than 30 Zhongshan and Jiangmen in the west, and in the Pearl River Delta,” says Zuo Zheng, healthcare, education and pensions is tied to says Ma Xiangming, chief planner at the of cities’. As developing years, it has becoming the heart of the thriving Guangzhou, Foshan and Zhaoqing in the an economics professor at the his or her place of birth. But in the next few Urban and Rural Planning and expand magnificently in both size and Chinese economy, embodying – for better or centre – into a single megalopolis. Essentially, University in Guangzhou. With labyrinths years, all these barricades will be abolished Design Institute. “The vision is to enhance population, their perimeters blur, merging worse – the Mainland’s emergence as a global the blueprint proposes a spending of near of roads, tunnels, bridges across the delta, in the Pearl River Delta, enabling a so-called overall regional competitiveness with this into one another, giving rise to endlessly power – the factories, the incredible pace and to RMB2 trillion on more than 150 major as well as intra- and inter-city railways ‘barrier-free circulation’ of public services. new approach to strengthen collaboration, interconnected chains of urban zones which scale of development, the sheer number of infrastructure improvements to forge a totalling more than 4,000km, the residents Inhabitants of the megalopolis will be able upgrade industrial structure and make use of have simply been dubbed ‘’. It is a people – and accounting for nearly one-tenth of colossal network of transportation, water, of the Pearl River Delta will be able to easily to attend school or stay at hospitals with a each city’s competitive advantages.” phenomenon of our time – and one, perhaps, the entire country’s economy. During that time, energy supply and telecommunication. speed from any one of the nine cities to government subsidy at any of the nine cities. Officially, the plan involves only the nine which is most incredibly exhibited right here its urbanisation rate increased drastically from And, indeed, the plan projects some quite another in an hour or less. This is no small “Such inter-connectedness among the cities of the Pearl River Delta. But reading on our doorstep, right across the border in the 28 percent to 83 percent, making it one of the mind-blowing statistics for the Pearl River feat, considering that the entire has nine cities is beyond the conventional between the lines, there are a few more urban Pearl River Delta. most densely urbanised in China. And Delta by 2030: one megacity, 66 million a geographical size larger than Denmark urban agglomeration,” says Zuo. “Instead centres involved in this grand regional vision. It wasn’t that long ago that the PRD was in coming years, these already extravagant people, 54,733sq km, a GDP of RMB 15 or Switzerland and a wide, muddy river to of considering them to be nine individual, Indeed, one of them is Hong Kong – and our a humble, rural place. Back in 1978, it was figures are only going to rise… sharply. trillion, a per capita GDP exceeding traverse in the middle. separate cities, it makes more sense to see them involvement has already begun.

10,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 2,000,000 10,000,000 20,000,000 The rise of the PRD 3,000,000 20,000,000 2,000,000 Huizhou Shenzhen Zhuhai Dongguan Foshan Zhongshan Jiangmen Hong Kong Guangzhou 2,500,000 Since the Open Door 8,000,000 8,000,000 4,000,000 8,000,000 15,000,000 Policy was implemented 15,000,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 in 1978, the centres 2,000,000 of the Pearl River Delta 6,000,000 6,000,000 3,000,000 6,000,000 have seen astonishing 10,000,000 rises in population, 1,500,000 10,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 from mere rural villages 4,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 4,000,000 to sprawling, urban 1,000,000 centres. Here’s how 5,000,000 500,000 500,000 5,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 2,000,000 dramatic the upswing 500,000 has been... UN DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS AND SOCIAL OF ECONOMIC UN DEPARTMENT 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

28 timeout.com.hk timeout.com.hk 29 The view from the street We ask some Hongkongers their views on the impending megacity South of the border the new towns with an expressway that Over the last decade, the ties between Hong links up the eastern part of the Pearl River Kong and the Pearl River Delta have developed Delta,” says Chan kim-ching, an urban planner drastically, perhaps best demonstrated by the and a member of the Anti-forced Integration tremendous growth in cross-border traffic. The idea is to create a Group. He points out that, according to In 2013, the 11 control points along the Hong the government’s official documents, the Kong-Mainland border see a daily average of ‘one-hour-living zone’ trans-border traffic forecast figures are based 562,400 cross in both directions – a mammoth encompassing the entire on the assumption that Shenzhen residents increase from 333,200 in 2001. Cross-border Pearl River Delta can travel to Hong Kong without a visa permit. commuting has become a relatively common “If Mainlanders can come and go freely in Hong phenomenon, with government statistics Kong, this in effect cancels the border between showing that a total of more than 50,000 Hong Hongkongers has been the Chief Executive CY Hong Kong and Shenzhen.” Kong and Pearl River Delta residents cross the Leung’s stance on the Frontier Closed Area. Tang Wing-shing, professor of geography border at least four times a week for work. Last year, in an interview with Oriental Daily, and urban planning at Baptist University, And the ease and convenience of travel has Leung suggested that some 28sq km of the shares similar concerns to Chan. “If we allow naturally followed (perhaps, it has also been restricted border area adjacent to Shenzhen (an the border area and nearby regions to integrate a driver), with measures such as the Octopus- area roughly the size of Macau) may become with Shenzhen in such a way, we are actually Charlotte, 21 Lingnan Pass – a card similar to the HK-specific a special zone where Mainlanders could enter destroying One Country, Two Systems, at Derek, 24 Well, moving from England to I am neutral about it. Maybe for the economic here, it’s already like living in a Octopus card, but allowing Hong Kong without a visa or permit. The former buffer zone least geographically,” he says. “Such an situation here, this is the future of Hong mega-city! For workers [the mega Dickson, 31 travellers to conveniently ‘beep’ all the way between Hong Kong and Shenzhen would be integration in space and economics will Kong; we’ll be merging with these Mainland city] is a good idea, and you don’t It could be a good from the SAR to 16 cities around the Pearl able to, according to his vision, take advantage eventually ascend to the integration of cities. But the culture difference, the way of have to live there if you don’t want thing. Hong Kong River Delta region. of the Pearl River Delta’s development and administrative and political systems.” thinking is quite a big difference between us to. But for people who already live would have more In addition, there are several significant become a thriving commercial . This is, without doubt, quite a divisive issue. and the Mainland. I think the citizens cannot near there, having that put upon business and be pieces of infrastructure being built in Hong Recently, the issue has been rekindled with And while voices such as Chan and Tang hold stop this happening – it will happen anyway, them, they probably won’t see more developed Kong, further increasing the connectivity of the the controversies surrounding the northeast deep concerns about a de facto border-free we can’t stop it. that as a good idea. commercially. city to the North and West, bringing us into the territories development – a plan to create arrangement, others see the integration of Pearl River Delta’s ‘one-hour living zone’. Most three new towns in the far reaches of the Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta as an notably, the controversial 140km-long Express HKSAR very close to the Frontier Closed inexorable development. Rail Link, with its terminus in West Kowloon, Region. The government has repeatedly stated “We are right next to the world’s second will reduce the travel time between Hong Kong that the development plan is not designed to largest economy and are disproportionately and Guangzhou to a mere 48 minutes when it merge Hong Kong with Shenzhen and only outsized. Realistically, it is simply not is operational in 2015. And then there’s the aims to resolve our city’s housing problem. possible to stop the flow of people and capital 35.6km-long Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao However, the geographical proximity of the from the Mainland into Hong Kong,” says Bridge, the world’s longest sea-crossing bridge- towns to the restricted border area has led to Yep kin-man, a professor of public policy tunnel, scheduled for completion in 2016, which concerns that the Chief Executive’s proposed in City University. “Our economy cannot will cut the driving time from Hong Kong to visa-free zone may quickly spread to the entire survive if we break off from China either. Macau or Zhuhai down to about 30 minutes. northeastern region. For instance, consider our financial However, perhaps the development “Consider, for instance, the Liantang market. Right now half of the market value which has attracted the most concern from Boundary Control Point, which connects of our is related to Chinese Sharon, 25 Rogers, 53 I have a negative opinion of the plan. I think Gill, 24 I’ll say it’s a good plan. Because I each of the provinces have their own unique They already have a good network of do travel to China sometimes and points, but if you merge them together, transport around there… I don’t think [a that will make movement easier. people may not be able to get used to other mega city] will happen in 10 years. It depends You know inter-city, business, people’s customs, their way of thinking… how it affects me. Like if more people are moving, logistics and all things there will be a lot of conflicts. I don’t like free to roam around, if Mainland people can like that, yeah. I believe it will that. Hong Kong is very special, if you merge come here and steal our jobs, then maybe I ease the movement, especially [those cities] together, Hong Kong will lose would have a problem with it. If the market with the express train and the its uniqueness and competitiveness, and gets better, it might make more business bridge to Macau – that will bring other cities like or the Indian opportunities, then it would be a good thing. the cities closer to each other. cities will get better than Hong Kong.

Sunny, 37 Tiffany, 18 Steve, 35 It’s good for It would be positive overall… in the short I’m indifferent. It’s just like, in the [United] business, yeah. term there will be some conflicts because States you have multiple states – if you Having them as of the difference in culture but in combine some of them to make a mega-city, Shenzhen, a sleepy village one big city is good, the long term, I think changes it doesn’t really impact anything – especially Scenes from across the border because everything are good for human and economic to Hong Kong. And they aren’t tier-one in November 1979, prior to development. So I’m positive about it. becoming a SEZ in May 1980 is close. cities, anyway.

30 timeout.com.hk timeout.com.hk 31 Excess baggage Is it a matter of life or death? The mass migration Just some of the hundreds of People at Guangzhou In a city as money-centric as Hong Kong, the thousands of people crossing train station... lots of them PRD megacity’s influence on our economy the Lo border daily seems a natural place to start. Even with the rapid emergence of the Mainland over the last 30 years, Hong Kong remains the financial stronghold of China. However, it isn’t, according to some, a foregone conclusion that Hong Kong will remain as the power centre of a future PRD megacity. “If Hong Kong’s economy can be devised through a strong regional vision of collaboration with the Pearl River Delta, it can capitalise on its comparative strength and increase overall efficiency and prosperity by optimising resources of the entire region,” says Professor Chan Man-hung of the China Business Centre at Hong Kong Polytechnic University. “After years of indulging in mostly speculative Crossing over activities in the bubble economy, now is the There are a handful of ‘crazy’ commuters chance for Hong Kong to invest in something who cross the HK/China border every day. more practical through economic integration We speak to Phrain, who lives in Shenzhen with the Pearl River Delta. If not, Hong Kong and commutes to Kowloon five days a week. will decline and be marginalised as Guangzhou and Shenzhen strive to overtake us.” Why do you commute over the border? capital. Imagine what will happen to our stock Dr Fang Zhou, assistant chief research officer [I live with my] fiancé in Shenzhen. We have a puppy husky and are planning to have market if all this capital was to vanish. We do at the One Country Two Systems Research children, so a spacious flat, which we can find not have a choice to refuse integration with the Institute, is slightly more optimistic. “As the with a relatively low budget in Shenzhen, is Pearl River Delta. The key issue here is how internationalisation of the RMB continues to important to us. I think I do love Shenzhen – it to handle and regulate the integration process move forward, Hong Kong still has a unique role really has a good blend of local culture. so we can maximise benefits and reduce to play as an offshore RMB centre,” says Zhou. negative impacts.” He adds that Hong Kong still has a certain edge How long does it take? Indeed, despite anti-Mainland protestations with institutional advantages, making it hard In the morning, about one and a half hours, and and calls for an unlikely return to our colonial for any Mainland cities to replace it. “Moreover, up to one hour in the evening, as I can use the e-channel when entering the Mainland. [I’ve rulers, there is an air of inevitability about Hong Hong Kong would also act as a role model to the been doing this] for nearly 22 months now. Kong slowly integrating with the Pearl River new major Experimental Zones in Guangdong, Delta – and that’s without even considering the especially the district [the so-called

How is the process at immigration? elephant in the room: what happens in 2047? ‘Manhattan’ of the Pearl River Delta], which aims YIP BOBBY The process is straight-forward, at both Realistically, perhaps the more important to develop modern service industries such as sides. But it’s the management at the question, as Yep suggests, is how integration finance, logistics and information technology.” opportunity to address issues that the city relaxation of border controls, there are fears “We often forget that Hong Kong has always immigration in the Mainland that makes impacts on Hong Kong – both beneficially Some experts also see Hong Kong’s is not able to resolve unilaterally. “There are that, like the Central government has done in been an immigrant city,” says renowned the waiting time exceptionally long, which and negatively. integration into the PRD megacity as an certain problems in Hong Kong that cannot be areas such as Tibet and , there would author, Chan Koon-chung. “Many of us are results in unpleasant experiences. The queue time [is annoying] at the , solved unless we integrate with the Pearl River be moves to supplant a greater Mainland descendants of Mainlanders who escaped to especially when people jump queues and The rural northeast territories Delta and formulate policies on a regional presence in our city. Hong Kong during China’s political turmoil push you around – which is pretty much all Areas like these will soon make way for new basis,” says City University’s Professor Yep. “Many of these new immigrants are easily during the Great Famine and Cultural the time! towns, just a stone’s throw from the border “For instance, emissions from the Mainland recruited by the pro-establishment camp, Revolution. In fact, I am an immigrant from account for more than one third of our air the Mainland myself.” Do you ever get tired of this commute? pollution. No matter how much we do to clean City University’s Yep agrees, suggesting Absolutely! I am very sick of the commute up our part, we cannot hope to see a clear that diversity is one of Hong Kong’s greatest now! It’s tiring and frustrating at times. I blue sky unless we devise a comprehensive strengths – and something that would be worked in the Shenzhen office for a couple of weeks when renewing my passport, and clean air policy with the cities up north.” He If we are strong enough bolstered by an increasingly diverse range I found it much easier… and I didn’t have to gives another example of the quality control of people. “A city always improves by put up with rude people! of our water supply, indicating that, with in our own cultural absorbing talents from different places. Hong almost 80 percent of Hong Kong’s fresh immunity, why can’t Kong’s free and open society has allowed Would a Pearl River Delta megacity water supply imported from Dongjiang, the many Mainland immigrants to thrive and improve your lifestyle? Hong Kong government must participate in we digest what the flourish in our city,” he says. Personally I would support this idea. I think the monitoring process of the water quality Mainlanders bring us and And indeed, some, like renowned poet Liu providing transport and infrastructure together with the Guangdong government. Wai-tong, see the road of influence flowing basically provides convenience to people. make them a part of us? The problem in my daily commute is not Environmental and economic questions the other way: rather than being influenced, the procedure itself, but the implementation are one thing. But perhaps the bigger concern he suggests that Hongkongers will be the of the procedure. So I’d say whether the for Hongkongers, reflected in a poll last year hence diluting the majority of Hongkongers ones influencing. merging is going to have any impacts on my where more than 51 percent of respondents who support democracy and universal “When Mainland tourists come to Hong commute would all depend on how the idea suggested there should be a tapering to the suffrage,” says Yik Luk-fung, member of Kong, they can observe the values and is implemented, such as how the transport number of Chinese tourists allowed into the the Hong Kong Autonomy Movement. “In inner workings of a relatively more liberal and infrastructure are organised and run. city, is the impact an influx of Mainlanders time, Hong Kong will become another Tibet, society and bring these experiences back Interview by Anna Cummins may have on the city. In the face of these where the Chinese government is using mass to Mainland,” says Liu. “If we are strong new arrivals, can Hong Kong retain its migration of Han Chinese to reduce local enough in our own cultural immunity, Looking across the border The view from Phrain’s own identity? Tibetans to a minority.” He emphasises that why can’t we digest what the Mainlanders Shenzhen apartment he is not discriminating against the new bring us and make them a part of us? If we ‘Hong Kong will become another Tibet’ immigrants. Instead, he is calling for the consider them to be ‘rude’ and ‘impolite’, According to statistics from the Census and Hong Kong government to take back the why can’t we be confident enough that we Statistics department, Hong Kong is already power to vet, approve and issue one-way can influence them?” home to more than 760,000 Mainlanders, who permits. As of now, this authority belongs to It’s a question which may become more and have arrived since July 1, 1997, on the one- the Chinese government. more pressing in the coming years, as the Pearl way permit scheme – about 10 percent of the While some see a certain fear that a River Delta megacity slowly becomes reality. city’s population. A record 35 million further significant Mainland population would At least, on Liu’s conception of the issue, Mainlanders visited our city last year as alter the essence of Hong Kong, others see Hongkongers will have a say in the matter. tourists. And with the prospect of integration the city’s special and unique history as holding The alternative, we imagine, may well be with the Pearl River Delta and a slow it in good stead. tantamount to death.

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