2005

Food Supply Prospect

EWS Population Needing Emergency Food

EARLY WARNING SYSTEM Assistance in 2005 December 23, 2004

Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission P.O. Box 5686 Tell. 251-1-518050 / 158236 E-mail: [email protected] / [email protected] Website: www.dppc.gov.et T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S

LIST OF GLOSSARY OF LOCAL NAMES AND ACRONYMS 3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6

INTRODUCTION 11 PART ONE: FOOD SECURITY PROSPECTS IN CROP DEPENDENT AREAS

I. Tigray Region 15 II. Amhara Region 18

III. Oromiya Region 21

IV. Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR) 24

V. Beneshangul Gumuz Region 27

VI. Gambella Region 29 VII. Dire Dawa Administrative Council 30 VIII. Harari Region 32

PART TWO: FOOD SECURITY PROSPECTS IN PASTORAL AND AGRO-PASTORAL AREAS I. Afar Region 34 II. Somali Region 37 III. Borena, Guji and Bale lowlands(Oromiya region) 40 IV. South Omo Zone (SNNPR) 44

TABLES:

Table1: - Emergency Beneficiaries and Food Requirement by Region 11 Table 2: - Emergency Beneficiaries and Food Requirement for Tigray 17 Table 3: - Emergency Beneficiaries and Food Requirement for Amhara 20 Table 4: - Emergency Beneficiaries and Food Requirement for Oromiya 23 Table 5: - Emergency Beneficiaries and Food Requirement for SNNPR (excluding South Omo Zone) 26 Table 6: - Emergency Beneficiaries and Food Requirement for Gambella 29 Table 7: - Emergency Beneficiaries and Food Requirement for Dire Dawa 31 Table 8: - Emergency Beneficiaries and Food Requirement for Afar 36 Table 9: - Emergency Beneficiaries and Food Requirement for Somali 39 Table 10: - Emergency Beneficiaries and Food Requirement for Bale lowlands, Borena and Guji Zones 43

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 2 Maps: Map 1: Regional Food Requirements as Percentage of National Need 12 Map 2: Percentage of Zonal Emeregency Beneficiaries Against the Respective Zonal Total population. 13 Map 3: Interpolated Commulative Rainfall for the Period June to September 2004 46 Map 4: June - September 2004 Raifall difference from 47

Annex: Emergency Beneficiaries and Food Requirement by Region, Zone and Woreda. 48

E ARLY W ARNING :FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 2005 3 Glossary of Local Names

Meher Main rains from June to September and harvest from late September to January Belg Short rains/season from February/March to June/July (National) Azmera Rains from early March to early June (Tigray ) Tsedia Rains from mid June to end of September (Tigray) Birkads Traditional deep water wells Chat Mildly narcotic shrub grown as cash crop Dega Highlands (altitude >2500meters) Deyr Short rains from October to November (Somali) Ellas Traditional deep water wells Gu Main rains from February/March to June/July (Somali) Hagaya Short rains from October to November (Borena/Bale) Karma Main rains from July/August to September/October (Afar) Kiremt Main rains from July/August to September/October (National) Kolla Lowlands (altitude <1500meters) Jilal Long dry season from January to March (Somali) Sugum Short rains from March to April (Afar) Woina Dega Midlands (altitude 1500-2500meters) Enset False Banana Gena Belg Season during mid march and mid May ( Borena and Guji zones ) Haga Dry season from mid July to end of September (southern zone of Somali)

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 4 Acronyms DPPC Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission WFP World Food Program NGOs Non Governmental Organizations WHO World Health Organization UN/OCHA United Nation Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs USAID-FEWS NET United States Agency for International Development/Famine Early Warning System Network DPPD Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Department DPPB Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Bureau MoARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development MOH Ministry of Health EMA Ethiopian Mapping Authority NMSA National Meteorology Service Agency CBPP Contagious Bovine Pleuro Pneumonia CCPP Contagious Caprine Plevro Pneumonia FMD Foot and Mouth Disease BoA Bureau of Agriculture FAO Food and Agriculture Organization UNICEF United Nation Children Fund UN/WFP/VAM United Nation/World Food Program/Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping USAID United States Agency for International Development CIDA Canadian International Development Agency DFID Department For International Development CARE CARE Ethiopia ERCS Ethiopian Red Cross Society CRS Catholic Relief Service PCAE Pastoral Concern Association Ethiopia SC/UK Save the Children / United Kingdom SC/USA Save the Children / United State of America WVI/E World Vision International/Ethiopia PAs Peasant Associations WVI World Vision International ACF Action Contre La Faim LWF Lutheran World Federation IDPs Internally Displaced Peoples WBoA Woreda Bureau of Agriculture PSNB Productive Safety Net Beneficiaries PSNP Productive Safety Net Program GAM Global Acute Malnutrition FSCB Food Security Coordination Bureau

E ARLY W ARNING : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 5 Executive Summary

TIGRAY REGION Except for some areas in the central and western parts of the region, the onset of Meher rains in most parts of the region was delayed by 2-4 weeks. The rains were very low in amount and irregular in distribution, particularly in the lowlamdsying areas of the eastern half of the region. This year Meher rains withdrew early in the eastern half and timely in the western parts of the region.

The late start of the rains, its irregularity in distribution and its early withdrawal particularly in the central, eastern and south- ern parts of the region has negatively affected the crop development and its ultimate production. The production obtained this year in the region is reportedly 12% lower than the past five-year's average production

The absence of Belg rains and the poor performance of Kiremt rains has contributed for shortage of pasture in most low land areas of Central, N/Western, Southern and most parts of Eastern Zone. Consequently, the physical condition of livestock in these areas is relatively poorer than those in the mid and highlands.

On the other hand, there were no occurrences of livestock disease outbreak, unusual mortality and out migration in search of pasture and water.

Referring to human health situation there were no reports of unusual human mortality, morbidity, and mass migration due to food shortage problem in the region.

The food security prospect, particularly in the above mentioned lowland areas is affected mainly due to poor crop production and absence of other income generating opportunities.

Hence, a total of 388,646 affected people are estimated to need emergency food assistance for 6-10 months in 2005.

AMHARA REGION As compared to the situation in the past years, the onset of the rains in most parts of the region was normal and timely. Exceptions were lowlands of the Abay and Tekeze Rivers Basins, some parts of the northern highlands as well as areas in the east that share borders with the Afar region.

The amount and distribution were also largely adequate and uniform except in the aforementioned lowland areas. Moreover, as opposed to the extended stay of the rainfall, in most high and mid highland areas, the withdrawal in large parts of the afore- mentioned lowland areas were also generally premature.

The land preparation and plantation activities in most areas of the region except in the lowlands were quite timely and satis- factory. Therefore, due to the favorable weather conditions, most zones in the region are expecting very good harvest.

In addition, livestock condition in most parts of the region was favored by improved pasture and water availability, except for the above-mentioned lowland areas.

Regarding human health, nothing serious and unusual was reported. Even incidences of endemic diseases such as malaria have been unusually very minimal in all the vulnerable woredas of the region.

With respect to the market conditions in the zones, except some increments on the prices of livestock largely due to the pur- chases by government for packages, the general situations were said to be stable.

Taking in to consideration the good Meher prospect, the improved market prices and productivity of the livestock the food security situation of most people in the region, unlike some years in the past, is expected to remain stable. However, as a result of few shocks here and there 114,610 people will be requiring external assistance in 2005.

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 6 OROMIYA REGION The overall 2004-meher season production prospect for Oromiya region is expected to be better than last year and also bet- ter than the past five-year average with most highland and midland areas excelling their normal production. This good prospect is attributed to favorable weather conditions, increased use of farm inputs and increased area of cultivation. Significant increase in grain production is expected in East and West Wellega, Illubabor, Jimma and highlands and midlands of Arsi and Bale zones. In fact, serious grain price monitoring looks pertinent to avoid possible grain price collapses in these areas, especially on those inaccessible surplus-producing areas.

On the other hand, poor production prospects for 2005 are anticipated in most lowlands of the region, mainly in East and West Hararghe, Arsi, Bale and East Shewa zones, where unfavorable weather condition experienced during the last two con- secutive seasons in 2004. Five lowland peasant associations (PAs) in Arsi zone critically need immediate relief foods. The overall increases in crop production and stable cereal and livestock prices coupled with stable sources of income (other) is expected to improve the overall food security situation in the region for 2005. As a result, the number of people estimated to be needing assistance in 2005 is 479,741 (estimates for Borena, Bale and Guji zones are treated under pastoral section) external assistance in 2005.

SNNPR This year's Meher season rains have started on time in highland and wet midland areas but delayed by two to four weeks in lowland and dry midland areas of the region.

The rainfall performance had a mixed pattern in different areas of the region: generally below normal in lowland and dry mid- land localities while above normal and heavy in some western highland and wet midland areas.

During the season, lowland parts of South Omo and Gamo Gofa zones, and Konso, Derashe, Burji and Amaro special woredas have been severely negatively affected by poor performance of the rains.

During the current meher season planted area was higher than that of last year. Moreover,the overall crop production prospect in the region is anticipated to be by large better than last year, however significant crop loss was also noted from lowlands of South Omo and Gamo Gofa zones and Konso, Burji and Dirashe special woredas mainly as a result of moisture stress.

Good rains received after the second half of the Meher season has created a conducive atmosphere for adequate water and pasture availability in most parts of the region, except the above mentioned areas that experienced moisture stress during the season. As a result, livestock condition has significantly been improved in most parts of the region. In areas where short- ages of water and pasture were critical, animal physical condition has been observed to be very poor. Unusually early migra- tion of livestock was reported from the affected areas.

Concerning human health condition, no disease at an outbreak level was reported through out the region.

Due to poor crop production prospect, the food security situations in areas that have experienced serious moisture stress have been negatively affected. The population in these areas are mainly dependent on crop and livestock production and have no other options to help them cope with the problem. Therefore, 230,883 people due to acute problem are identified to require emergency food assistance in the region from January to June 2005, the number of beneficiaries of South Omo Zone are treated under pastoralist section.

GAMBELLA The December 2003 ethnic conflict in Gambella has disrupted the normal agricultural activities of the rural population. The violence has caused displacement and forced migration among the inhabitants and resulted in loses of human life and assets.

The insufficient amount and erratic nature of rains during 2004 agricultural season have negatively affected crop production worsening the food security situation of the region. As a result of the poor weather conditions, the production of major crops in the region, including maize and sorghum were seriously affected. In general, due to the effect of the above-mentioned rea- sons, total area planted and crop productions were reportedly decreased by 25% and 50% respectively as compared to last year.

There fore, the food security situation of certain part of the rural population in the region remains precarious and 49,500 peo- ple are estimated to require emergency assistance in year 2005.

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 7 BENSHANGUL GUMUZ In Benishangul Gumuz Regional State onset of Meher rains were almost on time in all zones of the region. However, in some pocket areas bordering Sudan, the amount and distribution was insufficient and intermittent.

In the month of June dry spell persisted for about 20 days in Guba, Assossa, Kamashi, Kurmuk and Homosha woredas. This adverse weather condition has shortened the growing period and destroyed planted crops in some places. Moreover, mouse infestation, striga weed, termites and stalk borer were among the problems that caused damage to planted crops.

In general, with exception of some localized areas in which production of maize and sorghum is expected to decline, the prospect of Meher season crop production can be rated normal.

Out break of livestock disease (pastruoloses), which killed 50 heads of cattle in the month of September, has not yet put under control. No major human disease outbreak was reported.

The current market condition in the region was characterized by better demand and improved prices for oil crops.

In general, the overall food security prospect for the year 2005 in the region is better compared to the previous years. However, the situation in some localized areas are precarious. Hence, about 7,970 people in the region are estimated to need close monitoring.

HARARI This year, the Belg as well as Meher rains were rated to be poor in Harari. As a result, crop production prospect is significant- ly lower than normal than that of last year reportedly.

With regard to livestock, the existing physical condition is not very poor. There is no outbreak of livestock disease. This helped farmers sell their livestock with good prices.

In addition, the government is planning to address the needs of chronically affected population with Productive Safety Net Programs (PSNB). Therefore, out side the PSNB, it is assumed that their will be no beneficiary who will require emergency food assistance in year 2005.

DIRE DAWA This year, the Belg as well as Meher rains were rated to be poor in Dire Dawa. As a result, crop production prospect is sig- nificantly lower than normal and lower than last year reportedly.

With regard to livestock, the existing physical condition is satisfactory. Besides, there are no outbreak of livestock disease. The current physical condition of livestock coupled with better market price is expected to support the food security condition of farmers.

In addition to the government is planning to address the needs of chronically affected population with Safety Net Programs. But still 38,454 people are estimated to require emergency food assistance for the year 2005 due to bad weather condition in lowland parts of the region.

SOMALI REGION Overall, Somali Region received close to normal Deyr rains with significant exceptions in some woredas such as East Imey and Danan in Gode zone; West Imey in Afder zone; Sheygosh in Korahe zone; Gashamo and Aware in Dagahbur zone; Dambal in Shinile zone; Sagag, Garbo and Duhun in Fik zone; and Bokh and Galadi in Warder zone, where the rains were either very late or poor. In most of these woredas, livestock had died during the last dry Hagaa season (mainly young stock, milking cows, and sheep) and the current Deyr rains are still poor in distribution and amount. Current pasture and water lev- els in some of these woredas are unlikely to sustain livestock through the dry Jilaal season (which ends in March 2005). They are therefore still considered as hot spots.

Following the Deyr rains, livestock are recovering from the severe dry Hagaa season. Milk production is still very low while prices are very high. Prices of animals are lower than normal in the seven Deyr receiving zones, negatively affecting purchas-

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 8 ing power of many pastoralists. Livestock prices in Jijiga and Shinile zones are good. Crop production prospects are poor both in rain fed and riverine areas due to the lack of timely and sufficient rainfall, and the absence of flood irrigation along the Shabele, Web, Ganale and Dawa riverbanks. No outbreaks of diseases (either human or livestock) are reported except for increasing incidences of endemic diseases in several areas.

Water availability is normalising except in a few areas that have chronic water problems or which received poor rains. These areas include: Danan, Gashamo, Gudis in East Imey and Todob in Adadle, parts of Duhun, Garbo, Sagag, Galadi, Bokh and Hargelle, woredas. In some of these areas the late deyr rains brought about some relief but many parts still continue to face shortages. In Gashamo some late but heavy rains were received although the woreda's water storage capacity was serious- ly reduced by the sandstorms of the last Hagaa season which buried many Birkads. Most of these woredas are expected to require water tinkering earlier than normal-by Jan/Feb 2005.

Given the above situation and the cumulative effects of past stress (due to the previous poor Gu and Deyr rains), the Region faces poor food security prospects for the next dry Jilaal season, and will continue to have serious food shortfalls that will need to be met through food aid assistance.

The number of emergency beneficiaries who require food assistance as of January 2005 for 6 months are 557,861. In addi- tion, since it is assumed that the safety net program is not expected to start as of January 2005 in the region, then the fig- ures identified for the PSNP (682,945) by FSCB will be covered under emergency assistance for the coming 6 months. As soon as the PSNP takes off both the numer of needy and the corresponding requirements will be adjusted accordingly.

AFAR REGION In normal year, the Karema rain (Meher rain) starts in late June and ends in mid-September. This year (2004) however, the on-set was late by one month on average. The withdrawal was also earlier by 3-4 weeks from the normal.

The performance of the rains was in general below average in most parts of the Region. The Short rain locally known as "Dedea" rain, which normally occurs between November and December, has not yet started.

2004 Karema rains have improved the availability of water for both human and livestock consumption particularly in Zone 3 and Zone 5. However, water still remains critical in Dallol, parts of Erebti and Berhale weredas of zone 2, Yallo and Teru weredas of Zone 4, Elidar (14 PAs.) and Dubti (5 PAs. ) woredas of Zone 1 and Kummame town of Semurobi woreda of Zone 5.

However, this year Karema rains did not have notable impact on the improvement of pasture in most parts of the Region. Except for some browses, pasture for sheep and cattle remains critical particularly in Zones 1, 2 and 4.

The livestock physical condition mainly cattle was reported to be either poor or deteriorating due to scarce or lack of pasture. Cattle deaths due to combined effect of drought and opportunistic diseases (endemic diseases) have also been reported from Awra and Golina weredas of zone 4 and in some parts of zone 2.

This year due to inadequate 2004 Sugum and poor Karema rains, income from both livestock and crop production are all con- siderably affected and thus little or no production is expected. The terms of trade are also against the pastoralists in most parts of the Region.

The number of emergency beneficiaries who require food assistance as of January 2005 for 6 months are 207,025. In addi- tion, since it is assumed that the safety net program is not expected to start as of January 2005 in the region, then the fig- ures identified for the PSNP (250,087) by FSCB will be covered under emergency assistance for the coming 6 months. As soon as the PSNP takes off both the numer of needy and the corresponding requirements will be adjusted accordingly.

BORENA AND GUJI ZONES (OROMIYA REGION) This year the Hagaya rains started on time in most parts of the zones, but late onset was reported in a number of PAs in Dire, Arero and Teltele woredas in Borena zone and most parts of Liben woreda in Guji zone. The rains started erratically with an interruption between mid September and mid October, but restarted in Mid-October after which the distribution and amount of rain improved significantly. However in Teltele and Liben woredas the Hagaya rains remained inadequate. The 2004 Gena

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 9 the most important rains of the year were also poor in many woredas of both Borena and Guji zones, although the Meher rains were generally good in Bore, Uraga and Kercha woredas.

Availability of water and pasture (particularly browse) is good in most areas except for Teltele and Liben woredas where the Hagaya rains were inadequate. However, due to poor Gena rains earlier in the year, grazing for cattle remains critically low in most lowland areas. Usually the Gena rains constitute 70-80% of annual rainfall and provide most of the moisture for the regeneration of perennial grasses and the replenishment of water points. The poor Gena rains have also meant that live- stock physical condition their production (milk and butter) were much below normal. Significant numbers of cattle and calves also reportedly died due to the harsh dry spell that followed the poor Gena season.

The contribution of the Hagaya crop to the annual food supply is usually small. This year due to the erratic nature of this rain at the start of the season, both planted area and expected harvests are much below normal, as farmers were discouraged by the erratic start of the rains. The previous Gena crop (mainly maize) has also almost entirely failed in Dire, Moyale, Arero and Teltele woredas of Borena zone, and Liben woreda of Guji Zone. Normally 70-80% of the annual grain production in these lowland woredas is obtained from the Gena crop. Consequently cereals supply in the two zones is very low.

Therefore, the total number of people who require emergency food assistance are 12,893.

BALE LOWLANDS (OROMIYA REGION) Except in the Bale lowlands good amounts of rains with normal onset and distribution were received in the zone. In the low- lands however, the rains were late (by 2-4 weeks), very erratic, unevenly distributed and with intermittent dry periods of 2-5 weeks. Hence the performance of the meher crops (wheat, barley, maize, sorghum, pulses and teff) is very poor.

Poor harvests, particularly of maize, wheat, teff and haricot beans are expected in the lowland areas due to the late, intermit- tent and erratic rains. Pasture and water are reportedly scarce in the lowland areas due to the poor rains

The prices of cereals are slightly higher than normal in the lowland areas due to poor supply resulting from the poor belg har- vest, earlier in the year. Livestock prices - particularly of shoats and camels - have risen compared to normal due to increased demand by meat factories.

Therefore, the total number of people who require emergency assistance are 7,370.

SOUTH OMO (SNNPR) The short rains normally received between September and October were delayed by more than one month, this year. Since the more important belg rains (March-May) were also poor, the impact of this delay was significant. Before the current rains, pasture and water availability and quality had reached critically low levels. Livestock became very weak and many migrated to Mago Park and around Lake Turkana in search of pasture and water. However, currently most parts of the zone have received (late) rains and the water and pasture situation has started to improve. Livestock body condition and production are still poor as pastures have not yet fully regenerated. The population largely depends on milk and blood from livestock for food, while honey sales normally provide additional income; all these are very scarce due to the poor rains.

Crops have largely failed this year due to the absence of floods from the Weito, Omo and Kibish, which normally allow for flood recession farming. Area planted along River Omo in Kuraz wereda was only 10% of the normal. As a result of poor sup- ply, grain prices are much higher than normal, while livestock prices are below normal. This has weakened pastoral purchas- ing power.

No disease outbreaks are reported, both for humans and livestock, but endemic disease like malaria and human health com- plications related to the consumption of some wild food were reported.

Therefore, the total number of people who require emergency assistance in the Zone are 95,114.

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 10 Table 1: Emergency Beneficiaries and Food requirement by Region Region Rural Emergency Food Requirement in MT Population Beneficiaries Cereal Sup.Food Oil Pulses Total Afar 1,238,873 207,025 41,140.1 4,319.7 1234.2.0 4,114.0 50,808.8 Amhara 16,453,069 114,610 12,599.4 1,322.9 2,122.4 1,259.9 15,560.3 Dire dawa 105,955 38,454 4,037.7 424.0 234.2 403.8 4,986.5 Harari 77,687 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya 22,382,411 500,004 54,357.0 5,707.5 3,145.9 5,435.7 67,130.9 SNNPR 12,900,174 325,998 31,591.8 3,317.1 2,116.5 3,159.2 39,015.9 Somali 3,342,477 557,861 80,940.0 8,498.7 3,350.2 8,094.0 137915.5969 Tigray 3,491,020 388,646 53,897.4 5,659.2 3,319.2 5,389.7 66,563.3 Gambella 173,704 49,500 4,455.0 467.8 133.7 445.5 5,501.9 B. Gumuz 539,046 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 60,704,416 2,182,098 313,750.9 32,943.8 15,656.2 28,302 387,482.4

Note:- 1. The above requirement includes the needs of PSNB in Afar and Somali regions. 2. According to FSCO, excluding Harari and Oromiya regions, the total number of safety net beneficiaries in the remaining regions are estimated 4,385,663. This figure is expected to change when the exact number of safety net beneficiaries is identified in both regions.

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 11 Regional Food Requirement as Percentage of National Need Regional Food Requirement as Percentage Map 1

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 12 Map 2:

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 13 Introduction This report brings together findings of a recently concluded DPPC-led Multi-Agency Emergency Needs Assessment. The pur- pose of the assessment was to provide indications of emergency food needs for the year 2005. The findings are based on the analysis of major food security indicators, such as climate and weather, agricultural activities and crop production statis- tics, livestock conditions, markets, additional income sources, and human and livestock health.

The report provides information on where and when emergency food assistance is required, the magnitude of the benefici- ary numbers, their relief needs, causes for any unpredictable food crisis and areas of immediate concern. Such information is intended to assist planning and implementation of appropriate and timely interventions at different levels within the relief system, both within and outside of government structures.

The geographical coverage of the assessment includes all regions of the country including pastoral areas of Afar, Somali, Borena, Guji, Bale lowlands and South Omo. 23 teams with approximately 70 assessors were dispatched for three weeks starting from November 6, 2004. 15 agencies from governmental organizations, donors, United Nations agencies and NGOs were involved in the assessment. These included:

DPPC USAID/FEWS SC/UK UN/OCHA DFID WVE UNWFP ERCS CONCERN USAID CARE EMA GOAL NMSA MOH In addition, staff from relevant line departments at the regional and zonal levels joined the various teams up on arrival at the regional and zonal capitals.

Teams estimated the number of people requiring emergency relief food assistance at the woreda level. The needs estimat- ing method relies mainly on the qualitative approach, which depends on the judgment of the assessor in the field in relation to information provided by regional, zonal, and woreda Early Warning Committees, agricultural and pastoral experts, farmers, pastoralists, and other key informants. The assessment teams received results of zonal assessments and collected other rel- evant information. The zonal assessments and other information were then reviewed and confirmed by the teams using rapid rural assessment techniques, such as:

Interviews with local officials and experts; Interviews and group discussions with key informants and households at the sub-woreda level; and Physical inspection of crop, livestock and market conditions.

The report has an Executive Summary that highlights the most salient features of the recent assessment. The body of the report is divided into two parts: Part One addresses situations and food prospects in the main crop growing regions; and Part Two addresses the same themes for the pastoral regions of the country. The report for each region is presented separately under five sections entitled: Weather Conditions; Agricultural Activities and Crop Production; Water, Pasture and Livestock Conditions; Human Health Conditions; and Food Security Prospects in 2005.

The estimates of relief needs contained in this report will be updated in July, following the Belg harvest and Gu rains assess- ment. Food needs could change either upwards or downwards depending on the outcome of the next Belg harvest and the quality of Gu rains in the pastoral areas.

Relief food distributions will continue to be implemented at a monthly ration rate of 15 kg of cereals/person/month supplying approximately 1700 kcal/person/day against minimum requirements of 2,100 kcal/person/day. Furthermore, the most severe- ly affected population requiring food assistance should receive supplementary rations of blended food (150g/person/day) and vegetable oil (50g/person/day), providing an additional 1,000 kcal/person/day.

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 14 PART ONE: SITUATION IN THE CROP GROWING AREAS I TIGRAY REGION

Basic Facts 11.13% Rural Population Number of Zones ------5 Needy population Number of Woredas------35 Meher as percent of annual crop production ------Over 90% Projected Rural Population for mid 2005 ------3,491,020 Needy population due to Acute problem for 2005 ------388,646 Needy population as percent of the rural population ------11.13% Food aid requirement in MT for emergency assistance ------66,563.2

1. WEATHER CONDITIONS

There are two types of rainy season Tigray Region Beneficiaries and Food Requirement by Zone commonly known in the region, named as Belg and Kiremt rains. Belg rains extend from the first week of March up to the end of May where as the Kiremt rains are known to start in end of June and ends in mid September. The Belg and Kiremt rain- fall seasons are locally known as Azmera and Tsdiya rains, respectively.

This year Meher rainfall has started in its normal time in most parts of northwest- ern and western parts of the region. However, in some of central and most of eastern and southern parts of the region, rains started late by about 2-4 weeks at an average. The amount and distribution of this year Meher rain was normal to above normal in the western and most parts of north western zones where as in most parts of central, eastern and southern zones the rain was very low in amount and irreg- ular in distribution, particularly in the low lying areas of the eastern half of the region. Summary

In the months of July and August 2004 there was reports of dry-spell occurrences in Rains started 2-4 weeks the Mereb and Tekeze River basins of North western and Central Zones and in most late. areas of Eastern and Southern Zones. Received rains were low in amount and irregu- lar in distribution. On the other hand, during the limited rainy days in the months of July and August, par- and have negatively ticularly in the eastern half of the region, there were adversities of heavy fall accom- affected crop production in panied by hailstorm in some localities. central, eastern and south- ern parts. 2. AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AND CROP PRODUCTION PROSPECT Major types of Meher crops usually planted in the region include barely, wheat, hanfets, teff, millet, maize, sorghum, field peas, horse beans, chickpeas, lentils, oil seeds, etc.

Though this year Belg rains were not adequate for seasonal agricultural activities, the land preparation and plant- ing activities were undertaken timely in the region. However, there are some localities in the Northwestern, CROPAREAS GROWING

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 15 Central, Eastern, and Southern zone where planting of Meher crops were delayed by about 2-5 weeks from the usual plant- ing time.

The poor performance of Belg rains and late start of this year Meher rains forced farmers to replant their land. The land, which was previously covered with long-cycle sorghum crop (high yielding), was replanted by other short maturing (low yielding)Meher crops and lately by chickpea and vetch. But all lately replanted pulses were not able to germinate and grow, rather they were completely damaged by the early withdrawal of the seasonal rainfall in the early days of August.

Most crops in the assessed zones were at vegetative and seed setting stages while Meher rains withdrew. It is well known that these stages are critical for crop development as maximum water requirement is attained at these stages.

Due to low rainfall performance in this year, the input supply and utilization was lower than the usual. This indicates that the contribution of the inputs for the yield increase was insignificant. Consequently the significant reduction in yield will disable farmers to repay their credit and compensate the overall expenses. This will intensify the loan burden of farmers

The overall performance of this year's production was very poor in the assessed 4 zones of the region as compared to nor- mal. Total production obtained in these zones is estimated to be 3.9 million quintal, which is 12% lower than the past five years' average production.

Total area planed to be prepared and actually planted this year were 690,136, and 673,435 hectares of land, respectively. These figures indicate that 16,701 hectares of land were not prepared. The reasons were shortage of rains on one hand and the farmers intentionally made fallow some of their plots of land in order to enrich the soil for next season cultivation on the other hand.

3. PASTURE, WATER AND LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS The absence of Belg rains and the poor performance of Kiremt rains has contributed for shortage of pasture in most low land areas of Central, N/Western, Southern and most parts of Eastern Zone. Consequently, the physical condition of livestock in these areas is relatively poorer than those in the mid and highlands.

The livestock feed reserve is closely linked to the success of crops since they depend on crop residues. Though, currently the animal feed (pasture plus crop residue) is available in most high land areas, low amount and poor distribution of Meher rains has affected the timely regeneration and growth of grasses in the lowland areas.

The pasture shortage is expected to be highly pronounced in the coming dry months of the year. The team recognized that the available pasture reserve doesn't allow feeding the livestock until the coming rainy season. The shortage of feed will be serious in most lowland areas and dry woinadega parts of all the woredas visited. The livestock experts of most woredas in the region estimated that the available feed will only support the livestock until the month of February 2005. This at the end will aggravate the pasture shortage particularly for cattle. In response to the poor rainfall and crop performance, the price of crop residues has started to grow as of September 2004

Apart from the common diseases, this year there was no unusual disease outbreak and death of livestock reported from all the woredas.

On the other hand, in Tsibet kebele of Enda Mekhoni, it is reported that since last year there is a newly emerged livestock disease in Tsibet Kebele, which has caused the death of 7 cattle. And the regional livestock laboratory is trying to identify the disease.

Drinking water availability for livestock is not as such considered as a serious problem at this stage in most parts of the vis- ited woredas. The problem could probably be worsened in the coming dry periods of the season. Currently, the water reserve in Alamata, Enda Mekhoni and Alaje is believed to be enough for the coming periods of the year. In the other woredas such as Raya Azebo, there is a fear that shortage of water might be experienced in the coming dry months of the year. Out of the 53 water schemes in this woreda 6 of them have dried up due to the poor rainfall performance. In other woredas such as Enderta, Hintalo Wajerat, Seharti-Samre and Ofla the water shortage is highly pronounced, particularly in the lowland and dry woinadega areas.

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 16 4. HUMAN HEALTH SITUATION At the time of the assessment none of the woredas have reported any unusual human health disease outbreak, apart from the commonly known disease.

In the month of August and September 2004 most of the woredas of southern zone were highly affected by malaria disease as compared to pervious years. However the situation is now under control

Drinking water for human consumption currently is not a serous concern. But anticipation of water shortage and water relat- ed disease in the near future is growing. This year unlike to other zones the water availability in the southern zone is assumed to be adequate till the coming season.

On the other hand,the southern zone health officials have disclosed that malnutrition cases have appeared to be high as com- pared to same time of last year.

5. FOOD SECURITY PROSPECTS IN 2005 The livelihood of the rural people of Tigray Region is mainly dependent on crop and livestock production. The recurrent rain failures in the last consecutive years have weakened the asset base and coping ability of most rural households. The situa- tion is worst in the Eastern, Southern, Central, and part of the N/Western Zones.

Crop and livestock production takes the highest share to stand as the major sources of income for the majority of the people in the region. Other incomes such as wage labor, petty trade, remittance, etc contributes for about 5-10% of the total incomes of the rural people. At regional level, current year production has decreased by about 12%. Nevertheless, production lose in some highly affected zones, like Eastern and Southern zones was so significant and estimated to be about 35% and 30%, respectively. This considerable lose in this most important source of income of the rural population will definitely lead to a seri- ous shortage of food. Moreover, since these areas ares among the most chronically affected parts of the country, it is not expected that other sources of income will help to cope up with the problem.

Apart from N/Western zone where the market condition is some how stabilized, the local supply of grain to the market is observed to be scanty in volume and the price is approximately higher by 7-15% as compared to the same time of last year. Similarly, low market demand and higher supply of the livestock to the market characterizes the livestock market conditions in most parts of the region. The situation in southern and eastern zone gives a clue of the problem in livestock prices that dropped by about 14.4% as compared to last year.

Hence, unless a proportion of the population in the region is assisted, through emergency relief food, the poor harvest of this year and low level of copping strategies will not be sufficient to fill the food gap of the rural population in the region for the coming year. Therefore, a total of 388,646 people will require emergency food assistance for a period of 6-10 months in year 2005.

Table 2 : Emergency Beneficiaries and food requirement for Tigray

Zone Emergency Food Requirement Beneficiaries Cereal Sup.Food Oil Pulses Total C.Tigray 123,382 18,247.9 1,916.0 1080.8 1,824.8 22,536.1

E.Tigray 110,601 14,931.1 1,567.8 224.0 1,493.1 18,439.9

S.Tigray 131,048 17,691.4 1,857.6 1,162.7 1,769.1 21,848.9

W.Tigray 23,616 3,027.0 317.8 877.6 302.7 3,738.4 Total 388,646 53,897.4 5,659.2 3,319.2 5,389.7 66,563.3

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 17 PART ONE: SITUATION IN THE CROP GROWING AREAS II: AMHARA REGION

Basic Facts Number of zones ------10 0.7% Rural population Needy population Number of woredas ------106 Meher as percent of Annual crop production ------over 90% Projected rural population for mid 2005 ------16,453,069 Needy population due to Acute problem for 2005 ------114,610 Needy population as percent of rural population------0.7% Food aid requirement in MT for emergency assistance ------15,560.3

1. WEATHER CONDITIONS: As a whole, the onset of Meher rains in most of the zones of the region was said to be about normal. However, in spite of the time- liness in most parts of the region particularly in the high and mid highland areas, Meher rains were delayed by up to two to three weeks in pock- et lowland areas that are mostly located in Abay and Tekeze River Basins as well as areas that border Afar region.

As opposed to the favorable amount and distri- bution in the mid and high land former areas, the situation in lowland areas was character- ized by late onset, uneven and erratic distri- butions, most notably at the initial stages of crop development. The following lowland were among the most moisture stressed areas of the region: lowlands of Goncha Siso Enese, Enebssie Sar Midir and Shebel Berenta woredas of East Gojjam, Lay Gayint, Tach Gayint and Simada woredas of South Gondar, Adiarkay, East and West Belessa of North Gondar, Mekdela, Debresina and Sayint woredas of South Wollo as well as kola areas Sekota and Ziquala of Wag Hemra zone. Furthermore, lowland areas that boarder the Summary Afar region in the east were also hit by considerable shortages of rain. The situation

was severe in some areas of Kobo in North Wollo, Worebabo and Kallu in South Wollo Onset and distribution of and dry lowland areas of Oromiya and North Shoa zones that are adjacent to the Afar rains were normal, ade- region. quate and uniform in most parts. Onset delayed rains The withdrawal of the rainfall in most parts of Amhara region was said to be somewhat were reported in some low- late. Nevertheless, the situation in most parts of Wag Hemra and North Wollo zones as lands of Abay and Tekeze well as the aforementioned lowland areas was characterized by a premature cessation, Rivers Basins, some parts of the northern highlands as early as the third week or the end of August. There were no major adversities like and areas in the east that hailstorm and flooding in most parts of the region during the season. border Afar. Most zones expect very 2. AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AND CROP PRODUCTION PROSPECTS: good harvest. Given the conducive weather conditions during the season in most parts of the region, the land preparation activities especially in the highland and midland areas were generally very good. The situa- tion was particularly much satisfactory in East Gojjam, North and South Gondar, Oromiya and North Shoa zones CROPAREAS GROWING

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 18 where the Belg was better in amount and distribution.

As far as the timeliness of the plantation activities were concerned, in the high and mid highlands of almost all zones it was by and large timely and full-fledged. However, the tempo in the kola areas was sluggish with the plantation of such crops as Teff, which was pushed by two to three weeks. Moreover, as a result of the lingering scarcity of the moisture situation as well as the extended dry spells at the initial threshold of the main season, thus mainly in May and June, some farmers like in North and South Gondar as well as North Wollo were also compelled to replant their wilting long cycle and potato crops with Teff and other late planted crops. Such phenomenon was also grave in most parts of the Wag Hemra zone specifically in the low- lands of Sekota and the whole of Ziquala woreda.

With regards to the use of inputs in 2004, a total of 524,910 quintals of fertilizers were used in the four highly input utilizing zones, namely East Gojjam, North Gondar, South Gondar and North Shoa. An average of 39% percent increase was observed compared to the utilization in 2003. Furthermore, the supply and utilization of improved seeds in these zones, has also increased from last year.

Due to the favorable weather conditions in most parts of the region, the production prospects for this Meher season was found to be very satisfactory. Therefore, in spite of the declines in coverage of the long cycle crops in areas like North and South Wollo zones and the few replacements undertaken in the western parts of the region including in North and South Gondar zones as stated above, the overall production prospects are said to be very promising. In fact, of the total 33,787,325 planned quintals, nearly 32,168,608 quintals are due in harvest in the season. This prospect constitutes about 95% of the plan.

3. WATER, PASTURE AND LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS: Resultant to conduciveness of the Meher precipitations in most areas of the region, the water and pasture situations in most areas so far remains to be stable. Except the endemic diseases, nothing serious and unusual was reported at an out- break level. The herd size of the animals is also stable. However, given the scanty moisture conditions that prevailed in the lowland areas as mentioned above, a fear is hovering over that the situation particularly in the lowland areas of Abay and Tekeze River Basins including parts of those woredas in East Gojjam, North and South Gondar and some in South Wollo zones on one hand and the dry kola areas in the east spe- cially those Afar bordering villages of North and South Wollo, Oromiya and North Shoa zones could deteriorate soon unless some showers are received sooner than later. The situation in Ziquala woreda of Wag Hemra also remains to be very uncer- tain.

As a matter of fact, it was reported that some early migrations have been already witnessed from Ziquala woreda of Wag Hemra, Bati woreda of Oromiya and some villages of Afar to areas around North Gondar, Chefa Valley and Arabati areas of Worebabo woreda respectively.

4. MARKET CONDITIONS: Given the good prospect of production in most parts of the region as explained above, the prices of crops have remained to be in a stable state of conditions. On the other hand, as a result of the good physical performance and huge purchases being undertaken by the government for packages the prices of the livestock at present have been somewhat increasing in most parts of the region except the small declines witnessed in North Wollo, which was mainly attributed to the increased supply of the animals to market. The scale up in supply was also due to the precarious water and pasture situations hovering over particularly in the lowland areas bordering the Afar region.

5. HUMAN HEALTH AND NUTRITION CONDITIONS: Currently the human health situation in all zones was reported to be very good. Even malaria, the disease that used to cre- ate havoc at this juncture of the year particularly in the lowland areas, has been inactive more than ever before. The major reasons for the decline were said to be the integrated control mechanisms such as the spray of chemicals and the increas- ing awareness on the use of mosquito net. Meanwhile, thanks to the stable food security situation, no major nutrition deficien- cies were also witnessed and reported by all the woredas visited.

6. FOOD SECURITY PROSPECTS FOR 2005: As a whole, due to the good Meher crop prospect as well as the productive state of condition of the livestock both in terms of their potential products and market values, the food security situation of most woredas, hopefully, will be very stable in the upcoming year. It is also believed that the efforts being exerted to diversify and promote micro-irrigation and income genera- tion practices through the construction of water harvesting structures and provision of different packages will also augment

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 19 the food security situation of the people. As a result, it has been witnessed that many woredas including those, which were for years under the relief programs may not need emergency assistance in the upcoming year. Therefore a total of 114,610 affected people will need emergency food assistance in the region in year 2005.

Table 3: Emergency Beneficiaries and food requirement for Amhara

Zone Emergency Food Requirement in MT Beneficiaries Cereal Sup.Food Oil Pulses Total E. Gojam 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N.Gonder 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N.Shewa 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N.Wello 76,000 8,590.5 902.0 957.9 859.1 10,609.3 Oromiya 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 S.Gonder 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 S.Wello 38,610 4,008.9 420.9 1164.5 400.9 4,951.0 W.Hemera 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 114,610 12,599.4 1,322.9 2,122.4 1,259.9 15,560.3

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 20 PART ONE: SITUATION IN THE CROP GROWING AREAS III: OROMIYA REGION

Basic Facts Number of Zones (excluding Borana, Guji and Bale Zones)……………...... …………...... 11 2.5 % Rural population Needy population Number of Woredas (excluding Borana, Guji and Bale zones)...……………...... 167 Meher as percent of annual crop production ...... over 90% Projected Rural population for 2005 (excluding Borena, Guji & Bale)...... 19,064,223 Needy population due to acute problem for 2005 ……………………..…...... …..... 479,741 Needy population as percent of rural population ...... 2.5 % Food aid requirement in MT for emergency assistance...... 64,878.7

1. WEATHER CONDITION Belg and meher season production contributes about 10-15 percent and 85-90 percent respectively, of the regional annual crop production. Despite its lower magnitude of production harvest contribution, belg season rain is crucial for both season's production and also for regeneration of pasture and water.

This year's belg rain (March to May), which is very important for long cycle crops, was on time, good in amount and even in distribution in western parts of the region, including West and South West Shewa, Jimma, Illubabor, East and West Wellega, highlands and mid high- lands of Arsi, Bale and East Shewa zones. However, in most lowland areas of the region it was late by two to three weeks, inadequate in amount and very erratic and uneven in distribution and hence rated as unfavorable for crop produc- tion . This is particularly the case in lowlands of East and West Hararghe, East shewa, Arsi and Bale zones.

The performances of meher season rains (June to September) were reported to be good in western parts of the region including Illubabor, Jimma, East and West Wellega, West Shewa, South West Shewa and highlands and mid high- lands of Arsi, Bale, North Shewa and East Shewa zones.The onset of meher rain was two to three weeks late followed by low in amount, erratic distribution and long dry spell in most parts of East and West Hararghe, lowlands of Bale, Arsi and East Shewa zones. Summary

In almost all zones of Oromiya, there had been reports of adverse weather conditions Onset of rains were on like hailstorm, excessive rain and frost though did not result in significant damages. time, good in amount and evenly distibuted in most Hailstorms that inflicted serious crop damages were reported in West Hararghe, East parts Wellega, Illubabor, and Jimma. Good production is expected in mid and high land areas. 2. AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AND CROP PRODUCTION PROSPECT Poor production is anitic- The Meher season production share to annual production is 85-90 percent in most ipated in most lowlands. parts of Oromiya. Albeit good performances of belg and meher rains in the western half of the region, the late onset of belg rains in the Eastern half of Oromiya resulted in late planting subsequently in poor performance and abysmal harvest of long cycle crops (sorghum and maize) due to moisture stress particularly in East and West Hararghe, lowlands of Bale, Arsi and East Shewa zones. The area planted has increased in the west- ern part compared to last year though no increase reported in the eastern part. East Wellega zone reported an incre- ment of 21 percent, 19 percent in Jimma, 31 percent in Illubabor, 6.7 percent in Arsi, 5 percent in Bale and 3 percent CROPAREAS GROWING

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 21 in North Shewa zones, mainly due to increase in area cultivated in resettlement sites.

The moisture stress and stalk borer infestation on maize and sorghum in East and West Hararghe necessitated frequent replanting and shifting to short cycle and lower yielding crops. In the main coffee crop (major cash crop) growing areas of the region, low production is anticipated this year due to CBD (Coffee Berry Disease) and coffee wilting disease (Jimma zone). With favorable rains in September, the other cash crop (Chat), another important source of income, showed good perform- ance in East and West Hararghe zones.

The overall production prospect of this year is estimated to be better than last year in most areas of the region. Last year's production was better than average. Western half of the region, including East Wellega, Jimma, South West Shewa, Illubabor, North Shewa, and West Shewa expects an increase in production ranging from 25 to 86 percent from last year. Highlands of Arsi, Bale and East Shewa zones also foresees more than 40 percent increase compared to last year. However, production is anticipated to be poor and lower than last year in most parts of East and West Hararghe, lowlands of Arsi, Bale and East Shewa zones.

3. WATER, PASTURE AND LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS Availability of pasture and water is reported to be sufficient till the next season in most parts of the region. However, pasture shortages were reported in lowlands of Arsi and Bale zones. These areas have been affected with recurrent droughts and persistent livestock and asset depletion. Parts of South West Shewa have also shown signs of serious pasture stresses prin- cipally due to shortage of crop residues and communal grazing land.

Water sources are sufficiently replenished and therefore no shortage is envisaged up until the start of the next belg season in March except in parts of Arsi zone where request was made for urgent maintenance of non-functional water systems. In addition, East Shewa and East Hararge zones have reported early livestock migration to Fentale woreda due to some water stresses.

The physical condition of livestock in the region is generally good and no outbreaks of livestock diseases were reported.

4. MARKET CONDITION Crop prices remained stable with some minor exceptions of increases reported in maize prices following declined crop pro- duction prospect in the eastern part of the region. On the other hand, livestock prices have shown slight increment largely due to good physical condition and opportunities for cross border trade. Processing factories also created better markets for shoats.

The plummeted coffee prices, which declined due to world coffee prices, have not yet returned back to normal and they are still below average though higher than last year. The current price of khat is also lower than last year implying that income earning from this cash crop to be lower.

5. HUMAN HEALTH CONDITION The overall human health situation of the region has been normal. No major disease outbreak was reported in all zones of the region.

The epidemic of malaria has declined in all zones of the region, except in Jimma, as compared to last year. In Jimma zone, in Seka Chekorsa and Tiro Afeta Woredas, malaria reached epidemic level. The incidence of relapsing fever was also report- ed in Jimma (not yet controlled) and pockets of Arsi zone. Malnutrition situation has improved compared to the last three months in East and West Hararghe zones but still the situation needs close monitoring.

6. FOOD SECURITY PROSPECT IN THE YEAR 2005 Favorable weather, increased use of farm inputs combined with increased cultivated lands during the 2004 belg/meher sea- son have resulted in good production performances with a subsequent good food security prospects for 2005 in the western half of the region. This western half includes East/West Wellega, Jimma, Illubabor and South West Shewa zones of the region. However, poor meher season production is anticipated in the central and eastern half of the region, including lowlands and midlands of East Hararghe, lowlands of Arsi and Bale, East Shewa and West Hararghe due to poor performances of the 2004 seasons. The expected significant decline of long cycle crops and persistent asset depletion experienced at household level may increase the vulnerability of these eastern half drought prone lowland areas which would result in critical food short- ages in 2005. E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 22 Consequently, 479,741 people will need emergency food assistance due to acute problems for the year 2005 (The esti- mates for Borena, Guji and Bale lowlands are treated under the pastoral section and are excluded from the table below).

Table 4: Emergency Beneficiaries and food requirement for Oromiya

Zone Emergency Food Requirement in MT Beneficiaries Cereal Sup.Food Oil Pulses Total Arsil 9,058 1,250.4 131.3 22.1 125.0 1,544.2 E.Harerge 292,052 30,532.5 3,205.9 1,603.0 3,053.3 37,707.6 E.Shewa 42,922 4,506.8 473.2 254.2 450.7 5,565.9 N.Shewa 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 W.Haraghe 135,709 16,243.7 1,705.6 1,093.2 1,624.4 20,060.9 W. Shewa 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 479,741 52,533 5,516 3,145.9 5,253 64,878.7

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 23 PART ONE: SITUATION IN THE CROP GROWING AREAS IV: SOUTHERN NATIONS, NATIONALITIES AND PEOPLE'S REGION (SNNPR)

Basic Facts 1.78 % Rural Population Number of Zones (excluding South Omo) ...... …………………12 Needy population Number of Woredas(excluding South Omo)...... …...... ……97 Meher as percent of Annual crop production ...... ……………...... …over 60% Projected Rural population for 2005………………………...... ……….….…….…. 12,900,174 Needy population due to acute problem for 2005 ……………………..……..…… 230,883 Needy population as percent of rural population. …………………………...... 2.5% Food aid requirement in MT for emergency assistance ………………...... 26,680.0

1. WEATHER CONDITIONS

SNNPR benefits from both belg and meher season's rains. Belg rains that usually covers the period late February to late May - particularly important for most areas of the region (in some cases as high as 80 percent of their annual rainfall) - have been significantly poor this year as documented in the belg assessment reports.

Normally meher season rains cover the time between late June and early November depend- ing on different agro-ecologies. This year's meher season rains have started on time in highland and wet midland areas but delayed by two to four weeks in lowland and dry midland areas of the region. The delay was significant in Gurage, Silti, Gedeo, Dawro, Gamo Gofa and Welayita zones, and Konso and Dirashe special woredas. Despite its slow start and erratic distribution at the beginning of the season, the rain- fall pattern has shown remarkable improvements since the first week of August and it was reported to be normal since then. Although normal cessation of the seasonal rains was reported in most of highland and wet midland areas (ceased between early October and early November), the rains have stopped much earlier than normal in lowland and dry midland parts of the region (around Summary early September). Onset of rains were timely in highland and dry There were remarkably extended dry spells ranging from two to three weeks midland areas. between late July and mid August in Sidama, Kembata Tembaro and Hadiya zones. Rains were delayed by Other adverse weather conditions, such as, hailstorm and flooding have occurred in 2-4 weeks in lowland and dry midland areas. Kembata Tembaro, Keffa, Silti and Hadiya zones, and Alaba and Burji special Between late July and woredas that resulted in big damages. Zones and special woredas that have signifi- mid August dry spell cantly been affected by heavy rains include Kembata Tembaro, Hadiya, Gurage, occurred in some parts. Over all production Gamo Gofa, Dawro, Yem, Konta and Basketo, mainly highland areas. prospect is anticipated to be good. In general, mixed performances of meher season rains were reported in the region: below normal in lowland and dry midland areas while above normal and heavy at times in some western highland and wet midland areas. Lowland and dry midland areas have suffered from the poor performance of the rainy sea- son. Lowland parts of South Omo and Gamo Gofa zones, and Konso, Derashe, Burji and Amaro special woredas have been severely affected by poor performance of the rains. CROPAREAS GROWING

E ARLY W ARNING :FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 2006 24 2. AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AND CROP PRODUCTION PROSPECT The overall contribution of meher season to the regional annual crop production is estimated, on the average, to be about 60 percent (the coverage may go as high as 100 percent in some areas) while the average share of belg is 40 percent though it goes as high as 80 percent in areas like Konso.

During the current meher season, area planted was higher than that of last year due to favorable weather conditions (partic- ularly in highland and wet midland areas) and also due to replanting of short cycle crops (as a result of belg failure which sig- nificantly affected long cycle crops). Some donors (FAO and others) have attempted to provide improved seeds for meher season for farmers who lost their belg crops. However, late arrival and scarcity of seeds resulted some significant number of belg-affected farmers to miss the meher season again.

Long cycle crops, mainly maize, had almost totally failed in many lowland areas due to the poor performances of the 2004 belg rains. Cash crops like coffee (in Sidama and Gedeo zones) and pepper and khat (in Gurage and Silti zones) had also been seriously affected this year. Enset, one of the major staple food crops, was severely hit by bacterial wilt and milly bug insect.

Nevertheless, the overall crop production prospect in the region is anticipated to be by and large good. Even in areas like Gurage where significant belg crop loss was registered and replanting with short cycle crops exercised, surplus wheat pro- duction is expected. Except those areas that have been affected either by moisture stress (mainly during the belg season) or heavy rains or those faced seed shortages, crop production prospect for 2005 is expected to be normal.

3. WATER, PASTURE AND LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS Good rains received after the second half of the meher season rains has created a conducive atmosphere for adequate water and pasture availability throughout the region except South Omo, lowlands of Gamo Gofa, Konso, parts of Derashe and Amaro special woredas where scarcity of water and pasture supply dominated. Livestock condition has significantly been improved in major parts of the region. On the other hand, in those areas where shortages of water and pasture are being crit- ical, animal physical condition has been observed to be very poor. Unusually early migration of livestock was reported from the affected areas. Animals from Kuraz and Hamer woredas of South Omo have moved into the Mago and other National Parks. These emergency migrations resulted in serious tribal conflicts and also clashes with the government (due to the National Parks invasion) in the 1999/2000 period. It also caused transmission of disease from wild animals to livestock and vice-versa. Inaccessibility of many of the rural areas to markets and urban centres has further exacerbated the existing food insecurity.

4. HUMAN HEALTH CONDITIONS There is no indication of any human health threat reported as an outbreak throughout the region. Incidence of the malaria has been reported to be the lowest this year compared to the past few years mainly due to the extended dry weather condition that was unfavorable for mosquito breeding.

Nutritional status of the population in the region is within acceptable standards except in Mareko wereda of Gurage zone and Gibe wereda of Hadiya zone where Global Acute Malnutrition rate (GAM) was found out to be 10.3 and 11.7 percent, respec- tively, which is classified as serious by the WHO standard. The serious situation in Hula wereda of Sidama zone has now been changed to the better as a result of continued supplementary feeding program. Furthermore, there are some signs of adult malnutrition (especially lactating mothers) in South Omo zone and needs due attention and close watch.

5. FOOD SECURITY PROSPECT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF 2005 In general the on-going food aid distribution coupled with good prospect of meher production in the region is anticipated to improve the overall food security situation in the region in the coming year. However, the return of relatively good rains this year may not be sufficient to end the crisis as the crisis in the region is more chronic in nature. Poor access to infrastructure, water and health facilities, lack of productive assets and extreme poverty is widespread. The recent belg failure and problems related with the current meher, exacerbates vulnerability to food shortages and erosion of assets making households more susceptible to future crises. Furthermore, the increase in cereal prices in some pastoral zones (like South Omo) and the decrease in earnings from cash crops (coffee and Khat) are limiting purchasing power for food and pushing many more peo- ple into dependence on others for survival. As a result, some portion of the population in the region will still have no choice other than continued relief food assistance for 2005.

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 25 Areas that have seriously been affected by the impact of adverse weather conditions during the current belg/meher season should be eligible for emergency food aid for the first half of 2005 until the next belg harvest season in July. Therefore, a total of 230,883 people were identified to be in need of emergency food assistance in the region from January to June 2005 (the estimates for South Omo was treated under pastoral section).

Table 5: Emergency Beneficiaries and food requirement for SNNPR (excluding South Omo)

Zone Emergency Food Requirement in MT Beneficiaries Cereal Sup.Food Oil Pulses Total Alaba 1,470 154.4 16.2 65.2 15.4 190.7 Amaro 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Derashe 2,646 119.1 12.5 40.5 11.9 147.1 G. Gofa 72,324 6,509.2 683.5 402.2 650.9 8,038.8 Gedio 11,340 1,190.7 125.0 86.7 119.1 1,470.5 Hadiya 38,934 4,070.1 427.4 263.4 407.0 5,026.6 Konso 7,560 793.8 83.3 218.8 79.4 980.3 Burji 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bench Maji 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dawaro 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 KT 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sidama 27,063 2,435.7 255.7 231.7 243.6 3,008.1 Silti 28,476 2,458.9 258.2 186.2 245.9 3,036.7 Gurage 19,370 1,594.5 167.4 91.1 159.5 1,969.2 Wolayita 21,700 2,278.5 239.2 227.8 227.9 2,813.9 Total 230,883.0 21,604.8 2,268.5 2301.90 2,160.5 26682.0

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 26 PART ONE: SITUATION IN THE CROP GROWING AREAS VI: BENSHANGUL GUMUZ

Basic Facts 0% Number of Zones ...... ……………………...... ……………..…...…3 Rural population Needy population Number of Special Woredas ………………………...... …………..…..… 2 Meher as percent of annual crop production…………...... ……...…….100% Projected rural population for mid 2005…………………...... ………539,046 Needy population due to Acute problem for 2005...... ……..….. 0 Needy population as percent of the rural population 2005…...... … 0 Food requirement in MT for emergency assistance ...... 0

1. WEATHER CONDITION Rains were rated better compared to previous year in all zones except localities in some woredas that received late and intermittent rains. The western woredas (Guba, Assossa, Kamashi, Kurmuk and Homosha,) experienced a little late start- dry spell in June and early withdrawal. On top of this some local- ized areas also faced adverse condition such as hailstorm, wind and flood.

2. AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AND CROP PRODUCTION PROSPECT Major meher crops grown in the region are Sorghum, Maize, Sesame, Millet and Neug. In the region crops were planted on time. However, there was replanting that took place due to weather and pest damage in some localities, especially in Guba, Assossa, Kamashi, Kurmuk and Homosha. According to the pre-Meher assessment, planted area in the whole region was 198,703 hectares, which is 15 % greater than 2003 and 12% lower than planned.

Low input use due to debt burden and high prices (35% of supplied fertilizer was used in 2004, which is 42 % of last year) and also low pesticide and improved seed utilization was reported. Nevertheless, production is expected to increase in all the zones. According to the preliminary findings, the total production estimate is 1,683,809 quintals, which is 37 % higher than the year 2003.

3. PASTURE, WATER AND LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS Shortage of pasture and drinking water for livestock is usually experienced from December- May- specifical- ly in Sherkole, Guba and Kurmuk woredas and some places in other areas. Major chronic livestock dis- eases are Tripanosomiases, pastroulosis, blackleg, CBPP, CPPP, PPR, Chickn Pox, and Newcastle.

In metekel zone, in September 2004, an outbreak of pastrouloses in Bullen wereda (6 Kebeles) killed 50 cattle and was not controlled at the time of the assessment. Other than these, no major outbreak of diseases was reported. Summary

According to estimate made in year 1997/8, the numbers of livestock reported Onset of rains were on were 620,000 livestock, 505,000 chickens and 136,000 beehives. This number is time in most zones. expected to increase since then. Moreover herd size of livestock during the sea- Some pocket areas son is about the same to normal. received rains that are insufficient in amount and intermittent in distribution. In most areas prospect According to the baseline data, getting adequate drinking water for human and of crop production are rated livestock is reportedly a problem in the dry months in some parts of Guba, to be good. Sherkole and Kurmuk woredas. They are expected to overcome this problem using their normal coping mechanism.

4. MARKET CONDITIONS The current prices of both livestock and crops have increased compared to the previous year. Particularly the price of oil crops is fetching high prices due to market availability and demand. The increase of oil crops in turn has brought about the increase of crops and livestock prices. Furthermore, livestock trade has both

CROPinwardAREAS GROWING and outward directions (across the border and to local markets). Generally, the market condition is

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS: 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 27 favorable for producers. The increase in price is more supportive to producers than consumers.

5. HUMAN HEALTH CONDITIONS Malaria, water borne and internal diseases are the major problems. In Metekel, UNICEF provided 13,000 mosquito nets. In Sherkole incidence of malaria and typhoid reportedly killed 52 people in September. Now the incidence was under control. In Mao-Komo there is a fear for the spread of polio and that appeared in some areas of Sudan.

In general, insufficient budget, lack of qualified personnel, shortage of drugs etc are reported to be the major problems in most woredas. Other than the above incidences, no major diseases outbreak than usual was reported in the region.

6. FOOD SECURITY PROSPECT IN YEAR 2005 The food security of the population in the region is stable. The oil crops produced this year are fetching better prices. The wild foods, hunting and traditional gold mining are additional sources of food and cash. The overall performance of crop and livestock was rated good. Other sources of food and income, although having some constraints, were not very different from normal. However, some pocket areas were affected by adverse weather condition. Therefore, about 7,970 people are estimated to require close monitoring in the year 2005.

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 28 PART ONE: SITUATION IN THE CROP GROWING AREAS VII: GAMBELLA REGION

Basic Facts Number of Zones…………………...... ………………..…...... …3 Rural population Number of Special woredas………………...... …………………..……1 Needy population Meher as percent of annual crop production……...... ………….83 28% Projected rural population for mid 2005…………………...... …173,704 Needy population due to Acute problem for 2005...... 49,500 Needy population as percent of rural population…...... ……..…28% Food aid requirement in MT for emergency assistance...... 5,501.9

1. WEATHER CONDITIONS This year, the onset of meher rains in most parts of the region was timely. Nevertheless, the rains during the season were erratic and insufficient in amount and distribution. The performance of the rains, particularly in June, was very poor and characterized by long dry spells that extended for more than three weeks. 2. AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AND CROP PRODUCTION PROSPECT. Maize and sorghum are the Major Crops cultivated in most of the woredas. This year, mainly due to the secu- rity problem, these food Crops were not timely planted. Moreover planted crops were also damaged by the severe dry spell that occurred in June. The total area planted and expected production in the region in 2004 compared to 2003 have decreased by 25% and 50% respectively 3. PASTURE, WATER AND LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS In the western part of the region, where the Nuwer people live, livestock and its products are the primary source of income. Due to the disturbance, this sector has been negatively affected both in terms of herd size & animal health situation. Currently, pasture & water availability is about normal. Moreover, there is no disease outbreak in the region. However, experts express their concern about the existing serious shortage of veterinary drugs & Vaccine. 4. MARKET CONDITIONS Due to fear on the trader's side caused by the unrest and poor production prospect, supply of Grain to the market is decreased. Thus, currently price of Grain has increased in all parts of the region. Similarly, due to low supply and high demand the price of cattle & shoats are also increased in the markets. It is expected that the pastorals could benefit from this situation. 5.HUMAN HEALTH CONDITIONS Summary Currently there is no human disease outbreak, except some increased cases of malar-

ia in Dima. Never the less, low coverage of vaccination, shortage of skilled man power Onset of rain was time- and lack of medicaments have contributed to the poor health facilities in the region. ly. However it was insuffi- 6. FOOD SECURITY PROSPECTS IN 2005 cent in amount and distri- bution. Both man-made and natural calamities have affected the food security situation in the Dry spell was reported region. The agricultural activities interrupted by the security problem in the previous for 3 weeks in June. mounths and poor weather condition will lead some 49,500 beneficiaries to require Crop production has emergency assistance in year 2005. declined compared to last year. Table 6: Emergency Beneficiaries and food requirement for Gambella Zone Emergency Food Requirement Beneficiaries Cereal Sup.Food Oil Pulses Total Annwa 27,000 2,430.0 255.2 72.9 243.0 3,001.1 Nuer 19,500 1,755.0 184.3 52.7 175.5 2,167.4 Megenger 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gambella S.w 3,000 270.0 28.4 8.1 27.0 333.5 Total 49,500 4,455.0 467.8 133.7 445.5 5,501.9 CROPAREAS GROWING

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS: 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 29 PART ONE: SITUATION IN THE CROP GROWING AREAS VIII: DIRE DAWA ADMINISTRATIVE COUNCIL

Basic Facts

Rural population Number of zones ………………...... …………………………………...... 1 Needy population Number of woredas………………...... ………………………………………. 1 Meher as percent of annual crop production……...... ………………..100% 36.3% Projected rural population in 2005………………...... ………………… 105,955 Needy population due to Acute problem for 2005……...... ……… 38,454 Needy population as a percent of the rural population…...... ………36.3% Food aid requirement in MT for emergency assistance ...... ………..4,986.5

1. WEATHER CONDITION The region benefits from two types of rainy season, belg and meher. Belg rains normally start in mid-February and end in mid-May, while meher rains begin in June and stop in mid- September.

This year, the belg rain which is important for land preparation and planting of long cycle crops, started late by one month. In April the belg rain was reported to be better in amount and distribution. However, this was followed by a long dry spell from the third decade of April to end of June.

With regard to the meher rains, the onset was also late and not sufficient in amount. After mid-August there were little showers for a few days. In September some areas received better rains that were followed by dry spell.

2 AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AND CROP PRODUCTION PROSPECT The total area cultivated and planted under rain fed agriculture in year 2004 was reported to be 12028 hectares. This figure is 5% higher than last year. Reports also indicate that there are 1961 hectares of land covered with fruit trees, chat and coffee.

According to the recent assessment findings, the performance of meher crops is not good. Meher crops are affected by moisture stress and stalk borer infestation. The late onset of rains followed by long dry spell has forced them to replant crops 2-3 times. In addition, low input utilization has `also contributed to poor performance of the crops. The current year production is 70% lower as compared to the planned and also far below normal. The main crop affected by poor performance of the season Summary is sorghum. Meher rains rated poor 3. PASTURE, WATER AND LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS in amount and distribution. In areas where mixed farming is practiced, getting livestock fodder is not a problem, Crop production because of the availability of crop residues. On the other hand, in pastoral areas the prospect significantly lower existing pasture is not sufficient to sustain livestock up to the next rainy season. This than normal. may force the pastoralists to move to neighboring woredas in search of pasture and drinking water for their livestock as usual.

Currently, except in three kebeles (Bishan Behe, Jello Bellina and Boren Jede), water availability for livestock is not a serious problem.

With regard to livestock, the existing physical condition is not poor. There was no unusual outbreak of livestock diseases. On the other hand,due to previous recurrent drought years, herd size decreased compared to normal. CROPAREAS GROWING

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 30 4. MARKET CONDITIONS The prices of cereals have shown some increase as compared to previous months, while it is low as compared to the same period of last year. Similarly, the prices of livestock have shown substantial increase as compared to last year. This is main- ly due to good physical condition of livestock and the existing cross border trade that favored traders to transport cattle from the region to Somaliland.

5. HUMAN HEALTH CONDITIONS Normally, malaria is endemic during rainy season. However, this year, there are no outbreaks of malaria. Reported cases are significantly less than last year.

On the other hand,diarrhoeal disease was reported in three kebeles (Wahel, Dujuman and Hallo Busa). But, the disease inci- dence was under control during the assessment.

6. FOOD SECURITY PROSPECT IN 2005 Therefore, considering the poor crop performance and decline of other sources of income, 38,454 people in the region are expected to require emergency food assistance in year 2005.

Table 7: Emergency Beneficiaries and food requirement for Dire Dawa Administrative Council

Zone Emergency Emergency Food Requirement in MT Beneficiaries Cereals Sup.Food Oil Pulses Total Dire Dawa 38,454.0 4,037.7 424 234.2 403.8 4986.5

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 31 PART ONE: SITUATION IN THE CROP GROWING AREAS VIIII: HARARI REGION

Basic Facts Number of zones ……………………………...... …….……1 0% Rural population Number of woredas...... ………………………………………………….……1 Needy population Meher as percent of annual crop production……...... ……………….100% Projected rural population in 2005…...... ………………………...... 77,687 Needy population due to Acute problem for 2005 …...... ………... 0 Needy population as a percent of the rural population…...... ……...0 Food aid requirement in MT for emergency assistance ...... 0

1. WEATHER CONDITIONS Harari has two rainy seasons, namely belg and meher. Meher rains normally start in third week of June and stops towards end of September.

Meher rains started in early June. During the onset of meher rains, its amount and distribution was relatively better in lowlands, while its distribution was uneven and not sufficient in midlands. In August and September shower rains were reported in low land areas. On the other hand, mid land areas received better rains from end of August to first week of October. In between the season there were intermittent dry spells that extend- ed for 7 to 10 days..

2. AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AND CROP PRODUCTION PROSPECT The major meher season crops are sorghum, maize and groundnuts. Land preparation for these crops delayed by 5-6 weeks in mid land areas, due to late onset of rains. Planting was also interrupted in low land areas due to cessation of belg rains in late April. Replanting was conducted 2-3 times in some low land areas. However, the area planted was similar to previous years.

With regard to the crop production prospect, the long dry spell that occurred between May and June affected crops like sorghum, maize and groundnuts. Maize failed in low lands and sorghum and groundnuts retarded in growth.

Even though better rains were reported in July, the rainfall shortage in August and September and stalk borer infestation also exacerbated the poor crop condition (mainly sorghum and groundnuts) in the low land areas.

The rainfall situation was reported to be better from fourth week of August to begin- ning of October in the mid land areas. However, this rain was too late to bring sig- Summary nificant change on crop performances. As a result, the crop production prospects in both low and mid lands are expected to show significant decline than that of the last Rains rated to be poor. five years average. Crop production 3. PASTURE, WATER AND LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS prospect significantly lower Except in some pocket areas (lowland), there is no critical pasture problem in most than normal. parts at time of the assessment. But, there is a fear that the existing crop residue is not sufficient for longer time.

There is no unusual water problem. At the same time, the physical condition of livestock is normal. There are no outbreaks of livestock diseases.

4. MARKET CONDITIONS Price of maize and groundnuts have shown increment as compared to the previous months. The main reason for this increase was reported to be decline in supply to the market. The current poor production prospects have also contributed for rise in maize and groundnut price. On the other hand, the prices of sorghum and Chat remained the same as compared to same period of last year. CROPAREAS GROWING

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 32 With regard to livestock, the prices have shown increase as compared to last year. This increase is mainly due to cross bor- der trade that exists in the region.

5. HUMAN HEALTH CONDITIONS There is no incidence of health problem. Report also indicates that the number of cases for malaria has shown improvement compared to that of last year.

6. FOOD SECURITY PROSPECT IN 2005 Even though poor crop production prospect was reported in some lowland parts of Harari, considering other sources of income from livestock, chat and petty trade activities and implementation of the PSNP, the current food security situation may not reach at emergency level. Therefore there are no people who will require emergency food assistance in year 2005.

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 33 PART TWO: SITUATION IN THE PASTORAL AREAS I: AFAR REGION

Basic Facts Number of Zones …………………………………...... ……...... 5 Rural population Needy population Number of woredas…………………………………..……...... 29 16.71 % Meher as percent of annual crop production………….…………...... 60% Projected rural population in 2005…………………………...... …...... 1,238,873 Needy population due to Acute problem for 2005 ……………...... …… 207,025 Needy population as percent of the rural population………..…...... 16.71% Food aid requirement in MT for emergency assistance ...... 50808.0

1. WEATHER CONDITION In normal year, the Karema rain (meher rain) starts in late June and ends in mid-September. This year (2004) however, onset was delayed by one month and the cessation was early by 3-4 weeks from the normal in most parts of the Region.

In zone 4, Teru wereda reported to have received no rains during the entire season while Yallo, Awra, Ewa and Golina woredas received only 1-3 days of rains. These rains were accompanied by high winds and hailstorms that killed cattle and shoats and destroyed residential houses. The Karema rains were very erratic and small in amount in most parts of zone 1 and all woredas of the Zone 2. In addition to the erratic nature of the rain, there was a long dry spell (1 -2 weeks) in zone 2 and 4. According to weather data obtained in Aba-ala wereda of zone 2, total amount of rainfall received in 2004 was only 41% (197.5mm) of last year (480.5mm). Similarly areas bordering Awash River in zone 5 (east of Telalak, Dewe, Arthuma and that of Semurobi woredas) reported to have received poor and erratic Karema rains during the season. In general the performance of this year Karema rains was rated as poor compared to last year and the normal partic- ularly in zone1, 2 and 4

On the other hand, the distribution and amount of karema rains were relatively better in most parts of Zone 3 and in areas bordering Amhara Region in Zone 5. Summary The Short rain locally known as the "Dedea" rain (3 -5 days of showers), which nor- mally occurs between November and December, have not started yet and it has Onset of rains were become major concern of the pastoralists. delayed by one month and cessation was early by 3-4 2. WATER, PASTURE AND LIVESTOCK CONDITION weeks. Water and pasture still The main water sources in the Region for both human and livestock consumption remains critical in some are rivers, shallow wells, boreholes, hand-dug wells and ponds. This year Karema parts. rains have improved the availability of water for both human and livestock consump- Livestock physical con- tion particularly in Zone 3 and Zone 5. However, water still remains critical in Dallol, dition either poor or parts of Erebti and Berhale woredas of zone 2, Yallo and Teru woredas of Zone 4, deteriorating. Elidar (14 PAs.) and Dubti (5 PAs. ) woredas of Zone 1 and Kummame town in Semurobi wereda of Zone 5. The problem reported to be very serious particularly in Dallol, Elidar, Dupti and Teru woredas as no water tankering is currently underway. Due to the erratic rains and long dry spell period, hand dug wells and ponds have already dried up in most parts of zone 2 and zone 4. PASTORAL AREAS

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS: 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 34 2004 Karema rains did not have notable impact on the improvement of pasture in most parts of the Region. Except for some browses, pasture for sheep and cattle is very poor particularly in Zone 1, 2 and 4. The rangelands in Chifera wereda of zone 1, which used to host livestock from neighboring woredas such as Mille, Afambo, Assayita and Dupti woredas of zone 1 and zone 4, have become exhausted and overgrazed earlier than normal. Livestock in this wereda have already moved to bor- dering woredas in Amhara Region.

The pasture problem reported to be severe in zone 2 where huge number of livestock migrated to Tigray region (Wajirate, Mehonie and Eidagahamus areas) abnormally early. Aba-ala, Megale and Erebti woredas of zone 2 used to be self-sufficient in pasture and water without migration. These woredas usually host livestock from Kuneba and Berhale woredas of same zone during dry season. But this year, the unusual movement was observed from all woredas of the zone.

Similarly in Zone 4, Golina, Awra and Ewa woredas used to be self-sufficient in pasture and water. These woredas also host livestock from Yallo and Teru woredas of same zone and Zone 1. However, due to scarcity of pasture, livestock from all woredas of the zone have already migrated to Tigray (Alamata, Mehone and Waja woredas) and Amhara (Hara and Kobo areas) Regions. Pasture in zone 5 was also reported to be poor particularly in the lowland areas bordering Awash River.

Except for Gewane, Dulecha and Bure Mudiatu woredas where the rangelands were flooded due to the overflow of Awash River, pasture condition in zone 3 was reported to be relatively better as compared to other areas of the Region.

Livestock physical condition (mainly cattle) is either poor or deteriorating in most parts of the Region. Reproduction and pro- duction of cattle (milk, butter and meat) has significantly decreased from what is expected at normal times. Camels and goats are somehow better than that of cattle due to the availability of some browses. The livestock condition (cattle) in Afambo and Assayita woredas of zone1, most parts of zones 2 and 4 reported to be very weak and even alarming in some areas. Cattle deaths due to combined effect of drought and opportunistic diseases (endemic diseases) have been reported from Awra and Golina weredas of zone 4 and in some parts of zone 2. According to the assessment team's report, the existing livestock sit- uation is threatening and disturbing particularly in zone 2, 4 and parts of zone 1.

No reports of animal disease outbreaks, but endemic diseases like CBPP, CCPP, Pastrolosis, internal and external parasites have become main concern of pastoralists particularly in zones 2 and 4. Absences of skilled manpower, veterinary services and veterinary medicines have been reported from most parts of the Region.

3. AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AND CROP PRODUCTION PROSPECTS The main crop producing areas in the Region are Argoba and the agro-pastoral areas in Dulecha, Awash Fentale, Gewane and Amibara woredas of Zone 3 and irregatedagro-pastoral areas in Afambo, Assayita and Dupti werdas in Zone 1. In Argoba, 95% of the wereda population depends on crop production while the crop share in the agro-pastoral areas of Zone 3 is about 12%.

The main crops grown during the season (rain fed) are maize, sorghum, barley, cotton and teff. However, both long cycle and short cycle crops were not planted on time due to delayed rains for land preparation and planting. In Argoba wereda, the long cycle crops such as maize and sorghum were not planted as planned due to poor 2004 Sugum and late on-set of Karema rains. It was replaced by short cycle crops mainly teff and the production anticipated from this crop is about 70%.

The crop stand was observed to be good in Afambo wereda though the planted area coverage was only about 20% of what is expected at normal times due to decreases in the water level of Awash River. Most of the areas in Asayita were not plant- ed for same reason.

4. HUMAN HEALTH CONDITION There were no reports of human diseases at epidemic level. But the endemic diseases such as malaria in flooded areas; and water born diseases and cases of upper respiratory infections have been reported in some parts of the Region. Shortages of skilled manpower, medicines and health facilities have been reported from many parts of the Region. This situation needs immediate attention.

5. FOOD SECURITY PROSPECT IN 2005 The major sources of income in the Region are livestock and livestock products. The contribution from crop production is very limited. Hiring of pack animals and salt production are some of the additional income sources mainly in Berhale, Afdera and parts of Dallol woredas at normal time. This year due to inadequate 2004 Sugum and poor Karema rains, income from both livestock and crop production are all considerably affected and thus little or no is expected. The terms of trade are unfavor- able for pastoralists. Supply of cereals is very low while the price is increasing; while supply of livestock is very high and the demand and price per head is much lower than normal year. Low crop production by highlanders, poor physical condition of livestock and fear of the long dry season were causes for this market imbalance. For instance, price of maize in October/2004 in Chifra wereda of Zone 1 was 180 birr/quintal, which is very much higher than that that of last year (60 birr/quintal) where as price for medium goat has gone down by almost half (70birr/head) compared to last year (130 birr/head).

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 35 Overall, food security situation in most parts of the Region has become worrisome and even alarming in some areas. There is little or no milk supply in most parts of the Region. The livestock started to migrate abnormally early and in some areas it was reported that they have started dying because of the stress and drought related diseases. According to the assessment team’s findings the situation has already become worrisome and may become alarming (zone 2 and 4) if the expected short rain “ Dede’a “ fails.

Therefore, a total of 457,112 will require emergency food assistance for 6 months as of January in 2005. This estimate was considered only if the safety net program is not going to start as of January 2005.

In addition to this, the human health and the veterinary services need immediate attention. Provision of feeds for young ani- mals may also be required as pastures are poor in most places. Thus closely monitoring the most affected areas (parts of zone1and most areas in zone 2 and 4) is very essential. Immediate attention should also be given to areas having sever water shortages.

Table 8: Emergency Beneficiaries and food requirement for Afar Region.

Zone Emergency Food Requirement in MT Beneficiaries Cereal Sup.Food Oil Pulses Total Zone 1 71,712 11700 1228.5 351.0 1170 14449.5

Zone 2 60,227 10881.81 1142.59005 326.4543 1088.181 13439.0 Zone 3 25,487 5336.55 560.33775 160.0965 533.655 6590.6

Zone 4 45,635 7434 780.57 223.02 743.4 9181.0

Zone 5 3,964 5787.72 607.7106 173.6316 578.772 7147.8

Total 207,025 41,140.1 4,319.7 1,234.2 4,114.0 50808.0

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 36 PART TWO: SITUATION IN THE PASTORAL AREAS II: SOMALI REGION

Basic facts

Rural population Number of zones ...... 9 Needy population Number of Woredas ...... 52 16.69 % Meher as percent of annual crop production ...... 30% Projected rural population for mid 2005 ...... 3,342,477 Needy population due to Acute problem for 2005 ...... 557,861 Needy population as percent of rural population ...... 16.69 % Food aid requirement in MT for emergency assistance ...... 137,915.6

1. WEATHER CONDITION The onset of the deyr rains in Somali Region was either late by about 3 weeks in some areas or on time in others. Most of the heavier rains arrived in late October and November 2004. In a number of woredas, the rains started on time. The rains were 3-weeks late in Gode and most of Afder zone, and very late in most of Gashamo, Galadi and Bokh woredas - arriving only in late November 2004. Most zones had close to normal rains with the exception of a few woredas like Danan, Gashamo, Sheygosh, East Imey, West Imey and Sagag and Duhun. The rains largely improved water and pasture avail- ability. The 2004 deyr rains performed better than the previ- ous gu rains but were inadequate for successful crop production, mainly because they were late and insuf- ficient in quantity in rain fed areas, while there were little or no floods for flood recession farming. In parts of Dolo ado and Hamaro woredas torrential deyr rains reportedly drowned many shoats and swept away dwellings.

2. PASTURE, WATER AND LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS The main water sources in the Region are shallow wells dug in dry riverbeds and streams, birkads, ponds and hand dug wells. The Shabelle, Web, Ganale and Dawa rivers are also major water Summary sources. Although there are many areas that are chronically water insecure in each zone, the deyr rains have generally improved water availability. However, in the Close to normal deyr coming hot and dry jilaal season a quick depletion of the available water is expect- rains with some excep- tions. ed, particularly in areas that usually face water shortages during the dry seasons. Deaths of livestock reported in some areas. In general pasture availability is near normal or normal in most zones of the Region. Water aviailability is still In light of the poor performance of last gu rains and current deyr rains, pasture avail- poor in chronic water ability has been generally poor in the following woredas: Gashamo and Aware in problem areas. Except for some, pasture Dagahbur zone, Duhun, Sagag and Garbo in Fik zone, Bokh and Galadi in Warder availabity is near normal to zone, Dambal in Shinile zone, southeastern parts of Harshin in Jijiga zone, E.Imey normal. and Danan Gode zone, Hudet in Liban zone and Sheygosh in Korahe zones.

Except in some woredas like Duhun, Segeg and Garbo of Fik zone, Gashamo and parts of Aware woreda, where livestock body condition remained poor as a result of insufficient feed, livestock body condition in other areas has been improving and nearly normal. No livestock disease outbreaks are reported, except for reports PASTORAL AREAS

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS: 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 37 of increasing cases of tick borne diseases and CBPP. Milk production was below normal in all zones due to the loss of milk- ing animals in some districts, poor delivery of animals (because of low conception rates during the previous poor rainy sea- sons), and the hitherto poor pasture and water situations. In Jijiga and Shinile, milk production has been described as near normal.

3. CROP PERFORMANCE AND PRODUCTION Crop production prospects in Somali Region are very poor, making this deyr season one of the worst in recent years. Riverine farmers along the Shabelle, Ganale, Web, Dawa rivers and the seasonal Fafan river, who largely depend on flood irrigation did not get any significant floods and therefore expect little or no crop harvests. Similarly rain-fed agro- pastoralists across the Region (found in parts of every zone except Warder) are facing total crop failure because of the deyr rain rains that were poorly distributed. In Jijiga zone, late gu and karan rains meant that both long and short cycle crops did not establish well and therefore harvests are expected to be much below normal (by 70% and 80% in sorghum and maize respectively). Since about 80% of the population in Jijiga zone relies heavily on crop production for their food and income, this has serious food security implications. However, farmers in West Gode Irrigation Project, who have planted up to 1000ha, expect some har- vest in April 2005. The few, small privately owned irrigation farms in Kalafo, Mustahil and Dolo Ado woredas are largely devot- ed to production of horticultural and oil crops like onion and sesame, which contribute little to the overall food production of Region. Therefore, farmers across the Region are expected to face an acute food shortage and will require continued food assistance for coming six months.

4. HUMAN HEALTH CONDITIONS According to health officials and woreda administrations wide spread incidences of malaria and diarrhoea were observed in 10 kebeles of Dolo-ado and all woredas of Shinile zone. Also increasing cases of respiratory diseases and diarrhea report- edly caused the deaths of children and adults in parts of Duhun, Garbo and Segeg woredas of Fik zone. In general, because of very poor medical facilities and services increasing prevalence of common diseases like malaria, whooping cough and diar- rhoea are reported currently. Cases of malnutrition were reported in Dolo Ado, Dolo Bay, Charati and W.Imey woredas, while children and pregnant and lactating mothers looked weak in Bokh, Degehabur and Moyale woredas and among the Danot and Aware IDPs.

5. FOOD SECURITY PROSPECTS FROM JANUARY TO JUNE 2005 Livestock prices are generally lower than normal in all zones except in Jijiga and Shinile, where prices are good. The low prices are associated with poor livestock body condition, low demand from Somalia and Kenya and strong controls on illegal cross-border trade. In Shinile and Jijiga there was better demand for livestock mainly from internal meat processors and exter- nal buyers, and prices and terms of trade for livestock owners were favorable. Cereal prices were higher than normal through- out the Region in the last 2-4 months due to low supply resulting partly from the failure of the gu season and also short sup- ply of grain from neighboring regions (Oromiya). Highest prices were seen in Duhun woreda of Fik zone in October 2004, where cereals were extremely scarce.

Although the current deyr rains have helped improve water and pasture availability and will improve livestock body condition, and possibly market value, the general food security situation remains below normal to poor. This is due to the cumulative stress resulting from the poor performance of the previous gu and deyr rains, which resulted in low livestock conception and delivery rates, poor production, a higher susceptibility to endemic diseases, and even livestock mortality (particularly, young stock, milking and pack animals). The current deyr rains, like the previous two rainy seasons is also insufficient for crop pro- duction and therefore there is a serious shortage of local staple cereals. In addition, both livestock and cereal prices are unfa- vorable in almost all zones and the situation is only expected to worsen in the coming jilaal season. As a result, an estimat- ed 1,240,806 (including safety net beneficiaries) persons are identified as needing relief food in the next six months (January- June 2005). If the productivity safety net programme starts as planned, the number of beneficiaries is expected to decline. The needs are summarized in the table below

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 38 Table 9: Emergency Beneficiaries and food requirement for Somali Region.

Zone Emergency Food Requirement in MT Beneficiaries Cereal Sup.Food Oil Pulses Total Afder 61,921 13,071.7 1,372.5 392.2 1,307.2 16,143.6

Degehabour 39,116 7,641.5 802.4 229.2 764.1 9,437.2

Fik 83,238 16,291.4 1,710.6 488.7 1,629.1 20,119.8

Gode 74,136 14,512.3 1,523.8 435.4 1,451.2 17,922.7

Jijiga 80,373 15,681.1 1,646.5 470.4 1,568.1 19,366.1

Korahe 45,889 8,983.6 943.3 269.5 898.4 11,094.8

Liben 34,278 8,400.8 882.1 252.0 840.1 10,375.0

Shinile 89,668 17,453.5 1,832.6 523.6 1,745.3 21,555.0

Wareder 49,241 9,636.7 1,011.9 289.1 963.7 11,901.3

Total 557,861.0 111,672.5 11,725.6 3,350.2 11,167.3 137,915.6

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 39 PART TWO: SITUATION IN THE PASTORAL AREAS III: BORENA, GUJI AND BALE LOWLANDS (OROMIYA)

Basic Facts 0.87% Rural population Number of zones ...... 3 Needy population Number of woredas…………………...... ………………..……...... 24 Meher as percent of annual crop production………...... ……………...... 100% Projected rural population in 2005……………………...... ……...... …... 2,323,741 Needy population due to Acute problem for 2005 …...... ………………20,263 Needy population as percent of the rural population………...... …...... 0.87% Food aid requirement in MT for emergency assistance ...... 2,252.2

A. BORENA AND GUJI 1. WEATHER CONDITION This year's hagaya rains started on time (mid-September) in most parts of the two zones but had a late onset in parts of Dire, Arero, Teltele in Borena zone and Liben in Guji zone. The rains start- ed erratically and stopped temporarily for two weeks. They restarted in mid-October, after when most parts of the two zones received good rains. Even in late November, the rains in Borena zone continued to fall. However, the hagaya rains were poor in Teltele and in some parts of Arero woredas of Borena zone and inadequate in Liben woreda of Guji zone. In these three woredas, a significant number of PAs and ketenas remained largely dry even by the end of November 2004.

The 2004 gena rains were poor particularly in Dire, Moyale, Arero and Teltele woredas of Borena zone and in the lowlands of Adola, Wadera, Odo-shakisso and Liben woredas in Guji zone. Summary Adola woreda however, received some good unseasonable rains after the gena

season in July and August 2004. The 2004 meher rains were generally good in Rain started on time in Bore, Uraga and Kercha woredas. most parts. Availabilty of water and 2. WATER, PASTURE AND LIVESTOCK CONDITION pasture is good in most The hagaya rains have in general improved the availability of water in most parts of parts. the Zones. The available water in these areas is expected to last the pastoralists until the coming gena sea- son. However, there is concern about water in some PAs in Teltele and Arero woredas in Borena Zone and Liben woreda in Guji Zone, as a number of ponds are either empty or half-full because of insufficient rainfall and a lack of maintenance. A number of pocket areas in Teltele and Liban woredas have been identified, which are likely to face water shortages in the coming dry season (December-March 2005).

Pasture has been very scarce during the gena season, but since the (delayed) hagaya rains were received, pasture is regenerating in most parts of the lowland woredas. Availability of browse is generally good while annual grasses are only just beginning to grow. Perennial grasses, which are important for cattle grazing, PASTORALIST AREAS

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS: 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 40 however, remain very scarce in most parts of Teltele and parts of Arero and Dire woredas (Borena Zone) and in Liben wore- da (Guji zone). The hagaya rains do not usually make any significant contribution to the regeneration of perennial grasses. So although this hagaya rain appears to be relatively normal, the prospects for the availability of useful grazing in the com- ing long dry season is poor. In addition, the cattle population has reportedly been increasing and this will put additional pres- sure on the water and pasture resources. A large number of livestock in Teltele woreda have reportedly already been moved to potential dry season grazing areas (areas bordering Bena-Tsemay woreda of South Omo zone of SNNPR). This movement is abnormally early and will cause a faster-than-normal depletion of pastures.

Livestock are now recovering from the extended (post-gena) dry period and their physical condition is improving in most parts of the zones. However livestock still remain weaker than average in most parts of Teltele and some areas in Arero and Dire woredas of Borena Zone and Liben woreda of Guji zone. During the last dry season, in Teltele, Dire, Arero and Moyale woredas some cattle and goats reportedly died from drought and drought related diseases. Livestock losses were particular- ly significant in the Arero woreda. The availability of milk and butter is poor as compared to normal. There were no reports of animal disease outbreaks, although endemic diseases like CCPP in goats and blackleg in cattle have been reported. Provision of vaccination and treatment are underway in most lowland woredas of the two zones.

3. AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AND CROP PRODUCTION 70-80% of the annual grain supply in most parts of Borena and Guji zones is obtained from gena season production. Crop production in 2004 gena season was poor and there was almost total failure of crops in Dire and Moyale woredas, and about 80% crop loss on maize reported in the Agropastoral/farming areas of Teltele woreda. Although the area planted during the gena season in Dire woreda was more than double (28,925 hectares) compared to the last year acreage, the harvest was negligible at only 7% of last year. The contribution of the hagaya crop to the annual food supply is usually small. This year due to the erratic nature of this rain at the start of the season, both planted area and expected harvests are much below nor- mal, because farmers were discouraged by the erratic start of the rains, particularly in Borena lowlands.

On the other hand, the planted area was reported to be higher in the mid-land areas of Guji Zone as compared to last year due to the unseasonable rains that were received in July and August and the timely arrival of hagaya rains. Crops in visited woreda had a good stand and good production is anticipated. In Liben woreda, however, only 50% of the planned area has been planted.

4. HUMAN HEALTH There have been no reports of human diseases at epidemic level. But bloody diarrhoea was noted to be unusually wide spread in some localities of Liben woreda. Cases of malnutrition were also reported in some PAs of Teltele and Dire woredas. A nutrition survey carried out by SC-USA also indicated prevalence of mild malnutrition in some areas of the woreda.

5. FOOD SECURITY PROSPECTS Due to low supply, following the failure of the gena crop, cereal prices have been rising since August 2004 (by 50-60% in some markets). Shoat prices are normal and have remained unchanged during this period (in Borena), but rising slightly in Guji zone. However cattle and camel prices have been lower than normal due to poor demand. Therefore terms of trade have been unfavorable for livestock owners in the last part of the year.

Although with the arrival of the hagaya rains there have been improvements in the availability of water and pasture, the food security situation is still below normal across the lowlands of the two zones. This is mainly due to the negative effects result- ing from the failure of the important gena rains earlier in the year, which has meant that (a) important grazing for cattle, is unlikely to regenerate even after the hagaya rains (b) livestock were weak (some died), their production is still poor and they need a prolonged recovery period, (c) cereal production and supply was low and prices were high, and (d) the terms of trade are unfavorable, implying that more animals than usual have to be sold to meet food needs.

As a result, the lowland populations of Guji and Borena zones will require immediate food assistance as of January 2005 for six months is 12,893.

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 41 B. BALE LOWLANDS 1. WEATHER CONDITIONS Normally the onset of meher rains in highlands, midlands and lowlands of Bale zone is mid-June, July and early September, respectively. In all agro ecologies the rains withdraw at end of November. This year except in the lowland areas of the zone there was normal onset, even distribution and good amount of rains in the Zone until mid-November. In the lowland areas of the zone, the rains were delayed by 2 - 4weeks and were poor in quality, inadequate in amount and uneven in distribution. This situation adversely affected the performance of meher crops (wheat, barley, maize, sorghum, pulses and teff) significant- ly in most lowlands of Bale zone.

2. PLANTED AREA AND TIMELINESS OF PLANTING In highlands and midlands of the zone planting was undertaken on time. However, due to delayed onset of the rains, plant- ing of meher crops was similarly delayed in the lowland areas of the zone. The crops were also encountered with very errat- ic and extended dry spells and suffered from serious and critical shortage of moisture. Planted area of meher crops has declined in Mada Walabu woreda due to moisture stress, while in Sewena woreda it has increased by 900 hectares. Based on the zone report the total area planted is 204,471 hectares and this is 4.8% increment compared to last year.

3. CROP PRODUCTION PROSPECT The overall production prospect is very promising. Good harvests were obtained from highland woredas of Dodola, Adaba, Nansebo, Kokosa, Sinana and Goba and midland areas of Gasera, Goro, Ginir and Gololcha of the zone. However, in the lowland woredas such as Rayitu, Sawena, Laga Hidha, Mada Walabu, Gura Dhamole, Goro, Ginir and Berbere woredas due to delayed rains coupled with prolonged dry spells crop production prospect is anticipated to be poor, mainly due to failure of maize, wheat, teff and haricot bean.

In the highlands and wet-midlands of the zone meher crops are at flowering and seed setting stage (normal compared with the usual times) and badly need moisture at this critical growth stage. However, in the lowlands and dry midlands meher cops are predominantly at their early vegetative stage and in some pocket areas crops are at flowering stage. These crops are now facing critical moisture stress due to early cessation of meher rains.

4. WATER, PASTURE AND LIVESTOCK CONDITION There was no variation in availability and access to pasture compared to normal. Though erratic and inadequate, the meher rains have helped for good re-growth of bushes and trees in the lowlands of the zone and hence there is good feed, espe- cially for browsing animals (goats and camels). Though no significant scarcity of water was reported, water resources (ponds, ellas and springs) are not well recharged to the required level. In Sewena woreda farmers have started resorting to ellas ear- lier than the usual time and the community reflected their fear of facing scarcity of water from February to March unless the current meher rains are continued until end November.

Except in Rayitu woreda where loss in body weight was reported due to poor pasture following the poor belg rains, the phys- ical condition of the animals is noted to be good in other areas of the zone. No unusual livestock diseases, mortality and out migration or influx of animals is reported in the zone.

5. HEALTH SITUATION There was no outbreak of human diseases, increased mortality and sign of malnutrition reported in the zone. Rather short- age of health staff was reported and if in case an outbreak of human diseases occurred in the upcoming months woredas like Sewena and Mada Walabu will be of high concern.

6. FOOD SECURITY PROSPECTS IN 2005 The prices of major cereal food crops (wheat, barley, teff and maize) have slightly increased in all the lowland parts of the zone compared to the usual prices at this time of the year. This is attributed to decreased supply of grains due to poor har- vest from last belg season. The prices of livestock, especially shoats and camels have increased compared to the usual prices at this time of the year. This is mainly due to increased demand by meat factories both for export and local consumption. The overall food security prospect of the zone for the year 2005 is expected to be good. In the highlands the performance of crops is observed to be promising. On the other hand, because of poor performance of meher rains in the lowlands and dry midlands, poor harvest is expected in these areas. The delayed onset, erratic nature, uneven distribution and inadequate amount of rains of the season have threatened performance of meher crops in the lowland areas of the zone. The commu- nities have repeatedly reported that such an extremely erratic and unfavorable climactic condition has never been seen ever. Thus, very poor harvest is expected in the lowland areas of the zone.

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 42 Therefore, in Bale zone 7,370 people will require immediate relief food assistance in the year 2005.

Table 10: Emergency Beneficiaries and food requirement for Bale lowlands, Borena and Guji Zones (Ormoiya)

Zone Emergency Emergency Food Requirement in MT Beneficiaries Cereals Sup.Food Oil Pulses Total

Bale 7,370 663.3 69.6 72.3 66.3 819.2 Borena 3,421 307.9 32.3 69.5 30.8 380.2 Guji 9,472 852.5 89.5 31.5 85.2 1,052.8 Total 20,263 1,824 191 149.9 182 2,252.2

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 43 PART TWO: SITUATION IN THE PASTORAL AREAS V. SOUTH OMO ZONE (SNNPR)

Basic Facts

Rural population Number of woredas…...... …………………………..……...... 6 Needy population Meher as percent of annual crop production………...... ……………...... 60% 23.11 % Projected rural population in 2005…………………………...... 411,495 Needy population due to Acute problem for 2005 ……...... ……………95,114 Needy population as a % of the rural population………...... …...... …..23.11% Food requirement in MT for acute emergency assistance ...... …..12,333.9

1. WEATHER CONDITION The main rains in March-May were very poor and this adversely affected both pastoral and agro-pastoral liveli- hood within the zone. In pastoral areas, the short rains were late by more than one month, while the June- October (main) seasonal rains in the Agropastoral areas were not received. The only significant rains received in the zone were the late short rains which started in October (late for pastoralists and unseasonable for agropastoralists). The late/unseasonable rains are expected to bring about some relief.

2. PASTURE, WATER AND LIVESTOCK CONDITION The poor performance of the rains during both seasons (March-May and June-October) resulted in a very severe shortage of pasture and water. Currently except in some wet agro-pastoral parts and parts of the pas- toral areas which received the late rains, there is still a serious shortage of pasture for livestock and livestock remain weak, as recovery requires sufficient rainfall and significant improvement in pasture and water. Livestock production is still much below, and the rains have not been sufficient enough to attract animals back from the areas they migrated to (Mago Park and around Lake Turkana)

3. AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AND CROP PRODUCTION PROSPECT No significant crop production is expected this year due to lack of rains and low level of Weito, Omo and Kibish Rivers that prohibited farmers from practicing recessional agriculture on the bank of the rivers. Only a small piece of land has been cultivated and planted around Omo River using irrigation. For instance, in Kuraz Wereda alone 4,000-5,000 Ha of land used to be cultivated when Omo River overflows. Since the last 2-3 years a maximum of 10% of this land has been planted due to low level of the river.

4. HUMAN HEALTH AND NUTRITION Except for endemic diseases like malaria and some health complications resulting from the consumption of toxic wild fruits, there are no reported outbreaks of dis- Summary eases throughout the zone. However, signs of malnutrition among mothers and old people have been observed, but no surveys have been carried out to confirm this. Short rains delayed by one month. 5. FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND PROSPECT IN 2005 Pasture and water avail- The price for grains is very high while the demand for, and prices of livestock are ability reached at critical. Livestock physical condi- very low. Terms of trade are therefore very unfavorable for the pastoralists and agro tion poor. pastoralists. Crops have largely failed. Given the poor performance of the rains during the year, livestock have been and continue to be in poor condition (with stress migrations reported), and their produc- tion is very low, while crops have almost entirely failed. Market supply and prices are also highly unfavorable for all groups. The food security situation is therefore poor and prospects for 2005 is equally bleak. The worst affected areas are: four PAs in Bume, eight PAs in East Geleb area, 12 PAs in Hamer and 6 PAs in Bena Tsemay woredas. The situation in Hamer wereda is reported to be alarming and thus needs immediate atten- tion. PASTORAL AREAS

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS: 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 44 During the 2004 belg assessment in July, some 85,000 people were identified as needing urgent food assistance for the peri- od August-December 2004, while another 50,000 were to be closely monitored. The beneficiary figure was high because of the cumulative effect of consecutive rain failures including the main March-May 2004 rains. As the situation has not improved from the previous emergency status, 95,114 people in South Omo are identified as requiring emergency food assistance for seven months in year 2005.

E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 45 Interpolated Commulative Rainfall for the Period June to September 2004 Map 3:

E ARLY W ARNINGS YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 46 June - September 2004 rainfall difference from normal June - September 2004 rainfall difference Map 4:

E ARLY W ARNINGS YSTEMS : 2005 FOOD S UPPLY P ROSPECT 47 Emergency Beneficiaries and Food Requirement by Region, Zone and Woreda Emergency Food Requirement Region Zone Woreda Beneficiaries Cereal Sup_Food Oil Pulses Total Afar Zone 1 Afambo 3,023 540.0 56.7 16.2 54.0 666.9 Afar Zone 1 Asayita 2,321 1,350.0 141.8 40.5 135.0 1,667.3 Afar Zone 1 Chifra 20,120 2,700.0 283.5 81.0 270.0 3,334.5 Afar Zone 1 Dubti 16,307 2,520.0 264.6 75.6 252.0 3,112.2 Afar Zone 1 Elidar 13,496 2,250.0 236.3 67.5 225.0 2,778.8 Afar Zone 1 Mile 16,445 2,340.0 245.7 70.2 234.0 2,889.9 Zone 1 Total 71,712 11,700.0 1,228.5 351.0 1,170.0 14,449.5 Afar Zone 2 Abala 13,050 1,737.0 182.4 52.1 173.7 2,145.2 Afar Zone 2 Afder 3,728 720.0 75.6 21.6 72.0 889.2 Afar Zone 2 Berehele 14,924 2,160.0 226.8 64.8 216.0 2,667.6 Afar Zone 2 Dalul 18,940 2,763.0 290.1 82.9 276.3 3,412.3 Afar Zone 2 Erbeti 0 1,566.8 164.5 47.0 156.7 1,935.0 Afar Zone 2 Koneba 6,315 1,197.0 125.7 35.9 119.7 1,478.3 Afar Zone 2 Megale 3,270 738.0 77.5 22.1 73.8 911.4 Zone 2 Total 60,227 10,881.8 1,142.6 326.5 1,088.2 13,439.0 Afar Zone 3 Amibara 3,456 1,026.0 107.7 30.8 102.6 1,267.1 Afar Zone 3 Argoba 0 377.6 39.6 11.3 37.8 466.3 Afar Zone 3 Awash Fenta 2,351 432.0 45.4 13.0 43.2 533.5 Afar Zone 3 Bure Muday 4,760 1,323.0 138.9 39.7 132.3 1,633.9 Afar Zone 3 Dulecha 2,260 567.0 59.5 17.0 56.7 700.2 Afar Zone 3 Gewane 12,660 1,611.0 169.2 48.3 161.1 1,989.6 Zone 3 Total 25,487 5,336.6 560.3 160.1 533.7 6,590.6 Afar Zone 4 Aura 2,301 990.0 104.0 29.7 99.0 1,222.7 Afar Zone 4 Ewa 11,150 1,620.0 170.1 48.6 162.0 2,000.7 Afar Zone 4 Gulina 7,594 1,080.0 113.4 32.4 108.0 1,333.8 Afar Zone 4 Teru 15,790 2,394.0 251.4 71.8 239.4 2,956.6 Afar Zone 4 Yalo 8,800 1,350.0 141.8 40.5 135.0 1,667.3 Zone 4 Total 45,635 7,434.0 780.6 223.0 743.4 9,181.0 Afar Zone 5 Artuma 566 1,080.0 113.4 32.4 108.0 1,333.8 Afar Zone 5 Dewe 0 878.2 92.2 26.3 87.8 1,084.6 Afar Zone 5 Fursi 0 1,274.7 133.8 38.2 127.5 1,574.2 Afar Zone 5 Semurobi ge 3,398 1,170.0 122.9 35.1 117.0 1,445.0 Afar Zone 5 Telalak 0 1,384.8 145.4 41.5 138.5 1,710.3 Zone 5 Total 3,964 5,787.7 607.7 173.6 578.8 7,147.8 Afar Total 207,025 41,140.1 4,319.7 1,234.2 4,114.0 50,808.0 Amhara E. Gojam Enbese sar 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara E. Gojam Gochasiso E 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara E. Gojam Shebel Bere 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara E. Gojam Dejen 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara E. Gojam Awabel 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara E. Gojam Machakel 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara E. Gojam Deber Elias 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara E. Gojam Gozamin 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara E. Gojam Basoliben 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara E. Gojam Debay Tilatg 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara E. Gojam Enemay 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara E. Gojam Enarje 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 E. Gojam Total 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS: 2005 FOOD SUPPLY PROSPECT 48 Emergency Food Requirement Region Zone Woreda Beneficiaries Cereal Sup_Food Oil Pulses Total Amhara N.Gonder Adiarkay 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara N.Gonder Mirab Beless 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara N.Gonder Misrak Beles 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara N.Gonder Beyeda 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara N.Gonder Dabat 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara N.Gonder Debark 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara N.Gonder Janamora 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara N.Gonder Wogera 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara N.Gonder G/Zuria 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N.Gonder Total 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara N.Shewa Gera keya 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara N.Shewa Asagirt 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara N.Shewa Angolela Te 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara N.Shewa Gishe Rabel 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara N.Shewa Lalo Mama 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N.Shewa Total 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara N.Wello Bugna 8,200 738.0 77.5 164.4 73.8 911.4 Amhara N.Wello Delanta Daw 13,000 1,170.0 122.9 151.7 117.0 1,445.0 Amhara N.Wello Gidan 7,600 684.0 71.8 141.7 68.4 844.7 Amhara N.Wello Habru 11,900 1,606.5 168.7 105.0 160.7 1,984.0 Amhara N.Wello Goba Lafto 5,000 675.0 70.9 94.6 67.5 833.6 Amhara N.Wello Kobo 22,000 2,970.0 311.9 173.7 297.0 3,668.0 Amhara N.Wello Meket 8,300 747.0 78.4 126.7 74.7 922.5 Amhara N.Wello Wadla 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N.Wello Total 76,000 8,590.5 902.0 957.9 859.1 10,609.3 Amhara Oromia Jille Timuga 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara Oromia Artuma Furs 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara Oromia Bati 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara Oromia Dawa Chefa 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromia Total 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara S.Gonder Ebinat 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara S.Gonder Lay Gayint 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara S.Gonder Libo Kemeke 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara S.Gonder Simada 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara S.Gonder Tach Gaynt 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara S.Gonder Este 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara S.Gonder Farta 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara S.Gonder Fogera 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara S.Gonder Dera 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 S.Gonder Total 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara S.Wello Kalu 4,150 373.5 39.2 137.7 37.4 461.3 Amhara S.Wello Ambasel 2,000 180.0 18.9 104.2 18.0 222.3 Amhara S.Wello Debre Sina 0 0.0 0.0 81.1 0.0 0.0 Amhara S.Wello Dessie Zuria 4,000 360.0 37.8 116.9 36.0 444.6 Amhara S.Wello Jama 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara S.Wello Kelala 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara S.Wello Kutaber 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara S.Wello Legambo 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara S.Wello Albuko 1,000 90.0 9.5 0.0 9.0 111.2

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS: 2005 FOOD SUPPLY PROSPECT 49 Emergency Food Requirement Region Zone Woreda Beneficiaries Cereal Sup_Food Oil Pulses Total Amhara S.Wello Mekdela 8,000 720.0 75.6 149.1 72.0 889.2 Amhara S.Wello Sayint 11,800 1,416.0 148.7 177.2 141.6 1,748.8 Amhara S.Wello Tehuledere 0 0.0 0.0 44.2 0.0 0.0 Amhara S.Wello Tenta 3,660 329.4 34.6 140.6 32.9 406.8 Amhara S.Wello Wegdi 0 0.0 0.0 55.1 0.0 0.0 Amhara S.Wello Were llu 0 0.0 0.0 76.1 0.0 0.0 Amhara S.Wello Werebabo 4,000 540.0 56.7 82.3 54.0 666.9 S.Wello Total 38,610 4,008.9 420.9 1,164.5 400.9 4,951.0 Amhara W.Hemera Dehana 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara W.Hemera Zequala 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara W.Hemera Sekota 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 W.Hemera Total 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amhara Total 114,610.0 12,599.4 1,322.9 2,122.4 1,259.9 15,560.3 Diredawa Dire Dawa Gurgura 38,454 4,037.7 424.0 234.2 403.8 4,986.5 Dire Dawa Total 38,454 4,037.7 424.0 234.2 403.8 4,986.5 Diredawa Total 38,454 4,037.7 424.0 234.2 403.8 4,986.5 Harari Harari Hundene 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Harari Total 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Harari Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Arsi Aseko 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Arsi Dodota Sire 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Arsi Seru 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Arsi Merti 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Arsi Amengna 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Arsi Zway Duged 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Arsi Gololcha 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Arsi Munessa 6,542 1,079.4 113.3 17.7 107.9 1,333.1 Oromiya Arsi Cholle 1,628 170.9 17.9 4.4 17.1 211.1 Oromiya Arsi Lode Hitosa 888 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Arsi Hitosa 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Arsi Digiluna Tiyo 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Arsi Jeju 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Arsi Total 9,058 1,250.4 131.3 22.1 125.0 1,544.2 Oromiya Bale Gaserana G 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Bale Gaserana 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Bale Gololcha 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Bale Ginir 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Bale Goro 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Bale Gura Damol 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Bale Meda Wolab 2,220 199.8 21.0 49.1 20.0 246.8 Oromiya Bale Berbere 3,374 303.7 31.9 18.4 30.4 375.0 Oromiya Bale Lega Hedha 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Bale Mena Anget 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Bale Rayitu 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Bale Sewena 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Bale Agarfa 1,776 159.8 16.8 4.8 16.0 197.4 Bale Total 7,370 663.3 69.6 72.3 66.3 819.2 Oromiya Borena Arero 693 62.4 6.5 31.7 6.2 77.0 Oromiya Borena Dire 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS: 2005 FOOD SUPPLY PROSPECT 50 Emergency Food Requirement Region Zone Woreda Beneficiaries Cereal Sup_Food Oil Pulses Total Oromiya Borena Gelana 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Borena Abaya 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Borena Moyale 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Borena Teltele 2,728 245.5 25.8 37.8 24.6 303.2 Oromiya Borena Yabelo 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Borena H/Mariam 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Borena Total 3,421 307.9 32.3 69.5 30.8 380.2 Oromiya Guji liben 9,472 852.5 89.5 31.5 85.2 1,052.8 Oromiya Guji Wadera 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Guji Odo Shakiso 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Guji Total 9,472 852.5 89.5 31.5 85.2 1,052.8 Oromiya E.Harerge Babile 28,055 2,945.8 309.3 148.9 294.6 3,638.0 Oromiya E.Harerge Deder 3,101 279.1 29.3 58.5 27.9 344.7 Oromiya E.Harerge Fedis 11,347 1,191.4 125.1 199.3 119.1 1,471.4 Oromiya E.Harerge Girawa 2,717 285.3 30.0 112.2 28.5 352.3 Oromiya E.Harerge Goro Gutu 22,752 2,389.0 250.8 124.2 238.9 2,950.4 Oromiya E.Harerge Gulo Odana 0 0.0 0.0 82.2 0.0 0.0 Oromiya E.Harerge Gulo Odana 16,850 1,769.3 185.8 45.5 176.9 2,185.0 Oromiya E.Harerge Meyu Muluk 25,730 2,701.7 283.7 69.5 270.2 3,336.5 Oromiya E.Harerge Gursum 29,048 3,050.0 320.3 184.3 305.0 3,766.8 Oromiya E.Harerge Kersa 39,055 4,100.8 430.6 114.9 410.1 5,064.5 Oromiya E.Harerge Jarso 3,189 287.0 30.1 58.8 28.7 354.5 Oromiya E.Harerge Kurfa Chole 9,732 1,021.9 107.3 79.9 102.2 1,262.0 Oromiya E.Harerge Melka Bello 2,574 231.7 24.3 60.6 23.2 286.1 Oromiya E.Harerge Meta 28,342 2,975.9 312.5 76.5 297.6 3,675.2 Oromiya E.Harerge Bedeno 29,970 3,146.9 330.4 80.9 314.7 3,886.4 Oromiya E.Harerge Haromaya 25,160 2,641.8 277.4 67.9 264.2 3,262.6 Oromiya E.Harerge Combolcha 14,430 1,515.2 159.1 39.0 151.5 1,871.2 E.Harerge Total 292,052 30,532.5 3,205.9 1,603.0 3,053.3 37,707.6 Oromiya E.Shewa Fantale 11,618 1,219.9 128.1 65.9 122.0 1,506.6 Oromiya E.Shewa Seraro 4,440 466.2 49.0 38.4 46.6 575.8 Oromiya E.Shewa Adami Tulu 3,650 383.3 40.2 87.2 38.3 473.3 Oromiya E.Shewa Boset 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya E.Shewa Adama 6,205 651.5 68.4 16.8 65.2 804.6 Oromiya E.Shewa Arsi Negele 9,125 958.1 100.6 24.6 95.8 1,183.3 Oromiya E.Shewa Shashemen 7,884 827.8 86.9 21.3 82.8 1,022.4 E.Shewa Total 42,922 4,506.8 473.2 254.2 450.7 5,565.9 Oromiya N.Shewa Abchuna Ge 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya N.Shewa Kimbibit 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya N.Shewa Kuyu 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya N.Shewa Wuchale Jid 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N.Shewa Total 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya W.Haraghe Guba Korich 13,704 1,644.5 172.7 134.8 164.4 2,030.9 Oromiya W.Haraghe Boke 15,204 1,824.5 191.6 113.9 182.4 2,253.2 Oromiya W.Haraghe Chiro 37,779 4,533.5 476.0 234.2 453.3 5,598.8 Oromiya W.Haraghe Darolebu 11,898 1,427.8 149.9 115.0 142.8 1,763.3 Oromiya W.Haraghe Anchar 3,411 409.3 43.0 110.0 40.9 505.5 Oromiya W.Haraghe Doba 3,702 444.2 46.6 67.9 44.4 548.6 Oromiya W.Haraghe Kuni 2,761 289.9 30.4 51.2 29.0 358.0

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS: 2005 FOOD SUPPLY PROSPECT 51 Emergency Food Requirement Region Zone Woreda Beneficiaries Cereal Sup_Food Oil Pulses Total Oromiya W.Haraghe Mieso 27,978 3,357.4 352.5 214.3 335.7 4,146.3 Oromiya W.Haraghe Habro 7,592 911.0 95.7 20.5 91.1 1,125.1 Oromiya W.Haraghe Tulo 5,840 700.8 73.6 15.8 70.1 865.5 Oromiya W.Haraghe Messela 5,840 700.8 73.6 15.8 70.1 865.5 W.Haraghe Total 135,709 16,243.7 1,705.6 1,093.2 1,624.4 20,060.9 Oromiya W. Shewa Dendi 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya W. Shewa Bako Tibe 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 W. Shewa Total 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oromiya Total 500,004.0 54,357.0 5,707.5 3,145.9 5,435.7 67,130.91 SNNPR Alaba Alaba 1,470 154.4 16.2 65.2 15.4 190.7 Alaba Total 1,470 154.4 16.2 65.2 15.4 190.7 SNNPR Amaro Amaro 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amaro Total 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR Derashe Derashe 2,646 119.1 12.5 40.5 11.9 147.1 Derashe Total 2,646 119.1 12.5 40.5 11.9 147.1 SNNPR G. Gofa Arbaminch Z 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR G. Gofa Bonke 2,520 226.8 23.8 27.1 22.7 280.1 SNNPR G. Gofa Boreda Abay 2,205 198.5 20.8 36.9 19.8 245.1 SNNPR G. Gofa Gofa Zuria 10,962 986.6 103.6 78.5 98.7 1,218.4 SNNPR G. Gofa Chincha 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR G. Gofa Dita Darama 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR G. Gofa Dita Darama 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR G. Gofa Daramalo 3,465 311.9 32.7 25.8 31.2 385.1 SNNPR G. Gofa Kemba 16,506 1,485.5 156.0 82.6 148.6 1,834.6 SNNPR G. Gofa Kucha 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR G. Gofa Mirab Abaya 8,820 793.8 83.3 53.4 79.4 980.3 SNNPR G. Gofa Zala Ubama 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR G. Gofa Zala Ubama 23,688 2,131.9 223.9 64.0 213.2 2,632.9 SNNPR G. Gofa Ubadebretse 4,158 374.2 39.3 34.0 37.4 462.2 G. Gofa Total 72,324 6,509.2 683.5 402.2 650.9 8,038.8 SNNPR Gedio Kochere 3,150 330.8 34.7 22.4 33.1 408.5 SNNPR Gedio Wenago 6,300 661.5 69.5 49.8 66.2 817.0 SNNPR Gedio Yirgachefe 1,890 198.5 20.8 14.6 19.8 245.1 Gedio Total 11,340 1,190.7 125.0 86.7 119.1 1,470.5 SNNPR Hadiya Badawacho 8,190 737.1 77.4 76.3 73.7 910.3 SNNPR Hadiya Konteb-Mish 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR Hadiya Misha 5,040 604.8 63.5 23.6 60.5 746.9 SNNPR Hadiya Gibe 2,583 271.2 28.5 19.7 27.1 335.0 SNNPR Hadiya Limu Shashi 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR Hadiya Limu 5,040 604.8 63.5 38.0 60.5 746.9 SNNPR Hadiya Shashego 7,056 529.2 55.6 43.4 52.9 653.6 SNNPR Hadiya Soro Duna 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR Hadiya Soro 6,300 756.0 79.4 38.8 75.6 933.7 SNNPR Hadiya Duna 4,725 567.0 59.5 23.7 56.7 700.2 Hadiya Total 38,934 4,070.1 427.4 263.4 407.0 5,026.6 SNNPR Konso Konso 7,560 793.8 83.3 218.8 79.4 980.3 Konso Total 7,560 793.8 83.3 218.8 79.4 980.3 SNNPR Burji Burji 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Burji Total 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS: 2005 FOOD SUPPLY PROSPECT 52 Emergency Food Requirement Region Zone Woreda Beneficiaries Cereal Sup_Food Oil Pulses Total SNNPR S.Omo Kuraz 15,506 1,628.2 171.0 62.1 162.8 2,010.8 SNNPR S.Omo Hamer 19,406 2,037.6 214.0 78.3 203.8 2,516.5 SNNPR S.Omo Bakogazer 36,952 3,880.0 407.4 99.8 388.0 4,791.8 SNNPR S.Omo Bena Tsema 17,980 1,887.9 198.2 48.5 188.8 2,331.6 SNNPR S.Omo Salamago 5,270 553.4 58.1 14.2 55.3 683.4 S.Omo Total 95,114 9,987.0 1,048.6 302.9 998.7 12,333.9 SNNPR Bench Maji Maji 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bench Maji Total 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR Dawaro Loma 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR Dawaro Gena Bosa 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dawaro Total 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR KT Angacha 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR KT Kacha Bira 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR KT Kedida Gam 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR KT Omo Shelek 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 KT Total 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR Sidama Aleta Wondo 1,941 174.7 18.3 37.3 17.5 215.7 SNNPR Sidama Aroressa 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR Sidama Awassa 2,232 200.9 21.1 36.8 20.1 248.1 SNNPR Sidama Bensa 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR Sidama Dale 2,325 209.3 22.0 36.7 20.9 258.4 SNNPR Sidama Dara 1,345 121.1 12.7 19.4 12.1 149.5 SNNPR Sidama Shebedino B 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR Sidama Shebedino 3,596 323.6 34.0 22.1 32.4 399.7 SNNPR Sidama Borech 13,104 1,179.4 123.8 72.6 117.9 1,456.5 SNNPR Sidama Hagermariam 2,520 226.8 23.8 6.8 22.7 280.1 Sidama Total 27,063 2,435.7 255.7 231.7 243.6 3,008.1 SNNPR Silti Dalocha 6,930 519.8 54.6 57.6 52.0 641.9 SNNPR Silti Lanfero 7,560 680.4 71.4 53.3 68.0 840.3 SNNPR Silti Sankura 5,985 538.7 56.6 25.6 53.9 665.2 SNNPR Silti Selti 7,245 652.1 68.5 47.7 65.2 805.3 SNNPR Silti Azernet 756 68.0 7.1 2.0 6.8 84.0 SNNPR Silti Meskana an 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Silti Total 28,476 2,458.9 258.2 186.2 245.9 3,036.7 SNNPR Gurage Meskana 9,920 744.0 78.1 42.3 74.4 918.8 SNNPR Gurage Mareko 9,450 850.5 89.3 48.8 85.1 1,050.4 SNNPR Gurage Sodo 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gurage Total 19,370 1,594.5 167.4 91.1 159.5 1,969.2 SNNPR Wolayita Boloso Sore 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR Wolayita Damot Gale 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR Wolayita Damot Weyd 12,400 1,302.0 136.7 114.2 130.2 1,608.0 SNNPR Wolayita Humbo 9,300 976.5 102.5 113.6 97.7 1,206.0 SNNPR Wolayita Kido Koyesh 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR Wolayita Ofa 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNNPR Wolayita Sodo Zuria 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Wolayita Total 21,700 2,278.5 239.2 227.8 227.9 2,813.9 SNNPR Total 325,997.6 31,591.8 3,317.1 2,116.5 3,159.2 39,015.86 Somali Afder Afder/Harge 22,099 4,328.8 454.5 129.9 432.9 5,346.1 Somali Afder Bare 11,911 2,318.5 243.4 69.6 231.8 2,863.3

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS: 2005 FOOD SUPPLY PROSPECT 53 Emergency Food Requirement Region Zone Woreda Beneficiaries Cereal Sup_Food Oil Pulses Total Somali Afder Cherti 5,539 1,092.0 114.7 32.8 109.2 1,348.6 Somali Afder Dolobay 11,228 2,213.6 232.4 66.4 221.4 2,733.8 Somali Afder Elkere 4,093 807.0 84.7 24.2 80.7 996.6 Somali Afder Goro Bokok 3,103 607.7 63.8 18.2 60.8 750.5 Somali Afder Gura Damol 3,948 778.3 81.7 23.3 77.8 961.2 Somali Afder Mirab Misrak 0 925.8 97.2 27.8 92.6 1,143.4 Somali Afder Mirab - Imi 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Afder Total 61,921 13,071.7 1,372.5 392.2 1,307.2 16,143.6 Somali DegehabourAware 9,528 1,854.6 194.7 55.6 185.5 2,290.5 Somali DegehabourDegehabour 22,279 4,364.0 458.2 130.9 436.4 5,389.5 Somali DegehabourDegehamed 7,310 1,422.9 149.4 42.7 142.3 1,757.3 Somali DegehabourGashemo 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Degehabour Total 39,116 7,641.5 802.4 229.2 764.1 9,437.2 Somali Fik Dihun 7,537 1,476.4 155.0 44.3 147.6 1,823.3 Somali Fik Fik 34,607 6,778.9 711.8 203.4 677.9 8,371.9 Somali Fik Gerbo 5,868 1,149.5 120.7 34.5 115.0 1,419.7 Somali Fik Hamero 11,596 2,271.4 238.5 68.1 227.1 2,805.2 Somali Fik Leghida 6,588 1,282.3 134.6 38.5 128.2 1,583.6 Somali Fik Muyu Muluk 5,134 999.4 104.9 30.0 99.9 1,234.2 Somali Fik Segeg 5,659 1,101.5 115.7 33.0 110.1 1,360.3 Somali Fik Selehad 6,250 1,232.1 129.4 37.0 123.2 1,521.6 Fik Total 83,238 16,291.4 1,710.6 488.7 1,629.1 20,119.8 Somali Gode Adadale 7,618 1,492.2 156.7 44.8 149.2 1,842.8 Somali Gode Denan 7,809 1,520.0 159.6 45.6 152.0 1,877.2 Somali Gode Ferfer 5,230 1,024.5 107.6 30.7 102.4 1,265.2 Somali Gode Gode 30,036 5,883.4 617.8 176.5 588.3 7,266.1 Somali Gode Kelafo 13,786 2,700.5 283.5 81.0 270.0 3,335.1 Somali Gode Mustahil 9,658 1,891.8 198.6 56.8 189.2 2,336.3 Somali Gode East Emi 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gode Total 74,136 14,512.3 1,523.8 435.4 1,451.2 17,922.7 Somali Jijiga Awbere 16,338 3,200.3 336.0 96.0 320.0 3,952.4 Somali Jijiga Babile 12,897 2,510.5 263.6 75.3 251.0 3,100.5 Somali Jijiga Gursum 3,459 677.5 71.1 20.3 67.7 836.7 Somali Jijiga Hareshen 7,375 1,435.5 150.7 43.1 143.5 1,772.8 Somali Jijiga Jijiga 24,834 4,864.6 510.8 145.9 486.5 6,007.8 Somali Jijiga Kebribeyah 15,470 2,992.7 314.2 89.8 299.3 3,696.0 Jijiga Total 80,373 15,681.1 1,646.5 470.4 1,568.1 19,366.1 Somali Korahe Debeweyin 8,146 1,595.7 167.6 47.9 159.6 1,970.7 Somali Korahe Kebridehar 26,908 5,270.9 553.4 158.1 527.1 6,509.5 Somali Korahe Shekosh 4,247 826.6 86.8 24.8 82.7 1,020.9 Somali Korahe Shilabo 6,588 1,290.4 135.5 38.7 129.0 1,593.6 Korahe Total 45,889 8,983.6 943.3 269.5 898.4 11,094.8 Somali Liben Dolo Odo 19,819 3,882.1 407.6 116.5 388.2 4,794.4 Somali Liben Liben Hudet 0 1,721.5 180.8 51.6 172.2 2,126.1 Somali Liben Filtu 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Somali Liben Hudet 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Somali Liben Moyale 14,459 2,797.1 293.7 83.9 279.7 3,454.5 Liben Total 34,278 8,400.8 882.1 252.0 840.1 10,375.0 Somali Shinile Afdem 23,108 4,526.5 475.3 135.8 452.6 5,590.2

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS: 2005 FOOD SUPPLY PROSPECT 54 Emergency Food Requirement Region Zone Woreda Beneficiaries Cereal Sup_Food Oil Pulses Total Somali Shinile Ayisha 9,116 1,763.4 185.2 52.9 176.3 2,177.9 Somali Shinile Dambel 13,217 2,556.8 268.5 76.7 255.7 3,157.7 Somali Shinile Erer 12,133 2,376.6 249.5 71.3 237.7 2,935.1 Somali Shinile Meiso 8,829 1,729.4 181.6 51.9 172.9 2,135.9 Somali Shinile Shinile 23,266 4,500.7 472.6 135.0 450.1 5,558.3 Shinile Total 89,668 17,453.5 1,832.6 523.6 1,745.3 21,555.0 Somali Wareder Boh 10,651 2,086.2 219.1 62.6 208.6 2,576.5 Somali Wareder Danot 15,560 3,067.6 322.1 92.0 306.8 3,788.5 Somali Wareder Geladin 11,615 2,246.8 235.9 67.4 224.7 2,774.8 Somali Wareder Wareder 11,416 2,236.1 234.8 67.1 223.6 2,761.6 Wareder Total 49,241 9,636.7 1,011.9 289.1 963.7 11,901.3 Somali Total 557,861.1 111,672.5 11,725.6 3,350.2 11,167.3 137,915.60 Tigrai C.Tigray Abergele 13,185 1,977.7 207.7 117.7 197.8 2,442.5 Tigrai C.Tigray Adiwa 11,864 1,601.6 168.2 112.7 160.2 1,978.0 Tigrai C.Tigray Ahferom/Ent 29,895 4,484.2 470.8 195.0 448.4 5,538.0 Tigrai C.Tigray Degua Temb 7,746 1,161.8 122.0 80.7 116.2 1,434.9 Tigrai C.Tigray Kola Tembe 10,340 1,551.1 162.9 142.6 155.1 1,915.5 Tigrai C.Tigray Laelay Mayc 1,811 190.1 20.0 43.9 19.0 234.8 Tigrai C.Tigray Mereb Lehe 18,974 2,846.1 298.8 134.5 284.6 3,514.9 Tigrai C.Tigray Naeder Adet 4,374 656.1 68.9 76.8 65.6 810.3 Tigrai C.Tigray Tahtay Mayc 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tigrai C.Tigray Werie Lehe 25,194 3,779.1 396.8 176.8 377.9 4,667.2 C.Tigray Total 123,382 18,247.9 1,916.0 1,080.8 1,824.8 22,536.1 Tigrai E.Tigray Atsbi Wenbe 22,055 2,977.4 312.6 224.0 297.7 3,677.1 Tigrai E.Tigray Ganta Afesh 19,868 2,682.2 281.6 193.5 268.2 3,312.5 Tigrai E.Tigray Erob 788 106.3 11.2 38.2 10.6 131.3 Tigrai E.Tigray Gulomahda 20,632 2,785.4 292.5 130.8 278.5 3,439.9 Tigrai E.Tigray Hawzen 25,737 3,474.5 364.8 151.1 347.4 4,291.0 Tigrai E.Tigray Saesi Tsaed 14,523 1,960.7 205.9 200.9 196.1 2,421.4 Tigrai E.Tigray Wukro 6,997 944.6 99.2 224.2 94.5 1,166.6 E.Tigray Total 110,601 14,931.1 1,567.8 1,162.7 1,493.1 18,439.9 Tigrai S.Tigray Alaje 6,370 859.9 90.3 55.6 86.0 1,062.0 Tigrai S.Tigray Alamata 18,555 2,504.9 263.0 106.2 250.5 3,093.6 Tigrai S.Tigray Endamehon 2,202 297.3 31.2 63.1 29.7 367.1 Tigrai S.Tigray Enderta 28,870 3,897.5 409.2 192.0 389.8 4,813.4 Tigrai S.Tigray Hintalo Waji 24,599 3,320.9 348.7 158.2 332.1 4,101.3 Tigrai S.Tigray Ofla 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tigrai S.Tigray Raya Azebo 30,017 4,052.3 425.5 168.1 405.2 5,004.6 Tigrai S.Tigray Samre Shart 20,434 2,758.6 289.7 134.4 275.9 3,406.9 S.Tigray Total 131,048 17,691.4 1,857.6 877.6 1,769.1 21,848.9 Tigrai W.Tigray Laelay Adiya 10,452 1,254.3 131.7 51.8 125.4 1,549.1 Tigrai W.Tigray A/tsembla 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tigrai W.Tigray Medebay Za 3,363 302.7 31.8 33.8 30.3 373.8 Tigrai W.Tigray Tahtay Adiya 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tigrai W.Tigray T.Koraro 3,921 588.1 61.7 10.6 58.8 726.3 Tigrai W.Tigray Tselemti 5,880 882.0 92.6 101.9 88.2 1,089.3 W.Tigray Total 23,616 3,027.0 317.8 198.0 302.7 3,738.4 Tigrai Total 388,646.4 53,897.4 5,659.2 3,319.2 5,389.7 66,563.34 Gambella Annwa Allweroopen 10,000 900.0 94.5 27.0 90.0 1,111.5

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS: 2005 FOOD SUPPLY PROSPECT 55 Emergency Food Requirement Region Zone Woreda Beneficiaries Cereal Sup_Food Oil Pulses Total Gambella Annwa Gillo 10,500 945.0 99.2 28.4 94.5 1,167.1 Gambella Annwa Dima 6,500 585.0 61.4 17.6 58.5 722.5 Annwa Total 27,000 2,430.0 255.2 72.9 243.0 3,001.1 Gambella Nuer Akobo 11,000 990.0 104.0 29.7 99.0 1,222.7 Gambella Nuer Jikawo 8,500 765.0 80.3 23.0 76.5 944.8 Nuer Total 19,500 1,755.0 184.3 52.7 175.5 2,167.4 Gambella Megenger Godere 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gambella Megenger 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Megenger Total 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gambella Gambella S.Gambella Zu 3,000 270.0 28.4 8.1 27.0 333.5 Gambella S.w Total 3,000 270.0 28.4 8.1 27.0 333.5 Gambella Total 49,500.0 4,455.0 467.8 133.7 445.5 5,501.93 B. Gumuz Assosa Assosa 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 B. Gumuz Assosa Homosha 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 B. Gumuz Assosa Kurmuk 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 B. Gumuz Assosa Oda Bidiglu 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 B. Gumuz Assosa Sherkole 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Assosa Total 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 B. Gumuz Metekel Guba 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Metekel Total 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 B. Gumuz Kamashi Kamashi 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 B. Gumuz Kamashi Agelo Meti 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Kamashi Total 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 B. Gumuz Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 Grand Total 2,182,098 313,750.9 32,943.8 15,656.2 31,375.1 387,482.4 Grand Total 2,182,098.1 313,750.9 32,943.8 15,656.2 31,375.1 387,482.41

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS: 2005 FOOD SUPPLY PROSPECT 56