IDENTIFYING COMPARABLE AREAS
A MACHINE LEARNING SOLUTION FOR THE ROAD CASUALTIES INVESTIGATION PROJECT DR CRAIG SMITH AND BRUCE WALTON THE TASK
Road Collision Investigation Project
https://www.racfoundation.org/collaborations/road-collision-investigation-project
• Humberside • West Midlands ? • Dorset, Devon and Cornwall • Two forces WHAT IS A NEURAL NETWORK?
Input Model Data Outputs
Error
Known Outputs Update Model UNSUPERVISED LEARNING
Output Data Input Data = Input Data UNSUPERVISED LEARNING
Clustering Encoded Algorithm Intelligently Input Data Latent Clustered Variables Data MODEL INPUT VARIABLES
• Network density • Population density • Percentage of road length by class • Population deprivation • Motorway • Average score in Index of Multiple • A Road Deprivation • B Road • More Deprived % (top half of IMD scores) • Unclassified Road • Less Deprived % (bottom half of IMD scores) • Percentage of road length by rurality • Percentage of breakdowns that are near • Rural home • Town • Urban • Percentage of road length by traffic (AADF) • Quiet (bottom quartile), Normal (inter- quartile), or Busy (top quartile) • Separately for Motorway, A Road, Other THE CHALLENGES
Police Scotland has many collisions and a very diverse network
Metropolitan Police has very many collisions and a unique network SOLUTION FOR SCOTLAND
• Legacy areas were basis for solution • Strathclyde was the only one of comparable size to English forces
POLICE SCOTLAND NORTH
• Strathclyde used alone • Police Scotland North
• Three legacy forces POLICE SCOTLAND • Police Scotland South SOUTH • Four legacy forces SOLUTION FOR SMALL FORCES
• Twelve forces have fewer collisions than Police Scotland North
• Eight pairs of forces • Only two pairs are contiguous • One set of three forces • North Yorkshire with Wiltshire and Gloucestershire • Police Scotland areas also paired • South with Cumbria • North with Dyfed-Powys CLUSTERS
Norfolk with Suffolk Police Scotland North Lincolnshire with with Dyfed-Powys North Wales Police Scotland South East West Mercia Cambridgeshire with Warwickshire with Cumbria Humberside
North Yorkshire with Devon & Cornwall Wiltshire and Police Scotland South West Northumbria with Dorset Gloucestershire (Strathclyde) with Durham Avon & Thames Valley Police Somerset Staffordshire with Hampshire Hertfordshire Cleveland Lancashire with Gwent Leicestershire Surrey Nottinghamshire South Yorkshire Essex South West Yorkshire Cheshire with Wales Sussex Greater Kent Northamptonshire Manchester Merseyside Metropolitan Derbyshire with West Police Bedfordshire Midlands CLUSTERS
West Mercia Humberside
Devon & Cornwall with Dorset
Avon & Somerset
Greater Manchester Metropolitan West Police Midlands THE RESULT
HUMBERSIDE
GREATER MANCHESTER
WEST MIDLANDS AVON AND SOMERSET WEST MERCIA
DORSET, DEVON AND CORNWALL DR CRAIG SMITH BRUCE WALTON [email protected] [email protected]