The Effects of Orbital Precession on Remote Climate Monitoring
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4330 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 14 The Effects of Orbital Precession on Remote Climate Monitoring STEPHEN S. LEROY* Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark (Manuscript received 22 January 2001, in ®nal form 30 May 2001) ABSTRACT The effect of the diurnal cycle when monitoring the climate from low earth orbit is examined brie¯y. Equations are derived that relate the harmonics of the diurnal cycle to temporal sampling error and drift rates in that error. Special attention is given to nodal precession of satellite orbits. Using an insolated blackbody as a simple model for the diurnal cycle, roughly simulating subtropical desert surface temperature, the effects of orbital precession are examined numerically. From an initial con®guration, wherein satellites are evenly spaced in nodal crossing time, minor differences in precession rates lead to biases proportional to the amplitude of the semidiurnal cycle and inversely to the square root of the number of satellites. Overall biases for a single mission can be dramatically reduced by ¯ying in a formation wherein the satellites' orbits are evenly distributed in their equator-crossing times. To monitor surface temperature, it is suggested that at least six satellites be ¯own in formation and that their precession rates be controlled to well within 25 min. The tolerance for monitoring any other variable can be scaled according to the size of its semidiurnal cycle. 1. Introduction Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather sat- ellites, notably the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU; Several organizations throughout the world are con- Spencer and Christy 1992a,b). Individual MSUs have templating placing instruments into low Earth orbit in been shown to measure hermispheric mean temperatures an attempt to monitor trends in the climate system. For with a precision of 0.01 K, but the accuracy of the MSU example, the European Organisation for the Exploitation measurements is not completely understood. In the fu- of Meteorological Satellites (Eumetsat) Polar System ture, the Metop and NPOESS series of satellites are will monitor the climate by means of a series of Me- expected to monitor the climate, and alternative, lower- teorological Operational (Metop) satellites, and the U.S. cost instruments also are being considered. (Goody et Interagency Program Of®ce (IPO) will implement the al. 1998). These alternatives are a constellation of or- National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Sat- biting interferometers obtaining high-resolution infrared ellite System (NPOESS) series for similar purposes. The spectra and a constellation of orbiting global positioning tightest constraint on any climate observing system must system (GPS) receivers collecting occultations of the be that it can measure either very small climate trends atmosphere (Melbourne et al. 1994). Two constellations over the course of its lifetime or that it has negligible of GPS occultation receivers are being considered: the systematic bias so that it can be directly compared with Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ion- future measurements using the same technique. As an osphere, and Climate of Taiwan (Rocken et al. 2000), upper limit, it would be desireable to monitor the warm- and the Atmospheric Chemistry Explorer mission of the 21 ing of the climate, with an accuracy of ø0.01 K yr , European Space Agency (ESA) (Hoeg and Leppelmeier typical of model predictions (Kattenberg et al. 1996). 2000). In the past, many attempts to monitor trends in tro- Whenever one formulates a time series by averaging pospheric temperature were done with instruments in data derived from satellite measurements over short in- the Television Infrared Observational Satellite (TIROS) tervals of time, one must contend with the inability of Operational Vertical Sounder suite aboard the National that satellite to measure at all times of day at every location on the globe. In geostationary orbit, a tempo- * Permanent af®liation: Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California In- rally continuous dataset can be obtained, but spatial uni- stitute of Technology, Pasadena, California. formity cannot be obtained. Conversely, in low earth orbit (LEO), a satellite can obtain spatial uniformity but not a temporally uniform dataset. In the latter case, ev- Corresponding author address: Stephen S. Leroy, Danish Mete- orological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, DK-2100 Copenhagen é, Den- ery position on the globe is sampled 2 times daily sep- mark. arated by almost exactly 12 h, once when the satellite E-mail: [email protected] is on the ascending branch of its orbit and then when q 2001 American Meteorological Society Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/30/21 03:13 PM UTC 15 NOVEMBER 2001 LEROY 4331 solar time must be obtained to suppress sampling error due to the diurnal cycle. There are other effects related to the harmonics of the diurnal cycle that complicate the temporal sampling error. For one, even the 24-h-period ¯uctuations might contribute to sampling error biases and trends at high latitudes because in these regions the twice-daily sam- pling is not separated by exactly 12 h for sun-synchro- nous orbits, whose inclinations are typically 988. Fur- thermore, all odd-number harmonics of the diurnal cycle are expected to be removed by twice-daily sampling, but all even-numbered harmonics are expected to con- tribute to the temporal sampling error. Because the diurnal cycle as forced by insolation can be expected to be systematic over monthly timescales, the temporal sampling error of measurements by a sin- gle-LEO measuring system is examined given that the ¯uctuations are those due to a solar-forced diurnal cycle. Whether the sampling error can be suppressed if mul- tiple LEOs are used is also examined. Last, the effects FIG. 1. Plots of the hour displacement as a function of latitude for of both single LEO and multiple-LEO sampling systems various inclinations. A sun-synchronous orbit has an inclination of 98.28 corresponding to the solid curve. in con®gurations that precess even only slightly are ex- amined. Here the term ``climate monitoring'' refers to using satellite data as a kind of thermometer of the earth's the satellite is on its descending branch. With only these climate system. The equations presented here apply to measurements, when constructing a bias-free time series any geophysical scalar variable of the climate, mainly one would have to assume that temporal ¯uctuations those geophysical variables that are likely to contain a that occur exactly when the measurements are taken do signature of the diurnal forcing by solar insolation. Oth- not affect a long-term average of the measurements of ers have examined the sampling error in measurements that quantity. Fluctuations do occur, though, and dom- of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) likely to be in- inant among systematic temporal ¯uctuations that might curred by single-satellite systems (Salby 1982a,b). A affect a twice-daily measuring system are those asso- geophysical variable whose diurnal signature strongly affects OLR is cloud cover (Bergman and Salby 1996). ciated with the diurnal cycle of the quantity being mea- Stratospheric trace species also have a strong diurnal sured. signature that hampers their monitoring by the Upper- A LEO can largely eliminate ¯uctuations that occur Atmosphere Research Satellite (Salby 1987). with a 24-h period, but it cannot eliminate ¯uctuations In this paper, an analytic formulation is given for that occur with a 12-h period. Because measurements translating a diurnal cycle into the biases it would pro- are separated by 12 h, the ¯uctuation from a true daily duce through temporal sampling error of an arbitrary mean of one observation is exactly the opposite of the multisatellite climate sampling system. This formulation ¯uctuation from a true daily mean of the other obser- can be applied to analyze the likely impacts of a diurnal vation, provided that its period is 24 h. If the ¯uctuation cycle in midtropospheric temperature in the MSU da- has a period of 12 h though, the ¯uctuation of the ®rst taset; however, this would require a season-long con- observation has the same sign as the ¯uctuation of the tinuous record of midtropospheric in situ temperature second observation; thus, the twice-daily cycle of the data at intervals of minutes, a project to be done in ¯uctuation adds a systematic bias onto the true climate another paper. In the next section, the formulation is mean, and this bias is a major component of the tem- applied to a simple model of the diurnal cycleÐthat of poral sampling error of this particular sampling pattern. surface temperature in a tropical desert regionÐand (In truth, temporal sampling error can also arise from compare the sampling error as produced by a single- undersampling cycles other than the diurnal cycle, but satellite system to that produced using a multisatellite in this paper only the diurnal cycle is directly ad- observing system. In the ®nal section, a summary and dressed.) The sampling error can also take the form of discussion of the implications of this work is given and a trend because of aliasing of the diurnal cycle by nodal recommendations for future climate monitoring exper- precession of satellites' orbits. Thus, because even the iments are made. most stable sun-synchronous orbits precess, the tem- poral sampling error can be exhibited as a trending bias 2. Formulation in any climate monitoring system. Should a multisatel- The most general con®guration assumed is m different lite system be used, however, enough coverage in local satellites in orbits with different inclinations, ascending Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/30/21 03:13 PM UTC 4332 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 14 FIG. 2. Filter function for three evenly spaced orbits with inclination 98.28, time t 5 0. Squares indicate the real part of the ®lter and diamonds the imaginary part. The latitude is (a) 23.458N, (b) 66.558N. 2 nodes, and nodal precession rates.