Colorado Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters

COLORADO POST ELECTION SURVEY OF UNAFFILIATED VOTERS

November 7th - 9th, 2018 Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 2 Methodology

Ø Magellan Strategies is pleased to present the results of a 500n survey of unaffiliated 2018 general election voters in the state of Colorado.

Ø The interviews were conducted from November 7th - 9th, 2018.

Ø The overall survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95% confidence interval. Subgroups of voters will have higher margin of error than the overall population.

Ø The survey results were weighted slightly based upon the 2018 general election voter turnout demographics for unaffiliated voters.

Ø David Flaherty was the principal researcher on this project. Courtney Sievers was the project director. Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 3

Demographics

28% 48% 52% 19% 19% 16% 17%

MALE FEMALE 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 PLUS

1% 29% 17%

84% 53%

2% 7% 4% 4% CONSERVATIVE MODERATE

WHITE HISPANIC/LATINO BLACK/AFRICAN OTHER DON'T KNOW/ AMERICAN REFUSED LIBERAL UNSURE/REF Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 4

Marital Status City vs. Rural

58% 10% 17% 47% 25%

SUBURBAN AREA 18% BIG CITY

SMALL TOWN 5% 6% 7% 6% RURAL AREA

MARRIED SINGLE, NEVER SINGLE, LIVING WIDOWED SEPARATED/ REFUSED MARRIED PARTNER DIVORCED 5

KEY FINDINGS Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 6 Key Findings

Ø For the first time ever in a Colorado mid-term election, unaffiliated voter turnout (893,436) and Democratic voter turnout (822,230) was higher than Republican turnout (803,143), and by a significant margin. In the 2014 mid- term election, Republican voter turnout was 774,923, Democratic voter turnout was 664,532 and unaffiliated voter turnout was 634,296.

Ø Voter enthusiasm was overwhelming among Democratic and unaffiliated voters compared to Republican voters. In the 2014 mid-term election, 68% of registered Republicans turned out to vote, compared to 71% of Republicans in 2018, a 3-point increase. Among registered Democrat voters 2018, 71% turned out to vote, a 12-point increase from 59% in the 2014 election. Unaffiliated voters increased their percentage of voter turnout by 11-points, from 46% in 2014 to 57% in 2018.

Ø Unaffiliated female voters were much more polarized and less willing to consider candidates of both parties in 2018 compared to 2016. In 2016 36% considered candidates of both parties equally compared to only 15% this election cycle. Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 7 Key Findings

Ø A larger percentage of unaffiliated voters made their candidate choice for Governor closer to Election Day compared to 2014. Among all respondents, 28% made their decision the week before the election, compared to 13% in 2014. One-third, or 34%, made their decision in early to mid-October compared to 24% in 2014.

Ø There is no question that Donald Trump had a negative impact on Republican candidates, with 34% of unaffiliated voters saying they were less likely to vote for a Republican candidate because of his influence. In addition, President Trump’s job approval among all unaffiliated voters is toxic, with only 31% approving of the job he is doing, 62% disapproving, and 48% strongly disapproving of the job he is doing.

Ø Overwhelmingly, the top two issues that were important to unaffiliated voters and influenced their vote for Governor and the state legislature were education and healthcare. Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 8 Key Findings Ø 59% of respondents said they voted for Jared Polis and 25% voted for Walker Stapleton, for a Polis win margin of 34%. Among male unaffiliated voters the Polis win margin was 24 points (53% to 29%) and among unaffiliated women it was 45 points (65% to 20%).

Ø Unaffiliated voters supported Jared Polis because of his positions on education, healthcare and the environment. They also liked his business background and viewed him to be a more competent and qualified candidate compared to Walker Stapleton. Reasons some unaffiliated voters opposed Jared Polis were fears that he would raise taxes, increase government spending, and would be hostile to the oil and gas industry.

Ø The top reasons unaffiliated voters supported Walker Stapleton were his fiscally conservative positions on taxes and balancing the budget. Only a few unaffiliated voters supported him for his positions on sanctuary cities and his support of Donald Trump and his policies. At the same time, many more unaffiliated voters opposed him for the same reason – his support of Donald Trump and his policies. Throughout the verbatim responses, unaffiliated voters describe Walker Stapleton as being a liar, dishonest and untrustworthy because of his false attacks on Jared Polis and claiming to be a 4th generation Coloradan. Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 9 Key Findings

Ø The Democrat Party has a net positive image rating among unaffiliated voters, with 45% having a favorable opinion of the party and 31% an unfavorable opinion. The Republican Party has a net negative image rating, with only 25% of respondents having a favorable opinion of the party and 53% having an unfavorable opinion.

Ø A majority of unaffiliated voters, 51%, want the government to do more to solve the country’s problems, while 34% think the government is doing too much. This is a significant change of opinion compared to unaffiliated voters who voted in the 2016 election, where 61% thought the government was doing too much and only 26% thought the government should do more.

Ø A 2020 Presidential ballot test finds 55% of unaffiliated voters supporting the “generic” Democratic candidate, 23% supporting Donald Trump, 4% supporting an “other” candidate and 17% were undecided. 10

UNAFFILIATED VOTER PARTISAN LEANINGS Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 11 When it comes to elections for state and local offices, which of the following choices best describe how you typically vote?

31%

20% 16% 14%

10% 9%

ALWAYS MORE DEM BOTH PARTIES MORE REP THAN ALWAYS UNSURE REFUSED DEMOCRAT THAN REP EQUAL DEM REPUBLICAN Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 12 When it comes to elections for state and local offices, which of the following choices best describe how you typically vote?

27% 31% 15% 10% 9% 8% WOMEN

14% 31% 18% 17% 10% 10% MEN

ALWAYS DEMOCRAT MORE DEM THAN REP BOTH PARTIES EQUAL MORE REP THAN DEM ALWAYS REPUBLICAN UNSURE REFUSED Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 13 When it comes to elections for state and local offices, which of the following choices best describe how you typically vote?

65+ 19% 23% 17% 13% 15% 12%

55-64 16% 25% 15% 24% 10% 10%

45-54 19% 40% 14% 8% 11% 7%

35-44 17% 30% 20% 15% 5% 12%

18-34 26% 35% 16% 10% 7% 6%

ALWAYS DEMOCRAT MORE DEM THAN REP BOTH PARTIES EQUAL MORE REP THAN DEM ALWAYS REPUBLICAN UNSURE REFUSED Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 14 When it comes to elections for state and local offices, which of the following choices best describe how you typically vote?

2% 40% 42% 11% 4% LIBERAL 1%

13% 35% 22% 13% 6% 11% MODERATE

2% 6% 10% 34% 37% 10% CONSERVATIVE

ALWAYS DEMOCRAT MORE DEM THAN REP BOTH PARTIES EQUAL MORE REP THAN DEM ALWAYS REPUBLICAN UNSURE REFUSED 15

WHEN DID VOTERS MAKE UP THEIR MIND ABOUT CHOICE FOR GOVERNOR? Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 16 When did you make up your mind about who you would vote for in the election for Governor? Did you make up your mind on Election Day, a week before the election, in early to mid-October, in September or before September?

34%

28%

20%

10% 6% 2%

ON ELECTION WEEK BEFORE EARLY MID SEPTEMBER BEFORE DON'T REFUSED DAY OCTOBER SEPTEMBER REMEMBER UNSURE 17

VOTER OPINION ON SIZE OF GOVERNMENT Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 18 Some people think the government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses. While…other people think that the government should do more to solve the country’s problems. Which comes closer to your point of view?

15%

57% 51% 45% 40% 34% 28% 15% 15%

MEN WOMEN

GOVERNMENT SHOULD DO MORE

GOVERNMENT DOING TOO MUCH 68% 70% UNSURE NO OPINION 47% 35% REFUSED 27% 18% 15% 15% 5% CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 19 Some people think the government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses. While…other people think that the government should do more to solve the country’s problems. Which comes closer to your point of view? 15% 51% 34%

GOVERNMENT SHOULD DO MORE GOVERNMENT DOING TOO MUCH UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED

59% 57% 43% 45% 46% 46% 34% 39% 28% 28% 23% 15% 16% 13% 10%

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 20

TOP ISSUES INFLUENCING VOTE Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 21 Please tell me the top issues that were really important to you this election, and influenced your decisions for Governor and the state legislature.

Major Themes “Healthcare and “Silence Trump. education.” Healthcare, especially the Healthcare -Male, 45-54, Liberal pre-existing conditions. Immigration.” Education -Female, 65+, Liberal Donald Trump (Positive and Negative) “Donald Trump is destroying this country, Immigration/Sanctuary Cities that is why I am Roads supporting the Democrat.” “Healthcare, education and -Female, 65+, Liberal taxes.” -Female, 35-44, Moderate “Roads and healthcare.” “Education, taxes and -Male, 35-44, “Education and immigration.” Conservative healthcare.” -Female, 55-64, -Male, 18-34, Moderate Moderate

“Immigration. Doing away with sanctuary cities. Our budget, that we don't destroy the excellent economy climate we have “Mental health services, “Education, Healthcare had for the past decades by over taxing environment, healthcare in and other social issues.” and spending.” general and immigration.” -Female, 18-34, Liberal -Female, 65+, Conservative -Female, 18-34, Liberal 22

GOVERNOR BALLOT TEST Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 23

As you may remember, in the election for Governor, Walker Stapleton was the Republican candidate and Jared Polis was the Democrat candidate, can you tell me who you voted for in that election?

4% 1% 11%

25% 59% 65% 53%

29% 21% 5% 1% 12% 3% 2% 9%

MEN WOMEN

POLIS STAPLETON

SOME OTHER CANDIDATE 88% 79% DON'T KNOW DON'T REMEMBER 57% REFUSED 20% 14% 2% 5% 5% 2% 16% 2% 3% 2% 5%

CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 24

As you may remember, in the election for Governor, Walker Stapleton was the Republican candidate and Jared Polis was the Democrat candidate, can you tell me who you voted for in that election?

4% 11% 1% 25% 59%

POLIS STAPLETON SOME OTHER CANDIDATE DON'T KNOW DON'T REMEMBER REFUSED

68% 57% 61% 56% 46% 38% 31% 24% 16% 21% 4% 2% 10% 5% 3% 13% 4% 1% 9% 4% 1% 10% 2% 1% 11% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 25 Would you say that your vote for Walker Stapleton was truly a vote for him and his campaign, or was it more of a vote against the Democrat candidate Jared Polis? (Asked to respondents who voted for Walker Stapleton, 125n, +/- 8.76 MoE)

36% 59%

TRULY VOTE FOR STAPLETON VOTE AGAINST POLIS NEITHER REASON UNSURE NO OPINION Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 26

Would you say that your vote for Jared Polis was truly a vote for him and his campaign, or was it more of a vote against Donald Trump and the Republican party’s policies? (Asked to respondents who voted for Jared Polis, 294n, +/- 5.71 MoE)

2% 2% 38% 58%

TRULY VOTE FOR POLIS VOTE AGAINST TRUMP REPUBLICAN PARTY NEITHER REASON UNSURE NO OPINION Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 27

Now I would like to talk about the good and the bad points of each candidate for Governor. Was there anything about Walker Stapleton and his campaign that made you want to vote for him or against him? Positive Comments on Stapleton “I voted for Stapleton because of his “I vote for him because Positive Themes responsibilities in taxes he I am a Trump supporter says that without raising and he helps children to Trump Supporter, True Republican taxes, we can solve our get education.” -Male, 35-44, transportation problems by Fiscal Conservative demanding more.” Conservative, Stapleton -Male, 55-64, Moderate, Lowering Taxes Stapleton Balancing the Budget

“He is a Republican that's a “He's more conservative most important part.” and cares about -Female, 65+, Conservative, protecting our borders.” Stapleton Voter “He is supports gun rights “Vote for him because and lesser in taxes.” -Female, 55-64, of his budget skills.” Conservative, Stapleton -Male, 45-54, Stapleton -Female, 55-64, Voter Voter Moderate, Stapleton Voter

“I vote for him because he is a Republican and “That made me vote for Stapleton is, supporting Donald because, he wanted to cut the taxes and “He is business friendly that is Trump. Donald Trump is balanced the budget.” what I like about him.” creating jobs for people -Male, 35-44, Conservative, Stapleton -Male, 45-54, Moderate, that is a main reason.” Voter Stapleton Voter -Male, Conservative, Stapleton Voter Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 28

“I do not want to vote Negative Themes for Stapleton, because “Walker is trying to put down he is Republican.” Polis all the time. In that time Republican, Donald Trump and Policies -Female, 18-34, Liberal, he should do more focus on Polis Voter what is important for his Liar, Dishonest, Untrustworthy party.” -Female, 45-54, Liberal, Polis Negative Campaign Voter “Because he is being supported by Trump.” -Female, 35-44, Moderate, Polis Voter “Ran a lot of negative ads.” “To vote against because -Male, 65+, Moderate, he supports Donald Trump.” Polis Voter “He is not trustworthy, -Male, 18-34, Liberal, Polis generally conservative Voter “He is a big time liar.” which is not good. ” -Male, 45-54, Liberal, -Female, 45-54, Liberal, Polis Voter Polis Voter

“Policies, dirty campaign ads, like Trump, lies.” “He lies, he lied about -Female, 55-64, Conservative, Polis “God has given him a being a fourth- Voter mouth for lying.” -Female, 35-44, generation Coloradan.” Moderate, Polis Voter -Female, 45-54, Liberal, Polis Voter Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 29 Was there anything about Jared Polis and his campaign that made you want to vote for him or against him? Positive Comments on Polis

Positive Themes “He was the better “I like everything that was candidate.” done by Jared Polis. He is Position on Education -Female, 18-34, Liberal, taking steps for improving the Polis Voter healthcare and Position on Healthcare environment.” -Female, 65+, Liberal, Polis Environmental Stance Voter “Nothing really, I just Business Background think he is the better More Trustworthy and more competent candidate.” -Female, 45-54, Liberal, “His reform ideas for “He is for education and Polis Voter education and healthcare.” had a nicer campaign “Help provide quality -Male, 18-34, Moderate, because his ads were and affordable Polis Voter not mean.” education.” -Female, 35-44, -Female, 18-34, Moderate, Polis Voter Moderate, Polis Voter “His stance on single payer healthcare and him being an openly gay man in politics is a “He is all for education and helping all representation we community not just to please small “He seems to be interested in need in our group of people.” the healthcare, education and government.” -Female, 65+, Polis Voter wanting to hopefully stand for the people of Colorado.” -Male, 18-34, -Female, 55-64, Moderate, Polis Moderate, Polis Voter Voter Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 30 Was there anything about Jared Polis and his campaign that made you want to vote for him or against him? Negative Comments on Polis “He is going to raise the taxes and I do not like Negative Themes this at all.” “His government controlled -Male, 65+, Moderate, healthcare plan made me Raise Taxes Other Candidate not to vote for him.” -Male, 65+, Conservative, Increase Government Spending Stapleton Voter “He seemed more Hurt Oil and Gas Industry socialist then Socialist democrat.” -Male, 18-34, Moderate, Stapleton Voter “I don't trust him about taxes.” “He is too much of -Male, 35-44, Moderate, socialist.” “I was afraid of Jared's “I did not like tax plans Don’t Remember -Male, 65+, Moderate, Other Candidate tax increases.” and medical plans.” -Male, 18-34, -Female, 65+, Conservative, Stapleton Conservative, Stapleton Voter Voter

“I think his tax policies and programs are “Vote against him one of the major things he has done, but because he raises too Colorado can not afford Polis.” “His renewable energy and his much taxes and too much -Female, 55-64, Conservative, Stapleton policies are crazy and his free government programs.” Voter schools don't work.” -Male, 55-64, Moderate, -Male, 55-64, Conservative, Stapleton Voter Stapleton Voter Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 31

Did you watch any of the debates in the election Governor?

32%

68%

YES NO 32

VOTER OPINION OF TELEVISION ADS AND DIRECT MAIL Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 33

Among the following options, which best describes your attitude towards political candidate television ads?

1% 18% 42%

42% 45% 39% 38% 36%

17% 18% 2% 1%

MEN WOMEN

DON'T WATCH POLITICAL ADS IGNORE FAST FORWARD WATCH ADS MAKE NO DIFFERENCE

WATCH ADS SOMETIMES INFLUENCE 49% 43% 41% 41% VOTE 37% 35%

UNSURE REFUSED 16% 20% 16% 1% 2% 1%

CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 34 Among the following options, which best describes your attitude towards political candidate television ads? 18% 1% 42% 39%

DON'T WATCH POLITICAL ADS IGNORE FAST FORWARD WATCH ADS MAKE NO DIFFERENCE WATCH ADS SOMETIMES INFLUENCE VOTE UNSURE REFUSED

49% 49% 42% 42% 40% 40% 38% 37% 35% 31% 21% 18% 18% 16% 16% 2% 2% 4% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 35

Among the following options, which best describes your attitude towards political candidate mailings?

18% 1% 48%

51% 33% 46% 35% 31% 17% 18% 2%

MEN WOMEN

DON'T READ MAILER IGNORE THROW THEM AWAY READ MAILER MAKES NO DIFFERENCE

51% 51% READ MAILER SOMETIMES INFLUENCE 46% VOTE 34% 35% 29% UNSURE REFUSED 15% 18% 19% 1% 2%

CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 36

Among the following options, which best describes your attitude towards political candidate mailings?

18% 1% 48% 33%

DON'T READ MAILER IGNORE THROW THEM AWAY READ MAILER MAKES NO DIFFERENCE READ MAILER SOMETIMES INFLUENCE VOTE UNSURE REFUSED

51% 51% 49% 46% 44% 40% 33% 31% 32% 29% 19% 22% 15% 17% 17% 2% 1% 4% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 37

REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRAT PARTY IMAGE RATINGS Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 38 Republican vs. Democrat Party Image Ratings

Republican Party Image Democrat Party Image

53% 45%

31% 23% 25% 20% 2% 1%

Total Favorable Total Favorable Neutral Neutral Total Unfavorable Total Unfavorable Unsure/Refused Unsure/Refused Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 39 Republican Party Image Rating 2014 to 2018

53%

45% 45%

34% 33% 25% 21% 20% 20% 1% 1% 2%

2014* 2016* 2018 Total Favorable Neutral Total Unfavorable Unsure/Refused

*2014 and 2016 surveys included only Unaffiliated Women. Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 40

Is there anything in particular that you like or do not like about the Republican Party?

“That they are racist.” Republican Themes -Female, 18-34, Conservative “I like their policies on the Positive – Economy, Jobs economy and that they have lowered taxes for small Positive – Lowering Taxes businesses. I dislike their “They promote hate stance on abortion.” Negative – Promoting Hate, Racism speech and smear -Male, 18-34, Moderate Negative – Hostile Towards Immigrants campaigns.” -Female, 18-34, Liberal Negative – Not Standing Up to President Trump

“I am very pleased that they “They blindly support “Yes, they want less reduced the taxes for this whatever Trump does.” spending on taxes.” year.” -Female, 45-54, Liberal -Female, 18-34, “They are religious -Male, 65+, Moderate Moderate extremists.” -Male, 18-34, Moderate

“I don't like much about “They make conservative policies their approach to and support smaller healthcare and government.” education, and they are -Male, 45-54, Conservative “I like that they are pro business, pro military.” “Don't like the conservative when it -Male, 35-44, Moderate immigration policies.” comes to women rights.” -Female, 18-34, Liberal -Female, 45-54, Moderate Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 41 Democrat Party Image Rating 2014 to 2018

46% 45% 43% 36% 34% 31%

23% 20% 19%

1% 1% 1%

2014* 2016* 2018 Total Favorable Neutral Total Unfavorable Unsure/Refused

*2014 and 2016 surveys included only Unaffiliated Women. Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 42

Is there anything in particular that you like or do not like about the Democrat Party?

Democrat Themes “They try to use “I like social and international government too much Healthcare affordability, insurance, premiums, views. Responsibility towards to control people's life.” minorities.” medications, prescriptions -Male, 45-54, Moderate -Male, 18-34, Liberal Addressing mental health problems

Drug treatment and prevention Strengthening Medicaid, Medicare “I don't like any talk of increasing social welfare All of the above programs and open “They are not perfect but borders.” they support equal support -Male, 18-34, Conservative for all.” “They seem to care -Female, 55-64, Liberal about the environment “Raise too much taxes, and other social issues.” more government -Male, 18-34, Liberal programs.” -Male, 55-64, Moderate

“I like their policies for gun control, “They are trying to limit “They are working more environment, and healthcare.” our Freedom.” on healthcare.” -Female, 35-44, Liberal -Male, 18-34, Liberal -Male, 18-34, Moderate 43

PRESIDENT TRUMP JOB APPROVAL Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 44 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

6% 1% 31%

70% 62% 54% 38% 24% 2% 6% 5% MEN WOMEN

TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 90% 77% Strongly Approve 16% 60% Somewhat Approve 15% 30% Strongly Disapprove 48% 18% 2% 3% 5% 7% 7% Somewhat Disapprove 14% CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 45 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? 6% Strongly Approve 16% 1% 31% Somewhat Approve 15% Strongly Disapprove 48% 62% Somewhat Disapprove 14%

TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED

69% 65% 61% 55% 56% 41% 34% 31% 25% 29% 5% 1% 8% 3% 5% 1% 3% 6% 2% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 46

VOTER OPINION ON TRUMP INFLUENCE Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 47 Did Donald Trump influence your vote this election?

50% 49%

YES NO REFUSED Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 48 Did Donald Trump’s influence make you more likely or less likely to vote for Republican candidates, or did his influence not make a difference in your decision? (Only asked to voters who said were influenced, 245n, +/- 6.26%) 4% 1% 25%

76% 70% 64% 33% 2% 1% 18% 6% 1%

MEN WOMEN

TOTAL MORE LIKELY TOTAL LESS LIKELY NO DIFFERENCE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 94% 87% Much More Likely 14% 69% Somewhat More Likely 11% Much Less Likely 56% 24% 13% 5% 2% 2% 4% Somewhat Less Likely 14% CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 49 Did Donald Trump’s influence make you more likely or less likely to vote for Republican candidates, or did his influence not make a difference in your decision? (Only asked to voters who said were influenced, 245n, +/- 6.26%) 4% Much More Likely 14% 1% 25% Somewhat More Likely 11% Much Less Likely 56% 70% Somewhat Less Likely 14%

TOTAL MORE LIKELY TOTAL LESS LIKELY NO DIFFERENCE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED

78% 75% 71% 63% 62%

37% 24% 22% 27% 2% 7% 16% 3% 2% 9% 2%

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 50

LOOKING AHEAD: 2020 ELECTION Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 51

Although it is a long way off, if the 2020 Presidential election were being held today, would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican candidate or the Democratic party’s candidate?

17% 1% 4%

23% 55% 66% 45% 28% 21% 17% 1% 12% 1% 5% 4% MEN WOMEN TOTAL DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE TOTAL TRUMP SOME OTHER CANDIDATE UNSURE UNDECIDED

REFUSED 88% 72% Definitely Democrat 36% 50% Probably Democrat 19% 19% 23% Definitely Trump 12% 14% 14% 2% 2% 3% 6% 7% Probably Trump 11% CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 52

Although it is a long way off, if the 2020 Presidential election were being held today, would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican candidate or the Democratic party’s candidate?

17% 1% Definitely Democrat 36% 4% Probably Democrat 19% 55% 23% Definitely Trump 12% Probably Trump 11%

TOTAL DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE TOTAL TRUMP SOME OTHER CANDIDATE UNSURE UNDECIDED REFUSED

61% 65% 48% 49% 51% 36% 27% 22% 24% 18% 18% 15% 16% 1% 11% 1% 1% 13% 1% 2% 4% 5% 8% 4% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 53

MEDIA HABITS Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 54 MEDIA HABITS

How many hours of live television do you Do you watch live television? watch a week? (Asked to those that watch live television)

3% 23% 14%

41% 36% 24% 59%

ZERO TO TWO THREE TO FIVE SIX TO TEN MORE THAN TEN HOURS YES NO UNSURE REFUSED Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 55 In general, how much trust and confidence do you have in the Colorado media, such as newspapers, television and radio, when it comes to reporting the news fully, accurately, and fairly? Do you have a…

5% 3% 19% 27% 50% 43% 32% 46% 22% 17% 21% 6% 2% 4% 4% MEN WOMEN

A GREAT DEAL A FAIR AMOUNT 56% 45% 45% NOT VERY MUCH NONE AT ALL 32% 27% 25% UNSURE REFUSED 20% 12% 14% 6% 4% 5% 3% 1% 3% CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 56 In general, how much trust and confidence do you have in the Colorado media, such as newspapers, television and radio, when it comes to reporting the news fully, accurately, and fairly? Do you have a… 5% 3%19% 27% 46%

A GREAT DEAL A FAIR AMOUNT NOT VERY MUCH NONE AT ALL UNSURE REFUSED

53% 51% 46% 42% 37% 31% 28% 31% 23% 24% 22% 20% 21% 15% 17% 9% 5% 3% 3% 4% 4% 2% 1% 4% 4% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Colorado 2018 Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters, 500n, +/-4.38, Nov. 2018 57 If a political campaign wanted you to see an ad, among the following options, which would be the most effective way for them to reach you?

22%

16% 16%

12% 9% 8% 7%

4% 4% 2%

A TELEVISION TRADITIONAL FACEBOOK A MAILER YOUTUBE A TWITTER INTERNET OTHER UNSURE AD AM FM DIRECT MAIL VOLUNTEER RADIO REFUSED RADIO KNOCKING PANDORA ON YOUR SPOTIFY DOOR 58

David Flaherty | Courtney Sievers

MAGELLAN STRATEGIES 1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 Louisville, CO 80027 303-861-8585 | www.MagellanStrategies.com