Reach the People You Need to Know. SOUTH AFRICAN CITIZENS SURVEY CORE REPORT – QUARTER 3 2018 TABLE of CONTENTS

Reach the people you need to know. SOUTH AFRICAN CITIZENS SURVEY CORE REPORT – QUARTER 3 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS

SECTION PAGE

Background and Sample 4

Key Findings 7

Direction of the Country and Economic Conditions 11

Political Parties and Key Leaders 14

Trust in Institutions 29

THE SURVEY THE SAMPLE

 Citizen Surveys has been carrying out the South African Citizens Survey  Designed as a complex, multi-stage stratified probability sample, based on (SACS) since July 2015. the Census EA sample frame.

 Face-to-face interviews are conducted on computer tablets with a  Sampling sites are chosen at random across all provinces and metro, nationally-representative sample of 1,300 South African adults (i.e. 18 urban and rural areas, with probability proportionate to population size, years of age and older) per month. based on the latest Stats SA estimates of the population aged 18+.

 Interviews are conducted in English, Zulu, Xhosa, Afrikaans, Sotho, Sepedi,  Results are reported quarterly on a total of 3,900 respondents, which and Setswana. produces results with a margin of error margin of error of ±1.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.  The SACS covers a range of current issues. Citizen Surveys invites researchers from universities and non-profit organizations to access the  Weights are applied to ensure the sample represents the most recent data free of charge – subject to usage conditions – by visiting our website national population with respect to province, race, gender, age, and area. (https://citizensurveys.net/sa-citizens-survey and clicking on Request Our Data), or contacting us on +27 (0)21 447 4484.

1,300 INTERVIEWS PER MONTH 3,900 INTERVIEWS PER QUARTER

 Citizen Surveys, founded in 1996, operates both nationally and internationally and has a broad selection of clients including international corporates, public institutions, government departments, academic institutions, NGOs, and development agencies.

 We specialize in research that has a social impact, and in large-scale national household surveys, continuous tracking studies, customer satisfaction surveys and segmentation modelling.

 Our robust, scientific methods and quality management systems deliver superior quality information and insights that can be trusted.

 Most of our business stems from repeat business and client recommendations.

 Some of our clients include:

 During Q3 of 2018, the proportion of South Africans who believed that the  The erosion of trust in state institutions and traditional leadership country is heading in the wrong direction grew from 55% to 65%. continues to grow.

 The proportion who believed that the country is heading in the right  Trust in the Electoral Commission continues to drop and now stands at direction dropped from 37% to 28%. 48%. Declining levels of trust in SARS, currently at 54%, go hand-in- hand with a decline in tax compliance and revenue collections.  Perceptions of a weaken economy and deteriorating personal living  Less than one-half of the South African adult population trusts critical conditions continued in Q3 of 2018. state institutions such as the Public Protector (47%) and the National  Only one-quarter (26%) of South African adults reported an Prosecuting Authority (46%), while only four-in-ten people trust the improvement in their personal living conditions. This indicator has South African Police (40%). declined since Q1 of 2018, where it stood at 28%.  Only one-third (35%) of the national adult population and just under  Similarly, only one-in-five (20%) believed the economy had improved one-half of the rural population trusts traditional leaders. over the past 12 months, a decline after several quarters of growth.  The decline in the credibility of the pillars of South African society, coupled  Many South Africans still remain hopeful about their personal futures, with the dynamics that are threatening to overshadow the achievements however, with about six-in-ten people (60%) saying they believe that their of our democracy, are more than just evidence of a worrying trend that livelihoods will improve over the next 12 months. does not bode well for the future of our country.  There is slightly-less optimism about the national economy’s prospects, with 52% of South Africans believing it will improve in the next 12 months.

 President Cyril Ramaphosa enjoyed job performance ratings of 68% in  Perceptions around to the state of the economy and the prospects of an April, May, and June. His ratings fell to 64% in July, and then to 61% in economic recovery contributed to the belief that the country is heading in August before growing slightly to 62% in September. the wrong direction.

 Comparatively-speaking, Cyril Ramaphosa ranked as the most  The biggest challenge for Ramaphosa is whether he will be able to popular political party leader polled over the past 12 months. manage this economic crisis and retain the public’s confidence into the Nonetheless, Q3 of 2018 saw a significant decrease in his favourability 2019 elections, as much more time may be needed to fix the deep-rooted rating, dropping by eight percentage points from 64% to 56%. problems that face him.

 Mmusi Maimane, the opposition DA leader, saw his favourability score  Of long-term significance in political leadership is the ascent of Julius remain at 31% (where it has plateaued over the past 12 months). The EFF Malema, a populist and a polarising figure in South Africa politics. Over leader Julius Malema’s popularity has dropped from 31% in the previous the past two years, his popularity ratings have almost doubled from 16% quarter to 29%. to 29%, while his impact on improving the EFF’s image increased from 22% to 39%.  In the current quarter, Maimane’s favourability ratings were only slightly higher than Malema’s, at 31% and 29% respectively.

 The Q3 of 2018 results reflect a decline in the support for the ANC from its  The proportion of adult South African’s who like the EFF also declined high-point (64%) of people who “liked” the party in the previous quarter. marginally from 31% to 29%, with a preference score of around the 11% mark, almost neck-on-neck with the DA.  The proportion of citizens who feel close to the ANC has dropped from 38% (14-million adults) to 35% (12.9-million adults). By the same token,  The EFF has not suffered the same setback as the DA, however, largely those who like the ANC dropped from 64% to 58%, while those who prefer due to the EFF having a relatively-stable core constituency – mainly young the ANC dropped from 47% to 43%. and urbanised Black men – in contrast to the DA’s diverse and multi-racial constituency base.  The ANC has still benefitted from Cyril Ramaphosa being at the helm of the party and the country. Over the past year, support and preference for the  The number of citizens who feel close to the EFF increased in Q3 of 2018 ANC has seen a net growth from 42% to 58% and from 36% to 43%, to 7% (2.6-million adults), up from 5% (2-million adults) in Q2. respectively.  This increase in EFF support is largely due to its growth in Black  Those South Africans who feel close to the DA have declined slightly since supporters in the 18-24 and 35-44 age categories in Gauteng, Limpopo, Q1 of 2018, from 8% to 7%. This is likely the result of the DA’s internal and the Eastern Cape. Furthermore, the EFF’s support base is not confined conflicts and the ANC and EFF opposition it faces in the metros it holds. to the poorest of the poor – instead, the EFF also registered growth in the higher income segments.  The proportion of adult South Africans who like the DA has remained largely stable until this quarter, where it decreased from 34% in Q2 to 30% in Q3, while those who prefer the DA remained at a low of 12%.

 South Africa went into a technical recession during Q3 of 2018, and the initial bout of optimism – the result of Cyril Ramaphosa taking the helm of the country – has begun to wane.

 During the first two quarters of 2018, the perception that the country is heading in the right direction grew from 19% in Q2 of 2017 to 37% in Q2 of 2018. A year ago (Q2 of 2017), three-quarters of South Africans believed the country was off on the wrong track.

 While the perception of the country heading in the right direction has grown steadily over the past year, Q3 of 2018 saw a noticeable decline, from 37% to 28%.

COUNTRY HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION OR WRONG DIRECTION

75% 68% 70% 70% 64% 65% 56% 55% 51% 53% 52% 49% 

41% 39% 38% 37% 36% 34% 34% 29% 28% 23% 23%  19%

Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG DIRECTION

 We asked South Africans whether they believed the economy and their THE ECONOMY AND MY PERSONAL LIVING CONDITIONS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS personal living conditions had improved or deteriorated over the past year.

 Only one-in-five South Africans (20%) thought that the economy had 29% 31% 28% 28% improved, while about one-in-four (26%) said their personal living 26% 25% 23% 25% 26% 26%

conditions had improved. 21% 24% 24% 25% 22% 19% 19% 20% 21% 20%  Despite a slight but steady decline in optimism from Q1 of 2018, more Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 than half of South Africans (60%) still hold the belief that their personal living conditions will improve over the next 12 months. THE ECONOMY AND MY PERSONAL LIVING CONDITIONS  They do appear to be less optimistic about the economy improving, WILL IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS

however, steadily dropping from 61% in Q1 to 52% in Q3 of 2018. 67% 57% 62% 60% 47% 54% 48% 45% 45% 41% 61% 58% 52% 42% 46% 36% 42% 35% 36% 34%

Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

PERSONAL LIVING CONDITIONS ECONOMY

 The President of South Africa’s job approval rating jumped to 64% when Cyril Ramaphosa took the helm in March 2018, and has since maintained monthly highs of 68% in Q2 of 2018 (April, May and June). In July and August, we see the President’s job approval rating dropping to 64% and then 61%, before growing slightly to 62% in September.

THE PRESIDENT IS DOING HIS JOB WELL / VERY WELL

68% 68% 68% 64% 64% 61% 62%

41% 41% 39% 40% 40% 39% 37% 35% 36% 36% 33% 35% 33% 33% 32% 33% 30% 27% 24% 25% 24% 22% 23% 23% 22% 22%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018

 While Cyril Ramaphosa still ranked as the most popular political party leader polled in Q3 of 2018, his favourability rating dropped from 64% in the previous quarter to 56%.

 Mmusi Maimane’s favourability score stood at 31% (having plateaued over the past 12 months), while Julius Malema’s popularity score dropped from 31% in the previous quarter to 29%.

 Maimane enjoyed the highest favourability rating of all major political party leaders for three quarters (from Q4 of 2016 to Q2 of 2017). However, from Q3 of 2017 onwards, his favourability ratings started to decline. In the current quarter, Maimane narrowly beat Malema, with favourability ratings of 31% and 29% respectively.

FAVOURABLE VIEW OF POLITICAL LEADERS 64% 60% 56%

47% 44% 38% 37% 35% 35% 35% 37% 31% 33% 32% 32% 31% 31% 29% 35% 35% 34% 34% 34% 28% 26% 29% 30% 30% 31% 27% 28% 22% 29% 25% 21% 22% 22% 25% 25% 20% 19% 16%

Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

JACOB ZUMA CYRIL RAMAPHOSA MMUSI MAIMANE JULIUS MALEMA

 We use three measures to gauge political party affinity: feeling close to a FEEL CLOSE TO THE PARTY

party (partisanship), likeability, and preference. The strength of likeability 39% 38% 35% is rated on a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means you strongly dislike that 8% party and 10 means that you strongly like that party. ‘Like the party’ is 7% 7%

calculated as those who score the party as 6 or higher. ‘Prefer the party 5% 5% 7% Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 above others’ is calculated as the party which obtains the highest rating in relation to the other political parties. LIKE THE PARTY 61% 58% 64% 58%  There was a drop in the proportion of South African adults who said they 50% 52% 53% 42% 43% 34% feel close to the ANC, from 38% in Q2 to 35% in Q3. The partisanship level 32% 34% 30% 29% 29% 32% 32% 31% for the DA remained stable at 7%, while the EFF grew from 5% to 7%. 31% 29% 20% 23% 23%  The likeability rating of the ANC increased from a low of 42% in Q3 of 2017 18% 16% 15% 19% Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 to a high of 64% in Q2 of 2018. It dropped to 58% in the current quarter. The DA also saw a decrease from 34% down to 30%, with the EFF also PREFER THE PARTY ABOVE OTHERS

declining from 31% to 29%. 54% 50% 44% 45% 44% 47% 43% 36% 37%  Those who prefer the ANC above all other parties decreased from 47% in 18% 18% 12% 12% 20% 21% 19% 19% 16% Q2 of 2018 to 43% in Q3 of 2018. The DA remained stable at 12%, while 7% 7% 8% 12% 9% 11% 9% the EFF improved their position to 11%. 9% 11% Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

 The ANC has seen a slow but steady decline in their partisanship, FEEL CLOSE TO THE PARTY favourability, and preference scores over the past two quarters. 39% 38% 35%  The proportion of South African adults who feel close to the party 34% declined from 39% (14.4-million adults) in Q1 of 2018 to 35% (13-million Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 adults) in the current quarter. LIKE THE PARTY 61% 58% 50% 52% 53% 64% 58%  While the likeability rating of the ANC was at a 12-month high of 64% in 42% 43% the previous quarter, it dropped back to 58% in Q3 of 2018. 58% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018  By the same token, those who prefer the ANC above all other political

parties declined somewhat from 47% in Q2 to 43% in Q3. PREFER THE PARTY  A combined measure of those who both like the ANC and prefer the ANC 54% 50% 44% 45% 36% 37% 44% 47% 43% above all other political parties also registered a marginal decrease from 43% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 44% to 40% in Q3 2018. 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018

 What follows are demographic profiles for Q3 and Q2 of 2018 of those LIKE & PREFER THE PARTY

who feel close to the ANC, which allows us to see where changes have 51% 48% 41% 43% 32% 33% 40% 44% 40% occurred. We observe a drop in support of just over 1-million Black adults, 40% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 mainly poor, in the 25-34 and 35-49 age groups. Support declined in the 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 Metro areas, with the largest drop occurring in Gauteng.

POPULATION GROUP LIVING STANDARDS MEASURE TOTAL SOUTH AFRICANS LM BLACK 10 67,000 (1%) 12.95-million GT 12,325,000 (95%) 1,790,000 (14%) 3,340,000 (26%) 09 384,000 (3%) COLOURED 35% 425,000 (3%) 08 595,000 (5%) MP INDIAN NW 1,012,000 (8%) 1,468,000 (11%) 97,000 (1%) 07 975,000 (8%) 3,887,000 (30%) WHITE 06 101,000 (1%) FS KZ 3,638,000 (28%) 05 NC 701,000 (5%) 2,283,000 (18%) 236,000 (2%) AGE GROUP 04 1,867,000 (14%)

18-24 1,995,000 (15%) 03 733,000 (6%) EC 02 286,000 (2%) 25-34 3,400,000 (26%) 2,068,000 (16%) WC 01 21,000 (0%) GEOTYPE 544,000 (4%) METRO 35-44 2,742,000 (21%) 4,105,000 (32%) GENDER

FEMALE URBAN 45-54 2,275,000 (18%) 7,025,000 (54%) 2,958,000 (23%)

MALE RURAL 55+ 2,536,000 (20%) 5,923,000 (46%) 5,886,000 (45%)

POPULATION GROUP LIVING STANDARDS MEASURE TOTAL SOUTH AFRICANS LM BLACK 10 58,000 (0%) 14.12-million GT 13,469,000 (95%) 1,927,000 (14%) 3,944,000 (28%) 09 293,000 (2%) COLOURED 38% 472,000 (3%) 08 536,000 (4%) MP INDIAN NW 1,384,000 (10%) 1,542,000 (11%) 105,000 (1%) 07 966,000 (7%) 4,489,000 (32%) WHITE 06 77,000 (1%) FS KZ 3,288,000 (23%) 05 NC 626,000 (4%) 2,423,000 (17%) 335,000 (2%) AGE GROUP 04 2,200,000 (16%)

18-24 1,808,000 (13%) 03 1,149,000 (8%) EC 02 486,000 (3%) 25-34 4,225,000 (30%) 1,885,000 (13%) WC 01 83,000 (1%) GEOTYPE 634,000 (4%) METRO 35-44 3,255,000 (23%) 4,739,000 (34%) GENDER

FEMALE URBAN 45-54 2,151,000 (15%) 7,720,000 (55%) 3,447,000 (24%)

MALE RURAL 55+ 2,685,000 (19%) 6,404,000 (45%) 5,938,000 (42%)

 The proportion of South Africans who feel close to the DA remained stable FEEL CLOSE TO THE PARTY at 7% (2.6-million adults). Those who liked the party decreased from 34% 8% 7% 7% to 30% over the past quarter, however. 7%  The DA’s racially-diverse support base served as a unifying factor against Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 the Zuma administration. In post-Zuma politics, the diverse interests of its LIKE THE PARTY constituencies manifested in the internal struggles that have pervaded 32% 34% 29% 29% 32% 32% 31% 34% 30% and undermined the party.

30% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3  The decline in the preference for the DA is evident over the past year, 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 dropping from highs of around 19% in 2017 to 12% in the current quarter. PREFER THE PARTY Similarly, the combined measure of like and prefer the DA has declined 20% 21% 18% 18% 19% 19% 16% over time from 18% (in Q4 of 2017) to 10%. 12% 12%

 Nonetheless, while 2.6-million adults feel close to the DA, the party also 12% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 benefits from an anti-ANC and an anti-EFF vote, generally boosting its performance at the polls. LIKE & PREFER THE PARTY

18% 20% 17% 16% 17% 18% 14% 11% 10%

10% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018

POPULATION GROUP LIVING STANDARDS MEASURE TOTAL SOUTH AFRICANS

BLACK LM 10 451,000 (18%) 2.57-million GT 848,000 (33%) 95,000 (4%) 640,000 (25%) 09 277,000 (11%) COLOURED 7% 907,000 (35%) 08 234,000 (9%) MP INDIAN NW 176,000 (7%) 82,000 (3%) 07 296,000 (12%) 149,000 (6%)

WHITE 06 849,000 (33%) 729,000 (28%) FS KZ 05 260,000 (10%) NC 78,000 (3%) 137,000 (5%) 111,000 (4%) AGE GROUP 04 133,000 (5%)

18-24 457,000 (18%) 03 58,000 (2%) EC 02 8,000 (0%) 25-34 618,000 (24%) 245,000 (10%) 01 WC GEOTYPE 935,000 (36%) METRO 35-44 425,000 (17%) 1,349,000 (53%) GENDER

FEMALE URBAN 45-54 408,000 (16%) 1,191,000 (46%) 767,000 (30%)

MALE RURAL 55+ 658,000 (26%) 1,376,000 (54%) 450,000 (18%)

POPULATION GROUP LIVING STANDARDS MEASURE TOTAL SOUTH AFRICANS

BLACK LM 10 272,000 (11%) 2.57-million GT 860,000 (33%) 153,000 (6%) 573,000 (22%) 09 422,000 (16%) COLOURED 7% 907,000 (35%) 08 235,000 (9%) MP INDIAN NW 164,000 (6%) 135,000 (5%) 07 318,000 (12%) 147,000 (6%)

WHITE 06 720,000 (28%) 670,000 (26%) FS KZ 05 366,000 (14%) NC 66,000 (3%) 193,000 (8%) 122,000 (5%) AGE GROUP 04 195,000 (8%)

18-24 420,000 (16%) 03 40,000 (2%) EC 02 3,000 (0%) 25-34 543,000 (21%) 298,000 (12%) 01 WC GEOTYPE 856,000 (33%) METRO 35-44 596,000 (23%) 1,349,000 (52%) GENDER

FEMALE URBAN 45-54 428,000 (17%) 1,272,000 (49%) 807,000 (31%)

MALE RURAL 55+ 585,000 (23%) 1,300,000 (51%) 416,000 (16%)

 Between 2016 and 2017, Mmusi Maimane’s performance score with respect to improving the image of the DA soared from 37% to 53%. Since LEADER IS IMPROVING THE PARTY'S IMAGE AMONGST VOTERS the beginning of 2018, however, it declined to 41%, before seeing a slight 51% 53% 46% 46% 47% 47% 46% growth to its current level of 43%. 41% 41% 43% 37%  In contrast, Maimane’s own favourability ratings have remained relatively 43% flat over the past year, at around 31%. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018

LEADER’S FAVOURABILITY RATING

37% 34% 35% 37% 31% 33% 32% 32% 31% 28% 31% 27% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018

 The EFF has steadily been increasing in popularity since we started to FEEL CLOSE TO THE PARTY measure the likeability of the party in Q3 of 2015. 5% 5% 7%  The proportion of South African adults who feel close to the EFF increased 7% from 5% (2-million adults) in Q2 of 2018 to 7% (2.6-million adults) in this Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 current quarter. LIKE THE PARTY

 There is a large gap between those who like the EFF (29%) and those who 18% 16% 15% 19% 20% 23% 23% 31% 29% prefer it to the other political parties (roughly 10% over the past four 29% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 quarters). This disparity is different for the EFF – in contrast to the DA – 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 since the EFF has a relatively stable core constituency: primarily young and PREFER THE PARTY urbanised Black men, in contrast to the DA’s diverse and multi-racial 7% 7% 8% 12% 9% 11% 9% 9% 11% constituency.

 The growth in support for the EFF is largely due to a growth in this core 11% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 constituency, especially in the 18-24 and 35-44 age categories in Gauteng, Limpopo, and the Eastern Cape. The EFF’s support base is not confined to LIKE & PREFER THE PARTY the poorest of the poor; instead, the EFF also saw growth in the higher 7% 7% 7% 11% 8% 10% 8% 9% 10% income segments or Living Standard Measures (LSM). 10% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018

POPULATION GROUP LIVING STANDARDS MEASURE TOTAL SOUTH AFRICANS

BLACK LM 10 4,000 (0%) 2.56-million GT 2,474,000 (97%) 344,000 (13%) 1,104,000 (43%) 09 163,000 (6%) COLOURED 7% 69,000 (3%) 08 200,000 (8%) MP INDIAN NW 141,000 (6%) 4,000 (0%) 07 397,000 (16%) 172,000 (7%)

WHITE 06 891,000 (35%) 11,000 (0%) FS KZ 05 565,000 (22%) NC 149,000 (6%) 152,000 (6%) 70,000 (3%) AGE GROUP 04 142,000 (6%)

18-24 784,000 (31%) 03 84,000 (3%) EC 02 112,000 (4%) 25-34 987,000 (39%) 310,000 (12%) 01 WC GEOTYPE 115,000 (5%) METRO 35-44 432,000 (17%) GENDER 1,222,000 (48%)

FEMALE URBAN 45-54 167,000 (7%) 966,000 (38%) 625,000 (24%)

MALE RURAL 55+ 187,000 (7%) 1,591,000 (62%) 710,000 (28%)

POPULATION GROUP LIVING STANDARDS MEASURE TOTAL SOUTH AFRICANS

BLACK LM 10 2,000 (0%) 2.00-million GT 1,944,000 (97%) 215,000 (11%) 913,000 (46%) 09 COLOURED 5% 46,000 (2%) 08 173,000 (9%) MP INDIAN NW 94,000 (5%) 4,000 (0%) 07 354,000 (18%) 171,000 (9%)

WHITE 06 816,000 (41%) 7,000 (0%) FS KZ 05 335,000 (17%) NC 145,000 (7%) 189,000 (9%) 13,000 (1%) AGE GROUP 04 149,000 (7%)

18-24 560,000 (28%) 03 EC 02 32,000 (2%) 25-34 949,000 (47%) 191,000 (10%) 01 WC GEOTYPE 68,000 (3%) METRO 35-44 279,000 (14%) GENDER 1,104,000 (55%)

FEMALE URBAN 45-54 109,000 (5%) 619,000 (31%) 346,000 (17%)

MALE RURAL 55+ 105,000 (5%) 1,382,000 (69%) 551,000 (28%)

 Julius Malema’s efforts at boosting his image and that of the EFF has resulted in considerable growth, from 22% in Q1 of 2016 – when we first LEADER IS IMPROVING THE PARTY'S IMAGE AMONGST VOTERS measured the impact of the leader on the image of the party – to 39% at 40% 39% 35% 36% 37% present. 30% 28% 27% 29% 28% 22%  Malema’s growing favourability score is significant, owing to this score 39% nearly doubling from a base of 16% in Q1 of 2016 to 29% in Q3 of 2018. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2017

LEADER’S FAVOURABILITY RATING

31% 29% 25% 25% 25% 21% 20% 22% 19% 22% 16% 29% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2017

RELIGIOUS LEADERS TRADITIONAL LEADERS

Over the past two years, there has been a slow-but-steady decline in trust in Trust in traditional leadership follows a similar trend to religious leadership, religious leadership in general, despite the slight growth during this quarter. although from a lower starting level of 46%. While the decline in trust is 58% evident across the provinces and within the rural areas, trust in traditional 64% 64% 66% 61% 58% 58% 56% 58% leadership is slightly higher in rural areas. 35% 46% 47% 45% 45% 44% 42% 35% 35% Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 INDEPENDENT ELECTORAL COMMISSION

In Q3 of 2018, trust in the IEC dropped to an all-time low of 48% from the highs of 67% that it boasted after the 2016 local government elections.

48%

67% 62% 62% 57% 54% 54% 49% 48%

Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

PUBLIC PROTECTOR NATIONAL PROSECUTING AUTHORITY

Busisiwe Mkhwebane was appointed by President Zuma in October 2016. The reputation and credibility of the NPA has been severely undermined Trust in the Public Protector’s office has since declined to just 47% at present. under the directorship of Shaun Abrahams, who was appointed by President Zuma in June 2015. Public trust in the NPA is now at just 46%. 69% 66% 64% 47% 57% 57% 58% 51% 47% 61% 61% 59% 46% 53% 53% 52% 50% 46%

Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 CONSTITUTIONAL COURT

Trust in the Constitutional Court remained relatively stable until Q1 of 2018, and has since declined to 56% in this quarter. 56%

70% 68% 65% 65% 65% 66% 58% 56%

Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

SOUTH AFRICAN POLICE SERVICE SOUTH AFRICAN NATIONAL DEFENCE FORCE

While trust in SAPS has been declining steadily since we started the More citizens trust the military than the police services. At its height two measurement in Q4 of 2016, the most significant drop has been over the years ago, almost three-quarters of the public said that they trusted the past year, to a current low of 40%. SANDF. Trust has steadily declined since then, to just 52% in this quarter. 40% 69% 72% 72% 69% 68% 56% 54% 66% 52% 52% 50% 50% 51% 57% 44% 52% 40%  Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

SOUTH AFRICAN REVENUE SERVICE SOUTH AFRICAN BROADCASTING CORPORATION

Trust in SARS declined marginally during 2017, but has declined more Despite the spate of financial mismanagement, corruption, and state capture noticeably since Q1 of 2018 to its current level of 54%. This is most likely due allegations, just under two-thirds of South Africans still trust the SABC. to the continuing revelations of mismanagement and state capture at SARS. 63% 68% 54% 65% 64% 67% 66% 65% 64% 63% 64% 62% 64% 62% 60% 62% 55% 54%

Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018