geographical and seasonal supply 33 percent of the population in developing Revealing the Face of variations in some regions. Here, a potential countries—live in regions that will experience water crisis can hide behind a national severe water scarcity. In the next 25 years, average that shows a stable water supply some one billion people living in arid and An important component of IWMI’s scientific situation. semiarid regions will face absolute water activity is its ‘strategic generic research’ on water Barker and Research Statistician, Dr. Upali The strength of this study is that it scarcity. management, food security and poverty issues. Amarasinghe, shows a clear picture of the documents the scope and severity of the Data presented by this research reveals These findings support governments in their policy world’s water-scarcity issues. It projects water potential water crisis and highlights the that the groundwater table is falling at an causes. When fully developed, this work will decisions and set the agenda for the Institute’s supply and demand patterns across 118 alarming rate in the semiarid regions of the be a prime source of information to support applied research work. With its recently completed countries and pinpoints countries and entire Middle East and in Asia, the home of some of the policy changes that the affected Global Water Scarcity Study, IWMI gives the world regions in the developing world where water the world’s major breadbaskets. governments must take to address their a new picture of water scarcity and its causes, and will no longer be available in 2025, or where IWMI defines water scarcity as those areas available will not be water-scarcity crises. Over the coming year, pinpoints areas where urgent action is needed. of the world that, by 2025, will not have developed due to other constraints—such as the IWMI research team will work to deepen sufficient water to maintain their1990 levels lack of funds or environmental pressures. its knowledge of water scarcity, by gathering of per capita food production from irrigated IWMI’s work picks up where well-known and analyzing more detailed country and . Water-scarce areas will not be water-scarcity benchmarks, like the UN regional data and contrasting this with grain able to meet reasonable water needs for The scenario that nearly 1 billion people may Commission on Sustainable Development or production figures. This will form a global domestic, industrial, and environmental not have access to water by the year 2025 is Falkenmark, Lundqvist, and Widstrand (1989) water scarcity/food security picture. purposes. Scarcity of water will create an The IWMI Water now a generally accepted global challenge. A conclude. IWMI completes the work of these intense competition among different users, The scope of scarcity: Scarcity Study reveals less-known fact is that IWMI’s Global Water models, by developing a picture of future with all the associated political and national that, by 2025: ‘Business-as-usual’ water use is Scarcity Study has helped define this problem water scarcity. security implications that this will bring. not an option more precisely. The study gives a new factual IWMI offers a new view by considering the In the struggle for water, it is the poorest · Some 25 percent of the basis to the worldwide policy discussion on importance of the various competing water The message from this study is clear: Unless of the poor—the primary social group world’s population—or 33 percent of the water management and its impact on food users—domestic, , industrial—and the countries that will experience water scarcity targeted by IWMI’s research—that will be left population in developing security. the fact that the overall demand for water is act today to manage their water resources without options. If governments in the countries—live in regions This research, by IWMI’s Director General, continually changing, and therefore difficult more productively, they will face a series of affected countries maintain today’s ‘business- that will experience severe water scarcity Dr. David Seckler, Senior Advisor, Dr. Randolph to predict. It looks at the importance of impossible decisions when the crisis hits. The as-usual’ scenario for water use, by 2025, (Group I). Some one inhabitants of these regions will have no choice millions of the world’s poorest people will billion of the world’s poorest people will be but to reduce the amount of water they use in simply see their water disappear, as it is affected. agriculture and transfer it to competing diverted for use—by wealthier or politically · One-third of the users—in the industrial, domestic, or connected users. populations of India (280 environmental sectors. For the poorest The study pinpoints two types of water million people) and China countries, this shift will be catastrophic. Less scarcity—absolute and economic. Countries (381 million people) live in regions that will face water in the fields means decreased domestic and regions faced with absolute scarcity will absolute water scarcity. food production and a requirement to import see their groundwater aquifers depleted. · The rest of the 118 more food at world-market prices. Economic water scarcity will hit countries countries included in the More work is needed before the IWMI that have sufficient water to meet user study, theoretically, have sufficient water resources water scarcity methodology can be used as a demand, but lack the funds to develop the to meet their 2025 needs. planning tool. But the study’s value today is necessary dams or canals to tap the resource. But many of these that it identifies a series of national and Seckler, Barker, and Amarasinghe predict that countries will need to produce more than twice regional disparities in water resources that economic scarcity alone will hit some 348 their existing water were not previously known. It also establishes million people across and Asia if supplies (Subgroup 1). a clear link between water scarcity and food current water consumption patterns continue This means embarking on large and expensive security. This is a problem that researchers unchecked. water-development and policy makers with a crop focus have not projects, which many will previously considered as a high priority. not be able to finance. The study examines the available Irrigation: Efficiency alone will · Countries such as Latin America, North Africa, economic, demographic, and agricultural data not solve the problem and East Asia will need to from 118 countries over the 1990–2025 Irrigation holds a special place in the water- increase water period. It concludes that more than 25 development by 25–100 scarcity debate, as it uses more than 70 percent (Subgroup 2), but percent of the world’s population—or percent of the world’s total water supply— many do not have the and up to 90 percent in some developing means.

4 5 countries. Any reduction in overall water that the financial and environmental costs of supply means a reduction in irrigation, which developing their water resources are translates into less agricultural production. prohibitive. Increased crop yields are slower evident solutions. This contamination makes The lack of a realistic view of the situation on the more marginal rain-fed lands than on plentiful water supplies unfit for drinking, by some policy makers is one of the danger irrigated lands. So IWMI’s view is quite the agricultural, or environmental purposes. IWMI areas surrounding the water scarcity picture, opposite. Proportionally more irrigation will has several parallel research projects looking The Human Face this research shows. It says that many of them be needed to meet future food demands, at these issues. of Water Scarcity do not see water scarcity as an urgent than was needed in the past. Salinity in soil and water has already problem; they think that efficient irrigation reached crisis proportions in some countries · Behind the figures alone will cure their potential water shortage. The groundwater paradox today. Pakistan is one example. Its water table presented by the IWMI Here, the researchers raise a warning flag. Water Scarcity Study lies One of the strongest statements to emerge is cursed with high salinity, a situation that is a human tragedy that the The research shows why this thinking from this research is this team’s belief that the complicated by a lack of natural drainage lack of water has forced could have dangerous consequences. Many upon millions of poor combined depletion and pollution of from the agricultural areas of the Indus basin, people believe that existing irrigation people. groundwater will be the single greatest except the Indus river itself. As salinity and systems are so inefficient that most, or even · Some have to carry heavy water-resources problem in the coming 30 other pollutants enter the river upstream, all, future water needs could be met simply pots of water several years. This research team feels that the downstream users become progressively kilometers everyday to by increasing the efficiency of irrigation and problem does not receive the attention it affected by pollution. Downstream crop meet household needs. transferring the water saved to domestic, Farmers lose their land should—from water experts, government productivity decreases and water becomes and livelihood because industrial, and environmental uses. The IWMI policy makers, and the international unusable. they lack enough research shows a very different picture. organizations that fund development and While the IWMI Water Scarcity Study is not irrigation water to flush In addition to the fact that irrigation salts from the soil. research work. yet the benchmark that its creators say it Wetlands and river efficiency gains may be lower than projected, Rapid groundwater depletion is a should be, they feel that credibility and estuaries dry and crack the IWMI research tests two common because of upstream consequence of the explosive spread of small recognition will come as the impact of their assumptions, to show how governments can water depletion. pump irrigation throughout the developing analysis spreads. In the coming months the easily underestimate the severity of the · Most of the poorest world. India, for example, has more area study will be used as the basis for discussion problem. people in developing irrigated by these low-cost methods than by in several international policy meetings, and countries today are First, it examines the conventional view all other surface irrigation systems combined. as scientific input to the World Water Vision forced to drink water that that no additional irrigated area or irrigation is unfit for human Ironically, it is precisely this low-tech, high- planned for 2000 in the Hague. Some of the consumption. They suffer water will be needed to meet the 2025 per IWMI’s water efficiency irrigation that is sucking aquifers data and findings of this work will serve as from skin problems and capita food demands. This belief assumes that other sanitary diseases dry today in many highly productive the factual foundation—notably on scarcity supply/demand all increased food consumption will be met due to polluted water agricultural regions. predictions and groundwater—for this inter- used for bathing and from increased yields—due to better seeds, research defines In some Indian regions, water is being ministerial discussion. The study’s dataset is insufficient water for fertilizers, and agricultural management. washing. extracted from aquifers at two-to-three times also being refined and expanded to include But this may not be the case at all. There the scope of the recharge rate. Some aquifers are currently more complete country and regional data. are signs that yields of major cereals are water scarcity being depleted by one-to-three meters per Interestingly, the most striking fact this stagnating in many of the most productive year. The increased energy costs for deeper study brings to light is a practical, not areas of the world. Urbanization is also eating and potential pump irrigation severely endanger the technical, revelation. David Seckler believes up much of the existing irrigated area. This freshwater supply to villages and causes lakes that there is a lack of specialized knowledge crisis areas in problem is further compounded by and rivers to dry up. about groundwater and a low awareness of diversions of water away from agriculture and the developing Eventually, the costs of pumping become the importance of water resources the increased salt content in water and soil, so high that the pumps are shut down and management as a technical and policy issue world by 2025. which make land useless for farming. The the whole house of cards collapses. Under that must be followed closely. study says that, if these trends continue, more To avoid a this scenario, the study says it is not difficult The study highlights the “…truly alarming irrigated area and water will definitely be to imagine how India could lose 25 percent threat of groundwater depletion in the world” potentially required. or more of its total crop production. and says that it is worrying how little The second assumption tested by the catastrophic attention it receives—both in research and water-scarcity study is that the proportion of action. While most professionals involved in situation in the food supplied by irrigated and rain-fed areas water—research, fieldwork, or in the donor will remain constant. But data gathered by near future, Scarcity is more than drought community—are trained to manage surface IWMI shows that most of the good rain-fed water, groundwater is literally hidden from research must areas in the world are already being used, or Water scarcity is more than the decreasing availability of this resource. This research their view and attention, says the IWMI Water intensify and pinpoints the rise of pollution and salinity in Scarcity Study. It warns that the time is long water as other pressing issues—with no past for this dangerous situation to change. policy decisions need to progress—today. 6 7