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View the Summary (PDF) New Year’s Eve: Have a happy and safe New Year’s Eve. Might I encourage everyone on New Year’s Day to set some goals for the New Year (if not tonight) and make some resolutions. Be certain to review (or create) your Will. Is it accurate? Be certain to review retirement accounts for allocation and beneficiary change(s). Are you comfortable with current allocations and choices? Be certain to review (or create) Powers of Attorney, i.e. Financial and Medical. Are these updated? Create (or update) a complete home inventory list (I am creating a database that I will share to capture this data) and review insurance coverage(s). Are they sufficient? Create an annual budget by month and stress test your model. What happens if I or my wife are no longer employed? Review your short- and long-term disability and care policies. Do you even have any? Review life insurance. Is it sufficient? Have you had a life change that means the amount must be changed? Finally, forecast what life looks like at age 65 and assume that you earn zero active income, i.e. must live on investments. Do you have sufficient income? If not, what can you do today to change your future? One can never think to soon of end-of-life issues and retirement. If you are young you have time. If you are holder, hopefully, you have income and assets. Plan to succeed! I thank everyone for allowing me to be a part of your lives! Happy New Year!!! Roger 31 December 2016 Question: What does the song Auld Lang Syne mean? Dollar forecast to hit euro parity as experts factor in US rates and Trump – Pg. 1 - The euro is on course to hit parity with the dollar for the first time in more than 14 years, helping the Eurozone maintain its recovery by making exports more competitive… - The single currency traded at $1.05 yesterday – far below its 2008 peak of $1.5979. It has not fallen to $1 or below since December 2002, the year euro notes and coins were introduced (Prof Note: I celebrated New Years that year in Lisbon. The fireworks were mis- aimed and ended up falling on the crowd by the harbor. Ahhhh….youth!) - The single currency lost 4% against the dollar in 2016, with market participants expecting further weakness as US rates rise. Lovers’ trysts bring French luxury hotels a rendezvous with success – Pg. 8 - Traditionally, room rental by the hour has been the preserve of seedy establishments or, more recently, “love hotels” found in countries from Argentina to Japan. But luxury hotel groups have embraced the hourly model in France - Hotel chains, including Accor and Marriott, have signed up to a French start-up online booking platform called Dayuse.com, … - According to Dayuse, which launched in 2010, 70% of rooms are empty during the day and it says it has generated more than $20m in revenue for those hotels signed up to its service - On the site customers can, for example, rent and 800euro-a-night room at the four-star Marriott Opera Ambassador in central Paris for 99euro between 11am and 4pm. To have a “love Box” filled with adult toys is an extra 40euro and a bottle of champagne 70 euro Top US shares set for strong recovery – Pg. 11 - The S&P 500 index is poised for an 11% gain in 2016, reflecting a wider rebound in global stock indices after a brutal start to the year that at one point sliced more than $5.1tn off the FTSE-All-World index - Investors are also increasingly hopeful that the stronger economic backdrop will allow the Federal Reserve to continue normalizing monetary policy after holding rates near historic lows since the financial crisis Answer: Just forget about the past and look ahead to the New Year with hope. 30 December 2016 Question: What is the first country to celebrate New Years Eve each year? Flurry of big deals fires M&A to second highest level since 2007 – Pg. 1 - Merger and acquisition activity in the fourth quarter reached $1.2tn, the busiest period for dealmaking in 2016. A slowdown in Chinese acquisitions in earlier quarters was offset by the year’s largest deal in October: AT&T’s agreed purchase of media group Time Warner for $108bn, including debt - In total, the volume of global M&A was $3.6tn in 2016, a 17% drop from last year’s record $4.37tn but enough to make the year the second highest for dealmaking since 2007,…. - Chinese companies became a significant force in cross-border M&A in 2016, accounting for $220bn of transactions – almost double the amount of 2015 House price rises in China’s capital will be halted, vows mayor – Pg. 2 - Flatlining prices will delight residents paying the world’s most unaffordable rents, but dismay investors who had bought houses in a city where prices have risen more than 25% this year - Since September, more than 20 city governments have tried to suppress housing demand by restricting house purchase and increasing the minimum downpayment required for mortgages. Property developers have been banned from borrowing to buy land - As a result, residential house price increases in Beijing and other top-tier cities slowed almost to a standstill in November Forecasting the world in 2017 – Pg. 13 - But we got the big ones wrong [for 2016 predications]. The UK did not vote to remain in the EU, Hillary Clinton did not win, and that is what mattered most - Will Article 50 be triggered by the end of the first quarter? (yes) - Will Marine Le Pen win the French presidency? (no) - Will Angela Merkel win re-election in Germany? (yes) - Will the Iran nuclear deal collapse? (no) - Will Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin do a Syria deal? (yes) - Will President Trump build the Mexican border wall? (yes – but not much of it) - Will Isis be destroyed as a significant global force? (no) - Will North Korea successfully test a nuclear-capable missile? (no) - Will China allow its currency to devalue by more than 10%? (no) - Will Venezuela default on its debt? (no) - Will the UK’s annual growth rate fall below 1% in 2017? (no) - Will the Fed funds rate be higher than 1.5% at the end of 2017? (no) - Will the S&P 500 finish the year above 2300 (roughly its current level)? (no) - Will oil finish over $50? (yes) - Will EU inflation be 1.5% or higher by year end? (no) - Will Apple be the most valuable company in the world at year end 2017? (yes) - Will Uber go public? (no) - Will either Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein or JPMorgan Chase chief Jamie Dimon step down in 2017? (no) - Will a major European bank fail in 2017? (yes) Mutual funds suffer investors’ ire – Pg. 15 - The number of mutual funds launched in the US fell sharply in 2016, reflecting the crisis of confidence in active management and the shift by investors into exchange traded funds - As a result, the number of US mutual funds is on course to fall in 2016 for only the fourth time in the past 20 years. From 8,190 funds at the start of the year, …recorded just 8,061 at the end of November - The industry has previously only shrunk after large stock market sell-offs but the reduced interest this year comes even as investors have enjoyed decent returns from stocks and bonds - The difference this time is that investors have absorbed years of data showing that most active managers fail to keep up with the passive, index-tracking funds that are more commonly available in ETF form US mortgage business run set to end – Pg. 16 - US mortgage lenders are heading for the quietest year for refinancings since 2000 as rising interest rates are expected to turn some borrowers off deals, hitting what has been an important source of revenue for the industry - American homeowners have rushed to take advantage of the drop in interest rates to historic lows through refinancings, which allow them to lock in cheaper mortgages in return for a fee - About$8.2tn worth of refinancings have been completed through an estimated 30m transactions since 2009 - Higher interest rates should, overall, still be a boon for the banking industry. Banks are expected to be able to push up interest charges on loans while keeping deposit rates on hold – pocketing the difference - The benchmark 30-year mortgage rate … has risen from 3.36% to 4.17% over the same timeframe - Customers are typically charged about $2,000 to refinance, … Answer: New Zealand #1, Australia #2 29 December 2016 Question: What percentage of Americans pass out prior to the clock striking midnight New Years Eve? Japan sidesteps UN pension rule to flatter its public debt – Pg. 3 - Japan plans to duck new US rules on accounting for public pension liabilities while recognizing pension assets in a way that will obscure the size of its huge public debt - …Japan will continue to include assets backing pensions for teachers, police and local officials on the public balance sheet, as well as assets held by the Government Pension Investment Fund to support social security pensions - The decision will flatter the true size of Japan’s public debt – the biggest in the world at a net 125% of GDP, …and hamper efforts to compare its debt with other countries - Japan’s situation is extreme because the state holds assets worth about 48% of GDP to support social security as well as employment-related pensions for public servants such as the police Plan to scrap US estate tax rekindles fierce debate – Pg.
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