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GUYANA EDUCATION ACCESS PROJECT (GEAP) Ministry of Education/DFID

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GUYANA EDUCATION ACCESS PROJECT (GEAP) Ministry of Education/DFID GUYANA EDUCATION ACCESS PROJECT (GEAP) Ministry of Education/DFID REVIEW OF PROJECTED PUPIL NUMBERS IN REGIONS 3, 4 AND GEORGETOWN Submitted to: the Ministry of Education, Guyana and DFID Prepared by: Dr Mark Pelling through the University of Liverpool for CfBT 12-26 June 2001 CONTENTS Page no. Acknowledgements 2 Terms of Reference 3 Executive Summary 4 1 Introduction 6 2 School Mapping Guidelines 6 3 Projected Secondary School Demand for Regions 3, 4 12 and Greater Georgetown 4 Regional Planning Issues 20 Appendices: I Loss Tables for Regions 3, 4 and Georgetown 26 II Life Tables Based on Mortality Rates Only 27 III Life Tables Including Losses from Mortality and Emigration 29 IV Summary of A Guyana Education Access Project (GEAP) ‘Review of pupil numbers in Regions 6 and 10’, September 2000 31 V Maps of population and schools for Regions 3 and 4. 51 1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The fieldwork for this consultancy was conducted by Dr Mark Pelling over a 14 day period and included meetings with education officers in the Ministry of Education and with DFID/GEAP project officers in Georgetown, and with regional educational officers and headteachers in Regions 3, 4 and Georgetown. Many thanks to all of those who gave of their valuable time and expertise to contribute to this report. 2 TERMS OF REFERENCE The consultant will: • Meet relevant MoE planning officials in order to understand the background against which planning for future increases in secondary school enrolment is set. • Assess the current MoE information on secondary pupil numbers, covering both national and regional databases, with particular focus (at the Regional level) on Regions 3, 4 & Georgetown. • Identify a range of factors impacting on pupil numbers, agreeing with MoE the importance of and/or weighting for such factors. • Draw up and/or develop (as appropriate) guidelines on school-mapping with agreed assumptions, methodology, procedures and templates so that such an exercise can be replicated in other regions. • Make recommendations on the clustering/rationalisation of Primary Tops and on the convergence of Primary School secondary departments in the areas under study. • Produce a report (see below), a key purpose of which is to set out clearly the proposed numbers for the years 2002 to 2007 (the proposed period for the 5-year Strategic Plan) or, if possible, though to 2010. The consultant will produce a full report on the consultancy within four weeks of the completion of the visit. The report will include as an appendix relevant material from a previous consultancy report entitled ‘Review of projected pupil numbers in Regions 6 and 10, with a particular focus on clarifying whether there is a need for a further new secondary school in Region 10’. 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The key findings of this study are: 1. Combined unmet demand for Regions 3, 4 and Georgetown projected for 2007 is 19,652 (year 12-16) and 29,278 (year 12-17). Unmet demand in 2010 is estimated at a minimum of 17,967 (years 12-16) and 29,523 (years 12-17) in 2010. Ministry of Education planning guidelines set maximum secondary school size at 1050 students. Projected unmet demand for 2007 would require 19 new secondary schools based on 12-16 years education or 28 new secondary schools based on 12-17 years education. 2. Unmet demand for Region 3 projected for 2007 is 10,191 (year 12-16) and 13,269 (year 12-17). Unmet demand in 2010 is estimated at a minimum of 10,045 (year 12-16) and 13,739 (year 12-17). Ministry of Education planning guidelines set maximum secondary school size at 1,050 students. Projected unmet demand for 2007 would require ten new secondary schools based on 12-16 years education or 13 new secondary schools based on 12-17 years education. 3. Unmet demand for Region 4 projected for 2007 is 7,485 (year 12-16) and 10,291 (year 12-17). Unmet demand in 2010 is estimated at a minimum of 7435 (year 12-16) and 11118 (year 12-17). Ministry of Education planning guidelines set maximum secondary school size at 1050 students. Projected unmet demand for 2007 would require seven new secondary schools based on 12-16 years education or ten new secondary schools based on 12-17 years education. 4. Unmet demand for Greater Georgetown projected for 2007 is 2,948 (year 12- 16) and 6,683 (year 12-17). Unmet demand in 2010 is estimated at a minimum of 515 (year 12-16) and 4,685 (year 12-17). Ministry of Education planning guidelines set maximum secondary school size at 1050 students. Projected unmet demand for 2007 would require three new secondary schools based on 12-16 years education or 6 new secondary schools based on 12-17 years education. 5. It is recommended that HIV/AIDS be monitored by the Ministry of Education. In the long-term AIDS has the potential to effect population cohorts and the number of orphans in Guyana and hence to change the basis upon which projections for future educational demand are made. 6. Opportunities for streamlining the school systems exist in Region 3 and Region 4. In Region 3, expansion of the secondary school and the construction of a dormitory at Parika-Salem could provide increased access to secondary education for students living in riverine areas and currently attending primary Tops. In Region 4, population expansion requires new secondary facilities at Fowlis and Eccles. Also in Region 4 there may be some opportunity to improve access to secondary school education for riverine students by expanding the secondary school and building a dormitory at Kuru-Kururu. These opportunities should be reviewed for their social costs and benefits, particularly when residential facilities are proposed as the sole means of provision of secondary education for riverine students. 4 7. The relationship between private and public sector education is unclear and a study of the interactions between these two sectors in recommended. Particularly in Georgetown the number of privately run schools has increased rapidly in the late 1990s. The implications of this phenomena for the status of the public sector in terms of access to parental support, retention of the best teachers and students has not been studied. There is great scope for collaboration between the public and private sector and this should be investigated. A related issue is the practice of students attending private classes in addition to public school; this practice was found in all regions studied and also deserves attention from the Ministry of Education. 8. Educational need amongst squatting settlements on the eastern outskirts of Greater Georgetown is unknown and should be studied with a view to meeting identified needs. The most rapid population growth in Georgetown, and arguably in Guyana in the 1990s, took place between Sophia and Industry on the eastern side of Greater Georgetown. These squatting settlements have gained increasing recognition and are on the path towards regularisation. There is no data on the educational needs of the residents of these areas and a programme to identify and meet these needs, especially at the nursery and primary levels, should be considered. It is noted that the Ministry of Education has made some progress in this direction with the proposal of an 800 place primary school for the area. This investment is planned for completion in the final phase of the Primary Education Improvement Project. 5 1. INTRODUCTION In line with the terms of reference this report has a number of objectives. First, the report sets out some guidelines for microplanning and school mapping that have not been covered in earlier microplanning reports. Secondly, projections for secondary school demand in Regions 3, 4 and Georgetown are presented. Thirdly, regional planning issues identified during discussions with regional planners and headteachers are presented as items for consideration by the Educational Planning Unit. Fourthly, in the Appendices, full workings used to derive projections are shown, together with a summarised version of an earlier report conducted with the Ministry of Education and the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID) and CfBT, that provides some background information on microplanning in Guyana and provides a microplanning assessment of educational sub-regions in Regions 6 and 10. 2. SCHOOL MAPPING GUIDELINES School mapping is one component of educational microplanning, and should be developed as part of a comprehensive local educational planning system. Educational microplanning can help planners by providing information on school-specific issues and on comparisons of the resources and planning challenges facing different schools or regions. Such information increases the transparency of decision- making on the allocation of resources between and within regions and schools. In the year 2000, the Education Planning Unit of the Ministry of Education produced ‘Educational Microplanning and School Mapping: A technical manual’, and this document should be referred to by those involved in conducting future microplanning and school mapping exercises. The Ministry of Education document notes that microplanning is a process rather than a one-off event, and a programme of regular microplanning data gathering and analysis is recommended. To support Educational Microplanning and School Mapping: A technical manual, guidelines for school mapping in Guyana are presented in this section. In the following section these guidelines are illustrated by their application to a study of secondary school provision in Regions 3, 4 and Georgetown. Previous educational microplanning exercises conducted in sub-regions of Regions, 6 and 10 can be found in the appendix. School mapping in educational microplanning has three basic components: • Demographic and school mapping • School demand and provision planning • Identification of microplanning issues 2.1 Demographic and School Mapping The aim of demographic and school mapping is to maximise the physical accessibility of schools by matching the geographical distribution of population with school locations.
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