GUYANA EDUCATION ACCESS PROJECT (GEAP) Ministry of Education/DFID
REVIEW OF PROJECTED PUPIL NUMBERS IN REGIONS 3, 4 AND GEORGETOWN
Submitted to: the Ministry of Education, Guyana and DFID
Prepared by: Dr Mark Pelling through the University of Liverpool for CfBT 12-26 June 2001 CONTENTS Page no.
Acknowledgements 2
Terms of Reference 3
Executive Summary 4
1 Introduction 6
2 School Mapping Guidelines 6
3 Projected Secondary School Demand for Regions 3, 4 12 and Greater Georgetown
4 Regional Planning Issues 20
Appendices:
I Loss Tables for Regions 3, 4 and Georgetown 26 II Life Tables Based on Mortality Rates Only 27 III Life Tables Including Losses from Mortality and Emigration 29 IV Summary of A Guyana Education Access Project (GEAP) ‘Review of pupil numbers in Regions 6 and 10’, September 2000 31 V Maps of population and schools for Regions 3 and 4. 51
1
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The fieldwork for this consultancy was conducted by Dr Mark Pelling over a 14 day period and included meetings with education officers in the Ministry of Education and with DFID/GEAP project officers in Georgetown, and with regional educational officers and headteachers in Regions 3, 4 and Georgetown. Many thanks to all of those who gave of their valuable time and expertise to contribute to this report.
2 TERMS OF REFERENCE
The consultant will: • Meet relevant MoE planning officials in order to understand the background against which planning for future increases in secondary school enrolment is set. • Assess the current MoE information on secondary pupil numbers, covering both national and regional databases, with particular focus (at the Regional level) on Regions 3, 4 & Georgetown. • Identify a range of factors impacting on pupil numbers, agreeing with MoE the importance of and/or weighting for such factors. • Draw up and/or develop (as appropriate) guidelines on school-mapping with agreed assumptions, methodology, procedures and templates so that such an exercise can be replicated in other regions. • Make recommendations on the clustering/rationalisation of Primary Tops and on the convergence of Primary School secondary departments in the areas under study. • Produce a report (see below), a key purpose of which is to set out clearly the proposed numbers for the years 2002 to 2007 (the proposed period for the 5-year Strategic Plan) or, if possible, though to 2010.
The consultant will produce a full report on the consultancy within four weeks of the completion of the visit. The report will include as an appendix relevant material from a previous consultancy report entitled ‘Review of projected pupil numbers in Regions 6 and 10, with a particular focus on clarifying whether there is a need for a further new secondary school in Region 10’.
3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The key findings of this study are:
1. Combined unmet demand for Regions 3, 4 and Georgetown projected for 2007 is 19,652 (year 12-16) and 29,278 (year 12-17). Unmet demand in 2010 is estimated at a minimum of 17,967 (years 12-16) and 29,523 (years 12-17) in 2010. Ministry of Education planning guidelines set maximum secondary school size at 1050 students. Projected unmet demand for 2007 would require 19 new secondary schools based on 12-16 years education or 28 new secondary schools based on 12-17 years education.
2. Unmet demand for Region 3 projected for 2007 is 10,191 (year 12-16) and 13,269 (year 12-17). Unmet demand in 2010 is estimated at a minimum of 10,045 (year 12-16) and 13,739 (year 12-17). Ministry of Education planning guidelines set maximum secondary school size at 1,050 students. Projected unmet demand for 2007 would require ten new secondary schools based on 12-16 years education or 13 new secondary schools based on 12-17 years education.
3. Unmet demand for Region 4 projected for 2007 is 7,485 (year 12-16) and 10,291 (year 12-17). Unmet demand in 2010 is estimated at a minimum of 7435 (year 12-16) and 11118 (year 12-17). Ministry of Education planning guidelines set maximum secondary school size at 1050 students. Projected unmet demand for 2007 would require seven new secondary schools based on 12-16 years education or ten new secondary schools based on 12-17 years education.
4. Unmet demand for Greater Georgetown projected for 2007 is 2,948 (year 12- 16) and 6,683 (year 12-17). Unmet demand in 2010 is estimated at a minimum of 515 (year 12-16) and 4,685 (year 12-17). Ministry of Education planning guidelines set maximum secondary school size at 1050 students. Projected unmet demand for 2007 would require three new secondary schools based on 12-16 years education or 6 new secondary schools based on 12-17 years education.
5. It is recommended that HIV/AIDS be monitored by the Ministry of Education. In the long-term AIDS has the potential to effect population cohorts and the number of orphans in Guyana and hence to change the basis upon which projections for future educational demand are made.
6. Opportunities for streamlining the school systems exist in Region 3 and Region 4. In Region 3, expansion of the secondary school and the construction of a dormitory at Parika-Salem could provide increased access to secondary education for students living in riverine areas and currently attending primary Tops. In Region 4, population expansion requires new secondary facilities at Fowlis and Eccles. Also in Region 4 there may be some opportunity to improve access to secondary school education for riverine students by expanding the secondary school and building a dormitory at Kuru-Kururu. These opportunities should be reviewed for their social costs and benefits, particularly when residential facilities are proposed as the sole means of provision of secondary education for riverine students.
4 7. The relationship between private and public sector education is unclear and a study of the interactions between these two sectors in recommended. Particularly in Georgetown the number of privately run schools has increased rapidly in the late 1990s. The implications of this phenomena for the status of the public sector in terms of access to parental support, retention of the best teachers and students has not been studied. There is great scope for collaboration between the public and private sector and this should be investigated. A related issue is the practice of students attending private classes in addition to public school; this practice was found in all regions studied and also deserves attention from the Ministry of Education.
8. Educational need amongst squatting settlements on the eastern outskirts of Greater Georgetown is unknown and should be studied with a view to meeting identified needs. The most rapid population growth in Georgetown, and arguably in Guyana in the 1990s, took place between Sophia and Industry on the eastern side of Greater Georgetown. These squatting settlements have gained increasing recognition and are on the path towards regularisation. There is no data on the educational needs of the residents of these areas and a programme to identify and meet these needs, especially at the nursery and primary levels, should be considered. It is noted that the Ministry of Education has made some progress in this direction with the proposal of an 800 place primary school for the area. This investment is planned for completion in the final phase of the Primary Education Improvement Project.
5 1. INTRODUCTION
In line with the terms of reference this report has a number of objectives. First, the report sets out some guidelines for microplanning and school mapping that have not been covered in earlier microplanning reports. Secondly, projections for secondary school demand in Regions 3, 4 and Georgetown are presented. Thirdly, regional planning issues identified during discussions with regional planners and headteachers are presented as items for consideration by the Educational Planning Unit. Fourthly, in the Appendices, full workings used to derive projections are shown, together with a summarised version of an earlier report conducted with the Ministry of Education and the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID) and CfBT, that provides some background information on microplanning in Guyana and provides a microplanning assessment of educational sub-regions in Regions 6 and 10.
2. SCHOOL MAPPING GUIDELINES
School mapping is one component of educational microplanning, and should be developed as part of a comprehensive local educational planning system. Educational microplanning can help planners by providing information on school-specific issues and on comparisons of the resources and planning challenges facing different schools or regions. Such information increases the transparency of decision- making on the allocation of resources between and within regions and schools. In the year 2000, the Education Planning Unit of the Ministry of Education produced ‘Educational Microplanning and School Mapping: A technical manual’, and this document should be referred to by those involved in conducting future microplanning and school mapping exercises. The Ministry of Education document notes that microplanning is a process rather than a one-off event, and a programme of regular microplanning data gathering and analysis is recommended.
To support Educational Microplanning and School Mapping: A technical manual, guidelines for school mapping in Guyana are presented in this section. In the following section these guidelines are illustrated by their application to a study of secondary school provision in Regions 3, 4 and Georgetown. Previous educational microplanning exercises conducted in sub-regions of Regions, 6 and 10 can be found in the appendix.
School mapping in educational microplanning has three basic components:
• Demographic and school mapping • School demand and provision planning • Identification of microplanning issues
2.1 Demographic and School Mapping The aim of demographic and school mapping is to maximise the physical accessibility of schools by matching the geographical distribution of population with school locations. Maps are produced showing these distributions. Education planning norms on maximum and minimum school student sizes and maximum catchment sizes should be used as guidelines for making judgements on the appropriateness of school distributions.
At the time of writing, the following non-educational planning norms were in operation:
Secondary School Size Minimum: 200 students Optimum: 350 students (2 streams) 525 students (3 streams) 700 students (4 streams) Maximum: 1,050 students (5/6 streams)
6 Distance/Catchment Maximum distance to be travelled by a student: 7km by foot 20km by road transport
Source: Meeting of The Senior Policy-Making Group Non-Academic Education Norms, Ministry of Education, Government of Guyana, June 2000, pp10, 19.
School location information is held by the Education Planning Unit and should be verified by checking with regional educational planners. Demographic information for individual villages and wards is held by the Statistical Bureau. At the time of writing, the most up to date population census dated to 1991. More recent population projections had been calculated by the Bureau of Statistics for national population but for microplanning a much finer resolution is necessary. The datedness of the 1991 census will reduce the potential usefulness of the mapping exercises until a new census is completed. However, this can be overcome to some degree by consultation with the Central Housing and Planning Authority and regional administrations which hold details on housing developments and squatter settlements for each region. This information can be used to identify areas of population expansion within each region. A population census is planned for 2002/2003 and this will be a key resource for microplanning in the near future.
2.2 School Demand and Provision Planning Provision refers to the current and any planned future capacity in the education system. Put simply – provision tells us how many students can be catered for within the educational system, at any of its levels. Provision can be measured in many ways, depending on the service to be provided. The level and quality of educational service to be provided will affect the choice of indicator used to estimate provision. Annual school questionnaires, collated by the Education Planning Unit, are the primary source of information. Data is available on the number of text books, students entered for public examination, passes in public examinations, enrolled students and employed teachers, classrooms and space per pupil. All this information can be used to indicate the quality of education being offered. At a most fundamental level it is important to know how much capacity there is in the educational system. If it is assumed that schools are currently running at full capacity then current enrolment can be used to indicate the capacity of educational systems. This assumption should be verified with the Educational Planning Unit, regional planning officers and headteachers.
Demand refers to the number of school places that are required to satisfy the requirements of the target population. This will normally be the total school age population in a given community or region. However, in cases where drop-out or non-enrolment rates are high it may be unrealistic to expect 100% of school age children to attend school even if provision were available. In these cases it is important to consult with regional educational planners and headteachers to estimate the proportion of school age children enrolled in school. A social survey is often a useful tool to identify the proportion of non- enrolled children and to understand why children fail to enrol; this could be explained by early marriage or the need to seek an income.
The recommended method for projecting future demand for school services is based on the assumption that 100% of school age children are currently enrolled. How realistic is this assumption? The most up to date data comes from a GEAP Household and Income Expenditure Survey conducted in Linden Town in 2000. It was found that 98.4% of 4-5 year olds attended nursery school and 91.2% of 6-11 year olds attended primary school. In Table 1 data from the 1980 and 1991 national censuses show similarly high rates of enrolment for children aged 7 to 10 but much lower rates for younger and older children. This is not surprising, Guyana has undergone rapid political policy and socio-economic change since 1980/1991 and difference in enrolment rates is to be expected. Indeed, the similarity in 7- 10 age groups indicates the reliability of these age groups for use as proxies for total school age populations.
Table 1: Age Specific Enrolment Rates (%) Age Regions (1991) Guyana 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1980 1991 5 14 15 12 15 19 14 12 26 24 14 79 15 6 75 91 92 94 93 90 92 79 88 96 91 92
7 7 82 93 96 97 97 96 94 86 91 98 96 96 8 83 95 96 98 97 97 97 93 95 98 96 97 9 89 93 96 98 96 95 96 86 94 98 98 96 10 90 92 94 96 96 93 94 90 96 97 97 95 11 88 83 81 80 86 80 77 84 91 89 97 82 12 67 38 34 30 48 40 55 80 83 41 96 38 13 3 9 12 8 19 22 34 57 54 5 91 14 14 1 5 8 4 11 10 19 39 44 3 80 7 15 0 2 4 3 5 6 8 21 34 2 61 5 Date Sources: 1980 National Population and Housing Census, 1991 Population and Housing Census
Clearly the 100% assumption should be viewed with some caution, and this bias has the effect of making projected demand slightly lower than full demand. With this assumption, it is possible to use current school enrolments as a baseline for secondary school demand projections seven to ten years into the future. In the 2002 census it may be possible to break regional populations down into age cohorts, this will provide an acceptable alternative planning baseline. See Appendix IV for a discussion on the merits of different baselines for projecting demand.
For all projections in this report, current nursery, primary and secondary school enrolments have been used as the baseline from which to make projections on secondary school demand. It is assumed that current school enrolments are 100% of demand at the nursery and primary levels. Present enrolments are used to predict future secondary school demand as successive age cohorts progress through the school system. This method has was used and justified in the Educational Microplanning and School Mapping Technical Manual and in the 2000 Review of Pupil Numbers in Regions 6 and 10 (see Appendix IV).
The proportion of children not enrolled in school may differ for nursery, primary and secondary levels – and indeed across different regions and communities. It is important to indicate difference in the proportions of non-enrolments between school levels so that biases in final projects can be estimated. In past microplanning exercises in Guyana primary levels have tended to have the largest proportion of school age children enrolled with the proportion of nursery age children enrolled being 2-6% lower. Secondary school enrolments are generally high in the first two years but then fall off rapidly with Forms 5 and 6. This suggests that projections including enrolment data for secondary schools will underplay the true size of the secondary school age population. Thus projections for years 2002 onwards will tend to increase in size and in closeness to the total size of the school age population. Despite the formal provision of secondary education, at present many secondary school age children are not in school. Figures for the combined sample of Regions 3, 4 and Greater Georgetown show that in secondary years non-enrolment varies from 9% in the first year of secondary school to 70% in Form 5 (see Appendix 1). This is calculated by comparing the difference between the mean size of annual enrolments for nursery and primary school year (when almost full enrolment is achieved) with the annual enrolment figures for secondary school years.
Generating the projection based on a single year’s enrolment data is done by moving each age cohort through the school system. For each successive year, each age cohort progresses through the school system from nursery to primary, and from primary to secondary. As each age cohort moves onto its next class, losses from mortality and emigration need to be considered. Both these types of loss data are available from the annual school returns held by the Educational Planning Unit. Data from individual schools is added to arrive at a total mortality and emigration rate, and these two rates should then added to arrive at a total loss rate for each age group per year. Ideally, means should be calculated from a number of successive annual mortality, emigration and total loss rates year/class group.
Data on mortality and emigration should be cross-checked by reference to an independent data source, for example the Ministry of Health for age specific mortality rates by region and the Statistical Bureau for data on emigration. At the time of writing no alternative sources of data on mortality or emigration existed at the regional scale. Ministry of Health mortality data is presented in Table 2.
8 Table 2: Age Specific Mortality for Guyana, 1996-1999 Age in Years Years Mean number of 1996 1997 1998 1999 deaths Under 1 463 506 422 280 418 1 66 68 49 62 61 2 25 23 20 23 23 3 20 17 23 18 20 4 13 16 13 13 14 5 8 7 8 10 8 6 6 9 12 10 9 7 5 9 5 7 7 8 14 6 7 3 8 9 8 8 10 8 9 10 5 12 1 9 7 11 9 7 6 4 7 12 2 4 6 11 6 13 13 7 10 10 10 14 12 16 5 11 11 15 8 12 9 16 11 16 7 12 11 8 10 17 14 17 12 17 15
The information in Table 2 should be used to verify the accuracy of mortality data in annual school questionnaires. It is likely that mortality recorded by the Ministry of Health will be less complete than mortality recorded by the Ministry of Education amongst attending school age children. If it is found that the Ministry of Health values are higher then the reliability of the Ministry of Education data should be questioned.
The formulae used to calculate mortality, emigration and total loss rates from an annual enrolment baseline are shown in Box 1 and in the appendix:
Box 1: Age Specific Loss Rate Formulae
Age Specific Mortality Rate = (total deaths/total enrolment) x 1000 Age Specific Emigration Rate = (total emigrations/total enrolments) x 1000 Age Specific Total Loss Rate = age specific mortality rate + age specific emigration rate
To calculate number of deaths for each year cohort in the life tables: (total loss rate for a given year/1000) x total enrolment for a given year
All figures are rounded up from 0.5
For planners, the most important piece of information is often expected future demand, the gap between current provision of school services and expected future demand. Future demand is calculated by subtracting projected annual demand values from current enrolment (Box 2). The calculated demand will be a conservative value as it assumes 100% enrolment. A negative value for future demand indicates that the school age population is decreasing; a positive value indicates that the school age population is increasing relative to the base year.
Box 2: Calculating Future Demand
Future Annual Demand = Projected Annual Demand – Current Enrolments
2.3 Local School Microplanning Issues
9 Local knowledge is an essential ingredient of successful microplanning. Local insight is needed to properly analyse demographic and school maps and to assess the reasonableness of the assumptions made in school demand and provision planning. Local educational planners and headteachers should be included in the process of analysing maps and demand projections and will be best placed to identify and provide solutions for local education planning problems.
There are many policy issues and social changes that can affect microplanning. One issue that may be of growing future importance in Guyana is the potential impact of HIV/AIDS on school age population size and character. Ministry of Health data shows that mortality rates from recorded AIDS cases were 0.5/1000 in 1999 and 0.3/1000 in 2000 (Table 3). However, many deaths are not diagnosed or recorded as AIDS; the World Health Organisation estimates that in 1999 some 900 deaths were from AIDS and that 1100 orphans had been created by deaths of parents from AIDS in Guyana up to 2000 (http://www.who.int/emc-hiv/fact_sheets/pdfs/guyana.pdf). It is beyond the scope of this report to examine the pathology of AIDS in Guyana. However, it is recommended that the disease be monitored by the Ministry of Education as, in the long-term, AIDS has the potential to affect population cohorts as well as the number of orphans in Guyana.
Table 3: Mortality from AIDS by Age Group in Guyana Age Group 1999 2000 1-4 10 10 5-14 3 3 15-19 12 5 20-24 36 25 25-29 80 47 30-34 72 42 35-39 43 43 40-44 29 26 45-49 25 15 50-54 10 7 55-59 5 7 60+ 6 9 Unknown 7 9 Total 338 248 Source: Statistical Department, Ministry of Health
3. PROJECTED SECONDARY SCHOOL DEMAND FOR REGIONS 3, 4 AND GREATER GEORGETOWN
Before presenting demand projections for these regions it is important to check the comparability of the three regions’ enrolment data and any anomalies hidden within these datasets. Comparing nursery and primary enrolments in Regions 3, 4 and Georgetown (Table 4) suggests that only a very a small number of nursery school age children were not enrolled in 2000. Only in Georgetown was the difference in enrolments significant; here the means differed by 814 (25%). But Georgetown is a special case; this difference is likely to be as much a result of children commuting into Georgetown from the Regions to attend preferred primary schools, as it is an indicator of local nursery school non-enrolment caused by urban poverty and social exclusion.
Table 4: Mean Cohort Populations in Nursery and Primary Schools by Region
Mean class cohort Combined Region 3 Region 4 Georgetown populations, 2000 Regions Nursery 10,529 3,782 3,464 3,282 Primary 11,046 3,538 3,412 4,096 % difference 5% -6% -2% 25% Data Source: Annual School Questionnaire, Education Planning Unit
10 Currently, from secondary Form 2 (14 years) the number of students dropping out of education increases rapidly with each successive form, with very few school age children enrolled in Forms 4, 5 and 6. This brings a negative bias to the projections, resulting in future demand estimations being below real potential demand levels. In the combined projection for Regions 3, 4 and Georgetown, 8,110 students enrolled in Form 2 compared to 3,271 in Form 5 and 291 in Form 6. A combination of poverty, early marriage, lack of perceived utility or quality in the higher grades of secondary education and a lack of trained staff in primary Tops all contribute to this pattern. The effect of this bias on the demand projections is to artificially reduce total secondary school demand projected for the years 2001- 2007 with the bias decreasing from 2001 onwards. It is this bias that accounts for the positive trend in all secondary enrolment projection graphs (see Figures 1 to 4). The planning reality in Guyana is that those students of secondary school age not enrolled in secondary school in 2000 are unlikely to return to secondary school. It is, however, more likely that students currently enrolled in primary school in 2000 will wish to graduate to secondary school and indeed this is a planning objective of the Ministry of Education. Thus, although this method of demand projection does not allow us to calculate the total population size of school age children for years before 2007 it does show us a more flexible understanding of demand based on the number of children enrolled in 2000.
Four secondary school demand projections are presented below for the years 2000-2010. The first projection provides estimates of combined total demand for Regions 3, 4 and Georgetown. This is followed by individual projections for Region 3, Region 4 and Georgetown. For each projection the baseline is enrolments recorded on the first day of school, October 2000. The projections present two different scenarios, each using two adjusted enrolment baselines. Thus for each region four projections have been calculated. The first scenario is that secondary education for all will include secondary forms 1–5 (years 12-16), the second is that secondary education for all will be extended to secondary forms 1- 6 (years 12-17). At the time of writing either policy choice was a potential option, and so both scenarios have been presented here. For each scenario, projections from a 2000 enrolment baseline have been adjusted year by year to take into account either deaths alone or deaths and emigrations. Again, this is to provide the maximum of information to educational planners. For all graphs, emigration is by far the dominant cause of loss from population cohorts. Throughout, primary TOP enrolments are counted as secondary places.
3.1 Projections for Regions 3,4 and Georgetown Combined To understand Figure 1, we first need to look at the impact of the biases discussed above on the demand curves.
• Figure 1 shows an apparently rapid increase in demand for secondary school from 2000 to 2007. This is a product of low enrolment numbers for secondary school forms 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 in the 2000 combined base line. Year by year these small student cohorts (which are below the number of school age children and so underestimate demand) are replaced by larger cohorts from 2000 primary school enrolments (see Appendix). The effect is a steady increase in the apparent size of secondary school demand as dropout prone secondary cohorts are replaced by primary cohorts, cohorts that more accurately represent the number of school age children in the population. The consequence of this bias is for projected enrolments before 2007 to be underestimated.
• Mean nursery school enrolments are 5% smaller than mean primary school enrolments (Table 4). Nursery school cohorts enter the secondary school demand projection in 2007, two cohorts are included in 2008, 2009 and 2010. The consequence of this bias is for projected enrolments in 2007 onwards to be underestimated. Because average nursery cohorts are only 5% smaller than primary cohorts, and because the majority of cohorts included in calculating projected secondary demand are from primary cohorts this bias has only a small effect on the final projection. The bias can be seen in a slight falling off in projected demand for 2009 and 2010, these year projections should be taken as guidelines only and as underestimates.
11
Figure 1: Demand Projections for Combined Population
80000
70000
60000 Mortality rates (12-16) 50000 Mortality rates (12-17)
40000 Mortality and emigration rates
Demand (12-16) 30000 Mortality and emigration rates (12-17) 20000
10000
0
2 3 06 009 2000 2001 200 200 2004 2005 20 2007 2008 2 2010 Years
Current secondary school capacity, projected secondary school demand and calculated unmet demand for 2001 to 2010 are shown in Table 5. This table gives values for both the 12-16 and 12-17 scenarios based on projections that have taken mortality and emigration rates into account.
Table 5: Unmet Demand Taking Mortality and Emigration into Account, Combined Regions 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Demand 35146 41709 44838 47610 50553 52615 54901 55089 55131 54603 53404 12-16 Demand 35437 44960 51368 54965 58530 62142 64647 64715 65228 65490 64960 12-17 2000 35437 35437 35437 35437 35437 35437 35437 35437 35437 35437 35437 Capacity Unmet -291 6272 9401 12173 15116 17178 19464 19652 19694 19166 17967 Demand 12-16 Unmet 0 9523 15931 19528 23093 27305 29210 29278 29791 30053 29523 Demand 12-17
12
Unmet demand increases from 2000 reaching 19,652 (12-16)/29,278 (12-17) in 2007 and peaking at 19,694 (12-16)/29791 (12-17) in 2008 before falling off to 17967 (12- 16)/29523 (12-17) in 2010. Ministry of Education planning guidelines set maximum secondary school size at 1,050 students. Projected unmet demand for 2007 would require 19 new secondary schools based on 12-16 years education or 28 new secondary schools based on 12-17 years education.
3.2 Projection for Region 3 To understand Figure 2 we first need to look at the impact of the biases discussed above on the demand curves.
• Figure 2 shows an apparently rapid increase in demand for secondary school from 2000 to 2008. This is a product of low enrolment numbers for secondary school forms 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 and senior primary school forms. Primary form Pa had 4,267 enrolled students compared to primary form S4 with 3,052 students. Year by year by these small student cohorts (which are below the number of school age children and so underestimate demand) are replaced by more representative and larger cohorts from 2000 primary school enrolments (see appendix). The effect is a steady increase in the apparent size of secondary school demand as drop-out prone secondary and senior primary school cohorts are replaced by junior primary cohorts that more accurately represent the number of school age children in Region 3. The consequence of this bias is for projected enrolments before 2008 to be underestimated.
• Mean primary school enrolments are 6% smaller than mean nursery school enrolments (Table 4) but there is a great degree of variation between primary school year cohort sizes (appendix). This variability means that despite a larger nursery mean size overall projected demand falls off in 2009 and 2010; these year projections should be taken as guidelines only and as underestimates.
25000
20000 Mortality rates (12-16)
15000 Mortality rates (12-17)
Mortality and emigration
Demand 10000 rates (12-16) Mortality and emigration rates (12-17) 5000
0
5 6 7 8 9 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200 200 200 200 200 201 Years
Figure 2: Demand Projection for Region 3 Current secondary school capacity, projected secondary school demand and calculated unmet demand for 2001 to 2010 are shown in Table 6. This table gives values for both the 12-16 and 12-17 scenarios based on projections that have taken mortality and emigration rates into account.
13 Table 6: Unmet Demand Including Mortality and Emigration, Combined Regions 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Demand 8280 10485 12094 13648 15225 16747 17920 18478 18917 18680 18332 12-16 Demand 8287 11295 13584 15290 17250 18937 20906 21556 22512 22254 22026 12-17 2000 8287 8287 8287 8287 8287 8287 8287 8287 8287 8287 8287 Capacity Unmet -7 2198 3807 5361 6938 8460 9633 10191 10630 10393 10045 Demand 12-16 Unmet 0 3008 5297 7003 8963 10650 12619 13269 14225 13967 13739 Demand 12-17
Unmet demand increases from 2000 reaching 10,191 (12-16)/13,269 (12-17) in 2007 and peaking at 10,630 (12-16)/14,225 (12-17) in 2008 before falling off to 10,045 (12-16)/13,739 (12-17) in 2010. Ministry of Education planning guidelines set maximum secondary school size at 1050 students. Projected unmet demand for 2007 would require 10 new secondary schools based on 12-16 years education or 13 new secondary schools based on 12-17 years education.
3.3 Projection for Region 4 To understand Figure 3 we first need to look at the impact of the biases discussed above on the demand curves.
• Figure 3 shows an apparently rapid increase in demand for secondary school from 2000 to 2007. This is a product of low enrolment numbers for secondary school forms 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. Year by year these small student cohorts (which are below the number of school age children and so underestimate demand) are replaced by more representative and larger cohorts from 2000 primary school enrolments (see appendix). The effect is a steady increase in the apparent size of secondary school demand as drop-out prone secondary and senior primary school cohorts are replaced by junior primary cohorts that more accurately represent the number of school age children in Region 4. The consequence of this bias is for projected enrolments before 2007 to be underestimated.
• Mean primary school enrolments are 2% smaller than mean nursery school enrolments (Table 4) but there is a great degree of variation between primary school year cohort sizes (appendix). This variability means that despite a larger nursery mean size overall, projected demand falls off in 2009 and 2010; these year projections should be taken as guidelines only and as underestimates.
Figure 3: Demand Projection for Region 4
14 25000
20000
Mortality rates (12-16)
15000 Mortality rates (12-17)
Mortality and emigration rates
Demand (12-16) 10000 Mortality and emigration rates (12-17)
5000
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00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 0 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 2 20 2010 Years
Current secondary school capacity, projected secondary school demand and calculated unmet demand for 2001 to 2010 are shown in Table 7. This table gives values for both the 12-16 and 12-17 scenarios based on projections that have taken mortality and emigration rates into account.
Table 7: Unmet Demand Including Mortality and Emigration, Region 4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Demand 9711 12361 13389 14495 15634 16232 16895 17270 17710 17615 17220 12-16 Demand 9785 12912 15174 16402 17886 19327 20072 20076 20716 20995 20903 12-17 2000 9785 9785 9785 9785 9785 9785 9785 9785 9785 9785 9785 Capacity Unmet -74 2576 3604 4710 5849 6447 7110 7485 7925 7830 7435 Demand 12-16 Unmet 0 3127 5389 6617 8101 9542 10287 10291 10931 11210 11118 Demand 12-17
Unmet demand increases from 2000, reaching 7,485 (12-16)/10,291 (12-17) in 2007 and peaking at 7,625 (12-16) in 2,008 and 11,210 (12-17) in 2009 before falling off to 7,435 (12-16)/11,118 (12-17) in 2010. Ministry of Education planning guidelines set maximum secondary school size at 1050 students. Projected unmet demand for 2007 would require 7 new secondary schools based on 12-16 years education or 10 new secondary schools based on 12-17 years education.
3.4 Projection for Greater Georgetown To understand Figure 4 we first need to look at the impact of the biases discussed above on the demand curves.
• Figure 4 shows an apparent increase in demand for secondary school from 2000 to 2005/2006. This is a product of low enrolment numbers for secondary school forms 4, 5 and 6. Year by year
15 these small student cohorts (which are below the number of school age children and so underestimate demand) are replaced by more representative and larger cohorts from 2000 primary school enrolments (see appendix). The effect is a steady increase in the apparent size of secondary school demand as drop-out prone secondary and senior primary school cohorts are replaced by junior primary cohorts that more accurately represent the number of school age children in Greater Georgetown. The consequence of this bias is for projected enrolments before 2005 to be underestimated.
• Mean primary school enrolments are 25% larger than mean nursery school enrolments (Table 4). Consequently demand appears to fall off after 2007 when the nursery cohorts are included in secondary school projections. Greater Georgetown is a special case at all levels of educational provision because it is the site not only of local but also of national educational provision. The disproportionately high number of primary school students compared to nursery level students reflects this. The difference is perhaps partly a result of urban poverty but is also greatly influenced by parents from Region 4 and to a lesser extent Region 3 bringing primary age children into Georgetown schools. Parents make this choice for convenience – many parents work in Georgetown – but also as the better primary schools are located in Georgetown.
Figure 4: Demand Projection for Greater Georgetown
16 30000
25000
Mortality rates (12-16) 20000
Mortality rates (12-17)
15000 Mortality and emigration rates
Demand (12-16)
10000 Mortality and emigration rates (12-17)
5000
0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 0 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 2 20 2010 Years
Current secondary school capacity, projected secondary school demand and calculated unmet demand for 2001 to 2010 are shown in Table 8. This table gives values for both the 12-16 and 12-17 scenarios based on projections that have taken mortality and emigration rates into account.
Table 8: Unmet Demand Including Mortality and Emigration, Greater Georgetown 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Demand 17155 18857 19342 19459 19678 20611 21076 20313 19475 18306 17880 12-16 Demand 17365 20746 22594 23259 23378 24855 24657 24048 23387 23206 22050 12-17 2000 17365 17365 17365 17365 17365 17365 17365 17365 17365 17365 17365 Capacity Unmet -210 1492 1977 2094 2313 3246 3711 2948 2110 941 515 Demand 12-16 Unmet 0 3381 5229 5894 6013 7490 7292 6683 6022 5841 4685 Demand 12-17
Unmet demand increases from 2000, peaks in 2005 at 7,490 (12-17) and 2006 at 3,711 (12-16). In 2007 unmet demand is 2,948 (12-16)/6,683 (12-17). Unmet demand falls off towards 2010 where it reaches 515 (12-16) and 4,685 (12-17). Ministry of Education planning guidelines set maximum secondary school size at 1,050 students. Projected unmet demand for 2007 would require three new secondary schools based on 12-16 years education or 6 new secondary schools based on 12-17 years education.
17
4. REGIONAL PLANNING ISSUES
4.1 Region 3
As part of this consultancy Regional Educational Planners and Headteachers were interviewed to identify any region specific microplanning issues. In following this discussion Map 1, showing the distribution of population in Region 3, and Map 2, showing the distribution of educational facilities in Region 3, are referred to. Both maps can be found in Appendix 3.
The following points are a summary of the main issues raised in Region 3 and should be considered in future educational microplanning in this region:
• Educational microplanning in Region Three is structured around nine clusters, shown in Table 9.
Table 9: School Clusters, Region 3 Cluster Secondary Community Primary Tops Schools Highs Leguan 1 0 2 Wakenaam 1 0 5 Essequibo River 0 0 12 Demerara River 0 0 6 East Bank Essequibo: 0 2 4 Zeelugt- St Lawrence Meten-Meer-Zorg – Cornelia Ida 3 1 1 Hague – Crane 0 0 3 Vreed-En-Hoop – Nismes 1 1 2 La Retraite – Vive-La-Force 1 1 3
• A lack of space in schools had resulted in a reduced vocational skills training programme in some schools, for example: Wales Community High School.
• In some cases either land or buildings were not owned by the Ministry of Education preventing expansions and improvements, for example: Leonora Secondary School where some buildings were reported to belong to a Hindu Temple.
• In order to improve the quality of education and to attract more secondary aged children into school, emphasis needs to be placed on human resources as much as on physical infrastructure and expansion.
• The failure of schools to deliver adequate training in vocational areas has been a major factor in encouraging children to drop out of education early.
• Pressure on nursery and primary school resources impact on secondary school resources, for example: L’Aventure has a secondary department but space is being lost to a nursery school in the same building.
• Commuting of students to Georgetown. This is not felt to be a major issue for Region Three. At the secondary level it was estimated that no more than 10% of students from Region Three studied in Georgetown.
18
• There is scope for streamlining the provision of secondary education in the Essequibo River cluster. Expansion of the secondary school at Parika-Salem and the construction of a dormitory facility for 80 students would allow access to full secondary education for children from riverine communities. This would allow the closure of small primary Tops at Upper Bonasika (11 students), Lower Bonasika (15 students), Fort Island (1 student), Parika Back (10 students), Blake (15 students) and St. Lawrence (12 students) and the concentration of resources in these schools at the primary level (see Maps 1 and 2).
4.2 Region 4
As part of this consultancy Regional Educational Planners and Headteachers were interviewed to identify any region specific microplanning issues. For this project educational regional areas were used so that Region 4 excludes Georgetown which is a discrete educational planning area. In following this discussion Map 3, showing the distribution of population in Region 4 and Map 4, showing the distribution of educational facilities in Region 4, are referred to. Both maps can be found in Appendix 3.
The following points are a summary of the main issues raised in Region 4 and should be considered in future educational microplanning in this region:
• Regional microplanning is structured around three large geographical regions: the East Coast (St Paul’s to Cane Grove), the East Bank (Supply to Eccles) and the Riverine Communities (Moblissa to Soesdyke). In turn these geographical regions are split into 7 planning sub-regions (see Maps 3 and 4):
Table 10: School Clusters, Region 4 Cluster Secondary Community Primary Tops Schools Highs Virginia – Victoria 0 1 6 Cove & John – Annandale 5 1 7 Lusignan – Plaisance 0 2 1 Providence – Eccles 0 0 2 Friendship – Covent Garden 1 1 4 Timehri – Supply 0 1 0 Riverine Schools 1 0 10
• There is some need to review these clusters in the wake of growing population following housing developments and squatting especially in areas close to Georgetown, for example: the Eccles and Mon Repos areas. There is also an overlap in planning clusters between the Timehri-Supply and Riverine clusters. It should be made clear that Kuru-Kururu is not included in the Timehri-Supply cluster (see Map 3).
• New housing developments and squatting require new nursery and primary facilities in several locations including: on the East Coast, Mon Repos, Lusignan, Buxton, Non Pareil, Paradise, Victoria, Clonbrook; on the East Bank, Diamond, Eccles, Grove; and Riverine areas generally (see Maps 3 and 4).
• Rehabilitation of existing physical infrastructure needs to be tackled before building new schools, a case is Bladen Hall.
• It was felt that very few children did not attend nursery and primary school, perhaps only 1% on the coast and 5% in the riverine cluster.
• Secondary school drop out was a major problem underlaid by parents’ and students’ perceptions that there was little of relevance on offer in secondary school. Highest rates of drop out were amongst those students given places in primary Tops and Community High Schools. A key need identified in this region was for an improvement in the quality and relevance of teaching in
19 primary Tops and Community High Schools. In particular vocation skills training needs to be enhanced and to do this shortfalls in equipment also need to be addressed.
• A new secondary school is needed to meet increasing local demand in the Bladen Hall – Enterprise catchment, part of the Cove & John – Annandale planning sub-region. A proposed site for the school is at Fowlis (see Maps 3 and 4).
• A new secondary school is needed to meet increasing local demand from population growth in Eccles and Grove in the Providence – Eccles planning sub-region. Eccles was proposed as the optimum site (see Maps 3 and 4).
• A review of the provision of secondary education in the Riverine planning sub-region is needed. Streamlining of provision might be possible through establishing a secondary school at Kuru- Kururu together with a dormitory to provide accommodation for students currently catered for by primary Tops at Low Wood, Susannah’s Rust, Long creek, Silver Hill, Moblissa and children living in Region 3 (see Maps 3 and 4).
4.3 Greater Georgetown As part of this consultancy Regional Educational Planners and Headteachers were interviewed to identify any region specific microplanning issues. In following this discussion Map 5, showing the distribution of educational facilities in Greater Georgetown, is referred to. No population distribution map for Greater Georgetown has been produced. This is because the mobility of population within Georgetown, especially at the secondary and to a lesser extent the primary levels meant that physical access was less of an issue compared to Regions 3 and 4. Equal access to quality education does however remain an issue but one that falls outside the scope of this report.
The following points are a summary of the main issues raised in Greater Georgetown and should be considered in future educational microplanning in this region:
• Educational microplanning in Greater Georgetown is not based on sub-regions or clusters of schools, rather it is managed as a single unit. This is primarily because of the ease of transport around the city. There is an informal distinction made between provision in the south and north of Georgetown. Provision to the south of Brickdam is recognised as being of poorer quality than provision in northern Georgetown (excluding Central High School, St Stanislaus General Secondary, West Ruimveldt primary and South Ruimveldt General Secondary which are high quality schools located to the south of Brickdam).
• Rapid urban development to the east of Georgetown in the squatting areas of Sophia, Liliendaal, Pattensen, Turkeyen and Cummingslodge needs to be recognised in planning for nursery and primary schools. At present these communities are served only by schools in neighbouring formal housing schemes. There has been no educational needs assessment of this highly marginal and rapidly growing community and it is recommended that such a study be undertaken.
• Teachers and planners emphasised the need to improve the quality and appropriateness of education before building new schools. The greatest room for improvement is in Community High Schools where vocational skills’ teaching has been under-resourced; this in turn contributes to children’s decisions to drop out of secondary school. North Ruimveldt Multilatteral is a case in point.
• It is estimated that around 95% of primary and 85% of nursery school age children are enrolled in Georgetown. Non-enrolment is a consequence of urban poverty.
20
• Private sector provision is growing in Georgetown at all educational levels. There has been no study of the impact of privatising education on equality and access for Georgetown’s residents. It is recommended that such a study be undertaken to enhance positive collaboration between the private and public sectors.
• Private lessons to top up public primary and secondary schooling has become the norm, increasing the real (though hidden) cost of education in Georgetown.
• Educational microplanning in Georgetown is made complex by an institutional overlap between the role of the local planning staff and the Ministry of Education which administers the budget for Georgetown.
• Four secondary schools are normally under-subscribed and have spare capacity: Ascension Community High (10 spaces), David Rose Community High (50 spaces), Houston Community High (90 spaces) and Carmel Community High (60 spaces). This space capacity reflects the poor quality of education offered at these schools based on a lack of equipment for vocational subjects and a failure to either train or retain committed teaching staff.
• The Secondary School Rehabilitation Project was criticised for being superficial. Primary schools had been converted into secondary schools but teachers had not been given enough support in changing from primary to secondary subjects, teaching styles and managing student issues.
21 Map 5: Schools, Greater Georgetown
Source: Education Planning Unit, Ministry of Education verified by the Educational Officer for Georgetown.
22 APPEDDIX I: Loss Tables for Regions 3, 4 and Georgetown
Table 11: Loss Tables: Recorded Losses, 2000/2001
Age/ Combined Region 3 Region 4 Greater Class Regions Georgetown M E T M E T M E T M E T 4, N1 9 48 57 1 15 16 4 19 23 4 14 18 5, N2 3 52 55 0 14 14 2 17 19 1 21 22 6, Pa 3 30 33 1 3 4 0 11 11 2 16 18 7, Pb 6 33 39 1 3 4 2 8 10 3 22 25 8, S1 4 37 41 1 3 4 1 6 7 2 27 19 9, S2 1 48 49 1 3 4 0 5 5 0 40 40 10, S3 2 52 54 0 5 5 0 21 21 2 26 28 11, S4 3 52 55 1 2 3 0 10 10 2 40 42 12, F1 3 22 25 1 8 9 1 5 6 1 9 10 13, F2 3 17 20 2 4 6 0 5 5 1 8 9 14, F3 3 30 33 0 5 5 1 10 11 2 15 17 15, F4 3 22 25 2 4 6 0 2 2 1 16 17 16, F5 2 20 22 0 5 5 1 2 3 0 13 13 17, F6 0 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5
Table 12: Loss Tables: Rates per 1,000 population
Age/ Combined Region 3 Region 4 Greater class Regions* Georgetown MR ER TR MR ER TR MR ER TR MR ER TR 4, N1 0.9 5.2 6.1 0.4 6.3 6.7 1.1 5.2 6.3 1.2 4.2 5.4 5, N2 0.3 5.8 6.1 0 5.8 5.8 0.6 5.1 5.7 0.3 6.5 6.8 6, Pa 0.2 2.6 2.8 0.4 1.5 1.9 0 2.7 2.7 0.4 3.7 4.1 7, Pb 0.6 3.0 3.6 0.4 1.6 2.0 0.6 2.4 3.0 0.7 5.0 5.7 8, S1 0.4 3.3 3.7 0.4 1.7 2.1 0.3 1.7 2.0 0.5 6.5 7.0 9, S2 0.2 4.2 4.4 0.5 1.4 1.9 0 1.6 1.6 0 9.7 9.7 10, S3 0.2 5.5 5.7 0 2.5 2.5 0 7.3 7.3 0.5 6.7 7.2 11, S4 0.3 5.0 5.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 0 3.1 3.1 0.5 10.8 11.3 12, F1 0.3 2.4 2.7 0.4 3.6 4.0 0.3 1.6 1.9 0.2 2.0 2.2 13, F2 0.4 2.1 2.5 1.0 1.9 2.9 0 2.2 2.2 0.2 2.1 2.3 14, F3 0.3 4.0 4.3 0 3.0 3.0 0.5 5.2 5.7 0.5 3.8 4.3 15, F4 0.5 3.1 3.6 1.3 3.3 4.6 0 1.1 1.1 0.3 4.9 5.2 16, F5 0.6 5.5 6.1 0 6.1 6.1 1.8 3.6 5.4 0 6.8 6.8 17, F6 0 7.9 7.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23.8 23.8 *Calculated rates for the combined regions are the mean of rates for the three regions.
Age Specific Mortality Rate = (total deaths/total enrolment) x 1000 Age Specific Emigration Rate = (total emigrations/total enrolments) x 1000 Age Specific Total Loss Rate = age specific mortality rate + age specific emigration rate
To calculate number of deaths for each year cohort in the life tables: (total loss rate for a given year/1000) x total enrolment for a given year
All figures are rounded up from 0.5
APPENDIX II: Life Tables Based on Losses from Mortality Rates Only
Table 13: Combined Projection for Region 3, Region 4 and Georgetown
23 Age/ 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 class 4, N1 10742 ------5, N2 10316 10733 ------6, Pa 12547 10313 10730 ------7, Pb 12051 12544 10311 10728 ------8, S1 11314 12044 12536 10305 10722 ------9, S2 10454 11309 12039 12531 10301 10718 - - - - - 10, S3 9921 10452 11307 12037 12529 10299 10716 - - - - 11, S4 9989 9919 10450 11305 12035 12526 10297 10714 - - - 12, F1 9712 9986 9916 10447 11302 12031 12522 10294 10711 10769 10769 13, F2 8110 9709 9983 9913 10444 11298 12027 12518 10291 10708 10766 14, F3 7459 8107 9705 9979 9909 10440 11293 12022 12513 10287 10704 15, F4 6594 7457 8105 9702 9976 9906 10437 11290 12018 12409 10284 16, F5 3271 6591 7453 8101 9697 9971 9901 10432 11284 12012 12403 17, F6 291 3269 6587 7449 8096 9691 9965 9895 10426 11277 12005 Total 35146 41850 45162 48142 51328 53646 56180 56556 56817 56185 54926 12-16 Total 35437 45119 51749 55591 59424 63337 66145 66451 67243 67462 66931 12-17 Projected enrolments for 12, F1 in 2009 and 2010 are calculated as the mean of enrolments at 12, F1 from 2000 to 2008.
Table 14: Projection for Region 3
Age/ 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 class 4, N1 3780 ------5, N2 3785 3778 ------6, Pa 4267 3785 3778 ------7, Pb 3808 4265 3783 3776 ------8, S1 3684 3806 4263 3786 3774 ------9, S2 3263 3683 3804 4261 3784 3772 - - - - - 10, S3 3154 3261 3681 3802 4259 3782 3770 - - - - 11, S4 3052 3154 3261 3681 3802 4259 3782 3770 - - - 12, F1 2235 3050 3152 3259 3679 3800 4257 3780 3768 3033 3033 13, F2 2058 2234 3049 3151 3258 3678 3798 4255 3778 3766 3032 14, F3 1666 2056 2232 3046 3148 3255 3674 3794 4251 3774 3762 15, F4 1506 1666 2056 2232 3046 3148 3255 3674 3794 4251 3774 16, F5 815 1504 1664 2053 2229 3042 3144 3251 3669 3789 4246 17, F6 7 815 1504 1664 2053 2229 3042 3144 3251 3669 3789 Total 8280 10510 12153 13741 15360 16923 18128 18754 19260 18613 17847 12-16 Total 8287 11325 13657 15405 17413 19152 21170 21898 22511 22282 21636 12-17 Projected enrolments for 12, F1 in 2009 and 2010 are calculated as the mean of enrolments at 12, F1 from 2000 to 2008.
24 Table 15: Projection for Region 4
Age/ 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Class 4, N1 3613 ------5, N2 3316 3609 ------6, Pa 3968 3314 3607 ------7, Pb 3806 3968 3314 3607 ------8, S1 3485 3804 3966 3312 3605 ------9, S2 3092 3484 3803 3965 3311 3604 - - - - - 10, S3 2880 3092 3484 3803 3965 3311 3604 - - - - 11, S4 3238 2880 3092 3484 3803 3965 3311 3604 - - - 12, F1 3146 3238 2880 3092 3484 3803 3965 3311 3604 3391 3391 13, F2 2284 3145 3237 2879 3091 3483 3802 3964 3310 3603 3390 14, F3 1930 2284 3145 3237 2879 3091 3483 3802 3964 3310 3603 15, F4 1797 1929 2283 3143 3235 2878 3089 3481 3800 3962 3308 16, F5 554 1797 1929 2283 3143 3235 2878 3089 3481 3800 3962 17, F6 74 553 1794 1926 2279 3137 3229 2873 3083 3475 3793 Total 9711 12393 13474 14634 15832 16490 17217 17647 18159 18066 17654 12-16 Total 9785 12946 15268 16560 18111 19627 20446 20520 21242 21541 21447 12-17 Projected enrolments for 12, F1 in 2009 and 2010 are calculated as the mean of enrolments at 12, F1 from 2000 to 2008.
Table 16: Projection for Greater Georgetown
Age/ 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Class 4, N1 3349 ------5, N2 3215 3345 ------6, Pa 4312 3214 3344 ------7, Pb 4437 4310 3213 3343 ------8, S1 4144 4434 4307 3121 3341 ------9, S2 4099 4142 4432 4305 3119 3339 - - - - - 10, S3 3887 4099 4142 4432 4305 3319 3339 - - - - 11, S4 3699 3885 4097 4140 4430 4303 3317 3337 - - - 12, F1 4331 3697 3883 4095 4138 4428 4301 3316 3336 3947 3947 13, F2 3768 4330 3696 3882 4094 4137 4427 4300 3315 3335 3946 14, F3 3863 3767 4329 3695 3881 4093 4136 4425 4299 3314 3334 15, F4 3291 3861 3765 4327 3693 3879 4091 4135 4423 4297 3312 16, F5 1902 3290 3860 3764 4326 3692 3878 4090 4134 4422 4296 17, F6 210 1902 3290 3860 3764 4326 3692 3878 4090 4134 4422 Total 17155 18945 19533 19763 20132 20229 20833 20266 19507 19315 18835 12-16 Total 17365 20847 22823 23623 23896 24555 24525 24144 23597 23449 23257 12-17 Projected enrolments for 12, F1 in 2009 and 2010 are calculated as the mean of enrolments at 12, F1 from 2000 to 2008.
25 APPENDIX III: Life Tables Including Losses from Mortality and Emigration
Table 17: Combined Projection for Region 3, Region 4 and Georgetown
Age/ 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 class 4, N1 10742 ------5, N2 10316 10676 ------6, Pa 12547 10253 10611 ------7, Pb 12051 12512 10224 10581 ------8, S1 11314 12008 12467 10187 10543 ------9, S2 10454 11272 11964 12421 10149 10504 - - - - - 10, S3 9921 10408 11222 11911 12366 10104 10458 - - - - 11, S4 9989 9864 10349 11158 11843 12296 10046 10403 - - - 12, F1 9712 9936 9812 10294 11099 11780 12231 10019 10348 10581 10581 13, F2 8110 9686 9909 9786 10266 11069 11748 12198 9992 10312 10552 14, F3 7459 8090 9662 9884 9762 10240 11041 11719 12168 9967 10268 15, F4 6594 7427 8055 9620 9841 9720 10196 10994 11669 12116 9931 16, F5 3271 6570 7400 8026 9585 9806 9685 10159 10954 11627 12072 17, F6 291 3251 6530 7355 7977 9527 9746 9626 10097 10887 11556 Total 35146 41709 44838 47610 50553 52615 54901 55089 55131 54603 53404 12-16 Total 35437 44960 51368 54965 58530 62142 64647 64715 65228 65490 64960 12-17 Projected enrolments for 12, F1 in 2009 and 2010 are calculated as the mean of enrolments at 12, F1 from 2000 to 2008.
Table 18: Projection for Region 3
Age/ 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 class 4, N1 3780 ------5, N2 3785 3755 ------6, Pa 4267 3763 3733 ------7, Pb 3808 4259 3756 3726 ------8, S1 3684 3801 4250 3748 3719 ------9, S2 3263 3676 3793 4241 3740 3711 - - - - - 10, S3 3154 3257 3669 3786 4233 3733 3704 - - - - 11, S4 3052 3146 3249 3660 3777 4232 3724 3698 - - - 12, F1 2235 3047 3141 3244 3655 3771 4226 3709 3692 3413 3413 13, F2 2058 2226 3035 3128 3231 3640 3756 4214 3694 3677 3400 14, F3 1666 2052 2220 3026 3119 3222 3629 3745 4202 3683 3666 15, F4 1506 1661 2046 2213 3017 3110 3213 3612 3734 4190 3682 16, F5 815 1499 1652 2037 2203 3004 3096 3198 3595 3717 4171 17, F6 7 810 1490 1642 2025 2190 2986 3078 3178 3574 3694 Total 8280 10485 12094 13648 15225 16747 17920 18478 18917 18680 18332 12-16 Total 8287 11295 13584 15290 17250 18937 20906 21556 22512 22254 22026 12-17 Projected enrolments for 12, F1 in 2009 and 2010 are calculated as the mean of enrolments at 12, F1 from 2000 to 2008.
26 Table 19: Projection for Region 4
Age/ 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 class 4, N1 3613 ------5, N2 3316 3590 ------6, Pa 3968 3297 3570 ------7, Pb 3806 3957 3289 3560 ------8, S1 3485 3796 3946 3279 3549 ------9, S2 3092 3478 3788 3938 3272 3542 - - - - - 10, S3 2880 3087 3472 3782 3932 3267 3536 - - - - 11, S4 3238 2859 3064 3447 3755 3904 3243 3510 - - - 12, F1 3146 3228 2851 3055 3436 3743 3892 3233 3503 3343 3343 13, F2 2284 3140 3222 2846 3049 3429 3736 3885 3226 3496 3337 14, F3 1930 2279 3133 3215 2840 3042 3421 3728 3876 3219 3489 15, F4 1797 1919 2266 3115 3197 2824 3025 3402 3707 3854 3201 16, F5 554 1795 1917 2264 3112 3194 2821 3022 3398 3703 3850 17, F6 74 551 1785 1907 2252 3095 3177 2806 3006 3380 3683 Total 9711 12361 13389 14495 15634 16232 16895 17270 17710 17615 17220 12-16 Total 9785 12912 15174 16402 17886 19327 20072 20076 20716 20995 20903 12-17 Projected enrolments for 12, F1 in 2009 and 2010 are calculated as the mean of enrolments at 12, F1 from 2000 to 2008.
Table 20: Projection for Greater Georgetown
Age/ 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 class 4, N1 3349 ------5, N2 3215 3331 ------6, Pa 4312 3193 3308 ------7, Pb 4437 4294 3180 3294 ------8, S1 4144 4412 4270 3162 3275 ------9, S2 4099 4115 4381 4240 3140 3252 - - - - - 10, S3 3887 4059 4075 4339 4199 3110 3221 - - - - 11, S4 3699 3857 4039 4045 4308 4169 3090 3198 - - - 12, F1 4331 3657 3813 3993 4000 4259 4124 3059 3162 3822 3822 13, F2 3768 4321 3649 3805 3984 4991 4250 4115 3052 3153 3814 14, F3 3863 3759 4311 3641 3796 3975 4981 4240 4105 3045 3146 15, F4 3291 3846 3743 4295 3625 3780 3960 4960 4222 4087 3032 16, F5 1902 3274 3826 3725 4273 3606 3761 3939 4934 4199 4066 17, F6 210 1889 3252 3800 3700 4244 3581 3735 3912 4900 4170 Total 17155 18857 19342 19459 19678 20611 21076 20313 19475 18306 17880 12-16 Total 17365 20746 22594 23259 23378 24855 24657 24048 23387 23206 22050 12-17 Projected enrolments for 12, F1 in 2009 and 2010 are calculated as the mean of enrolments at 12, F1 from 2000 to 2008.
APPENDIX IV: SUMMARY OF A GUYANA EDUCATION ACCESS PROJECT (GEAP) ‘REVIEW OF PUPIL NUMBERS IN REGIONS 6 AND 10’, September 2000
CONTENTS
27
Acknowledgements
1 Introduction
2 Assessing School Capacity
3 Assessment in GEAP Project Area, Region 10
4 Assessment in GEAP Project Area, Region 6
5 Population Modelling for Educational Microplanning
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The fieldwork of this consultancy was conducted by Dr Mark Pelling over a 12 day period and included meetings with education officers in the Ministry of Education and GEAP/DFID project officers in Georgetown, and regional educational officers, headteachers, community leaders and GEAP project officers in the GEAP project areas in Regions 6 and 10. Many thanks to all those who gave of their valuable time and expertise to contribute to this report.
1. INTRODUCTION
The body of this report is divided into six sections, including this proem. In the next section planning norms are presented which are then used to guide the assessment of secondary school capacity. This is followed by an examination of future secondary school demand and capacity in the GEAP project area, Region 10. A number of methods for deriving projected student demand in 2005 and 2010 are appraised and a projection using the most appropriate method is presented. This demand is matched with current secondary school capacity and various scenarios and school locations for coping with increasing demand are discussed. In the next section secondary school provision in the GEAP project area, Region 6 is addressed. School demand and capacity for 2005 and 2010 are assessed using the preferred method identified in the study of Region 10, locational aspects of provision are also discussed. Finally, recommendations are made for the appropriateness of population models in educational microplanning in contemporary Guyana. All data used to calculate demand projections can be found in the Appendices.
28 2. ASSESSING SCHOOL CAPACITY
In this section planning norms to guide assessments of school capacity are set out. The material presented in this section was obtained from official documentation and from interviews with senior staff at the Education Planning Unit, Ministry of Education and Education Officers at the Regional Democratic Councils for Regions 6 and 10.
2.1 Planning Norms
The following norms demand to be considered when calculating capacity for secondary schools.
Enrolment Class Size: Minimum: 20 students Optimum: 35 students Maximum: 45 students
School Size Minimum: 200 students Optimum: 350 students: 2 streams 525 students: 3 streams 700 students: 4 streams Maximum: 1,050 students: 5/6 streams
Source: Meeting of The Senior Policy-Making Group Non-Academic Education Norms, Ministry of Education, Government of Guyana, June 2000, p 10.
Space Per Student Classrooms should provide at least 14.4ft² of floor space per student.
Source: Standards for the Design and Development of Secondary Age schools in Guyana, South America, MOE-SSRP (IDA/GOG) 1997, p1.
Distance/Catchment Maximum distance: 7km by foot, 20km by road transport.
Source: Educational Microplanning and School Mapping: A Technical Manual, Educational Planning Unit, Ministry of Education, February 2000, p19.
Definition of Classroom There has been some debate over the categorisation of non-teaching rooms when determining school capacity. Following discussions with the Chief Planning Officer, Permanent Secretary, and Chief Education Officer (Ag), Ministry of Education and with Regional Education Officers in Regions 10 and 6, it has been made clear that only standard classrooms should be considered when calculating secondary school capacity. Any laboratories or special teaching rooms should be excluded. There are three reasons for this decision. First, special teaching rooms are used by split classes in parallel with standard teaching rooms; for example a class may be split between those studying accounts (taught in a standard classroom) and those studying science or woodwork (taught in a special classroom). This means that special classrooms do not act as independent teaching spaces for the school timetable. Secondly, there are health and safety implications for using special teaching rooms as standard classrooms. Thirdly, special teaching rooms should be perceived by students as a place to conduct themselves as they would in a professional workshop or laboratory.
29 This element of the educational process would be undermined if special rooms were to be used as standard classrooms.
A Note on Terminology: Demand It is useful to define ‘demand’, which is used throughout this report:
Demand refers to the number of school places that are required to satisfy the requirements of the target population. In GEAP area Region 10, demand is equivalent to the total secondary school age population as it is assumed that all children will be attending school. In GEAP area Region 6, final predicted demand is equivalent to 75% of the total school age population to take into account high non- enrolment rates.
3. ASSESSMENT IN GEAP PROJECT AREA, REGION 10
3.1 Selecting a Baseline for a Secondary School Demand Projection
Three different baselines are considered here. The first draws regional data from the 1991 National Population and Housing Census. The second uses the 1999 GEAP Housing Income and Expenditure Survey. The third method develops a projection based on September 2000 nursery, primary and secondary enrolments. The methods are explained and reviewed for their accuracy and appropriateness as general approaches to obtaining projections for secondary school demand that can be applied in subsequent educational microplanning exercises in Guyana.
3.1.1 1991 Population and Housing Census Baseline This method is based on projections from the 1991 Population and Housing Census. From the census it is possible to extract the population of Region 10 and to break this down into single year groups from age 0 (before the first birthday) to 99. Projecting from this base line requires three kinds of data, all of which must be available on an annual basis for the population under study: total live births, deaths by age and inward and outward migration by age. Currently in Guyana data is available for total live births and deaths by age from hospital records and Regional Health Department annual reports. Unfortunately there is no formal record of migration flows at a sub- regional or regional level.
Despite the lack of migration data an estimate for projected population change can still be arrived at. By subtracting annual mean death rates to the previous years population for each age group the subsequent years population can be calculated for each cohort as they age. This has been done from 1991 to 2010 (Appendix 1 for data and mean death rates).
It should be noted that this test draws on data for Region 10 as a whole and not Linden Town. However, according to the 1991 Housing and Population Census, Linden Town makes up 85% of Regions 10’s population. Consequently, the test can be used as a guideline to population trends within Linden Town. As noted above, the test is further weakened by the absence of migration data. Thus the final projection takes only births and deaths into account. This is perhaps a more serious omission. The 1991 National Population and Housing Census indicates that both migration into and out of Region 10 are likely to impact on population trends over the medium to long term. At the time of the 1991 Population and Housing Census some 27% of
30 Region 10’s population had been born elsewhere in Guyana, and of the population born in Region 10, some 15% resided outside of the Region in 1991.
For this projection total annual births were collected from the Region 10 Annual Health Reports (1990-1999) and age specific annual death rates were collected from the Mackenzie and Wismar hospitals (January 1 1990 to December 31 1999). The mean number of deaths per annum for each age group from 1990 to 1999 were used as death rate estimates for 2000 to 2010. The population between the ages of 12-16 and 12-17 inclusive were thus calculated and summed for each year from 1991 to 2010. The results of these calculations are shown in Figure 1 and Appendix 1.
Figure 1: Secondary School Age Population (Age 12-16 and 12-17), Region 10, 1991-2010
8000
6000 Age 12-16 4000 Age 12-17 2000
0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Years
Data Source: 1991 National Population and Housing Census, Region 10 Annual Health Reports, Mackenzie Hospital Death Records, Wismar Health Centre Death Records
Figure 1 shows a fluctuating pattern of demand for secondary school places assuming 100% enrolment. Demand increases most rapidly between 2004 and 2009. Between 1999-2004 mean annual demand is 5,698 (minimum 5455, 1999; maximum 5,941, 1993), from 2004 to 2010 mean annual demand is 6,319 (minimum 5,691, 2,004; maximum 6,730, 2,009). This abrupt increase in demand should be viewed with caution and is influenced by stochastic variability. The data for live births per annum were consistently one or two hundred cases higher than the age cohort sizes recorded in the 1991 census (see Appendix 1). This suggests that live births were an over count or that population was undercounted in the 1991 census. The effect of this bias is to increase the age cohorts for age 0 from 1992 onwards. In 2004 the first of these larger cohorts have worked through to age 12 and are included in the summing for overall secondary school demand. By 2009 all secondary school demand is derived from the larger year cohorts. The drop in secondary school age population from 2009 to 2010 reflects an underlying fall off in birth rates suggesting that the downward trend will continue in the short-term, reflecting the overall cyclical pattern to the region’s population (for a discussion of birth rates in Region 10 see Appendix 2).
There are serious limitations on the confidence that can be placed on this method for predicting secondary school demand in the GEAP project area:
• Migration is not considered. • The regional health records and the 1991 census do not form a continuous data set, this may have led to differences in measurement opening the projection to error. • The data presented is for Region 10 and not for Linden Town.
Despite these significant caveats the analysis does show that population in Region 10 is fluctuating rather than in rapid decline or expansion and this is important for the planning of educational infrastructure.
31
We can tentatively conclude that there will be a small increase in demand from 1999 to 2005 with demand continuing to increase, reaching a peak at around 2009/2010 – notwithstanding changes in migration or other mitigating circumstances.
3.1.2 1999 GEAP Housing Income and Expenditure Survey Baseline From the 1999 GEAP Housing Income and Expenditure Survey it is possible to disaggregate total population by age group for Linden Town. This data set has the advantage of being more recent than the 1991 census but is weakened by its use of 1991 census enumeration districts as a sampling frame. This approach also excludes population residing in areas that had been developed since the 1991 census was undertaken. Discussions in Linden with community members and officers of the Regional Democratic Council suggested that some few hundred households, mostly from the south west of Linden Town (eg, One Mile and Half Mile settlements) will have been excluded from this projection.
Figure 2: Secondary School Demand Projection, (Forms 1-6 and 1-7), Linden Town (Partial), 1999-2010
5000 4000
3000 Forms 1-6 2000 Forms 1-5 1000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Years
Data Source: GEAP Household Income and Expenditure Survey, 1999; Death Rates calculated from Mackenzie Hospital and Wismar Health Centre annual records Despite this survey’s under-recording of population, it may still be used to indicate the direction of population growth and as a validity check to the findings of section 3.1.1. Figure 2, shows the results of a population projection that was calculated using the same methodology as that employed in section 3.1.1 (original data is in Appendix 3). From the 1999 baseline yearly age groups were identified and by deducting mean annual age specific death rates subsequent year group sizes were determined up to 2010. For each year (1999-2010) those cohorts falling between the ages of 12-16 and 12-17 inclusive were summed to provide the annual secondary school demand.
Figure 2 reinforces the findings of Figure 1. Both reveal a slow increase in the number of secondary school places that will be demanded in Linden Town up to 2005 with the rate of increase slowing towards 2010. Also, like Figure 1, Figure 2 does not account for migration flows and so should not be interpreted as an accurate predictor of secondary school demand in absolute terms, but rather as a useful indicator of the trend in future demand.
3.1.3 Current School Enrolment Baseline If we assume that current primary and nursery school enrolments are 100% of demand (i.e. that all children of nursery and primary school age are enrolled) then present enrolments can be used to predict future secondary school demand as successive age cohorts progress through the school system. Such an assumption is made in the Educational Microplanning and School Mapping Technical Manual. Furthermore, in the GEAP Household Income and Expenditure Survey it was found that 98.4% of 4-5 year olds attended nursery school and 91.2% of 6-11 year olds attended primary school in Linden Town suggesting that a projection based on current enrolment would at most underestimate total demand by 10%.
This is the only approach that can capture the GEAP target population and should be considered the most accurate and the method of preference.
32 It is more accurate than both the overestimated 1991 census baseline projection and the underestimated 1999 GEAP survey baseline projection. The projection, shown in Figure 3 (and Appendix 4), used a baseline of 1999 enrolment for primary and secondary level education. Primary top classes were counted as secondary. 2000 enrolments were available for nursery and Prep A primary, and these cohorts were also used. As with the previous projections, the demand for secondary school places was determined by the projected population of 12-16 and 12-17 year olds (forms 1-5 and 1-6), with actual enrolment figures used for 1999 and 2000. It was necessary to calculate the values for Form 1 in 2009 and 2010 and Form 2 in 2010, and this was done using the mean enrolment of preceding years up to 1999 for each class in question. For this reason confidence in the projection is lower for 2009 and 2010. The low total demand for 1999 is partly explained by the absence of Form 6 (year 17) students in the GEAP project area at the time of this assessment. The number of secondary school age students has been calculated up to 2010 for form 1-5 and form 1-6 groups.
Figure 3: Projected Demand, School Enrolment Baseline, Linden Town
6000
5000
s 4000 Forms 1-6 3000 Forms 1-5 Student 2000
1000
0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Years
Data Sources: Educational Planning Unit Annual School Returns, Regional Education Officer Region 10
The shape of the projection in Figure 3 is supported by similar trends in the two methods demonstrated above. Figure 3 is the only measure that can provide an indication of the size as well as the trend in future demand for secondary school places. Overall, it appears that there will be a steady increase in demand up to 2005 but that this may begin to enter a more undulating phase of demand from 2006 to 2010. As with the preceding methods, migration has not been factored into this model. Indeed, it should be noted that with each of the three methods there is an in-built bias towards a reduction in demand with time. This is the product of successive death rates reducing age cohorts in each subsequent year. For this reason, and because the 5-10% of children excluded from nursery and primary education in 1999 were not included in the projection, the projection should be seen as a conservative estimate of demand.
3.2 Capacity and Demand in GEAP Project Area, Region 10 (Linden Town)
Current secondary education in the GEAP area is provided by four secondary schools and six primary schools with secondary Tops. Under the GEAP project secondary Tops will be closed and provision concentrated in the secondary schools. In 1999 a little under half of all secondary students were on the roll of secondary Tops (55% of Form 1, 43% of Form 2, 44% of Form 3, 41% of Form 4, 5% of Form 5). The demand for secondary school places will also increase through the expansion of annual enrolments as all secondary school age children are offered secondary school places. The GEAP
33 Household Income and Expenditure Survey found that 21% of secondary school age pupils were not attending secondary school in 1999. Thus, as a rough estimate, expected additional demand for secondary school places would be in the order of 80-90% above current supply.
Figure 4 shows predicted increase in demand under two different scenarios and compares this with capacity, also under two different scenarios. Demand is calculated first for all students aged 12–17 (forms 1 to 6), and secondly, for students aged 12–16 (forms 1 to 5). The data on which these projections has been calculated can be seen in Appendix 5.
Capacity is projected based on the assumption that current school expansion plans under the GEAP project will be completed in 2000. (Figure 4 and both regional assessments are based on this assumption. However, actual completion of school expansion plans in 2003 will not alter the projections for 2005). This will increase availability from a current total of 2122 places to 3350 places. The breakdown of expansion works by school are:
• Christianburg Secondary School will expand from 800 to 1015 places, • New Silver City Secondary School will expand from 490 to 560 places, • Linden Foundation Secondary School will expand from 272 to 1015 places, • Mackenzie High School will expand from 560 to 760 places.
This is a total of 1775 places on the east bank (Mackenzie High and Linden Foundation) and 1575 places on the west bank (Christianburg and New Silver City).
In the first scenario it is assumed that a new, fifth school will be constructed with a capacity of 1050 places, giving a total secondary school capacity of 4400. In the second scenario it is assumed that secondary education will be provided by the four existing secondary schools, albeit in their expanded states with a total school capacity of 3350.
The rapid initial expansion in both demand projections from 2001 is the result of successive, undivided age cohorts entering secondary school education at Form 1. This assumes that students within the secondary top system in 2000 will remain in place, and only those students entering secondary education at Form 1 from 2001 onwards will universally attend secondary schools. The rate of transfer from the secondary top to the secondary school system will of course affect the gradient of this projection and must be harmonised with secondary school extension and construction.
Figure 4: Predicted Demand and Capacity, GEAP area, Region 10
6000
5000
4000 Four Schools Five Schools 3000 Need 12-17
2000 Need 12-16
Student Numbers 1000
0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year
Source: Educational Planning Unit Annual School Returns, Regional Educational Officer Region 10, GEAP project officer, Region 10.
34
Whether we assume demand to be based on the 12-16 (Form 1-5) or 12-17 (Form 1-6) age groups, it appears that four schools will not have sufficient capacity, even following extension and renovation works, to meet predicted demand. It should be noted that the projected demand is a conservative estimate, with up to 10% of demand concealed. Inadequacy in capacity is sustained from 2002/2003 to 2010 and beyond. Given the fluctuating pattern of the base population in Linden (Figures 1, 2 and 3) it would be unwise to interpret the declining demand from 2005 to 2010 as a trend that will continue. Without any large scale in- or out-migration (which have not been factored into these assessments) it is more likely that demand will fluctuate than decline in the long-term.
The predicted shortfalls in capacity are shown in Table 1. Demand projections are shown for both the 12 – 17 and 12 – 16 age groups. Capacity is based on the current extended four school system. Negative values for unmet demand show a surplus of school provision.
Taking the most conservative scenario, provision for Forms 1-5:
• Total demand is 4126 in 2005 and 3839 in 2010 • Unmet demand is 766 in 2005 and 489 in 2010, • Unmet demand is the equivalent of 22 and 14 classes respectively in 2005 and 2010.
If education is to be provided for Forms 1-6, • Total demand is 4744 in 2005 and 4682 in 2010 • Unmet demand is 1394 in 2005 and 1332 in 2010, • Unmet demand is the equivalent of 40 and 38 classes respectively in 2005 and 2010.
Table 1: Demand, Capacity and Shortfalls in Provision with a Four School System with a Staggered Entry 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 4 school 2122 3350 3350 3350 3350 3350 3350 3350 3350 3350 3350 3350 Capacity Demand 2158 2776 3051 3321 3723 4259 4744 4939 4875 4875 4853 4682 12-17 Unmet 36 -547 -299 -29 373 909 1394 1589 1525 1525 1503 1332 demand 12-17 Demand 2158 2261 2575 2918 3320 3906 4126 4139 4130 4080 3924 3839 12-16 Unmet 36 -1089 -775 -432 -30 556 776 789 780 730 574 489 demand 12-16
Planning guidance states that the minimum intake for a secondary school should be 200 students. With a minimum intake in 2005 of 766 and in 2010 of 489 this guideline is well met. This indicates that the construction of a new secondary school would be appropriate.
An alternative option for secondary school provision in the GEAP area was discussed during this consultancy. The third option is to refurbish and extend the existing New Silver City school:
• The present capacity of the school is 490 and this is planned to increase to 560. • Under this third option the expansion will go up from 560 to 1050 providing an additional 500 spaces.
35 This option is worthy of further interrogation. Three issues for consideration are:
• The additional capacity that this option provides will not meet demand in 2005, although it will for 2010. • The site is already crowded and is likely to fail the planning guidelines for space per pupil once the planned expansion for 560 students has been implemented, further construction on this already constricted site might be unwise. • The school lies in the path of the smoke plume from Linmine. Health risks are clear with large amounts of dust accumulating in the school. The health risk of this site alone is sufficient to caution against further expansion.
3.3 Locating a New Secondary School
Assuming that the data presented in Figure 5 and Table 1 are correct, there is justified demand for a fifth secondary school in Linden. This section presents the main arguments to be considered when reviewing the location of a new school in Linden. Arguments were identified through site visits and interviews with regional education officers, community leaders and GEAP project area staff. Four principal arguments were made and these are presented below:
• Loss of secondary Tops. Six primary schools that cater for secondary school demand will be lost in the amalgamation process. Four of these are located on the west bank. The enrolment for 1999 can be used to assess lost capacity from the two banks, this is presented in Table 2. A seventh primary school, Coomacka, with a secondary top of 53 students in 1999, is also included in the
Table 2: 1999 Enrolments in Secondary Tops, West and East Bank School and Location Total Enrolments in secondary forms, 1999 West Bank One Mile 283 Wismar Hill 290 St. Aiden’s 229 Christianburg Primary 116 Total 918 East Bank Mackenzie Primary 346 Amelia’s Ward 93 Total 439
GEAP project area, but is some distance from Linden Town and so was excluded from this analysis as it was assumed that students will have to travel to Linden regardless of the location of secondary provision within the town. Assuming that current provision of secondary Tops reflects population distribution, then the data in Table 2 supports a location for the fifth secondary school on the west bank, where 918 places will be lost in amalgamation, as against only 439 on the east bank.
• Recent and future changes in the geographical spread of population in Linden Town. Most recent expansion has been located in the south western section of Linden in the vicinity of Half Mile, One Mile and Victory Valley. New housing here is informal and no records exist to allow an estimation of population. A site visit and interview with community leaders suggest that growth is gradual with little impact expected on secondary school demand. An important future housing scheme is planned for Amelia’s Ward, to the north-east of Linden Town, with up to 3,000 lots to be sold by 2003. This development has been co-ordinated by the Regional Democratic Council and officers expect that the majority of new houses will be built by people already resident in Linden Town. It can be assumed that the development will pull some population from the West to the East Bank, although the scale of this movement can not
36 yet be estimated. Additional local demand for secondary school places will be partly, if not wholly, met by the relocation of the New Linden Foundation Secondary School, which is temporarily sited at Watooka in the south-east of Linden. Overall, population movements and growth have a variable and indeterminate impact on secondary school demand and siting priority.
• Costs of travel. Within Linden Town public transport is readily available and all areas (with the possible exception of some current students on the role of Coomacka School) lie within the planning maximum of 20km by road transport. Equity issues would support a site on the west bank which has a number of lower-income communities and who would be least likely to be able to bear the costs of public transport or of the ferry crossing on the River Demerara. Safety issues for students travelling between home and school are a consideration, particularly for those children who will have to cross the Demerara River.
• Community support. An important component of the GEAP project is to encourage local community support for schools as a mechanism to enhance project sustainability. It has been argued that higher-income communities will be able to offer more assistance to a secondary school in terms of skills, time and economic resources. It has also been argued by DFID that parents from lower-income families will be more prepared to send their children to schools located in higher-income areas, whilst parents of higher-income families will be less willing for their children to be on the role of schools in lower-income areas. These are important considerations and suggest that a school should be located on the east bank, possibly close to the current site of the Mackenzie High School. Land for a new school is not currently available.
Map 1 shows the location of all primary and secondary schools and also indicates the proportion of Linden Towns population on each side of the Demerara River.
Map 1: Linden Town, Schools and Population
37
38 Population data is from the 1991 Census and is likely to be an underestimation of population on the west bank by about 2%.
Map 1 supports the view that following amalgamation the greatest demand for secondary education will come from the west bank of the River Demerara. A site on the west bank will respond to the clear loss of provision which will result from the amalgamation of primary Tops and to the equity considerations of provision. Increasing demand on the east bank is likely to be met by the expanded and relocated New Linden Foundation Secondary School. Issues relating to community support are harder to resolve and this suggests that the fifth school should be supported by efforts to strengthen community attachment to the school and to facilitate the transfer of organisational skills into the host community though a community development initiative – GEAP has already invested in community development in Linden and an extension of this service to support the fifth school should be achievable.
4. ASSESSMENT IN GEAP PROJECT AREA, REGION 6
This section presents the methodology and findings of two assessments. First is an assessment of demand for secondary school places projected to 2005 and 2010. As part of this assessment the benefits of a new, fourth school for secondary educational provision are discussed. Secondly, the alternative strategies to meet predicted demand are reviewed. Data presented here came from national and regional educational data bases, interviews with Ministry of Education, Regional Democratic Council education officers and headteachers and was supported by interviews with GEAP project staff and the DFID Guyana field officer.
4.1 Projecting Secondary School Demand and Capacity
The following demands and capacity assessment follows the methodology developed in section 3. Demands projections were generated from a baseline of nursery, primary and secondary school enrolments for 2000. Two projections have been made. The first is based on the assumption that 100% of potential secondary school students will enrol in 2005 and 2010. The second, and most probable scenario, assumes that 75% of the secondary school age population will be enrolled in secondary school in 2005 and 2010.
4.1.1 Predicted Demand Based on 100% Enrolment In Figure 5, the total number of secondary school places required by year is presented (see Appendix 6 for full data). Enrolments for secondary school and primary Tops were combined to generate totals for secondary class cohorts in 2000.
Figure 5: Demand For Secondary School Places (forms 1-6 and 1-7), Based on 2000 Enrolments for Primary and Secondary Schools in the GEAP area
39 6000 5000 4000 Forms 1-6 3000 Forms 1-5 2000 1000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year
Data Sources: Counterpart to the Regional Officer (GEAP)
The steep rise in enrolments from 2000 to 2005 reflects the low number of 12-17 year olds currently enrolled in the region. As new cohorts enter secondary education from primary forms it has been assumed that drop out will be zero. The GEAP Household Income and Expenditure Survey found that whilst 93.5% of 6-11 year olds attended primary schools, only 55.6% of 12-17 year olds attended secondary classes. As with the assessment in Region 10, this projection does not include the 25% of students excluded from nursery and the 7% excluded from primary education and so should be seen as a conservative estimate of total demand.
Figure 6: Predicted Secondary School Demand and Capacity. GEAP Area Region 6
6000
y 5000
4000 Three schools Four schools 3000 Total need 12-16 2000 Total need 12-17
Total Need/Capacit 1000
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year
Data Sources: Counterpart to the Regional Officer (GEAP)
Figure 6 presents an extension of the above analysis (see Appendix 7 for full data). Demand is calculated for two scenarios, education to be provided for all 12-16 year olds in scenario 1, and for all 12-17 year olds in scenario 2. Figure 6 also shows the capacity for secondary school places that will be available if only the present three secondary schools are available and if a fourth school is made available.
Table 3: Demand, Capacity and Shortfalls in Provision with a Three School System with a Staggered Transition from Secondary Tops to Secondary School 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
40 3 school 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 Capacity Demand 1885 2534 2840 3222 3664 4135 4507 4622 4762 4774 4721 12-17 Unmet -215 434 740 1122 1564 2035 2407 2522 2662 2674 2621 demand 12-17 Demand 1885 2217 2471 2849 3267 3715 3858 3999 4011 3958 3853 12-16 Unmet -215 117 371 749 1162 1615 1758 1899 1911 1858 1753 demand 12-16
The predicted shortfalls in capacity are shown in Table 3 (base data in Appendix 7). Demand projections are shown for both the 12 – 17 and 12 – 16 age groups. Capacity is based on the current three school system. Taking the most conservative scenario (provision for Forms 1-5 only) unmet demand fluctuates but is 1615 in 2005 and 1753 in 2010, the equivalent of forty and fifty-five classes.
4.1.2 Predicted Demand Based on 75% Enrolment There is clearly much unmet potential demand in this region, if all secondary school age students were to enrol and attend school it would be necessary to provide two new secondary schools. But this scenario is unlikely given the high drop out and absenteeism rates in this region. There remains some doubt as to the principal causes of non-attendance and to the social and spatial distribution of exclusion. This is a major hindrance in recommending planning options which must necessarily remain flexible.
Is the high level of secondary school non-attendance principally the result of a lack of secondary school capacity, or some other factor? The 1999 GEAP Household Income and Expenditure survey indicates that ‘poor performance’, ‘employment’ and ‘marriage’ were the most frequently given reasons for non-attendance. An internal GEAP report entitled ‘Survey of why children leave primary Tops classes’ found 43% (27 from 63) respondents dropped out of primary Tops for financial reasons. The importance of non-supply factors on low school attendance is also supported by the higher proportion of students who drop-out of education from age 14 onwards (based on school enrolment records). This older group of students is most likely to be forced to leave education because of having married or needing to find income earning opportunities.
Available evidence indicates that lack of capacity is not the sole, reason for low enrolment and attendance. Reported reasons for non-attendance suggest that structural characteristics in the local economy (need for young people to work/lack of formal employment requiring school education) and society (young age at marriage for girls/women) are of overriding concern, rather than lack of secondary school capacity per se. This said, it would be unwise to place an overemphasis on the available survey data. The feeling of the local GEAP project team is that capacity remains a principal factor.
Without any clear evidence to the contrary, and with high contemporary dropout rates, it would not be reasonable to expect 100% of presently excluded potential students to enter education following the provision of new school capacity. A transition to greater inclusion is probable but is likely to be slow. Because of this a more reasonable scenario is that from the current base of 48% attendance (calculated as mean of attendance from ages 13-17, data from the Household Income and Expenditure survey), an increase of up to 75% of students enrolling in 2005 and 2010 can be assumed.
Table 4 shows the level of demand that would be expected based on the assumption that only 75% of potential students would enrol in secondary education by 2005/2010. Unmet demand is still high enough to warrant the consideration of the construction of a fourth school (full data in Appendix 8).
41 Table 4: Demand, Capacity and Shortfalls in Provision with a Three School System for 75% of Potential Demand in GEAP area, Region 6 Using Staggered Entry to Secondary School 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 3 school 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 Capacity Demand 1885 2371 2520 2711 2947 3199 3372 3427 3501 3481 3413 12-17 Unmet -215 271 420 611 847 1099 1272 1327 1401 1381 1313 demand 12-17 Demand 1885 2054 2151 2338 2550 2780 2887 2961 2941 2872 2764 12-16 Unmet -273 -24 151 418 667 686 794 899 908 869 790 demand 12-16
In Figure 7, demand at a level of 75% is predicted on the basis of a staggered entry into any new school from 2001 onwards and using the same method developed in the assessment of the GEAP area in Region 10. It is assumed that as new age cohorts move up from primary to secondary education all students will be catered for in secondary schools. The declining demand from 2008 reflects a general decline in school age population. Even with a staggered entry and for Forms 1 to 5 demand at 75% still supports the argument for a possible fourth school. .
Figure 7: Predicted Secondary School Demand at 75% and with a Staggered Entry, against 3 and
4000 3500 3000 Three Schools 2500 Four Schools 2000 Forms 1-5 1500 1000 Forms 1-6 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year
4 School Capacity, GEAP area Region 6 Data Source: Counterpart to the Regional Officer (GEAP)
The Life-table used to generate Figure 7 is in Appendix 8. At 75% of demand the expected demand secondary school places in GEAP region 6 for 2005 and 2010 are:
Demand from forms 1-5:
42 • Total demand is 2780 in 2005 and 2764 in 2010 • Unmet demand with three secondary schools is 680 in 2005 and 664 in 2010 • This is equivalent to 19 and 19 new classes in 2005 and 2010 respectively, based on a class of 35 students.
Demand for forms 1-6: • Total demand is 3199 in 2005 and 3413 in 2010 • Unmet demand with three secondary schools is 1099 in 2005 and 1313 in 2010 • This is equivalent to 32 and 38 new classes in 2005 and 2010 respectively, based on a class of 35 students.
4.2 Meeting Demand in GEAP Region 6
The GEAP project area can be divided into two sections (see Map 2). The eastern half of the area, from Tagore secondary school to Crabwood Creek, contains the area’s three secondary schools: Tagore Memorial, Skeldon Line Path and Skeldon High, and 67% of the area’s population (1991 National Population and Housing census). No contemporary data exists for population distribution or for rates of migration into, out of or within the Region, however, interviews with Neighbourhood District Council and Regional District.
Council officers suggest that any population expansion since the 1991 census has been by squatting and has been restricted to the already built up areas around Corriverton (Little India has approximately 62 lots, Little Africa has approximately 86 lots and Scotspool has approximately 10 lots) and Crabwood Creek (approximately 50 lots). A formal housing scheme by GUYSUCO is planned for Springlands, and due to commence in 2003. These post-1991 developments further increase the population density of the eastern half of the project area.
Map 2: GEAP project area, Region 6, Schools and Population Distribution
43
Contemporary school provision responds to this skewed geography of demand. Skeldon Line Path and Skeldon High School are within 7 km of the centre of Corriverton and Tagore memorial a little over 10km to the north of Corriverton. All are well within the 20km catchment limit in planning guidance The largest physical area of unmet demand lies to the west of Tagore memorial to the GEAP area limits at Joppa, also called Village 43. The present proposal is to locate a possible new school in Village 45, at the extreme north of the GEAP area in response to the lack of physical access in this half of the GEAP area.
Another option would be to increase the capacity of the existing secondary schools. Total current capacity is 2100. This could be increased to 3450 without exceeding planning guidelines. If the 75% level of demand is accepted then this becomes a realistic option. A maximum of 19 classes will have to be catered for. If spread evenly between the schools, 6 or 7 new classes per school will be required. This approach to provision has the advantage of flexibility. If new capacity is quickly consumed by latent demand then this would strengthen the argument for a new school. Flexibility also responds to the lack of evidence to show the distribution of poverty and exclusion from education within the GEAP area.
Given that all of the GEAP population is within 15km of a secondary school at present commuting to the existing sites is acceptable by planning guidelines. This weakens the argument for a new school at Village 45. There is no data to ascertain the spatial distribution of currently excluded children and without this it is not possible to argue that Village 45 represents an optimal location. It is as reasonable to assume that the majority population located to the east of Tagore Memorial (67% by the 1991 census) is under-served as it is to assume that the smaller population (33% by the 1991 census) to the west lacks provision. There are additional concerns that demand to be considered in deciding upon the best way of meeting predicted demand.
44 • Is it better to concentrate resources on improving provision within the existing secondary school system or to develop a new catchment area? • With the low attendance records of this area will attendance be increased by providing a new school or by extending provision at already existing locations? • Will potential students from the more densely populated east be prepared to travel to a new school in the west? • Would potential students in the west be more prepared to travel to new facilities in the east? • Would a new school located in the west have a knock on effect, bringing students in from the east and releasing capacity in the existing schools? If a new school located to the west of Tagore Memorial is likely to draw students in from the west (outside the GEAP area) then this will limit its ability to ease capacity in the existing secondary schools.
A combination of extending provision at the existing schools and building a school will be likely to appropriately meet the GEAP areas long term educational demands deficit. In the shorter term planners should review the assumption of the necessity for a new school and consider the possibility of extending provision at the existing sites.
If a decision is made to build a new school to the west of Tagore Memorial, then Village 45 is an appropriate location. In addition to serving that group of potential students that have furthest to travel within the GEAP area a school locate din Village 45 or its environs would also provide an educational resource for two under-served communities that lie outside, but adjacent to the GEAP area. Students from Eversham village presently commute over 7km to attend Central Corentyne High and students at Yakasari primary school have to make a similar commute to reach Black Bush secondary school.
An earlier proposal for a new school to be located at Leeds possesses many of the advantages of the Village 45 site in terms of provision within the GEAP project area, but will not contribute to increasing accessibility to secondary provision for students in Eversham or Yakasari.
5. POPULATION MODELLING FOR EDUCATIONAL MICROPLANNING
It would be advantageous if simple population models could be developed to help guide secondary school provision decision-making in the future. However, it is the opinion of this report that formal models would not yet be appropriate for educational microplanning in Guyana. The quality of data required for any formal modelling procedure is not available in Guyana. In particular the absence of any data on migration within Guyana or on any local level data on international migration reduces the validity of long-term population projections that might be derived from such models. Indeed, the apparent scientific accuracy that might be attached to the outputs of such models is likely to encourage their being given undue weight in microplanning exercises.
The most accurate and flexible source of demand prediction comes from present school enrolment data supported by local knowledge of population changes. Primary and nursery school enrolment is very high in Guyana. Over 90% in Regions 6 and 10 and data on annual enrolments is collected centrally by the Planning Unit of the Ministry of Education, making it easily accessible. Current enrolments are the best available guide to future secondary school demand. By adjusting for mean age specific death rates losses through successive age groups can be determined and school demand derived. Annual death rates between 4 and 18 are low, under 1/1,000 and if death rate data is not available it may be excluded. Appendix 1 shows the death rates used here which were calculated from Region 10’s annual health records. The principal weakness of this approach is that it does not take migration into account. Again the planner must turn to local knowledge to help interpret and refine aggregates projections. Where possible projections for demand based on current school
45 enrolments should be supported by projections based on Regional census data as explained below and demonstrated in section 3.1.2.
It is possible to project populations based on the 1991 National Housing and Population census using post-1991 annual birth and death rates available from regional health returns and hospital records. The methodology for such an approach has been described above. Despite the statistical validity of such a method, the use of a historical 1991 baseline demands to be supported by local knowledge on housing development (both formal and informal) and perceived patterns of population movement since the 1991 survey. The National Housing and Population Census is only useful as a direct guide to educational microplanning when the area under study coincides exactly with the area for which records have been kept. Once the 2001 Population and Housing Census has been undertaken more confident population predictions can be made at the Regional level. Health data records are kept at the regional level - and even here there will be some variability as residents cross borders to obtain medical services including the registering of births and deaths. Thus, projections based on extended census data should be used only for rough guidance when a project area is other than a region.
Please note that Appendices for this report have not been included in this summary. APPENDIX V: Population and Educational Facilities Distribution Maps for Regions 3 and 4
A Note on the Maps These maps were produced in October 2001 based on data collected in June 2001. The population distribution maps are original work. The schools’ distribution maps are based largely on maps used by the Educational Planning Unit and drawn by the Cartographic Unit of the University of Guyana. A number of minor amendments in the status and location of schools have been made to these maps in order to update them to June 2001.
Data on the maps were verified by consultation with local education planning officers in each region and in Greater Georgetown.
The population distribution maps are drawn from the 1991 National Population and Housing Census. Care should be exercised when viewing these maps. Population sizes and relative distributions are likely to have changed since 1991. The most important change since 1991 for education microplanning is in those areas that have grown in population at a greater rate than the surrounding villages. We have tried to indicate this on the maps by identifying those villages where new housing developments or squatter sites have been established since 1991. These villages have their populations shown in a lighter shading. Notwithstanding this, the size of population shown for these expanding villages is for 1991.
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47 Map 1: Population, Region 3
Data Sources: Village populations from 1991 National Housing and Population Census; sites of population growth identified by Regional Education Officers
Map 2: Schools, Region 3
48 Data: Ministry of Education, verified by Regional Education Officers
49 Map 3: Population, Region 4
Data Sources: Village populations from 1991 National Housing and Population Census; sites of population growth identified by Regional Education Officers
Map 4: Schools in Region 4
50 Data: Ministry of Education, verified by Regional Education Officers
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