50Th ANNIVERSARY ISSUE 1964–2014

Home , Baseball robot, Bill Oakley, Rugged smartphone

50th ANNIVERSARY ISSUE 1964–2014

SPACE MINING

YOUR OWN POWER PLANT

FOR THE TECHNOLOGY INSIDER | 06.14 PROGRAMMABLE MATTER

VIRTUAL HUMAN ACTORS

SELF-DRIVING CARS WEARABLE COMPUTERS

HOME ROBOTS

END OF DISABILITIES BRIGHT SCENARIOS FOR EIGHT OF TODAY’S HOTTEST TECHNOLOGIES PLUS WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG?

06.Cover.Int..indd 1 5/12/14 2:18 PM " Access to the right technology is key to creating an innovative design. It's great to be an engineer."

ENGINEERS START HERE. Research. Design. Prototype.

From data sheets to development kits & tools to components, Newark element14 offers what you need for every stage of your Featured Product: CSD19XXX series 100V NexFET™ MOSFETs design. newark.com | 800.463.9275 (11X3114)

06a.Cov2.NA.indd 2 5/7/14 12:28 PM FEATURES_06.14

IEEE SPECTRUM 1964 / 2014

SPECIAL REPORT the future we deserve

We don’t know precisely what the next 50 years will bring. But we have 29 an excellent idea of what will be possible, and we know what we hope will happen. So here are scenarios for eight of the most promising of today’s technologies. If they develop along the lines we describe, we’ll get the future we deserve.

30 The End of Disability

Brain implants and prosthetics will compensate for physical, emotional, and intellectual infirmities. By Eliza Strickland 36 Fewer Launches, More Space

Robotic mining and fabrication technology could take space exploration in a whole new direction. By Rachel Courtland 40 Infinitely Malleable Materials 54 The Rise of the 66 Beyond Words Personal Power Plant Programmable matter will allow us to conjure Wearable computers will let us sense the world physical objects that transform on demand. and express ourselves in entirely new ways. More people will opt for a “utility in a box,” with agile, By Ariel Bleicher By Philip Ball intelligent networks to link the plants together. By Jean Kumagai 46 Future Block 74 So, Where Are 60 Robot, You Can Drive My Car My Robot Servants? Pictorial If every idea in this issue comes to pass, our cities might look something like this. Self-driving cars will be safe, unobtrusive, and Programmable, multipurpose robots will invade our By QuickHoney efficient, but they’ll be easier to like than to love. homes—and domestic life will never be the same. By Philip E. Ross 48 Leaving the By Erico Guizzo Uncanny Valley Behind 64 As I See It 80 Someone to Watch Over Me

Computer-created actors in movies today could Photo essay Snapshots of the morning routine Fiction A case of unintended consequences for lead to new forms of entertainment tomorrow. and babyhood, circa 2064. a biomedical implant technology. Finlay By Tekla S. Perry By Dan Saelinger By Nancy Kress obin R : : t s

Styli On the Cover Illustration for IEEE Spectrum by Carl DeTorres p Pro

photograph by Adam Voorhes SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | north american | Jun 2014 | 01

06.TOC.NA.indd 1 5/15/14 12:28 PM Inﬁ nite Designs, One Platform with the only complete system design environment

NI LabVIEW is the only comprehensive development environment with the LabVIEW system unprecedented hardware integration and wide-ranging compatibility you need to meet design software offers unrivaled hardware any measurement and control application challenge. And LabVIEW is at the heart of integration and helps the graphical system design approach, which uses an open platform of productive you program the way software and reconﬁ gurable hardware to accelerate the development of your system. you think–graphically.

>> Accelerate your system design productivity at ni.com/labview-platform

800 453 6202

©2014 National Instruments. All rights reserved. LabVIEW, National Instruments, NI, and ni.com are trademarks of National Instruments. Other product and company names listed are trademarks or trade names of their respective companies. 17208

1720806a.p2.NA.indd Infinite Designs 2 Ad_US.indd 1 5/12/145/8/14 3:421:23 PMPM DEPARTMENTS_06.14TS_01.13

082111 Online News Resources Opinion Spectrum.ieee.org Big Data Comes to the Forest Radon Revealer Spectral Lines Videos of the Future When a tree falls in the forest these Turn an old webcam into On our 50th birthday, we can’t resist Meet Chris Harrison of days, everybody knows. a radioactive-gas detector. thinking about what the world will Carnegie Mellon and see the By Eliza Strickland By Ryan H. Griffin look like in 50 years—just as Isaac future of augmented reality; Asimov did the year IEEE Spectrum get inside the mind of Google 13 Accurate Quantum Computing 24 Profile: Danny Jones, was born. But can we do any better Glass pioneer Thad Starner 16 Breaking Through the Blood- Flight-Sim King than he did? By Glenn Zorpette [above]; and choose your own Brain Barrier 26 Cybersecurity Degree Courses questions in an interactive 20 Europe’s Smartphone 100 Dataflow: The Next 50 04 Back Story video with renowned physicist Supercomputer Years, as Envisioned by 06 Contributors Freeman Dyson.

nology Moviemakers 28 Technically Speaking ch e T

f o

additional resources titute s n I

eorgia G ; ; y Tech Insider / Webinars The Institute ph Available at spectrum.ieee.org/webinar Available 06 June at theinstitute.ieee.org ogra p o T smart cities This special issue of The Institute focuses on projects f Groundbreaking Smart Polygeneration Microgrid Project: o

e that are making cities smarter, more efficient, and maybe even happier.

c University Campus of Savona, Italy—5 June i IEEE is lending a hand through its Smart Cities initiative, in which members

Off The Use of High Performance Computing in Multiphysics Modeling—12 June Getting It Right the First Time: Three Ways Requirements Management Can Help work with cities such as Guadalajara, Mexico, to implement technologies Save Time and Money—17 June that can solve local problems. Federal Federal ss IBM Rational Smarter Products i Q&A w th the candidates Frederick Mintzer and Barry Shoop, who ; Swi ; are vying for 2015 IEEE president-elect, answer members’ questions and

ity http://spectrum.ieee.org/static/ibm-rational-smarter-products s IBM Rational Industry Solutions Library share their plans for the future of the organization.

niver http://spectrum.ieee.org/static/ibm-rational-industry-solutions-library U Wh ite papers evaluating research Gianluca Setti, vice president of IEEE

ung Publication Services and Products, explains why IEEE has issued new G http://spectrum.ieee.org/whitepapers guidelines for assessing the true impact of research articles. ang h /C iu L

i IEEE SPECTRUM L (ISSN 0018-9235) is published monthly by The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. All rights reserved. © 2014 by The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc., 3 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10016-5997, U.S.A. Volume No. 51, issue No. 6, North American edition. The editorial content of IEEE Spectrum magazine does not represent official positions of the IEEE or its organizational units. Canadian Post International Publications Mail (Canadian Distribution) Sales Agreement No. 40013087. Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to: Circulation Department, IEEE Spectrum, Box 1051, Fort Erie, ON L2A 6C7. Cable address: ITRIPLEE. t: Hao- t: f Fax: +1 212 419 7570. INTERNET: [email protected]. ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTIONS: IEEE Members: $21.40 included in dues. Libraries/institutions: $399. POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to IEEE Spectrum, c/o Coding Department, IEEE Service Center, 445 Hoes Lane, Box 1331, Piscataway, NJ 08855. Periodicals postage paid at New York, NY, and additional mailing offices. Canadian GST #125634188. Printed at 120 Donnelley Dr., Glasgow, KY 42141-1060, U.S.A. IEEE Spectrum circulation is audited by BPA Worldwide. IEEE Spectrum is a member of the Association of Business Information & Media Companies, the Association of Magazine Media, and rom le rom

f Association Media & Publishing. IEEE prohibits discrimination, harassment, and bullying. For more information, visit http://www.ieee.org/web/aboutus/whatis/policies/p9-26.html.

SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | north americaN | Jun 2014 | 03

06.TOC.NA.indd 3 5/15/14 12:28 PM BACK STORY_

Editor in chief Susan Hassler, [email protected]

Executive Editor Glenn Zorpette, [email protected]

Editorial Director, Digital Harry Goldstein, [email protected]

Managing Editor Elizabeth A. Bretz, [email protected]

Senior Art Director Mark Montgomery, [email protected]

Senior Editors Stephen Cass (Resources), [email protected] Erico Guizzo (Digital), [email protected] Jean Kumagai, [email protected] Samuel K. Moore (News), [email protected] Tekla S. Perry, [email protected] Joshua J. Romero (Interactive), [email protected] Philip E. Ross, [email protected] David Schneider, [email protected]

Deputy Art Director Brandon Palacio, [email protected] Photography director Randi Klett, [email protected] Associate Art Director Erik Vrielink, [email protected]

Associate Editors Ariel Bleicher, [email protected] Rachel Courtland, [email protected] Celia Gorman (Multimedia), [email protected] Eliza Strickland, [email protected] Assistant Editor Willie D. Jones, [email protected] Senior Copy Editor Joseph N. Levine, [email protected] Planting a Flag Copy Editor Michele Kogon, [email protected] Editorial Researcher Alan Gardner, [email protected]

Executive Producer, Spectrum Radio Sharon Basco hat’s it like to plant your feet in moon dust? Earlier Assistant Producer, Spectrum Radio Francesco Ferorelli, [email protected] this year, Associate Editor Rachel Courtland got a chance Administrative Assistants to find out. Ramona Foster, [email protected] Nancy T. Hantman, [email protected] Courtland traveled to Swamp Works, a laboratory intern Theresa Chong

at NASA’s John F. Kennedy Space Center, in Florida, to Contributing Editors Evan Ackerman, Mark Anderson, John Blau, Robert N. research a story on the future of space exploration for this Charette, Peter Fairley, Tam Harbert, Mark Harris, David month’s special issue. There she was allowed to step inside Kushner, Robert W. Lucky, Paul McFedries, Prachi Patel, Richard Stevenson, Lawrence Ulrich, Paul Wallich the facility’s Big Box—a glass-walled room packed with W Director, Periodicals Production Services Peter Tuohy 120 metric tons of powdered basaltic rock that stands in for lunar soil. Editorial & Web Production Manager Roy Carubia Senior Electronic Layout specialist Bonnie Nani The rock, waste from a mining operation in Arizona, was selected for its Spectrum Online moon-dust-like mechanical properties. The engineers and physicists at the Web Production Coordinator Jacqueline L. Parker laboratory use it to test robotic systems, and they let Courtland step inside Multimedia Production Specialist Michael Spector Editorial Advisory Board to see what it was like. Susan Hassler, Chair; Gerard A. Alphonse, Francine D. Berman, Though she was boldly going where no journalist had gone before, Jason Cong*, Sudhir Dixit, Limor Fried, Kenneth Y. Goldberg, Bin He, Robert Hebner, Chenming Hu*, Grant Jacoby, safety was on Courtland’s side. For one thing, true lunar regolith is replete Christopher J. James, Norberto Lerendegui, John P. Lewis, Steve Mann, Jacob Ostergaard, Umit Ozguner, John Rogers, with glassy, suit-shredding shards left by countless asteroid impacts and Jonathan Rothberg, Umar Saif, Gaurav Sharma, Takao Someya, never smoothed by wind or water. The “lunar simulant” at Swamp Works Sergio Verdú, Jeffrey M. Voas, Kazuo Yano, Larry Zhang*, Yu Zheng, Kun Zhou doesn’t have those sharp pieces, but it’s still considered a health hazard. * Chinese-language edition The dust particles are small enough to inhale deep into the lungs, and Editorial / Advertising Correspondence IEEE Spectrum they’re too big for the body’s immune system to dislodge. So Courtland 3 Park Ave., 17th Floor was allowed into the box only after being outfitted with a Tyvek suit, New York, NY 10016-5997 Editorial Department gloves, boots, and a battery-powered respirator. Tel: +1 212 419 7555 Fax: +1 212 419 7570 Bureau Palo Alto, Calif.; Tekla S. Perry +1 650 752 6661 Once inside, she took a few bounding, Apollo-inspired steps, planted an Advertising Department +1 212 705 8939 IEEE flag, and tried digging into the surface with a shovel. How did it feel Responsibility for the substance of articles rests upon the authors, not IEEE, its organizational units, or its members. to be in there? “Otherworldly,” Courtland declares. “Like walking on a Articles do not represent official positions of IEEE. Reader giant mountain of talc.” n comments will be posted online, or published in print as space allows, and may be excerpted for publication. The publisher reserves the right to reject any advertising.

Reprint Permission / Libraries Articles may be photocopied for private use of patrons. A per-copy fee must be paid to the Copyright Clearance Center, 29 Congress St., Salem, MA 01970. For other copying or republication, contact Business Manager, IEEE Spectrum.

Copyrights and Trademarks IEEE Spectrum is a registered zger t trademark owned by The Institute of Electrical and Electronics citing articles in IEEE Spectrum IEEE Spectrum publishes an international and a North American edition, as

Engineers Inc. Careers, EEs’ Tools & Toys, EV Watch, Progress, Me T. 06.14 indicated at the bottom of each page. Both have the same editorial content, but because of differ ences in advertising, page p numbers may differ. In citations, you should include the issue designation. For ex ample, Dataflow is inIEEE Spectrum, V ol. 51, Reflections, Spectral Lines, and Technically Speaking are

no. 6 (INT), June 2014, p. 84, or in IEEE Spectrum, Vol. 51, no. 6 (NA), June 2014, p. 100. trademarks of IEEE. Phili

04 | Jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG

06.Backstory.NA.indd 4 5/12/14 11:21 AM Agilent’s Electronic Measurement Group, including its 9,500 employees and 12,000 products, is becoming Keysight Technologies.

Learn more at www.keysight.com

06a.p5.NA.indd 5 5/9/14 10:55 AM 06.Contributors.NA.indd 6 06

CONTRIBUTORS_ |

J un 2014

| nort h ame ric a n “The simplestideaisalways the best,” says artist “I’m more of agraphic designer doingillustration,” fire was discovered, arsonbecameapossibility.” As inher story “Someone to Watch Over Me,” in this Wiseman. Shortly after beginningstudies for a from New York University. “It’s interesting to 6500 tiny steel ballson the floor andchair they wasn’t for him:“It was just too nerdy to me.” Opting working onaradio program for the BBC.“In the them 8hours to paint andstrategically place to craft andphotograph artisticmarvels. It took Princeton as well asamaster’s injournalism For the pastfive years, Voorhes hasbeen Patel isacontributing editor to IEEESpectrum. Hugo Awards, a John W. Campbell Memorial Award, Kress hasbeen writing science fictionand fantasy Ball holdsdegrees inchemistry andphysics Malleable Materials” [p. 40]. Working on four of certificate anddegree programs aimedat effects of technology ineveryday life. “Technology is eventually going to startbuildinginformation, each know how the other thinks.” In this issue,she writes about the emergence holds amaster’s inelectricalengineering from new jobs andeducationdemands,” shesays. novel, matter itself,” says Ball. he writes aboutprogrammable matter [p. 40], problems, he says. “It’s really fun because we projects together for this issueposedno he says. In this issue,hisclean,graphic approach is journal cybersecurity specialists[p. 26].Sheherself always adouble-edgedsword,” shesays. “Theday that degree inillustration, herealized the curriculum collaborating with his wife, stylistRobin Finlay, and a Theodore Sturgeon Memorial Award. and computation, into the buildingblocks of a topic hefirst covered adecadeago while and was aphysical sciences editor at the see how the proliferation of new technologies— allowed him the freedom to develop hisown style. since the 1970s, winning five Nebula Awards, two used in the openingphotograph for “Infinitely apparent inhisimageof digitaldoubles [p. 48]and in this case, IT andnetworking—brings with it issue [p. 80],sheoften writes about the unanticipated instead for adegree incommunication design information age,itseemsinevitable that we’re in three otherin three features. Adam Voorhes Prachi Patel Nancy Kress Philip Ball Ben Wiseman |

SP Yesterday’s Kin, will bereleased inSeptember. E Nature for many years. In this issue, CTRU M .I EEE .ORG Her next

06.14 +1 7325623998,[email protected] +1 7325625504,[email protected] +1 7325626017,[email protected]

+1 7325625320,[email protected] [email protected] +1 7325625596,[email protected] +1 7325623820,[email protected] [email protected] +1 7325623928 Nicole Ruchika Anand, Blanche McGurr, [email protected] Michael Buryk,[email protected] Marion Delaney, [email protected] [email protected], A. Roger U. Fujii (VIII);MarinaRogerU.Fujii Ruggieri (I (VII); Reder K. (VI); Wanda M. Wilamowski Bogdan Tel: +1732981 0060Fax: +1732981 1721 445 Hoes Lane,Box 1331,Piscataway, NJ08854-1331U.S.A. Stephanie White, Timothy Wong Siller,Curtis David Tian,Joel Trussell,Sharma, Leung Tsang, Pecht, Sorel Reisman, CharlesRubenstein, Tariq Samad,Gaurav Paolo Montuschi, Lloyd A. “Pete” Morley, William Moses, Michael David Hodges, Hulya Kirkici,KhaledBenLetaief, CarmenMenoni, David Allan Grier, GlennGulak, Lawrence Hall, Sheila Hemami, Bennett, Jennifer Bernhard, Stuart Bottom, Jean-Luc Gaudiot, Gianluca Setti, Chair E Vincent P. Socci (1);Parviz Famouri (2); J E M. Zurada, Technical Activities; Gary L.Blank,President, I Activities; Karen Bartleson,President, Standards Association; Jacek Services &Products; Ralph M.Ford, Member &Geographic Saurabh Sinha, +1 7325626843, [email protected] +1 2025308349,[email protected] +1 7325626343,[email protected] +1 7325025400,[email protected] +1 7325623850,[email protected] +1 7325625483,[email protected] Norberto M.Lerendegui (9); Toshio Fukuda Michael R. Andrews (6); Amir G. Aghdam (7);Martin J. Bastiaans (8); Kar IEEE St S SI SI Pr Vi Pa tr Pr ard of Pr IEEE A se Re m se S m R Mark Lis Int ieee B Re Ass IEEE M IEEE IEEE al Manag Te C C t ch C Ge Standard H mem Educat Publ aff e IEEE Di Re Di A A ozef W. Modelski SusanK.Land(V); (IV); x or e dv d d h h u EP llen J. Yoffa (I); Jerry L.Hudgins (II);Harvey A. Freeman (III); ileen M.Lach,+12127058990,[email protected] u ark ark c r v chn e s n n n cru cru g e n e e v v si ie ie ie m t e e isi en S.Pedersen (4); J. Derald Morgan (5); e a t cut si si oc R e e e i i i i p e B

s ract Pr an or or or ctor on f f f n b me Ope Publ St s i rt r r I ora ral al cat e e e on d d NT e Fi i m ess o ur e t t i nfor E i i i t t t aff Ex i c e e r & g & r t t at

e Res d d isi isi isi i A i ark ng nanc m Di Di e vans Gyimah e i i i v onal S me me nt nt rat ng ng ng e d i i Di C i ark i e a a e r r Manag s i on AL r v ngProduct ng ng e v & s c d oun d - Publ Di / d J.Roberto B. de Marca,[email protected] r A e E e nt nt e ourc John T. Barr Strat a & Pro Manag e e e

at e m e spe A

ctor E ct i e e ctor Re i Mark me s r l r on t Product Sal r ssis nt ogra i ct e e Sex +12122219595, ctor nt at A al Sal and l e i Anthony Durniak i t e e E cut t ng on i se Di

ct cru ct isi [email protected] v ctor r ctor s ctru i i s ducational A i Peter W. Staecker is F ng v O on off i e r es i

t e ax l Ce i off ; Publ Howard t tu S m i s e e ng ff v s h t e ie & i r ant e p s gy

e s v i ad e i o ie +12127058939 Shannon Johnston, SPHR ctor ; e is t Robert T. Ross t t h nt : +17324656444 s i

s r

e C John Baillieul,BabakBeheshti, Herbert r A Product , IEEE- c r t me & m i ie s

t , Publ

i ng Matthew Loeb, CA h Mary Ward-Callan v d i c e , Sal c Ilia Rodriguez, [email protected] mi Quinona Brown, [email protected] Konstantinos Karachalios on Sal e E i i grou s C i ie v on +17325626334 on r

e i is A c nt r ric Herz, Theodore W. Hissey S c DouglasGorham OO Manag is n r s ct f Thomas R.Siegert e

e h

e spe is

Patrick D. Mahoney Manag s

E or C cr e e se U r e James Prendergast i i ctivities; Gianluca Setti, Publication & o . Michel s s tra v S Alexander J. Pasik, Ph.D. c r p ad & r Product mp Liza Reich e i A at , IEEE S c t Mark photo-illustrations by i tary v ChrisBrantley

i on ie A al tor i i e v l on c d s r i e e e v anc

is t Cecelia Jankowski X C r g . 319 r s e s MarkoDelimar SimoneDarby, oord ); t t e

Felicia Spagnoli pe r

Anthony Durniak p Mary Faith H. Jeanty, isi Stephen Stephen Yurkovich(

t t roduct e i isi ctru s ng

E O ng

board

+1 2124197578

(10) ff ng i

Manag na E d i llen Randall (3); c m

i Di tor r e

/ e r r

ctor

e ctor e r EEE Gluekit

X -USA ) ) 5/14/14 8:48AM

touch the screen, can we feel the cat? Technology that simulates touch – a dream our software could bring to life.

Innovative thinkers everywhere use INDUSTRY SOLUTION EXPERIENCES from Dassault Systèmes to explore the true impact of their ideas. Insights from the 3D virtual world help companies develop technologies that use multiple human senses. Can we one day make a lion purr without entering the den?

It takes a special kind of compass to understand the present and navigate the future. 3DS.COM/HIGHTECH

06a.p7.NA.indd 7 5/12/14 1:26 PM SPECTRAL LINES_

predictions in the article, only four were indisputably accurate:

1. “Robots will be neither common nor very good in 2014.” 2. “By 2014, only unmanned ships will have landed on Mars.” 3. “As for television, wall screens will have replaced the ordinary set.” 4. “On earth…laser beams will have to be led through plastic pipes, to avoid material and atmospheric interference.”

The rest of the article is a mishmash of quaint yearnings and vague warnings. He thought by now we’d have a moon colony , underwater housing, moving sidewalks (what is it with “slidewalks”?), at least one fusion power plant, jet-powered hovercraft, home appliances powered by radioisotope “batteries,” and popular foodstuffs made The Pitfalls of Prediction from algae. He thought the entire area from Boston to Washington would be “a single If you’re married, you may have concluded city with a population of over 40 000 000.” that marking an anniversary is an opportunity Asimov would have had to live to 94 to that must be handled with delicacy and see whether his predictions panned out, imagination. And so it is for a magazine, too but alas, he died in 1992 at age 72. I’m not knocking Asimov. His envisioned his year is the 50th anniversary of IEEE Spectrum. A half century is a future wasn’t so much a likely one as a de- milestone that cannot go uncelebrated, but how to do it? Two of the standard sired one. If you looked at what was going approaches for a magazine’s commemorative issue are to take a fond look back- on then and assumed it would continue— ward or a bold look forward. The Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue, also 50 this and had the optimism to believe that future year, took the former tack, with a look at bikinis over the decades (it turns out advances would be applied aggressively to that they get smaller, they get a little bit bigger, and then they get smaller again). improve people’s lives or lift human civili- Forecasting is harder but more interesting. For our 50th, we wanted an zation in whatever way possible—you would inspiring and compelling view of the world of tech 25 to 50 years from now, end up with something like Asimov’s vision. Tbeyond the window of straightforward prediction. We And so we are coming clean at the outset liked the idea of making inferences, at least, about a fu- of this issue: What we describe is a desired future as distant from today as we are now from the year ture. Like Asimov did, we started with broad of the magazine’s founding. areas of major technological ferment. We We understood the risks. The Internet has made a picked eight of them, including autonomous minefield of the prediction business. It has long been ac- IEEE SPECTRUM 1964 / 2014 vehicles, wearable technology, and energy. cepted that any long-term forecasts you make about tech- We describe the state of the art today and nology will probably be wrong and might very well be comical. That’s true even if you’re likely near-term developments, and then one of the world’s smartest and most acclaimed futurists, as was Isaac Asimov [above]. sketch out a future in which things go well. It so happens that this year is also the 50th anniversary of Asimov’s legendary essay outlin- In other words, a future in which a string of ing his vision of the world in 2014. Written on the occasion of the 1964 World’s Fair in Asimov’s fortuitous events prevents a promising tech- /Corbis d beloved hometown of New York City, the piece is titled “Visit to the World’s Fair of 2014.” nology from being crushed by larger compa- And there’s mistake No. 1: There is no 2014 World’s Fair. nies, stifled by the status quo, sidetracked The anniversary of Asimov’s article has prompted a flurry of fatuous articles praising by swifter or better-connected competitors,

his prescience. But Asimov was actually rather off the mark. Of the two or three dozen choked by regulations, undone by unforeseen Feingol Deborah

08 | Jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG

06.SpectralLines.NA.indd 8 5/13/14 4:04 PM THE SPARK OF INNOVATION

R&D FUNDING PROGRAM The National Reconnaissance Ofﬁ ce Director’s Innovation Initiative (DII) Program funds cutting-edge scientiﬁ c research in a high-risk, high-payoff environment to discover innovative concepts and creative ideas that transform overhead intelligence capabilities and systems for future national security intelligence needs. The program seeks out the brightest minds and breakthrough technologies from industry, academia, national laboratories, and U.S. government agencies.

Visit the DII website for program history, frequently asked questions, proposal guidance, and Broad Agency Announcement and Government Sources Sought Announcement requirements.

http://dii7.westfields.net

06a.p9.NA.indd 9 5/7/14 12:33 PM 06.14

problems, or shunted into oblivion by pub- ten about this edition, it will live on as a kind • a pocket device that can shoot photos and lic misunderstanding, apathy, or ignorance. of gift to our successors at IEEE Spectrum in video, store a huge music collection, and let A desired future may inevitably be an 2064, who will be charged with coming up its user converse or exchange text and images unlikely one. But it’s enlightening, maybe with material for the 100th anniversary is- with another person anywhere on Earth; even beneficial, to think about it now, and to sue. It’s hard to imagine that the centennial • machines that can quickly and cheaply identify the kinds of things that would have edition of IEEE Spectrum will be available on determine a person’s genome; and to happen for that future to come to pass. printed paper. It’s even harder to imagine • space telescopes that have discovered You might ask, Why not portray the world that the centennial issue of Sports Illustrated’s thousands of planets outside our solar system— of 25 to 50 years from now as fiction? And, swimsuit edition won’t be available in 3-D and that will soon be able to determine the indeed, we’ve done that, too. We are de- virtual reality. But surely even in 1964 there composition of a planet’s atmosphere as well. lighted to include here an original story by were visionaries who believed that, at this And so, 50 years from now, staffers atIEEE Nancy Kress, “Someone to Watch Over Me.” point in the 21st century, we’d have moved Spectrum might very well smile indulgently It grippingly portrays how one very prom- beyond ink printed on pulped trees. at our hopes for shared autonomous cars, ising technology, implantable electronics, Had Asimov lived, he would probably bioelectronic cures for disability, and a co- might be hideously misused. Kress’s is one have been disappointed by the fact that we herent strategy for space exploration. But of six sci-fi stories that we commissioned have no permanent habitat on the moon, no they will surely have other things, every bit especially for our anniversary, from some of nuclear-powered home appliances, and no as marvelous. Probably more so. the top sci-fi writers working today. The full significant human habitation under the sea. I’ll have to live to be 102 to find out if complement, including pieces by Greg Egan, But that disappointment would undoubt- they do. To my successor I offer this advice: Brenda Cooper , and Geoffrey Landis, will be edly dissolve in his delight at what we do Make your predictions bold. And set them collected in an e-book later this year. have. That tally might start with so far in the future that you won’t live In publishing this issue, we have to admit • a fast, easily accessible, planet-spanning long enough to see whether they pan out. to an ulterior motive. After you’ve all forgot- data network; —Glenn Zorpette

Six-Axis Force/Torque Sensors

1/2 horizontal

Standard Features Six Axes of Force/Torque Sensing (Fx Fy Fz Tx Ty Tz) • High Overload Protection Interfaces for Ethernet, PCI, USB, EtherNet/IP, PROFINET, CAN, and more Sizes from 17 mm – 330 mm diameter • Radiation-Tolerant models available Available in Non-Ferrous Grade 5 Titanium • Custom sensors available

Applications www.ati-ia.com/ift Product Testing • Biomedical Research • Finger Force Research +1 919.772.0115 Rehabilitation Research • ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) Teleoperation • Haptics • Robotics

06.SpectralLines.NA.indd 10 5/13/14 4:04 PM 20 000 km 2

amount of forest losT in Indonesia in 2011

When a tree falls in the forest Watching the Woods: A new these days, it doesn’t just make a mapping tool uses satellite imagery to keep Big Data Comes an eye on the world’s forests from above. sound—it causes a computer program to generate an alert that’s sent out to activists, researchers, and environmen- to the Forest tal policymakers around the planet. An online tool to map deforestation is applying big-data techniques to massive troves of satellite imagery, and es

g Activists keep watch

ma in the process it is making possible a new kind of environmental activism. I

y on global forest loss with tt The tool, Global Forest Watch, was launched by the World Resources

/Ge Google Earth Engine

el Institute in February to provide monitoring of deforestation. Users can t an

M explore the global map to see trends since the year 2000 and can zoom

d in to examine forest loss at a resolution of 30 meters. The tropical zones

om: Davi om: of the map are refreshed every 16 days, frequently enough to track defor- tt estation hot spots in places like Indonesia and Brazil. Users can also sign o; Bo o; t up for alerts, which are generated when the system detects signs of illegal ho P logging or slash-and-burn agriculture in the tropics. ock ock t The site is powered by Google Earth Engine, which crunches image data

Top: is Top: drawn from several NASA and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) satellites.

SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | north american | Jun 2014 | 11

06.News.NA.indd 11 5/15/14 11:22 AM Google is developing this platform to host the satellites’ visible light and infrared data. With Earth Engine, however, researchers petabytes of earth science data and to give Each pixel of satellite imagery is character- simply use a programming interface to en- researchers a straightforward way to use it. ized by both its color and its infrared sig- ter their queries, which get “parallelized” “They log on, access all the data, and run their nature, and the algorithms then compare automatically, Thau says. own algorithms,” explains David Thau, the the data for that pixel across time to detect By creating the Global Forest Watch web- senior developer advocate for Google Earth changes. A switch from green to brown, for site, the World Resources Institute aims to Engine. Thau and his colleagues work with example, is a bad sign. Hansen pioneered give the public access to all that big data too. scientists to develop useful analysis functions, this technique in his earlier research on the Dan Hammer, chief data scientist at the or- and then they “get out of the way,” he says, and Congo Basin, where the ground was very of- ganization’s Data Lab, says he expects that let researchers conduct their investigations. ten obscured by clouds. Rather than throw government agencies, businesses, research- Google Earth Engine is currently available to out the cloudy images, Hansen developed ers, and advocacy groups will use the site to thousands of research partners, and the com- ways to create composite pictures using get a better picture of forest management. pany plans a general release down the line. many days’ worth of images. “We learned At the environmental action group Rain Global Forest Watch is the result of a con- how to work pixel by pixel,” he says. forest Action Network, agribusiness cam- vergence of projects. The World Resources When Landsat data became available at no paigner Gemma Tillack says the new tool may Institute’s Data Lab had been working on a charge in 2008, Hansen worked with Google be particularly useful in Indonesia, where forest-clearing-alert system for the tropics Earth Engine to apply his model globally, look- rain forests are falling to make way for palm based on data from the MODIS (Moderate ing at 143 billion pixels with 30-meter resolu- oil plantations. Her group is asking 20 big Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), in- tion. By tracking the pixels over months and food corporations to guarantee that the palm struments that ride aboard NASA’s Terra and years, the model corrects for seasonal chang- oil used in their products is being grown on Aqua satellites. Meanwhile, Matthew Hansen, es to forests and can distinguish between legal, sustainable plantations. Some com- a professor of geographical sciences at the crops and woodlands. The collaborators pub- panies are establishing responsible palm oil University of Maryland, had been collabo- lished their results last November, revealing procurement policies, she says, and Global rating with Google Earth Engine on a global a net loss of 1.5 million square kilometers of Forest Watch could help them implement map of deforestation; his project used images forest between 2000 and 2012. Those calcu- those policies. “They need to find out where from the Landsat satellites operated by NASA lations, the researchers noted, took 1 million the palm oil they’re buying is coming from, and the USGS. Both data sets are now used to CPU-core hours on 10 000 computers. and then they’ll need to monitor the actions create Global Forest Watch; MODIS provides Thau says that Google Earth Engine aims of their supply-chain partners,” she says. better temporal resolution, while Landsat to take the pain out of this big-data research. Time will tell if the site will make any dif- provides exemplary spatial resolution. In typical cloud computing, he says, reference in the seemingly inexorable advance The researchers’ algorithms create the searchers have to manage the distribution of bulldozers, but Hammer is optimistic. site’s dramatic map of forest loss using of their computing tasks across the network. “I’m consistently surprised by how much open access to data can fix things in the world,” he says. Many policy decisions are delayed by argu- ments over conflicting information, Hammer notes, but the objective data provided by Global Forest Watch has the potential to eliminate such confusion. “That would let people get to the hard questions about what should be going on in the forests rather than what is going on,” he says. —eliza strickland

A version of this article appeared

online in April. ch t Wa t trouble in indonesia: Global Forest Watch shows deforestation in Indonesia, al Fores al

where land is often cleared for palm oil b

plantations. Glo

12 | Jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG

06.News.NA.indd 12 5/15/14 11:22 AM Very Correct Qubits: A superconducting circuit could lead to practical quantum computing by allowing for error-correction algorithms.

information exactly. Any attempt to do so disrupts the computation. But quantum- computing pioneer Peter Shor discovered that there’s a way around this problem. The quantum information of one qubit can be spread across multiple qubits—hundreds or even thousands—that share a quantum connection called entanglement. Quantum error-correction codes take advantage of these other qubits to uncover the errors without really resorting to copying the value of the original qubit. Most quantum error-correction schemes involve very simple classical processing but require quantum logic operations with an accuracy of more than 99.999 percent. But one method, known as surface code, can get away with a lower accuracy threshold of 99 percent by shifting much more of the Amazingly scheme’s complexity to the classical processing. An experimental system detailed recently in Nature demonstrated the first Accurate Quantum surface-code architecture to achieve that needed 99 percent accuracy. “We made a significant advance in the Computing fidelity that brought it to this important limit, and we did it in such a way that we A new error-correction system could finally put know how we’re going to scale up to more these machines within reach and more qubits,” says one of the prototype’s creators, John Martinis, a professor of physics at the University of California, For quantum computing to ever fulfill its promise, it will have Santa Barbara. to deal with errors. That’s been a real problem until recently, be- Martinis and his colleagues used super- cause although scientists have come up with error-correction conducting quantum circuits that represent codes, the quantum machines available couldn’t use them. Now one of several possible hardware architec- researchers have finally created a small quantum-computing array that for the tures for quantum-computing systems. The first time performs with enough accuracy to allow for error correction, paving qubits themselves are Josephson junctions— the way toward practical machines that could outperform ordinary computers. two layers of superconductor separated by Today’s classical computers perform calculations using bits, which can a thin insulating layer. be either 1 or 0. Quantum computers get their potentially amazing ability to By creating an arrangement of five qubits make many simultaneous calculations by using quantum bits, or qubits, which in a line, the researchers showed that they can exist as both 1 and 0 at the same time. The challenge is that such systems could perform the logic operations at the must use error correction to preserve the fragile quantum states of qubits long heart of modern computing with an accurac y enough to run calculations. of 99.92 percent for a quantum logic gate Error correction in the quantum world is much stranger than in classical involving one qubit and 99.4 percent for computing. In classical computing you can simply make multiple copies a quantum logic gate involving two qubits. ucero

L of a bit at any stage in a calculation, and if the original goes afoul, you just “The surface code tolerates a lot of error rik rik

E use the copies to restore it. But physics doesn’t allow you to copy quantum and doesn’t ask much from the hard-

news

SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | north american | Jun 2014 | 13

06.News.NA.indd 13 5/15/14 11:22 AM VERIFY AND OPTIMIZE YOUR DESIGNS WITH COMSOL MULTIPHYSICS®

MICROWAVE HEATING: Model of a microwave oven. Simulation results show the temperature and electric ﬁ eld distribution in the food. Multiphysics tools let you build simulations that accurately replicate the important characteristics of your designs. The key is the ability to include all physical e ects that exist in the real world.

To learn more about COMSOL Multiphysics, visit www.comsol.com/introvideo

Product Suite

COMSOL Multiphysics

ELECTRICAL FLUID AC/DC Module CFD Module MULTIPURPOSE INTERFACING RF Module Mixer Module Optimization Module LiveLink™ for MATLAB® Wave Optics Module Microﬂ uidics Module Material Library LiveLink™ for Excel® MEMS Module Subsurface Flow Module Particle Tracing Module CAD Import Module Plasma Module Pipe Flow Module ECAD Import Module Semiconductor Module Molecular Flow Module LiveLink™ for SolidWorks® LiveLink™ for SpaceClaim® MECHANICAL CHEMICAL LiveLink™ for Inventor® Heat Transfer Module Chemical Reaction Engineering Module LiveLink™ for AutoCAD® Structural Mechanics Module Batteries & Fuel Cells Module LiveLink™ for Creo™ Parametric Nonlinear Structural Materials Module Electrodeposition Module LiveLink™ for Pro/ENGINEER® Geomechanics Module Corrosion Module LiveLink™ for Solid Edge® Fatigue Module Electrochemistry Module File Import for CATIA® V5 Multibody Dynamics Module Acoustics Module

© Copyright 2014 COMSOL. COMSOL, COMSOL Multiphysics, Capture the Concept, COMSOL Desktop, and LiveLink are either registered trademarks or trademarks of COMSOL AB. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners, and COMSOL AB and its subsidiaries and products are not afﬁ liated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or supported by those trademark owners. For a list of such trademark owners, see www.comsol.com/trademarks

06a.p14.INT.indd 14 5/8/14 1:44 PM VERIFY AND OPTIMIZE YOUR DESIGNS WITH COMSOL MULTIPHYSICS®

To learn more about COMSOL Multiphysics, visit www.comsol.com/introvideo

Product Suite

COMSOL Multiphysics

06a.p14.INT.indd 15 5/8/14 1:44 PM ware,” says Austin Fowler, a Still, researchers must con- staff scientist at UCSB who also tinue to improve accuracy Brea ching worked on the quantum error- rates before they can achieve correction device. highly reliable quantum com- the Blood-Brain The USCB team’s success with putations, which may still using surface code on a linear require 1000 or even 10 000 array of qubits could lead to a physical qubits to encode a Barrier full 2-D grid of qubits capable of single logical qubit. The idea making important calculations. of connecting thousands of Redesigned ultrasound machines The qubits would be arranged qubits without causing inter- could help important drugs reach in a checkerboard pattern ference among neighboring brain cells where “white squares” would qubits also presents a huge en- hold data qubits for performing gineering challenge, though operations and “black squares” one that doesn’t run afoul of There’s a barrier in your brain. would contain measurement any physics. Composed of very densely packed cells qubits that detect and correct “The physics of coupling and in the capillary walls, it restricts the pas- errors in the neighboring data control is not going to change,” sage of substances of the wrong size or qubits. In this setup, the sur- says Rami Barends, a postdoc- chemistry from the bloodstream. Like a locked fence face code can indirectly mea- toral fellow in physics at UCSB. around your home, the blood-brain barrier prevents sure possible errors in the data “But what you’ll have to come intruders—such as infective bacteria—from entering. qubits without disturbing their up with is the wiring and con- But a locked fence can also keep out rescuers in an delicate quantum states. trol done in a 2-D system with- emergency, and the blood-brain barrier keeps out po- IBM researchers have also out hampering the fidelity.” tentially helpful drugs that might be able to ease the suf- done pioneering work in mak- The next step for the UCSB fering of the tens of millions of people with Alzheimer’s ing surface-code error correction team is to run simple error- disease, Parkinson’s disease, multiple sclerosis, amyo- work with superconducting qu- correction experiments—a huge trophic lateral sclerosis, and other diseases of the cen- bits. In research posted online to first for the quantum-computing tral nervous system. Less than 5 percent of the roughly the arXiv repository last Novem- field. Previously, research- 7000 available drugs can get through. Basically, none ber, one IBM group demonstr ated ers showed how to correct of the large-molecule drugs can, severely limiting the a smaller three-qubit system ca- big errors that were deliber- options for new therapies. pable of running surface code, ately inject ed into quantum- But there’s hope. Blasts of ultrasound can temporar- although that system had a lower computing arrays. But the UCSB ily open the barrier in tightly focused spots of the brain accuracy—94 percent. researchers want to show how that are just millimeters in diameter. And engineers at “Both our result and the one to correct for natural errors Chang Gung University, in Taiwan, have recently come from UCSB are showing the that arise in the course of real up with a much improved way of delivering that energy. promise for superconducting quantum-computing opera- The prototype device they developed is a 256-channel qubits, and that architectural tions. A combination of im- ultrasound phased array. According to electrical engi- and engineering challenges proved accuracy and rigorous neering professor Hao-Li Liu, his team has developed lie ahead of us and should be- error correction could eventu- a unique circuit design involving multiple micro gin to be addressed to get to- ally realize the dream of practi- controllers and power-sensing feedback circuits that ward a fault-tolerant quantum cal quantum computers. enable the system to deliver two frequencies at once computer,” says Jerry Chow, a “We have all the require- instead of the single frequency that biomedical research- research staff member at IBM’s ments for starting to tackle ers have been working with. By altering the phase of Thomas J. Watson Research Cen- error correction for the first individual channels, the array produces millimeters- ter, in Yorktown Heights, N.Y. time,” says Julian Kelly, a grad- wide spots of ultrasound energy that can be electroni- Improved accuracy for super uate student in physics at UCSB. cally steered to any point in the brain. conducting qubits makes the “People have gone through the It’s been known for a while that ultrasound revers- technology a serious rival of motions before, but there has ibly opens the blood-brain barrier, even if the exact other quantum-computer sys- never been a practical way of workings haven’t quite been nailed down. The pro- tems, such as the use of trapped reducing errors in the system.” cess relies on the acoustic cavitation effect, which is ions as qubits. —jeremy hsu the growth and collapse of microbubbles in a liquid

news

16 | Jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG

06.News.NA.indd 16 5/15/14 11:22 AM Delcross_Ripples_IEEESpectrum_May_2014_submission.pdf 1 5/9/2014 3:08:05 PM We’re making waves

CMY

K With the world's most advanced EM and RF simulation software, it's no wonder we're getting noticed.

From concept to design to ﬁelded solutions, Delcross has the tools to help you ride the wave of success. Our Savant software rapidly solves installed antenna problems too large for other electromagnetic solvers to address. With GPU acceleration in Savant, the power of a cluster can be realized for the price of a consumer grade video card. Using our EMIT software, you can extend your analysis beyond the antenna ports to tackle your toughest RF coexistence and link margin analysis problems. And with our new Signa software, you can predict radar signatures of large targets with ease. We provide unique solutions for your most challenging problems.

www.delcross.com 217 .363.3396

06a.p17.NA.indd 17 5/12/14 1:29 PM window in the brain: A 256-channel In tests using pigs—which have a similar frequency is primarily determined by its size, ultrasound array [right] has been tested on a pig. skull thickness to that of humans—the por- so more frequencies means more bubbles The array could electronically steer ultrasound energy to open the blood-brain barrier and allow tion of the brain the researchers were aim- of different sizes are affected. a substance [above, in red] to enter the brain. ing for took up 10 times as much of a test Liu hopes that a clinical trial involving dye under the influence of ultrasound as it the 256-channel ultrasound system could under the influence of an ultrasonic field. would have otherwise. They operated the be launched within three years after gain- (Microbubbles are inject ed as a contrast array to produce either 400 kilohertz energy, ing the support of neurologists. What might agent to enhance ultrasound imaging.) This 600 kHz (an “ultraharmonic” of 400 kHz), help to achieve that goal is a solution to effect generates an acoustic shock wave, or both at once. The dual frequency pro- the problem of real-time feedback. “After which causes the cells in the blood vessel duced the best results—nearly double what focused ultrasound energy is delivered to walls—called endothelial cells—to deform. the single frequency delivered without caus- the target position, we can’t make sure if “Like mimosa leaves, endothelial cells ing damage. “Of course, the performance the blood-brain barrier is open. We can only contract after being shocked, thereby gen- of different drugs vary,” Liu says. have an answer postoperationally by using erating gaps. The result increases the pos- Elisa Konofagou, associate professor contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance im- sibility of drug delivery,” Liu says, adding of biomedical engineering and radiology aging technology,” Liu says. His team and that other cells outside the ultrasound’s at Columbia University, in New York City, others have been looking for possible solu- focal point are undisturbed. Doctors can who studies the mechanics of focused ultra tions to the problem. deliver drugs for about 1 to 2 hours, after sound’s effects, is concerned that the Chang According to research led by Kullervo which the gaps close. Gung group might not be able to improve Hynynen, senior scientist at Sunnybrook Therapeutic ultrasound machines avail- further on the results of their system. “The Health Sciences Centre, in Toronto, one way able on the market today destroy benign tu- frequency range seems to be on the low to determine if the blood-brain barrier has mors of the uterus and other tissue mostly end,” she says. “The frequencies would ac- been breached is to listen for ultraharmonic using a single frequency to generate heat at tivate larger microbubbles—greater than frequencies emitted by the bubbles. “This the ultrasound array’s focal point. 2 micrometers—when most microbubbles signal can be used in a feedback system to Using two frequencies simultaneously used are around 1 micrometer. So I’m not control the exposures,” he says. (2)

instead can boost the power of these ma- sure how they would enhance it.” If researchers can prove that ultra- y t chines three- to fivefold, according to Liu. Liu counters that using multiple frequen- sound can safely open a window into the niversi U

Greater cavitation “significantly enhances cies theoretically has a greater chance of ex- brain, better drug therapies will likely step g the blood-brain barrier opening,” he says. citing more bubbles. A bubble’s resonance through it. —yu-tzu chiu Gun g han C / iu L i news L ao- H

18 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG

06.News.NA.indd 18 5/15/14 11:22 AM The foundation of business network uptime.

APC by Schneider Electric Smart-UPS units protect 24/7/365 network availability. Safeguarding critical networking switches and routers Your business depends on your business network. Protecting that network, therefore, is more critical than ever. Known for their reliability for over 25 years, APC™ by Schneider Electric Smart-UPS™ uninterruptible power supplies eliminate costly downtime by providing reliable, network-grade power over a wide range of Intelligent battery backup utility conditions. They keep employees connected to business-critical applications > Avoid costly power problems by keeping your IT whether they are in house, at a co-location facility, or in the cloud. equipment and data safe and available with A Smart-UPS model for every need network-grade power conditioning. Whatever your IT needs and configuration, we have the right Smart-UPS model. > Reduce operating and maintenance costs with a The family offers multiple form factors (tower, rack optimized, and rack/tower patented green operating mode for high efficiency and convertible) to deliver flexibility for any environment. And you can scale runtime to intelligent battery management that prolongs life and business requirements. In addition, you can proactively manage the network closet alerts well in advance of replacement. remotely and optimize energy use through a patented “green mode” on many > Save time with easy and convenient remote models. Deployment is easy with optional Schneider Electric installation services. accessibility, safe operating system shutdown, and Smart-UPS backup units: the intelligent choice for your business network! innovative energy management. > Achieve smarter productivity by tailoring a variety ™ Business-wise, Future-driven. of settings, including switched outlet control, to your application needs via the intuitive LCD interface or software.

How Monitoring Systems Reduce Human Error in Distributed Server Rooms and Remote Wiring Closets

White Paper 103 Reduce human-error downtime, too! Revision 0

by Dennis Bouley

Contents > Executive summary Get guidance in our FREE white paper and enter to win a Samsung Galaxy Note™ 3! Visit: www.apc.com/promo Key Code: h410u

©2014 Schneider Electric. All Rights Reserved. Schneider Electric, APC, Smart-UPS, and Business-wise, Future-driven are trademarks owned by Schneider Electric Industries SAS or its affiliated companies. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. www.schneider-electric.com • 998-1209036_GMA-US_Note3

06a.p19.NA.indd 19 5/7/14 12:35 PM IEEESpectrum_US_June_h410u.indd 1 4/24/14 2:44 PM news

Blades of Glory: Mont-Blanc’s prototype contains 15 nodes made up of ARM-core processors.

Jean-François Lavignon, president of the coalition behind Mont-Blanc (Europe an Technology Platform for High Performance Computing), says that today Intel x86 CPUs still offer the best performance for most supercomputer customers. And he expects that x86 processors combined with acceler- ators, such as GPUs, will continue to domi- nate the Top500 list of the world’s fastest high-performance computers. But, he says, ARM-based computing appears to be a wise investment for the future. ARM cores are an interesting but hardly universally agreed upon path to exascale Europe Wants computer architecture, says Jack Dongarra, professor of computer science at the Uni- versity of Tennessee, in Knoxville. For in- a Smartphone stance, in December Japan announced its plans to build an exaflop supercomputer by Supercomputer 2020 using the usual processors. “The Japanese exascale system, which will A consortium hopes to build exaflop use commodity processors with an accelera- supercomputers from mobile CPUs tor, will draw about 30 to 40 megawatts of power,” he says. “One megawatt per year in the United States is about a million dollars. A European private-public consor- one decided to make supercomputers out So just to turn it on and power it will cost tium wants to make supercomputers of the engines of present-day digital life. The you between $30 million and $40 million.” using smartphone and tablet CPUs. And not thinking goes that because ARM cores are de- Either path that high-performance com- just any supercomputers. They’re shooting signed to run on small smartphone and tab- puting takes will not just have to make power for the moon—aiming for exaflops (1018 or let batteries, a supercomputer built around consumption manageable but also reduce quintillions of floating-point operations per them could yield more speed with less power. the challenge of writing code for what are second), some thousandfold faster than In an age when high-performance computing, sure to be extremely complex machines. the top of today’s high-performance heap. or HPC, is often constrained by heat produc- Such code will have to run a few billion con- Supercomputing has always offered a tion and electricity consumption, that could current threads of instructions instead of kind of turboboosted reflection of every- mean a more scalable machine. the mere 12 million Tianhe-2 does today. day computing. In the 1970s and ’80s, Cray Mont-Blanc, as the effort is called, began Addison Snell, CEO of HPC consulting supercomputers and their ilk were like super in late 2011 at the Barcelona Supercomput- firm Intersect360, says that HPC custom- charged mainframes, with just handfuls of ing Center, known for housing a supercom- ers today, unsure of what next-generation processors that had each been designed for puter in a 19th-century cathedral. It’s now supercomputing will look like, could be speed. In the 1990s and 2000s, as PCs and got 14 partners and €22 million in backing wary of investing too much in ARM-based then laptops predominated, supercomputers through September 2016, and it recently systems out of fear that the software won’t became agglomerations of hundreds, thou- unveiled a prototype blade server meant be there to support them down the line. sands, and now even millions of PC and as a stepping-stone toward a full system. On the other hand, he says, there’s no server cores. (The world’s fastest super The prototype contains Samsung dual-core guarantee that x86-based supercomput- computer today is China’s Tianhe-2, powered Exynos 5 CPUs—each a system-on-a-chip that ing is going to remain the dominant mode l by 3.1 million Intel Xeon cores but capable of includes ARM’s Cortex-A15 core with a GPU. for the 2020s either. ARM architecture only about 5 percent of an exaflop.) It would consume between one-fifteenth and could yet prove itself to be the secret -Blanc

So in the tablet and smartphone age, it was one-thirtieth as much energy per processor as sauce needed to make the best exascale t on

probably only a matter of time before some- today’s HPC systems, its proponents project. computer. Or not. —mark anderson M

20 | Jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG

06.News.NA.indd 20 5/15/14 11:22 AM Rn Po Bi Pb 3.8 days The half-life of radon-222, which decays to lead via polonium and bismuth

DIY Radon Detector Measure radiation resources_Hands On with a

ver the past few years I’ve designed a number of radon detectors; building them converted O is an opportunity to work on multidisciplinary projects with a social benefit. Worldwide, naturally webcam occurring radioactive radon gas seeps from rocks and soils, where it can accumulate in buildings at hazardous levels. The World Health Organization estimates that as many as 14 percent of lung cancers are due to radon exposure. In my work at Carleton University, in Canada, I’ve used custom integrated circuits and specially programmed microcontrollers for my designs, but recently I wondered how I could make a detector with spare parts lying around my basement. • It turns out that you can make a cheap and effective radon detector with five basic elements: a webcam, a funnel covered with copper tape and mesh, a voltage multiplier built from some basic electrical components, a box, and a computer. • The system works because radon and some of its daughter products emit alpha particles as they decay. These alpha particles are responsible for most of the damage to human tissue that occurs when radon gas is inhaled, but they will also produce a slew of electron-hole pairs that show up as illuminated pixels should they strike the CMOS image sensor chip that’s at the heart of many webcams. • As alpha particles don’t travel very far through solid matter, it’s necessary to cut away the protective cover over the webcam’s

es image sensor. Starting with a spare Microsoft LifeCam VX-2000 webcam (about US $20 to $30 online), I cut away the protective cover using a Dremel m ol H tool and covered the indicator LED with electrical tape. • Putting the modified webcam into a dark, ventilated box and connecting it to a computer via

Jon Jon a USB connection gave me a working—but very slow—radon detector. In order to make it more sensitive, I added an electrostatic concentrator to

SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | north american | JUN 2014 | 21

06.Resources.NA.indd 21 5/13/14 2:48 PM RESOURCES_HANDS ON

aren’t that hard to generate because, effectively, no current will be drawn between the electrodes. I put together a 12-stage Cockcroft-W alton voltage multiplier driven by a bipolar 555 timer feeding a Triad Magnetics SP-4 audio transformer. The multiplier converted a 15-V supply to the 1370 V and 990 V I needed for the upper and lower concentrator electrodes, respectively. Although you should be careful dealing with voltages as high as these, the voltage multiplier supplies so little current that an accidental contact shouldn’t be lethal. I also used small (1 nanofarad) capacitors to avoid a dangerous buildup of charge. But again, be careful, and proceed at your own risk. Turning on the high-voltage concentrator improved the count rate of the detector by 25 times or more. Not bad for an old funnel and copper tape! I used Matlab software to control the webcam and also analyze the data. As the image sensor can potentially also detect less strongly interacting beta particles, I set the detection threshold, over which a pixel is considered to have been struck by an alpha, high enough to avoid noise and beta impacts. Also, when the sensor is struck by an alpha particle, an entire cluster of adjacent pixels will often register the impact, so it’s necessary to identify any clusters to avoid overcounting strikes. I used an 8-nearest-neighbor algorithm to find clusters. In all, it took about 100 lines of code. Calibrated with a Safety Siren Pro Series3 radon detector (about $130), my system counted 5.2 alpha strikes per hour in an ambient radon RadC AM: Copper foil and mesh applied to a funnel [top] form the electrodes for an concentration of 159 becquerels per cubic electrostatic concentrator that boosts the count rate of the radon detector. The high voltages required are provided by a voltage multiplier [bottom left]. The detector itself meter. At this level of sensitivity it would take the is a CMOS-based webcam with its image sensor exposed [bottom right]. detector about 20 hours to determine whether radon was present at levels recommended as actionable by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency with about 10 percent accuracy. capture one of radon’s alpha-particle-emitting tact for both electrodes. I used a bottom elec- (For the future of this detector, I am think- daughter products. trode size and spacing of 15 millimeters. I then ing of using electrostatics-modeling software

When radon decays into polonium-218, the stretched copper mesh over the top, soldered a to optimize the concentrator shape, electrode es polonium is usually left with a positive charge, few spots into position, and I was done. size, and voltage to make an even more efficient m ol so it can be swept toward the webcam’s image To get an idea of how the concentrator would detector. It would also be interesting to rigor- H sensor with a suitably shaped electric field. behave and how strong a field I would need to ously calibrate the detector and observe activ- Some copper tape (VentureTape 1626) and a generate, I modeled it using Comsol’s multi- ity dependencies on temperature, humidity, and powder funnel (I happened to have a Nalgene physics simulation software. For a concentrator the presence of airborne particulates.) Jon (2); Griffin yan R 4252-0100 powder funnel on hand) is all you 10 centimeters high, I estimated that an elec- If you build a similar detector yourself and top:

need to make a two-electrode electrostatic con- tric field strength of 50 volts per meter would start reading high counts, contact a professional m centrator that creates a field of the right shape. suffice for collecting charged polonium-218. (or buy a calibrated detector). It might be I applied the copper tape to the interior of the Although high voltages are required at the con- time for radon mitigation in your own home. lockwise fro lockwise

funnel, making sure to preserve electrical concentrator’s electrodes to create this field, they —Ryan H. Griffin C

22 | JUN 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG

06.Resources.NA.indd 22 5/13/14 2:48 PM Make the Connection Find the simple way through complex EM systems with CST STUDIO SUITE

Components don’t exist in electromagnetic If you’re more interested in filters, couplers, isolation. They influence their neighbors’ planar and multilayer structures, we’ve a performance. They are affected by the wide variety of worked application examples enclosure or structure around them. They live on our website at www.cst.com/apps. are susceptible to outside influences. With System Assembly and Modeling, Get the big picture of what’s really going CST STUDIO SUITE helps optimize on. Ensure your product and components component and system performance. perform in the toughest of environments.

Involved in antenna development? You Choose CST STUDIO SUITE – can read about how CST technology is Complete Technology for 3D EM. used to simulate antenna performance at www.cst.com/antenna.

CST – COMPUTER SIMULATION TECHNOLOGY | www.cst.com | [email protected]

06a.p23.NA.indd 23 5/8/14 1:53 PM RESOURCES_careers

P rofile: Danny Jones This systems architect builds the most advanced F-16 combat simulators Danny jones

the particularly complicated task of replicating their imperfections, such as depth percep- tion loss or light blindness when firing weapons. “The challenge of simulating night-vision goggles was duplicating the same miscues and eff ects they would have in the aircraft,” says Jones. “That way pilots can learn corrective habits.” Jones earned a bachelor’s in mechanical engineering from Mississippi State University in 1984, and he spent his career working his way up in flight simulation systems at companies like Link, Raytheon, Hughes, and now L-3. “Mechanical engineering gave me a mind-set and process for architecting components and building them over time,” he says. “But I liked the flexibility of working in software and being able to create something much faster than working lying combat missions in a jet BITS IN FLIGHT: With advanced graphics technolo- with actual hardware.” That flexibility has come fighter requires reflexes that can gies, this simulator can faithfully mimic the challenges in handy when adjusting to increasingly rapid F an F-16 pilot can face during combat missions. respond to challenging terrain, shift- improvements in video and graphics hardware. ing mission objectives, and hostile forces. Danny “The whole simulation visual capacity technol- Jones is helping U.S. Air Force pilots develop Simulator training enables more flying prac- ogy out there today is moving at an extremely those reflexes by building perhaps the most tice and per-session combat training exer- rapid pace, driven to a large extent by the gam- advanced military flight simulator in the world. cises at considerable savings. It costs about ing industry,” says Dan Kelly, L-3’s vice president Jones is the systems architect for the F-16 97 percent less per hour to operate an MTC of Air Force programs. “Fifteen years ago, simu Mission Training Center (MTC) simulator built by than to actually fly four F-16s. Not least are the lation used to be done with custom products; L-3 Link Simulation & Training, headquartered in savings on wear and tear: Each MTC is expected today it’s almost all commercial off-the-shelf.” Arlington, Texas. The MTC was first employed by to last 20 years, but the aircraft’s service life is Currently, the MTC synchronizes the output Nellis Air Force Base, in Las Vegas, in February limited to 12 000 flight hours. of more than 100 graphics cards into a seam- 2012, and it has since been rolled out to several The MTC system advances the state of the art less scene across the pilot’s 360-degree field of more bases in the United States and overseas. through sharper visuals, more realistic city land- view, says Jones. “But instead of flat panels, we’re Each MTC can accommodate four pilots simul- scapes, and artificial intelligence–controlled vehi- now working on a more streamlined system raphy g taneously, and all of the MTCs can connect with cles and pedestrians that react to the aircraft and using curved LCDs or LED displays to create a opo T each other for large-scale networked virtual each other. Each MTC is powered by a combined domelike environment that requires fewer cards, training exercises. total of 440 servers. The simulators re-create the thereby reducing its computational footprint.” ffice of of ffice O As the United States increasingly fights in F-16 cockpit, tactical controls, vibrations, and The system feels so lifelike, Jones hesitates

cities and towns, “the idea is to aid the pilot in visuals on a 360-degree, 18-facet domed display. when asked if he, too, is a pilot. “I’m confident ederal F immersion in a dense urban environment and The system also simulates views coming enough to think that I am,” he says, laughing. wiss wiss S provide a more realistic view of what they would through infrared and low light optical sensors, as “I’ve spent enough hours in the simulator that hoto: hoto:

see in an actual flight,” says Jones. well as night-vision goggles. The latter required I claim I can fly.” —Su san Karlin P

24 | JUN 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG photo-illustration by Gluekit

06.Resources.NA.indd 24 5/13/14 2:48 PM NEW VERSION Data Analysis and Graphing Software

◾ Point-and-Click GUI plus Programming Capability Over 500,000 registered users worldwide in : ◾ 2D, 3D, Contour, Statistical, Specialized Graphs ◾ 6,000+ Companies including 120+ Fortune Global 500 ◾ Import Data from 3rd Party Files or Database ◾ 6,500+ Colleges & Universities ◾ Curve Fitting, Peak Analysis, Signal Processing, ◾ 3,000+ Government Agencies & Research Labs Statistics ◾ Batch Plotting and Analysis ◾ Publication-Quality Reports OVER 200 NEW FEATURES & IMPROVEMENTS IN ORIGIN 9.1! 20+ years serving the scientific & engineering community For a free 60-day evaluation, go to OriginLab.com/demo and (800) 969-7720 enter code: 8547 [email protected]

06a.p25.NA.indd 25 5/8/14 1:55 PM RESOURCES_EDUCATION

Defense Against the Dark Arts (of Cyberspace) Universities are offering graduate degrees in cybersecurity

n an increasingly networked world, security attacks have become not just more frequent and sophisti cated but also more financially damaging. The Isilver lining is the growing need for cyber security experts. Information security analyst jobs are expected to grow by 37 percent by 2022, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Every time there’s a new breach any- ter for Education and Research in In formation Outside the United States, IBM has part- where, a light goes on in some C-suite office and Assurance and Safety. “Ten years ago, somebody nered with more than 200 universities around it opens up hiring,” says Ernest McDuffie, who involved in security would be doing data acquisi- the world to equip students with security skills. leads the National Initiative for Cybersecurity tion and response. Now…somebody involved in Registered faculty at these institutes can acc ess Education (NICE) at the U.S. National Institute security has to be doing risk analysis and threat an IBM-developed curriculum and software of Standards and Technology. evaluation. They need to know law enforcement portfolio online. Viveros says she had been Consequently, more and more institutions and forensics, planning and policy.” astonished to find that before the IBM program, now offer specialized master’s degrees in Purdue’s cybersecurity program produces some schools in countries such as Poland and cybersecurity. Big names like IBM and Intel more graduates every year, and they steadily Mexico had never heard of the topic. are collaborating with schools to keep security find employment, Spafford says. Master’s stu- Indeed, the biggest challenge academic pro- curricula up to date. “Today many companies are dents get five-plus offers, while Ph.D.s get two grams face might be getting enough interest. educating their workforce on their own,” says to three apiece. Spafford feels this level of de- A survey by defense company Raytheon found Marisa Viveros, vice president of IBM’s Cyber- mand will hold up, at least for now: “One recent that less than one-quarter of young adults in the security Innovation Program. “But we also need report says that the average starting salary for United States believed a cybersecurity career is universities to take that in a formal, program hires in the D.C. area is around US $116 000 a interesting at all. matic manner and teach principles and funda- year. If there was an oversupply, that would not One solution is to simply get the career on mentals.” The NICE initiative, meanwhile, hopes be the case.” students’ radar, says Sukumaran Nair, chair of to improve awareness and education and lists Cybersecurity master’s students take basic the computer science and engineering depart- over 180 higher-education facilities as cyber- computer science courses, but two-thirds of their ment at Southern Methodist University, in Dallas. security centers of academic excellence. curriculum covers specialized areas such as net- In the Raytheon survey, 82 percent of respon- Previously, a computer science degree, on- work security, cryptography, data forensics, and dents say that no high school teacher or guid- the-job training, or even self-taught hacking skills policy, says Wenke Lee, director of the Georgia ance counselor ever mentioned the idea of a had been enough to qualify someone for a se- Tech Information Security Center. Hands-on lab career in cybersecurity. “Once it’s clear to fresh curity position. But cybersecurity has expanded courses and real-world projects defined by out- grads from high school that this area will guar- enough in depth and scope in the past decade side organizations or companies round out the antee jobs, it’s very likely that they’ll choose this to warrant its own degree, says Gene Spafford, education. This in-depth training is crucial to be- line of education,” Nair says. “Universities are executive director of Purdue University’s Cen- coming a security specialist, says Lee. well prepared to train them.” —Prachi Patel

26 | JUN 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG Illustration by Jesse Lefkowitz

06.Resources.NA.indd 26 5/13/14 2:48 PM AF_anuncioCMU_206x273_cv.indd 1 07-05-2014 9:38:51 06a.p27.NA.indd 27 5/9/14 1:15 PM TECHNICALLY SPEAKING_by paul mcfedries opinion

Aldous Huxley called “man’s almost infinite appetite for distractions.” So now, it’s not enough to rely on nature or social ties to get our attention. Now we must deal with engineered distraction, stimuli designed so that we can’t help but notice them. It’s one thing to have FOMO (fear of missing out) engender a compulsive connectivity that has us constantly staring into our glowing rectangles and infinity machines. But when the distraction engineers build attention-grabbing interfaces into a city, and when those interfaces are the only way to interact with a resource and so are a kind of coercive connectivity, then we’re dealing with nothing less than attention theft. The metaphor of theft is apt. As many have pointed out, we’re living in an attention economy, and when we focus on something we say we are paying attention. If land is said to be increasingly valuable because nobody’s making any more of it, then attention is increasingly precious because there’s Stop, Attention Thief! only a finite amount of it to go around. In his landmark work, Principles of Psychology Unwanted interruption-based advertising [pilfers] (1890), William James wrote, “My experience time and focus I could have reserved for dearer claims is what I agree to attend to.” So what kind of on my bandwidth, such as my family and friends. experience can we expect when our walks Simply put: Attention theft is a crime. —Tom Hayes and rides through the city are inundated with data smog? And that smog will soon know our names. writing more than a hundred years ago, the German sociologist Georg Marketers are already using directed Simmel observed, “The psychological basis of the metropolitan type of sound to aim audio advertisements at individuality consists in the intensification of nervous stimulation which results individuals, and it won’t be long before facial from the swift and uninterrupted change of outer and inner stimuli.” Which recognition is added (thanks, Facebook!), is a long way of saying that living in a city requires a great deal of our attention. • And just so the once-distant future of Minority Report– a year ago, the screenwriter Bill Oakley quipped, “Describing today to someone from style personalized advertisements will soon 1953: Every 6 seconds all your friends send you a telegram and a brand-new Life maga be coming to a sidewalk near you. zine is thrown at you.” That is to say, living in a networked world requires a great deal So, yes, we can turn off our phones, but of our attention. • What happens when we combine these two ideas? When the city that won’t stop the information pollution. and the network come together, we have the topics of my previous two columns: urban Wearable-computing pioneer Steve Mann computing and the smart city. The upsides of these new paradigms are significant, and once invented glasses that could hide they include improved efficiency, increased civic engagement, and enhanced awareness noxious urban landscape images with more of one’s surroundings. But there are substantial downsides as well, including constant pleasing scenes projected onto the lens, but connectivity, the potential for surveillance, and a tendency to see the interface instead of are the extra visuals of augmented re ality the city. • Perhaps the biggest problem with living a networked, urban life is the seemingly really the answer to visual overload? endless supply of distractions. Our default mode of perceiving the world is what psycholo- Yes, we can hide or secure our valuables to gists call bottom-up attention, where we notice whatever is most salient in our surroundings. guard against theft, but how do we protect “Most salient” used to mean “most dangerous” or “most edible,” but now it usually means our attention from being hijacked against “most distracting.” Hucksters, marketers, and social media gurus know that we’re suckers our will? The answer, I’m afraid, will have for arresting images, that we can’t resist a smartphone’s ping, and that we suffer from what to wait until my next column. n

28 | Jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG illustration by Dan Page

06.TechSpeaking.NA.indd 28 5/7/14 11:04 AM The Next 50 Yea r s

a special report

biomed P. 30 1964, the year of IEEE Spectrum’s founding and of the New York World’s Fair, was a time of bold and futuristic thinking. Visionaries then predicted space P. 36 that the world of 2014 would be shaped by remarkable technological triumphs. And indeed it is. • But hardly any of them are the ones that were forecast in science P. 40 1964. • So, for this 50th anniversary issue, we’ve described what we hope will be achieved in coming decades, rather than guess what will probably be achieved. movies P. 48 We’ve put together desirable scenarios for eight of the most promising of today’s technologies. To broaden the perspective, we’ve also considered what could energy P. 54 go wrong and included a bracing new work of science fiction, written for this issue by Nancy Kress. Though we didn’t set out to predict what life will be like cars P. 60 • a half century from now, we do think we can do better than our peers did in

mobile P. 66 1964. Some of the key technologies then—integrated electronics, nuclear power, space vehicles, and optoelectronics—were very new in 1964 and therefore hard robots P. 74 to visualize decades out. • It was kind of like looking at a toddler and trying to see the future adult. We, at least, have the advantage of looking at an adolescent, fiction P. 80 with that mix of vulnerability, confidence, restlessness, and exuberance. ▶

SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | north american | jun 2014 | 29

06.Future.Intro.NA.indd 29 5/15/14 4:06 PM The End of Disability Prosthetics and neural interfaces will do away with biology’s failings By Eliza Strickland

Hug h Herr is a living exemplar of the maxim that the best way to predict the future is to invent it. At the age of 17, Herr was already an accomplished mountaineer, but during an ice-climbing expedition he lost his way in a blizzard and was stranded on a mountainside for three days. By the time rescuers found him, both of his legs were doomed by frostbite and had to be amputated below the knee. Once his scars healed, Herr spent months in rehab rooms trying out prosthetic legs, but he found them unacceptable: How could he climb with such clunky things? Surely, he thought, medical technologists could build replacement parts that wouldn’t slow him down. • Today, three decades after his accident, Herr walks on bionic limbs of his own creation. As director of the biomechatronics group at the MIT Media Lab, Herr developed advanced

30 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG photograph by Adam Voorhes

06.Future.BiomedTech.NA.indd 30 5/8/14 11:30 AM 06.Future.BiomedTech.NA.indd 31 5/8/14 11:30 AM prosthetics that he uses to walk, run, and ral engineers may be fluent enough to titanium-and-plastic limb as naturally as even rock climb. And now, as he works mimic those instructions, allowing them they would a flesh-and-blood leg. The goal with his colleagues to establish MIT’s to repai r a human being’s faulty systems is to record and understand the brain’s new Center for Extreme Bionics, Herr by rewiring them. commands and then to send those instruc- is setting out not just to reinvent himself tions to the prosthetic. Herr has already but the whole of society. “Fifty years out, tested an early version of such an inte- I think we will have largely eliminated The body is electric. We’ve known grated device. In that setup, he flexed the disability,” he declares, adding that he’s that since the 18th century, when Luigi muscles around his knee as if he were tak- referring not just to physical disabilities Galvani touched a charged scalpel to a ing a step; then an electromyograph cap- but to many emotional and intellectual nerve and made a dead frog’s leg kick. tured the electric signal in those muscles infirmities as well. Neurons in the brain send out pulses of and translated it into a digital signal that Herr believes the solutions lie not in voltage when they “fire,” and the pat- made sense to the microprocessors in his biological or pharmacological cures but terns of their pulses make up our sensa- artificial foot. Just like that, he stepped. in novel electromechanical additions to Even more direct con- our bodies. He gestures to his own arti- nection between brain ficial limbs to make the point. “My legs and machine will be pos- weren’t grown back; I wasn’t given a total sible, Herr says, when he limb transplant,” he notes. “If you elimi- “Fifty years succeeds in connecting nate the synthetics, all I can do is crawl. prosthetics directly to the But with them,” he says with a slow smile, out, I think peripheral nerves in ampu- “I can more or less do anything.” tees’ residual limbs. Not only The MIT scientists are part of a move- could such a system relay ment aimed at ushering medicine into we will have more precise commands to a cyborg age. All over the world, engi- the prosthetic, it could also neers are building electronics-based largely send sensory information systems that communicate directly with back up the nerves. And the human nervous system, promising when amputees actually radically new treatments for a variety of eliminated feel the grass beneath their ailments and conditions, both physical prosthetic toes, Herr says, it and mental. While Herr’s team focuses disability” will change the way humans on giving people better control of their view this technology. “When prosthetic limbs, other researchers are that happens it will not mat- trying to give patients better control of tions, our musings, and our actions. The ter what [the prosthetic] is made of, it will their emotions. One promising experi- electric signals generated in the brain be you,” he says. “I feel, therefore I am.” ment targets depression with deep brain also travel through the spinal cord and stimulation (DBS), in which electrodes along the peripheral nerves to instruct implanted in the brain send steady pulses the body’s muscles and organs. Medicine People with bodily disabilities of electricity to certain problematic neu- in the 20th century relied primarily on typically have a moment that marked the ral areas. Others are developing gear to pharmaceuticals that could chemically onset of their troubles—for example, Hugh compensate for intellectual deficits, such alter the action of neurons or other cells Herr’s ill-fated climbing excursion. In con- as a California project to build a memory- in the body, but 21st-century health care trast, people with the crushing emotional augmenting prosthetic. may be defined more by electroceuticals: difficulty of depression often don’t know In all of these projects, researchers novel treatments that will use pulses of when it started, nor do they necessarily started with the notion that a surprising electricity to regulate the activity of neu- define themselves as disabled. Depres- range of afflictions can be most effectively rons, or devices that interface directly sion is just the state of mind they live with treated by learning the electrical lan- with our nerves. daily, stripping the present of all pleasure guage that the brain uses to govern our Herr’s lab focuses on advanced pros- and the future of all hope. movements, moods, and memories. By thetic legs, and it is developing systems Neuroscientists discovered years ago 2064, it’s entirely possible that neu- that will allow amputees to control a that this existential dread can be tr eated

32 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG

06.Future.BiomedTech.NA.indd 32 5/8/14 11:30 AM NO ACHILLES’ HEELS: Aimee Mullins and Hugh Herr foresee a day when upgrading a body is routine. Mullins, an actress and advocate for advanced prosthetics, was the first double amputee to compete at the highest levels of U.S. collegiate track-and-field events. utline O /Corbis /Corbis reenberg G Page: Jill Jill Page: his T Finlay; Finlay; obin R : : tylist S

p Previous Page: Pro Page: Previous

SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | north american | jun 2014 | 33

06.Future.BiomedTech.NA.indd 33 5/8/14 11:30 AM by using electricity to alter the activity ments ended, and Mayberg says she’s seen says, trying to create a commercial prod- of neurons, and they are now putting ample evidence that their improved lives uct before the basic science of how such that knowledge to use. DBS, one of the can’t be chalked up to a placebo effect. devices work is truly understood. most exciting experimental treatments “When my patients’ batteries die, they The good news for all would-be brain for depression, uses an implanted “brain know it,” she says. engineers is that massive neuroscience pacemaker” that sends steady pulses of Despite the dramatic results in DBS de- initiatives have recently been launched in electricity to certain brain regions. It’s a pression treatment, there was a setback the United States and Europe. The BRAIN technology that was pioneered to stop in the field last ey ar when a major clinical Initiative, announced by U.S. president Parkinson’s patients’ tremors, but it’s now Barack Obama in 2013, will dedicate hun- being explored for a dizzying array of neu- dreds of millions of dollars to develop- ral and psychiatric disorders, including ing new tools that can better record and depression, obsessive-compulsive disor- analyze brain activity. In Europe, mean- der, and PTSD. “Right now we’re at the while, the Human Brain Project is using beta testing stage of DBS for psychiatry,” Bespoke supercomputers to simulate a complete says Helen Mayberg, a neurology profes- human brain so as to better understand sor at Emory University and an authority Medicine how it functions. It’s very possible that on DBS for depression. While engi in 50 years, DBS and other electrical More than 100 000 Parkinson’s patients neering will techniques will be part of mainstream have had electrodes implanted in the play a central psychiatry, Mayberg says. But that will role in 21st- motor control regions of their brains, century medicine, require scientists to know as much about where the stimulator’s pulses reduce biological the workings of a neuron as engineers do the activity of neurons that are misfiring. treatments will about the workings of an electrode. hardly vanish. Those treatments will be But for disorders like depression, both shaped by the coming ubiquity of cheap the target for treatment and the mecha- genome sequencing, which will enable nism of action are considerably less clear. a new model of personalized genetic Once physical and emotional dis- medicine. The change will start in the “The limiting factor is actually the neuro maternity ward, where newborns in their abilities have been conquered, the intel- science, not the engineering,” Mayberg bassinets will receive full genome scans, lectual failures associated with aging will says. She used brain imaging studies to resulting in complete printouts of their be a natural next target, says Theodore genetic vulnerabilities. Then, as those pinpoint a particular region, Brodmann babies grow up and proceed through life, Berger, a professor of biomedical engi- area 25, as overactive in depressed pa- their physicians can design custom-made neering at the University of Southern tients, and she has implanted the DBS de- health-care regimens to ward off trouble California. In fact, by 2064, going cyborg and can prescribe the medications that vice in this region of the brains of about their bodies will respond to best. Today may simply be the sensible and economi- two dozen patients who haven’t respond- the cost of a genome scan is nearing cal thing to do. “We’re living longer, so ed to a slew of medications and therapies. US $1000, and the scans are becoming aging problems, and cognitive problems common in cancer hospitals. When the These test subjects are desperate, so price drops to $100, they’ll be common in particular, are going to be more and overwhelmed by depression that they’re everywhere. —E.S. more prevalent,” Berger says. “The cost willing to undergo experimental brain of a cognitive prosthetic will pale in com- surgery. And the results have been re- parison to taking care of a person with markable. While antidepressant medi- dementia for 20 years.” cations typically take weeks to kick in, trial was halted. The device manufacturer, It’s quite possible that Alzheimer’s pa- many patients in the DBS experiments St. Jude Medical, announced that the trial tients of the future will be equipped with have reported a shift in mood instantly— it had funded failed a “futility analysis,” memory prosthetics derived from the de- literally the moment that the device is but it hasn’t explained exactly what went vices being invented in Berger’s lab today. turned on. One patient reported an imme- wrong. Mayberg notes that there are many His work began with delicate electrodes diate sense of social connection; another variables that can influence the effective- inserted into a rat’s hippocampus, the expressed a desire to go bowling, a pas- ness of DBS; for example, even if the trial brain structure responsible for encod- time she hadn’t enjoyed for years. Most had targeted the correct region, the timing ing memory. Berger first deciphered the patients have chosen to keep their DBS of the pulses may have been off. St. Jude relationship between the input signals systems activated after the formal experi- may have rushed ahead too quickly, she from neurons that process a brief learn-

34 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG illustration by Greg Mably

06.Future.BiomedTech.NA.indd 34 5/8/14 11:30 AM ing experience—for example, which lever Meanwhile, Theodore a rat should press to gain a sip of sugar Berger at the University of Southern California has water—and the output signals from neu- already tried his memory rons that send the information on to be prosthetics on rats that have stored as a memory. no cognitive deficits. He found that he could dramatically Once he had mapped the correlations boost the rats’ performance between the two electrical patterns, on memory tasks. When the Berger could record an input signal and prosthetics were activated, “it was remarkable how much predict the output signal—in other words, better they did,” he says. the memory. He didn’t need to know Such physical and cogni- which part of the input pattern coded for tive enhancements could benefit individual humans but the dimensions of the lever or for the taste take a terrible toll on humanity of the sweet reward. He simply mathemati as a whole, argues Nicholas cally generated the output signal and sent Agar. An associate professor of philosophy at Victoria Uni- it to the memory-storage neurons. “It’s versity of Wellington, in New like translating Russian to Chinese when Zealand, Agar is the author of you don’t know either language,” Berger several books that are critical What Could Possibly Go Wrong? of radical human enhance- says. “We don’t want to know either lan- ment. “When you introduce guage; we just want to know how this pat- these technologies into a tern becomes that pattern.” society where there are vast inequalities of wealth, what’s Berger proved that he could implant the Cyborg the effect of that?” he asks. memory of the lever-and-reward test in Augmenting technologies a rat with a damaged hippocampus that might seem like a novel form of cosmetic surgery at first, was unable to form memories on its own. Castes just another way for wealthy Even more remarkable, he implanted Biomedical enhancements people to boost their egos the memory in a rat that had never be- or improve their quality of could lock in inequality life. But cognitive enhance- fore undergone the test or seen the levers. ments in particular could The rat entered the test chamber for the quickly create an elite class first time, pressed the correctlev er, and No one who works on the MIT’s Hugh Herr imagines of cyborgs who go to the biomedical frontier believes that synthetic body parts best schools, get the best sucked down the sweet nectar. that humans will be content could easily become more jobs, and run the world. Agar With the knowledge of how to record with using advanced pros- desirable than biological worries that the divisions and store memories, Berger can imagine thetics and brain implants parts, especially as people between the haves and only for repair. Once these age. “You wake up at the have-nots would eventually a prosthetic device that encodes mem- technologies have been age of 50 and your joints be locked in by reproduc- ories on a chip. He and his colleagues proven safe and reliable for are stiff, but your friend tive isolation. “What are the have already advanced to primate experi- people with disabilities, some has bionic limbs that he dating prospects between people with unimpaired upgrades every year that someone who has access ments, and he expects to proceed to the bodies will start clamoring make him feel like an to cognitive enhancements first human trials in the coming years. to use them as technological 18-year-old,” Herr says. and someone who hasn’t?” “It will absolutely happen,” he says. In augmentations. “What would you do?” he asks. —E.S. 50 years, he says, elderly people could have devices that they switch on to remember something as trivial as where they put their car keys or as meaningful tions of physical, emotional, and intel- a world in which amputees gain freedom, as their grandchildren’s names. lectual augmentations. He echoes their depressed people find joy, and the elderly Berger optimistically believes his tech- typical refrain: “Will we change humans hold on to their life stories. “People are nology will be embraced, but it’s easy to so much that they cease to be human?” suffering horribly now,” Herr says, “and imagine a backlash against such synthetic But Herr believes that such philosophi- that’s going to end.” n additions to our fleshy bodies. Back at MIT, cal questions will fall by the wayside as

Hugh Herr says he’s heard from plenty of broad swaths of patients begin to benefit post your comments at http:// people who are frightened by his predic- from their machined parts. He imagines spectrum.ieee.org/biomed0614

illustration by MCKIBILLO SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | north american | jun 2014 | 35

06.Future.BiomedTech.NA.indd 35 5/8/14 11:30 AM Fewer Launches, More Space Technologies that exploit space resources will finally open up the solar system By Rachel Courtland

The first robot capable of building anything, including a replica of itself, might cost a fortune to develop; the billionth copy would be as cheap as dirt. Send some of them into space and they could build new armies out of planetary rubble and dust, then go on to construct enough space- ships and refueling stations to carry the human race to other planets and, eventually, other stars. • That’s the scenario laid out some 35 years ago by a team of academics and NASA engineers meeting at the University of Santa Clara, in Calif ornia. They envisioned robotic factories that would cover the moon and exploit the asteroid belt, extracting the resources needed to build more and better versions of themselves and also vast orbiting telescopes, space colonies, and other structures too big to launch from Earth. Over time, the

36 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG illustration by Ben Wiseman

06.Future.Cars.Space.NA.indd 36 5/14/14 1:33 PM 06.Future.Cars.Space.NA.indd 37 5/14/14 1:33 PM researchers wrote, these bots could “pro- to $20 000 to loft every kilogram of stuff up in the moon’s north pole alone, Spudis duce an ever-widening habitat for man into low Earth orbit. Many are now eying says, is “enough to launch the equivalent throughout the Solar System” and beyond newcomer SpaceX, which is promising to of a space shuttle from the surface of the it. The approach could become so success- deliver lower prices with a new heavy-lift moon every day for 2200 years.” ful, they warned, that we might have to rocket. But driving down the costs signifi- We could do far more in space if we make worry about robotic population control. cantly would require either many more what we need out of what we can find, says None of that, of course, has come to pass. launches, to achieve economies of scale, Mason Peck, a professor of mechanical and Except for solar power, everything we use or an improvement on chemical rocketry. aerospace engineering at Cornell and for- in space comes from Earth. But signs of Neither is on the horizon, Spudis says, and mer NASA chief technologist. “I like to say change might be on the horizon. The next that leaves us with one alternative. To get that all the mass we’re ever going to need few years will see the launch of the first beyond low Earth orbit and the half dozen to explore in space is already in orbit. It’s equipment that can make water out of lu- lunar landings already under our belts, we just in the wrong shape.” nar soil and print entirely new structures in must find a way to live off the land. microgravity. These are the seeds of the two basic technological capabilities—resource Getting mass into the right shape extraction and structure fabrication—that is one of the goals of NASA’s Swamp Works. will be needed to build things in space that The laboratory, based at Kennedy Space don’t have to be launched from Earth. Center, in Merritt Island, Fla., occupies If these technologies mature, experts a building where Apollo astronauts once say, they could transform the space envi- trained; it now boasts perhaps the world’s ronment. In 50 years, commercial outfits largest collection of “lunar simulant”— may tow drinking water, extracted from artificial moon dirt. Some 120 tons of the icy asteroids, to thirsty astronauts in Earth stuff, detritus of a mining operation in Black orbit. Vast solar arrays, built on trusses Point, Ariz., sit in a glass-walled room. Here made from cemented lunar soil, could physicist Philip Metzger and his colleagues beam energy to Earth’s surface. Radio test the Regolith Advanced Surface Sys- antennas hundreds of meters wide could tems Operations Robot, or RASSOR, a scrutinize the black hole at the center of rugged-looking industrial rover the size of the galaxy. And humans could finally be a bumper car. RASSOR is more or less rect- able to gather the resources they need for angular when stretched out. At each end, a round-trip journeys to the surface of Mars. pair of pivoting arms holds a long, hollow, rotating drum, studded with shovel-shaped Mine and MAKE: A version of NASA’s openings. For digging leverage against the Nothing about this future is RASSOR robot [top] might one day moon’s reduced gravity, these drums are excavate lunar soil and ice. Later this year, guaranteed. Space plans shift with the Made in Space’s 3-D printer [bottom] will be rotated in opposite directions, collecting political winds, and there is perennial installed on the International Space Station. lunar soil as they spin. When full, the robot debate over why we should go to space can drive to a processing station, fold up so and what the balance of human and ro- The moon alone has plenty of raw ma- as to place a drum above a collection spot, botic exploration should be. terial to go around. The loose soil can and rotate the drum in reverse to empty it. But robotic systems capable of construc- be sintered or glued together to make Metzger expects that such technology tion and resource utilization could address crude structures. Silicon, which makes up could kick off a lunar industry that slowly the single biggest obstacle to the explora- roughly 20 percent of the soil by weight, bootstraps its way up in sophistication. ce

tion of space: the expense. can be extracted and purified to create Crude robotic factories, remotely oper- a Sp “The technical facts of life in space are rudimentary solar cells. And, crucially, ated by humans, would be used to build n de I de

that it’s hard to get there, it’s hard to stay there seems to be water, a multipurpose slightly more capable systems, which would Ma

there, and it costs money to do it repeatedly,” resource that can be purified for drinking, make even more capable ones, and so on. om: tt says Paul Spudis, a scientist at the Lunar poured into containers to make radiation Metzger and his colleagues have modeled and Planetary Institute, in Houston. Rocket shielding, and split into hydrogen and how this might work, and they reckon that

companies still charge roughly US $10 000 oxygen to form rocket fuel. The ice locked as little as 12 metric tons of equipment sent Bo NASA; Top:

38 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG

06.Future.Cars.Space.NA.indd 38 5/14/14 1:33 PM to the moon would be enough to jump-start the amount of science that the evolution of a self-sustaining robotic can be done and the amount of human exploration that we industry. In time, he says, this approach can do,” Peck adds. “If that could lead to the robotic colonization, or persists, I think eventually “robolonization,” of the solar system. people will lose patience, and there will be less and This might sound outlandish, Metzger less public support for space says, but most of what we build in space exploration and science doesn’t have to be as sophisticated as what generally. Then we’ll never be able to get off the planet in a we send from Earth. Because launch mass permanent way.” isn’t a concern, he says, “we can build a But even if the government giant, clunky robot out of iron instead of does push aggressively to build space infrastructure, the a small, lightweight one out of titanium.” effort could still falter. A “killer Truly advanced components, such as com- app” that would vastly change puter chips, could be shipped in batches the economic equation and make space development and slotted into robots until they too could profitable still hasn’t been be manufactured in space. One of the key found. Scott Pace, director challenges, Metzger says, will be improving of the Space Policy Institute What Could Possibly Go Wrong? at George Washington reliability. Lunar dust has a habit of getting University, in Washington, D.C., into everything, and regular human repair phrases the problem like a missions can’t be expected. riddle: “What’s the question,” he asks, “for which space is RASSOR is not slated for launch, but No Buck the answer?” another NASA team is preparing a flight- There are also practical ready version of what could become the hurdles, such as the legality of claiming asteroids and first equipment to extract and make re- Rogers, lunar resources, says Henry sources on the moon: the Regolith and Hertzfeld, a professor of Environment Science and Oxygen and space policy and international affairs at George Washington Lunar Volatile Extraction (RESOLVE) ex- No Bucks University. “Who has the periment. RESOLVE is currently an experi- Business as usual could spell the rights? Do we have to divide ment without a spacecraft, but NASA hopes them up, and if so, how? end of public support for space These issues would have to to find a way to launch it on a rover as early exploration be addressed,” Hertzfeld says. as 2019. It is designed to hunt for hydrogen, And if we somehow which could possibly point the way to water succeed in all our efforts, there could be side effects. ice. While in operation, RESOLVE will also All hopes for space will just not palatable.” But For instance, we might attempt to make water, by heating lunar soil come to nothing if the future Mars is easy for politicians spoil pristine environments to 900 °C to release oxygen and combin- resembles the present, with to support, he says: They of historical or scientific tight budgets and constantly can advocate for the long- significance. Picking the path ing it with hydrogen carried in from Earth. changing plans. “I’ve been term goal without diverting forward for space won’t be For any harnessing of space resources to in the space business for enough funds today to make easy, but if we don’t carefully work, many experts say, the government 35 years,” says Paul Spudis, it happen. consider it, the choice could a scientist at the Lunar Dithering could slowly be made for us. —R.C. will need to play a big role, creating infra- and Planetary Institute, in eat away at public support. structure much as it might build a mail sys- Houston. “I’ve never seen “I think the worst case would tem or a network of highways or any other such a screwed-up mess be if we continue only with as we now have.” these occasional piecemeal, backbone of commerce. But that hasn’t NASA’s current plans individual missions that are stopped private companies from wading in. call for sending humans to kind of designed to be self- One of these is Planetary Resources, which Mars in the 2030s, but any sustaining, like Conestoga such trip is at least 60 years wagons full of all the supplies is setting its sights on trips to near-Earth ob- away, argues Ralph McNutt, you’ll ever need,” says jects beginning in the early 2020s. On its first a physicist at Johns Hopkins Mason Peck, a professor of forays the company will search not for plati- University’s Applied Physics mechanical and aerospace Laboratory, in Laurel, Md. engineering at Cornell and SSS

M num and other pricey metals—the typical “The price tags have come former chief technologist at In the REd: Is Mars too giant L/ P

J q/NASA uarry of space | continued on page 88 out to be so big that they’re NASA. “I think that will limit a leap?

illustration by MCKIBILLO SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | north american | jun 2014 | 39

06.Future.Cars.Space.NA.indd 39 5/14/14 1:33 PM Inf initely Malleable Materials People will conjure objects as easily as we now play music or movies By Philip Ball

Several executives listen attentively to a sharp- suited sales rep making his pitch. Suddenly, a miniature car emerges from a vat of gray goop in the center of the conference table. The salesman proceeds to reshape this model using nothing more than his hands, flattening the car’s roofline and adjusting the geometry of its headlamps. Finally, he transforms the car from its initial haze gray to fire-engine red, its “atoms” twinkling in close-up with Disney-movie magic as their color changes. • Yes, it’s just a video done with special effects. But it comes from researchers at Carnegie Mellon University, in Pittsburgh, who are developing technology intended to enable not just the instant creation of complex objects—far beyond what today’s 3-D printing can achieve—but also their transfiguration on command. • Such a capability could change society even more profoundly

40 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG photograph by Adam Voorhes

06.Future.Materials.NA.indd 40 5/15/14 12:35 PM 06.Future.Materials.NA.indd 41 5/15/14 12:35 PM than the Internet has. If this magical In the 1980s, Lehn began calling this claytronic goop, you’ll be able to sum- morphable matter were cheap and ef- “informed matter,” which would be a kind mon any prop you want: a coffee cup, fective, it would allow us to send and of programmable matter constructed at a scalpel, or (as their promotional video download copies of objects as easily as the atomic and molecular scale. illustrates) a model automobile to use in we do digital documents. We could du- The last decade or so of research in a sales presentation. plicate an object and then reshape it to nanotechnology—with its interest in “Any form of programmable matter our whims. Even if the technology turns “bottom-up” self-organizing systems— that can pass the Turing test for appear- out to be too expensive or the objects too has lent increasing support to Lehn’s ance [looking indistinguishable from fragile to replace conventionally manu- ideas. But creating molecules that can the real thing] will enable an entire new factured goods, it might still allow people assemble into complex and even respon- way of thinking about the world,” says to summon up a facsimile of the thing sive forms is one thing; designing systems Goldstein. He also entertains the notion they desire long enough to test it out, try made from tiny computers that will re- that objects built from programmable it on, redesign it, or be entertained by it— configure themselves into whatever you matter could be fully functional, in which with no more effort than it now takes to want at the push of a button is a whole case the possibilities for this technology view a digital movie or play an MP3 file. other kind of challenge. For that, it’s the become so limitless as to boggle the But do such wild notions bear any re- engineers who are now taking the lead. mind. “A pplications like injectable sur- lation to what might actually be possi- The shrinking of power sources and gical instruments, morphable cellphones, ble over, say, the next 50 years? To get a circuitry for wireless communications and 3-D interactive life-size TV are just the sense of the answer, it’s helpful first to now allows robots, even centimeter- tip of the iceberg,” says Goldstein. look back a quarter century or so to the size ones, to talk to one another easily. The Carnegie Mellon team calls the roots of this audacious concept. And making miniature machines that components of this stuff “catoms,” short can change shape or orientation with- for claytronic atoms, tiny spherical robots out requiring delicate moving parts is that are able to move, stick together, com- In 1991, MIT computer scientists increasingly practical, thanks to the municate, and compute their location in Tommaso Toffoli and Norman Margolus development of smart materials that relation to others. Making them is a tall speculated in print about a collection of respond to external stimuli by bending order, especially if you need millions. But small computers arranged so that they or expanding, for example. Goldstein thinks it’s achievable. could communicate with their immediate In short, in the three decades since the neighbors while carrying out computa- basic ideas of programmable matter were tions in parallel. A large number of such first formulated, the technologies needed computing nodes would together consti- to create concrete examples have arrived tute “programmable matter,” according and are actively being tinkered with. to Toffoli and Margolus. They were talking only about a highly parallel modular computer, one that might simulate the Seth Goldstein and his team at physics of real matter. But soon others Carnegie Mellon, in collaboration with applied this same term to a far more am- others at Intel Research Pittsburgh, were time capsule: 1964 bitious idea: an assembly of tiny robotic among the first to put together prototypes computers that could rearrange them- and explore possible applications. IBM Sys- selves to take on varying forms. Goldstein and his colleagues envision tem/360 The chemistry Nobel laureate Jean- millions of cooperating robot modules,

Marie Lehn independently developed each perhaps no bigger than a dust grain, When it was introduced in related ideas even earlier, but coming together mimicking the look and feel April 1964, IBM’s System/360 from a different direction. He and others of just about anything. They hope that was the first commercially available mainframe based argued that chemists would use the one day these smart particles—dubbed on integrated circuits. The principles of self-organization to design claytronics—will be able to produce a machine ranged in speed molecules imbued with the information synthetic reality that you’ll be able to from 0.0018 to 1.7 million instructions per second. By they needed to spontaneously assemble touch and experience without donning comparison, the iPhone 5s can themselves into complex structures. fancy goggles or gloves. From a lump of execute around 18 200 MIPS.

42 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG photo-illustration by Gluekit

06.Future.Materials.NA.indd 42 5/15/14 12:35 PM Since the early 2000s, he and his fel- Bloom, the late Michael low Pittsburgh researchers have been Crichton’s 2002 thriller Prey, and even in tongue-in-cheek building modest approximations of their fashion in a 2011 episode ultimate goal. The first prototypes were of the animated TV sitcom squat cylinders, each a little bigger than “Futurama.” The real threats may a D-cell battery, their edges lined with be ones associated more rows of electromagnets, which allowed generically with pervasive them to stick to one another and form computing, especially when it works by means of Wi-Fi. two-dimensional patterns. By turning What if such a system were various magnets on and off in sequence, hacked? It’s one thing to have the researchers could make one catom data manipulated online this way, but when the computing crawl around another. More recently, substrate is tangible stuff the team used photolithography to build that reconfigures itself, cylindrical catoms about a millimeter hackers will gain enormous leverage for creating havoc. in diameter, which can receive power, But Goldstein thinks that communicate, and adhere. These tiny the actual dangers are more catoms can’t yet move, but they will soon, of a sociological nature. What Could Possibly Go Wrong? Programmable matter is Goldstein promises. sure to be rather expensive, The key challenge is not in manufac- at least initially, and so the turing the circuits but in programming capabilities it offers might only widen the gap between the massively distributed system that Help, My those with access to new will result from putting all the units to- technology and those gether, says Goldstein. Rather than draw- without. Want to relax on your home holodeck? Enjoy ing up a global blueprint, the researchers Chair Has it if you can afford one. If hope to use a set of local rules, where- not, you’ll have to content by each catom needs to know only the yourself with playing Grand Theft Auto XXXVII. positions of its immediate neighbors. a Virus! And if programmable Properly programmed, the ensemble Hackers could turn matter becomes capable of will then find the right configuration producing fully functional your programmable matter objects, that development, through an emergent process. against you much like today’s pervasive Some living organisms seem to work automation, will threaten this way. The single-celled slime mold to render jobs in traditional manufacturing obsolete. Dictyostelium discoideum, for example, There is something a little in any event, Seth Goldstein So serious advances in aggregates into a multicellular body when sinister in this idea of matter of Carnegie Mellon insists programmable matter will under duress, without any central brain to that morphs and even that “there’s no gray-goo probably make more people mutates. Can we be sure we scenario here,” referring to unemployable, not because plan its dramatic transformation or sub- can control this stuff? Here our a term that nanotechnology they lack useful skills but sequent coordinated movements. fears are surely shaped by old visionary K. Eric Drexler because there will be nothing For catoms to do that, they must myths like the golem of Jewish coined in his 1986 book for them to do. folklore, a being fashioned Engines of Creation. Of course, powerful new first be able to communicate with one from clay that threatened to Drexler speculated about capabilities always carry another, if not also with a distant con- overwhelm its creator. the possibility of nanobots the potential for abuse. You troller. The Carnegie Mellon researchers The malevolence of that could self-replicate can see hints of that already matter that is infinitely exponentially as they in, say, plans to use swarm are now exploring electrostatic nearest- protean is also evident in consumed the raw materials robotics for surveillance or neighbor sensing and radio technologies popular culture, for example around them. This sparked in the reconfigurable robots for remote control. the “liquid robot” T-1000 some early fears that out- that are being designed for of Terminator 2: Judgment of-control nanotechnology warfare. Expect the dangers Of course, to be practical, the reposi Day (1991). The prospect could turn the world into a of programmable matter to tioning of catoms needs to happen of creating programmable giant mass of gray sludge— be much like those of the fast. Goldstein and his colleagues think matter this sophisticated a theme that appeared Internet: When just about remains so remote, though, repeatedly in later works of everything is possible, not all that an efficient way to produce shape that such dangers can’t be science fiction, including of what goes on will be good.

previous page: prop stylist: robin finlay robin stylist: prop page: previous changes might be to fill the initial blob meaningfully assessed. But Wil McCarthy’s 1998 novel —P.B.

illustration by MCKIBILLO SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | north american | jun 2014 | 43

06.Future.Materials.NA.indd 43 5/15/14 12:35 PM of catoms with lots of little voids and then shift them around to achieve the right contours. Small local movements Programming of adjacent catoms would be sufficient to shift the cavities, and if they are allowed to bubble to the surface, the overall vol- Matter From the ume would shrink. Conversely, the material could expand by opening up pockets Bottom Up at the surface and engulfing them. Chemists, too, might be used to modify, heal, or control living things. hope to fashion Researchers have also At MIT, the computer scientist programmable been studying ways to turn Daniela Rus and her collaborators have a forms of matter DNA itself into a kind of different view of how smart, sticky grains programmable material that could be made to assemble could reproduce an object. Their “smart Engineers’ top-down into specific configurations sand” would be a heap of such grains approaches to program using the same chemical that stick together selectively to form the mable matter will build on principles that bind the existing developments in double helix of the genome. target object. The unused grains would robotic technology. But In this way, scientists have just fall away. there are also bottom-up patterns that break or even woven strands of DNA into Like Goldstein, Rus and her colleagues strategies, using nanoscale explode and then re-form. complex nanoscale shapes: particles or even molecules. Choreographing these boxes with switchable lids, have so far built only rather large For example, there is intense changes is impossible at the letters of the alphabet, even prototypes—“smart pebbles”—that work research being done on self- moment, but researchers tiny world maps. By supplying in two dimensions, not three. These units propelled or “living” colloids: have shown they can move and removing “fuel strands,” particles perhaps a hundred and control individual which can temporarily stick are the size of sugar cubes, with built-in or so nanometers across nanoparticles using radio to and change the shape microprocessors and electromagnets on that have their own means of waves and magnetic fields. of other strands, it’s even four faces. A set of cubes can duplicate a propulsion, such as chemical These same techniques have possible to make molecular- reactions that release gas. also permitted wireless remote scale machines that move. shape inserted into the midst of a group These particles, made control of certain processes in Eventually, such DNA bots of them. The ones that border the target from materials like magnetic living organisms, such as the might be given the ability object recognize that they are next to it and crystals encapsulated in triggering of nerve signals and to replicate and evolve, at polymer spheres, can exhibit the release of insulin. So it’s which point this variety of send signals to a collection of other cubes complex, self-organized not too huge a leap to envision programmable matter could elsewhere to replicate its shape. behavior. They can, for their use in some future form become increasingly complex Rus’s team hit on an ingenious way to instance, form crystalline of configurable matter that and capable on its own. —P.B. make smart grains move, demonstrating the strategy using larger cubes they call M-blocks, which are 5 centimeters that can form arbitrary structures with a such magic, Goldstein sees the basic on a side. Each uses the momentum variety of material properties, all on demand. ideas of programmable matter being of flywheels spinning at up to 20 000 Shrinking today’s robotic pebbles and applied to objects at all scales, from rotations per minute to roll over, climb on blocks to the submillimeter scale presents atoms to house bricks, or perhaps top of one another, and even leap through an enormous technical challenge, but it’s even larger. It’s almost a philosophy: the air. When they come into contact, the not unreasonable to imagine that advances a determination among today’s blocks can be magnetically attached to in microelectromechanical systems might researchers to make their creations form the desired configuration. At the allow for such miniaturization a few more intelligent, more obedient, and moment, the experimenters must provide decades from now. That would then allow more sensitive, imbuing them with the instructions for sticking together. Their someone to instantly reproduce a facsimile qualities that will eventually make them plan, though, is to develop algorithms of just about any object—depending on what act almost like living things—like matter that allow the cubes themselves to decide it is, maybe even one that functions as well with a mind of its own. n when they need to hook up. as the original.

The researchers’ ultimate aim is to create While the holy grail is a sea of tiny post your comments at http: a system of modules the size of sand grains machines working together to perform //spectrum.ieee.org/science0614

44 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG illustration by Greg Mably

06.Future.Materials.NA.indd 44 5/15/14 12:35 PM IT’S TIME TO CELEBRATE RR Donnelley congratulates IEEE Spectrum on 50 years of excellence. As a 150-year-old communications provider, we know the hard work and dedication necessary to continue thriving in our ever-evolving world. We look forward to serving IEEE Spectrum for the next 50 years!

800.742.4455

06a.p45.NA.indd 45 5/8/14 4:24 PM 46 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG

06.Future.DayInTheLife.NA.indd 46 5/14/14 2:50 PM 2064: A Day In the life Future Block This urban idyll is based on a little whimsy and a lot of ideas from our features. How many can you spot? For the key, go to http://spectrum.ieee.org/futureblock0614

Illustration by QuickHoney

SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | north american | jun 2014 | 47

06.Future.DayInTheLife.NA.indd 47 5/14/14 2:50 PM Leaving the Uncanny Valley Behind Computer- generated humans are paving the way for new forms of entertainment By Tekla S. Perry

Say hello to Ira. His head is visible on a screen, as though he’s in a videoconference. He seems to be in his early 30s, with a shaved head, a pronounced nose, and thin eye- brows. Ira seems a little goofy and maybe just a wee bit strange. But unless you knew his full name—it’s “Digital Ira”—you probably wouldn’t guess that he’s nothing but bits. • In the background, a graphics processor churns through the calculations that determine every roll of his eyes, every crease or bulge of his skin, and every little arch of his eyebrow. Digital Ira can assume almost any expression—joy, befuddlement, annoy- ance, surprise, concern, boredom, or pleasure—in about the same amount of time it takes a human to do so. • As Digital Ira affirms, graphics specialists are closing in on one of their field’s longest-standing and most sought-after prizes: an interactive and

48 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG illustration by Ben Wiseman

06.Future.Entertainment.NA.indd 48 5/15/14 3:23 PM 06.Future.Entertainment.NA.indd 49 5/15/14 3:23 PM counts, digital entertainment will enter a period of fast and turbulent change. An actor’s performance will be separable from his appearance; that is, an actor will be able to play any character—short, tall, old, or young. Some observers also foresee a new category of entertainment, somewhere between movies and games, in which a work has many plotted story lines and the viewer has some freedom to move around within the world of the story. Creators of entertainment also dream that technology will someday make itself invisible. Instead of painstakingly using cameras and computers to share their visions, they hope to be able to directly share the rich worlds of their imaginations using a form of electronic mind reading far more sophisticated than the brain-scan technology of today: If you can think it, you will be able to make someone see it. “That is the future I wish for—where the hard edges of technology disappear and we return to magic,” says Alexander McDowell, a professor at the University of Southern ACross The Valley: A digital re-creation of the late rapper Tupac Shakur performed at the 2012 California’s School of Cinematic Arts. Coachella festival [top], Brad Pitt’s digital double aged dramatically in the 2008 movie The Curious Case That magic means not only being able of Benjamin Button [bottom left], and researchers at the University of Southern California’s Institute for Creative Technologies have created a strikingly realistic virtual human, Digital Ira [bottom right]. to step inside a realistic virtual world without the cumbersome—and, for some, nauseating—head-mounted screens that photo-realistically lifelike digital human. years to describe a problem faced by those create virtual experiences today. It means Such a digital double will change the way using computer graphics to depict realistic being able to seamlessly merge the real and we think about actors, acting, entertain- human characters. When these creations the virtual, to allow computer-generated ; alamy ; T C I ment, and computer games. In movies, stopped looking cartoonish and started beings to walk among real humans. C S

digital doubles already replace human approaching photo-realism, the charac- “I want to be able to jump down the rab- /U &D actors on occasion, sometimes just for ters somehow began to seem creepy rather bit hole—not just metaphorically, not just R moments, sometimes for most of a feature than endearing. Some people speculated visually, but really jump inside” a story or tivision tivision

film. Within a decade or so, computer- that the problem could never be solved; virtual experience, says Tawny Schlieski, Ac es; es; game characters will be as indistinguish- now it has proved to be just a matter of a research scientist at Intel Labs. “And I g ma able from filmed humans as their movie research and computing power. want the rabbit to follow me home.” I counterparts. And in time, this capability Producing a fully realistic digital double Today’s world of moviemaking—in which olk/Getty olk/Getty

will help bring movies and games together, is still fantastically expensive and time- realistic computer-generated humans P and out of the union will come entirely consuming. It’s cheaper to hire even are an option, albeit an expensive one— new forms of entertainment. George Clooney than it is to use comput- was hard to imagine just 10 years ago. This blurring of the real and the digital ers to generate his state-of-the-art digital In 2004, the state-of-the-art computer- became possible in movies recently when double. However, the expense of creating generated human was a creepily cartoon- moviemakers reached a long-anticipated a digital double is dependent on the costs ish Tom Hanks in The Polar Express . And

milestone: They crossed the “uncanny of compute power and memory, and these the uncanny valley seemed an impossibly Christopher top: from kwise c

valley.” The term has been used for costs will inevitably fall. Then, by all ac- wide chasm. Clo

50 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG

06.Future.Entertainment.NA.indd 50 5/15/14 3:23 PM But just four years later, The Curious Case at the now standard rate of 24 frames per of the bones, muscles, and skin but also of Benjamin Button spanned the gap, in the second. Those figures mean that realis- how light in the scene needs to reflect opinion of most movie effects specialists. tic digital doubles are beyond the reach and scatter to best mimic how real light This motion picture, shifting seamlessly be- of video-game creators—at least for now. illuminates a real face as it talks, smiles, tween Brad Pitt and a computer-generated “The technology that we’ve devel- or frowns. Each individual frame appears replica of him, revolves around a boy who oped does push down to games, but it’s on screen as it becomes available, at a is born old and ages backward. It was “the driven on the film side,” says Letteri. Weta, rate of 60 frames per second. So far, two Turing test” for computer graphics, says which produced the effects for such block versions of a moving, speaking Digital Alvy Ray Smith, who pioneered the use of busters as Avatar, The Lord of the Rings, Ira have been demonstrated: by Nvidia computer graphics in movies at Lucasfilm and the 2005 King Kong, is the world’s at the March 2013 GPU Technology Con- in the 1980s and cofounded computer- leading practitioner of the effects tech- ference and by Activision at the July 2013 graphics trailblazer Pixar. Siggraph conference. The Nvidia version “I’d swear it was Brad Pitt ran on a Nvidia graphics card perform- right there on the screen— ing 4.9 trillion mathematical operations and I’m an evil-eyed, an- I t’s cheaper per second; the Activision version ran noying computer-graphics on a PlayStation 4 with a 1.84-teraflop expert,” Smith says. The graphics processor. Turing test, named for the to hire For game makers, being able to dem- computer pioneer Alan onstrate a photo-realistic human created Turing, gauges whether a George by computer graphics software on the fly machine is indistinguish- was like throwing a rope across the unable from a human and canny valley—it made it possible for them was originally proposed in Clooney to imagine that they, too, will be able to 1950 to test natural-language bridge that expanse soon. Says Jen-Hsun conversations. than it is Huang, CEO of Nvidia, “In technology, if Since Benjamin Button, something is possible now, it will take less pioneering moviemakers than 10 years to make it practical.” He fig- have begun to buttress the to generate ures that a Digital Ira–level character will bridge across the uncanny be available to computer-game producers valley, often for short scenes his digital within 5 years and that “we’ll see video where it is impossible or in- games with as much realism as Gravity in convenient to film an actor less than 10 years.” At first, he adds, the directly. For example, a dig- double technology will be used in limited ways, ital double replaced actor in games with relatively small numbers of Guy Pearce in a few scenes in Iron Man 3 nique known as motion capture. “Games characters or less complex worlds. And because they were filmed after Pearce have to put an image on the screen every questions remain. It’s one thing to pres- had grown a beard for his next project, 60th of a second; for us in movies, we will ent a digital human on the screen and ex- reports Joe Letteri, senior visual-effects spend tens of hours getting a frame right.” pect you to see it as real; it’s quite another supervisor at New Zealand–based Weta Game makers believe that digital dou- to maintain the illusion of reality when Digital. And a digital version of the late bles, indistinguishable from human ac- you’re interacting with the character, not rapper Tupac Shakur performed at the tors, will start appearing in games within just observing it. Coachella music festival in 2012. a decade. It’s Digital Ira that has made Creating these scenes took a lot of time them so optimistic. Digital Ira starts with and computing power. Each frame of a image data created by a sophisticated 3-D The first major change we’ll see movie that uses computer-generated hu- scanning system at USC’s Institute for in the entertainment world, probably mans may take as many as 30 hours to Creative Technologies, in Los Angeles. about 10 years from now, when movie process, using many racks of extremely Graphics processors turn the data into makers and game creators are crank- high-powered computer servers. And just a moving image by using calculations ing out digital humans with ease, will 5 minutes of film requires 7200 frames, that determine not only the movement be the separation of the actor’s appear-

SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | north american | jun 2014 | 51

06.Future.Entertainment.NA.indd 51 5/15/14 3:23 PM ance from the actor’s Most efforts to blend bodies; they may also have reflectors or performance. In Benja- movies and games have fluorescent paint on their faces. In some min Button, Brad Pitt’s focused on the creation cases, head-mounted cameras capture character changed dra- of a world for the player their facial motions from multiple angles. matically but was al- to explore. But just Motion-capture technology will get ways recognizable as sending people into a easier and more natural to use. But, says Brad Pitt. Soon though, virtual place to play isn’t Javier von der Pahlen, director of creative says graphics pioneer time capsule: 1964 real entertainment. research and development at the Central Smith, “it won’t matter Plasma “Stories have to be Studios division of Activision, “I would like what the actor looks like authored,” says USC’s to see a character that is expressing itself, anymore. He can be any Display McDowell. “But multiple not precaptured, not generating canned age, any color. He can Panel threads can exist, and expressions or creating them from seman- be a seven-foot basket- the audience can walk tic rules, but creating expressions by the ball player with polka The first plasma display around in a story’s land- same things that create our expressions.” panel, demonstrated in 1964, dots.” But far from be- was a scant 4 by 4 inches. scape, following a ma- Weta’s Letteri describes this approach ing the end of human Its inventors, Donald L. jor character and then as turning the process of generating char- actors, such advances Bitzer, Hiram Gene Slottow, diverting when another acters around and driving it “from the and Robert Wilson, at the may help actors blos- University of Illinois at Urbana- character seems more inside out—to be able to ask, What is this som in ways not possi- Champaign, were recognized interesting.” Theater art- character thinking, and how does that ble today. Imagine how with an Emmy Award in 2002 ists have already started relate to his face?” for their achievement. many more roles Meryl to embrace this model. To do this will require overcoming many Streep and Judi Dench Sleep No More is an inter- huge challenges. A truly digital character, could play if they weren’t limited by their active version of Macbeth that has been one that does its own acting rather than ages and physical conditions. playing since 2011 in New York City. In the conveying the acting of another actor, Next, when game characters are indis- production, actors perform throughout will be created only by merging artificial- tinguishable from movie actors, we’re a five-story building. Audience members intelligence technology that passes the likely to see the emergence of a type of move freely, following sets of actors or Turing test in both verbal and nonverbal entertainment that lies somewhere be- exploring the many rooms as they wish. responses—physical gestures, facial expres- tween movies and games—Intel’s Schlieski The digital equivalent of this will come, sions, and so on—with perfectly rendered uses the informal term “cinemagraphic although the details of how it will be- computer graphics. That will be really hard. games.” It will be years, maybe a decade come a compelling experience are elu- Computer scientists don’t think the or more, before the technical and creative sive. Schlieski believes the solution will challenge is insurmountable, but they factors align to produce a breakthrough hinge on plots. “What drives this industry agree that the complexity of the challenge work in the fledgling genre. But in the is storytellers,” she says. “Storytelling is is awe inducing, because even the na- meantime, there have been a few glim- an art and a gift.” ture of the goal is hard to spell out. “We mers of what’s coming. don’t have a clue how to replace actors,” The game The Walking Dead is proba- Smith says. “We don’t know what acting bly the best example, says Schlieski. In it, The entertainment industry is. None of us can explain how an actor players have to do more than shoot; they will spend decades exploiting the possi- convinces you that he or she is someone have to make choices, such as whether to bilities of digital characters. And much of other than who they are.” lie to characters, including a little girl and that will be mere preamble to real revo- Not only do scientists not know how a police officer. The choices come back lution, four or five decades from now: actors generate emotions from a script, to help—or haunt—them later in the game. teaching computers to act. they don’t even know how genuine emo- For example, after you’ve picked up the Today’s computer-generated charac- tions work to change the appearance of little girl you meet some strangers, and ters get their “acting” from real actors, the face and body. you need to lie to the strangers about your using motion-capture technology: Live ac- “Researchers have yet to agree relationship to the girl. At that point, if the tors perform on a special stage, wearing whether we pull our facial expression girl trusts you, she will support your lie tight jumpsuits studded with dozens of first—a smile, say—and then feel happy, or and help you; if she doesn’t, she won’t. reflectors placed at key points on their if we feel happy and then smile to com-

52 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG photo-illustration by Gluekit

06.Future.Entertainment.NA.indd 52 5/15/14 3:23 PM municate it,” says Angela Tinwell, senior to Angela Tinwell, senior lecturer in games and creative technolo- lecturer in games and creative technologies at the University gies at the University of Bolton, in the of Bolton, in the United United Kingdom. Kingdom. When children Sebastian Sylwan, Weta’s chief tech- grow up spending much of their days interacting with nology officer, is optimistic nevertheless. realistic computer-generated “Computer graphics is at most 30 years characters, says Tinwell, old,” he notes. “And digital doubles have they may be handicapped when it comes to interacting just arrived.” with the real thing. A half century from now, when we’ve On the other hand, it’s become accustomed to seeing utterly con- equally possible that the brain will adapt and learn vincing digital doubles, what will we wish new ways to distinguish the we had done today? Collected the raw genuine human from the data to perfectly re-create historical fig- virtual impostor, says Ayse P. Saygin, associate professor ures, says Nvidia’s Huang. Right now, we of cognitive science and should be using digital motion-capture neurosciences at the University techniques to record world figures giving of California, San Diego. What Could Possibly Go Wrong? But even in that best- speeches, being interviewed, or perform- case scenario lurks a major ing, just as painters captured influential potential problem. A person figures beginning in the 17th century and who spends much of his childhood in virtual worlds photographers in the 19th. “We should When might not want to leave them, capture Obama, the Dalai Lama, all the Saygin says. When a game people of consequence in the world,” can adapt to your mood better than most acquaintances Huang says. “Once we capture it, we can the Fake do, people might prefer the enjoy it in ever-increasing fidelity as com- game to the friends. “When puter graphics advances.” you go into the real world and people, unlike a game, Farther out, probably more than Trumps are not engineered to 30 years from now, digital humans— entertain you and cater to your maybe displayed as holograms, maybe needs, or don’t understand automatically when you are as robots—will be able to interact con- the Real annoyed or happy, you will vincingly and satisfyingly with us. Ultra- In a world of synthetic faces, want to go home and hang advanced processors and software will human expression could become out with your avatar friends,” says Saygin. “I absolutely let them interpret our thoughts and feel- hard to read believe this technology will do ings and respond inventively with humor a lot of good. But replacing and compassion. “This could help reduce human relationships could be the dark side of this.” loneliness in an increasingly aging popu- Computer-generated behavior. When we lived in Writers and directors have lation,” says Tinwell. characters that are indis- caves, that understanding already started to explore It’s possible that these digital entities tinguishable from humans could mean the difference such themes. The 2013 film are today typically limited to between life and death. Her spins a tale around a man will employ a form of astoundingly sophis- cameo appearances in action While computer-generated who develops a romantic ticated mimicry, mastering the memories, movies, except in a few rare characters may, on the surface, relationship with what the the social conventions, and the messy and costly feature films. But be indistinguishable from movie calls an intelligent when they become the norm their human counterparts, “operating system,” akin to welter of emotions that underpin human on video-game displays as no one believes they’ll be an extremely smart Siri. relationships. They’ll either understand well as on cinema screens, reflecting all the nuances of “Sometimes,” Saygin says, us or fake it so well it won’t matter. they might not only play inter- human expression anytime “I think, in the Darwinian way, active games with us. They soon. Even so, people will likely that things that aren’t good for And to quote the movie title, that’s might start playing lasting spend more and more time us won’t be part of our future. entertainment. n games with our minds. interacting with them. They’ll But look at smoking—people The human brain evolved not only be entertainers but got addicted even though to understand the subtle also teachers and customer- it was bad for them, and we post your comments at http:// cues of people’s emotions in service agents. And there are only now correcting that spectrum.ieee.org/movies0614 order to anticipate their future lies the danger, according behavior.” —T.S.P.

illustration by MCKIBILLO SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | north american | jun 2014 | 53

06.Future.Entertainment.NA.indd 53 5/15/14 3:23 PM The Rise of the Personal Power Plant Agile power systems will let every home and business generate, store, and share electricity By Jean Kumagai

At first glance, downtown Fort Collins, Colorado, looks like a sweet anachronism. Beautifully preserved 19th- century buildings beckon from leafy streets. A restored trolley car ding-dings its way along Mountain Avenue. It’s safe and spotless, vibrant and unrushed. • And yet this quaint district is ground zero for one of the most ambitious energy agendas of any municipality in the United States. Fort Collins, population 150 000, is trying to do something that no other community of its size has ever done: transform its downtown into a net-zero-energy district, meaning it will consume no more energy in a given year than it generates. And the city as a whole is aiming to reduce its carbon emissions by 80 percent by 2030, on the way to being carbon neutral by midcentury. To make all that happen, engineers there are preparing to

54 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG photograph by Adam Voorhes

06.Future.Energy.NA.indd 54 5/9/14 3:53 PM 06.Future.Energy.NA.indd 55 5/9/14 3:53 PM aggressively deploy an array of advanced energy technologies, including combined- cycle gas turbines to replace aging coal- fired plants, as well as rooftop solar photovoltaics, community-supported solar gardens, wind turbines, thermal and electricity storage, microgrids, and energy-efficiency schemes. It’s an audacious plan. But for Fort Collins Utilities, the local electric company, the less daring options were unacceptable. Like utilities all over the world, it is grappling with the dissolution of the traditional regulated-monopoly model of electricity production, with its single, centralized decision maker. The costs of solar and wind electricity generation have fallen to the point that countless consumers in many countries now produce their own electricity, often (but not always) with the blessing of regulators and policymakers. The question now is, how far do we want to go? In the coming decades, technology will let us radically decentralize the grid, enabling businesses, factories, campuses, and households to provide their own electricity for much of the day MORE BEER, fewer WATTS: Solar panels at the New Belgium Brewing Co. in Fort Collins, Colo., supply 3 percent of the plant’s electricity. The brewery is participating in the city’s long-term plans to and most of the year. Solar energy, fuel create a net-zero-energy downtown district and to become carbon neutral by midcentury. cells, and wind turbines will all be cheaper than they are now. Power requirements will also be reduced, because heating, and nucle ar waste are reduced. But large- they begin numbering in the hundreds of cooling, appliances, and lighting will all scale changes to the power system can thousands or even millions, the strain on

be more efficient. Advances in batteries take decades to put into place. So now is a grid not designed to handle them will (3) and other forms of energy storage will the time to envision what the grid should become potentially disastrous. rewing B make it easier to ride out the inevitable look like in 2030 and beyond.

variations in solar and wind power and the Such a future won’t happen—in Fort elgium B

reactive-power challenges that will arise. Collins or anywhere else—without over- The electricity industry is un- ew N And smart grids, microgrids, and other coming significant challenges. These dergoing the same sort of fundamental : age p technologies will knit these many micro- include not just technological but also po- change that has already transformed tele- his T generators together in nimble networks litical and regulatory issues. Today, ev ery communications and computing, says

that will let people sell excess energy and time a homeowner installs photovoltaic Clark Gellings, a fellow at the Electric Finlay; obin

capacity while drawing from the main panels on the roof and begins spinning Power Research Institute (EPRI), in Palo R : : grid as needed. the household electricity meter back- Alto, Calif. Recall the heyday of the tele- tylist S

Taken together, these advances will ward, every time a plug-in hybrid owner phone landline, when a monopoly pro- p underpin a more sustainable energy fu- decides to charge up the car batteries, and vided reliable service, with few bells and ture, in which nuclear and fossil fuels every time a new wind turbine starts to no whistles. Today, a multitude of telecom play a gradually declining role and the turn, it perturbs the grid. Though those providers offer more wired and wireless

effects of pollution, greenhouse gases, individual perturbations may be slight, as options and services than most people, Pro Page: Previous

56 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG

06.Future.Energy.NA.indd 56 5/9/14 3:53 PM frankly, care to contemplate. Comput- rates are typically more than ers, similarly, used to mean giant main- 40 cents a kilowatt-hour, having your own solar PV frames accessed via remote terminals. But array with battery storage when CPUs and memory became cheap now makes economic sense enough and powerful enough, people for anyone who can afford it. In a recent report, The could own their own computers, access Economics of Grid Defection, and exchange information via the Internet, the Rocky Mountain Institute and leverage the power of distributed predicted when that “grid parity” tipping point would computation in the cloud. occur in five U.S. regions. Gellings envisions an analogue for In Los Angeles and in New electricity that he calls the ElectriNet: York’s Westchester County, for example, it could happen a highly interconnected and interactive as early as 2020. Advances network of power systems that also com- in other local generation bines telecommunications, the Internet, options, such as combined heat and power systems that and e-commerce. (Gellings first unveiled run off hydrogen fuel cells, the then-heretical notion of electricity could encourage even more customers managing their own usage— people to leave the grid. What Could Possibly Go Wrong? The report was intended a concept he called “demand-side load as a wake-up call, Mandel management”—in the December 1981 issue says. “When grid defection of IEEE Spectrum.) Such a network will becomes viable, it’s not a ‘could happen,’ it’s a ‘will allow traditional utilities to intelligently The Slow happen.’ ” So six years or connect with individual households, ser- maybe a little longer, he says, vice providers, and as yet unforeseen elec- “is how long we have to figure out a better model.” tricity players, fostering the billions of Death of The preferred future, daily electricity “transactions” that will according to the report’s take place between generators and con- authors and many other power experts, is a grid with sumers. Smart appliances in the home will the Grid even greater connectivity be able to respond to changes in electric- Too many off-grid personal and smarts. The worst-case ity prices automatically by, for instance, scenario, says Clark Gellings, power stations will undermine a fellow at the Electric Power turning themselves off or on as prices rise communal infrastructure Research Institute, is that “the or fall. The ElectriNet will also allow for smart grid isn’t really smart. home security, data and communication It’s dumb, and we don’t get the interconnectivity right.” In services, and the like. The price of photovoltaic the Rocky Mountain Institute, that bleak future, customers In addition, Gellings says, advanced cells continues to plummet in Boulder, Colo. “As a who once had access to sensors deployed throughout the net- while their efficiency result, it leaves those least relatively cheap and reliable continues to rise. Batteries able to afford a personal service will face enormous work will let grid operators visualize the and other energy-storage power station—low-income price swings and frequent, power system in real time, a key capabil- technologies are also customers, those who rent chronic blackouts. And ity for detecting faults, physical attacks, getting better, prompting or have bad credit—to pick without a robust, sustainable more people to unplug from up the cost of the grid.” grid, the other swell futures and cyberattacks and for preventing or the grid. If current trends And those homeowners envisioned elsewhere in at least mitigating outages. continue, the result could be and businesses going it this issue—self- driving While distributed generation is already catastrophic, not just for the alone might find operating cars, household robots, utilities but for anyone who and maintaining their own thought-detecting wearable taking hold in many places, Gellings wants access to affordable, “utility in a box” expensive computers, and so on—won’t notes, “we have to move toward a truly stable electricity. and time-consuming, he come to pass either. integrated power system. That’s a system Here’s why. “When you adds. Needless to say, as “My preferred vision of the have mass defection from their revenues erode, grid future isn’t at all inevitable,” that makes the best use of distributed the grid, that means many operators will hardly be Gellings admits. “That’s and central resources—because central people are overinvesting viable. “That’s a future we’d why I’m out there every day, power generation is not going to go away, in individual, unnetworked rather not see,” Mandel says. traveling around the country, assets to meet their own In some places, though, meeting with regulators and although it may change in shape and peak energy demands,” says that future is already here. utilities, trying to get the form.” [For more on the undesirability James Mandel, a manager at In Hawaii, where electricity message across.” —J.K.

illustration by MCKIBILLO SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | north american | jun 2014 | 57

06.Future.Energy.NA.indd 57 5/9/14 3:53 PM of grid defection, see the sidebar, “The Slow Death of the Grid.”] A highly intelligent and agile network that can handle the myriad transactions taking place among hundreds of thousands or even millions of individual energy producers and consumers isn’t just desirable, say experts. It has to happen, because the alternative would be grim. Just ask the Germans. Generous subsidies, called feed-in tariffs, for renewable energy resulted in the country adding 30 gigawatts of solar and 30 gigawatts of wind power in just a few years. On a bright breezy day at noon, renewables can account for more than half of Germany’s generated electricity. “That sounds like a good thing, but to the utility, it looked like a huge negative Watts Where None Existed Before: A reimagined energy future with more distributed generation, load,” notes Benjamin Kroposki, director of storage, and microgrids isn’t just for people in wealthy countries. It will also include those who have no access energy systems integration at the National to electricity—that’s nearly 1.3 billion people right now. Indeed, it’s already happening. SharedSolar, a project Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, started by Columbia University’s Vijay Modi and some of his students, is rolling out small photovoltaic arrays connected by a microgrid in villages across sub-Saharan Africa. Households and businesses prepay for their Colo. When a large amount of renewable electricity, in much the same way they might prepay for cellphone service. power is being generated, the output of conventional central power plants is cor- respondingly reduced to keep the system spike or some other grid disturbance occurs, and wind systems integrate with the grid balanced. But if a local outage or a voltage protective circuitry quickly shuts down in ways that help overall system stability.” the photovoltaics’ inverters. (Inverters are semiconductor-based systems that convert the direct current from the solar cells to A sizable Japanese experiment alternating current.) And that in turn can is taking such an integrated approach. At lead to cascading systemwide instabilities. a site 30 minutes by train from central “If you lose 30 gigawatts in just 10 cycles”— Tokyo, a real estate developer is turn- two-tenths of a second, that is—“you can’t ing an old golf course into a planned ramp up conventional generators quickly smart city called Kashiwanoha. Energy, enough to compensate,” Kroposki notes. water, and other public services for an time capsule: 1964 So the Germans had to spend the equiva- eventual population of 26 000 are being Carbon lent of hundreds of millions of dollars on intelligently managed at every scale, from Dioxide smarter inverters and communication links individual households to businesses and that would allow the PV arrays to automati- factories to citywide networks. Laser cally ride through any disturbances rather The smart-city concept has been kicking than simply shut down. around for a while. But it didn’t re ally take After finishing hisP h.D. at Stanford, C. Kumar N. Patel Customers are paying dearly for those hold in Japan until the Fukushima disast er joined Bell Labs and led upgrades: Electricity rates in Germany in March 2011, says Akihiko Tobe, ge neral the team that in 1964 have doubled since 2002, to about manager of Hitachi’s smart-city project developed the most powerful continuously operating 40 U.S. cents per kilowatt-hour. That’s division, which is furnishing the energy olar

laser. The carbon dioxide more than four times the price of elec- management systems for Kashiwanoha. S laser is now used for cutting tricity in Illinois. Many other countries “The earthquake changed everything,” hared

diamonds, analyzing the upper S atmosphere, and removing are now learning from these experiences, Tobe says. “Many cities suffered great hoto: hoto:

tumors, among other things. Kroposki adds, “to make sure that solar damage, with power breakdowns and p

58 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG photo-illustration by Gluekit

06.Future.Energy.NA.indd 58 5/9/14 3:53 PM water shutdowns. In tall buildings, elderly be replicated? “A good electricity future ing coal user, will add about 530 gigawatts people were trapped on high floors be- will depend on every new technology of coal-fired power capacity by 2040, the cause the elevators stopped working.” you can think of,” says EPRI’s Gellings. report projects. And so coal’s share of And so Kashiwanoha’s electricity system “Energy storage, device efficiency, bet- electricity generation worldwide in 2040 is designed to provide uninterrupted ser- ter ways to mine coal and extract natural will likely be just a few percentage points vice to critical systems like elevators, wa ter gas, grid sensors, more advanced genera- below what it was in 2010. pumps, and hospitals in the event of an tion.” Should any one of these technolo- And once those new plants come on emergency. To do that, it relies on several gies not progress in the way that experts line, they’ll be hard to budge. “This is a battery storage sites as well as a microgrid, now assume they will, it could throw a very inertial field,” says Vaclav Smil, who’s which facilitates the sharing of electricity wrench in the works, he says. Regulators studied the slow pace of change in the and can operate in isolation power industry. “A single power plant of the main grid. A command costs like a billion dollars to build. Once center on the second floor of you put it in place, you don’t want to tear a hotel and apartment build- it out and start again. So innovation will ing oversees the microgrid “A good happen mainly at the margins.” and tracks exactly where Innovation at the margins could still electricity is being consumed electricity lead to profound changes in the future and generated. During nor- grid, if cities like Fort Collins and Kashi- mal operation, customers are wanoha get it right. Fifty years from now, also encouraged to track their future will says Steve Catanach, manager of light own energy usage through and power at Fort Collins Utilities, the touch-screen monitors in depend on two coal-fired plants from which the city their homes and businesses. draws 80 percent of its electricity will no Those who do an especially longer be active. Taking their place will good job of reducing their every new be new combined-cycle gas turbines but consumption are awarded also a larger share of distributed genera- “eco points,” which they can technology tion. These days, the utility is actively en- exchange for goods and ser- couraging investments in wind and solar vices at the local LaLaPort through a new feed-in tariff, which will let shopping center. you can customers sell their electricity back to the Eventually, says Tobe, grid at a guaranteed rate. Greater use of more home automation will think of” demand-response mechanisms will allow be added, like sensors that customers to curtail their usage during automatically turn off lights times of peak demand. And when energy when the curtains are opened. Health- and policymakers will also need to be con- storage becomes affordable, Catanach care monitoring will also be offered, to vinced to make the hefty investments in adds, “we’ll use that to balance the vari- track things like how much exercise you infrastructure that a smarter integrated ability of the renewables.” get and how many calories you eat. Peo- grid will require. While some industry experts are wring- ple who move to Kas hiwanoha realize Even if all these changes come to pass, ing their hands over the looming “death that the city represents a break with the the grid in 2064 will still look a lot like spiral” for today’s utilities, Catanach man- past, says Tobe. “Their mind-set is that today’s grid in some key ways. Big coal ages to sound optimistic about what’s they’re establishing a new culture, and plants, for instance, will remain a large to come. “Fort Collins is a great place they’re highly motivated to participate part of the energy mix. According to the to live, and the lights are always on,” he in making life better.” U.S. Energy Information Administration’s says. He’s pretty sure that 50 years from International Energy Outlook 2013, the now, people will still be able to say the United States, Australia, and many other same thing. n Assuming that forward-looking countries will retire their aging coal plants,

cities like Fort Collins and Kashiwanoha but other countries will continue to build post your comments at http:// reach their energy goals, can that success new ones. China, already the world’s lead- spectrum.ieee.org/energy0614

SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | north american | jun 2014 | 59

06.Future.Energy.NA.indd 59 5/9/14 3:53 PM Robot, You Can Drive My Car Autonomous driving will push humans into the passenger seat By Philip E. Ross

Sixty years ago this month, Isaac Asimov published a short story about a self-driving “automatobile” called Sally who had not only judgment but feelings, which spelled doom for the man who loved her. • It will happen— and it won’t. Fully automated cars will be common. Those cars will have judgment, and this will upend our lives, our work, and our cities. But cars will have no more feeling than IBM’s Deep Blue had back in 1997, when it beat the world chess champion. Well, two out of three isn’t half bad, even for an Asimov. • Today you can buy a top-of-the-line S-Class car from Mercedes-Benz that figuratively says “ahem” when you begin to stray out of your lane or tailgate. If you do nothing, it’ll turn the wheel slightly or lightly apply the brakes. And if you’re still intent on crash- ing, it will take command. In 5 years, cars will be quicker to

60 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG illustration by Ben Wiseman

06.Future.Cars.Space.NA.indd 60 5/14/14 1:33 PM 06.Future.Cars.Space.NA.indd 61 5/14/14 1:33 PM intervene; in 20, they won’t need your in their recent book, The Second Machine Research Projects Agency’s autonomous advice; and in 30, they won’t take it. Age, in which they describe their 2012 spin vehicle race. Two years later, Google hired Accident rates will plummet, parking in the Google self-driving car as almost Thrun. And in 2010 Thrun’s group un- problems will vanish, streets will narrow, “boring” because the car drove “exactly veiled Google’s car. cities will bulk up, and commuting by auto the way we’re all taught to in driver’s ed.” Why the sudden change? Maybe it had mobile will become a mere extension of They then note that the experience “was to do with the ongoing drop in the cost sleep, work, and recreation. With no steer- especially weird for us because only a few of radar, infrared imagers, sonar, GPS, ing column and no need for a crush zone in years earlier we were sure that computers and other sensors. Or maybe it was the front of the passenger compartment (after would not be able to drive cars.” dramatic improvement in the processing all, there aren’t going to be any crashes), Many others were just as sure. Read what power of embedded systems. Or it could car design will run wild: Collapsibility! Frank Levy of MIT and Richard Murnane be that engineers had just gotten comfort- Stackability! Even interchangeability, be- of Harvard wrote about the challenge of able with such building-block technolo- cause when a car can come when called, city driving back in 2004, in their book gies as adaptive cruise control, automatic pick up a second or third passenger for a The New Division of Labor: parking, and navigation. fee, and park itself, even the need to own In any case, by the beginning of this de- As the driver makes his left turn against the thing will dwindle. traffic, he confronts a wall of images and cade every major automaker was work- “When we modeled that for Ann Arbor, sounds generated by oncoming cars, ing on autonomous driving. The most Mich., we found we’d need only 15 per- traffic lights, storefronts, billboards, in-your-face firm, as usual, is Nissan trees, and a traffic policeman. Using his cent of the cars now owned there,” for a knowledge, he must estimate the size Motor Co., whose chief executive, Carlos per-mile cost savings of 75 percent, says and position of each of these obj ects Ghosn, recently promised to introduce not Larry Burns, director of the Program on and the likelihood that they pose a one car but a line of cars that can drive hazard…. Articulating this knowledge Sustainable Mobility at the Earth Institute and embedding it in software for all but themselves—by 2020. Big talk, you may of Columbia University, in New York City. highly structured situations are at pres- say, but in 2007 Ghosn vowed to deliver Burns is no ivory-tower academic: In his ent enormously difficult tasks. the all-electric Leaf by 2010, and he did. previous job he headed up research and Interesting, also, is Volvo’s growing in- development for General Motors. vestment in autonomous driving tech- What’s most striking about the new A year after those lines were nology. As part of the European research thinking is how suddenly it jelled. Two written, Sebastian Thrun led the Stan- project known as SARTRE (Social Attitudes MIT economists, Erik Brynjolfsson and ford team’s car to victory in the DARPA to Road Traffic Risk in Europe), the final Andrew McAfee, write about the switch Grand Challenge, the Defense Advanced version of which ran from 2009 to 2012,

2014 NHTSA issues draft of 2018–2019 Expected launch of first Learning to Think proposed rule making for vehicles with vehicle-to-vehicle and autonomous driving vehicle-to-infrastructure communication Sixty-five years of automotive baby steps 2012 Nevada offers licenses for autonomous cars 2020 Limited self- driving expected to 1948 Modern cruise begin, starting with control invented 2010 Google Car debuts. It traffic-jam assist takes a blind man for tacos 1966 Mechanical antilock braking 2013 Mercedes “Bertha” installed in a standard production 2007 DARPA’s third AG takes itself on a road 2030 Fully car, the British Jensen FF driverless-car competition, trip. Mercedes S-Class gets autonomous cars the DARPA Urban Challenge highway autonomy (but (with no driver requires attentive driver as backup) 1968 Electronic cruise a backup) control invented ZZ 2025 Fully autonomous cars Z 1987 Electronic stability (with driver backup) tested control invented by BMW, Bosch, and Mercedes

1995 Mitsubishi Diamante introduces 2001 Nissan Cima introduces 2003 Toyota Harrier comes with 2032 Half of all new cars laser-based adaptive cruise control lane-departure warning system precrash mitigation system are autonomous

62 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG illustration by James Provost

06.Future.Cars.Space.NA.indd 62 5/14/14 1:33 PM Volvo supplied cars that automatically fol- than walking. We know lowed in a line behind a truck driven by a this will happen because it already has—for air travel. professional driver, saving effort and fuel. There will be other little A lead engineer in that project, Erik problems. The early robocars Coelingh, says Volvo is using a fleet of 100 will be tuned to “extra polite,” allowing aggressive human cars to test out autonomy in the Swedish drivers to practically run them city of Gothenburg. Such validation will off the road. Lawyers will have take time, he adds, no matter how fast a field day when something goes wrong. And the very other technologies may advance. “Even connectedness of cars— if you’ve tested the system in 10 cars and to one another and to the it works fine, with not a single incident, it roads and signage—will take away the anonymity of the doesn’t tell you a lot about how 100 000 passengers. You’ll never drive cars will do on the road.” alone—even if you want to. He sees the technology advancing by Even the cities, relieved of most of their burden of cars, degrees, beginning in test-bed cities like iDrive will also miss the revenue Gothenburg and in places where pedes- from parking fees. And public- trians aren’t allowed—say, within mines transit systems, like subways, What Could Possibly Go Wrong? will suffer for lack of business. in Australia, where huge robotrucks are But really, the worst single already carrying ore. Next come traf- thing that could happen is that fic jams, where movement is slow and the autonomous car might not happen fast enough—not until there is no oncoming traffic. Then, he When the very end of the forecasting says, come selected routes, every meter horizon of this special issue of of which has been carefully validated, so IEEE Spectrum. “Really automatic, as for that a driver can just “punch a button to 99% Safe a blind driver? Fifty years,” drive autonomously.” says Jens Desens, a Daimler Testing will proceed road by road and engineer who works on his company’s experimental city by city, Coelingh says, building to the Isn’t Safe autonomous car and ought point at which cars can plan the route and to know. He waves both take you there, from door to door. But he hands for emphasis, which he can do because the car figures it’ll be 10 years for the first com- Enough is doing all the driving. mercial robocars (that’s three more years The dangers of autonomous-drive We’re outside Stuttgart, than Ghosn predicts), and 20 before they cruising along an autobahn in technology arise just as a Mercedes S-Class tricked take up a big share of new sales. However, it approaches perfection out with extra sensors. Unlike he allows, autonomy could come faster in the experimental version, it places where much of the infrastructure can’t handle city streets, but The worst thing that To stop that from happening, it sure knows how to pass a is only now being put in, like China. (By will accompany the march this year’s Mercedes S-Class slowpoke on a highway. the way, Volvo is now owned by Geely of robocar technology will car actually sounds an alarm “Come on,” I sputter, after Automobile, a Chinese firm.) come when cars are almost if the driver’s hand leaves the just such a demonstration. but not quite autonomous. wheel for more than 10 sec- “If this car can do this now, Where infrastructure is designed with Their prowess will lull all- onds. Expect such backseat what won’t it be able to do in robocars in mind, many of the hardest too-human drivers into driving to get worse as self- a decade?” problems will be easy to solve. Cars will complacency. driving technology gets better. Desens sits back, his hands “Automating the vehicle is A second problem will be in his lap (of course), and sighs. talk to the road, to the traffic signs, and to a long continuum,” says Josh the eye-catching nature of the “Look, we started in the one another. What one car up ahead can Switkes, founder and chairman few accidents that do happen ’60s and ’70s last century to see, all will know about. Even the prob- of Peloton Technology, which when cars routinely speed develop this radar,” he says is working on automating along with a 2-meter gap with another sigh. “It was lem of identifying pedestrians lurking trucks. “If the driver doesn’t between them. In that world, this big”—his hands spread behind shrubbery will finally fade away: do anything most of the time anything that goes wrong for way out again—“like three After all, if cars can talk to signs, they can but still has to do emergency one car will go wrong for a lot suitcases. We started to sell braking? That’s not good. He of cars, and nobody will heed it only in 1999. So 25 years certainly talk to the cellphone in your doesn’t pay attention—he’s not those who cite the statistics of development just for the pocket. Traffic | continued on page 90 there when you need him.” showing that driving is safer radar sensor.” —P.E.R.

illustration by MCKIBILLO SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | north american | jun 2014 | 63

06.Future.Cars.Space.NA.indd 63 5/14/14 1:33 PM Postcards from 2064 As I See It I, for one, welcome our robot overlords

Photography by Dan Saelinger

64 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG

06.Future.AsSeen.NA.indd 64 5/12/14 9:53 AM Prop styling by Dominique Baynes; CGI by Swell SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | north american | jun 2014 | 65

06.Future.AsSeen.NA.indd 65 5/12/14 9:53 AM Beyond Words Wearable computers will let us share thoughts and sensations By Ariel Bleicher

In August of 1961, fabled mathematicians Edward O. Thorp and Claude Shannon, of MIT, walked into a Las Vegas casino. They intended to try their luck at roulette, a game in which players bet on where a whirling ball will land after falling from an outer stationary track onto an inner spinning wheel. But they weren’t typical gamblers. • They worked as a team. Shannon watched the wheel, clandestinely clocking the speeds of the rotor and the ball by flipping mic roswitches in his shoe with his big toe. The signals coursed through wires that ran up his pant leg to a small computer strapped to his waist. The machine calculated the ball’s final resting position and then transmitted this prediction wirelessly to a receiver under Thorp’s shirt. Through a tiny speaker in his ear, Thorp heard one of eight distinct tones that advised him

66 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG photograph by Adam Voorhes

06.Future.Wearables.NA.indd 66 5/12/14 9:24 AM 06.Future.Wearables.NA.indd 67 5/12/14 9:24 AM on how to bet. To his and Shannon’s de- worse with wearables. “We can put a re ally light, he reported years later, this new- powerful computer in a smart watch, or into found faculty increased the duo’s odds of Google Glass, or whatever the next form fac- winning by 44 percent, and they “often tor will be,” says Chris Harrison, an assistant turned a few dimes into a pile.” professor of human-computer interaction Engineers widely regard this invention at Carnegie Mellon University, in Pittsburgh. as the first wearable computer—an early “So the question is, How do you get input glimpse at today’s fitness trackers, smart into something so small?” watches, and augmented-reality eye- In the coming era of wearable computing, wear, and their possible descendants: as Harrison foresees it, we will manipulate electronic contact lenses, haptic under- digital bits the same way we do real objects— garments, brain-reading caps, body- with our hands. “Touch is a really powerful, monitoring tattoos, gesture-recognizing wonderfully intuitive thing,” he says, add- rings, speech-detecting tongue piercings, ing that although the touch screens on to- and touch-sensitive sleeves, pleats, but- day’s smartphones, tablets, and watches tons, and zippers. Compared with today’s are a step in the right direction, “they’re powerful all-purpose processors, the MIT pretty lame.” The gestures they recognize mathematicians’ machine wasn’t much— are disappointingly few, including one- and just 12 transistors hand-soldered in an multifinger taps, swipes, and pinches. “We analog circuit. Yet the impact on its wear- don’t do things in the real world based on ers was profound—foretelling, perhaps, a the number of fingers we poke at things,” future when we depend on our electronic he quips. “There are all these other, really devices to experience life as much as we rich dimensions of touch that touch screens rely on our eyes, ears, and skin. ignore”—such as pressure, contact area, the “We will get to a point when we stop think- shape of your hand, and whether you use ing of technologies as external to our bod- a pad, knuckle, or nail. TOUCHABLES: Carnegie Mellon’s Chris ies,” says Desney Tan, an expert in computer Harrison demonstrates Touch Tools, To explore more diverse types of virtual interfaces at Microsoft Research, in Red- an app he built to explore new ways of touch, Harrison does what he calls “time- mond, Wash. Wearables will always be on interacting with screens. In the future, he machine research.” In a bright, airy labo- says, distinct hand gestures could replace and immediately accessible. Donning them, traditional toolbars. ratory that he has adorned with obsolete he forecasts, will allow us to “sense and PCs and hand-welded sculptures made of capture many more things about the world” discarded cameras and cellphones, he and to communicate those sensations in and his students build prototypes of pos- (3) new ways. For example, on-body displays sible future interfaces by hacking or cob- niversity could let people use images to express ideas Electronic communication has bling together existing technologies. From U in face-to-face conversations. Brain-activity long been limited not by computing pow er a table cluttered with to-go cups, cables, monitors could capture emotions and add but by the ability of machines to under- laptops, watch parts, and mannequin them automatically to text messages. Haptic stand us. The human and the computer hands, he produces an iPad. fabrics could let a father-to-be experience possess “enormously powerful information- “Think about the natural ways you use Page: Carnegie Mellon Mellon Carnegie Page:

the kicking of his unborn baby. processing capabilities,” wrote Edward your hands,” he begins as he launches a his T Electric circuits are creeping ever closer Tufte, a data-visualization pioneer now at homespun app called Touch Tools. “Grasps,

to us—from our desktops to our laps, our Yale University, in 1989. “Yet communica- for example, are really iconic. How I hold Finlay; obin

pockets, and now our faces and wrists. And tion between the two must pass through a pen is very different from how I hold a R : : many engineers predict the trend will con- the low-resolution, low-information, dry eraser.” Pinching his middle and index tylist S

tinue: In the coming decades, computers narrow-band user interface of a video dis- fingers and thumb together as if clutching p will be seamlessly woven into our clothing, play terminal.” Your phone, in other words, an invisible stylus, he touches the screen fashioned into our jewelry, and painted on may be able to send a message in a split sec- with his fingertips. The gesture brings up our skin. Eventually, we may not be able to ond, but you can type only so fast. an image of a ballpoint pen, which he uses

distinguish their capabilities from our own. At first glance, it seems the problem gets to draw a doodle. He then widens his grip Pro Page: Previous

68 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG

06.Future.Wearables.NA.indd 68 5/12/14 9:24 AM about an inch, summoning a pink rubber game Angry Birds, Bible App, eraser. He erases his scribble. “So I don’t and Brightest Flashlight Free. “People don’t expect these need tool bars—I just change the shape of apps to collect location data,” my hand,” he says. He conjures a tape mea- he says, but they do. “They sure, using his other hand to extend the send it out to advertisers.” Records from wearables tape. Then comes a magnifying glass, a such as brain sensors could mouse, a camera. also be used in criminal inves- You might think that touch gestures won’t tigations, says Nita Farahany, who studies the legal impli- be very useful when people stop carrying cations of emerging tech- around screens and sleek wee wearables nologies at Duke University, become the norm. Not so. “If we’re clever in Durham, N.C. Under U.S. law, she explains, “you can’t about how we use our fingers, we can actu- be forced to testify against ally make interactions on even something yourself, but that doesn’t as small as a smart watch really quite pow- mean your body can’t be used against you.” If prosecutors erful,” Harrison says. With Gierad Laput, a can use fingerprints and DNA Ph.D. student, he has built a smart watch to get a conviction, what’s to that users can manipulate mechanically. stop them from using scans What Could Possibly Go Wrong? of a suspect’s thoughts or Four rice-grain-size sensors, which click emotional reactions? and pivot like miniature joysticks, detect The most vexing spies, when you shift, tilt, twist, or depress the however, may be wearers themselves. Wearables could face, providing “all these different degrees Your Body, allow you to watch yourself of freedom that let you interact with the so closely that you will stop watch in more expressive ways than just just being you. “Say I go out to dinner, and I have a great using a touch screen,” Laput says. To al- Broadcast- time,” imagines Stephen low for more expansive interactions, he Fairclough, a psycho suggests, future engineers could put light physiologist at Liverpool John Moores University, in projectors into watches or other wearables ing Live England. “Then I get home such as lapel pins, which would let people Wearable sensors could spill your and my smart watch tells use the space around these devices. me I was stressed. I think, innermost secrets ‘Was I?’ I start second- “Could you turn your skin into a touch guessing myself, and it screen?” Harrison interjects. “Could you changes the way I perceive turn this wall?” It’s already an all-too- blood pressure, and brain the experience.” If people rely familiar fear. You buy a smart activity—information you too readily on computerized As if on cue, Ph.D. student Robert Xiao gizmo or download an In ternet probably don’t want shared data to analyze their behavior presents a textbook-size box on a tripod. app in hopes it will entertain too widely. What if your boss and make sense of the world, The contraption, called WorldKit, contains you or make you healthier or could measure how focused he worries, “we may stop your life easier. But then you you are at work? What if your trusting our own instincts and a digital projector and a Microsoft Kinect wonder: Are criminals hacking spouse could know whom our own feelings.” depth camera wired to a laptop. Working my accounts? Are companies else you found attractive? Many engineers believe with Harrison and computer-science pro- profiting from a knowledge Without reliable security, that the technical challenges of my habits? Is the govern- clear privacy laws, and simple of building tiny wearable fessor Scott Hudson, Xiao programmed the ment collecting my texts user controls, the wearables machines will be easily system to “explode information on every and e-mails? generations might have overcome. “The last 50 years surface of the environment,” he explains. And if you fret about the few secrets left to keep. have been about evolving fate of data being gathered People might give up data technology,” says Desney He swipes his palm across the wall, trigger- by the smartphone in your unwittingly, lured by cheap Tan at Microsoft Research, ing a soft yellow glow that trails his hand. pocket, you’ll shudder at deals and ignorant of the fine referring to developments “When I lift my hand up, it’s actually a multi the thought of what could print of privacy policies, says in electronics that could one leak from hardware in your Jason Hong, a privacy and day allow wearables to vastly touch surface.” clothes or on your skin. security expert at Carnegie extend the abilities of Homo “We’re painting interfaces onto the world,” Wearables will likely record Mellon. Smartphone users, he technologicus. “The next 50 Harrison says. “I could say, ‘I want a thermo not just what you do and points out, are often surprised will be about inventing the whom you talk to but also the that many free apps keep human being.” stat here and a calendar there,’ or ‘I want states of your mind and body, close tabs on them. He fingers So let’s make sure we get this whole wall to be blue.’ ” including your heart rate, a few notorious snoops: the it right. —A.B.

illustration by MCKIBILLO SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | north american | jun 2014 | 69

06.Future.Wearables.NA.indd 69 5/12/14 9:24 AM personal assistant,” says Justine Cassell, a computer-science professor and codirector of the project. The software sidekick she has in mind “will constantly be learning about you and becoming more personalized.” It will know—without your input—what cuisines you like, who your friends are, and that you might enjoy that new shop across the street. Your phone already collects a good deal of intelligence on you—through your GPS trail, browsing history, texts, calendars, e-mails, and online social networks. But wearables will be able to gather much more. Sensors exist or are in the works that can observe your breath, sweat, gaze, facial expressions, heart rate, muscle MIND-READING MACHINE: A volunteer tests a brain-computer interface being developed at the movements, and sleep patterns, as well U.S. Army Research Laboratory. The system can identify when a user spots a potential threat, such as as the ambient temperature and air qual- a person with a gun, simply by observing brain activity. ity. And now scientists are starting to develop wearable technologies that can “You want a light switch?” Xiao asks, T he gadgets we’ll wear won’t eavesdrop on the brain. and one appears next to Harrison’s of- just be handier than those we now have to Known as brain-computer interfaces, or fice door. “We actually had this control- carry. Wearables will be truly revolution- BCIs, these systems are found mostly in re- ling the lights.” Xiao envisions a future in ary, some experts say, because they’ll learn search laboratories. They tend to be bulky which disc jockeys queue tracks on their things about us that we never tell them or and uncomfortable, and the information forearms and architects revise blueprints that we might not think they can extract from the on the walls of their clients’ homes. “In to find out for ourselves. brain is still crude. The 20 years, maybe people will go to Home The seeds of such a most common approach Depot and instead of buying lightbulbs, future are already here. is called electroencepha- they’ll be buying information bulbs.” Google’s digital personal lography, or EEG. A typ- In fact, future consumers may choose assistant, Now, has the ical setup consists of a from many different kinds of interfaces, smarts to figure out the headband or cap lined mixing and matching to satisfy their style locations of your home with anywhere from a and fancy. Other researchers are now in- and workplace just by few to a few hundred vestigating smart glasses that track eye tracking your move- time capsule: 1964 electrodes, which mea- movements, wristbands that capture ments during the day. BASIC sure voltage fluctuations hand gestures, tongue implants that Because it knows this produced by electrically recognize whispers, even neck tattoos information, it can, for Computer active brain cells, or neu- that pick up subvocalizations—the subtle instance, display on its Language rons. By the time these vibrations your throat muscles make when own initiative traffic signals reach the scalp, you imagine how a word sounds. updates on your phone Two Dartmouth professors, however, they are weak, John Kemeny and Thomas At the Georgia Institute of Technology, in 5 minutes before you be- Kurtz, and a team of jumbled, and incomplete, aboratory L

Atlanta, Clint Zeagler is designing interfaces gin your commute. undergraduate students making it difficult to pick h c for smart clothing, such as embroidered pat- In February, Yahoo developed the BASIC out subtle events, such

computer language in 1964. esear R

terns sewn with conductive thread, that us- announced a five-year During the mid-1970s, as thoughts or emotions, y m r A

ers can navigate by touch rather than sight. US $10 million part- Bill Gates and Paul Allen from the noise made by . S . “Why can’t my zipper be a scroll?” he asks. nership with Carnegie catapulted BASIC’s popularity other brain processes, U when they wrote a version “Why can’t my button for my pants be a but- Mellon to create the “next of the language for the MITS facial movements, and on Carty/ on

ton? Why can’t it turn on my pants?” next next-generation Altair 8800. nearby electronics. R

70 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG photo-Illustration by Gluekit

06.Future.Wearables.NA.indd 70 5/12/14 9:24 AM But engineers are beginning to over- of scenes—buildings, streets, fields. She they see, hear, and feel. The network of come these challenges. Using machine- is told to look for threats, such as people computers on a person’s body will then learning techniques, they have trained with guns. At five images per second, the use these data to build digital represen- computers to recognize certain general pictures flash by too fast for her to react tations of how he or she perceives the states of mind from EEG recordings, in- physically to each one, even to press a but- world. For instance, your wearables might cluding attention, arousal, fatigue, stress, ton. All the while, the BCI monitors elec- track every gesture that calms you, every and cognitive load. Early prototype BCIs trical pulses from her brain, and when it sound that surprises you, every remark can also detect when a person decides sees signals suggesting she has spotted a that makes you swear under your breath. to act, identifies something he or she is shooter, it tags those images “threat.” The Over time, these machines will learn to looking for, or becomes fully focused on scientists have found that the computer anticipate your actions and emotions and a task—a mental state known as flow or identifies these targets correctly at least will automatically tailor your environment “in the zone.” Their inventors are confi- 85 percent of the time. to suit your needs—muting your alerts dent that these technologies when you’re in an important meeting, will be commonplace. dimming the lights when you drift off to “Say you’re walking down sleep. They may even recognize subtle the street,” imagines Paul cues you don’t notice or can’t sense, such Sajda, a BCI expert at Co- “Your com- as early signs of depression or the onset lumbia University, in New of a migraine. York City. “You’ve got your puter will And when our computers know us bet- Google Glass on, with ter than we know ourselves, they will EEG sensors embedded help us to communicate better with one in the frames.” You notice act as an another. They will monitor our conver- things—a pretty bird, a flashy sations and inform us when others are car—and your future Glass extension bored, inspired, hurt, grateful, or just not notices you noticing. If it on the same page. They will encourage also tracks your gaze, it can us to speak up when we are shy, stop us identify what you’re look- of your own from sending e-mails when we are angry, ing at. Maybe your Glass and remind us of what makes us happier tells you something useful— mind” when we are sad. the species of that bird, the Thad Starner, a professor at Georgia make of that car. Maybe it Tech and a technical lead for Google Glass, takes a picture. “A very simple app might In just a few years, McDowell and Lance has worn some version of a computerized be a stuff-I-thought-was-interesting-today speculate, BCIs could be used commer- head-up display for 21 years. He uses a scrapbook,” Sajda proposes. cially to train computer-vision systems or one-handed keyboard to take notes and help military analysts sift through aerial browse the Web. One day, he’s sure, he footage from satellites and drones. In a will no longer need to search for perti- For many researchers who work few decades? Okay, we’ll dream big, they nent information because his Glass will in wearable computing, the ultimate goal say: Brain-sensing and brain-modeling listen to his conversations and intuitively is to design machines that use data from technologies will advance enough to be fetch the data for him. It will appear be- the brain and body to understand the able to observe emotions, desires, and fore his eyes as quickly and unobtrusively world in human terms. For example, Kaleb comprehension. Other researchers fan- as if he were recalling a memory. “Your McDowell and Brent Lance at the U.S. tasize that BCIs might someday record computer will act as an extension of your Army Research Laboratory, in Aberdeen, perceptions, dreams, and maybe even in- own mind,” he prophesies. Md., and their colleagues are developing ternal speech—the voice you hear in your Sooner or later, our electronic gizmos a BCI that categorizes images based on head when you talk to yourself. will no longer be possessions we take or how a person’s brain responds to them. In the future, people will wear BCIs leave behind. They will be us. n In the system’s current iteration, a constantly while also sporting cameras,

volunteer wears a cap studded with microphones, and other sensors that post your comments at http:// 64 electrodes while watching a series will simultaneously record everything spectrum.ieee.org/mobile0614

SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | north american | jun 2014 | 71

06.Future.Wearables.NA.indd 71 5/12/14 9:24 AM wha t could go right? I don’t stop. I finish the first passage, then play the second, and start into the third. “Now, hold on!” Starner interjects. Download, “Have you played this before?” “Never,” I say. It’s true—I never took piano lessons. Befuddled, he inspects the Practice, Done glove and discovers it’s been programmed to vibrate all four phrases of the song— Wearables could help you learn new skills 61 notes, not 15. Typically, he explains, he with superhuman speed and his students teach only one phrase at a time. I approach the keyboard again. I fumble a few tries—I’m learning, after all— but within minutes, I can play the melody The glove looks hum- perfectly. I feel giddy, like I’ve just discov- drum, like a garment you ered an innate talent I never knew I had. might pick up at a sporting- “You just know what to do—it’s insane,” goods store. It’s made of soft Seim notes. She recently taught herself to black leather and fingerless, play “Ode to Joy” by wearing the glove while writing an application for a research grant. like a cyclist’s or weight lifter’s “It’s almost like watching a phantom hand.” glove. The similarity is, how- Starner and his colleagues believe ever, deceiving. that the repeated buzzing from the glove creates a muscle memory that enables “I have a glove that can teach you how a language-tr anslation app for Glass, a a wearer to learn to play a song with far to play a piano melody,” Thad Starner de- magnetic tongue implant for voicing silent less practice than it would take without clares when I call to chat about the future commands to a computer, a smart vest to haptic stimulation. They have also stud- of wearable computing. Now a professor help divers communicate with dolphins, ied the glove’s effect on people with spi- at the Georgia Institute of Technology smart chew toys to help police dogs com- nal cord injuries and found that it can help and a technical lead of Google Glass, he municate with handlers, and all manner them re gain some sensation and dexter- helped pioneer the field in the 1990s as a of other wonderfully wacky wearables. ity in their hands. Most recently, the re- student at MIT. “During this conversation, Once every minute for the next 2 hours, searchers have shown that wearing haptic you could have learned ‘Amazing Grace.’ ” the motors in the glove vibrate across my gloves while doing other tasks can speed “Really?” I say. “While we’re talking?” fingers. I try to figure out the pattern: up the process of learning to type and read “Sure,” he says and invites me to Atlanta buzz…middle finger...buzz…ring fin…buzz… braille—evidence that the technology could to see for myself. buzz…ger...buzz…uh…buzz…buzz…crap. impart not just patterns but also language. Caitlyn Seim, a Ph.D student, slips the “IMPOSSIBLE,” I write in my notebook. “We don’t know the limits,” Starner says. glove onto my hand. Inside each of the five At last, Starner escorts me to a keyboard. “Can we put these sorts of vibration mo- finger holes she has sewn a flat vibration He plays the first passage of a song—15 notes tors on people’s legs and teach them how motor. The five tiny vibrators, which perch that the glove has supposedly taught me. to dance? Can we teach people how to atop my digits like gemstones on rings, are I recognize the tune. It’s Beethoven’s throw a better baseball?” He mentions a wired to a microcontroller on the back of “Ode to Joy.” I take off the glove. scene from the sci-fi thrillerThe Matrix in my hand. Seim has programmed it to fire “Start here,” Starner says, hitting the which the film’s heroes, Neo and Trinity, the motors in the same sequence that my first note. I lay my fingers on the keys. hijack a helicopter: “Can you fly that thing?” fingers would strike keys on a piano. Middle finger…middle finger…ring finger… Neo asks his right-hand woman. “Not yet,” But she doesn’t tell me which tune “I don’t know,” I say, embarrassed. Trinity says. Her eyelids flicker as the knowl- I’ll be learning. “You’ll just feel a little “Don’t think about it,” Starner says. edge pours through a data port at the back buzzing,” she says, flipping on the elec- I start again. Middle…middle…ring… of her skull. Seconds later they’re in the air. ia Tech ia

tronics. Then Starner whisks me away to pinky…pinky…ring…middle…pointer…. “Of course you can’t do that,” I say. g

show off his lab’s myriad other projects: “This is crazy!” I say, still playing. And Starner grins. “Not yet.” —A.B. Geor

72 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG

06.Future.Haptics.NA.indd 72 5/12/14 9:40 AM Instant Access to IEEE Publications

Enhance your IEEE print subscription with “IEEE is the umbrella that online access to the IEEE Xplore® digital library. allows us all to stay current with technology trends.”

■ Download papers the day they are published Dr. Mathukumalli Vidyasagar Head, Bioengineering Dept. ■ Discover related content in IEEE Xplore University of Texas, Dallas

■ Signiﬁ cant savings over print with an online institutional subscription

Start today to maximize your research potential.

Contact: [email protected] www.ieee.org/digitalsubscriptions

12-PIM-0010_Insertions_Ad_7x10_Final.indd 1 3/30/12 10:07 AM

06a.p73.NA.indd 73 5/7/14 12:42 PM So, Where Are My Robot Servants? Tomorrow’s robots will become true helpers and companions in people’s homes By Erico Guizzo

Four years ago, researchers at the University of California, Berkeley, uploaded a video to YouTube. It featured a demonstration they’d done using a powerful new robot called PR2, a dishwasher-size machine with two hefty arms and six camera eyes on its face. In the demo, PR2 stands before a disorderly pile of small towels. Then, slowly but surely, it stretches its arms, picks up a towel, and neatly folds it, even patting it gently to smooth out the wrinkles. The robot repeats the routine until no more towels are left in the heap. • The researchers were pleased with their work, but they didn’t quite expect what came next: Their video went viral. Within days, hundreds of thousands of people watched it as news of the robot spread through social media and the blogosphere. Reports popped up on newscasts and publications around the

74 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG illustration by Ben Wiseman

06.Future.Robots.NA.indd 74 5/9/14 4:07 PM 06.Future.Robots.NA.indd 75 5/9/14 4:07 PM world. One Twitter user humorously cessors, sensors, and other components still be just laboratory playthings. Others summed up what the achievement might that robots need have gotten much bet- believe that in that same time frame intel- portend: “I, for one, welcome our towel- ter and cheaper, propelled by advances ligent machines will routinely be provid- folding robot overlords.” in smartphone technology. And opening household help, advice, and company. This robotic laundry experiment had ob- source software is now available for robot Then, of course, there are the countless viously struck a nerve. The idea of robots simulation, control, vision, and many possibilities in between. doing chores around the house has long other functions. Also, rapid-prototyping We editors at IEEE Spectrum don’t precaptured people’s imaginations. For some, tools like 3-D printers and laser cutters tend to know how things will unfold, robots would mean freedom from tasks are lowering the barriers for designing but of all the scenarios we’re able to they don’t have time for or don’t want to and building new robots. envision, there’s one in particular we do. For others, robots would mean even The result is that interest in robotics find not only possible but desirable. It’s more: They would help them live inde- is exploding among researchers, hobby- one in which personal robots won’t be pendently longer, providing care and per- ists, and entrepreneurs. Robot-related exclusive, expensive offerings few can haps even some degree of companionship. start-ups and crowdfunded projects are afford. Rather, they’ll be as common- It’s disappointing, then, that other than proliferating. Venture capitalists have place as computers or mobile phones robotic toys and vacuum cleaners, robots taken notice of this trend—and so have are today, and their development will are a rare sight in our homes today. And tech giants like Amazon.com and Google, provide a global engine for innovation yet, here we are, still eagerly waiting for both of which seem to have big plans and prosperity. this technology to blossom. So, where for robots. are the robot servants? Now, where this is all leading is hard to ROBOT EVOLUTION: PR2 [left] sold for Some recent developments suggest tell. Some skeptics predict that in 20 or US $400 000; one of its successors, UBR-1, is a that they might not be too far away. Pro- 30 years, personal domestic robots will bit less capable but costs about one-tenth as much. obotics R

nded u : Unbo : ht g i R ; ; e g Gara w o ll Left: Wi Left:

76 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG

06.Future.Robots.NA.indd 76 5/9/14 4:07 PM So allow us to expand on our upbeat to a robot species—to an vision. intelligent robot that can make evolved copies of itself.” The domestic robots of tomorrow will The result of self-replicating be a varied bunch. Many will be small, robots, Joy wrote, could mean single-task machines that’ll clean floors, machines competing for resources with us, or worse, our water plants, feed pets, and such. They’ll extermination. He described hide most of the time, and we won’t pay similarly gloomy scenarios in- much attention to them. Think of them as volving genetically engineered pathogens and self-cloning smart, mobile versions of today’s house- nanostructures wreck- hold appliances. ing everything in their paths, The robots that will really change things creations destroying their creators—us. will be bigger and more powerful, and Faced with what he saw they will perform multiple tasks for us. as a real threat to our exis- They’ll have wheels or tracks, and some tence, and disappointed that technologists weren’t taking may sport legs. They’ll certainly have responsibility for their poten- manipulator arms to handle objects. As tially humanity-annihilating with any piece of technology, you’ll be inventions, Joy saw no alter- What Could Possibly Go Wrong? native: He argued that we able to choose among many models with should relinquish the devel- different styles, capabilities, and prices. opment of certain technolo- But the key thing they’ll have in common gies and limit our pursuit of some kinds of knowledge. is how they learn to do what they do. No Joy Joy is a respected techno These robots won’t do everything right guru—he helped create one out of the box. Instead, these general- flavor of Unix, Java, and Sun workstations and servers— purpose programmable platforms will in Robots so people paid attention. start by doing just a few simple tasks, and When Bill Joy saw the His essay sparked a heated they’ll continually acquire new capabili- debate. Some thanked Joy robopocalypse for pointing out the dangers ties. They’ll come equipped with attach- of these accelerating ment points for new accessories and, more technologies. Others called important, standard interfaces that allow him a neo-Luddite and When it comes to evil Bill Joy, cofounder of Sun criticized him for quoting the new third-party software to add functions robots, Hollywood has come Microsystems. In 2000, Joy writings of Ted Kaczynski, to the robots’ repertoire that their manu- up with nearly every scary wrote the Wired cover story the Unabomber, and for not facturers never imagined, much like the scenario imaginable. Robots “Why the Future Doesn’t suggesting more concrete revolting against humanity, Need Us,” arguing that three solutions. Another influential apps we install on our phones. android killers on the loose, fast-changing technologies— tech visionary, Ray Kurzweil, It’s a scenario that, in one form or an- machines harvesting energy robotics, genetic engineering, whose own predictions were other, some roboticists already have from humans—these are and nanotechnology—were among the things that led Joy some of the themes that “threatening to make humans to write his essay, rejected his in sight. “While a computer program have appeared in movies like an endangered species.” call for curbing broad areas is pure software, some robot apps will Terminator; Blade Runner; In the essay, he explained of technology and suggested be a combination of software and hard- Metropolis; The Matrix; I, Robot; that these technologies pose we adopt ethical guidelines Minority Report; 2001: A Space a real threat because they and more oversight. ware,” says Colin Angle, chief executive Odyssey; Westworld; and could run amok and unleash It’s now 14 years later. If and cofo under of iRobot Corp., an indus- RoboCop. Steven Spielberg an uncontrolled process of we look at the dangers Joy try leader based in Bedford, Mass. “These even has a movie called self-replication. For robotics, warned about in his essay, Robopocalypse in the works. in particular, he worried about we don’t think the latest apps will include not only software but Although many of these the possibility of intelligent technological advances maybe also files that people can use in scenarios are frightening machines evolving into a have brought us any closer to their 3-D printers to make parts at home.” and gruesome, what is “superior robot species”: the doomsday scenarios he perhaps one of the darkest “How soon could such an feared. Unless our Roombas What will the apps and accessories and most disturbing views intelligent robot be built? are about to stage an allow this new generation of home of tomorrow’s robots didn’t The coming advances in uprising, we don’t think we’ll robots to do? Anything and everything, come from a movie script: computing power seem to be seeing a self-reproducing It came from an essay written make it possible by 2030. superior robot species we hope. Some possibilities that imme- by influential computer And once an intelligent robot anytime soon—except in the diately come to mind: Robots will learn architect and Internet pioneer exists, it is only a small step movies. —E.G.

illustration by MCKIBILLO SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | north american | jun 2014 | 77

06.Future.Robots.NA.indd 77 5/9/14 4:07 PM to fetch things from the fridge, operate today in the mobile world, with Apple’s it crashed into something or someone. the microwave, clear the table after meals, iOS and Google’s Android running apps Another problem is that it does things load and unload the dishwasher, answer from all over. slowly. In the Berkeley towel-folding the door, pick up toys from the floor, clean So expect standard platforms to take demo, PR2 took 25 minutes to fold each toilets, and of course, do laundry. A free hold in robotics, too. New apps and acces- towel (the researchers had to speed up app will let your robot find all the socks sories for them will then gush from a vast their video dramatically to make it watch- in the bin; a paid version will find, pair, number of companies and individu als— able). And then there’s the price tag: and place them in your drawer. The app be it a kid in a garage in Silicon Valley, Each PR2 costs a whopping US $400 000. may require that you 3-D print a new a group of programmers in Finland, or But again, look at what happened in the accessory—a sock-friendly gripper, say— skilled engineers in India or Brazil. And computer industry: While mainframes or get it sent to your home. (Yes, people as personal robots are opened up to the sold for hundreds of thousands of dol- still receive packages in the future, per- world, they’ll become the next transfor- lars in the 1960s and ’70s, the first IBM haps delivered by Amazon drones.) mative technology after the PC, the Inter- PC, introduced in 1981, cost about $4000 For this to come about, companies mak- net, and the smartphone. in today’s dollars. So if we peer into the ing domestic robots will have to give up future, we can easily imagine a smaller, control in the name of openness. How smarter, and cheaper successor to PR2 soon that will happen is unclear, though. Our desired scenario will come becoming a universal robotic platform A big impediment, argues Ryan Calo, a to pass only if technologists solve some that costs about as much as a typical car, professor of law at the University of Wash- key challenges. To appreciate what perhaps less. What would it take to build ington, is the possible legal liability such they’re facing, it might help to understand such a machine? openness would engender. People have what a state-of-the-art, general-purpose Thanks to Moore’s Law, the computers come to expect their personal computers robotic platform looks like today. For that, and sensors used in robots are advancing to sometimes act a bit buggy with third- consider our towel-folding robot, PR2. at a formidable pace. High-resolution cam- party software, and as a consequence law- Built by a team of robot wizards at a eras, inertial measurement units, laser suits are rare. But if personal robots ever company called Willow Garage, in Menlo range finders, and 3-D depth sensors went haywire, it’s likely that their owners Park, Calif., PR2 is a mechanical marvel, like Microsoft’s Kinect have profoundly would sue the manufacturer for damages. possibly the most capable research ro- changed robotics in the past half decade. Calo thinks that some tweaks to the law bot ever built. Willow engineers have One hardware component, however, has could balance the dan- programmed the robot been holding robots back: their actuators. ger of making robotic to grab drinks from a These are essentially electric motors con- platforms open against fridge, play pool, and nected to gears or other mechanisms. In a the great promise of this plug itself in for recharg- robot like PR2, they power its wheels and approach. One reason ing. Other research arms. The problem is that the actuators in to want to see things groups have taught it to robots today tend to be bulky and costly, evolve this way is that bake cookies, prepare and as a result those robots are big and ex- time capsule: 1964 creating a capable do- a traditional Bavarian pensive. (PR2’s arms alone accounted for mestic robot will prob- Sharp breakfast, and even ven- about half of the robot’s hardware costs.) ably be too hard for a Compet ture out of the lab to go Researchers are experimenting with single company to fig- buy sandwiches. alternatives, including bioinspired artifi- ure out by itself. The CS-10A As impressive as these cial muscles, cable-driven manipulators, robot makers that will demonstrations are, and even soft, inflatable arms. Another After four years of prevail will be the ones development, Sharp Corp. PR2 also underscores possibility is building actuators that re- that allow others to ex- introduced the Compet the current limitations place most metal parts with carbon fiber, pand and enhance their CS-10A desktop calculator of robotics. The robot plastics, and other lightweight materials. in 1964. It was the first creations. The same transistorized calculator is awkwardly big. It “For me a big unknown is the ways in was true for personal- produced by a Japanese can’t maneuver in tight which new materials will change what we computer manufactur- manufacturer. It cost spaces, and, weighing can put in robots,” says Rodney Brooks, 535 000 yen, about the same ers decades ago, and as a subcompact car in Japan 220 kilograms, it could the celebrated roboticist and founder of this paradigm reigns at the time. do some real damage if Rethink Robotics in Boston. He’s hope-

78 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG photo-illustration by Gluekit

06.Future.Robots.NA.indd 78 5/9/14 4:07 PM ful, though, that materials scientists will low-level details like how to acquire data would contribute to this repository on indeed have a lot to offer robotics. from a sensor or keep track of where dif- their own: If a robot learned to grasp a Reducing size and weight will be criti- ferent parts of the robot are with respect certain teacup, it would upload informa- cal in making tomorrow’s personal robots to one another: ROS does all that for you. tion describing how to do that in a way nimbler, safer, and cheaper. But some say The greatest virtue of ROS, which is free other robots would understand. That is, an even greater challenge will be soft- and open source, is that it can run not tomorrow’s robots would learn not just ware. “Like the early PCs, you need hard- only on PR2 but also on pretty much any from people but also from one another. ware of basic capabilities, but for the most other robot with a computer. Indeed, the And if we glimpse perhaps a few depart the industry did not really accelerate ROS community has grown to thousands cades ahead, we see robots becoming until you had great software,” says Tandy of developers, and ROS is now running in more than just labor savers in our homes. Trower, founder of Hoaloha Robotics, a everything from small humanoids to big As they become more common—and as we Seattle-based start-up developing robots industrial robots. ROS, now maintained by become more accepting of them—certain to assist the elderly. models will also serve as companions to The problem with the many of us. You may find this idea un- software today is that comfortable, even repulsive. But the next roboticists spend too much generations, growing up alongside robots, time reinventing the wheel, “A robot to will embrace them—or at least demand each creating different mod- that they have more “personality” than ules to handle control, com- a disk-shaped vacuum bot. munication, and other basic keep me Already filmmakers are beginning to tasks in the robots. This, in speculate about our relationship with part, is necessary because company, machines in the near future. In Robot & robots are still highly cus- Frank (2012), a grumpy retiree is in itially tomized machines, and reluctant to accept the robot servant so reusing code is difficult I think that’s his son buys him, but he soon finds its or impossible. presence indispensable. In Her (2013), a But it’s hard to see per- something lonely writer played by Joaquin Phoenix sonal robots flourishing becomes romantically attached to a talk- until large numbers of dif- ing operating system. “Like when I talk to ferent manufacturers’ ma- we will see” her,” he says, referring to the OS, “I feel chines are equipped with like she’s with me.” standardized components Ken Goldberg, a roboticist at UC Berkeley, and interfaces. This, in turn, will make the Open Source Robotics Foundation, is doesn’t believe that ever smarter machines programming them—and sharing code— bringing us closer to a world where people will replace human contact. “But people easier. And indeed, some robotics soft- don’t have to re-create basic software mod- aren’t always available,” he says. “So hav- ware is already moving in this direction. ules every time they build a new robot. ing a robot to tell me jokes, play videos and Consider again Willow Garage’s PR2. Its If all goes well, ROS or software like it pictures of my past, and keep me company, software foundation is called the Robot will allow developers to focus on high-lev el I think that’s something we’re going to see.” Operating System, or ROS, which takes applications rather than basic systems To be sure, nobody knows whether care of all the basic functionalities of the operations as they build ever more sophis- robotics will evolve exactly this way. But robot, such as making sure sensors and ticated capabilities into their robots. Those we think it should. Roboticists will have computers are talking to one another and developers will then package their crea to overcome many obstacles to get there, much more. ROS is also integrated with a tions into apps, which users will download but a future in which robots become true set of libraries that programmers can use to from robot app stores. Perhaps robots helpers and at least surrogate friends is make the robot perform tasks that involve will make these purchases themselves. awfully appealing. Of course, they’ll fold simulation, 3-D data processing, computer Or maybe newly created functionalities our towels too. n vision, and other things. That means they will be stored in a cloud-based knowledge

can develop complex applications—such as repository, which robots would access to post your comments at http:// folding towels—without worrying about learn new skills. At the same time, robots spectrum.ieee.org/robots0614

SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | north american | jun 2014 | 79

06.Future.Robots.NA.indd 79 5/9/14 4:07 PM Someone to Watch Over Me Every technology has unintended consequences By Nancy Kress

“I still hate this,” Trevor said. “That you’re doing this to Becky.” • “So you’ve told me,” I said wearily. “Many times.” • We sat in the clinic waiting room, done in Martian rust reds, very trendy for such an illegal operation. But, then, this was very upscale illegality. Trevor, who had so much money he never thought about it, hadn’t asked how I was paying for Becky’s surgery, and I hadn’t volunteered that I’d cashed in my retirement fund at Payne, Jeffers. We’d beenwaiting on the rust-red conformachairs, which were not as comfortable as advertised, for nearly an hour. • Trevor scowled at me. “Amanda, as a tactic this lacks—” • “Sweetness,” I said. “I know. I’m not a sweet person, Trevor. This is a surprise? You’ve known this about me since we were nine. We didn’t become friends because you value sweetness.” • “I didn’t—”

80 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG illustration by Martin Ansin

06.Future.Fiction.NA.indd 80 5/14/14 4:34 PM 06.Future.Fiction.NA.indd 81 5/14/14 4:34 PM But I was, all at once, beyond restraint. no pain, no cloudiness in I turned on him. “And Jake didn’t marry her iris. me for sweetness, either. Who wants You couldn’t tell that any- to go to bed with a lump of marzipan— thing had been done to her he used to say that to me! And he didn’t at all. leave me for lack of sweetness, either, or he wouldn’t have chosen…what does she have that I don’t?” Using the software My voice had risen to a shout. The three was as uncomplicated as other people in the waiting room, two of the implant itself. What was whom were holo-masked, stared. I twisted hard was setting it up. The my hands together and spoke more softly. manufacturer doesn’t do “He’s just erased me from his life. That’s that for you, understand- what I really can’t stand—that he acts like ing more than anyone the I never existed at all.” absolute necessity of cus- Trevor put his arms around me. I col- tomized, unhackable en- lapsed against his thin chest and narrow cryption on dedicated and shoulders—delicate frames were hot just “I ran the shielded computers. Most now with gays—and sobbed quietly. The wearers of Opti-Cam im- man sitting two chairs away moved to camera plants are not six-month-old four chairs away. infants. Last month alone, After I finally blew my nose, I said, six major mobsters were in- “Trevvy, I have to know. Jake was the love images dicted and an Asian dictator of my life.” assassinated using informa- “Jake is a cheating and lying bastard, and of Jake as tion from Opti-Cams. anyway, I’m the love of your life.” Trevor set up my system. “Not carnally.” It was pretty minimal: re- “Overrated.” Becky saw ceiver, screen, retransmit- “You don’t believe that.” ter, basic encryption. He “Well, no.” He held me at arm’s length. him until protested the retransmit- “You look like a dead spot in the ocean. ter. “This data isn’t some- Go put on some makeup. Obsession is thing you should view not a good look for you. Anyway, Becky I found a on anything but this one should be the love of your life.” screen here in your bed- His expression stopped my remaining good one” room, off-line for all the sniffles. Trevor always smiles and he is Internets. Don’t retransmit never, ever critical of me. Not seriously. to your wrister or, quod di I said, “She is.” I charged through the door. Becky lay prohibeant, to any screen anywhere at He didn’t bother to correct the lie. But in a smartcrib, watching a holo-mobile your job. Do I have to remind you that he looked away from me, and something two feet above her. Bright, nonexistent this whole setup is illegal?” in my neck went cold. I’d lost my soon- shapes twisted and flowed in the air. “Just get it working. And drop the Latin— to-be-ex husband. If I lost Trevor, too…. Becky’s plump little hands reached for it’s pretentious.” “I’m here, Amanda. Always. And no, them until she saw me. She crowed with “You never did have any sense of verbal I don’t need sweetness from you. I just delight, and I picked her up and cuddled fashion, Mandy. No, don’t touch that… need—” her, studying her right eye. wait a minute…there.” My wristband brightened and said, It was clear, stained-glass green with The screen brightened to an expanse “Ms. Rydder, the surgery went fine, and thick, dark lashes. Just like Jake’s eyes. of white. I was about to protest that the you can see Rebecca now. First door to No scars on the smooth baby skin. system didn’t work when I realized: Becky your left.” No grogginess from the anesthesia, was staring at the ceiling.

82 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG

06.Future.Fiction.NA.indd 82 5/14/14 4:34 PM She lay in her crib across the room, serves a dangerous, illegal, utterly stu- however, she sat down in front of Becky drowsy and blinking. The white expanse pid hobby. and fed the baby strained applesauce. disappeared, reappeared, disappeared In my bedroom I turned on the dedicat- Instantly, I wanted to leap through the again. I said, too shrilly, “Mobile on,” and ed computer. Becky gazed at the back of a lens and shove her away from my baby. her smartcrib activated it. Becky’s eyes head in a moving car. One head, not two. Leave her alone, you bitch, she’s mine! opened wide and she cooed. My screen Jake, alone, had picked her up at day care. Pam was pretty but not gorgeous, a girl- showed somersaulting kittens made of Then his apartment, not Pam’s. I had next-door type if the door happened to light, seen from Becky’s perspective as never been inside either one, but I rec- open on a Hamptons beach house. Sun- the camera behind her cornea sent its ognized his half of what had once been streaked hair, fine sun lines around brown images to the receiver. our furniture. He put Becky on the floor eyes, no makeup, vintage Lululemon “Mobile off.” The kittens disappeared. I to crawl, and whenever she glanced over workout clothes. On the street I’d never crossed the room and loomed over Becky, at him, I glimpsed the slippers I’d given have noticed her. Her body looked nicely looking back over my shoulder. On-screen him for his last birthday. curved but neither buxom nor model- was her view of me, head turned away. In college, I’d been a film major. No elegant. What did she have that I didn’t? Trevor said, “I still don’t think you’ve Fellini retrospective, no Welles film work, Becky spat applesauce at her and the thought this through. And I still hate it. had ever enthralled me like the images on view vibrated—she must have been gig- Becky—” my screen that Friday evening. Jake’s slip- gling. Pam giggled back. “Won’t know a thing. She doesn’t feel pers, Becky’s toys, a rubber ducky floating Stop. Leave her alone! She’s mine! the implant, and the images don’t get in the bathtub. Quick shots of Jake’s face, He’s mine. stored in her brain, at least not any more laughing or talking to her—why didn’t the than they would from her own vision. implant have audio! Pam did not appear. Nothing connects to her memory. There When Becky finally fell asleep, I turned By Sunday afternoon, when Jake are dozens of studies proving that.” off the computer and then sat for a long brought Becky back, I had slept a total of “With adult subjects. Not infants.” time in the dark, tears running down my three hours. All weekend I’d sat by the “Infants remember even less than we face, rage in my heart. screen, seldom eating, scarcely going to do.” He had no right to do this to me. To the bathroom. Becky might wake in the “I wish you remembered less,” Trevor Becky. To live his life as if I’d never occu- night; there might be something to see. said. “Remembered less, felt less, pied the center of it. It was, as I’d discovered online, a one- schemed less—” At midnight I gave in and keyed his num- bedroom apartment. Did Jake wheel her I’d stopped listening to him. I watched ber into my cell. He answered sleepily. crib out into the living room so he and Pam Becky watch me until her lids fell into “Hello?” could have sex in the bedroom? Or did sleep and the screen went blank. Not breathing, I clutched the phone. they do it with Becky asleep beside them? This was Wednesday. On Friday Jake More sharply: “Hello?” And then, By order of the court, ever since that would pick up Becky for his weekend of “Amanda, if this is you, you’re violating stupid misunderstanding two months ago, shared custody. the restraining order. Please stop. I mean Jake and I had no contact when Becky it this time. I’ll go back to court if I have to.” was returned on Sunday. Jake brought his I said nothing. Tears and rage, tears and sister with him every single week. Linda “What’s with you?” Felicity said rage. Long after he hung up, I clutched brought Becky into my building, and the to me in the ladies’ room nearest our the phone as if I could crush it. two of us did not exchange a word. cubicles. “You’re jumpy as a cat.” I unwrapped Becky and studied every “Cats aren’t particularly jumpy. Nei- inch of her, looking for—what? Anything ther am I. Just stressed about the GloBiz On Saturday, Pam appeared in amiss, a bruise or a dirty diaper or ripped account.” Becky’s field of vision. pj’s. There was nothing, of course. Jake Felicity frowned, but before she could At first I got only flashes of her; Becky had always been a terrific father. point out that GloBiz was consistently was not interested in focusing on this un- The baby was asleep by seven o’clock. I thrilled with our campaign for them, known person. It was eerie to glimpse a called Trevor to come over; my call went I was out of the ladies’ room, out of the red-shirted elbow, the toe of a black boot, straight to voice mail. Felicity had a date. building, in a cab home. Only 4:00 p.m., the back of a blond head. It disassembled TV was boring. I roamed the house, un- but so what? Even a copywriter de- her, made her less than real. Eventually, able to sit for even a moment.

SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | north american | jun 2014 | 83

06.Future.Fiction.NA.indd 83 5/14/14 4:34 PM Until I stopped cold, feeling my own I once saw a show about mouth open into an O. After checking on toxoplasmosis, a parasitic Becky one last time, I brought the small, disease. When mice con- dedicated computer into the living room tract it, they lose their nat- and connected it to my wall system. ural fear of cats, making it easier for cats to eat them and the parasite to get into Trevor had made his fortune the cat. There was some evi- with Holo-Shop. He invented it, patented dence from brain scans that it, and sold it for an exorbitant sum plus the mice realized this lack royalties to Microsoft. of fear was stupid, but they There had been other holographic con- couldn’t help themselves. version programs on the market, but they They were compelled to let were quirky, experimental, difficult to use. the cats see them. Holo-Shop was none of those, and the re- At work I accomplished sults were sharper than anything before it. nothing. I’d set the retrans- You brought up a flat image on a screen, set mitter to send the images the parameters you wanted, and touched “ I am not of Jake and Pam to my wris- the H-S icon. The image sprang from the ter; the hell with what Tr evor screen in holographic three dimensions. sane, I said. Whenever I could, I It could be small or large, although the ducked into the ladies’ room larger you made it, and the farther away and brought up images to the hologram from the screen, the lower thought, study. Felicity went from the resolution. A three-inch rose was a warmly supportive (“You miracle of dense perfection; a room-sized which don’t feel well? Oh, I can puppy was insubstantial vapor. finish that copy, Amanda”) Holo-Shop could not evoke moving to faintly resentful (“You images, not yet, although Microsoft was was my haven’t even started on the reportedly working on it. Meanwhile, McMahon account stuff? But advertisers and artists and retail outlets last sane we got it over a week ago”). manipulated holograms to sometimes On Thursday night, Trevor powerful effect, sometimes laughable called. I told him I had the kitsch. Ditto the millions of users who thought” flu. On Friday night, he let wanted the pyramids to decorate their himself into my apartment trendy Egyptian-themed living room but with his emergency key. I to disappear when they needed to set up barely had time to dart out a card table for poker. The second weekend that Jake of the bedroom and close the door. I ran the camera images of Jake as Becky had Becky, Pam was there all weekend. I “Trevor! I told you I’m sick!” saw him until I found a good one: Jake watched them every minute that Becky “It’s not flu season, Mandy.” His hand- crouching on the floor, smiling, green was awake. They kissed in the kitchen, some face looked strange without its habit eyes alight, arms extended for the baby took Becky to the park, watched something ual smile. to crawl into them. I froze the image, pro- on TV while she crawled around the floor. “If I say I have the flu, then I have the flu!” jected it with H-S, and fooled with it for a Pam wore Carson Davies boots in calfskin, “I don’t think you do. You’re doing it while. When it was done, Jake sat life-size $800. When Trevor called with tickets to again, aren’t you? Two restraining orders on my bedroom floor, ghostly enough to the hottest play in town, I told him I had and a court fine weren’t enough?” see the dresser behind him, arms out- the flu. By Sunday afternoon, when Linda “I’m not. I’m not stalking Jake.” stretched. The dresser didn’t matter. I got handed Becky back to me, I was groggy “Swear on pussy willows’ pussies?” Our down on the floor and moved to sit in the from sleeplessness, reeking from not bath- childhood oath; at ten years old it had circle of his arms. ing. I didn’t look at Linda looking at me. seemed hilarious.

84 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG

06.Future.Fiction.NA.indd 84 5/14/14 4:34 PM it takes it takes two to two to tango tango “Swear on pussy willows’ pussies.” “Go away!” I barely glanced at him— Two Component “Then you’re obsessing over the Opti- it was 9:57! Epoxy Systems Cam images.” “Mandy, darling, whatever you’re go- “Isn’t that my business?” ing to do…don’t.” Trevor lost his temper, something even 9:58. rarer than losing his smile. “Oh, Christ, “Let me help you. You know we’ve al- Mandy, you’re my business! Don’t you ways helped each other.” know that if I were straight, you and I “Don’t touch me!” would have married and had three Beckys “I won’t. You know I won’t if you don’t of our own? Don’t you know how much want me to. I’m just going to pick up Becky, better I’d have been for you than Jake? I okay? Here we go, sweetheart, come to can handle your intensity, he couldn’t. Uncle Trevor….” And I know when you’re lying to me.” 9:59. “Please go, Trevor. I’m not up to this Jake’s law office was superefficient. The right now, really I’m not—” partners would be gathering in his spa- He left, slamming the door behind him. cious office for the regular Thursday morn- Once, nothing in the world would have ing meeting. His wall screen would be on, kept me from following him. Trevor, my ready to bring up the week’s data. He didn’t best friend, my support and confidant…. know I had his office password; I’d stolen On the screen in the bedroom, Becky lay it right after he told me he was leaving me, in her infant seat, studying her bare toes. but despite everything that had led to the She must have just woken up. On the rug, restraining order I’d never used it. Until now. barely within the circle of her unknowing Trevor said, “Mandy, what are you do- vision, Jake and Pam made love. ing? Put down your cell if you’re calling Frantically I keyed in his cell number. the cops. I’m not here to force you to do Anything to disrupt them, anything! The anything you don’t want to do, I promise. call went to voice mail. “Stop!” I screamed. Put down the cell.” “Stop, stop, stop!” The cell must have been 10:00. on silent; they didn’t stop. I pushed both buttons simu ltaneously, Special formulations offer: I am not sane, I thought, which was my my cell and the “Send” button on the • High strength bonds last sane thought. computer. The phone number bypassed • Long-term durability Jake’s office answering system—a direct • Easy application line for privileged clients who needed • Convenient packaging I called in sick to work on Mon- to reach their lawyer instantly for some day, Tuesday, Wednesday. I never left my legal emergency. Jake would not recog- bedroom. It began to smell: of Becky’s nize the number of my new, throwaway diapers, piled in the corner whenever I cell. His voice said, “Hello?” changed her. Of a pizza molding on the Now it would happen. Now I would get dresser. Of me. what I had been trying for so long, what I On Thursday morning, Trevor returned. needed more than food or water or even “Mandy?” Becky: I would get a reaction from Jake. “Go away! Go away!” I’d waited all week The image of him and Pam naked on the Ask for the for 10:00 a.m. on Thursday! Trevor was rug would burst from the wall screen in MasterSil family not going to spoil this! his office in all its color-saturated, three- of silicones “Mandy…oh my God.” He stood in the dimensional luridness, and Jake would Hackensack, NJ 07601 USA door to my bedroom. Becky gurgled in know I had done it. That he could not +1.201.343.8983 • [email protected] her swing. She was dressed in her snow- erase me. suit; the window stood open to help with “Hello? Who is this?” Jake said, still calm. www.masterbond.com the stench. “Can I help you?”

06.Future.Fiction.NA.indd 85 5/14/14 4:34 PM I waited. The brightest minds discussing the biggest topics. Nothing happened. No one in the background gasped Earn PDHs by attending a Webinar! or laughed or said, “What the hell—?” Nothing. Jake tried one last “Can I help you?” and New Webinars in June then cut the connection. Trevor, patting Becky’s back, said so ftly, 5 June Groundbreaking Smart Polygeneration Microgrid Project: “Mandy….” University Campus of Savona, Italy I cried, “Why didn’t it work?” This Webinar will discuss how the Siemens Microgrid Manager allows the prediction Trevor’s face changed. His gaze moved of consumption and production from renewable sources as well as the planning of to the computer. He knew, then; he was operational activities. http://spectrum.ieee.org/webinar/groundbreaking-smart- always smarter than anybody else I knew. polygeneration-microgrid-project-university-campus-of-savona-italy He said, “Because Jake knew you’d do something like that. He put a detailed 12 June The Use of High Performance Computing blocker on his system.” in Multiphysics Modeling “I just wanted him to acknowledge I This webinar will bring together expertise from both the hardware and software side exist!” of HPC. You will be introduced to the concept of multiphysics applications and how they can be effectively simulated in each step of the approach. http://spectrum.ieee. “Oh, he acknowledges it,” Trevor said. org/webinar/the-use-of-high-performance-computing-in-multiphysics-modeling “How do you think he knew what you’d do?” He held Becky, now squirming in her 17 June Getting it Right the First Time: 3 Ways Requirements snowsuit, away from him and stared Management Can Help Save Time and Money into her eyes, first the right and then Learn how to achieve: information transparency, improved collaboration, and the left, again the right, again the left. increased traceability. http://spectrum.ieee.org/webinar/getting-it-right-the-first- “The technology’s available to everyone. time-3-ways-requirements-management-can-help-save-time-and-money Including Jake.”

On-Demand Webinars I don’t like to lie to Trevor. Sometimes, however, you have to do certain things you might not want to do. He Accelerating Time to Market Through Reuse went with me to the clinic, but of course This webcasts discuss the ability to effectively reuse components of innovation/design he couldn’t sign any papers; he is not re- to expedite development and feature customization. http://spectrum.ieee.org/webinar/ accelerating-time-to-market-through-reuse lated to Becky. I told him I’d had both Opti- Cams removed. I swore on pussy willows. Mastering Your Technology Career: Now I stand in my bedroom, which Which Graduate Degree is Right for You? sparkles with cleanliness. Becky sits in This degree was designed by engineers to provide those with STEM-related backgrounds her swing, gurgling at me. I lean closer training in critical management topics essential for success in their technology-based to her. My hair, clean and shining, swings careers. http://spectrum.ieee.org/webinar/mastering-your-technology-career-which- toward her. My makeup has been profes- graduate-degree-is-right-for-you sionally done. My cleavage gets help from a $200 bra. I smile at my baby. Jake is watching. n Sponsors

College of Engineering post your comments at http:// spectrum.ieee.org/kress0614. This is one of six hard science fiction tales that will appear Sign up today! in Coming Soon Enough, a forthcoming e-book from IEEE Spectrum, featuring work www.spectrum.ieee.org/webinar by Greg Egan, Brenda Cooper, and others.

06.Future.Fiction.NA.indd 86 5/14/14 4:34 PM Thermodynamics: Four Laws That Move the Universe

TIME Taught by Professor Je rey C. Grossman ED O T FF I E IM R L 1. Thermodynamics—What’s under the Hood 70% 2. Variables and the Flow of Energy 3. Temperature—Thermodynamics’ First Force off 1 O 3 R 4. Salt, Soup, Energy, and Entropy D LY ER BY JU 5. The Ideal Gas Law and a Piston 6. Energy Transferred and Conserved 7. Work-Heat Equivalence 8. Entropy—The Arrow of Time 9. The Chemical Potential 10. Enthalpy, Free Energy, and Equilibrium 11. Mixing and Osmotic Pressure 12. How Materials Hold Heat 13. How Materials Respond to Heat 14. Phases of Matter—Gas, Liquid, Solid 15. Phase Diagrams—Ultimate Materials Maps 16. Properties of Phases 17. To Mix, or Not to Mix? 18. Melting and Freezing of Mixtures 19. The Carnot Engine and Limits of E¯ ciency 20. More Engines—Materials at Work 21. The Electrochemical Potential 22. Chemical Reactions—Getting to Equilibrium 23. The Chemical Reaction Quotient 24. The Greatest Processes in the World

Explore the Mind-Blowing Thermodynamics: Four Laws That Move the Universe Science of Heat Course no. 1291 | 24 lectures (30 minutes/lecture) Thermodynamics is the branch of science that deals with the movement of heat. Nothing seems simpler, but nothing is more subtle and wide-ranging in its effects. And nothing has had a more profound SAVE $175 impact on the development of modern civilization. Thermodynamics: Four Laws That Move the Universe gives you an in-depth tour of this vital and fascinating science in 24 enthralling DVD $254.95 NOW $79.95 lectures that are suitable for everyone, from science novices to experts +$10 Shipping, Processing, and Lifetime Satisfaction Guarantee who wish to revisit favorite concepts and formulas. Your teacher Priority Code: 95983 is Professor Jeffrey C. Grossman of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dr. Grossman, a scientist at the forefront of research on For 24 years, The Great Courses has brought the new materials, brings exciting experiments right into your living room. world’s foremost educators to millions who want to go deeper into the subjects that matter most. No O er expires 07/31/14 exams. No homework. Just a world of knowledge available anytime, anywhere. Download or stream to your laptop or PC, or use our free mobile 1-800-832-2412 apps for iPad, iPhone, or Android. Nearly 500 ³³³. . /8´ courses available at www.thegreatcourses.com.

06a.p87.NA.indd 87 5/8/14 4:17 PM continued from page 39 | mining outfits—but for water. The firm properly cooling and hardening, causing wild deformations. expects to extract it from some kinds of asteroids simply by using The first 3-D printer to go into space won’t suffer such problems. heat from concentrated sunlight, says Chris Lewicki, the company’s Built by Made in Space, a start-up based in Moffett Field, Calif., and president and chief engineer. “Our focus isn’t necessarily on invent- set to be delivered to the International Space Station later this year, ing new technology,” he says. “It’s on doing with a small team what it will be safely ensconced in a climate-controlled glove box. The once used to take the government.” printer makes objects out of heated polymer filament, just as many terrestrial 3-D printers do, but it has been altered to work in microgravity. The team logged hundreds of hours on parabolic flights to Gathering raw materials is only the beginning. To perfect the technology, says lead engineer Michael Snyder, but he build up infrastructure, we must also develop ways to fabricate won’t disclose what sets it apart from typical 3-D printers. “That’s and manipulate structures in space. our special sauce,” he says. The company plans to send an improved The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency has been version of the printer to the station in 2015 and rent time on it to making headlines with the Phoenix project, which would use ad- anyone who might want to print in space. vanced robotics and modular components to construct spacecraft in Both SpiderFab and Made in Space printers would require car- orbit. Among other uses, this combination could extract the antenna rying material up from Earth to be used as the raw material for from a defunct satellite and build a new one around it. construction. Printing structures using material gathered else- A company called Tethers Unlimited, based in Bothell, Wash., where is still on the horizon. Although the European Space Agency, hopes to fabricate structures from scratch, on even larger scales. NASA, and others have looked into building very crude structures— Its project, called SpiderFab, aims to use robotic arms to build mostly human habitats and landing pads—out of lunar soil, at pres- up and maneuver across 3-D–printed structures while floating ent there are no plans to try out these ideas in space. free in orbit. The goal is to create objects that are too big to be Still, many say the basic ingredients needed to build a true space folded into the top of a rocket. “What we’re trying to do is fig- infrastructure are more or less ready. Now we must find a way to ure out how to make it not ridiculous to talk about antennas combine them. Only then will our machines be able to prepare the that are hundreds or thousands of meters in diameter,” says way for our own forays to the moon, the planets, and the stars, turn- CEO Robert Hoyt. One of the biggest challenges Tethers is tack- ing us at last into a truly spacefaring species. n ling now is how best to manage the thermal environment, Hoyt

says. The temperature can vary by hundreds of degrees in orbit, post your comments at http://spectrum.ieee.org/ and large temperature gradients could prevent structures from space0614

A Worl d of Id e a s

Modeling/Simulation couleurs noir 100

gris 50

for Power Conversion orange 75

Bounce10.1.6.F.indd 1 10/5/12 12:54:04 PM

06.Future.Cars.Space.NA.indd 88 5/14/14 1:33 PM 06a.p89.NA.indd 89 5/12/14 1:31 PM continued from page 63 | accidents will be rare enough to be as Brave talk, but Mercedes owners must quail at the thought of shocking as they should be. a commodified sharemobile. Who would pay a higher fare for a robotaxi lined in burled walnut, with leather seats and a perfume dispenser—features actually offered in the 2014 Mercedes S-Class? Asimov wrote not of robocars but of their There’s one bunch who won’t be able to pay for such fripper- consequences. He thus followed the sci-fi rule of his colleague, ies: professional drivers. Say good-bye to all of them—5 million Frederik Pohl, “to predict not the automobile but the traffic jam.” people in the United States alone. In a world of autonomous In that spirit, let’s assume that fully autonomous vehicles mature cargo carriage, machines could hitch trucks to standardized without worrying too much about the technology needed. What containers of stuff. Then, at distribution points, other machines would happen? Briefly, our roads, our towns, and the frames of could transfer their contents to smaller trucks—or perhaps to our lives will change, as they did when cars were first introduced. robots so small they could safely roll along sidewalks. Picture a “Approximately every two generations, we rebuild the transpor- little triwheeler that would fail only by stopping, not by falling tation infrastructure in our cities in ways that shape the vitality of on your head, as one of Amazon.com’s proposed quadcopter neighborhoods; the settlement patterns in our cities and country delivery drones might do. side; and our economy, society, and culture,” writes Marlon G. “Could we enter into a world where things are brought to us Boarnet, a specialist in transportation and urban growth at the in a Segway-size pod?” wonders Burns of Columbia. “And if so, University of Southern California. what does that do to retail big-box stores?” Robocars would be shared, and that would make them both Say bye-bye as well to the soccer mom. Parents will call a convenient and cheap to use. Vehicles would be fewer in num- robocab, set its parental controls, lock the car doors, and send ber but far more heavily used, picking up new passengers near their teenage daughters to practice or maybe to the library, mak- where they left the last ones off. Such vehicle-sharing schemes ing it impossible for them to cruise “through the hamburger stand are spreading, even though today’s dumb vehicles tend not to now,” as the Beach Boys sang in 1964. be there for you when you need them. One reason is that they The self-driving car will free us of much drudgery, true, but fu- accumulate at popular destinations. It’d be different for a car that ture generations may never know the freedom of the open road. could come when you called and leave when you were done with it. And though the work such a car will do will be of great value, it “Certainly, car sharing is an option,” says Ralf Herrtwich, a lead- probably won’t inspire many songs. n er in Mercedes’s autonomous car project, in Stuttgart. “Get the

vehicle at your command, drop it at your convenience, no parking.” post your comments at http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars0614

Welcome to Planet e.

26th International Trade Fair for Electronic Components, Systems and Applications Messe München, November 11–14, 2014 www.electronica.de years 2014 Contact U.S. Office: Francesca Novak Phone: 646.437.1016 | [email protected]

80811-electronica14-Anzeige-BES_178x121-E.indd 1 08.05.14 09:16 90 | jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG

06.Future.Cars.Space.NA.indd 90 5/14/14 1:33 PM Looking for the latest smart car technology?

Park Right Here for IEEE Spectrum’s new Cars That Think blog and newsletter.

Learn the latest developments on sensors, automation, software and more through in-depth articles, industry news, blogs, videos and contests from our team of experts on the new IEEE Spectrum Transportation Channel.

Find out what’s making cars smarter safer, more resilient, and fun. Subscribe to the biweekly Cars That Think newsletter today.

http://spectrum.ieee.org/newsletters

06a.p91.NA.indd 91 5/12/14 1:13 PM Spotlight on Clean Technology

“In Denmark you can find great engineering jobs and develop yourself professionally. Especially in the wind sector you can learn from the best people in the industry and advance your career in a stable job market.” Mireia Marrè, Advanced Engineer from Spain. Working in the wind industry in Denmark since 2010.

Are you looking to further your cleantech career DENMARK in an innovative environment with excellent work/life balance? Think Denmark! IS HIRING Visit cleantech.talentattractiondenmark.com

14153_TA_Ann_178x121mm_r7.indd 1 08/05/14 12.55 Technology insight on demand on IEEE.tv Internet television gets a mobile makeover

A mobile version of IEEE.tv is now available, plus a new app can also be found in your app store. Bring an entire network of technology insight with you:

• Generations of industry leaders. • The newest innovations. • Trends shaping our future.

Access award-winning programs about the what, who, and how of technology today.

Go mobile or get the app. www.ieee.tv

12-MEMB-0345a IEEEtv 7x4.75 Final.indd 1 8/23/12 1:25 PM 92 | Jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG

06a.p92.NA.indd 92 5/12/14 2:04 PM CAREERS AT THE N ATIONAL S ECURITY A GENCY

Rise Above the Ordinary

A career at NSA is no ordinary job. It’s a profession dedicated to identifying and defending against threats to our nation. It’s a dynamic career filled with challenging and highly rewarding work that you can’t do anywhere else but NSA.

You, too, can rise above the ordinary. Whether it’s producing valuable foreign intelligence or preventing foreign adversaries from accessing sensitive or classified national security information, you can help protect the nation by putting your intelligence to work.

NSA offers a variety of career fields, paid internships, co-op and scholarship opportunities.

Learn more about NSA and how your career can make a difference for us all. KNOWINGMATTERS

Excellent Career Opportunities in the Following Fields:

n Computer/Electrical Engineering n Cryptanalysis n Computer Science n Signals Analysis n Cybersecurity n Business Management n Information Assurance n Finance & Accounting n Mathematics n Paid Internships, n Foreign Language Scholarships and Co-op n Intelligence Analysis >> Plus other opportunities

www.NSA.gov/Careers

Search NSA to Download

WHERE INTELLIGENCE GOES TO WORK®

U.S. citizenship is required. NSA is an Equal Opportunity Employer. All applicants for employment are considered without regard to race, color, religion, sex, national origin, age, marital status, disability, sexual orientation, or status as a parent.

06a.p93.NA.indd12CNS-01_7.875x10.5(live7x10).indd 93 1 5/9/145/8/14 1:493:58 PMPM Director Are You An Advanced Radar Research Center Electrical The University of Oklahoma seeks an exceptional, dynamic leader to serve as Director of its Advanced Radar Research Center (ARRC). Engineering The ARRC builds upon a university, government and industry alliance that leads the world in the development, testing, operational deployment, Student and support of advanced weather radar systems. Through a recent strategic initiative, the ARRC has expanded capabilities in radar and other electromagnetic technologies, with applications in Looking For An surface, airborne and space-based defense, security and intelligence. Principal capabilities of the ARRC include design/prototyping of both large and small, fixed and mobile radar systems; phased Internship? array technology; digital signal/array processing; automated algorithms; decision support tools; data assimilation; and end-user training. Multi-functional, dynamically adaptive radars are now being evaluated in the field and more than two-dozen radars are located across Oklahoma, including both operational and research systems for weather, air surveillance, and security applications. The ARRC currently consists of 16 faculty members, 16 post-doctoral scientists, 7 staff members, and over 60 graduate students, across the disciplines of engineering and meteorology. In support of our highly regarded programs in radar remote sensing and related fields, the University of Oklahoma opened its state-of-the-art Radar Innovations Laboratory (RIL) in March 2014. Located adjacent to the National Weather Center on the OU Research Campus, the RIL will be the new hub of ARRC operations. The 36,000-square-foot, $15 million RIL will provide world-class facilities to move ideas for next-generation radar, microwave electronics and related technologies from conception through research, development and full prototyping. The facility features a full suite of microwave measurement equipment and two anechoic chambers enabling far-field, near-field, and radar cross- section measurements, down to 300 MHz. The lab will serve both the research and educational missions of the University by providing a hands-on, active learning environment for OU students. The Association of University Research Parks named OU’s Research Campus the 2013 Outstanding Research Park http://vpr-norman.ou.edu/). The Research Campus hosts the National Weather Center (NWC), one of the largest facilities of its kind in the world, housing twelve University of Oklahoma, state, and federal organizations with more than 650 faculty, researchers, support staff, and students. The NWC includes NOAA’s National Weather Service Forecast Office, Storm Prediction Center, National Severe Storms Laboratory, Radar Operations Center, OU-NOAA Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, and School of Meteorology. The School of Electrical and Computer Engineering is housed nearby in the new Devon Energy Hall. Look The ARRC Director provides intellectual leadership in a multidisciplinary environment. The Director works in collaboration with private industry and federal agencies and carries out a vigorous program No of teaching, research, and service that attracts exceptional students and prepares them to become future leaders in the development and application of advanced radar technologies. The ARRC Director Further! reports to the Executive Board, consisting of the Dean of the College of Engineering, the Dean of the College of Atmospheric and Geographic Sciences, and the Vice President for Research. The successful applicant must be an internationally recognized scholar with a science or engineering doctoral degree and an outstanding record of professional achievement, commensurate with appointment to a We Have tenured position at the Associate or Full Professor level within the School of Meteorology (College Internship of Atmospheric and Geographic Sciences) or the School of Electrical and Computer Engineering (College of Engineering). Demonstrated ability of working collaboratively with private industry and Opportunities eligibility to obtain a security clearance are highly desired. for Students. To apply, please submit a letter of interest including a statement of research goals and teaching vision, current curriculum vitae, and the names of four or more people who can serve as references (with full mailing and e-mail addresses, telephone, and FAX numbers). Screening of applications will begin on 15 Sept. 2014 and will continue until the position has been filled. Visit us at: Please address all correspondence to the two Co-Chairs of the Search Committee: www.AfterCollege.com/ Dean Thomas Landers Dean Berrien Moore AT&T Chair Vice President for Weather and Climate IEEE_Internships College of Engineering College of Atmospheric and Geographic Sciences University of Oklahoma University of Oklahoma 202 W. Boyd Street CEC 107 120 David L. Boren Blvd. Norman, OK 73019 Norman, OK 73072 PH: 405-325-2621 FAX: 325-7508 PH: 405-325-3095 E-mail: [email protected] FAX: 405-325-1180 E-mail: [email protected] The University of Oklahoma is an Affirmative Action, Equal Opportunity Employer.

Women and minorities are encouraged to apply.

Protected veterans and individuals with disabilities are encouraged to apply.

94 | Jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG

06a.p94.NA.indd 94 5/9/14 1:43 PM Faculty Positions available in electrical/comPuter engineering sun yat-sen university & carnegie mellon university are partnering to establish the SYSU-CMU Joint Institute of Engineering (JIE) to innovate engineering education in China and the world. The mission of the JIE is to nurture a passionate and collaborative global community and network of students, faculty and professionals working toward pushing the field of engineering forward through education and research in China and in the world. JIE is seeking full-time faculty in all areas of electrical and computer engineering (ECE). Candidates should possess a doctoral degree in ECE or related disciplines, with a demonstrated record and potential for research, teaching and leadership. The position includes an initial year on the Pittsburgh campus of Carnegie Mellon University to establish educational and research collaborations before locating to Guangzhou, China. This is a worldwide search open to qualified candidates of all nationalities, with an internationally competitive compensation package for all qualified candidates. PlEasE vIsIT: jie.cmu.edu for details

research staFF Positions available in electrical/comPuter engineering sysu-cmu shunde international Joint research institute (Jri) is located in shunde, Guangdong. supported by the provincial government and industry, the JRI aims to bring in and form high-level teams of innovation, research and development, transfer research outcomes into products, develop advanced technology, promote industrial development and facilitate China’s transition from labor intensive industries to technology intensive and creative industries. The JRI is seeking full-time research faculty and research staff that have an interest in the industrialization of science research, which targets electrical and computer engineering or related areas. Candidates with industrial experiences are preferred. applications should include a full Cv, three to five professional references, a statement of research and teaching interests, and copies of up to five research papers. Please submit the letters of reference and all above materials to the address below. application review will continue until the position is filled. EMaIl aPPlICaTIONs OR QUEsTIONs TO: [email protected]

06a.p95.NA.indd 95 5/7/14 12:51 PM

Communications & Computing Opportunities

The Information Directorate of the Air Force Research laboratory Members of the technical staff have diverse backgrounds including electrical (AFRL) is looking for outstanding researchers to address cutting-edge & computer engineering, computer science, physics, and mathematics. computing and communications problems vital to the nation’s security. AFRL is a basic and applied research laboratory that has been supporting BS, MS, and PhD degree holders in these fields are sought. AFRL the US Air Force for more than 60 years. The AFRL Information Directorate Information Directorate staff members have been at the forefront of employs approximately 750 scientists and engineers, and is the Air Force’s information science and technology developments. Examples include basic center of expertise for R&D of command, control, communications, and applied R&D in photonic quantum computing, multi-Gbps RF and optical computers, intelligence (C4I) technologies. Work is conducted across communications, and networked communications for Unmanned Aerial a broad spectrum of technologies in areas such as information fusion, Systems in contested environments. Staff members work on multi-disciplinary communications, modeling and simulation, and high performance and in-house teams. The successful candidate will be able to demonstrate depth intelligence information systems. The laboratory is equipped with state-of- in advanced computing and communications, via self-motivation and the-art resources in a number of dedicated facilities including a High- collaborative efforts. Located in upstate New York near Syracuse, the AFRL performance Computing center which houses the DoD’s largest interactive Information Directorate offers a suburban, four-season environment, superior supercomputer, an advanced RF Technology Center, Quantum Computing grade and high schools, and several nearby collaborating universities with and Communications Labs, a Nano-Computing Lab, a Wireless Networking outstanding academic reputations. We offer stable employment, a competitive Facility, a SATCOM Facility, and two large-scale outdoor antenna test salary, excellent government employee benefits, and a world-class professional ranges. Using these resources AFRL develops new ways to provide working environment. For an overview see www.wpafb.af.mil/shared/media/ commanders with accurate, timely information. document/AFD-131008-023.pdf.

Emphasis areas for open technical staff positions include high- US citizenship required. Must be eligible for a security clearance. AFRL performance and trusted computing hardware/software, quantum computers, is an equal opportunity employer. Please respond to: Michael.Smith.35@ nano and neuromorphic computers, advanced high-bandwidth adaptive us.af.mil, and [email protected]. digital communications, data link and waveform development, networking technologies, assured-access communications, satellite communications, Approved for Public Release 9Apr2014 [88ABW-2014-1524]. Distribution Unlimited. and free-space optical communications including quantum key distribution.

Position Title: Lecturer The Masters Program in Computer Science (MPCS) at the University of Chicago invites applications for the position of Lecturer. This is a three year full- time teaching position, with possibility of renewal, and involves teaching six courses across the four academic quarters of the year (Fall, Winter, Spring, Summer). Teaching duties will involve: (1) teaching an “Immersion Programming” class for students who are entering the MS program with no prior programming experience, (2) teaching a core Programming class following the Immersion Programming class, with (3) the remaining teaching load fulfilled by teaching core and elective classes in the Lecturer’s field of expertise. Candidates with a Systems background (Computer Networks, Operating Systems, Computer Architecture, etc.) will be given preferred consideration. The successful candidate will have exceptional competence in teaching and superior academic credentials. Applicants must have a Ph.D in Computer Science or a related field at time of appointment and have experience teaching Computer Science at the undergraduate or graduate level. The selection committee may also consider candidates without a Ph.D only if they have exceptional teaching credentials and at least a masters degree in a related field. The Masters Program in Computer Science (http://csmasters.uchicago.edu/) is a terminal MS degree in Computer Science that provides a rigorous introduction to the foundations of Computer Science, while also providing in-depth and hands-on instruction in cutting-edge and industry-driven topics, including Web and Mobile Application Development, Big Data, Cloud Computing, Data Analytics, etc. The program attracts a diverse mix of students including full-time students who are typically no more than 5 years out of college, part-time students who already work in industry, and international students. The Chicago metropolitan area provides a diverse and exciting environment. The local economy is vigorous, with international stature in banking, trade, commerce, manufacturing, and transportation, while the cultural scene includes diverse cultures, vibrant theater, world-renowned symphony, opera, jazz and blues. The University is located in Hyde Park, a Chicago neighborhood on the Lake Michigan shore just a few minutes from downtown. Applicants must apply on line at the University of Chicago Academic Careers website at http://tinyurl.com/mpcs-lecturer-2014 Applicants must upload a curriculum vitae and a one page teaching statement. In addition, three reference letters will be required. Review of complete applications, including reference letters, will begin June 1, 2014, and continue until the position is filled. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, sex, national origin, age, protected veteran status or status as an individual with disability. The University of Chicago is an Affirmative Action / Equal Opportunity / Disabled / Veterans Employer.

96 | Jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG

06a.p96.NA.indd 96 5/9/14 1:45 PM The Right Candidate — Right Now!

Take the next steps to finding your ideal job.

The IEEE Job Site can help you explore the engineering career opportunities that may be right for you.

Take advantage of this unique Employers prefer IEEE Members over job candidates on CareerBuilder, Dice member benefit. and Monster.com.* Post your resume on the IEEE Job Site and start your job search now!

• Create a personal, confidential job profile • Post your skills, desired salary and job location • Receive e-mail alerts when an employer posts an opening that matches your requirements • Search job postings at your convenience

Visit the IEEE Job Site at www.ieee.org/jobs * IEEE Job Site User Survey

06a.p97.NA.indd 97 5/9/14 10:41 AM ShanghaiTech University Faculty Search

The newly launched ShanghaiTech University invites highly qualified candidates to fill multiple tenure-track/tenured faculty positions as its core team in the School of Information Science and Technology (SIST). Candidates should have exceptional academic records or demonstrate strong potential in cutting-edge research areas of information science and technology. They must be fluent in English. Overseas academic connection Think you know or background is highly desired. ShanghaiTech is built as a world-class research university for training future generations of scientists, entrepreneurs, and technological leaders. Located in Zhangjiang High-Tech Park in about the latest the cosmopolitan Shanghai, ShanghaiTech is ready to trail-blaze a new education system in China. Besides establishing and maintaining a world-class research profile, faculty candidates are also expected to contribute technology? substantially to graduate and undergraduate education within the school. Academic Disciplines: You haven’t even We seek candidates in all cutting edge areas of information science and technology. Our recruitment focus includes, but is not limited to: computer architecture and technologies, nano-scale electronics, high speed and RF circuits, intelligent and integrated signal processing systems, computational foundations, big data, scratched the data mining, visualization, computer vision, bio-computing, smart energy/power devices and systems, next- generation networking, as well as inter-disciplinary areas involving information science and technology. surface.

Compensation and Benefits: Salary and startup funds are highly competitive, commensurate with experience and academic accomplishment. We also offer a comprehensive benefit package to employees and eligible dependents, including housing benefits. All regular ShanghaiTech faculty members will be within its new tenure-track system commensurate From new uses for existing with international practice for performance evaluation and promotion. technology to cutting-edge Qualifications: - A detailed research plan and demonstrated record/potentials; innovations in a variety - Ph.D. (Electrical Engineering, Computer Engineering, Computer Science, or related field); - A minimum relevant research experience of 4 years. of disciplines—see all the

Applications: layers of technology with Submit (in English, PDF version) a cover letter, a 2-page research plan, a CV plus copies of 3 most significant publications, and names of three referees to: [email protected] by June 30th, 2014 (until positions are Proceedings of the IEEE. filled). For more information, visit http://www.shanghaitech.edu.cn.

Career Opportunity for Supervisory Interdisciplinary Position, NP-0855-IV Electronics Engineer, NP-1310-IV Research Physicist, NP-1520-IV Mathematician Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), Washington, DC $104,570-$157,100* per annum (*This position is eligible for a Supervisory Pay Differential of up to 5%) Become a leader in an elite research and development community at the Naval Research L a b o r a t o r y that pioneered and has led the development and application of radar technology for over 75 years. The NRL Radar Division is seeking candidates for the position of Head, Radar Analysis Branch. This is a leadership position requiring in-depth scientific and technical knowledge of radar systems, technologies, techniques, and applications as well as excellent skills in problem solving, communication, employee development a n d supervision, and business development. The selected candidate will be responsible f o r managing programs t h a t e n c o m p a s s a wide spectrum of research directed at advanced concepts and technology in radar and related sensors that are applicable to existing and future Navy and Department of Defense systems. Duties include planning and coordinating Branch activities, maintaining the fiscal soundness of the Branch, and stimulating new research opportunities in radar technologies as they relate to the basic and applied research efforts of the Branch. These research efforts include target signature prediction, antennas and propagation, airborne early-warning radar, inverse synthetic aperture radar (ISAR), and space-time adaptive processing. For additional information about the Radar Division, visit pages 58-59 of the NRL Fact Book at http://pipeline.nrl.navy.mil/ data/pdfs/FactBook.pdf Qualified applicants must have a demonstrated knowledge of and experience Proceedings of the IEEE. in planning, organizing, conducting and communicating major Research and Development (R&D) projects in the following areas: Radar Systems & Components, Subscribe today. Electromagnetic Theory & Modeling, Radar Image Processing, and Radar Signal Processing. www.ieee.org/proceedings Interested a p p l i c a n t s should a p p l y on-line at https://www.usajobs.gov/ from June 1, 2014 through June 30, 2014. Status applicants (current or former federal employees that have served on a competitive career-conditional/career appointment) should apply e l e c t r o n i c a l l y t o Vacancy A n n o u n c e m e n t Number NE4XXXX-04-1085189K9796884 (VIN – 1085189). Non status candidates (applicants that have no prior federal service) should apply to Vacancy Announcement Number NE4XXXX-04-1085194K9796884D (VIN – 1085194). Questions regarding this opportunity should be directed to Wendy Miller a t ( 2 1 5) 408-0332. NRL is an equal employment opportunity employer.

98 | Jun 2014 | north american | SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG 09-PCEED-0207j-Proceedings-Third-Page-Ad-Final.indd10/21/09 1 2:46:24 PM

06a.p98.NA.indd 98 5/12/14 2:34 PM 06a.p99.NA.indd 99 5/9/14 1:17 PM

06.Dataflow.NA.indd 100 2060 Her, his human fashion sense. despite the limitations of called Samantha fall inlove, and anoperating system 2025 Theodore Twombly Godzilla. change fromwelcome psychic blast;residents Neo-Tokyoa with devastates 2019 Akira the Future II,1989 continuum. entire space-time along withthe a hoverboard 1985 andbreaks arrives from 2015 Marty McFly 100 2010 DATAFLOW_

2013 |

Jun 2014 Akira, Back to 1988

n o r t h a meric

Blade Runner, 1997 noodle place. soldiers andadecent forreplicantLos Angeles 2019 2050 a

is more fun. Red Planet,2000 to face algae,killer robot. The robot bit 2056 Val Kilmer goes to Mars gestural interfaces. and precognitioneliminated thanks to 2054 2020 n

Deckard searches |

Crime isalmostcompletely SP EC T RUM . IEEE robots M Minority Report, 2002 t

Te .O 2040 2030 It ov i me R G ’s telepath c ie h -travel ’ s s P i Fu RoboCop, justify buyingacyborg to clean them up. sufficient supply of meanstreets to Detroit manages to maintain a 2028 n Soylent Green,1973 peeeeeeeoooooplllllle! is both deliciousand disco 2022 Charlton r space Moon, fuel, pathos. is mined forhelium-3 2035 Themoon e

Defying its falling population, t vers Soylent Green d u 2014 i 2009 ng i r ct i c e H

eston

timeless appeal. miss the mark.But someof the underlying themes have a like the hoverboardslikely ofII—seem Future Backto to the of specific years. Some of these visions—like thesoaringskylines their colors to the mast,predicting specific technologies in their action takes place. But other movies are willing to nail Manymovies futuristic Metropolis—have already come to pass, while others— Wall Street. Metropolis, more artdeco version of Occupy underclass to riot inasexier, 2026 violationCome, annoys locals.Thingsto Scientists are surprised when this zoning a giant gunlocated right next to abusy city. 2036

Robot Maria incites the

The firstmission tospace isfired from

—Stephen Ca —Stephen himself. Looper, 2012 by having ashoot-out with gunman to constrain costs forcesa time-traveling 2044 are vague about the yearabout arein which vague

A still-weak economy 1927 ss The Terminator, future war. ofshiny-robot the 2029 Thefinaldays infographi c by CarlDeTorres 1984 1936 5/13/14 1:42PM

photos:2036: getty t/ct/c images; t/c t/c all others: alamy You work to change

the future. Avoid future underwriting by taking advantage of the We work to protect it. Purchase FutureOption!

Your most important asset is your ability to earn an The IEEE Member Group Disability income. That’s because everything you do relies Income Insurance Plan offers you: on it — from paying everyday living expenses, the mortgage on your home, and future education for • Choice of monthly income benefit options your children to funding your retirement nest egg. up to $7,540. • Budget-friendly plans to fit your needs. But what if an accident or illness happens and • Preferred definition of disability helps protect you can’t work and earn that income? How would you as a technology professional. you support your family and plan for the future? To learn more about plan features, costs, eligibility, That’s where we work to protect you and your renewability, limitations, plan availability and income with the IEEE Member Group Disability exclusions, visit IEEEinsurance.com/Disability. Income Insurance Plan, exclusively for IEEE members in the U.S., Puerto Rico and Canada.* For peace of mind beyond calculation.

Visit IEEEinsurance.com/Disability or call 1-800-493-IEEE (4333)

*The IEEE Member Group Disability Income Insurance Plan is available only for residents of the U.S. (except VT and territories), Puerto Rico and Canada (except Quebec). This plan is underwritten by New In CA d/b/a Mercer Health & York Life Insurance Company, 51 Madison Ave., New York, NY 10010 on Policy Form GMR. This coverage Benefits Insurance Services LLC is available to residents of Canada (except Quebec) through Marsh Canada Limited. Stephen Fretwell, an employee of Marsh Canada Limited, acts as a broker with respect to residents of Canada. AR Ins. Lic. #303439 65140 (6/14) Copyright 2014 Mercer LLC. All rights reserved. CA Ins. Lic. #0G39709

06a.Cov3.NA.indd 3 65140 (6/14), IEEE Disability Ad 5/7/14 12:53 PM Trim Size: 7.875" x 10.5" Live Area: 7" x 10" Bleed: 8.125" x 10.75" Colors 4C - CMYK Stock: N/A ®

m Find it at mathworks.com/accelerate datasheet video example trial request

GENERATE HDL CODE AUTOMATICALLY from MATLAB and Simulink

HDL CODER™ automatically converts Simulink models and MATLAB algorithms directly into Verilog and VHDL code for FPGAs or ASIC designs. The code is bit-true, cycle- accurate and synthesizable.

06a.Cov4.NA.indd 4 5/7/14 12:55 PM

Client Name: The Mathworks Cosmos Communications 1 Q1 Q2 REQ #: 122211B CMYK ja Title: HDL_NEW_7.875x10.75 21157a1 12.27.11 133 5 Size: 7.875”x10.75”

This advertisement prepared by: Magnitude 9.6 345 W. 13th Street New York, NY 10014 240-362-7079 [email protected]