50Th ANNIVERSARY ISSUE 1964–2014
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50th ANNIVERSARY ISSUE 1964–2014 SPACE MINING YOUR OWN POWER PLANT FOR THE TECHNOLOGY INSIDER | 06.14 PROGRAMMABLE MATTER VIRTUAL HUMAN ACTORS SELF-DRIVING CARS WEARABLE COMPUTERS HOME ROBOTS END OF DISABILITIES BRIGHT SCENARIOS FOR EIGHT OF TODAY’S HOTTEST TECHNOLOGIES PLUS WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG? 06.Cover.Int..indd 1 5/12/14 2:18 PM " Access to the right technology is key to creating an innovative design. It's great to be an engineer." ENGINEERS START HERE. Research. Design. Prototype. From data sheets to development kits & tools to components, Newark element14 offers what you need for every stage of your Featured Product: CSD19XXX series 100V NexFET™ MOSFETs design. newark.com | 800.463.9275 (11X3114) 06a.Cov2.NA.indd 2 5/7/14 12:28 PM FEATURES_06.14 IEEE SPECTRUM 1964 / 2014 SPECIAL REPORT THE FUTURE WE deserve We don’t know precisely what the next 50 years will bring. But we have 29 an excellent idea of what will be possible, and we know what we hope will happen. So here are scenarios for eight of the most promising of today’s technologies. If they develop along the lines we describe, we’ll get the future we deserve. 30 The End of Disability Brain implants and prosthetics will compensate for physical, emotional, and intellectual infirmities. By Eliza Strickland 36 Fewer Launches, More Space Robotic mining and fabrication technology could take space exploration in a whole new direction. By Rachel Courtland 40 Infinitely Malleable Materials 54 The Rise of the 66 Beyond Words Personal Power Plant Programmable matter will allow us to conjure Wearable computers will let us sense the world physical objects that transform on demand. and express ourselves in entirely new ways. More people will opt for a “utility in a box,” with agile, By Ariel Bleicher By Philip Ball intelligent networks to link the plants together. By Jean Kumagai 46 Future Block 74 So, Where Are 60 Robot, You Can Drive My Car My Robot Servants? Pictorial If every idea in this issue comes to pass, our cities might look something like this. Self-driving cars will be safe, unobtrusive, and Programmable, multipurpose robots will invade our By QuickHoney efficient, but they’ll be easier to like than to love. homes—and domestic life will never be the same. By Philip E. Ross 48 Leaving the By Erico Guizzo Uncanny Valley Behind 64 As I See It 80 Someone to Watch Over Me Computer-created actors in movies today could Photo essay Snapshots of the morning routine Fiction A case of unintended consequences for lead to new forms of entertainment tomorrow. and babyhood, circa 2064. a biomedical implant technology. FINLAY By Tekla S. Perry By Dan Saelinger By Nancy Kress OBIN R : : T S STYLI On the Cover Illustration for IEEE Spectrum by Carl DeTorres P PRO PHOTOGRAPH BY Adam Voorhes SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | NORTH AMERICAN | JUN 2014 | 01 06.TOC.NA.indd 1 5/15/14 12:28 PM Infi nite Designs, One Platform with the only complete system design environment NI LabVIEW is the only comprehensive development environment with the LabVIEW system unprecedented hardware integration and wide-ranging compatibility you need to meet design software offers unrivaled hardware any measurement and control application challenge. And LabVIEW is at the heart of integration and helps the graphical system design approach, which uses an open platform of productive you program the way software and reconfi gurable hardware to accelerate the development of your system. you think–graphically. >> Accelerate your system design productivity at ni.com/labview-platform 800 453 6202 ©2014 National Instruments. All rights reserved. LabVIEW, National Instruments, NI, and ni.com are trademarks of National Instruments. Other product and company names listed are trademarks or trade names of their respective companies. 17208 1720806a.p2.NA.indd Infinite Designs 2 Ad_US.indd 1 5/12/145/8/14 3:421:23 PMPM DEPARTMENTS_06.14TS_01.13 082111 Online News Resources Opinion Spectrum.ieee.org Big Data Comes to the Forest Radon Revealer Spectral Lines Videos of the Future When a tree falls in the forest these Turn an old webcam into On our 50th birthday, we can’t resist Meet Chris Harrison of days, everybody knows. a radioactive-gas detector. thinking about what the world will Carnegie Mellon and see the By Eliza Strickland By Ryan H. Griffin look like in 50 years—just as Isaac future of augmented reality; Asimov did the year IEEE Spectrum get inside the mind of Google 13 Accurate Quantum Computing 24 Profile: Danny Jones, was born. But can we do any better Glass pioneer Thad Starner 16 Breaking Through the Blood- Flight-Sim King than he did? By Glenn Zorpette [above]; and choose your own Brain Barrier 26 Cybersecurity Degree Courses questions in an interactive 20 Europe’s Smartphone 100 Dataflow: The Next 50 04 Back Story video with renowned physicist Supercomputer Years, as Envisioned by 06 Contributors Freeman Dyson. NOLOGY Moviemakers 28 Technically Speaking CH E T F O ADDITIONAL ResOURces TITUTE S N I EORGIA G ; ; Y Tech Insider / Webinars The Institute PH Available at spectrum.ieee.org/webinar Available 06 June at theinstitute.ieee.org OGRA P O T smART CITIES This special issue of The Institute focuses on projects F Groundbreaking Smart Polygeneration Microgrid Project: O E that are making cities smarter, more efficient, and maybe even happier. C University Campus of Savona, Italy—5 June I IEEE is lending a hand through its Smart Cities initiative, in which members OFF The Use of High Performance Computing in Multiphysics Modeling—12 June Getting It Right the First Time: Three Ways Requirements Management Can Help work with cities such as Guadalajara, Mexico, to implement technologies Save Time and Money—17 June that can solve local problems. FEDERAL FEDERAL SS IBM RATIONAL SMARTER PRODUCTS I Q&A W TH THE CANDIDATES Frederick Mintzer and Barry Shoop, who ; SWI ; are vying for 2015 IEEE president-elect, answer members’ questions and ITY http://spectrum.ieee.org/static/ibm-rational-smarter-products S IBM RATIONAL INDUSTRY SOLUTIONS LIBRARY share their plans for the future of the organization. NIVER http://spectrum.ieee.org/static/ibm-rational-industry-solutions-library U WH ITE PAPERS EVALUATING RESEARCH Gianluca Setti, vice president of IEEE UNG Publication Services and Products, explains why IEEE has issued new G http://spectrum.ieee.org/whitepapers guidelines for assessing the true impact of research articles. ANG H /C IU L I IEEE SPECTRUM L (ISSN 0018-9235) is published monthly by The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. All rights reserved. © 2014 by The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc., 3 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10016-5997, U.S.A. Volume No. 51, issue No. 6, North American edition. The editorial content of IEEE Spectrum magazine does not represent official positions of the IEEE or its organizational units. Canadian Post International Publications Mail (Canadian Distribution) Sales Agreement No. 40013087. Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to: Circulation Department, IEEE Spectrum, Box 1051, Fort Erie, ON L2A 6C7. 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SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG | NORTH AMERICAN | JUN 2014 | 03 06.TOC.NA.indd 3 5/15/14 12:28 PM BACK STORY_ EDITOR IN CHIEF Susan Hassler, [email protected] EXECUTIVE EDITOR Glenn Zorpette, [email protected] EDITORIAL DIRECTOR, DIGITAL Harry Goldstein, [email protected] MANAGING EDITOR Elizabeth A. Bretz, [email protected] SENIOR ART DIRECTOR Mark Montgomery, [email protected] SENIOR EDITORS Stephen Cass (Resources), [email protected] Erico Guizzo (Digital), [email protected] Jean Kumagai, [email protected] Samuel K. Moore (News), [email protected] Tekla S. Perry, [email protected] Joshua J. Romero (Interactive), [email protected] Philip E. Ross, [email protected] David Schneider, [email protected] DEPUTY ART DIRECTOR Brandon Palacio, [email protected] PHOTOGRAPHY DIRECTOR Randi Klett, [email protected] AssOCIATE ART DIRECTOR Erik Vrielink, [email protected] AssOCIATE EDITORS Ariel Bleicher, [email protected] Rachel Courtland, [email protected] Celia Gorman (Multimedia), [email protected] Eliza Strickland, [email protected] AssISTANT EDITOR Willie D. Jones, [email protected] SENIOR COPY EDITOR Joseph N. Levine, [email protected] Planting a Flag COPY EDITOR Michele Kogon, [email protected] EDITORIAL ReseARCHER Alan Gardner, [email protected] EXECUTIVE PRODUCER, SPECTRUM RADIO Sharon Basco hat’s it like to plant your feet in moon dust? Earlier AssISTANT PRODUCER, SPECTRUM RADIO Francesco Ferorelli, [email protected] this year, Associate Editor Rachel Courtland got a chance ADMINISTRATIVE ASSISTANTS to find out. Ramona Foster, [email protected] Nancy T. Hantman, [email protected] Courtland traveled to Swamp Works, a laboratory INTERN Theresa Chong at NASA’s John F. Kennedy Space Center, in Florida, to CONTRIBUTING EDITORS Evan Ackerman, Mark Anderson, John Blau, Robert N.