The Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iaşi Faculty of Geography and Geology Office for Doctoral Studies

Mr/Mrs...... We bring to your notice that on September 28, 2013, at 9 a.m., in the lecture hall B8 a public defence of the doctoral thesis “IAȘI COUNTY – WORKFORCE IN POST- DECEMBRIST PERIOD. VULNERABILITIES, POLICIES AND STRATEGIES” elaborated by the PhDc. Andrei Chirilă will take place in order to confer the academic degree of PhD in Geography, specialization Human Geography.

The expert commission includes:

Chairman: Prof. Univ. Dr. Ionel Muntele, Faculty of Geography and Geology, the Al. I. Cuza University of Iași

Scientific supervisor: Prof. Univ. Dr. Corneliu Iațu, Faculty of Geography and Geology, the Al. I. Cuza University of Iași

Scientific reviewers: Conf. Univ. Dr. Ștefan Dezsi, Faculty of Geography, Universitatea Babeș-Bolyai Cluj Napoca Prof. Univ. Dr. Elisabeta Jaba, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, the Al. I. Cuza University of Iași C.P.I. Dr. Speranța Pîrciog, National Scientific Research Institute for Labour and Social Protection

We hand in the abstract of the doctoral thesis and invite you to participate in the public defence.

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Table of contents

I. Introduction 5 I.1. Subject matter 5 I.2. Conceptual and methodological aspects 12 I.3. Workforce: the state of the art 17 II. Factors that influence labour market 27 II.1. Economic structures in Iași County 27 II.1.1. Some aspects of the post-decembrist economic transition in Iași County 30 II.1.1.1. The dynamics of the number of economically active units in Iași County 35 II.1.1.2. The recent dynamics and the structure of turnovers and investments in Iași County 37 II.2. Agriculture as a discriminatory factor in income security 43 II.2.1. The utilization of arable lands in Iași County 44 II.2.2. The quality of arable lands and the percentage of degraded lands – limitative factors in agricultural productivity 48 II.2.3. Average size and number of farms 51 II.3. Transport accessibility: favourable and unfavourable conditions for labour resources in Iași County 55 II.4. Education as a favourable factor for entering the labour market 61 II.4.1. The analysis of the accessibility to the secondary education services 61 II.4.2. The analysis of Iași County population education level 65 II.4.3. School population as a workforce reservoir 69 II.5. Modification of the correlation between younger and older population and its impact upon the labour market 73 II.6. Population absent from Iași County and working abroad in 2011 78 III. Quantitative analysis of the vulnerabilities of labour resources 81 III.1. Economic activity rate of labour resources 83 III.1.1. Economically active population abroad (2002, 2011) 84 III.2 Employed population rate 89 III.2.1 The relative dynamics of employed population in the main fields of economic activity 91 III.2.2. The relative dynamics of employed population at the LAU2 level (2010 compared to 1991) 93 III.2.3. Employed population rate territorial differences 98 III.2.4. The dynamics of the employed population percentage of the total economically active population 100 III.2.5. The typology of the Iași County employed population economic structure 104 III.2.6. The relation between population education level and agriculture employees percentage 108 III.2.7. The correlation between employed population and

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economically active population in agriculture 111 III.2.7.1. Economically active population in agriculture (2011) 114 III.3. The recent dynamics of private entrepreneurs 116 III.4. The unemployment and the vacant jobs 118 III.4.1. The unemployment 118 III.4.1.1. The evolution of the unemployment rate in post-decembrist period 118 III.4.1.2. Territorial differences of the unemployed percentage in the population 15-64 years old in Iași County (2012) 120 III.4.1.3. The Iași County unemployed population structure in 2011 123 III.4.1.4. The dynamics of the unemployment rate from 2002 to 2011 126 III.4.2. The vacant jobs 129 III.5. Multi-criteria analysis of the LAU2 units development level in Iași County 132 IV. Qualitative analysis of the labour resources vulnerabilities 140 IV.1 Revenues – between economic precariousness and financial development 141 IV.1.1 The level and the recent evolution of the salary revenues 141 IV.1.1.1. Average net nominal salary 141 IV.1.1.2. Average net nominal salary by economic activity in 2011 143 IV.1.2. The level and the structure of households revenus in 2011 145 IV.2. Precariousness index of the labour resources 147 IV.3. The index of relative average occupational poverty 152 IV.4. The rate of economic occupational dependence 157 IV.5. European structural funds as a means of adjusting incomes and limiting the vulnerabilities of the labour resources 159 IV.5.1. European structural funds for rural development as a means of reducing poverty 163 IV.6. The correlation between workforce poverty and the determinant factors 166 V. Policies and strategies in terms of labour market 175 V.1. The analysis of official strategies and plans for employment 175 V.1.1. European employment strategy 176 V.1.2. The employment national official level 180 V.1.3. The regional action plan for employment and social inclusion (2011-2013, North-East Region) 182 V.2. Policy application in terms of employment at the level of Iași County 183 V.3. European funds-based projects for employment and economic development 192 V.4. Programs for SMEs 195 V.5. Rural Development National Plan 2007-2013 – active measures and investments for reducing poverty and structural modernization of rural spaces 198 V.6. The situation of rural loans and financial support 202 V.7. The French model of the Community-supported agriculture as a model for decreasing the precariousness degree of labour resources in agriculture 205 V.8. The regional income tax – financial measure for encouraging investments and employment 208

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V.9. Synthetic analysis of possible directions concerning labour market 212 Conclusions 223 List of references 226 Figure list 230

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I. Introduction I.1. Subject matter

The subject of the present research is an interdisciplinary one; its geographically-oriented character is highlighted by the spatialization of the phenomena under discussion, the classification of each area and bringing to the limelight those which are most vulnerable to demographic or workforce disequilibrium - either real or potential. The vulnerabilities of the workforce consist in a low level of income (or its absence), which means monetary insecurity (these vulnerabilities are considered to be qualitative). The aim of the present analysis is to identify what are the qualitative vulnerabilities of the workforce (taking into account the fact that, theoretically speaking, this should maintain the society as a whole), how their dynamics have developed recently, what percentage of the workforce can be considered poor (depending on its social and occupational status) and what are the LAU2 units of Iași County where the vulnerabilities are most clear and acute, with a high percentage of population without income or with an income lower that the national average one. Taking into account the fact that the labour market (and implicitly its offer - the workforce) is an extremely complex system, it should be admitted that its vulnerabilities include not only income precariousness, but also labour (in)security and the dynamics of some absolute and relative indexes which are linked with the efficiency and the structure of the labour resources (quantitative vulnerabilities). These indexes are relevant for the workforce in particular as well as for the resident population in general. Their decrease can lead to an increase in social charges (various types of insurance) of the social-economic system. Apart from looking more closely at the workforce dynamics and its vulnerabilities, we have also analyzed those factors that influence labour market, trying to bring to the fore the causes (either direct or indirect) of the outlining of the workforce dynamics and its temporal, structural, quantitative and qualitative vulnerabilities. This study would not be complete without the analysis of politics and strategies concerning labour market (where it was possible, since the databases at the level of territorial-administrative units are in some cases not to be found), their classification and the synthetic analysis of the strategies concerning labour market (continuing the existing strategies and suggesting the new ones). Having carried out the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the vulnerabilities, we may either confirm or (in some cases partially) disprove the following hypotheses: The main hypothesis is that the dynamics of the indexes related to the quantitative workforce vulnerabilities in Iași County is a negative one, whereas the dynamics of the indexes related to the qualitative (monetary) workforce vulnerabilities is a positive one; however, this trend is rather modest. The secondary hypothesis is that the gap between the two areas of residence because of different index values related to both quantitative and qualitative vulnerabilities have grown in post-december period.

I.2. Conceptual and methodological aspects

Labour market (or workforce market) is (Cretoiu et al., 1992) an economic area where the demand for workforce (those in possession of a capital) and the workforce offer meet, confront each other and negotiate freely; this system provides the equilibrium of the offer and the demand through salary. According to INS, workforce (labour resources) is a category of population possessing a number of physical and intellectual capacities which allow working fruitfully, including the working-age population (able to work) as well as those under and over the working age, but still working. Because of the absence of the data concerning the amount of labour resources that has already been mentioned above, in this analysis under the notion of workforce we mean either active population (potential offer), or active domestic workers (the reason for including this category shall be explained below), or over 15 and under 64 year old population. These notions can hardly be called perfect synonyms; however, they suggest a similar relation to the labour market, representing the human factor of production (real or potential). Generally speaking, vulnerability is someone's susceptibility to be affected, as well as its weakness. It has a number of other meanings; thus, in geography it is also widely used in environmental geography, especially to express a potential exposure to natural and anthropogenic hazards. In this study vulnerabilities are defined only by social-economic conditions which produce not only structural vulnerabilities as such, but also those at the spatial and temporal levels (Liverman, 1990). Thus, vulnerabilities were divided into quantitative and qualitative, trying to explain both the territorial differences caused by different intensity of the phenomena and the temporal dynamics which, in its turn, can magnify or, on the contrary, limit the effects of the respective vulnerabilities. Quantitative vulnerabilities refer to the amount of labour resources (economic activity rate, employed and unemployed population dynamics, the dynamics and the relation between employed and unemployed population in agriculture, and the dynamics of vacancies), suggesting (in)security of occupation, whereas qualitative vulnerabilities are exclusively financial (either monetary or non-monetary), suggesting financial (in)security of the workforce which means both the income level (salary or non-salary) and the indexes through which the estimation of poor population in Iași County at the LAU2 level was carried out. Moreover, the indexes of social-

5 economic state of the population were not regarded as vulnerabilities as such, but as some factors that sharpen or diminish quantitative and qualitative workforce vulnerabilities. Even though some authors tend to consider such indicators as population involved in various forms of education or the degree of transport accessibility to be vulnerabilities, we regard them as the indicators of human development which immediately (or quite soon) influence the quantity and quality of labour market in particular and the social-economic system in general. A special attention should be paid to those two indexes created for calculating the poverty level of workforce, based on the census data concerning the employment structure of population. First comes the precariousness index of labour resources seen as the percentage of the working-age population that do not get remuneration in form of salary or payment in kind and do not have any personal income. The calculation formula includes the percentage of the unemployed (ILO), contributing family workers on their own farms and domestic workers in the total number of active and domestic population. The second index is represented by the relative average occupational poverty which means the percentage of all occupational categories of active and domestic population with the income higher that the national average (meaning a monthly mean value per person of a farm) of the total active and domestic population along with unemployed population, family workers and domestic workers, adding to these self-employed workers in agriculture and other sectors with the income of 60- 70% of the national mean value. As for the methodology, we used the dialectic method that helped to identify the relation between the workforce and the factors influencing it, as well as the processes concerning workforce, and the method of analysis and synthesis in following the behavior of each separate territorial unit as well as in creating spatial typology in terms of the similarities and differences of these units. The synthetic character of this work can be accounted for by using the method of the principle component analysis and the ranking method – multi-criteria methods that can lay the foundation for spatial diagnosis as well as for the elaboration of the development strategies for vulnerable units. Another method used in this study is the comparative one (through two interconnected methods – the inductive and the deductive ones); it was applied in comparing territorial LAU2 units or the dynamics of some financial indexes at the level of Iași County and North-Eastern region of , trying to explain such development - either from general to particular (contextualizing them) or from particular to general, by means of generalizing and synthesis. It should be mentioned in this connection that the analysis, synthesis and comparison were made possible by applying to the quantitative method (in case of both quantitative and qualitative vulnerabilities), i.e. accumulating statistic data, modifying, managing and working them out in ©Microsoft Excel, thus providing an objective analysis framework which would support the study and its argumentation. Passing from the descriptive level of the scientific discourse to the analysis of the territorial inequality of various indexes and rates would hardly be possible without applying to the cartographic method (which also implies modelizing) since the factual gross material cannot easily show the details of the analyzed phenomena as well as their different territorial intensity. In order to fulfill this aim we used the program GIS ©Philcarto which offered us a possibility to depict various territorial aspects with the help of various types of maps, which were then modified in ©Adobe Illustrator, the instrument of Computer-Aided Design.

I.3. Workforce: the state of the art

It is generally believed that being aware of the state of the art in a certain field offers a possibility to have a clear vision on the given topic as well as on the previous studies in the field. If in case of the factors influencing labour market, its vulnerabilities or the social-economic precarious state of the population (including the rural one) a number of geographic studies have been carried out, this can hardly be true of the labour resources - a topic which, at first sight, belongs to the domain of economy or sociology. However, any aspect of social or economic factors is reflected on a personalized territory. Thus, even though there are some studies in the field of labour geography where the authors attempt to structure the distribution of these phenomena and to create spatial typologies or to explain the dynamics and relations between the indexes under discussion; this is aimed at coherent diagnostics of the vulnerabilities which are inevitably implied when talking about these phenomena the majority of which are considered at the national or NUTS3 level (it almost exclusively uses the census data). The studies conducted at the LAU2 level are mainly sectorial (however, this does not mean to say that such studies are less complex, qualitative or useful); this leads us to an integrated approach to the problems confronted by the workforce. Thus, the analysis of the previous studies in this field was conducted in two directions: studies on the factors influencing the dynamics and territorial relations influencing the workforce (which can as such be regarded as vulnerabilities) or to the general precarious social-economic state of the population and the studies on the internal mechanisms of the labour market as well as on the vulnerabilities which they directly imply. At the international level the biunique relations between demographic structures and the demand for workforce were very well explained by Barthélemy, Granier and Robert (2009), paying special attention to the demo- economic phenomena of dependence as well as to the job demographics; the relation between the evolution of active population and economic dynamics (seen as an equilibrium between the active and inactive population) was discussed by Chauvin and Plane (2001), whereas Blanchet (2011) looked more closely at the impact of

6 demographic changes upon the growth of the labour market. At the national level the relations between demographic indexes and those of the workforce was the subject of the study conducted by Ghețău (2007), thus referring to the way demographic decline influences the size and structure of economically active population; this was also discussed by Muntele and Țurcănașu (2009) - the representatives of Iași geographic school; they state that the effects of demographic aging are an impact of the repulsive character of Romanian rural areas. Social-economic precarious state of the population was subjected to research now and again at the international level. The analysis carried out by some authors (Barthou, 2008) also includes the case of Romania; their discourse is oriented towards the growth of financial gap between the population with high and low income as well as on the issue of subsistence agriculture, which usually is less productive. Moreover, Bioteau (2010) also discusses the economic evolution in Romania (paying special attention to the indexes relevant to the labour market – unemployment and employment rates, recent evolution of real salary income etc.) as well as the situation of micro-financing (including that of the rural credit). The author stresses the total absence of active international NGOs in the sphere of micro-financing in Western Moldova (present in Romania only in the counties of Banat, Crișana, Transilvania and the municipality of Bucharest). At the national level, Ianoș (2010) analyzes the socially and economically disadvantaged areas, at the same time creating an index of the development at the LAU2 level which contains the internal migration rate, the percentage of senior citizens, residence surface/resident, the number of sanitary personnel per 1000 residents, recent dynamic of resident population from 1992 to 2002, the percentage of economically active population in agriculture, children’s mortality and the number of TV-sets per 1000 residents. This is the final analysis of the social-economic state of population revealing some major problems confronted by the respective vulnerable areas; however, the development indexes do not take into account labour resources, but the total number of resident population. As for studies concerning labour market at the international level, Castree et al. (2004) suggested the analysis of employed work in postmodern economy, highlighting the effects of globalization on labour market, whereas Beffy (2008) conducted a study on the salary dynamics on the French labour market, also discussing the vulnerabilities connected with the insecurity of occupation which have recently become even more pressing in Hexagon. In Romania such studies concerning the labour market vulnerabilities appeared quite recently; the reason for this may be the pre-decembrist system which did not admit the existence of such disadvantages and tended to stress only the advantages of the system of centralized and planified economy. Iațu (2004; 2005; 2006) is an author that paid attention to the issues concerning typological evolution of unemployment in Romania as well as the dynamics of the mobility of population or the relations between the workforce and the demography in general (especially the disequilibrium between them). He summarizes the existing vulnerabilities on the labour market and thus identifies the most affected areas (NUTS3) from this point of view, while Iațu, Jaba and Pintilescu (2007) studied the impact produced on the labour market by the economic structure of population from an interdisciplinary perspective (the geographic and economic ones), analyzing the dynamics of various social-economic indexes from 1990 to 2003 not only at the national, but also at the regional and county level. To this we have to add the study conducted by Preda (coord., 2009) where he discusses the issues of financial insecurity as well as those concerning quantitative vulnerabilities on the labour market. This study is centered on the issue of the poverty of working population (self-employed workers and even employed population) or that of farms where at least one member has a job.

II. Factors that influence labour market II.1.1. Some aspects of the pos-tdecembrist economic transition in Iași County

The industrial sector proved to be the most affected economic sector in Iași County. This can easily be observed when analyzing the evolution of the index of industrial production. The most substantive decrease was registered in 1990-1994, from 100% (starting point) to 87,5% in 1990, 50,%3 in 1992, 41,1% in 1993 and 37,1% in 1994; thus, the physical volume of industrial production decreased to two thirds in five years time. A slight increase in 1995 was followed by a new period of decrease from 1996 to 1999 to the relative value of 28,8% of the level of the year 1989. This was the period of total privatization in Iași County; however, it resulted in a new decrease in production and amplification of the risk of closing some units. This was followed by a period of relative stagnation until 2002 (reaching the relative value of 28%) and a modest revival in 2003-2004 (up to 30,8%) due to the boom of the textile industry units of the lohn type which used poorly educated workforce from Iași (10% of the structure of industrial production in 2004) as well as those in metallurgical industry (in 2003 a new privatization takes place - that of Tepro, which later became ArcelorMittal Tubular Products) with the percentage of metallurgic production of the total industrial production increasing by 8 per cent from 2002 to 2004, from 4% to 11,8%. Next comes a new period of decline worsened by financial and economic crisis of the late 1990-s; it reaches the absolute minimum of the whole period under discussion - 16,1% in 2010. The most affected branches of industry proved to be metallurgical, chemical, textile production and food industry. The years 2011 and 2012 saw a new increase up to 31,8% which means renewing external contracts as well as establishing some companies statistically registered as active in the fabrication of new vehicles for public transport, trailers and

7 semitrailers (Delphi, Continental); their percentage in the total production in 2010 (the last year with the available data concerning the industrial production structure) amounted to 16,4%, and there is a strong possibility that this percentage grew in years that followed.

Figure 1

II.1.1.1. The dynamics of the number of economically active units in Iași County

On the one hand, according to the official definition (NIS, 2012), local economic units are enterprises having a certain address which undertake economic activities in which one or more persons are involved (EEC Regulation nr. 696/1993). On the other hand, active units are represented by those which produce some goods or provide some services, register their expenditure and create a bank account.

Figure 2

In the pre-1997 period the number of active units used to have an ascendant dynamics; it began in 1990-1991 when a number of small commercial units were established (this assertion can be seen most clearly due to the increase in the percentage of population employed in commerce). The following period (1997-2001) saw a relative stagnation of the total number of active units (10196 in 1997, 10286 in 1999 and 10081 in 2001). This stagnation, however, does not characterize the dynamics of the number of units in various sectors which are involved in agriculture or commerce; these units experienced a certain decrease in number (from 339 to 235 units in agriculture and from 749 to 6701 in commerce). Thus, commercial sector, where the numbers of employees in a unit is usually less than 10 persons, proved to be the most vulnerable one to the market oscillations; their number had been decreasing until 2002 because of the hyperinflation of small boutiques which appeared after the change of the regime (the so-called local proximity trade). In 2008, however, it increased again up to the maximum of 7399 to decrease again (more considerably this time) up to 5231 units in 2011 because of the decrease in the consuming capacity of population along with the difficulties caused by the impossibility of paying taxes, fees and delivery costs.

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II.2. Agriculture as a discriminatory factor in income security II.2.3.Average size and number of farms

The analysis of the average size and number of farms (the territorial level LAU2, according to the General Agricultural Census 2010-2011) is a means to bring into the limelight a profound character of its subsistence. Thus, farms were divided into two categories - those without legal personality (individual farms) and those with legal personality. The reason for such classification is not difficult to see - the reduced size of individual farms reveals a stronger probability of the reduced income of economically active unemployed population in agriculture, whereas a more increased average number and size of collective farms may be regarded as a synonym of growing productivity which is also reached by using employed workforce (even seasonal workers). The average size of an individual farm oscillates between 0.25 ha in Pașcani municipality and 3,03 ha in Golăiești commune (Prut Valley). The case of Golăiești commune whith the maximum value of this index can be explained by a more reduced number of collective farms, whereas the population either cultivates the land on their own, or lets it on lease, thus being the first commune in the county in terms of the percentage of irrigated lands of the total arable lands (5% - a significant percentage for Romania). Other units with significant average size which have to be named in this connection are some units from Jijia Plain (Românesti - 2,64 ha, Șipote - 2,51 ha, - 2,45 ha, - 2,43 ha, - 2,36 ha), the land where cereals, sunflower and oil plants are cultivated. Theoretically speaking, this is an advantage; however, a relatively large territory and thousands of tractors, ploughs and combines (especially in the East of Jijia Plain) along with low accessibility to markets make this advantage relative. Such units face a higher risk of leaving the land uncultivated or reducing the level of productivity which means small income in kind. On the other hand, some extremely small communes (Movileni - 0,83 ha, Țigănași - 0,75 ha) can provide income security of smaller incomes. It should be mentioned in this connection that these communes have mostly preserved association structures of the IAS type where the proprietors become also shareholders, with few land under the form of individual farms (gardens), most substantial parts of the property being in collective farms.

Figure 3

The present analysis is amplified with the average size of farms with legal personality; in this case the territories are much larger than those of the individual ones (between the minimum of 2,1 ha in Mădârjac and the maximum of 679 ha in Brăești). Moreover, from this point of view we may distinguish two compact areas: in the cereal- oriented North-East and South-West characterized by cultivating potatoes and animal breeding; in the case of commune 267 ha are occupied by the most important economic unit Cotnari SA, with 1635 ha and 292 employees in 2010, and the Animal Breeding Association with 932 ha. Obviously, a larger number and media

9 territory of farms are an important step towards the objective of the development of an intensive and competitive agriculture. However, the local employed workforce is hardly used in this case, thus, the impact on the communes remains reduced (rent and land tax). Here we may recommend not only the stimulation of employment, but also the encouragement of the associations of individual farmers where they would have the status of shareholders (there still exist a number of communes with large agricultural territories which are not used by collective farms) in order to enjoy direct benefits after using the land.

Figure 4

II.3. Transport accessibility: favourable and unfavourable conditions for labour resources in Iași County

Transport accessibility is a sine qua non condition for the economic development of any geographic area which does not depend on the spatial scale which is referred to. Iași County is a periphery area not only at both the national and the European levels (here we mean the European Union). Such disadvantaged position is the result of the process of the state formation of Romania as well as the formation of some more or less imperial organizations, thus creating the border between two large geopolitical organizations - EU and CIS. However, the attention was paid first and foremost to the local level of accessibility which, theoretically speaking should be favourable for the economic development, workforce mobility and, implicitly, the security of employment or monetary income. As far as the road accessibility from the nearest urban centre is concerned, the most vulnerable area is that in the North-East of the county with the values of over 40 km in such communes as , Andrieșeni, Șipote, Focuri, Gropnița, Trifești or Vlădeni. Another isolated area is situated in the South-East of the county - the communes of Cozmesti, Grozesti, Mosna and Rãducãneni also have to do with the values of over 40 km. Road accessibility should be studied through the prism of the (in)efficiency of public transportation roots which creates favourable conditions for the workforce mobility towards the polarizing urban centres (for example, the municipality of Iași). Having consulted the web pages of bus schedules in Romania, we can affirm that a large number of the localities of the county do not have a direct connection of between the city and the respective locality, whereas the distance-time relation does not encourage mobility; the same can be also referred to the distance-price relation. For example, between the commune of Fântânele and Iași there is the only daily route which takes 2 hours and costs 8 RON. For an employed worker which earns a minimum net salary (approximately 600 RON) and goes to Iași every day, 20 days a month, it presupposes spending 320 RON a month - more than a half of the earned monetary income. Moreover, there is a number of localities which have no transport connection with Iași at all (Andrieșeni, Dagâța, Coarnele Caprei). As far as the road accessibility of LAU2 units in Iași County to the nearest railway station is concerned, such communes as , Belcești, Andrieșeni, Movileni, Dagâța, Tansa and even Scânteia and Șcheia are in a

10 relatively advantageous position - there is a greater probability of the workforce mobility to the urban centre with a larger and a more diverse labour market. As has already been mentioned above, the communes in the South- West of the county can hardly be named privileged in terms of the accessibility to the railway; among other disadvantaged areas there are some communes in the North-East (Tigănasi, and Trifești), North (Plugari, Coarnele Caprei and Focuri) and South (Sinești, Mădârjac and Țibana). Moreover, even though a locality has a railway station, here come the distance-price and distance-time aspects. For example, a commuter from Ceplenita situated 58 km far from Iași has either to pay 7,3 RON for a one-way ticket (thus resulting in 300 RON a month) or to buy a monthly ticket which costs 206 RON (for those from the town of Hârlãu a second-class ticket costs 9 RON, whereas the price of a monthly ticket is 255 RON).

Figure 5

Thus, we may conclude that the most inaccessible areas (in terms of the absolute distance, price and time) are those from the North-East, South-East and South of Iași County. The absence of some small polarizing centres, the limiting factors of time and money, the absence of an integrated transport system, and the absence of jobs at the local rural level are a vicious circle which inevitably leads to the inaccessibility which means a lower level of employment and the income precariousness of the economically active population in rural area.

II.4. Education as a favourable factor for entering the labour market II.4.1. The analysis of the accessibility to the educational secondary education services

In this section of the paper we stick to the analysis of the accessibility to the secondary education services (in 2011) since the demand for the level of education in these educational units is the main objective of the Lisbon Strategy (along with the increase in the demand for the alumnae’s with professional education). Theoretically speaking, a qualitative change in this direction can limit the vulnerabilities caused by professionally ill-prepared young population in labour market. In order to reach this goal of the European strategy, the Ministry of Education added to the number of lyceums in rural areas in 2008-2009; this was done in attempt to meet the demands of the local rural communes. Taking into consideration the concept of territorial system of formation- job, meaning the interaction between communities, employers, students, NGO-s etc. as well as between these people and territory (well-delimited formation and insertion basins) (Caro, 2006), this iteration can be improved in terms of spatial overlapping of the two complementary components. In 2011 the number of administrative- territorial LAU2 units in Iași County with the units of secondary education accounted for 33. New communes offering this type of educational services are equally scattered round the territory of the county; they are represented in Jijia Plain (with the exception of the Western part of the commune of Victoria) - Plugari, Coarnele

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Caprei, Focuri and Gropnița, as well as the South-central part of the county - Prisăcani, Cozmești, Mogoșești, Șcheia, Țibana și Dagâța, Dumești, and Brăești, and the Western part - , Tătăruși, Cotnari, Valea Seacă, Cristești, Miroslovești and Stolniceni-Prăjescu.

Figure 6

The measure of creating lyceums in rural areas is welcome: it creates a better competition between the local polarizing centres and the four urban centres with efficient educational polarization and diminishes the percentage of interstitial un-polarized (or hardly polarized) territories in general. To this we have to add that in case if even a part of the alumnies remains in places where they received education and if they are actively encouraged by means of employment-stimulating measures, such situation is a premise for further local economic development. However, the discrepancy between the number and qualification of the alumnae’s and the local labour market (which can be stimulated and molded) will inevitably lead to poverty, sending a number of economically active population to work in extensive agriculture or boosting international migration, thus accelerating the aging of population and contributing to economic stagnation.

II.4.3. School population as a workforce reservoir

In this section we shall present the analysis of the territorial differentiation of school population percentage (from kindergartens, primary and secondary schools) of the total resident population, according to the latest data available (2011). The analysis was aimed at the identification of administrative-territorial units or areas which will become the reservoirs of workforce (either local, or through migration towards the centres with a more dynamic labour market). The structure and amount of school population are the factors which influence (or soon will influence) the labour market. At the territorial level, the percentage of school population (with the exception of lyceums) of the total resident population varies between 7,59% in Bârnova commune and 20,56% in commune in the South of the county. Some positive trends can be observed along the median axis of the North-East, from Plugari-Șipote to the area where Dagâța, Țibana, Mironeasa, Șcheia and Scânteia are placed, whereas Iași Metropolitan area as well as Siret Valley (the West of the county) see a decrease in school population percentage. Generally speaking, a high school population percentage of the total resident population in the South of the county with such average size is substantial. In such communes as Moțca, Lungani, Scânteia or Grajduri a high percentage of school population as well as that of large farms can be linked with a relatively numerous roma population (taking into consideration only those children which entered educational units). This workforce reservoir cannot be considered without taking measures for social integration of this community.

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Figure 7

We can affirm the fact that the main reservoirs of workforce of the county are its central areas with some extension to the South and North-East, as well as the municipality of Iași, if we take into consideration the lyceum and university population which, at least partially, will be integrated into the labour market of Iași. The most vulnerable areas are those in the West of the county; these areas risk to be depopulated in medium-term perspective. This problem, however, is characteristic not only of these areas, but also of those with high percentage of school population. Their massive migration to Iași (or to other urban centres and abroad) can hardly be unfavourable for the administrative seat which meets its demand for workforce, however, this will not lead to economic and demographic involution of the rural areas under discussion if some measures of economic development and diversification are not taken and the employment and growth of agricultural productivity is not encouraged.

II.5. Modification of the correlation between younger and older population and its impact upon the labour market

In the interval between two last censuses (2002, 2011) Iași County lost over 60 thousand residents - from 816910 to 756658 people (the final data of PHC 2011 after the applied corrections). It is caused first and foremost by international migration which implicitly affects the age structure of the population; thus, the number of no longer working senior citizens clearly prevails. Even though the activity, occupational and employed population rates decreased in post-decembrist period, at present there still are some more or less qualified labour resources left: they are either unemployed, or employed in subsistence agriculture with minimum labour productivity. Thus, in a short-term perspective the situation in the labour market can be improved by means of professional trainings, active diversification of rural economy, the growth of salary income, active measures to encourage the reduction of unemployment etc., whereas in a medium- and long-term perspective this can lead to the workforce penury and some more serious social-economic implications including an increase in charges of the employed population (especially employed population, proprietors, and private entrepreneurs) upon inactive population. The replacement rate index calculated in 2002 and 2011 (the data presented here is the official data of the censuses) which represents the correlation between the population under 19 and over 65 years old oscillated between 0,91 in the commune of Țuțora and 7,68 in the town of Târgu Frumos in 2002; in 2011 both figures decreased and the indexes varied from 0,69 in the commune of Tansa and 4,15 in the commune of Mironeasa. According to the official data, in 2011 there were six LAU2 units where senior citizens are greater in number than young population (Tansa, Țuțora, Costuleni, Movileni, Dobrovăț and Românesti) and 29 units where this index varies between 1 and 1,5. These units make up three main areas: the South-East (Dolhești, Cozmești, , Grozești, , Ungheni, ), the North-East (Șipote, Andrieșeni, Bivolari, Vlădeni and Probota) and in the West and South-West of the county (Lespezi, Vânători, Tătăruși, Cristești, Miroslovești,

13

Mogoșești-Siret, Stolniceni-Prăjescu, Heleșteni, , Butea, Oțeleni and Brăești).

Figure 8

Generally speaking, the modification of the correlation between ages is caused by a slight increase in the number of senior citizens along with massive decrease in young population because of the migration of the whole family as well as the decrease in fertility of the population remaining in the county. The situation in Iași County is not as critical as it is in other units of the same territorial level in Romania since there is a significant number of the population under 24. The taken measures and their efficiency are of a great importance here; they include providing possibilities for professional trainings, stimulating the insertion of Roma population in the labour market, gradual increase in salary income, dynamisation and diversification of labour market (in rural areas) etc. The latter may determine the reverse migration of those who left for the West as well as some immigration trends.

II.6. Population absent from Iași County and working abroad in 2011

In the present analysis we included both the long-term absent population (more than 12 months) and the temporary absent one (less than 12 months) in correlation with the total population (resident population together with the long-term absent one). At the county level 6,98% of the total population is absent (the total population - 807286; the absent population - 56373, including 21435 absent less than 12 months and 34938 absent more than 12 months). The minimum was registered in the commune of Gorban (the South-East of the county, on the border with Vaslui County and the Republic of Moldova - 1,7%), whereas the maximum was registered in the commune of Butea (the South-West of the county, on the border with Neamt County - 30,49%). The LAU2 units where the situation in terms of absent population is more alarming are evenly distributed throughout the territory of the county; however, they are a little more concentrated in the West-central part (Mircești – 17,83%, Hălăucești – 17,37%, Oțeleni – 16,32%, Valea Seacă – 14,38%, Miroslovești – 11,81%, Strunga – 11,41% etc). Some of these communes have large catholic communities whose migration was stimulated by the confessional institutions (in general to the South of Pascani), others saw a substantial decrease in the number of family

14 workers and domestic workers who lives abroad at least partially (to the North of Pascani - a higher percentage of school population in such communes as Todirești and Sirețel suggests that migration has not affected the whole families, but their economically active members). The reduced relative values from the South and the North-East of the county can be accounted for by the fact that a higher percentage of over 65 years old population in these areas limits the scale of migration.

Figure 9

The fact that eases this grave economic situation is the number of temporary absent population from the total absent population (Hălăucesti - 960 from 963, Alexandru Ioan Cuza - 305 from 305, Coarnele Caprei - 294 from 295, Heleșteni - 157 from 161, Mironeasa - 340 from 341). Not taking into account the possibility of census error, the fact that the absolute majority of the population absent from the rural area left for less than 12 months may be considered an advantage since such population is usually poor-qualified and it returns home after earning a certain sum of money.

III. Quantitative analysis of the vulnerabilities of labour resources III.1. Economic activity rate of labour resources

During the period under discussion the values of the occupational rate in Iași County remained under the national mean value (80,4 compared to 82% in 1990, and 50,7 compared to 59,6% in 2011, the last year with available data). Moreover, the values of occupational rate in North-Eastern region of Romania were higher than the national ones only in the first two years after the change of the regime; later the trend became negative, the value decreasing by 5% against the national mean value. This situation became even worse after 2005-2006: in 2011 the difference reached 10% (49,7 against 59,6%). As far as the relation between the North-Eastern region and Iași County is concerned, the relative values of this index as well as its temporal evolution of these two territorial levels are markedly similar: the North-Eastern region saw the rates inferior to the Iași County’s mean value by 2- 3% in post-2004 period; this situation eases in 2011 when the difference amounts to one per cent (49,7 as against to 50,7%). The main reasons here are the economic restructuring (massive release in first years after the fall of the regime of Ceaușescu as well as the disintegration of agricultural associations), and international migrations which first and foremost affected the working age population.

15

Figure 10 The evolution of the labour resources economic activity rate, 1900-2011, %

III.1.1. Economically active population abroad (2002, 2011)

In order to cover the dynamics and the territorial manifestations of the phenomenon of short-term external migration, we carried out the analysis of the percentage of economically active population abroad at the LAU2 level in Iași County which was based on the data of the last two censuses (2002, 2011). We took into consideration only temporarily absent population (less than 12 months) since long-term migrants cannot be regarded as resident or economically active population.

Figure 11

At the county level the relative values increased from 1,5% in 2002 to 5,94% in 2011. From 21435 temporarily absent residents in 2011, 16220 are economically active and 75,5% of the migrants left in order to work. In 2002 the minimum registered at the LAU2 level accounted for 0% in the communes of Grozești and Grajduri, while the maximum accounted for 13,16% in the commune of Butea, while in 2011 both extremities of this amplitude saw some positive trends – 0,72% in the commune of Brăești and 37,89% in the commune of Hălăucești. In 2002

16 this percentage was significant in the Western part of the county (the localities with the important communities of Roman Catholics), in Iași Metropolitan Area (the population with a high level of education, the pioneers which encouraged migration before lifting visas for Romanian citizens) or in certain communes with mediating organizations recruiting and placing the workforce. In 2011, however, the number of LAU2 units with at least 5% of places of employment increased dramatically, along with the extension of the phenomenon in the East- central part of the county. Whereas the phenomenon of commuting can be regarded as a reflection of the system of economic territorial interactions which is guided by a clear spatial geometry and can ease the gaps appearing between administrative units and different categories of economically active population, we may consider the phenomenon of external migration to be a means of the reduction of the workforce poverty level, while their drastic decrease can lead to some serious social effects and the absence of economic dynamism.

III.2. Employed population rate

The dynamics of the employed population rate is a negative one at the levels of the whole country, its North- Eastern region and Iași County, with a slight increase in 2004-2008. The relative values of this rate in Iași County saw negative dynamics against the national mean value and, at the same time, positive dynamics against the regional mean value during the whole period under analysis (1990-2011). Thus, the level of the rate in 1990 (maximum) accounted for 61,7 at the country level, 54,4 at the level of the North-Eastern region and 56,7 in the county under discussion. In 2011 at the same territorial levels the rate reached 30,9, 20,5 and 24% respectively. During the whole analyzed period we have observed a chronic impossibility to prevent the decline of the employed population (from approximately 250 thousands in 1990 to 135 thousands in 2011 – nearly halving – in Iași County). This can be accounted for by the absence of considerable investment because of the peripheral position of the region in general and the county in particular in terms of large cash flow as well as by the character of collective mentality – unwillingness to risk or to assume responsibilities.

Figure 12

III.2.2. The relative dynamics of employed population at the LAU2 level (2010 compared to 1991)

From 89 administrative-territorial LAU2 units, 31 saw positive trends, whereas 58 experienced negative ones, the general trend of the whole county being a descendent one. In the administrative seat of the county employed population decreased by 37,17%, from 162685 persons in 1991 to 102201 persons in 2010. This can be accounted for by closing large industrial units (or reducing their production which inevitably leads to massive and collective dismissals), opening new commercial and industrial units in suburban areas, the general trend of the aging of population, massive and continuous external migration and an increase in the number of independent workers. Such situation of relative and absolute decrease of employed population repeats itself in all urban or proto-urban localities: Pașcani (-78,5%, the most dynamic decrease in Iași County, from 26518 to 5696 employees – the city still remains an industrial centre, taking into account the fact that 2700 out of 5696 employees work in secondary sector), Hârlău (-72,9%, from 5994 to 1623 employees – almost a half, 761 people, work in medicine and education), (-61,1%, from 2127 to 827 employees, 385 people are occupied in local public administration, medicine and education) and Târgu Frumos (-60,7%, from 6815 to 2674 employees). On the other hand, substantially positive dynamics was registered in West-central part of Iași County; the most representative example here is that of the commune of Mircești (which includes the new communes of Mircești and Răchiteni), with an increase by 121% (from 337 to 775 employees). The only case in the North-East of the county is the commune of Țigănași, with the positive dynamics of 114,7% (from 225 to 483 employees), however, in this case it is the agricultural sector that is responsible for such growth (255

17 employees in 2010). Since the reference point is so low, an establishment of, grosso modo, more than 10 employees is immediately affected. This situation, in fact, reveals the necessity for investments and the encouragement of establishing commercial units which, even quite limited in number, can have an impact upon rural areas.

Figure 13

III.2.4. The dynamics of the employed population percentage of the total economically active population

Generally speaking, there is a quantitative improvement compared to 2002; however, in terms of absolute value, the number of employed population is undersized compared to 1990 (the local database) and 1992 (national population and housing census). At the county level the percentage of the employed population amounted to 52,72% in 2002 and 64,93% in 2011, whereas the differentiation according to urban/rural mean value imposes a clear distinction – in cities it saw a positive evolution from 80,7% to 93,31%, while in rural areas – from 26,26% to 39,52%. In terms of absolute values, however, positive dynamics was registered only in rural areas (from 46,1 thousand people to 60,4 thousand people), while in the five LAU2 units with urban status the number of employees decreased from 134,1 thousands to 129,9 thousands. At the territorial level, the smallest gap between relative values of the employed population percentage of the total economically active population accounted for 8,19% (the commune of Focuri), while the largest one amounted to 82,88% (the municipality of Iași) in 2002; in 2011 this gap widened (from 75 to 81%), whereas the minimum and maximum values saw a significant positive evolution – 14,11% in the commune of Focuri and 95,05% in the municipality of Iași. In 2002, among the communes with rather low relative values there were Șipote (9,85%), Sinești (10,15%), Golăiești (10,16%), Gropnița (10,38%), Coarnele Caprei (10,89%), Costuleni (10,91%), Dolhești (11,37%) and Plugari (11,5%), while the municipality of Pașcani (74,3%), Târgu Frumos (70,85%), Hârlău (64,84%), and Podu Iloaiei (57,44%), as well as the communes from the suburban area of Iași – Tomești (65,15%), Rediu (63,02%), (59,2%) and (50,98%) – saw positive dynamics; the relative values of the rest of the LAU2 units accounted for less than 50%. In 2011 the minimum values were characteristic of Țibana (14,12%), Brăești (14,47%), Șipote (16,25%), (17,01%), Dolhești (18,08%), Cozmești (18,57%) și Moșna (19,69%) – the communes situated mainly in the Northern and Southern extremities of the county and less polarized to the urban centres, with a limited transport accessibility. Even though the increase in the employed population percentage of the total economically active population is a positive trend, such optimism should be moderated since the evolution can partially be explained by some external factors (external migration of economically active population in agriculture and demographic aging), while the fact that quite a few communes still have the percentage of 30% (including Răducăneni which was suggested as an urban centre) does not create an honorable image for a county the administrative centre of which aspires to be declared the regional capital,

18 but can hardly stir up the whole labour market of Iași County.

Figure 14

III.2.7. The correlation between employed population and economically active population in agriculture

The correlation between employed population and economically active population in agriculture is one of the most vulnerable ones faced by the rural area in Iași County. A slightly diversified structure of employed population and the consequences of the Land nr. 18/1991 lead to a vicious circle after which all rural population (including farmers) had to suffer. Atomizing agricultural property – an effect of understanding de-collectivization just as a liquidation of the cooperatives which existed in pre-revolutionary period – and not foreseeing the possibility of their transformation in private units organized according to the cooperative (Popescu, 2001) is the cause of a hardly significant percentage of the population employed in agriculture of the total economically active population in this sector. Figure 15

19

In 1992 20973 employees were registered at the county level (15,56% from the total economically active population in agriculture, including employed as well as unemployed population); after almost two decades, in 2011, their number amounted to just 3422 (3,65%). The fact that the whole period under analysis saw a descendent dynamics can be accounted for by the liquidation of ex-cooperatives and the decrease in the productive capacity of the units that managed to turn into agricultural exploitation with legal personality which also lead to limiting the number of employees. Thus, there are two main problems from the point of view of the relation between employed and economically active population in agriculture: the first one is a negative dynamics of the number of employees in agriculture during the whole period under analysis (even though the agricultural potential of some areas of the county such as Jijia Plain or viticulture area of Răducăneni or Bohotin, is significant), while the second one is a continuous decrease in the percentage of employed population of the total economically active population in this sector.

III.4.1.1. The evolution of the unemployment rate in post-decembrist period

The evolution of the unemployment rate at the three levels of the analysis is extremely oscillating in post- decembrist period. This can be accounted for by both almost permanent aspects (restructuring Romanian economy in the first decade characterized by a number of collective dismissals, rapid deindustrialization and few job offers as well as rebuilding economy in the second decade meaning an increase in standard of life and the number of job offers as well as that of the international emigrants) and temporary ones (reconsidering the program of economic restructuring in 1994-1996 or the effects of the bankruptcy of private enterprises in 2008 and dismissals in government payroll).

Figure 16

At the national level the unemployment rate oscillated between 3% in 1991 and the maximum of 11,8% in 1999. Generally speaking, the North-Eastern region and Iași County followed the national trend; however, the registered values were up to 8% higher than the national level until 2000 when a decrease began. In the case of Moldova the de-structuring of economy was carried out earlier, and in 2002-2003 the gap between the national and the regional and county levels decreased not only because of foreign investments, but, first and foremost, because of the workforce migration abroad.

III.4.1.4. The dynamics of the unemployment rate from 2002 to 2011

According to the data of two last censuses, the unemployment rate lowered at the county level – from 10,32% in 2002 to 5,18% in 2011. Negative dynamics of unemployment rate can be explained by a relative revival of the economic environment of Iași as well as by international migration – at least a part of the emigrants risk to become unemployed in case of homecoming. In 2002 the unemployment rate amounted to 13,22% in cities and 7,57% in rural areas, while in 2011 it accounted for 7,16%, and 3,39% respectively. The reduced values in rural areas can be explained by the absence of the interest in employment or by the absence of available jobs, rather than by a better economic and financial situation. A considerable percentage of the unemployed in rural areas do not get any kind of allowance or financial aid; they represent long-term structural unemployment. In fact, unemployment in such areas can hardly be estimated since economically active population in subsistence agriculture can be regarded either as unemployed, or as a part of masked unemployment or semi-official employment.

20

Figure 17

At the territorial level, in 2002 the maximum level of the unemployment rate was reached in the commune of (23,41%), while the minimum was registered in the commune of Horlești (0,64%). In 2011 these positions were occupied by the municipality of Pașcani (9,98%) and the commune of Bivolari (0,42%) respectively. In both years under analysis the most unemployment-affected areas were urban centres as well as the communes from the Iași Metropolitan Area: those in the Western part of the county and the proto-urban ones or those situated along the transport axis. On the other hand, the areas with a more reduced unemployment rate are the South-East of the county, Jijia Plain and some LAU2 units from the West which are not easily accessible by public transport. In comparison with the number of the unemployed officially registered in December, 2012 (according to the Iași County Employment Agency data), the phenomenon of unemployment was sub dimensioned in the census in a number of cases discussed above. During the 9-year period between the censuses under discussion the level of unemployment decreased because of a relative revival of the county economic environment as well as the international migration phenomenon. Moreover, the level of unemployment in Iași County is almost identical as far as the data of the last census and the number of the officially registered unemployed in concerned (a little more than 15 thousand people); however, an under-registration of the unemployed in rural areas reflects the fact that, in fact, there are more than 15 thousand unemployed (both registered and unregistered) at the Iași County level (the real value accounts for approximately 20-21 thousand people – 7% of the active population).

III.5. Multi-criteria analysis of the LAU2 units development level in Iași County

In order to provide the synthetic approach of the issues related to the vulnerabilities of labour resources we applied a multi-criteria analysis of the LAU2 units development level in Iași County using the ranking method. To fulfill this task we used nine variables (eight relative and one absolute variable): the percentage of the school population of the total resident population (the population from pre-school, primary and secondary school systems), the level of unemployment (the number of the unemployed aged 15-64), the replacement rate indexes (the correlation between the population under 19 and over 65 years old), road accessibility to the closest urban centre, the total resident population, the employed population rate, the number of apartments built on personal savings per resident, the income of the local council budgets per resident and the average size of individual agricultural exploitation.

21

The areas with greater vulnerabilities of the labour market are situated mostly in the county extremities, with a greater concentration in the South-Eastern and the Western parts. The first nine LAU2 units are urban or pseudo- urban; they include Iași, Pașcani, Târgu Frumos, Podu Iloaiei, Hârlău, Holboca, Miroslava, Lețcani and Cotnari. The administrative seat of the county is at the top of the list as far as the majority of the variables are concerned; at the same time it takes the 81st place in terms of the percentage of pre-school population – the capital of Moldova proved to be vulnerable because of a reduced birth rate (the 55th place in terms of the replacement rate index). What has just been said suggests that on the medium- and long-term perspective the labour market development in Iași will depend on the way it will be able to keep the alumni of lyceums and universities in its structures. Generally speaking, the situation in the municipality of Pașcani is similar to that of the administrative seat (the 79th place in terms of the percentage of school population, the 42th place in terms on the replacement rate index, the 46th place in terms of apartments building etc.); however, the level of unemployment here is much higher (the 32th place), whereas the economic post-decembrist difficulties encouraged massive migration abroad and the absence of a standard of living which could make the construction of new apartments affordable.

Figure 18

On the other hand, the most disadvantageous territorial-administrative basic units (places 70-89) are situated mostly in the South-Eastern and the Western parts of the county: Grozești, Moșna, Comarna, Butea, Tansa, Ciortești, Gorban, Stolniceni-Prăjescu, Costuleni, Țuțora, Ungheni, Cristești, Valea Seacă etc. Generally speaking, these disadvantageous positions appeared because of an insignificant percentage of senior citizens (along with the decline of young population), reduced accessibility, high unemployment level, low employment rate level and the reduced dimensions of agricultural exploitation. In the units from the Southern part of the county the repulsive character was moulded in the course of time, whereas in the Western localities it was caused by the recent external migration. Moreover, there are some disadvantageous localities in the North of the county as well; however, their frequency is more reduced – here the main cause is reduced accessibility, a small number of new apartments and under-dimensioned local budgets. The position of these localities is relatively favourable as far as the average size of individual agricultural exploitations and the mid-position in the percentage of school population and replacement rate index are concerned. The intermediate position is characteristic of the Iași-Pașcani axis; however, a part of the commune of Jijia Plain as well as that of the South-central area of the county, to the South of Coasta Iașilor, has a final intermediate rank owing to some positive demographic factors (Țibana, Lungani, Voinești, Sinești, Țibănești, Focuri, Popești) on the one hand and a high unemployment rate and a low employment rate on the other hand (apart from the commune of Țibănești – the 23th place in terms of the last index). Thus, these communes are workforce reservoirs; however, if the present precarious economic situation is faced again, these resources either will be condemned to poverty, or will form a new wave of migration.

22

IV. Qualitative analysis of the labour resources vulnerabilities IV.1.1.1. Average net nominal salary

Even though the number of employees saw mostly negative dynamics in post-decembrist period at the national as well as at the county level, the level of salary income increased substantially, especially in the last decade. From this point of view, during the period under analysis (2005-2011) the level of the average net nominal salary doubled at the three territorial levels. The average net nominal salary increase in Iași County from 703 RON in 2005 to 1342 RON in 2011; however, during the whole period under analysis it remained under the national mean value. Such gap was also registered in other counties with similar population and their economic activity. On the other hand, if the average net nominal salary in Iași was by 50 RON higher than that registered in other counties of the North-Eastern region in 2005-2006, at the end of the period under discussion this difference tripled: it reached 141 RON in 2011, which can be accounted for by a substantial increase in the number of jobs in the so-called quaternary sector in Iași County (information and communication, financial meditation and insurance).

Figure 19

Taking into consideration the inflation rate, we can conclude that the real average net monthly salary in Iași County saw positive dynamics from 2005 to 2008 (the year when the maximum Romanian GDP was registered) of approximately 300 RON; after this critical point it decreased up to 953 RON in 2011 (partially because of the growth of the VAT from 19 to 24% which provoked a decrease in purchasing power).

Figure 20

23

IV.2. Precariousness index of the labour resources

, where Iprec=precariousness index of the labour resources; S=unemployed population; LF=contributing family workers; C=domestic workers; PA= active population

The method of calculating the precariousness index of labour resources takes into account the employment situation of economically active persons which is represented by the correlation where a person is considered in terms of economic and social activity as well as the modality of obtaining means of leaving. In fact, this index was calculated as the percentage of the relationship between the number of the unemployed, contributing family workers and domestic workers (regarded as inactive) and the sum represented by active and domestic population respectively. It is these types of employment that were used in the analysis since, according to the official definitions, they do not obtain any payment – neither as a salary, nor as a payment in kind – and thus, they have no personal income.

Figure 21

In 2002 the precariousness index of the labour resources varied between 19,56% (the municipality of Iași) and 73,55% (in the commune of Schitu Duca); the county mean value reached 49,45%, which revealed the fact that almost a half of the county’s population do not have any personal income. The most vulnerable areas from this point of view are situated in the Southern and central parts of the county (, Dagâța, Dolhești, Dobrovăț and Costuleni), but also in the western ones (Cristești, Todirești, Lungani, Oțeleni, Valea Seacă or Mădârjac); here the percentage of contributing family workers of the total economically active population reaches 60-65%. This vulnerable area can also be prolonged in the Northern-central part of the county (Belcești, Focuri, Gropnița, Șipote, Bivolari or Plugari). On the other hand, the majority of the communes with a much higher unemployment rate than the county’s mean value (15-20%), such as the communes situated near the urban centres (Hălăucești, Ciurea, or Lespezi), are not characterized by high precariousness index of the labour resources, having insignificant proportions of domestic persons or contributing family workers. In the case of the communes which

24 are situated at a longer distance from the urban centres generating jobs, the inexistence of transport to these centres or its high cost are often perceived as a repulsive factor or as an obstacle to the labour mobility. However, the precariousness index in the municipality of Iași, the most important economic centre of the North- Eastern region of the country, has a significant value (almost 20%). Even though in comparison with other administrative-territorial units of the county, the municipality of Iași is in a privileged position – we should take into account its social-economic role as the growth pole of the whole North-Eastern region; thus, this position becomes quite relative. In 2011 the relative values of this index considerably decrease all around the county: they vary between 13,51 % in the commune of Lespezi and 60,02% in the commune of Brăești, while the county’s mean value accounted for 27,95% (as against 49,45% in 2002). Moreover, the value registered in the city of Iași is quite close to the minimum – 13,71%. This substantial decrease is caused by a number of factors: increase in the number of employees mostly from the LAU2 units of the county (the increase registered in 2011 is significant for relative rather than absolute values, since the number of employees was still undersized as compared with that of 1992 in the majority of the territorial units) as well as the aging of an important part of labour resources. Thus, we can affirm that precariousness decreased as far as labour resources are concerned; however, it was partially transferred in other categories of non-economically active population. Such transfer can also be observed when taking into consideration massive external migrations (typical of the whole county) which first and foremost affected the social and employment categories with either a modest income, or no income at all (contributing family workers, domestic workers, unemployed and even self-employed population).

IV.3. The index of relative average occupational poverty

, where: Isrmo=the index of relative average occupational poverty; S=unemployed population; AF=contributing family workers; C=domestic workers; LCP=self-employed population (in agriculture as well as in other sectors); PA=active population

The index of relative average occupational poverty takes into account the deviations of the total average monthly income of each social-occupational category in proportion to average income of the total population. The analysis of the available data (2001-2010, the national level) has shown than the economically active categories with the income above the average during the whole period under analysis are contributing family workers and domestic workers as well as unemployed population with the income level of 55-60% of the total mean value of the whole decade, and, surprisingly enough, self-employed population in non-agricultural activities with the income of 60-70% of the total mean value. Its values vary between 21,59 (the municipality of Iași) and 91,29 (the commune of Focuri situated in the Northern-central part of the county, the year 2002). Having compared this territorial distribution with the previous one, we may conclude that the urban units still tend to have the smallest percentage, with the second index increasing by 5%, whereas the Southern half of the county remains vulnerable from this point of view, with the percentage of the population self-employed in agriculture accounting for 25-30% and with negative trends of their average income. Such situation is caused by subsistent agriculture, reduced accessibility, a lower quality of the land (eroded or erodible) or the absence of important natural resources. It should be mentioned in this connection that the vulnerable areas in the West of the county (in terms of precariousness index) lose this feature giving floor to the Northern-central areas. The Western communes have similar values of the two indexes (60-70%); such situation implies the absence of a significant number of self-employed workers and a relatively high percentage of employees, at least with the reference to the Romanian rural areas, of approximately 30-40%. Thus, we can easily visualize a median East-West axis with the lowest values of the poverty index in the whole county which coincides with the trunk railway and the European road E583. On the other hand, the North- Eastern area of the county saw the values up to 85-90%, which is by 35-40% more than in the case of the index which marks the total absence of personal income. This situation may mean a high level of workers self- employed in agriculture as well as an extremely low number of employees. In 2011 this index also decreases all around the county; however, this decline is much more modest. The county’s mean value amounts to 47,58%, which shows than almost half of labour resources hardly have any income or its level is under the average income of other occupational categories. The minimum relative value was registered in the municipality of Iași (17,15% as against 21,59% in 2002, a decline caused by the decrease in the number of unemployed population), while the number of employed population remained relatively constant. The relative maximum value was registered in the commune of Brăești (90,18% as against the maximum of 91,29% in 2002 in the commune of Focuri) – one of the few cases of worsening during the last nine years. In 2002 there were 22 LAU2 units with the relative values over 86,3%, whereas in 2011 their number was reduced to 3, which at the county level amounted to 10-15%; this decrease was brought about by the increase in the

25 number of long-term absent population and a slight increase in the number of employees. Moreover, in 2011 a positive dynamics (as against the rest of the administrative-territorial units and the year 2002) can be observed in the case of the communes from the suburban area of Iași as well as from the West of the county; however, the decrease of the poverty index values can well be correlated, especially in the case of the Western part of the county, with the percentage of economically active population abroad of the total economically active population (from 5 to 38%, the county’s maximum). Thus, there is a number of catholic communes which risk to have some serious social-economic problems, even being partially depopulated.

Figure 22

IV.4. The rate of economic occupational dependence

The rate of economic occupational dependence as such consists in the relationship between inactive and unemployed population on the one hand and economically active population on the other hand, thus clearly showing the economic effort of active population which influences the expenditure on retirement and health insurance (Iațu, 2006). In the case of the economic occupational dependence reate we shall refer only to the population which gets a kind of payment or has a personal source of income (employees, proprietors and private entrepreneurs, self-employed workers and the members of agricultural associations).

, where: Rdeo=the rate of economic occupational dependence; Pin=inactive population; S=unemployed population; PS=employed population; P=proprietors, private entrepreneurs; LCP=self-employed workers; Msa=members of agricultural associations

In 2002 the most vulnerable areas were those in the South (the rates with the values over 4 in Schitu Duca, Ipatele, Dagâța and Dobrovăț) and West-central of the county (Mădârjac, Todirești, Ruginoasa, Belcești and

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Vânători). The county mean value was 2,618, which means that in Iași County the number of people receiving their income from the state (pension, family allowances, unemployment benefit etc) was more than 2,5 times larger than that of people with their own income. In 2011 the county mean value decreased up to 1,73 as a result of the relationship between the population with their own income and the population which either has no income, or receives it from the state budget – a reflection of social policy. Therefore, the decrease of inactive and unemployed population is more visible than the increase in the number of population with their own income. The growth of the number of pensioners was balanced (and even reversed) with the decrease in the rate as far as other categories of population are concerned. The number of unemployed population halved and some significant declines were registered in the case of domestic workers (partially as a result of external migration as well as the revival of labour market in the city of Iași) and school population in particular and young population in general (as a result of external migration and low birth rate).

Figure 23

IV.5. European structural funds as a means of adjusting incomes and limiting the vulnerabilities of the labour resources

During the period of 2007-2013 the financial values engaged in the approved European projects at the level of Iași County accounted for 2,72 billion RON, even though the sum was not entirely used. Their structure according to the sectors of activity reveals the fact that 34% of the total sum is given to environment projects (927 million RON); they are followed by educational projects (16% or 441 million RON), urban development projects (12% or 317 million RON), research and innovation projects (243 million RON), social infrastructure projects (218 million RON), tourism projects (185 million RON), agricultural/silviculture/fishery projects (180 million RON) and production sector projects (139 million RON). The last two categories of activity are characterized by more reduced sums of the total engaged financial values: strengthening of the administrative capacity (40 million RON) and information technology (27 million RON). The growth of incomes and, implicitly, the reduction of some vulnerabilities connected with their low level in some social-occupational categories can be either direct (payments for professional training, funds for establishing, modernizing and increasing the productive capacity of individual small farms, grants and trainings in the framework of the research-innovation sector or in order to insert or re-train some categories of population and even fixed-term employment, depending on the specialization, needs and the duration of various projects), or

27 indirect, when the income level is adjusted either by means of payments to the employees of both state and private organizations which extend or modernize social infrastructure, or by means of increasing the sales level (and, implicitly, the profit which can lead to new employments) of economic units dealing with commercial activities, selling equipment and construction materials. Thus, we can affirm the fact that in some sectors of economic activity (education, research-innovation, strengthening the administrative capacity) a large part of the sum is used directly for income adjustment, while in other cases the biggest part of the fund is meant for the acquisition of working capital, thus creating an indirect financial surplus.

IV.5.1. European structural funds for rural development as a means of reducing poverty

The present analysis is based on the data of the centralized situation of all the projects in the county with European financing published by the North-East Regional Development Agency as well as on the values of the engaged financial assistance given to the beneficiary through the National Program for Rural Development. We calculated an index capable to reflect their territorial distribution at the level of LAU2 administrative units: it takes into account the relationship between the total sum used by the beneficiaries in each commune and the active population at the same territory level. Thus, the county’s mean value accounts for 105 euro/resident, while the mean value of rural administrative units amounts to 181 euro/resident.

Figure 24

The areas with poor population, such as the Southern-central and North-Eastern ones, have the highest financial values per resident in the county. The sums engaged in the Northern area of the county are meant mostly for cereal agriculture projects, whereas those engaged in the Southern part of the county deal with horticulture (fruits and viticulture), which highlights agricultural specialization of each zone. 13 communes have not accessed the funds through this structural program, whereas their maximum referring to active population amounted to 2314 euro in the commune of Prisăcani. Here a question is bound to arise: what is encouraged by these funds – a better quality of production on large farms or a higher standard of living by means of increasing the income level (especially as far as the investments are concerned)? Both types of quality can be improved from this point of view by creating local jobs in some more isolated areas with a significant percentage of active population. By means of construction, extension and modernization of agro industrial complexes a positive dynamics can be reached as far as the number of non fixed term or seasonal jobs is concerned. To this we have to add that the sums allocated to the local budget by these economic units under the form of the property tax (and others, taking into account future regionalization and decentralization) are by no means ignored since they indirectly contribute to the local development. Moreover,

28 the sums available for the establishment and the development of small agricultural exploitations vary between 10 and 25 thousand euro per project, whereas the financial assistance meant to stimulate the growth of commercial production accounts for 7500 euro. Generally speaking, these small agricultural units are involved in fruits sector, horticulture and apiculture, whereas the impact of the absence of access to agricultural bank loans (which are mainly addressed to large exploitations) is softened by means of these funds.

IV.6. The correlation between workforce poverty and the determinant factors

By using the Pearson correlation coefficient, we tried to establish the relation between the index of workforce poverty and some of its determinant factors, which, in their turn, can represent some territorial vulnerabilities, as well as to create a typology of LAU2 territorial units from Iași County depending on the way each of them is related to the index of relative average occupational poverty and the road distance to the nearest city, the average purchasing capacity level of lands, the population with and without primary school education, the number of farms with legal personality and the average size of individual farms and those without legal personality. Thus, there is a positive correlation between the level of workforce poverty and the percentage of population with primary school education (0,347), the percentage of population with no education completed (0,177), road distance to the nearest city (0,163) and the average size of individual farms (0,137). The correlation is slightly negative in the case of the average purchasing capacity level of lands (-0,021), and rather negative in the case of the farms with legal personality (-0,273). This situation highlights the fact that the more isolated a commune is from the fluxes generated by cities, with a significant percentage of uneducated (or poorly educated) population and population with the land of small and very small size, the higher is the probability that its members will be affected by poverty. At the territory level, the LAU2 units in Iași County can be divided in five groups. The first one is made up of one administrative-territorial unit – the administrative seat of the county. Its position is justified by a correlation with a relatively significant number of farms with legal personality. Moreover, there is a very slight correlation with the average purchasing capacity level, whereas the rest of the correlations are negative. Iași represents the least vulnerable LAU2 unit as far as the present analysis is concerned.

Figure 25

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The fourth group is presented by 9 urban or suburban (pseudo urban) localities which are an extension of the first one, with a lower poverty index, which means that the percentage of the number of employees of the total active population is larger; this presupposes either a more diversified economic structure, or their dormitory-area character, in the case of Iași metropolitan area where the population is engaged mostly in the municipality of Iași. The second category (16 LAU2 units) is correlated with a high number of population with primary school education, a high level of poverty, and, at the same time, with a lower level of correlation with purchasing capacity of lands, a road distance to the nearest urban centre and average size of individual farms. The third class is the most numerous one (37 LAU2 units): there is a strong correlation with the purchasing capacity level, and a lower correlation with poverty index and the number of farms with legal personality. The quality of lands, the number of legal units as well as an easier access to the market (the negative correlation with the road distance to the nearest urban centre) and the percentage of more qualified population (the negative correlation with the percentage of uneducated people or those with primary school education) is the reason why these vulnerable areas with a higher poverty index have all the necessary characteristics for local development: the growth of the number of employees in agriculture as well as the diversification of economic structure at large. The fifth category includes 26 LAU2 units situated mainly on the periphery of the county; they positively correlate with a substantial percentage of uneducated population, low road accessibility and the average size of individual farms over the county’s average, along with a high correlation with the poverty index and the population with primary school education; the negative correlations are observed in the case of farms with legal personality and the quality of land. The majority of territorial units of this category are situated in the Southern part of the county, such as the units in the South-East and the South to the Iași Ridge – they are not easily accessible, the quality of land is low, but the average size of farms is over 4 persons (the largest from the county); thus, they represent an important potential reservoir of a yet uneducated workforce.

V. Policies and strategies in terms of labour market V.1.1. European employment strategy

The strategy is based on four principles: engagability – the ability to be engaged by developing personal competence; entrepreneurism – stimulation of the creation of jobs and legal organization of self-employed workers; adaptability – modernization of labour management and promotion of flexible labour agreements; and ensuring equal opportunities for both female population and other categories risking social exclusion. There is a number of objectives (specific aims) for community villages, some of which experience structural and territorial discrepancies between the Romanian/Iași relations and the community relations in general.  The general economic activity rate of 70% - the economic activity rate in Romania can approach the target value (59,6% in 2011, as against 50,7% at the Iași County level), whereas the values of the employed population rate are much lower – 30% at the national level and 24% at the Iași County level.  The economic activity rate of 50% as far as the persons over 55 and under 64 years old are concerned – in Romania the economic activity rate for 55-59 year old population is close to that figure (50,2%), whereas that of 60-64 year old population amounts to 22,9%.  At least 25% of long-term unemployed population should participate in taking active measures for occupational stimulation (professional training, training courses etc) – in 2012 at the Iași County level the number of the long-term unemployed population accounted for 11 thousand people, whereas 1159 of the registered unemployed did professional training or re-training. If all of them had been the long- term unemployed, 14% of the total unemployed population would have participated in this kind of active measures; however, the real percentage is much lower.  The percentage of at least 85% of 22-year old population with completed lyceum and professional studies; in 2012 the percentage of people aged 20-24 with completed lyceum or professional studies accounted for 64,7% at the EU level and 70,3% in Romania (as for the university studies, though, the percentage is higher at the European level – 15,6%, as against only 9,7% in Romania).  An average rate of school dropout under 10% - in Romania this rate amounted to 17,4% in 2012 (Eurostat, EU Workforce Questionnaire).  Improvement of the congruency between the demand and the offer on labour market. In 2009 in Iași County there were 21535 unemployed (in late July), 12589 vacancies and 8239 employments with the help of the Iași County Employment Agency. This situation reveals the fact that the correlation between the demand and the offer can hardly be called congruent, from both the qualitative (mainly financial) and territorial (a high percentage of vacancies in the municipality of Iași) points of view.

V.2. Policy application in terms of employment at the level of Iași County

Policies considering labour market through the prism of public interventions are classified according to the type of activity; thus, two main categories can be distinguished: active measures involving those who are in active

30 search for a job which finishes by the change of their status, and financial supports (passive measures) which provide disadvantageous categories on the labour market with some financial assistance. The majority of the measures are addressed to the registered unemployed population (even the stimulation of independent activity is limited to the registered unemployed population); however, it is necessary that such measures as professional training or loans for encouraging temporary employment should be addressed to unregistered unemployed population – those who are involved in subsistence agriculture (contributing family workers) and even domestic workers. The absence of practical approach (even though, theoretically speaking, the diversification of the employment opportunities in rural areas is an assumed priority of action) perpetuates the risk of discouraging the entrance to the labour market by rural population, indirectly contributing to the absence of prospects for those who are involved in subsistence agriculture – most typical representatives of the population of rural areas. At the Iași County level we carried out the analysis of the level and structure of expenditure on these measures concerning labour market at the level of the years 1993, 2002 and 2012. In order to ensure the compatibility of databases we used the percentage of gross sums of expenditure in 1993 and 2002 with the consumer price index which has the value of 100% for the year 2012. In 1993 the total expenditure accounted for 7,03 billion ROL (equivalent to 89,2 million RON, current prices in 2012) – an almost doubled value as against those registered in 2002 and 2012. In the middle of post-decembrist period the registered expenditure amounted to 255,1 billion POL (equivalent to 48,5 million RON in 2013). The last year of the analyzed period saw a decrease up to 46 million RON. Thus, out of 7,03 billion ROL 1993, 4,2 billion represented the expenditure for the unemployment benefit, whereas the support allowance amounted to 2,35 billion RON. That year 93% of the total sum was meant for the financial support on the labour market, while 7% were allocated to the active measures: 382 million ROL to the loans for small and medium-size business, 64 million ROL to professional training and 56 million ROL to graduated remuneration. In 2002 the total expenditure amounted to 255,1 billion ROL (48,5 million RON 2013) – it halved as against 1993, which can be explained by the decrease in the unemployment rate in Iași County up to under 10%. As far as their structure is concerned, an activization of the measures is obvious; however, the expenditure on passive measures remains minor. In 2012 the total expenditure saw a slight decrease as against 2002 – up to 46 million RON; we have to mention in this connection that it is the first time in post-decembrist period when the expenditure on active and passive measures is similar, with the relative value of 50%. In terms of percentage, the expenditure on passive measures are smaller than those registered in 2002 (62%); however, there is an increase in the expenditure on the measures dealing with unemployment benefits of the unemployed population with work experience (45% as against 40%) which presents an impact of a long economic-financial crisis. The loans given to SME-s and the stimulants for the encouragement of entrepreneurship account for 40% from the total expenditure (17,6 million RON) which points to the coherence and efficiency of such employment policy. The sums meant for graduated remuneration (8% or 3,5 million RON) increased by 5% as against that of 2002 which shoes that the unemployment of young population becomes less severe. Other categories of expenditure have modest percentage; here most remarkable is the case of the stimulation of workforce mobility (205 thousand RON) – only 12 persons were employed in the year under discussion, 3 of which had to change their residence. Thus, the fact that rural unemployed population remains static becomes a recurring problem.

V.7. The French model of the Community-supported agriculture as a model for decreasing the precariousness degree of labour resources in agriculture

A model of rural development by means of the reduction of financial precariousness degree comes from France – the so-called AMAP. This model (Associations pour le Maintien d´une Agriculture Paysanne – Communityy- supported agriculture) can contribute to the increase in the number of people who receives monetary income from this sector of economy, thus being a means of reducing the percentage of payments in kind, even in case of subsistence agriculture. This model presupposes signing a contract between a producer (or an association of producers) and a group of consumers, thus establishing the diversity of cultivated products, the modality of sales (on the farm itself or in the negotiated place in a city), the quantity purchased by consumers and distribution schedule in advance. Thus, a secure income is ensured for the farmer (the products are partially or totally paid for in advance), the proximity agriculture without mediators is sustained and a social dialogue between the two residence types is encouraged. An important part of Romanian urban population still provides itself with the necessary alimentation in the marketplace; therefore, such return of agriculture can be transformed in an advantage. The only aspect that may be criticized here is the absence of transport which could bring the products to the market; this is what questions the efficiency of this policy in Romania. In fact, this so-called inconveniency can be surmounted either by means of including small agricultural producers in possession of vehicles in associations, or by means of providing with transport on part of the Ministry of Agriculture (or the county agencies) with the compensation of the price of the fuel used by each producer, depending on the quantity of the delivered production.

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V.9. Synthetic analysis of possible directions concerning labour market

The directions for ensuring employment  The continuation of the trend of activization of the measures financed from the unemployment insurance budget and paying much attention to the encouragement of the workforce mobility.  The continuation of financial stimulation for giving fixed-term jobs to students in order to contribute to the improvement of the employment rate of labour resources. At present, this stimulation is equal to 50% of the value of the initial social index (established by act nr. 76/2002 amended at the level of 500 RON) of unemployment insurance, deduced by the employer from the contribution of this insurance.  Providing some benefits (by means of active measures) for domestic workers (considered inactive, even though the majority of them present a working age population), subsistence (unemployed) farmers (along with the stimulation of establishing family associations or the authorization of natural persons) as well as of the inactive working age population with higher education for the purpose of employment.  The increase in the degree of the inclusion of young people from rural areas in lyceums and professional education units. A large part of rural area in Iași County faces the phenomenon of demographic aging; therefore, some measures are to be taken as far as professional training of young people is concerned, in order to provide better opportunities for employment in the labour market for labour resources as well as local development in short- and medium-term perspective. Thus, the programmes for entrepreneurship stimulation or the SME-s establishment should have a special component meant for the graduated young people from rural areas. This is bound to develop practical skills in agriculture (or other activities, if the option consists in the diversification of rural economy) – the skills which may prove to be more valuable on the labour market than some more or less random studies.

The directions for ensuring income  The growth of the level of the initial social index value on which the calculations of both the level of stimulants offered to employers and the unemployment benefit (for alumni it accounts for 50% of its value, for unemployed population with the payment period of at least a year it amounts to 75%; the percentage increases along with the growth of the period of payment) are based. Even though the minimum wage level has recently grown, the initial social index value remains unchanged – it amounts to 500 RON.  The continuation of progressive growth of gross salary income (February 1, 2013 – 750 RON, July 1, 2013 – 800 RON). A gross salary of 800 RON includes the contribution to CAS (pensions) – 10,5% (84 RON), the contribution to CASS (health) – 5,5% (44 RON), the contribution to CFS (unemployment fund) – 0,5% (4 RON), the income tax – 16% (after paying social insurance and a personal exemption of 250RON), which amounts to 77 RON. Thus, from July 1, 2013 the net minimum wage will account for 601 RON.  The continuation of the access to the funds through the operational sectorial programmes for the Development of Human Resources and Increase in Administrative Capacity, with the impact upon indirect beneficiaries (people involved in professional training) as well as the indirect ones by means of rising their income after fulfilling the job.  Attracting the investments and supporting self-employment characterized by salary income over the average (financial-banking activities, IT etc). A positive trend in the dynamics of salary income in Iași County suggests that the net nominal monthly salary will reach 1705 RON in 2015 (according to the National Forecast Commission, 2012).  Ensuring consultations as far as the family management is concerned in regard to the management of subsistence agriculture with minimum income and reducing the risk of the dissipation of this income (Ianoș and Heller, 2006).

Directions for rural and agricultural development  Sustaining proximity and ecologic (subsistence) agriculture through a model of the AMAP type by means of ensuring product market as well as the dialogue between the two residence areas and a secure and reliable income.  Sustaining large and medium-size farms by means of improving the level of mechanization, including the EAFRD structural funds. At the country level there are 183 thousand tractors on the territory of 8,3 million ha of arable land, whereas in Poland – a country with a similar situation – there are 1,5 million tractors on the territory of 14 million ha of arable land (FAO).  Reducing the costs of delivery and sales between rural areas and cities, thus stimulating the establishment of economic units in rural areas (in units which provide services or are involved in industrial activities) and resulting in economic structural diversification of the territory as well as an easier provision with agricultural products.

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 The continuation of the tax system based upon the form of income, depending on the respective norms established by the state according to which farmers are to declare the tillage as well as the livestock, whereas the financial authorities calculate their income taking into account the single tax of 16%.  The continuation of providing agricultural subsidies (according to the Complementary National Direct Payments and the Single Area Payment Scheme) and the facilitation of the access to loans for rural areas (including the Rural Credit Guarantee Fund); these loans should become more flexible because of the extension of the range of potential beneficiaries. Apart from subsidies (addressed to a wide range of farmers with a low eligibility level), some micro-loans should be granted to those who do not meet the eligibility requirements or are not authorized persons or family associations.  The creation of primary social assistance services at the local level where they have not yet been provided since the most serious social problems are mainly located in rural areas, being an impact of a precarious rate of employed population, semi-official economic activity in agriculture (and, thus, financial insecurity) or poorly qualified human resources.  The prioritization of the measures for rural development, taking into account some specific features of individual rural areas (Muntele, Groza, Țurcănașu, 2002).

Directions for the integrated development if county’s economy  Increasing monetary values of export, according to the theory of export basis as an explanatory theory of regional growth (Ianoș and Heller, 2006). The export percentage of Iași County accounted for only 1% of the total national value (381,1 million euro as against 37,36 billion euro); in these conditions the percentage of labour resources of the total national value amounted to 3,81%.  Raising the level of gross and net investments as well as attracting foreign investors, especially in secondary and tertiary sectors in order to reduce the effects of unsuccessful privatization and abolishing active units caused by both economic transition and financial crisis (adaptation after Iațu, 2006).  Sustaining tertiary and quaternary sectors (especially those with a substantial added cost) in order to maintain a highly-qualified workforce, especially university alumni. Here we refer not only to mediation between various economic entities from the West (ex. call-centres) which use cheap workforce of Iași, but, first and foremost, to creative and innovative economic activities.  Diversifying external product markets by increasing sales amount, including the Eastern markets. Iași County is situated on the North-Eastern periphery of Romania and the Eastern extreme of the European Union; therefore, strengthening commercial relations with these states would have a beneficial effect, creating a multi-directional cash, goods and services flow which would ensure re-centralization of the county in European context as well as a better polarization of the areas on the border of Iași County, according to the principles of the Central Place Theory by Christaller.

Conclusions

Taking into account the complexity of the problem (explained by its inter- and multi-disciplinary character) and the multitude of possible interpretations, this research tried to preserve an objective and neutral approach, basing almost all of its conclusions upon both already known and new indexes, the calculation of different degrees of correlation between some data and multivariate geographic analysis as territorial synthesis. On this basis it was possible for us to affirm or negate the working hypotheses depending on the results obtained during the research. The main hypothesis was almost fully affirmed as far as qualitative vulnerabilities of workforce are concerned (apart from the dynamics of real average nominal net salary correlated with the consumer price index that proved to be slightly negative) and partially affirmed in the case of its quantitative vulnerabilities. In the first case, the income level saw mostly positive inflexions, whereas, generally speaking, this growth also influenced the turnover of active economic units or gross investments (with an expected rollback in 2008-2009). Moreover, the percentage of poor population or that with no personal income decreased in the period from 2002 to 2011 (the precariousness and poverty indexes) owing to external migration of a significant part of unemployed population in agricultural sector. In the second case, the hypothesis was confirmed as far as the employment rate and the rate of employed population are concerned (the latter should be analyzed with much attention since, according to the variations of the data gathered by the Labour Inspectorate and data based on free-choice answers - Population and Housing Census -, the level of informal employment is rather high). At the same time, the hypothesis was not confirmed in the case of the dynamics of unemployment rate (owing to economic development of Iași County and external migration), the dynamics of the number of vacancies and the dynamics of migration phenomenon (however, there are still a number of LAU2 units where this percentage exceeds 75%). The secondary hypothesis was also partially affirmed. Thus, there is a substantial percentage of vacancies in the urban areas of Iași County (what we mean is the administrative seat), whereas the percentage of unpaid long- term unemployed population is more significant in rural areas. Even the establishment or increase in productive

33 capacity of some economic units can hardly fight unemployment in rural areas. The only notable exception is Iași Metropolitan area where less than 50% of the total unemployed population represents structural unemployment. From the administrative point of view this territory is rural; however, its labour market is typical of urban areas – it is inextricably linked with the evolutions of the centre which polarizes it. Moreover, in cities the rate of employed population increased during the period between the two censuses (up to the maximum of 95% in the municipality of Iași); on the other hand, there are a number of communes where this relative value amounts to 15-20%. To this we have to add that, taking into account the increase in the number of employees in tertiary and quaternary sectors (IT, financial mediation etc, localized in the administrative seat) registered in recent years, the gap between the average level of salary income of the two residence areas was amplified. The secondary hypothesis was affirmed as far as the precariousness and poverty indexes are concerned – in rural areas the percentage of poor workforce decreased due to external migration of contributing family workers, self- employed and domestic workers as well as to sustained economic development and establishing new economically active units (such establishment had quite a punctual character: agro industrial units in a range of communes uniformly distributed around the territory of the county as well as the active units in secondary and tertiary sectors in Iași Metropolitan area or in the communes along Siret Valley).

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List of references

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