RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH

FOCUS ON: PARSONS GREEN 2016

FOCUS ON: THE LOWER 2018/19

CONNECTIVITY DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE FORECASTS FOCUS ON: THE East ’s regeneration accelerated in the wake of the 2012 Olympic Games, and was hailed by Mayor Sadiq Khan for shifting the capital’s centre of gravity to the east.

The Games brought with them upgrades The Lower Lea Valley is well suited for to local amenity and infrastructure, which new residential development due to its supported an influx of new residents proximity to London’s main financial and businesses. Now, population centres in the and Canary growth in Tower Hamlets and Newham Wharf, its relative value compared is projected to outpace all other inner to other locations so close to boroughs over the coming London, and its connectivity to the rest decade, according to the of the UK and beyond by rail and air Authority (Fig. 2). (Fig. 5). This has helped underpin strong house price growth in the area over the FIGURE 1 Supply and demand past decade. Values have risen by 80% Number of homes bought with Help .21 Much of the housing that will support on6.91 average, outperforming both the wider to Buy equity loans since scheme 6.0 this population growth is planned in the boroughs of Newham and Tower Hamlets .

began in 2013 KC Lower Lea Valley, an area which includes over the sale time (Fig. 4). 2.0 City of London -by-Bow, Stratford, Bow, Future growth is likely to be supported Poplar and , and straddles by upgrades to infrastructure and public Haringey Camden Hackney 12.80 11.30 10.93 10.60 9.3 9.00 8. 8. Newham Tower Hamlets Tower the boroughs of Tower Hamlets.22 and Newham. Here, more than sixty projects realm, the emergence of Stratford as a of 80 private units or more have consent major commercial, retail, education and or have commenced construction, employment hub, and a handful of very according to data from Molior (Fig. 3). large residential and commercial projects Together, they comprise more than that will deliver new amenities. Newham 450 20,000 private homes, to be delivered over the coming two decades. Commercial property The projects will provide much-needed The Lower Lea Valley sits adjacent to additional housing, which has fallen the City of London and short of official projections for housing financial districts. Both office markets need in the wider area. There were have proved resilient since the vote 9.3 9.00 8. 8. .22 .21 6.91 6.0 . 2.0 12.80 11.30 10.93 10.60 7,204 net additional dwellings delivered to leave the European Union in June in Tower Hamlets and Newham during 2016, with a number of large companies Tower644 Hamlets the 2016/17 financial year. Annual committing toTH new office space, and housingARK need in these boroughs is 8,713, investors setting records for office Source: Knight Frank Research/MHCLG according to MHCLG. investment deals. ANDSWO R TOWER HAMLETS NEWHAM LEWISHAM HACKNEY SOUTH W HARINGEY ISLINGTON CAMDEN LAMBETH WESTMINSTER W HAMMERSMITH & FULHAM K&C CITY OF LONDON

FIGURE 2 Projected population growth, 2018–2028 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 4 0 6 6 45 0 06 TH R SEA ARK W NGTON ANDSWO TOWER HAMLETS NEWHAM LEWISHAM HACKNEY SOUTH HARINGEY ISLINGTON CAMDEN LAMBETH WESTMINSTER W HAMMERSMITH & FULHAM KENSI AND CHEL CITY OF LONDON

Source: Knight Frank Research / GLA

2 Please refer to the important notice at the end of this report RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS

INCLUDES BUILD TO RENT

SELECTED MAJOR PROJECTS

RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS

SIZE OF DOTS CORRESPOND INCLUDES BUILD TO RENT 266 83 TO NUMBER RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS OF PRIVATE UNITS SELECTED MAJOR PROJECTS

INCLUDES BUILD TO RENT

LOWER LEA VALLEY SELECTED MAJOR PROJECTS RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS THE LOWER LEA VALLEY 2018/19 RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH SIZE OF DOTS CORRESPOND 266 83 INCLUDES BUILDTO TO NUMBER RENT OF PRIVATE UNITS FIGURE 3 RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS STRATFORD SIZE OF DOTS RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS SELECTED MAJOR PROJECTS WHAT’S IN THE PIPELINE? CORRESPOND BOW 266 83 TO NUMBER Residential and commercial projects to be delivered 2018–2038. BROMLEY-BY-BOW OF PRIVATE UNITS INCLUDES BUILD TO RENT LOWER LEA VALLEY POPLAR INCLUDES BUILD TO RENT

SELECTED MAJOR PROJECTS SELECTED MAJORWANSTEAD PROJECTS FLATS HERE EAST LOWER LEA VALLEY SIZE OF DOTS CORRESPOND Three buildings totalling 1.2 million sq ft LEE VALLEY VELOPARK INTERNATIONAL 266 83 TO NUMBER of commercial and retail space created QUARTER LONDON OF PRIVATE UNITS from the press and broadcast centres A joint venture between Lendlease STRATFORD of the Olympic Games. The site is home and London and Continental Railways to businesses from the technology, BOW a few minutes-walk from Stratford’s media and education sectors ranging SIZE OF DOTS BROMLEY-BY-BOW QUEEN ELIZABETH stations that will includeCORRESPONDSIZE 4 OFmillion DOTS sq ft from established names to startups. OLYMPIC PARK 266 83 of commercial space, TOCORRESPOND333 NUMBER new homes, LOWERPOPLAR LEA VALLEY Tenants include BT Sport, Loughborough 83 STRATFORD 52,000266 sq ft of shops OFand PRIVATE restaurants. UNITS University, and a startup incubator Plexal. TO NUMBER BOW OF PRIVATE UNITS BROMLEY-BY-BOW WESTFIELD POPLAR LOWER LEA VALLEY LIDO LOWER LEA VALLEY STRATFORD WATERFRONT PARK This will bring together UniversitySTRATFORD College AND London, London CollegeBOW of Fashion, FISH ISLAND Victoria and Albert MuseumBROMLEY-BY-BOW and a new VICTORIA PARK Sadler’s Wells East 550-seat theatre. UAL Hackney Wick has been central to the will integrate six sites onto onePOPLAR campus emergence of the creative industries in accommodating 6,500 students, while and is particularly popular STRATFORDUCL will create a new campus providing with SMEs. There are 600 studios in BOW STRATFORDmulti-disciplinary research, teaching and the area alongside the award winning BOW innovation in areas such as robotics, Yard Theatre and Hackney WickED BROMLEY-BY-BOW smart cities, culture and conservation for summer arts festival. New studios BROMLEY-BY-BOWPOPLAR around 4,000 students. and workspace are being developed POPLAR alongside the wider 5,500 home V&A MUSEUM OF CHILDHOOD regeneration of Hackney Wick.

MEMORIAL RECREATION GROUND

QUEEN MARY UNIVERSITY OF LONDON STEPHENSON STREET LONDON CITY ISLAND NEWHAM UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL A new neighbourhood on the site of Currently under construction, a former ParcelforceBRICK LANE depot.MARKET Berkeley Ecoworld Ballymore’s London City Group’s Stephenson Street site will OLD MARKET Island includes more than 1,500 include almost 2,500 private homes, a 4.5 LEISURE CENTRE & STADIUM private homes and 20,000 square acre public park, new shops, cafes and meters of office space on a peninsular restaurants and improved infrastructure. neighbouring Canary Wharf. The project Berkeley alsoGALLERY controls the neighbouring will include the English National Ballet’s Gasholders site, which could support an new home and a new footbridge additional circa 2,000 homes. connecting residents to the Elizabeth Line and DLR transport links.

EXCEL LONDON TOWER OF MUSEUM OF LONDON Source: Knight Frank Research/Molior BILLINGSGATE MARKET

3 4 THE LOWER LEA VALLEY 2018/19 RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH

As supply has dwindled in these markets, Together, these projects make up the East FIGURE 4 particularly for offices offering space of Bank, a new cultural neighbourhood akin House price performance in the more than 100,000 square feet, companies to the , which will bring an Lower Lea Valley compared have become more footloose and price additional 1.5 million visitors to Stratford Indexed 100 = September 2008 conscious. As a result, Stratford has each year. become a viable option for some firms 190 The City of London fringe has also Lower Lea Valley hunting for new space. HMRC, for example, benefitted from increased willingness from 180 Newham has chosen Stratford for its 300,000 sq Tower Hamlets occupiers to look beyond traditional, core 170 ft new London hub and TFL, the FCA locations. Technology companies began and Cancer Research have each taken to proliferate on the fringes of the City of 160 floorspace of more than 100,000 sq ft. London in the years following the global 150 Companies were actively searching for financial crisis and the area is now a hub a cumulative 1.6 million square feet of for both startups and global firms. In 140 office space in Docklands, Stratford and Aldgate and Whitechapel, technology 130 surrounding areas during Autumn 2018, companies have leased more than 700,000 according to Knight Frank research. sq ft of office space since 2015, according 120 The number of commercial developments to Knight Frank data. 110 has increased as a result, with several Expedia, Groupon and Uber are among 100 very large projects on or adjacent to the the companies that have taken space Olympic Park (Fig. 3). To the east of the here since 2015. 90

Park, International Quarter London will 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 include 4 million square feet of commercial Connectivity space. Less than 15 minutes walk away, Source: Land Registry / Knight Frank Research Here East comprises 1.2 million square feet The Lower Lea Valley is connected to of commercial and retail space in what was London, the rest of the UK and mainland the Press and Broadcast Centre during Europe by a plethora of tube lines, high speed rail and a nearby airport at the 2012 games. Closer to the stadium, London City. Stratford Waterfront will form the centre of a new cultural and education hub that The areas’ main stations at Stratford, brings together University College London, West Ham and Bromley-by-Bow enable London College of Fashion, Victoria and residents to travel to work in the City of Albert Museum and Sadler’s Wells theatre. London or Canary Wharf in 10–15 minutes,

FIGURE 5 Connectivity: London and beyond

5 MINS MINS MINS MINS MINS (TUBE) (TUBE) (TUBE) (TUBE, DLR) (TUBE, HEATHROW EXPRESS) 6 0 54 MINS MINS MINS MINS MINS (TUBE) (TUBE) (TUBE) (DLR) (TUBE, HEATHROW EXPRESS)

4 54 MINS MINS MINS MINS MINS (TUBE) (TUBE) (TUBE) (DLR) (TUBE, HEATHROW EXPRESS)

5 4 4 0 MINS MINS MINS MINS MINS (ELIZABETH LINE) (ELIZABETH LINE) (ELIZABETH LINE) ( DLR) (ELIZABETH LINE)

Source: TFL

5 to go shopping on Bond Street in about 20 Outlook minutes, or be at London City Airport for a “EAST LONDON, flight in 10–20 minutes (Fig. 5). East London, particularly along the River PARTICULARLY ALONG Lea and into the Olympic Park, is set High speed trains run from Stratford to provide a significant proportion of THE AND INTO International Station to St Pancras London’s new housing over the coming THE OLYMPIC PARK, IS International in seven minutes, where decade and beyond. The scope of SET TO PROVIDE A travellers can connect to Eurostar services residential development taking place in to mainland Europe. High speed trains also the Lower Lea Valley, alongside upgrades SIGNIFICANT PROPORTION run to Kent, known as the Garden of to infrastructure, is likely to attract more OF LONDON’S NEW , as far as Ashford International, amenity, which historically has helped HOUSING OVER THE COMING which takes 30 minutes. underpin house prices. DECADE AND BEYOND.” Connectivity in the Lower Lea Valley, The average price of existing homes in the will be further augmented from 2019, wider London market are forecast to climb Patrick Gower, Residential Research when the Elizabeth Line, formally known by 2.5% in 2019, with cumulative growth of [email protected] as , opens at Stratford, cutting 13.1% by 2022, according to Knight Frank journey times to destinations including data (Fig. 6). Meanwhile, rents are forecast Heathrow, which will take 48 minutes, to climb by 13% by 2022. However, Bond Street, which will take 15 minutes, there is room for outperformance in areas and Liverpool Street, which will be cut to that are undergoing large-scale changes seven minutes. through regeneration and development.

FIGURE 6 2018–2022 Forecasts, May 2018

LONDON SALES LONDON RENTS

2018-2022 % 40% 5% 5% 0% 5% 0% 0% 5% 05% 5% 2018-2022 0%

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Knight Frank Research

RECENT MARKET-LEADING RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecasting

RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH to a wide range of clients worldwide including

The global perspective on prime property and investment LONDON CROSSRAIL developers, investors, funding organisations, ANALYSING PROPERTY MARKET PERFORMANCE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ELIZABETH LINE 2017 HOTSPOTS RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT corporate institutions and the public sector. OPPORTUNITY AREAS 2018

THE WEALTH REPORT 2018 All our clients recognise the need for expert independent advice customised to their specific needs.

2018 12th Edition HOW HAVE PRICES LOOKING TO THE FUTURE: DEVELOPMENT PERFORMED? CROSSRAIL 2 PIPELINE AREAS TO WATCH PRICE FORECASTS MARKET UPDATE The Wealth Report Crossrail – 2017 UK Housebuilding London Development – 2018 Report – 2018 Hotspots 2018 Get in touch

Knight Frank Research Reports are available at KnightFrank.com/Research If you’re thinking of buying or selling, or would just like some property Important Notice advice, please do get in touch. © Knight Frank LLP 2018 – This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Knight Frank LLP for any loss or damage resultant Raul Cimesa from any use of, reliance on or reference to the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank LLP in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report +44 20 7718 5227 in whole or in part is not allowed without prior written approval of Knight Frank LLP to the form and content within which [email protected] it appears. Knight Frank LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England with registered number OC305934. Our registered office is 55 Baker Street, London, W1U 8AN, where you may look at a list of members’ names.