1146 19th St., NW, Suite 200 Interview dates: 14-18 May 2010 Washington, DC 20036 Interviews: 607 registered voters in (202) 463-7300 227 Democrats/Lean Democrats; 257 Republicans/Lean Republicans Margin of error: + 4% for registered voters + 6.5% for Democrats; + 6.1% for Republicans

Political Polling in Florida: Wave 1 Research undertaken for: Herald, St. Petersburg Times, BayNews9, and Central Florida News 13

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted May 14-18, 2010 on behalf of the Miami Herald, St. Petersburg Times, BayNews9, and Central Florida News 13. For the survey, a representative, randomly selected sample of exactly 607 adults aged 18 and older across Florida who are registered voters was interviewed by Ipsos. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate within 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire population of registered voters in Florida been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the actual Florida registered voter population according to U.S. Census figures. Respondents were contacted on both landlines and cellular phones, and had the option to be interviewed in English or Spanish. Please note that throughout this document, figures based on Independent voters are indicative only due to very small sample size (25).

PARTY AFFILIATION / IDEOLOGY

1. Are you currently registered to vote, or not?

All adults Democrats Republicans Independents Yes 100 100 100 100 No 0 0 0 0

2a. Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an Independent or none of these? (IF “DEMOCRAT” TO Q.2a, Q.2b ASKED. IF “REPUBLICAN” TO Q.2a, Q.2c ASKED. IF “INDEPENDENT” or “NONE OF THESE” TO Q.2a, Q.2d ASKED. RESULTS SHOWN IN SUMMARY BELOW.) 2b. Do you lean strongly or only moderately toward the Democratic Party? 2c. Do you lean strongly or only moderately toward the Republican Party? 2d. Do your beliefs tend to lean more toward the Democrats or the Republicans?

Strongly Democrat 18 Moderately Democrat 14 Lean Democrat 7 Strongly Republican 17 Moderately Republican 15 Lean Republican 9 Independent (No lean) 5

Initial Democrats 34 Total Democrats 40

Initial Republicans 33 Total Republicans 41

Q3. I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2010, if the election for US Senator were held today, would you vote for Republican candidate , Democratic candidate Kendrick Meek or Independent candidate [ROTATE NAMES]?

All adults Democrats Republicans Independents Marco Rubio (Republican) 27 8 51 12 Kendrick Meek (Democrat) 15 33 3 7 Charlie Crist (Independent) 30 38 26 39 Candidate from another political party 2 1 1 9 Will not / do not plan to vote 3 2 0 5 Undecided 23 18 19 29 *Note that Ipsos does not allocate undecideds this far out in the election cycle

Q4. And if the election for Governor of Florida were today and the candidates were Republican Bill McCollum and Democrat Alex Sink [ROTATE NAMES], which one do you think you would vote for?

All adults Democrats Republicans Independents Bill McCollum (Republican) 34 11 65 26 Alex Sink (Democrat) 32 61 10 26 Candidate from another political party 4 2 4 5 Will not / do not plan to vote 4 2 2 12 Undecided 26 24 19 31 *Note that Ipsos does not allocate undecideds this far out in the election cycle

Q5. Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track? (ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE. IF UNSURE, ENCOURAGE BEST GUESS.)

All adults Democrats Republicans Independents Right direction 31 53 14 26 Wrong track 58 33 80 60 Not sure / Refused 11 14 6 14

Q6A. Overall, do you approve, disapprove or have mixed feelings about the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? IF “APPROVE” OR “DISAPPROVE”, ASK: Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? IF “HAVE MIXED FEELINGS/DK/REF”, ASK: If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove?

All adults Democrats Republicans Independents Strongly approve 25 47 7 28 Somewhat/lean approve 23 33 10 27 Still have mixed feelings 6 3 4 2 Somewhat/lean disapprove 18 10 26 21 Strongly disapprove 29 7 52 22 Not sure 2 1 1 7

Total Approve 48 80 17 55 Total Disapprove 46 16 78 42

Q7. Generally speaking, would you say things in Florida are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

All adults Democrats Republicans Independents Right direction 35 42 33 36 Wrong track 48 43 49 62 Not sure / Refused 17 15 18 2

Q8A. Overall, do you approve, disapprove or have mixed feelings about the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor of Florida? IF “APPROVE” OR “DISAPPROVE,” ASK: Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? IF “HAVE MIXED FEELINGS /DK/REF,” ASK: If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove?

All adults Democrats Republicans Independents Strongly approve 16 23 12 23 Somewhat/lean approve 36 38 34 39 Still have mixed feelings 10 5 13 2 Somewhat/lean disapprove 22 22 21 23 Strongly disapprove 17 12 20 12 Not sure 6 6 4 0

Total Approve 52 61 46 62 Total Disapprove 38 34 41 36

Q9. As you may know, Governor Charlie Crist has left the Republican Party and will be running for Senate as an Independent candidate. Does this make you more likely to vote for him, less likely to vote for him, or has it not changed your view of him? IF SAY ‘NOT CHANGED VIEW’ PROMPT WITH BELOW RESPONSES.

All adults Democrats Republicans Independents More likely to vote for him 24 36 12 26 Less likely to vote for him 21 11 35 10 Not changed my view – I would vote for him in any case 25 28 23 29 Not changed my view – I would not vote for him in any case 17 16 20 0 Not sure / Refused 12 8 9 35

Q10. Some people say that INSERT STATEMENT. ROTATE STATEMENTS. Other people say that INSERT STATEMENT. ROTATE. Which of these views comes closer to your personal opinion?

All adults Democrats Republicans Independents Charlie Crist’s decision to leave the Republican Party was an act of principle because he is following his convictions. 33 37 27 41 Charlie Crist’s decision to leave the Republican Party was an opportunistic decision and is purely political 47 42 54 40 Both 4 5 4 5 Neither 6 5 5 7 Not sure / Refused 11 11 10 7

I’m now going to ask you about Florida’s primary elections, which will be held in August, and will decide which candidates run against each other at the general election this November.

Base: Democrat at Q2a/b/c/d (base = 227) Q11A. If the Democratic primary for Senate were today and the candidates were Maurice Ferre, Kendrick Meek, and Jeff Greene [ROTATE NAMES], which one do you think you would vote for?

Maurice Ferre 10 Kentrick Meek 33 Jeff Greene 9 Candidate from another political party 3 Will not / do not plan to vote 4 Undecided 41 *Note that Ipsos does not allocate undecideds this far out in the election cycle

Base: Republican at Q2a/b/c/d (base = 257) Q11B. If the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida were today and the candidates were Bill McCollum, Paula Dockery, and Rick Scott [ROTATE NAMES], which one do you think you would vote for?

Bill McCollum 46 Paula Dockery 3 Rick Scott 22 Candidate from another political party 1 Will not / do not plan to vote 4 Undecided 25 *Note that Ipsos does not allocate undecideds this far out in the election cycle

I am now going to ask you about some other topics

Q12. As you may know, Florida Governor Charlie Crist recently vetoed the teacher tenure bill that was approved by Republicans in the Florida State House and Senate. This bill would have replaced multi-year contracts for new teachers, commonly known as ‘tenure’, with annual evaluations.

Do you agree or disagree with the Governor’s decision to veto the bill? PROMPT IF NEEDED: Is that strongly / tend to?

All adults Democrats Republicans Independents Strongly agree 39 41 35 35 Tend to agree 14 13 16 26 Neither agree nor disagree 7 6 6 7 Tend to disagree 10 11 9 11 Strongly disagree 19 18 23 15 Don’t know / Refused 12 11 11 7 Total agree 53 54 51 60 Total disagree 29 29 32 26

Q13. As you may know, Florida’s State Legislature has passed a new bill that would require ultrasound tests for pregnant women seeking abortions in the first trimester. The woman would be required to pay for the ultrasound, and look at the image or listen to a description of the image on the ultrasound. The new bill would also mean that the woman’s insurance would not cover the abortion if her employer accepts any government funds. Do you believe that Florida Governor Charlie Christ should veto this bill or allow this bill to pass into law?

All adults Democrats Republicans Independents Veto 55 60 47 72 Pass 31 26 40 26 Don’t know / Refused 14 14 12 2

Q14. Some people have suggested that Florida’s State Constitution should be amended to ban drilling for oil or natural gas in Florida waters, which extend to 10 miles off the coast. Do you personally support or oppose a constitutional amendment to ban offshore drilling in Florida?

All adults Democrats Republicans Independents Support a ban on offshore drilling 44 48 38 54 Oppose a ban on offshore drilling 44 41 51 35 Don’t know / Refused 11 11 11 11

Q15. As you may know, the state of Arizona recently passed a new law that, once police stop a person, requires local law enforcement officials to verify the immigration status of people they reasonably suspect of being in the country illegally.

Now, thinking about this new Arizona immigration law, imagine that Florida was considering passing the same immigration law that Arizona has just passed. Would you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this law being passed in Florida?

All adults Democrats Republicans Independents Strongly Favor 40 24 54 50 Somewhat Favor 19 18 21 15 Somewhat Oppose 11 12 11 16 Strongly Oppose 24 39 11 14 Don’t know / Refused 6 7 3 4 Total Favor 58 42 75 65 Total Oppose 36 51 22 30

Q16. As you may know, the Tea Party movement emerged in 2009 to protest the federal government's stimulus package. They staged a series of protests and rallies across the US. Participants are opposed to increased tax and large-scale government spending. To what extent, if at all, do you personally identify with the ideals of the Tea Party movement?

All adults Democrats Republicans Independents I identify with them strongly 22 7 41 8 I identify with them 11 7 17 5 I identify with them a little 22 22 23 46 I do not identify with them at all 33 51 12 42 Don’t know / Refused 12 13 7 0 Identify with them at all (Top3Box) 55 37 81 58