HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™

Hurricane Iselle Information from CPHC Advisory 25, 5:00 AM HST Wednesday August 6, 2014 is weakening as it tracks towards the main . On the forecast track Iselle’s outer winds may reach the easternmost Hawaiian Islands by Thursday afternoon.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC)

Max Sustained Wind 85 mph Position Relative to 720 miles ESE of Speed: (category 1) Land: Hilo Thu Aug 7 around 8 PM Est. Time & Region: HST on Hawaii’s Big Island Min Central Pressure: 985 mb Coordinates: 17.0 N, 144.5 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 40 mph or higher (tropical 140 miles Bearing/Speed: WNW or 285 degrees at 15 mph Winds Extent: Speed: storm strength) Forecast Summary  The current Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) forecast map (below left) shows Iselle making landfall Thursday evening around 8PM HST on Hawaii’s Big Island at tropical storm strength.  The windfield map (below right), based on the CPHC track forecast, shows Iselle bringing tropical storm strength winds to much of the Hawaiian Islands. But as there is uncertainty in Iselle’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the map in pale gray.  Tropical storm conditions are possible on the Big Island of Hawaii on Thursday. These adverse weather conditions may spread to and Thursday night or Friday.  Swells generated by Iselle are expected to reach the main Hawaiian islands today, possibly becoming damaging along some coastlines starting late tonight or Thursday.  Heavy rains associated with Iselle are expected to reach the Big Island Thursday and spread to the remainder of the state Thursday night and Friday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Forecast Track for Hurricane Iselle Forecast Windfield for Hurricane Iselle (Central Pacific Hurricane Center) (Based on CPHC at 00:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp.

! NH C track ÏS Trop Stor m NHC ! Ï1 Ca t 1 CAT_ID TD !2 Ï Ca t 2 TS Tropic of Cancer Tropic of Cancer Ca t 1 Ca t 2 Ca t 3 Ca t 4 Ca t 5 08-09 All Fcst Tracks 08-08

08-07

08-06

0250 500 1,000 Miles

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A tropical storm watch – meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours – is in effect for Hawaii’s Big Island,

Maui, , and Oahu.

Hurricane Julio May Pass North of Hawaii Forecast Track for Hurricane Julio Forecast Windfield for Hurricane Julio (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 00:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp.

! NHC track ÏS Trop Storm NHC ! Ï1 Ca t 1 CAT_ID TD !2 Ï Ca t 2 TS Ca t 1 Ca t 2 TropicTropic ofof CancerCancer Ca t 3 08-10 Ca t 4 Ca t 5 All Fcst Tracks US 08-09 08-08 08-07

08-06

0250 500 1,000 Miles

Julio Forecast Summary

 The current National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast map (above left) shows Julio passing to the north of Hawaii at tropical storm

strength.

 The windfield map (above right), based on the NHC track forecast, shows Julio’s winds missing the Hawaiian Islands. But as there is

uncertainty in Julio’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the map in pale gray.

NHC Estimates of New Eastern Pacific Formation

National Hurricane Center

Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on August 6, 2014 The map at right shows the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone formation potential over the next 5 days in the Eastern Pacific. There is a 20% chance of formation in the next 5 days for the region indicated with a yellow X south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.

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