Lebanese The 100 best Arab defence independence Arab novels anniversary Pages 6,12 Page 22 Page 3

UK £2 Issue 183, Year 4 November 25, 2018 EU €2.50 www.thearabweekly.com Iraq seeks better ties with neighbours amid US-Iran crossfire

Mamoon Alabbasi Iraq, including by capturing gas from the country’s oil fields and upgrading its shoddy power net- London work,” reported the Wall Street Journal. raq is seeking to improve re- “The US also has asked Iran’s lations with regional states rival Saudi Arabia to invest in that are at odds with each power and other infrastructure I other, in a balancing act com- in southern Iraq,” said the paper, plicated by conflicting pressures citing an unnamed US official. from Washington and Tehran. The Iranians, meanwhile, are Baghdad is caught in the cross- talking about boosting trade with fire of US pressures to abide by Iraq. “Through bilateral efforts, sanctions against Iran at the we can raise this figure [of $12 same time it faces relentless at- billion for bilateral trade] to $20 tempts by Tehran to influence billion in the near future,” Presi- Showdown. Tunisian protesters chant slogans during a general strike in Tunis, on November 22. (AFP) Iraqi politics. dent Hassan Rohani said on No- Iraqi President Barham Salih vember 17 after meeting with the stressed that his recent tour to Iraqi president. Kuwait, the United Arab Emir- Iranian Supreme Leader Aya- ates, Jordan, Iran and Saudi tollah Ali Khamenei called on Tunisia’s strikes reflect Arabia was aimed at improving Iraq to “strongly resist” gov- ties with Iraq’s neighbours and ernments that “have a strong avoiding being drawn into re- grudge” towards Iran. gional conflicts. Nevertheless, it appears that policy deadlock, need “I made the point that Iraq’s Baghdad does not always find its prospect for success is real, but interest in “resisting” US pres- remains precarious, so it should sures despite the influence that not be burdened with further Iran wields on Iraqi politicians. for new social contract tensions and escalations in the Iraq announced that it would neighbourhood… Iraq has been stop exporting oil from Kirkuk the domain for regional power to Iran and instead resume the ► A new nationwide strike is expected to affect all struggles — the rivalry over Iraq flow of crude through a pipeline and within Iraq among regional to Turkey. government services and state companies on January 17. and global actors have sustained Iraq has also sought to pay Iran and deepened (the) Iraqi crisis,” for its gas imports in Iraqi di- said Salih on November 22. nars, as Washington opposed the Lamine Ghanmi wage bill under control. the most benefits for its members.” “We are emphatic about fully use by Iraq of US dollars in such In 2016, the IMF granted the Others, however, see the potential developing our relations with our transactions. Baghdad’s offer North African country a $2.72 billion political draw of the unions. “We Arab and Gulf neighbours. Our was rejected by Tehran, which Tunis loan over four years against a pledge must recognise that no other politi- relation with Iran is also impor- suggested dealing in euros in- to carry out needed reforms. cal party in Tunisia can master the tant… It is in our national interest stead. unisia finds itself at a turn- Financial experts say satisfying UGTT’s strength and organisation,” to promote good relations with Iraq has sought to improve ties ing point as trade unions are the demands for public service pay said political writer Sarra Hlaoui. Iran and alike with our northern with Qatar as high-level officials ratcheting up their pressure rises would have widened their pro- Many Tunisians lump the UGTT in neighbour, Turkey, which is un- exchanged visits in November. T on the government through portion of the country’s gross do- with discredited elites in the coun- deniably an important economic According to Iraqi media re- successive strikes aimed at but- mestic product, expected at 15.5% try who are seen as part of the prob- geopolitical actor.” ports, Qatar, which is currently tressing their demands for public this year. lem and not the solution. embroiled in a dispute with service wage increases. Adding to the uncertainty, lead- “The political parties and the Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain A new nationwide strike is expect- ers of the Tunisian General Labour UGTT are responsible for the crisis,” A recent survey found and Egypt over ties to Islamic ex- ed to affect all government services Union (UGTT) have now vowed said economist and former Finance that the percentage of tremists and Iran, has asked Iraq and state companies on January 17. to press the wage issue in the next Minister Houcine Dimassi. “Parties Iraqi Shias who have to adhere to a new alliance that The country’s 673,000 civil serv- elections and join the fractious po- and the UGTT are driving the coun- favourable attitudes would include, besides Qatar and ants observed an earlier strike on litical fray. try towards its ruin.” towards Iran has Iraq, three other neighbouring November 22, the first of its scope in UGTT’s leader, Noureddine Ta- The latest strike has also brought countries: Iran, Syria and Turkey. years, to protest the government’s boubi, told a crowd of supporters to a head a process sparked by the decreased from 88% in Officials in Doha and Baghdad rejection of pay hikes. gathered outside the parliament on cancellation of the old social con- 2015 to 47% in 2018. have denied the reports and said Several governments have come November 22 that the next legisla- tract that had prevailed in Tunisia the Iraqi and Qatari sides have in- and gone in Tunisia during the last tive and presidential elections “are since independence. At the same Salih’s remarks echoed recent stead discussed the reconstruc- eight years without managing to pull of concern” to the unions. time, it has highlighted the need comments by Prime Minister tion efforts in areas of Iraq that off a much-needed economic recov- “With this huge popular support for a new social contract where the Adel Abdul-Mahdi, who said were destroyed during the war ery to match the country’s relatively we will reset the political compass freedom to strike and protest are “Iraq does not wish to become against the Islamic State (ISIS). successful democratic transition. of the country,” he said in reference matched by better economic pro- part of a struggle to which it is Despite the ongoing tensions Reluctance to introduce reforms to the UGTT’s possible alignment ductivity and greater initiative, es- not party,” in a reference to ten- between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, has brought the day of reckoning with anti-Islamist forces. pecially with the state becoming sions between the United States Iran-backed politicians in Iraq closer as the government cannot Parliament members from the increasingly unable to ensure previ- and Iran. view Riyadh and Doha — as well continue its big spending policies leftist Popular Front and secularist ous entitlements. Iraq is already under pressure as Ankara — with suspicion, ac- and hiring of unemployed gradu- Nidaa Tounes parties joined Tabou- A few days before the November from both Washington and Teh- cusing the three Sunni states of ates in large numbers in the public bi as he addressed the crowd while public service strike, a number of lo- ran. harbouring a common anti-Iran/ service without increasing budget Islamist MPs and their allies in a po- cal business federations announced US President Donald Trump Shia agenda. deficits and soaring debt. litical coalition of secularists back- they would not be paying their elec- has vowed to impose the “tough- These same politicians are Social and political instability ing Chahed stayed away. The moves tricity bills to the public utility com- est ever” sanctions against Iran however increasingly challenged have contributed to economic stag- draw a demarcation line of the po- pany because such bills eat away too and he is pushing for Iraqi com- at home as pro-Iran stances are nation and a productivity decline, litical divide ahead of the elections much of their margin of profit. pliance. clearly losing appeal in the coun- sparking high inflation and de- next year. “Tunisia needs a new social con- Although the US has granted try, even in Shia constituencies. mands for wage hikes. Analysts said Taboubi’s an- tract between all the sides to pro- Iraq a 45-day exemption from A recent survey found that the In a break from previous govern- nouncement of electoral ambitions duction but the current political the sanctions on Iran, on which percentage of Iraqi Shias who ments that tried to meet the trade has been short in detail and will be juncture is not appropriate for that, Baghdad relies heavily for natu- have favourable attitudes to- unions’ demands for wage hikes to further clarified after negotiations as we are in an election year where ral gas imports, Washington is wards Iran decreased from 88% ensure social stability, Prime Min- with the political actors. conflicts and divisions worsen,” said pressuring Baghdad to find alter- in 2015 to 47% in 2018. ister Youssef Chahed turned them Political writer Marouen Achouri influential political columnist Zied natives to Iranian supplies. down. Chahed chose to preserve cautioned that the UGTT could lose Krichen. “US energy companies are Mamoon Alabbasi is Deputy key understandings with the In- its role as a “factor of stability” and pitching Iraq on ways to meet Managing Editor and Online ternational Monetary Fund (IMF) expose itself to “the danger of be- Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Weekly its own energy needs. In recent Editor of The Arab Weekly. over loan-related conditions, which coming another political party in correspondent in Tunis. months, several have signed include keeping the public service disguise whose main aim is to grab P9 deals or made proposals to help P2,15-16 2 November 25, 2018 Cover Story Iraq Saudi Arabia’s pragmatic new approach to Iraq is working

Arab environment. Saudi King Tom Regan Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud (R) meets with ere’s a success story Iraq’s of sorts for Saudi Ara- President bia’s foreign policy Barham Salih goals for this year: in Riyadh, on increasing rapproche- November 18. ment with Iraq. A (Iraqi Presidency) Hnew analysis written for the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington by Chatham House researcher Renad Mansour argues that “pragmatic diplomacy” is working. After 25 years of no meaningful relations with Iraq, Mansour writes, Saudi Arabia has adopted a more diplomatic ap- proach than any of its other bold foreign policy moves, which have produced mixed results. Mansour said Iran’s failures in Iraq are an important factor in creating the conditions for Saudi Arabia to try this new approach. In a phone interview with The Arab Weekly, Mansour expanded on that point. “In 2014, with the rise of ISIS and the kind of collapse of the Iraqi state in many parts, this Iranian project is itself failing. This to become major stakeholders in you can’t have a state that’s sus- Politically, Saudi Arabia must pro- was, to the Saudis, the first time re- the Iraqi political system. And even ceptible to Salafi jihadists captur- ceed cautiously, Mansour said. ally that they found a new channel, though the Saudis backed sectarian ing it. So 2014 was a huge disaster. “The biggest danger for Saudi an avenue, but what (was) required Shia politician Ayad Allawi in 2010, Coupled with that was in 2015 Arabia is acting itself too aggres- was making some alliances, chang- he failed to overcome Iranian ma- this protest movement kicks off in sively or being too ambitious off ing their approach.” noeuvring, which led to united Shia Basra, and it continues every year. “ the bat. And then disenfranchising Saudi Arabia has pursued this parties (helped by Kurdish endorse- Mansour adds that the protest that little pocket of attention that more pragmatic approach in Iraq ment) forming the government. movement on the ground “diverts it’s currently getting, right. So for because, as Mansour said, “it’s an But when Nuri al-Maliki was re- its focus away from the Americans, example, there was this talk that exception, where what you have in placed by Haider al-Abadi as Iraq’s who aren’t really calling the shots Mohammed bin Salman would go to Iraq is the political dynamics lining prime minister in 2014, the political anymore, and towards the Iranians, Basra. And a lot of Iraqi Shias aren’t up with what Saudi Arabia wanted calculus for Saudi Arabia started who are calling the shots, who are ready for that.” to see.” to change. One of Abadi’s main powerful.” The consequences for Many Iraqis are still suspicious Saudi Arabia’s main goal in Iraq missions was to loosen Iranian Iran start to become clear. “That of Saudi Arabia, particularly of the has always been to curb Iranian influence over the Iraqi govern- dynamic emerges out of the protest role it played in suppressing Shias influence. But after Saddam Hus- ment and to reach out to the United movement, where you begin hear- in Bahrain. Iranian politicians such sein invaded Kuwait in 1990, Saudi States and its allies in the region, ing people saying ‘Iran, out, out,’ as Maliki want no part of the Saudis Arabia cut off diplomatic relations. including Saudi Arabia. That year basically ‘we no longer want Iran in and use every chance they get to When Saddam was toppled — after saw Saudi Arabia return to engage- here.’ “ knock them, such as the recent the second Iraq war of 2003 — Saudi ment with Iraq, and in 2015 Riyadh Mansour writes in his analysis global response to the killing of Arabia failed to take advantage of appointed its first ambassador to that if Saudi Arabia is to build on journalist Jamal Khashoggi. the situation. Instead, it allowed Baghdad in over two decades. this new approach, it needs to do The kingdom needs to proceed Iran to gain the upper hand, despite For years, the Americans were so in two ways, economically and very carefully if it doesn’t want to pleas from the United States and seen as the hated occupiers in Iraq. politically. follow in the footsteps of the Ameri- other allies for Riyadh to re-engage When the Americans moved out, “Saudi Arabia obviously was a cans and now the Iranians and with Baghdad. however, the Iranians moved in and key player in the Kuwait recon- become the next external power Between 2003 and 2015, Saudi became the largest single external struction conference,” he said. that triggers protests. Arabia’s policy was to back major power in Iraq. Over the years, Iraqi “Saudi companies are looking at “When it comes to how much Sunni groups and politicians in patience with Iran grew thin, par- ways in which they can invest in of a ripple you want to make or a Iraq, but this had little actual ef- ticularly with respect to the Islamic electricity in Basra for example or splash, it makes more sense at the fect on Riyadh’s influence in the State (ISIS). elsewhere where Iran is threatening moment for Saudi Arabia to kind country. Those Sunni groups failed “I think something that’s often to leave or where sanctions could of focus on this kind of bottom-up misunderstood is how big of a hurt Iran, even though Iraq has a approach, where you slowly begin problem ISIS was for Iran,” Mansour waiver. So these are the different to build trust and build connections said. “There is this assumption that ways that they’re basically trying to and build relations with different Iran’s failures in Iraq are an Iran wants to completely destroy build better relations and connec- powers,” Mansour said. important factor in creating the Iraq, but it is not true. Iran doesn’t tions and it’s much easier to go with want a failed state on its border, money because there’s no ideology Tom Regan is a regular contributor conditions for Saudi Arabia to try Iran wants a weak fledgling state, when it comes to money than if you to The Arab Weekly and a this new approach. sure, not a very strong state. But have to talk politics as such.” columnist at factsandopinion.com. Qatar is trying to embroil Iraq in a foolish conundrum

Tehran is apparently of the to the changes in the balance of vague diplomatic expressions opinion that this five-party coali- power in the region. about his country “being ready tion would allow it to continue Samarraei said Qatar has chosen to open all types of horizons of Bahira al-Shikhli backing the activities of its militias to ally itself with Iran and to spend cooperation and to strengthen the in the region. The plan is to have its money to weaken the effects historically friendly ties with the the militias divert US attention of economic sanctions. Qatar puts Iraqi government and people.” In atar has proposed to through terrorist activities and itself in grave jeopardy even if its other words, nothing but hollow Iraq the creation of would spare Iran any direct impli- goal is to harm Saudi Arabia. promises. a five-party alliance cation. In addition to that, Iran- The Iraqis cannot forget that Qa- Qatar is involved in shady deals that would include backed militias would continue tar conspired against their country at the expense of Iraq. Official both countries along to create chaos in the region with by allowing the Americans to use statistics indicate that more than Q with Iran, Syria and Qatari assistance. its territory to launch air attacks 40,000 barrels of crude oil are Turkey, media reports claim. The Iraqi political analyst Nizar on them. Qatar is once again con- smuggled through Basra prov- alliance would be based on shared al-Samarraei said Qatar is slowly spiring against Iraq by dragging it ince every day towards Iran and political and economic interests of pushing Turkish President Recep into a direct confrontation with Qatar. It is a daily occurrence to the concerned countries. Tayyip Erdogan towards a con- the Americans. It is deliberately see convoys of hundreds of tanker Qatari Deputy Prime Minister frontation with Arab countries luring the Iraqi government into trucks loaded with crude oil head and Minister of Foreign Affairs through the building of a special an alliance that simply defies the towards seaports and other cross- Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrah- relationship with Iran. United States’ will. The United ing points with Iran under the man bin Jassim al-Thani’s visit to That scenario would be cata- States has made clear that it will protection of carloads of gunmen. Iraq on November 7 is seen within strophic for Turkey and the region take severe measures against any It is naive to assume that Qatar, the context of manoeuvres to because once Tehran is finished country that stands with Iran. which conspired against Iraq and counter the international political with its Arab targets, it would turn Mohammed al-Halbousi, ganged up with Iran to steal its oil siege of Tehran or at least mini- on Turkey. In that case, history speaker of the Iraqi Council of and contribute to the destruction mise its effects. will be repeating itself. Turkey’s Representatives, invited Qatar of its economy, could one day con- Sultan Selim I will have to rise to participate in the reconstruc- tribute to its reconstruction. There from his tomb and square off tion of Iraq and invest in the Iraqi is no denying that Qatar is seeking Qatar is once again conspiring with Shah Ismail al-Safawi in Iraq economy. He stressed that the to embroil Iraq in the greatest folly against Iraq by dragging it into a once again. By that time, interna- parliament would seek to provide in history by enticing it to join an tional circumstances would have the proper environment for a safe anti-US coalition. direct confrontation with the changed and Iran would enjoy investment. All we heard in return Americans. greater international support due from the Qatari minister were Bahira al-Shikhli is an Iraqi writer. November 25, 2018 3 Spotlight Arab Defence Saudi defence modernisation focuses on naval prowess

Sabahat Khan

Dubai

audi Arabia’s efforts at mod- ernising the Royal Saudi Navy fall under a programme S aptly named the Saudi Naval Expansion Programme II — SNEP II. As the name suggests, Riyadh is not simply looking to modernise its fleet by replacing vessels nearing the end of their lifespan but aims to significantly expand its naval capa- bilities. SNEP II is a defence vertical of Vision 2030, a wide-ranging pro- gramme to place Saudi Arabia among the world’s leading coun- tries. As the Middle East’s centre of gravity and one of the world’s largest oil producers, Saudi Arabia’s maritime security agenda repre- sents a core priority for its leader- ship. The regional security environ- ment increasingly emphasises the importance of naval power. Navies have a front-line role in securing sea lines of communication to en- sure freedom of navigation at sea, protecting exclusive economic zones and offshore assets. The navy also plays a crucial role in providing warning and engagement capabili- ties against air and missile attacks, for example. The maritime industry promises one of the most important oppor- Maritime ambitions. Saudi warships are seen sailing near the eastern coast of the country. (Reuters) tunities for Riyadh in localising as much as half of its annual defence naval prowess much further than it hawk helicopters it had ordered for Saudi Arabia. partners around Europe, Asia and expenditures. The Royal Saudi Na- ever has. Intensifying international from US manufacturer Sikorsky Air- These developments reflect a the Middle East to assume greater vy’s acquisition programmes can competition in the Red Sea on its craft for almost $2 billion in 2015. broader Saudi effort. Riyadh has security roles is driven by a reali- cultivate and support shipbuilding western flank, Yemen’s implosion The Seahawk is an advanced multi- demonstrated serious interest in sation in the United States that the industries as well as naval support and the Horn of Africa’s instability mission aircraft considered the best recent years to acquire submarines proliferation of threats leaves lit- services, such as the maintenance, are significant trends that are re- in its class and which no other Arab from Germany and remains in close tle other option but to pursue en- repair and overhaul of military and defining Riyadh’s maritime threat navy has in its inventory. discussions with France — its other hanced “burden-sharing” to ensure commercial vessels, creating thou- landscape beyond the Arabian Gulf. traditional naval systems supplier international security. sands of skilled jobs. On November 7, Saudi Arabia The coming decade will see — about advancing capabilities. The Saudi Arabia had ostensibly SNEP II focuses attention on the announced a $2.5 billion deal with Riyadh bolster its military last few years saw French company reached the same conclusion long Royal Saudi Navy’s Eastern Fleet, Spanish-shipbuilder Navantia for capabilities to reimpose DCNS complete a major upgrade before Washington incorporated which last underwent a major mod- five Avante 2200 corvettes to be de- and technology refresh of Saudi it into stated policy goals. As the ernisation programme in the 1980s livered by 2022. Saudi Arabian Mili- naval dominance across its Arabia’s flagship Al Riyadh-class world’s leading per capita spender and 1990s. It is driven in large part tary Industries said its joint venture troubled neighbourhood. frigates. on defence, Saudi Arabia has never by a need to counter Iranian naval with Navantia includes localising Saudi Arabia’s Seahawks could The Saudi Interior Ministry has taken its security needs lightly. The power, which focuses on an ability up to 60% of the work. be deployed on four Multi-Mission been receiving deliveries for a con- coming decade will see Riyadh bol- to blockade critical maritime choke The Avante 2200, which is large Surface Combatant (MMSC) ships tract estimated at nearly $2 billion ster its military capabilities to re- points, such as the Strait of Hor- enough to be considered a light that Riyadh is acquiring. The MMSC with German shipyard Lurssen that impose naval dominance across its muz. frigate and features a stealth design is the most advanced littoral com- was concluded in 2014 for nearly troubled neighbourhood. However, as the world’s largest oil and a host of other new technology, bat ships built and, in July, the US 150 patrol boats. They included two exporter, with more than 2,500km will buttress the Saudi navy’s agil- government awarded a $450 mil- 60m large patrolling boats, 20 40m Sabahat Khan is based in Dubai of coastline and surrounded by ity and firepower at sea. lion contract to Lockheed Martin patrolling craft, 80 15m fast patrol and maintains a cross-disciplinary persistent instability, Saudi Arabia Days earlier, the Royal Saudi to begin designing and planning for boats and 20 landing craft. focus in international security, is looking at capabilities to project Navy received the first of ten Sea- construction of four MMSC ships Washington’s growing calls for its defence policy and strategic issues. Defence expo reflects Egypt’s armament strategies

Amr Emam arms at a small scale in the 1960s. bition (EDEX), would give Egypt an Cairo has expanded this industry important opportunity to showcase Cairo over the past few years, manu- its defence products. EDEX bills facturing a wide range of military itself as Egypt’s first tri-service de- gypt will organise its first- equipment, including some under fence expo, covering air, land and ever defence exhibition on licences from major international sea. December 3. firms. “It will also give other Arab states E The first of its kind in In September, an army-affiliated the chance to showcase the prod- north and central Africa, the exhi- shipyard in the northern coastal ucts they manufacture,” al-Assar bition will give hundreds of arms city of Alexandria launched the first said. manufacturers from around the domestically made Gowind cor- The Arab Organisation for Indus- world the opportunity to share ide- vette warship under licence from trialisation’s factories and show- as, discuss industry developments, France’s Naval Group. rooms are turning into an impor- conduct business, develop partner- This was the latest defence equip- tant stop in the itinerary of most France and Russia, two helicopter sula and other parts of Egypt. ships and network for future coop- ment Egypt has sought to produce African officials visiting Cairo. carriers from France, two subma- Militants affiliated with the Is- eration. as it looks to become increasingly Al-Assar, a former member of rines from Germany and hundreds lamic State (ISIS), some hiding in About 316 defence manufactur- self-reliant in terms of arms sup- Egypt’s Supreme Council of the of millions of dollars’ worth of rock- mountainous areas in central Sinai, ers from 41 countries are set to par- plies, particularly ammunition. Armed Forces, has met with dozens ets from the United States. staged deadly attacks against army ticipate in the expo. Nineteen coun- Defence products made at dozens of foreign officials and diplomats in The head of the Egyptian Arma- troops and policemen, increasing tries will also host special booths at of factories within the army-owned his bid to expand joint military pro- ment Authority, Tarek Saad Zaghlol, the human cost of Egypt’s battle the event, which will be held at a Arab Organisation for Industrialisa- duction with other countries. said he expected huge deals and against terrorism. major fairground on the outskirts tion include small calibre and heavy Egypt spends billions of dol- partnerships to be hammered out To make up for the loss of US of Cairo. ammunition, mortars, mines, gre- lars on arms and defence equip- during EDEX. arms, Egypt’s military strategists The expo, analysts said, nades and other explosives. ment every year, with that figure “Egypt is diversifying its arms had to look for other suppliers, in- underscores Cairo’s desire to pro- The products made also include believed to have increased signifi- supplies and looks forward to sign- cluding European countries, Russia mote itself as a rising arms manu- antitank rockets, rocket mortars, cantly since 2014 when Egyptian ing a variety of arms contracts with and China. facturer in the Arab and African radars, rifles, pistols, smoke and President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi came different arms suppliers at the Analysts said such diversifica- regions. pyrotechnic devices, machine guns, to power with a plan to modernise expo,” he said. tion has given Egypt greater control “This is a very good opportunity training aircraft, armoured vehicles and reform the country’s armed Egypt’s need to diversify arms over its future military strategies. for Egypt to showcase its defence and armoured personnel carriers. forces. According to the Stockholm supplies intensified following the “This diversification is crucial if products,” said Mahmoud Khalaf, Cairo’s goal is to turn military in- International Peace Research In- ouster of Islamist President Mu- we will ensure an uninterrupted a lecturer at Nasser Military Acad- dustrialisation into a new national stitute, Egypt’s total international hammad Morsi in a military-backed supply of the arms we need at all emy, the academic arm of the revenue stream. arms transfers averaged $751 mil- popular uprising in mid-2013. times,” said retired army General Egyptian military. “The exhibi- The Ministry of Military Produc- lion per year between 1990 and The United States, one of Egypt’s Hossam Suweillam. “It also pre- tion comes at a time Egypt looks tion is at the heart of this pursuit. 2013 and $1.475 billion since 2014, main arms suppliers, viewed Mor- vents suppliers from imposing their forward to enhancing its defence On November 12, Military Produc- putting Egypt among the top five si’s ouster negatively and withheld political or military will on us.” manufacturing and also expanding tion Minister Mohamed al-Assar defence importers worldwide. military aid to Egypt at a time when its partnerships.” said the forthcoming exhibition, of- Recent military deals have in- it faced the persistent threat of Is- Amr Emam is an Egyptian reporter Egypt started manufacturing ficially called Egypt Defence Exhi- cluded dozens of fighter jets from lamist militancy in the Sinai Penin- based in Cairo. 4 November 25, 2018 News & Analysis The Khashoggi Case Trump reaffirms position of US as ‘steadfast partner of Saudi Arabia’ Thomas Frank Conflicting pressures. US President Washington Donald Trump (R) and S President Donald Trump US Secretary gave his strongest endorse- of State Mike ment of Saudi Crown Prince Pompeo listen U Mohammed bin Salman bin during a cabinet Abdulaziz since the death of journal- meeting at the ist Jamal Khashoggi, rejecting re- White House in ports that the US Central Intelligence Washington. Agency concluded the crown prince (Reuters) ordered the killing and calling Saudi Arabia “a steadfast partner.” Trump’s remarks in recent days, echoed by leaders of the US Defence and State departments, signal that the United States is unlikely to im- pose additional sanctions on Saudi officials over the killing in early Oc- tober of Khashoggi, a US-based jour- nalist, inside the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul. But Trump’s defence of Crown Prince Mohammed brought instant criticism from members of the US Congress, threats to halt arms sales to Saudi Arabia and a demand by two leading US senators that the Trump administration investigate whether the crown prince had any role in Khashoggi’s killing. Speaking to journalists on Novem- ber 22 at his retreat in Florida, Trump disputed that the CIA had blamed the actions of any individuals were human rights stance,” Mattis said. efit Russia and China, which would from Connecticut and member of the crown prince and said that the not important. “Our relationship is “Nor are we going to apologise for be “very happy to acquire all of this the Senate Foreign Relations Com- agency’s leaders “have feelings cer- with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,” working with Saudi Arabia when it’s newfound business. It would be a mittee, said on Twitter: “When it tain ways.” Trump said in his statement. “They necessary for the good of innocent wonderful gift to them directly from comes to the murder of Khashoggi, “I hate the crime, I hate the cov- have been a great ally in our very im- people who are in trouble.” the United States!” the [Trump] administration appears er-up,” Trump said of the murder, portant fight against Iran.” Trump noted that the United Trump said the United States unlikely to take decisive action, so which Saudi Arabia has blamed on a Shortly after Trump released his States has imposed sanctions on 17 needed a “counterbalance” to Iran, it’s up to Congress to determine the rogue Saudi kidnapping team. “I will statement, US Secretary of State Saudis suspected of involvement which he called a “terrorist nation.” consequences.” tell you this: The crown prince hates Mike Pompeo underscored the mes- in the death of Khashoggi, a critic “If we abandon Saudi Arabia, it Writing on Twitter shortly after it more than I do, and they have ve- sage at a news conference. “The of the royal family, and pointed to would be a terrible mistake,” Trump Trump’s statement, Joel Simon, ex- hemently denied it.” United States will continue to have hundreds of billions of Saudi dollars said. ecutive director of the Committee to He said the United States would a relationship with the Kingdom of coming to the United States through Members of the Democratic Party Protect Journalists, said Trump “has remain “a steadfast partner of Saudi Saudi Arabia. They are an important investments and arms purchases. said Trump’s defence of the crown just asserted that if you do enough Arabia to ensure the interests of our partner of ours,” Pompeo said. “This “Do people really want me to give prince could backfire by leading the business with the US, you are free to country, Israel and all other partners is a long, historic commitment and up hundreds of thousands of jobs?” US Congress to block arms sales to murder journalists. That’s an appall- in the region” in a statement on No- one that is absolutely vital to Amer- Trump told reporters November Saudi Arabia. US Senator Dianne ing message to send to Saudi Arabia vember 20. ica’s national security.” 23. “And frankly, if we went by this Feinstein, an influential Democrat and the world.” The New York-based Trump acknowledged uncer- And on November 21, US Defence standard, we wouldn’t be able to from California, said on Twitter that committee promotes media freedom tainty about whether Crown Prince Secretary James Mattis defended have anybody as an ally.” she would “vote against any future around the world. Mohammed or Saudi King Salman the “strategic relationship” between Trump insisted that “foolishly arms sales and appropriation to Sau- bin Abdulaziz Al Saud had a role in the United States and Saudi Arabia. cancelling these contracts” worth di Arabia.” Thomas Frank is an Arab Weekly Khashoggi’s death but suggested “We’re not going to apologise for our billions of dollars would only ben- Senator Chris Murphy, a Democrat correspondent in Washington. Trump’s exoneration of Saudi crown prince is blow for Turkey

Thomas Seibert accused Crown Prince Mohammed would be made public soon. agencies got their hands on audio ligation to investigate the death of of ordering Khashoggi’s death. The leaks are intended to buttress recordings from within the Saudi the journalist, while cracking down Trump’s statement on November Ankara’s attempts at settling scores consulate, leading to speculation on free speech and journalists in Istanbul 20 made it clear that his administra- not just with the Saudi monarchy that Turkey might have bugged the Turkey itself. tion will not back punitive meas- but also with the United Arab Emir- diplomatic compound and maybe Roland Popp, a security analyst in he confirmation by US ures against the prince and will not ates and Egypt over the Khashoggi other foreign missions as well. Zurich focusing on Middle Eastern President Donald Trump support calls to strip him of his role case. Speaking to the BBC’s Turkish ser- affairs, said an international inves- that Washington will not as future king, something Ankara “The conversations among the vice, Turkish Defence Minister Hu- tigation could become an unwel- T take action against Riyadh would like to see. The US president murderers, their conversations lusi Akar denied the charge, but in- come precedent, given the record following the killing of dissident also mentioned that unnamed rep- with Riyadh after committing the sisted: “We do not reveal the source of Erdogan’s own country. journalist Jamal Khashoggi is a seri- resentatives of the Riyadh govern- murder, dialogues that will prove of the audio tapes.” “He might well continue on the ous blow for Turkey’s efforts to ad- ment had called Khashoggi a mem- the crown prince was the one who Another unanswered question is path of publicly shaming Saudi Ara- vance its own stances in a regional ber of the Muslim Brotherhood. directly gave the order, perhaps the why Turkish officials did not warn bia in the context of Turkish-Saudi competition with Saudi Arabia. But The reference to the Brotherhood United Arab Emirates and Egyptian Khashoggi of a possible Saudi plot. tensions and competition for the Ankara is not giving up just yet. touches on a key part of the regional intelligence’s role in the incident, Erdogan has said the suspected leadership role of the Sunnis,” Popp The government of Turkish Presi- rivalry between Ankara and Ri- and as a matter of fact, information Saudi killing squad arrived in Tur- said. dent Recep Tayyip Erdogan is look- yadh. Turkey has been supporting on Israeli intelligence’s ‘expertise’ key several days before Khashoggi’s Another possible course of action ing at options that are said to range the Brotherhood and hosting some or on the US leg of the murder may death. The Hurriyet newspaper re- that could be pursued by the Turk- from keeping up the public pressure of its leaders, while Saudi Arabia be revealed,” Ibrahim Karagul, edi- ported that the conspirators can be ish president would be to let “the on Riyadh to quietly burying the regards the group as a dangerous tor of the Yeni Safak daily, wrote a heard fine-tuning their plan to kill issue disappear from headlines in issue in return for political conces- organisation implicated in terrorist day before Trump’s statement. the journalist on an audio file re- exchange for some Saudi conces- sions. activities. The Saudi crown prince Karagul predicted the publi- corded 15 minutes before Khashog- sions, most likely in the sphere of called Turkey a member of a “trian- cation of the audio would make gi entered the consulate. the Qatar embargo,” Popp added in gle of evil” along with Iran and Is- Crown Prince Mohammed’s posi- Turkey also indicated that it is reference to the dispute between Ankara faces a number of lamist groups earlier this year. tion untenable and might also af- redoubling its efforts to interna- Saudi Arabia and Qatar. “Given potential complications Having failed to win over Trump fect Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed tionalise the Khashoggi case in a Trump’s determination to protect in its game of leaks about for its own position, Ankara could al-Nahyan, crown prince of Abu bid to exert more pressure on Saudi [Crown Prince Mohammed], the recordings. try and boost efforts in the US Con- Dhabi and a key ally of the Saudi Arabia, especially because attempts latter course seems more likely to gress to force the administration to crown prince. “The Saudi crown at provoking new sanctions on the me.” Ever since Khashoggi’s death at end support for Crown Prince Mo- prince won’t be able to worm his part of Trump have visibly failed. The continuing tensions between the hands of Saudi agents during a hammed and to enact legislation way out of this one; regardless Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Riyadh and Ankara might not pre- visit to the country’s consulate in introducing punitive US measures of the cover-up operations they Cavusoglu said Saudi Arabia’s co- vent Erdogan and Saudi Crown Istanbul on October 2, Ankara’s ap- against Riyadh. carry out, regardless of the nego- operation over the investigation Prince Mohammed from holding a proach has been led by the overall Part of that effort is Ankara’s con- tiations they attempt, saving this into the killing was not “at the de- face-to-face meeting on the side- aim of linking Crown Prince Mo- tinued attempts at influencing pub- person under these circumstances sired level.” He added that Turkey lines of the G20 summit in Argen- hammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz lic opinion. Towards that end, me- will be impossible,” Karagul wrote. would take formal steps to seek tina at the end of November. to the crime. The Erdogan govern- dia in Turkey have already started “What’s more, it will reach Moham- an international investigation if it “There could be” a meeting, ment has leaked investigation re- to publish excerpts of at least two med bin Zayed, too.” reaches an “impasse” with Riyadh. Turkish presidential spokes- sults to the media with the purpose alleged audio recordings that were Ankara faces a number of poten- Turkey’s strategy is not without man Ibrahim Kalin said, on of demonstrating that the killing created shortly before Khashoggi’s tial complications in its game of risks for the country’s own cred- November 22. had been ordered by the highest death and during the last minutes leaks about recordings, however. ibility and international standing. levels of the Saudi government. of his life. A prominent pro-govern- The government is refusing to say Erdogan critics have pointed out Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly Pro-government media have openly ment journalist said the audio files how Turkish law enforcement that Ankara says it has a moral ob- correspondent. November 25, 2018 5 News & Analysis Gulf Stockholm peace talks: A ‘first step’ towards ending Yemen war?

The Arab Weekly staff vened in Yemen, lending support to government forces battling the Hou- this. Three years later, the Houthis Abu Dhabi rule most of Yemen’s population, while the government in exile con- fter much speculation as trols a section of the country in the to whether peace talks be- south. tween Yemen’s warring Now, however, there appears to A parties would take place, be renewed hope for a settlement, US Defence Secretary James Mattis with Yemen’s warring parties giving confirmed that UN-led negotiations UN Special Envoy for Yemen Mar- Precarious task. UN Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths (C) upon his arrival at Sana’a were slated for early December in tin Griffiths “firm assurances” they International Airport, on November 21. (AFP) Stockholm, Sweden. are committed to working towards “It looks like very, very early in De- peace, he said on November 16. cember, up in Sweden we’ll see both Commenting on the improved any longer, or insist on travel or tiations in Sweden as “a first step on a November 21 report by the Inter- the Houthi rebel side and the UN- prospects for peace, Mattis on No- transport conditions that call into a long and as yet unforeseen path.” national Crisis Group, a non-profit recognised government,” Mattis told vember 21 said Saudi Arabia and the question good faith intentions,” State “Stockholm talks may not be organisation that monitors conflicts reporters on November 21. United Arab Emirates had halted Department spokeswoman Heather the last round of negotiations,” he throughout the world. their offensive near Yemen’s key port Nauert said in a statement. warned, “but we hope it would be a After more than three years of UAE Minister city of Hodeidah and “that despite While Saudi Arabia and the UAE basis for more serious talks from the fighting, Yemen’s economy is in cri- of Foreign Affairs some fighting, the front lines had not seem eager to exit what is being Houthis.” sis and three-quarters of its popula- Sheikh Abdullah bin changed in at least 72 hours,” Reuters seen as an increasingly costly con- The conflict in Yemen has been in tion, 22 million people, are in need of Zayed al-Nahyan reported. flict, they continue to harbour deep a stalemate since the Saudi-led coali- aid. Some 8.4 million people are on During the lull in violence, the UN mistrust towards the Houthis, which tion seized the southern port city of the brink of starvation, a number the “Stockholm talks may not be envoy travelled to the Yemeni capital have turned their back on two previ- Aden in 2015. While the coalition is United Nations warns will likely rise the last round of negotiations, of Sana’a, before visiting Hodeidah a ous peace talks. superior by air, the Houthis, embold- to 14 million. but we hope it would be a basis day later, on November 22. Last September, the Houthis failed ened by support from their Iranian David Beasley, executive director for more serious talks from the During the trip, he sought “to final- to show up to a final round of nego- backers, have effectively used guer- of the UN World Food Programme, Houthis.” ise the arrangements in the lead-up tiations after coalition forces aban- rilla warfare tactics to make gains. who travelled to Hodeidah on No- to the talks in Sweden and to revisit a doned an offensive on Hodeidah to Now, however, the Houthis are vember 11, told reporters that the Mattis’s announcement came amid UN supervisory role for the port and pursue peace talks. faced with a tough choice: withdraw United Nations was “prepared, if growing regional and international to draw attention to the continued The Saudi-led coalition has since from Hodeidah or fight a battle that necessary, if all parties desire” to efforts to bring an end to the more need for a pause in the fighting,” UN argued that wresting control of Ho- could have dire humanitarian conse- take over the operational capacity than three-year conflict, which has spokesman Stephane Dujarric said. deidah is the best way to deal with quences. of the Hodeidah port, which handles pitted pro-government forces backed The United States has expressed the Houthis, as it would cut off their “They [the Houthis] have a clear 70% of the country’s food imports by an Arab coalition of nine countries support for Griffiths’ biggest push main supply line and force them to choice between agreeing to a negoti- and aid supplies. against Iran-backed Houthi rebels, in two years to end the war, insist- adopt a softer stance in negotiations. ated exit from the port and joining a “We need to protect this port at all who helped oust Yemen’s democrati- ing that “the time for direct talks… UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs battle that would prove devastating costs to function at the highest ca- cally elected president in 2015. is now.” Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahy- to millions of people in territories pacity because if we don’t then peo- The Arab coalition soon inter- “All parties must not delay talks an realistically described the nego- currently under their control,” states ple are going to die,” he said. Viewpoint Yemen’s vicious circle must be broken

bove all else, we must restructure the camp of the legiti- welcome any positive mate government so that it can be Khairallah news coming from up to the importance of the event Khairallah Yemen. A potential and able to deal with any political humanitarian trag- solution that may be submitted by edy, greater than the the UN Secretary-General’s envoy oneA that the Yemenis have been for Yemen, Martin Griffiths, who experiencing for many years, must unfortunately does not seem to be avoided. The Yemenis have suf- know much about Yemen or about fered enough since 2011, when the the ambitions of the Houthis and of Muslim Brotherhood thought that it those who hide behind them. could highjack the popular uprising Experience has shown that it against the existing regime and use is hopeless to bet on the Houthis it to seize power. coming to their senses. All one has The Brotherhood failed to take to do to come to that conclusion is two things into consideration. The examine the speeches given by their Smoke and mirrors. A Houthi fighter holds a weapon as he looks first was the fact that the regime of leader, Abdelmalik al-Houthi, since at smoke rising from a building in Sana’a. (AP) former Yemeni President Ali Abdul- the takeover of Sana’a. They contain lah Saleh, who was assassinated by nothing substantial and are just ma- this, we’re not suggesting resuming university. All he needs is to learn the Houthis about a year ago, was noeuvres to buy time. The Houthis fighting in Hodeidah; on the contra- how to chant hollow slogans and not an easy morsel to swallow, and have nothing to offer Yemenis be- ry, it is an attempt to avoid further fight for the victory of Iran’s expan- the second was that the Houthis sides illusions, empty slogans and fighting. At the end of the day, if the sionist project in the region. and behind them Iran were waiting pompous rhetoric that cannot buy Houthis are allowed to stay in Ho- Is this what the UN envoy and in the wings for the right opportu- medicine, feed the hungry or build deidah, it will be the shortest way to the United States and Britain be- nity to lay their claws on Sana’a. a school or a hospital. The frighten- reach a political impasse. hind him really want to happen in And that’s exactly what happened ing thing is that the Houthis are To put it differently, if the Yemen? on September 21, 2014. completely unconcerned with the negotiations scheduled to take Perhaps he really wants to find a Today, the international com- precarious situation of the average place in Stockholm are limited to balanced political solution that will munity, led by the United States Yemeni citizen. the Houthis and the “legitimate” revive hope in Yemen. Again, the and Britain, is pressing for a near For all practical purposes, how- government, there will be no posi- point is not to eliminate the Hou- truce in Hodeidah. Then, we have ever, there is no escaping from in- tive results. It is imperative that the this. In fact, no one can eliminate the Houthis announcing that they cluding the Houthis in any political vicious circle in Yemen be broken. anyone in Yemen. What is more will stop firing rockets and sending process aimed at reaching some sort This can only be achieved by re- desirable than ever is finding a way drones “towards Saudi Arabia and of solution at some stage. But the moving the Houthis from Hodeidah to include the largest number of po- the UAE.” Houthis’ actions suggest they want and by restructuring the “legitima- litical forces in the north, south and Can we therefore say we have the to impose a formula that will even- cy” camp by expanding its base. It centre in any national dialogue or right conditions for a political solu- tually lead to the establishment of a does not make sense not to include negotiations for a political solution. What is more tion in Yemen? state of their own with Sana’a as its all the forces involved in confront- The only constant in Yemen is Logic and recent experience capital. ing the Houthis in the “legitimacy” that there can be no return to the desirable than ever is say that halting the attack on the How can we possibly allow the camp. old formula — that of one Yemen finding a way to strategic port of Hodeidah cannot people of Sana’a and their centu- If these two conditions are not controlled by Sana’a, or the centre be compared to halting the missile ries-old cultural heritage to fall to met, the Houthis will continue as it was called. The old Yemen include the largest attacks on Saudi Arabia. Let’s not the mercy of marauding cave dwell- to exercise their favourite hobby: we’re familiar with is now gone. number of political even talk about comparing it to ers that know only how to chant buying time in order to create new Perhaps the right formula for a new forces in the north, halting missile attacks on the UAE “Death to America, Death to Israel, conditions on the ground. It was Yemen is that of a federation or because it is doubtful that these Damn the Jews, Victory for Islam”? easy for them, for example, to as- confederation. But there is no hope south and centre in missiles can reach that far in the The UN envoy for Yemen will sassinate Saleh because they really of reaching such a formula if the any national dialogue first place. be making a major mistake if he don’t care about the lives and future vicious circle in not broken. What is certain is that there is continues to believe that a politi- of Yemeni youth. For them, a young or negotiations for a a need for the Houthis to come to cal solution can be found with the Yemeni is just a martyrdom project. Khairallah Khairallah is a Lebanese political solution. their senses. There is also a need to existing balance of power. By saying He doesn’t need to go to school or journalist. 6 November 25, 2018 Opinion

Editorial The paradoxes of education in the region othing better reflects the paradoxes of the Arab world than the inadequacies of its educational system. A recently published World Bank report highlights this reality. “Expecta- Ntions and Aspirations, A New Framework for Education in the Middle East and North Africa” lays out the limited socioeconomic dividends yielded by the huge investments made by most Arab countries in education since independence. There is no country in the Middle East and North Africa that does not pride itself on the allocation of substantial resources to universal enrolment of school-age children of both gen- ders, on educational reform and on fostering knowledge. Still, youth unemployment persists at a level higher than in all other regions of the world. “This is especially true for young women, who outnumber men at universities but have double the unemployment rate of their male peers,” points out the report. The region has still to reckon with the contra- diction between policies aimed at promoting gender equality, on the one hand, and social practices that tolerate biases towards women on the other. Education can play an effective role in the shaping of a new value system that promotes not just gender equality but all the other prerequi- sites of modernity, including tolerance and peaceful coexistence. The World Bank report notes that levels of intolerance in MENA are higher than in other regions of the world. Intolerance breeds violence and violence can only deprive the region of growth prospects as it discourages the outside Why does Netanyahu want a war? world from doing business there. Another major paradox is the enduring mis- Mohamad Kawas match between educational training and employ- ment. In many parts of the Arab world today, The mainstay of survival for Netanyahu and his right- earning a university diploma does not guarantee employment. In many instances, the better wing allies is fear of having to let go of power. educated the person, the less likely that he or she is hired. “MENA countries have become societies hen Israeli mounted by the Trump administra- But Netanyahu needs a war these in which there is little or no link between Prime Minis- tion against Iran provides Netan- days. He has removed the Gazan riot- education credentials and skills,” notes the ter Binyamin yahu with a historic opportunity ers from his path but the corruption World Bank report. Netanyahu felt to paralyse Tehran’s ambitions to charges hanging over him are threat- This is because diplomas do not mean univer- the first lashes of become a real existential threat for ening his survival. In his war speech, sity graduates possess the skills demanded by the marketplace. The already-bloated public sector is a storm loom- the “eternal Jewish state.” he made sure to mention his military probably the only place where diplomas are still a Wing over his government, he chose Analysts in Israel place Net- past so that he can join the ranks of primary criterion for remuneration and recruit- the path of war. Israel’s strong anyahu’s war speech in a tacti- the likes of David Ben-Gurion, Ehud ment regardless of real skill. man took a card out of his sleeve cal context aimed at saving his Barak, Levi Eshkol, Menachem Begin Fixing the flaws in the educational system that had never been seen before in government and avoiding the risk and Yitzhak Rabin, who all had at could be a good way to start addressing the Israel. In a speech that many com- of going to early elections. The some point managed the destiny of untenable paradoxes of the Arab region. mentators compared to Churchill’s tactic worked. Education Minister the Ministry of Defence. A stench of speech after he became Britain’s Naftali Bennett, who is also head Machiavellian political manoeuvring Tehran’s provocations prime minister during the second of the Jewish Home party, tried to is rising from Netanyahu’s words at ran’s brazen tactics in Europe are coming world war, Netanyahu announced blackmail Netanyahu by waving the Ministry of Defence. But then back to haunt it. In recent months, Tehran that Israel was going to war and a his resignation too if he doesn’t again, he may be expressing a press- has been suspected of attempting to carry great one, too, so great in fact that get appointed defence minister ing tendency among Israel’s ruling out terrorist plots in France and Denmark. Israel cannot afford to dissolve the to replace Lieberman. Of course, elite in favour of a calculated war On November 12, European Union foreign present government and prepare Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked, also that would bring order to a lot of the Iministers predictably showed signs of a more for early legislative elections. from Jewish Home, joined Bennett chaos inside Israel’s strategic security assertive shift of policy towards Iran. Netanyahu is the only one hold- and threatened to resign as well. maps. After being briefed by France and Denmark ing the helm in the country and the But Netanyahu knew how to cut Netanyahu realises that the ruler in about recent Iranian terror plots on their soil, EU only one who seems to hold the the grass from under their feet and Iran is pragmatic enough to reverse ministers voiced support for “targeted sanc- decision between peace and war. offered them the best card to with- its drive to reach the edges of what tions” against Tehran. After appointing himself minis- draw their resignation ultimatums. is possible and what is impossible. As Mahmud el-Shafey reports (Page 16), 150 ter of defence following Avigdor The mainstay of survival for That’s why Netanyahu is worried MEPs from six major political groups in the Lieberman’s resignation, Netan- Netanyahu and his right-wing allies that Washington and the world European Parliament, and representing 27 yahu visited the ministry and in- is fear of having to let go of power. might reach a new deal with Tehran countries, signed a joint statement protesting formed the military establishment Many previous political currents against the wishes of Trump, Mike the “new wave of terrorism” instigated by Iran. about a major war coming its way. that could be described as pro- Pompeo and John Bolton. Even if the The EU had been divided over the attitude to Lieberman had left the Netan- peace did not survive in Israel. The world were to negotiate and reach an be taken against Iran. Last March, it refused to yahu cabinet in protest against peace movement, for example, was agreement with the Tehran regime, endorse a proposal by Britain, France and Germany for sanctions on Tehran over its the latter’s decision to agree to a left wing and had considered with- which no one really wants to topple, development of ballistic missiles and its role in ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Now, drawing from southern Lebanon Netanyahu, who was happy with his Syria. Netanyahu is peeking through the many years before it happened in visit to Muscat, has realised that he Iran’s terrorist plots were hatched at a time window to talk about a war beyond 2000. It had also pushed for secret still might have to deal with some the Europeans were trying to establish a barter the concerns of Gaza. negotiations with alleged terrorists exceptional aspects that will not be arrangement for the purchase of Iranian oil and Netanyahu’s political rivals in before it became publicly known as covered by any agreements. gas in exchange for EU goods. This system is Israel testify to the man’s skill the Oslo Accords in 1993. Backstage behind Netanyahu, meant to circumvent US sanctions against in playing with all the political Netanyahu has not stopped someone must be whispering, and Tehran. currents in the country in order using the “sin” committed by the perhaps even leaking and misleading, But Tehran’s bellicose behaviour has contin- to maintain his supremacy at the Rabin-Peres pair to fuel his own that his “tenderness” in neutralis- ued. In the face of the recent wave of US sanc- head of the government. He has power with fear and intimidation, ing the Gaza front through a surreal tions targeting its oil and banking sectors, not been defeated since 2009 in the only spiel he knows for holding agreement with Hamas is justified by Tehran somehow seems to see in unprovoked normal or early elections. He has on to power in Israel. Wise Guru the fact that Israel now regards the threats a way out of its domestic and interna- also been good at dealing with the Netanyahu solemnly declared that Gaza threat as marginal compared to tional quandaries. challenges coming from outside he was against an early election other looming existential dangers. Amirali Hajizadeh, head of the Islamic Israel. that could let the left seep through Netanyahu is anxiously watch- Revolutionary Guard Corps’ so-called airspace Netanyahu had remained stand- and cause another Oslo as hap- ing the rebuke of Russian President division, threatened to hit US bases and US ing in the ring during former US pened in 1992. Vladimir Putin, who barely met him aircraft in the region. He said: “They are within President Barack Obama’s terms During the Netanyahu era, for a few minutes in Paris, while our reach and we can hit them if they (Ameri- Israel did not wage a major war cans) make a move.” and we know that the latter didn’t Israel’s eyes and spy planes are moni- In an ironic twist, Hajizadeh was threatening particularly like him. Obama ig- that would have involved worried toring Hezbollah’s rockets in Lebanon to hit, among others, the Al Udeid Air Base in nored Netanyahu and even incited capitals, kept TV stations busy and around the clock. The matter might Qatar, which hosts thousands of US troops. That the US Congress in Washington forced the UN to issue resolutions, be grave but Netanyahu would rather threat against both the United States and Qatar against him. Netanyahu has also a war like the one waged against keep the status quo another year comes at a time Doha has been cosying up to survived the threats of Tehran’s Lebanon in 2006. Netanyahu did, at least until the next elections in Tehran and even hinting it might co-host the nuclear capabilities and the fire of however, fight some bloody wars November of 2019. 2022 World Cup with Iran. Tehran’s allies in southern Leba- against Gaza, which were under- In the end, the decision to have Iran has already threatened to disrupt naviga- non, Gaza and Syria. stood by the world as necessary war or to have peace is determined tion in the Strait of Hormuz if it is not allowed to Netanyahu seemed to be cooking for Israel’s security. Even the UN by Netanyahu’s mood, his electoral export its oil. It also continues undeterred in its up with Cairo a long-term truce investigations, although daring, calculations and his ambitions for destabilising support to regional proxies such as with Gaza, so that he can reshuffle remained a dead letter, showing power. That’s where we should look Yemen’s Houthis and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. his cards when it comes to dealing the obvious bias of the United for the secret of peace in Gaza and of The ambivalence of certain countries, espe- with the whole Palestinian situa- Nations in favour of Netanyahu’s war coming in other places. cially in Europe, can only encourage Iran to tion. His plan is really worrying the arguments. US President Donald pursue its terrorist activities and threaten world Palestinian Authority in Ramal- Trump and his UN ambassador, Mohamad Kawas is a Lebanese politi- peace. lah. The unprecedented campaign Nikki Haley, were all ears. cal journalist and writer. November 25, 2018 7 Opinion

Turkey has dug a massive hole for itself in Syria Published by Al Arab Stephen Starr Publishing House Whatever its plans are, it’s become clear that Ankara is increasingly sucked into the Publisher Syrian calamity — exactly at a time when it should be finding a way to get out. and Group Executive Editor Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD ore than two rebel groups, which range from Editor-in-Chief years since radical to moderate. Despite the Turkey’s first expense and calculations, none Oussama Romdhani major military have succeeded. Of the major incursion into foreign powers on the opposi- Managing Editor Syria we’ve tion’s side, only Turkey remains Iman Zayat Mreached a point where its plans significantly involved. are unquestionably falling For now, Turkey’s biggest Deputy Managing Editor apart. concern remains how to get and Online Editor As part of the September deal itself out of the Idlib quagmire Mamoon Alabbasi with Russia, Ankara agreed without foregoing the lives of to oversee the withdrawal of millions of civilians at the hands Senior Editor about 10,000 militants from a of the Syrian regime. The Syrian John Hendel buffer zone in Idlib province. government recognises Ankara That operation, which was to is at a disadvantage. Damascus Chief Copy Editor have been completed by Octo- recently sought to turn up the Richard Pretorius ber 15, was meant to avoid an heat by claiming, through its expected onslaught by Syrian minister for reconciliation, Ali Copy Editor and Russian forces. The biggest Haidar, that “despite the post- Stephen Quillen armed group, the al-Qaeda- ponement of military action, linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham the political process is currently East/West Section Editor (HTS), intends to remain in disrupted in Idlib because Tur- Mark Habeeb Idlib, foiling President Recep key has not fulfilled its duties Gulf Section Editor Tayyip Erdogan’s commitment with regard to the implemen- to have its members removed. tation of the tripartite Sochi Mohammed Alkhereiji Falling apart. A Turkish soldier stands atop a bulldozer at a Turkey has designated HTS a agreement… It is impossible to camp for the Syrian displaced in the Deir al-Ballut refugee Society and Travel terrorist organisation. talk about reconciliation or deal camp in Afrin’s countryside, on November 19. (AFP) Sections Editor If or when Turkey can get the making.” Samar Kadi disarmed fighters out of Idlib, Erdogan’s long-term plan reports suggest Erdogan plans ble for violations against civil- tivity and political opposition for the thousands of extremist Syria and Lebanon to use them to fight Kurdish ians inside Turkey’s so-called at home. In recent weeks, it’s fighters his government claims Section Editor militias further east in northern Olive Branch and Euphrates gone a significant way towards it can persuade to leave Idlib Simon Speakman Cordall Syria, in Afrin and Manbij. But Shield safe zones. repairing relations with Europe is anyone’s guess. Turkey may such a move would effec- A Turkish-run displacement and the United States after one hope to eventually integrate Contributing Editor tively see the militants face off camp for 350 families also in of the most testing periods in them into mainstream soci- Rashmee Roshan Lall against US-backed Kurdish mi- Afrin province reports this decades. ety along the borderlands and litias, a scenario that’s clearly month that tents have been de- But what makes Turkey think use them to keep Kurds in the Contributing Analyst unpalatable to Washington. stroyed by floods. Many of the it can succeed in bringing rebel region from causing trouble. Ed Blanche HTS is also at risk of breaking camp’s residents are Syrian Pal- groups together when Wash- Last month, Turkey announced apart, and no one knows quite estinians relocated from their ington and a host of Gulf coun- plans to bring further terri- Senior Correspondents how Turkey can force it to do homes south of Damascus. tries have repeatedly failed to tory in northern Syria under its Mahmud el-Shafey (London) as it asks. They are enraged with Ankara do so over the past seven years? control. But it ought to be clear Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) Next door in Afrin, part of a for abandoning them. Food, Ankara is finding out that, by now that more territory in Thomas Seibert (Istanbul) strip of land in Aleppo province bedding and clothing supplies like others before it, the Syrian Syria means more headaches, referred to in Turkey as the at the Deir Ballut camp have battlefield is a complex and un- not less. Regular Columnists Northern Syrian Security Belt, been ruined due to inclement forgiving arena. From 2012 to Whatever its plans are, it’s Claude Salhani clashes rocked the once-Kurd- weather. Residents say that 2016, US and Gulf interests put become clear that Ankara is Yavuz Baydar ish-majority city on November AFAD, the Turkish humanitar- hundreds of millions of dollars increasingly sucked into the 18. A Turkey-backed alliance ian arm, has been unresponsive into propping up anti-Syrian Syrian calamity — exactly at a Correspondents of rebel groups was fighting to their plight. Lawlessness, by regime groups in northern time when it should be finding a Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) a former ally. Syriadirect said many accounts, is moving like Syria. The groups received way to get out. Dunia El-Zobaidi (London) Turkish-led factions are pursu- wildfire through Turkish-con- weapons, training, money and Roua Khlifi (Tunis) ing Shuhada al-Sharqiya. It is trolled areas of northern Syria. humanitarian support. Both Stephen Starr is the author of affiliated with the Free Syrian Under Erdogan’s leadership, carrot and stick have been used “Revolt in Syria: Eye-Witness to Chief Designer Army, is said to be insubordi- Turkey has managed to suffo- in the attempt to secure com- the Uprising” and has lived in Marwen el-Hmedi nate to Turkey and is responsi- cate both Islamic extremist ac- pliance from a constellation of Syria and Turkey since 2007. Designers Ibrahim Ben Bechir Why Saudi rhetorical support for Hanen Jebali Rashmee Roshan Lall Palestinians matters Contact editor at: King Salman’s robust assertion of Saudi support for Palestinians [email protected] offers moral and political ballast to a careening movement.

hat should no way they can go home and Palestinian refugee. Is UNRWA’s Palestinian refugee is sundered, we make of leave their place of temporary 5-million-strong flock correctly no matter if he or she was born Al Arab Publishing House Saudi King refuge, whether in Lebanon, described as refugees or should elsewhere. Quadrant Building Salman bin Jordan, Syria or anywhere else. that status be restricted to the The other game-changing 177-179 Hammersmith Road Abdulaziz Al Wherever they are, Palestinians roughly 700,000 people who aspect of restricting Palestinian London W6 8BS Saud’s reit- continue to live with the reality fled British Mandate Palestine? refugee status revolves around Weration of the centrality of the described as follows by the late The question is complex, numbers. In 2018, some — or Palestinian issue to his coun- poet Mahmoud Darwish: “The emotional and potentially game many — of the original 700,000 try’s view of the region and the Nakba is not a memory; it is changing. If there are 5 million refugees can reasonably be ex- Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 world? a continuous uprooting that Palestinian refugees today, it’s pected to have passed. The Na- Fax: (+44) 20 7602 8778 The king delivered the reas- makes Palestinians more wor- because successive generations kba, after all, occurred in 1948. surance in his remarks to the ried about their existence.” of Palestinians descended from If only a dwindling number of Shura Council on November But the Trump administra- the original 700,000 who fled people will now be defined as 19. The annual monarchical ad- tion is seeking to delegitimise British Palestine continue to Palestinian refugees, the issues US Publisher: dress to the council is meant to Palestinians’ status as refugees, remain displaced. That they of right to return, self-determi- outline the kingdom’s priorities which is to say a continuously were not born or bred in Pales- nation and statehood start to The Arab Weekly USA LLC. for the coming year. So, this uprooted people, still displaced tine does not mean they are not pale. In this context, King Sal- [email protected] much can at least be said: For from their home. It is doing refugees from their ancestral man’s robust assertion of Saudi the next year, so long as King this by refusing to fund the UN homeland. If the new Trumpian support for Palestinians offers [email protected] Salman is on the throne, Saudi Relief and Works Agency for idea of Palestinian refugee sta- moral and political ballast to a Tel: 248-679-6624 Arabia will continue to publicly Palestine Refugees in the Near tus were to apply, it would sum- careening movement. reaffirm sympathy for the Pal- East (UNRWA), which is relied marily revoke the only identity Finally, of course, King Sal- estinian cause. upon by 5 million people for these people have ever validly, man’s stated solidarity with Never mind the quibbling basic services such as health truly and always held. Palestinians comes amid fresh over the rhetorical or real care and education. This is, as Darwish said in speculation that the Trump nature of Saudi support for the UNRWA’s money troubles 2008 from his deathbed, a mat- peace “deal of the century” is Palestinians. King Salman’s (though it has now made up ter of a “tormented soul with about to be unveiled. That the words are important simply be- most of the shortfall) obvi- daily questions; both national deal, if and when it appears, Subscription & Advertising: cause he said them — and said ously affect Palestinians where and existential… Being Pales- will be weighted in favour of [email protected] them at this particular moment it really hurts — how they live, tinian is not a motto, nor is it a Israel is a given. That the Saudis Tel : (+44) 020 3667 7249 in time. how well they live and how profession.” Indeed, as India’s will not tamely go along is clear. Palestinian refugees cur- they raise their families. But first prime minister, Jawahar- Words matter. King Salman’s rently face an existential crisis US displeasure with UNRWA lal Nehru, once described the more than anything anyone Mohamed Al Mufti like nothing before in their cannot only be reckoned up flawed moral argument for else says right now. Marketing & Advertising history. They face the prospect in dollars and cents. Donald Israel: “Palestine was not a Manager of being stripped of refugee Trump’s America is trying to wilderness, or an empty, un- Rashmee Roshan Lall is a status even though there is no cast doubt on received wisdom inhabited place. It was already columnist for The Arab Weekly. Direct: (+44) 20 8742 9262 imminent, satisfactory settle- and the hitherto internationally somebody else’s home.” It is She blogs at www.rashmee.com www.alarab.co.uk ment available to them and accepted definition of who is a that home from which the and is on Twitter @rashmeerl 8 November 25, 2018 News & Analysis Maghreb Tunisian civil servants’ strike underlines country’s quandary

Lamine Ghanmi outside the parliament. Economists blame successive gov- ernments since the 2011 upheaval Tunis that toppled the regime of former President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali for o further press its demands big spending policies that were not for public service wage in- matched by measures to enhance creases, Tunisia’s main trade growth. T union announced on No- “The workers and the people de- vember 24 its decision to launch a serve better than that. We deserve a nationwide strike that includes all better treatment,” Taboubi told the government services and state com- gathering. ”People’s social gains do panies, for January 17. not come as gifts. We have to fight to Tunisian civil servants, represent- get them,” he added. ing a sixth of the country’s workforce ”Shame on you that you rule Tuni- of 4 million, had already staged the sia via orders coming from overseas,” biggest strike in years on Novem- he said in reference to the govern- ber 22 to protest the government’s ment’s acceptance of conditions tied unwillingness to accept wage hikes to loan agreements with the Interna- demanded by the powerful trade un- tional Monetary Fund (IMF). ions. Financial experts are of the view The strike by most of the 670,000 that the country and the government government employees paralysed are in a financial straitjacket that al- services at ministries in the capital lows it no room to hike wages if it is to and other state bodies in big and small avoid the abyss. towns except for minimal emergency “Any rise in wages will fuel infla- tasks in hospitals. tionary pressures, and higher in- The walkout postponed debate in flation will prompt the unions to the parliament of the draft budget for demand more wage hikes and the 2019. Prime Minister Youssef Chahed county will plunge into a vicious cir- and other ministers stayed away from cle,” said economist and former Fi- the parliament as thousands of em- nance Minister Houcine Dimassi. Mounting tensions. General-Secretary of the Tunisian General Labour Union Noureddine Taboubi ployees gathered to hear leaders of Financial expert Moez Joudi said: gives a speech during the civil servants’ general strike in Tunis, on November 22. (AFP) the Tunisian General Labour Union “The state budget, the current finan- (UGTT) lash out at the government’s cial resources of the government, the fiscal targets they have set for solution to the deterioration of the Inflation is likely to remain a thorny “sell-off” to international financial in- economic indicators, the level of pro- 2019, and also this will reduce the purchasing power of the working issue fuelling social discontent over stitutions by not deciding to raise the duction and the productivity rate do additional pressures that increased class and our hands are extended for the erosion of purchasing power and salaries of government employees. not permit a rise in the public service spending will put on taxpayers,” it dialogue with the trade union organi- the deteriorating of the middle class’s Defence and interior ministries wages.” added. sation. We do not blame it for practis- standard of living, all against a back- worked normally and the govern- The renowned economist sees the In September, the IMF endorsed ing its constitutional right.” ground of economic stagnation and ment shut down schools and univer- crisis in existential terms. the payment of a $245 million instal- Experts see a political backdrop government instability. sities across the country to pre-empt ”If we were to go down the road of ment to Tunisia under a $2.8 billion to the mobilisation of trade union- The government expects infla- turbulence. increasing wages and more debt, we loan agreement after talks described ists against the Chahed government tion to drop to 6.1% in 2019 from an The UGTT is demanding that gov- will end up selling off everything of by local analysts as difficult because a year ahead of presidential and leg- estimated 7% this year — the highest ernment workers get pay rises similar value in Tunisia to pay back debts. of the “mixed assessment” of the pro- islative elections. Leftists want to level in two decades. But critics say to those granted last month to work- Our country is dear to us and we are gress in some reforms mandated as challenge the government’s vital ties real inflation rates are much higher ers of state-owned enterprises and about to lose it now,” he added. conditions for the loan. to international financial institutions and demand a review of the criteria in the private sector earlier this year, The IMF’s opinion matters a great “If the head of the government, and the perceived support of such in- to calculate price trends. from the equivalent of 15 to 30 euros deal for Tunisia. Loans received from Youssef Chahed, was inclined in fa- stitutions to the neo-liberal policies of Inflation rates also put a break on ($17-34) monthly. the fund are conditional on reforms vour of populist stances and putting Chahed. growth as businesses face declining “It is a flagrant form of discrimi- that include keeping public service election interests above national in- Experts also see in the strike the revenues and find it more difficult to nation against public servants. We wages under control to prevent fur- terests he would have signed for the first sign of an anti-Islamist alliance get loans and expand ventures. have families and children like other ther worsening of Tunisia’s debt wage increases,” said government including trade unions, leftist fac- The Central Bank increased its workers. We feel the pinches of in- problems. spokesman Iyad Dahmani. tions as well as members of the lead- headline interest rate to 6.75% recent- flation and rising prices as they do,” On November 13, the IMF warned “The easiest thing to do for him ing secularist party Nidaa Tounes ly, causing borrowing costs for con- said 45-year-old Agriculture Minis- Tunisia that “it is very important for would have been to allow the salary who have remained loyal to the lead- sumers and enterprises to increase to try employee Salah Hammami as he the government to maintain control hikes. But he preferred the defence ership of Hafedh Caid Essebsi, son of up to 12%. waited with thousands of other pro- over current spending and to main- of the national interests instead,” he President Beji Caid Essebsi, in a face- The UGTT vowed to “escalate the testers for UGTT’s leader, Noured- tain control over the wage bill.” said. off with dissident members backing battle” for wage hikes, meaning fur- dine Taboubi, to address them “This will allow them to achieve “The government is striving for a the prime minister. ther turbulence may be brewing. Spain, Morocco to boost cooperation on migration

Saad Guerraoui without notifying their Spanish minister’s visit to Morocco and his counterparts, wrote El Pais. meeting with Othmani and King Morocco has become a destina- Mohammed VI were more for show Casablanca tion for sub-Saharan Africans flee- than substance, as no bilateral eco- ing poverty and war but a grow- nomic agreements were signed. orocco and Spain ing number, including Moroccans “(The) Spanish PM’s visit has a agreed to boost co- seeking to leave the country, use dimension to strengthen the exist- operation on tackling it as a jumping-off point to cross to ing ties between the two countries M migration during the Spain. as it was expressed by Sanchez Spanish prime minister’s first visit Moroccan authorities said that prior to his visit when he said that to the North African country. about 68,000 illegal attempts to Morocco is a reliable and impor- Spain has become the main en- cross into Europe had been thwart- tant partner in the economic field try point for migrants crossing the ed and 122 people-smuggling gangs and in the fight against terrorism, Mediterranean into Europe in 2018, dismantled between January and organised crime and illegal migra- surpassing Italy, which closed its the end of September. tion,” said Lhou. ports to most asylum seekers. On November 1, the North Afri- The European Union agreed in More than 50,000 migrant ar- can kingdom imposed a new rule September to provide Morocco rivals to Spain have been recorded requiring travellers from African with $275 million in aid to help this year, the majority departing countries whose citizens can travel with basic services and support job from Morocco, according to figures to Morocco without visas, except creation in a bid to halt the grow- from the International Organisa- Algeria and Tunisia, to fill out an ing flow of illegal migrants from tion for Migration. online travel form for approval Morocco. On the same wavelength. Moroccan Prime Minister Saad Eddine Spanish Prime Minister Pe- at least 96 hours before leaving “Morocco has received Spain’s El Othmani (R) and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez inspect dro Sanchez said “migration is a home. The goal is to reduce the support within the European Un- the guard of honour during a welcoming ceremony in Rabat, on shared responsibility and we must surge in migrants, mainly landing ion to help Rabat financially in November 19. (Borja Puig De La Bellacasa/Palace of Moncloa) reinforce our cooperation in this at Casablanca’s airport. its role in monitoring the flow of area” following talks with Moroc- The European Union has been migrants to Europe, while Madrid can Prime Minister Saad Eddine El pressuring Rabat to stem crossings “Having been a source of mi- visit to the North African nation had Morocco’s support in its fight Othmani. of illegal migrants to Spain, urging grants and a transit state, Morocco since taking office in June. against Catalonia’s secession,” said “Morocco is doing all that is in its it to set up “disembarkation plat- has become a country of de facto Political adviser Samir Ben- Lhou. power regarding the fight against forms” — centres where migrants’ residence, law and policy,” said nis wrote in an opinion piece for Morocco is scheduled to host an illegal immigration,” said Othmani asylum applications would be pro- Lhou. “At a time when it is in- Huffington Post Maghreb that international UN-sponsored con- on November 19. cessed. But Morocco has rejected volved in the implementation of the context in which Sanchez an- ference on migration December The two prime ministers agreed the idea outright, with Moroccan cooperative migration agreements nounced his visit to Morocco and 10-11 in Marrakech. on strengthening the policy of re- Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita with Europe and Spain in either a the way in which the Spanish press Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Po- turn of “undocumented migrants” calling them “counterproductive bilateral or a multilateral frame- relayed this information showed land, Israel, the United States and as Madrid hopes that Moroccan mechanisms.” work and is involved in monitoring that the new Spanish government the Czech Republic have said they authorities will raise deported mi- Sabri Lhou, a Moroccan expert its borders to thwart migration at- wishes to maintain positive bilat- would not sign the non-binding grants’ quota via the Spanish en- in migration, told The Arab Weekly tempts towards Spain, Morocco is eral ties with Morocco, which it has UN migration pact. Australia, Ro- claves of Ceuta and Melilla, accord- that illegal migration has returned suffering from a lack of policy de- enjoyed for the past ten years. mania and Slovakia have signalled ing to Spanish daily El Pais. this year to pre-2005 levels and has signed to integrate immigrants and Spain now ranks as Morocco’s they would follow suit. The current quota was set at become a focus of both Morocco’s refugees over its territory.” top trading partner, outstripping 25 migrants a day. But Moroccan and Spain’s local, regional and in- Sanchez was accompanied by a long-time ally France. Saad Guerraoui is an Arab Weekly authorities have reduced it to 10 ternational political agendas. government delegation for his first Lhou said the Spanish prime contributor on Maghreb issues. November 25, 2018 9 News & Analysis Libya UN sanctions against militia leader fail to convince sceptical Libyans

Michel Cousins United States, UK and France, is seen as a calculated gesture by the United Nations Support Mission in Tunis Libya (UNSMIL), designed primari- ly to send messages to other militia n early September, after clash- figures rather than an end in itself. es broke out in the southern That there is more than meets suburbs of Tripoli and its only the eye to the move is apparent I working airport came under in the statement by the US Treas- attack, the UN special envoy to ury Department, which replicated Libya, Ghassan Salame, threat- the sanctions. It claims that Badi’s ened to impose sanctions on any- Somoud brigade instigated the one who endangered the city’s violent clashes in late August and security. that, on entering Tripoli, he had When the airport was again at- “called for support from other mi- A battle for influence. Libyan militiamen loyal to the Government of National Accord (GNA) keep tacked a few days later, he repeated litias to attack the city, plunging it watch from a position south of Tripoli, last September. (AFP) the threat but did nothing about it, into turmoil.” despite having said he knew who It was not Badi who initiated the the culprits were – a state of affairs August 25 attack on the south Trip- there were further clashes in the committed crimes against human- The wording of the municipal that exposed him to considerable oli suburbs. It was the Tarhouna- south of the city as the 7th Brigade ity. “Where is the rest of the list?” statement was diplomatic and de- ridicule on Libya’s social media. based 7th Brigade, controlled by tried to extend the territory it con- he asked. liberate, aimed at preventing any Last September, though, in what that town’s notorious Kaniat fam- trols near the closed Tripoli Inter- The previous State Council head, local backlash in support of Badi may have been a warning shot to ily. national Airport. Abdulrahman Sewehli, also joined and ensuring continued backing the belligerents, the UN Security Badi joined the conflict along- Responding to the sanctions, a in the fray, describing the move as for the city’s other military son, Council sanctioned Libya’s noto- side the 7th Brigade in a joint effort number of Libyan figures have crit- “selective” and “likely to backfire Fathi Bashagha, now interior min- rious Ibrahim Jadhran, who be- to defeat the capital’s local militias, icised their one-sidedness. State because it would cause polarisa- ister for the Presidency Council tween 2014 and 2016 blockaded which are being retained at great Council President Khaled al-Mishri tion.” that Badi wants to topple. Libya’s main eastern oil terminals expense to ensure security for the complained the sanctions were Like Badi, Gzeit and Sewehli The wider Libyan public sees at Zuweitina, Sidra and Ras Lanuf internationally installed Presiden- “selective” because they “did not are from Libya’s militarily power- the Palermo conference as a waste and on more than one subsequent cy Council and its Government of include other parties that obstruct ful city of Misrata, and their com- of time and is far more concerned occasion tried to recapture them, National Accord (GNA). the political agreement.” ments are seen by some as a clos- with continued soaring prices and most recently in June. The sanctions are seen as a dem- ing of ranks. In the city itself, there making ends meet. Members of On November 16, just three days onstration of Salame’s determina- was a small demonstration by Badi the public appear to concur with after Salame again warned at the tion to make his new security ar- There is already a profound supporters against the UN deci- the comments of the council that Libya conference in Palermo that rangements for Tripoli work, but and angry belief that the sion. While he can call on some de- the Badi sanctions were an empty anyone threatening security in there are no sanctions against the international community termined support, Badi is far from gesture that will do nothing to ad- Tripoli would be sanctioned, the commanders of the 7th Brigade, and some individual widely popular in his hometown vance peace in the country. There is already a profound and UN Security Council added the notably Mohamed al-Kani and his countries are playing with and prior to getting involved in the name of hard-line Misratan mili- brothers who control it, or against south Tripoli attacks was forced to angry belief that the international tary commander Salah Badi to its any of the Tripoli militia com- Libya’s destiny. leave for Turkey. community and some individual sanctions list, subjecting him to an manders whose forces have been No friend of his, the municipal countries are playing with Libya’s asset freeze and travel ban. accused of numerous crimes in the Another member of the State council too criticised the UN for destiny. Whether or not that’s true, Badi’s Somoud militia had taken capital. Council, Belgassem Gzeit, a leading being so selective. Singling him the Badi sanctions in the wake of a prominent part in the August/ While Badi is reported to be political moderate, likewise ques- out weakened the validity of sanc- Palermo are likely to further that September Tripoli clashes in which contemplating another attack on tioned the decision. Sanctions, he tions, it said, demanding action view. more than 120 people were killed, Tripoli, so too is the 7th Brigade. said, would be “more convincing against all politicians and military most of them civilians. On November 14, two days before and more equitable” if they includ- leaders “who toy with the security Michel Cousins is a contributor to The move, at the initiative of the the Badi sanctions were unveiled, ed all those in the country who had and stability of Libya.” The Arab Weekly on Libyan issues. Libya’s migrant crisis isn’t just a European problem

Thomas M. Hill and Both Russia and Turkey have done factions and their uncoordinated at- Emily Estelle so in Syria, working through proxies tempts at high-level peace negotia- to regulate the flow of migrants into tions only serve to undermine each Europe and creating a point of lever- other and prolong the conflict. ince the ouster of Muam- age against European governments. Italy’s alliance with Libyan mili- mar Qaddafi in 2011, succes- A foothold for two major terror tias has successfully decreased the sive US administrations have groups threatening the US home- flow of migrants crossing to reach S watched Libya’s continuing land and a valuable geostrategic po- the Mediterranean, but it has also collapse, believing that the coun- sition for Russia ought to be of ob- empowered militias that weaken try’s unravelling threatens only Eu- vious concern to the United States. Libya’s fledgling central govern- rope. This is a mistake. But neither the current nor the ment. In addition, the presence of Qaddafi’s fall left much of Libya previous administration appears to an estimated 670,000 migrants in ungoverned or controlled by mili- have noticed. Libya, almost 12.5% of the total Lib- tias, criminal gangs and the Islamic Blame Benghazi. yan population, has been fuelling State (ISIS) and other terrorists. Following the terrorist attack on social tensions and making conflict The state’s breakdown opened the the US Consulate in Benghazi in resolution even more complex. The floodgates to hundreds of thou- 2012, Congress and successive ad- US administration is consumed sands of migrants, predominantly ministrations have shied away from with other foreign and domestic from sub-Saharan Africa, perilously all involvement in Libya beyond challenges and is more than happy attempting to reach the Mediterra- a limited counterterrorism policy. to cede management of the Libya nean for the dangerous crossing to The crisis is seen as a regional prob- problem to Europe. Europe. lem to be resolved by Europeans, But the result will be a new tool who are most affected by the influx in Vladimir Putin’s arsenal and a vi- of undocumented migrants. This tal base of operations for both ISIS Military interventions overlooks the direct threats to US and al-Qaeda. The only answer is have little effect long national security interests posed by the use of American leadership to term, and diplomatic the influx of migrants. end international infighting, lim- avenues are stalled. US policy towards Libya also as- ited intervention to stabilise key sumes that the UN-led political Troubled waters. Migrants travel in a Libyan Navy boat to the coastal Libyan cities, additional sanctions Today, the ancient smuggling net- reconciliation process will estab- city of Tripoli after being rescued when their boat broke down. targeting human traffickers and as- works and routes that cross Libya’s lish a central governing authority, (Reuters) sistance programmes that stem the southern border have become big which will, in turn, eradicate the tide of humans flowing into Libya. business for human traffickers and symptoms of political dysfunction, ronment for ISIS and al-Qaeda to “presence and operation in Libya This is not only a humanitarian im- modern-day slave traders. ISIS and irregular migration and terrorism metastasise and launch attacks are only spreading… Libya may be- perative; it’s a national security im- al-Qaeda profit directly from en- among them. Migration, however, against US interests in the region come a shelter for terrorist groups perative. gaging in, and taxing, illegal activi- is part of a larger system of corrup- and abroad. While US military inter- of all persuasions.” ties such as human trafficking and tion and criminality that is driving ventions have stopped such groups In short, military interventions Thomas M. Hill is a senior smuggling — activities that have the conflict. from controlling major cities and have little effect long term, and dip- programme officer for North Africa been fuelling Libya’s political and This lawlessness has allowed peo- the country’s infrastructure, they lomatic avenues are stalled. France at the United States Institute of security crisis, helping to spawn ple with guns — with real power — have not eliminated the threat. ISIS and Italy recognise correctly that Peace. Emily Estelle is a senior terrorist threats and spreading in- to resist any political resolution that is resurging in central Libya just managing the irregular migration analyst for the Critical Threats stability across northern Africa. would disrupt their highly profit- two years after a US-backed opera- crisis is key to resolving the Libya Project at the American Enterprise And Russia, which is building in- able businesses. Breaking this cycle tion ousted the group from the city conflict, but their interventions of- Institute. This article is reprinted fluence in Libya, has an opportunity of instability is critical. of Sirte. The United Nations envoy ten work at cross-purposes. Their with permission by the United to exploit the migrant crisis there. Today, Libya is a fertile envi- to Libya recently warned that ISIS’s respective support of rival militia States Institute of Peace. 10 November 25, 2018 News & Analysis Syria Trump walks tightrope between Turkish, Kurdish allies

Sami Moubayed Conflicting agendas. Turkish Beirut Defence Minister Hulusi S President Donald Trump Akar (L) speaks is trying hard to walk the with US Secre- tightrope between the tary of Defence Turks, his country’s histor- James Mattis U during a NATO ic NATO allies and Kurdish benefi- ciaries on the Syrian battlefield. meeting in On a personal level, Trump seems Brussels, on to sincerely believe in Kurdish na- October 4. tionalist aspirations and sees them (Reuters) as vital allies in the war on terror, often praising their battle acumen against the Islamic State (ISIS). The Kurds are the only militias on the Syrian battlefield still receiving US arms and money, with $300 mil- lion allocated for their armament in 2019 and $290 million set aside for their brethren in Iraqi Kurdistan, the peshmerga. Trump also realises, however, that if the Turks are crossed once too of- ten, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would gladly and swiftly let his country slip into the Russian orbit. Erdogan already gravely mis- trusts the Trump administration and seems to get along perfectly well with Russian President Vladimir Pu- tin, his partner in the Syrian peace process in Astana. the Euphrates, al-Hasakah and Qam- Undaunted, the Turkish leader abandon them any minute, despite ish cities. The SDF said no, suggest- Today, the confrontation in north- ishli. snapped: “We know very well how all assurances to the contrary. ing instead that they retake war-torn eastern Syria seems on tipping edge, More than 1,200 Syrian fight- those who declare the PKK terrorists Trump has already hinted that he Raqqa only. as Erdogan plans to launch a new of- ers have been shipped into Turkish and place bounties on their leaders wants to withdraw US troops from An SDF delegation visited the fensive against Kurdish separatists training camps from the countryside work together with them.” Syria but is only keeping them to Syrian capital earlier this summer, in the area, completely ignoring US of Aleppo, tasked with preparing for He wants the United States to counterbalance Iran’s presence. If he also seeking joint action against the requests for self-restraint. a “big battle” with “Kurdish terror- blacklist Kurdish militias in Syria puts his words into action, it would Turks. Those talks collapsed after Those militias are a threat to ists” before Christmas. and to stop doing business with spell disaster for the Kurds. Turkish militias attacked and killed Turkish national security, Erdogan This puts Trump in a particularly them. US Special Envoy for Syria They have been told by various US 18 government troops in Qamishli claims, all affiliated with the out- difficult position with very few op- James Jeffrey made it clear that this visitors that the president is upset last September. lawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party tions to pick from. He can either won’t happen, saying: “Our position with their mediocre resistance in Af- Syrian assistance to the Kurds (PKK), which has led a military in- convince his Turkish counterpart to on the PKK is clear, but we don’t rin, appalled by the fact that despite would require a go-ahead by the surgency against the Turkish state delay the operation, perhaps even classify the YPG (People’s Protection all training and assistance, they were Russians, who would never approve since 1984. In 2016, Erdogan’s troops put if off completely, or he can look Units) as a terrorist organisation. We unable to repel last February’s Turk- such action today, certainly not marched across the border, eradicat- the other way as the Turkish Army have never done that.” ish operation. The Americans failed when the Putin-Erdogan relation- ing Kurdish presence and that of ISIS pounds Kurdish militias carrying The maverick Turkish president to pull through with their backing ship is going so well. in Syrian towns Azaz, Jarabulus and American weapons, armed and is still upset with the United States for total Kurdish independence in This leaves the Kurds with one op- al-Bab. trained by the CIA since 2016. giving Kurdish militias rather than Iraq and failed to bring about an au- tion, to fight until the curtain falls, Last February, they marched into The US president initially tried the Turkish Army the honours of tonomous entity for them in Syria waiting for the Americans to impose Afrin, west of the Euphrates River, the first option, as US forces set up liberating Raqqa, the former self- Members of the Syrian Democrat- a ceasefire or truce while hoping that deep within Russia’s sphere of influ- joint patrols with the Turkish Army proclaimed capital of ISIS. He also ic Forces (SDF) reached out to Da- the upcoming battle only strength- ence, overrunning the city and ex- around Manbij this month with ob- had his eyes on Manbij, but it too mascus earlier this year, requesting ens them, rather than bringing them pelling its Kurdish inhabitants to the servation points along the northern was brought under Kurdish rule in military assistance to fight off the down completely. north of Aleppo. border. He then put a $12 million mid-2016. Turkish assault. Syrian officialdom Erdogan claims that they will not bounty on the head of three “want- Syrian Kurds are also cautious conditioned full surrender of al-Ha- Sami Moubayed is a Syrian historian rest until the remaining Kurds are ed” Kurdish separatists, hoping that about dealing with the unpredict- sakah and Qamishli and the return and author of “Under the Black eradicated in Manbij, also west of this would please Erdogan. able Trump, feeling that he might of government agencies to all Kurd- Flag” (IB Tauris, 2015). Viewpoint US losing control in Syria as Russia-Iran axis gains ground

espite the change of with Turkey and Russia, is a signal Yet, the United States first cut anti-Iran coalition but any effort rhetoric between US that what George Washington off the SF’s support by ending to confront Tehran’s designs in Presidents Barack University’s Hassan Hassan called the CIA’s Timber Sycamore pro- the Levant also needs to engage Kyle Orton Obama and Donald “the Astana-isation of Geneva” is gramme and then stood aside as Turkey. Trump, the United nearly complete. Russian airpower enabled IRGC- The front line against Iran is in States has continued The Istanbul communique led troops to capture the area in Syria and the Gulf states do not Dto lose influence, political and was written, whether on “recon- July. That Moscow convinced have the tools for a significant military, in the Middle East to the struction” or elections, in terms Israel to hold fire, despite Russia’s “pushback” in that theatre. Of the Iran-Russia axis. the Kremlin devised long ago to hollow position in Syria, under- other options, the PKK is not po- Since January 2017, the Russia- legitimise Assad’s power. While lined how far astray Western litically reliable and Israel, which led Astana political process, European diplomats privately policy has gone. can do some of the heavy lifting, including Iran and Turkey, has voiced displeasure about Berlin Worse, the Wall Street Journal has political limitations. run parallel to the internation- and Paris signing on to this, the reported that, since the pro-Assad There are signs the United ally recognised Geneva process. United States publicly endorsed it. coalition took Daraa, approxi- States realised it needs Turkey Moscow drew in Ankara after Inside Syria, the situation is mately 2,000 rebels abandoned to achieve its stated goals in the the Turks changed their priori- worse. Trump has, rhetorically, by the United States have been northern Middle East and the US ties from overthrowing Iran’s and placed countering Iran at the recruited by the IRGC, working rhetoric saying Assad must go, the Russia’s client, Syrian President centre of his Middle East policy. through its Lebanese branch, sine qua non of a serious anti Iran Bashar Assad, to containing the The United States pulled out of Hezbollah. These rebels-turned- policy, has reappeared. Yet it is Syrian Democratic Forces. The the nuclear deal and reimposed Hezbollah fighters are paid $250 all so very late, slow-moving and United States has empowered sanctions against Tehran. Where per month, more than Assad’s unspecific that it lacks credibility, the group, which is an arm of the it really matters, however, Iranian regular army. even if there is intent. separatist Kurdistan Workers’ influence has been allowed to At the other end of Syria, Tur- Beyond Syria, the indicators are Party (PKK), as a partner against expand — in coordination with key mobilised its rebel proxies for just as discouraging. In Yemen, the Islamic State. “De-escalation Russia. a possible offensive against the the Trump administration is zones” created by Astana allowed The clearest indication of PKK east of the Euphrates, one of signalling its unwillingness to see Assad’s battered regime to elimi- Trump’s lack of seriousness about the groups involved was Firqat the Saudi-led coalition’s mission nate pockets of resistance one at a Iran was allowing the collapse al-Hamza, which was part of both through against Iran’s allies and time, until only Idlib was left. of Daraa, the Syrian enclave on the CIA’s anti-Assad programme in Lebanon the cash continues to This reshaping of the military Israel’s border held by Southern and the Pentagon’s disastrous flow to a state security apparatus picture in Syria was leveraged into Front (SF) rebels. train-and-equip programme. The under IRGC dominance. political currency, positing Assad The SF’s moderation was not United States can hardly be sur- After Daraa, it is both much as a counterterrorism partner and in doubt — extensively vetted prised her discarded assets have more difficult to enact a serious The Trump team’s bet intended to redraw the Geneva by the United States, elements sought alternate patronage. anti-Iran policy and more diffi- on Saudi Arabia as an terms so it was no longer about had crossed that most sensitive The Trump team’s bet on Saudi cult to imagine that the Trump transitioning Assad out but nego- of lines by establishing relations Arabia as an anti-Iran pillar makes administration actually desires to, anti-Iran pillar makes tiating the terms under which he with Israel — and its utility, in the strategic sense, in view of the at least if it involves risk and cost strategic sense but it would stay. coldest terms, was clear, provid- Saudis’ commitment to contain at any detectable level. cannot bear alone the The Istanbul summit at the ing a buffer against Iran’s Islamic the Iranian threat but it cannot end of October, during which Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) bear alone the weight Trump Kyle Orton is a Middle East weight Trump has Germany and France broke away for both the Jewish state and has placed on it. The Saudis are analyst. Follow him on Twitter placed on it. from the Geneva set and treated fragile Jordan. a necessary component of the @KyleWOrton. November 25, 2018 11 News & Analysis Political Islam in Egypt

Viewpoint Egypt redraws the map Is this the end of Egypt’s of Salafist movements Jamaa Islamiya?

or another in the topics usually treated by Raslan in his sermons Amr Emam must have pricked the minis- Hisham al-Najjar try,” Okasha said, adding that he Cairo expects Raslan “will be allowed to preach again once the mistake is ne of Egypt’s most prom- fixed and Raslan agrees to abide inent remaining Islamist he Egyptian minister by the ministry’s line and its groups, Jamaa Islamiya, of endowments has religious reformist programme. O is facing a tough test of revoked the preaching Raslan’s position with respect to survival after the Cairo Criminal licence of Moham- the Muslim Brotherhood is clear; Court ruled to include 164 of the med Saeed Raslan, a he’s totally against them.” group’s members on a new Na- well-known Salafist Raslan has often given scathing tional Security Agency terrorism Tpreacher and cleric belonging to criticism of the Muslim Brother- list submitted by Egyptian au- the Madkhali school of Salafism. hood and other jihadist Salafist thorities last month. The minister’s decision made movements. The words and This is the first time the Sisi ad- quite a stir inside the Salafist expressions he usually uses in ministration has sought to direct- movement in Egypt. these attacks are full of political ly target leaders of Jamaa Islami- Raslan, a student of Madkhali significance. ya, a staunch ally of the outlawed school founder Rabee’ ibn Hadi However, the fact remains that Muslim Brotherhood, which was al-Madkhali, has become a sym- Raslan’s approach is a pure tra- designated as a terrorist organi- bol and reference for Madkhali ditional Salafist one. This is why sation in late 2013 following the Salafism through his scholarly many fear the risk of having the ouster of Islamist President Mu- work, prolific preaching activity in mosque platforms belonging to hammad Morsi. mosques and his own TV channel the state be used to further spread The list includes leaders of the but especially his ideological bat- Salafist ideologies and radical organisation, both inside and tles with other religious currents, ideas that go against the state’s outside Egypt, and some senior including other Salafist move- vision on many topics the state members of the group’s still func- ments. wishes to reform. tional political wing, the Building Raslan is famous for the school Many also fear the pragmatic and Development Party. where he teaches, using a tradi- opportunism that Salafist move- The move, political analysts tional Salafist style, by reading ments have shown since the revo- said, threatened Jamaa Islamiya’s and commenting on a chosen lution of January 2011. They have existence and paved the way for work from the reference library changed colours and directions the dissolution of its political of Salafist movement. His school depending on the general mood party. and lectures attract students from of the period and reverted to their Jamaa Islamiya was a promi- around the world. former selves once the danger nent terror group in the 1980s There are two competing passed. and 1990s before officially re- schools of Salafist thought in People did not forget how the nouncing violence in 2003. In the Egypt: the Madkhali school, with Salafists had opposed the revolu- 80s, it was famously led by Omar Osama al-Qawsi, Mahmoud Amer tion and declared taking part in it Abdel-Rahman — the “Blind and Raslan as its emblematic religiously illegal. Later, they took Sheikh” — who was sentenced to figures; and the scientific school of advantage of the revolution and life in prison for his role in the Salafism with headquarters in Al- its consequences. They had been 1993 World Trade Centre bomb- exandria with Yasser al-Borhamy staunchly anti-elections and de- ing in New York. He died in prison as its main figure. clared the Muslim Brotherhood’s in February 2017. Both schools give the impres- project to participate in the legis- More recently, Jamaa Islamiya Proclivities. A 2013 file picture shows a supporter of Jamaa sion of disagreeing with each lative elections sacrilegious. Later, has largely managed to sidestep Islamiya chanting slogans in support of Egypt’s Muslim other but what unites them in they participated in all elections. growing popular discontent and Brotherhood in Cairo. (Reuters) method and approach far out- The same scenario happened government initiatives targeting weighs what separates them. with respect to their position political Islam in Egypt, but the Most Salafists in Egypt hold the concerning coordinated work. At recent blacklisting could change to provide financial support for Security Agency and submitted to Madkhali scholars and preachers first, they opposed any form of that, analysts said. the purchase of weapons and the court. According to media re- in high esteem and look at their organisation and opted to remain “Now, the organisation has to ammunition. The government ports, the agency received infor- successes as credit and support for as a proselytising movement but appeal the inclusion of its lead- also accused some of the group’s mation about plans by the organi- the overall Salafist approach. then turned into a structured ers in the list,” said Sameh Eid, a members who are included on sation’s fugitive leaders to enlist Relying on its religious institu- and hierarchical movement very specialist in Islamist movements. the list of staging terror attacks services from jihadists returning tions, the Egyptian government similar to the Muslim Brothers in “It faces the prospect of total ille- against state institutions and from battlefields in Syria and Iraq is implementing a reform plan, terms of the administrative and galisation if it does not take this churches. to form an armed wing. which was designed by experts in organisational details. When the move.” “Jamaa Islamiya’s collaboration Jamaa Islamiya sought to form religious thought, education and opportunity for political work The new terror list falls into the with the Muslim Brotherhood its own militia — called “Vigilante psychology under the supervision opened, scores of Salafist bodies wider context of Egypt’s ongoing was a fatal mistake,” said Nagih Committees” — in 2013 during of the Ministry of Endowments were formed in record time for the crackdown on political Islam. Ibrahim, a former leading figure Morsi’s term in office to keep law and which calls for a new religious legislative elections. Since coming to power in mid- of the group. “To survive the test and order in some of the south- discourse. It is clear from this experience 2014, President Abdel Fattah al- it is undergoing now, Jamaa Is- ern provinces where the group Salafist preachers refuse to fol- that the Salafist movement has Sisi has staged an unwavering lamiya has to chart a totally new had strong representation. Locals low the requirements of the plan become expert at political ma- clampdown on Islamist move- course, one that has nothing to do complained that the committees and preach opposing views and noeuvring and can easily adjust to ments, particularly the Muslim with violence.” acted as de facto morality po- dogmas, especially in the areas the prevailing realities and chal- Brotherhood and its allies. lice, haranguing people to attend of women’s rights, multiplicity of lenges in a way that guarantees its Jamaa Islamiya, which has Jamaa Islamiya is facing a prayers and preventing unrelated faiths and dealing with Copts. This survival and growth. been linked to the assassination men and women from walking in opposition embarrasses the gov- It is this talent for survival that of Egyptian President Anwar Sa- tough test of survival after public together. ernment and hinders its actions. allowed it to absorb the rever- dat in October 1981 for signing the Cairo Criminal Court Jamaa Islamiya’s charm offen- Many preachers employed by berations of the fall of the Islamist a peace treaty with Israel, wit- ruled to include 164 of the sive is also expected to include the Ministry of Endowments and movement in the revolution of nessed a political renaissance fol- group’s members on a new the replacement of leaders in- who do not necessarily belong to a June 2013. Some of its elements lowing the 2011 popular uprising National Security Agency cluded on the terrorism list with specific religious current have also perfectly adjusted to the new con- against autocrat Hosni Mubarak. terrorism list. organisation doves, such as Ibra- refused to abide by the principle text and thrive, which again raised Those implicated in Sadat’s him. of the unified Friday sermon. They fears that Salafists were acting assassination, including cous- This is exactly what the group Imprisoned for years after Sa- referred to breaches of that princi- from inside the government by us- ins Aboud and Tarek al-Zomor, and its party are seeking to do to dat’s assassination, Ibrahim was ple by licensed Salafist preachers, ing political and partisan mecha- were released from jail after the ensure that they will not face the one of dozens of Jamaa Islamiya such as Raslan, and by highlight- nisms inside parliament and uprising following three decades prospect of dissolution. leaders who made ideological re- ing their right to preach ideas preaching platforms in mosques. of incarceration. Exploiting the Apart from preparing an appeal visions in prison and renounced based on personal convictions, For some, however, banning group’s popularity, especially in against the new terrorism list, the violence. He became a hated fig- particularly when the discourse Raslan from preaching is a test Egypt’s southern provinces, they Building and Development Party ure inside the party for opposing proposed by the ministry is not, balloon launched by the govern- quickly formed the Building and has launched a charm offensive Jamaa Islamiya’s belligerence in their view, in conformity with ment to measure the reaction of Development party. It became to improve its image. The cam- against the authorities and also sharia. the Salafist movement. They say the third pillar in a loose Islam- paign includes a large number of its alliance with the Brotherhood. The Ministry of Endowments the choice of a popular figure of ist political alliance that included seminars and the publication of Nonetheless, those following had to move quickly to dam this Salafism as Raslan is not random, the Muslim Brotherhood and the articles by moderate members, the organisation and its strug- rebellious trend by silencing op- given Raslan’s popularity and the Salafist Al-Nour party. This Islam- in which they renounce violence. gle to retain influence said such position voices among its troops in sizeable number of his students ist bloc came to dominate parlia- In one of the videos on the party efforts are unlikely to succeed. Salafist movements and independ- and followers. ment, with the Building and De- website, a member speaks against Jamaa Islamiya, they said, was ent preachers known for extremist The purpose of the experiment velopment party securing its first the targeting of army troops and violent at heart and there is a re- views. is to gauge the distance between ever parliamentary seats. policemen. newed insistence inside decision- Security expert and specialist the movement and society on the Following Morsi’s ouster in In an interview on the website making circles in Egypt to put an on Islamist movements Khaled one hand and the distance be- mid-2013, Jamaa Islamiya sided dated October 15, leader Moham- end to its presence on the politi- Okasha said the ban imposed on tween it and the state institutions. with the soon-to-be outlawed ed Tayseer said his party backed cal stage. Raslan might turn out to be a pass- The government also wants to find Muslim Brotherhood, joining a state institutions, supported “There is no future for the ing summer shower or maybe a out if the Madkhali Salafist move- so-called national coalition that equal rights for all citizens and group unless it initiates full ide- quick “ear pinch” because Raslan’s ment has been infiltrated by other rejected post-Morsi rule. Accord- called for peacefully settling po- ological revisions,” said Tarek reaction and his call for calm more radical Salafist movements. ing to documents submitted to litical conflicts. Fahmi, a political science pro- among his followers were rather Cairo’s criminal courts, members Tayseer’s claims appear to fessor at Cairo University. “Only unexpected. Hisham al-Najjar is an Egyptian of the group held meetings fol- completely contradict the intel- then can the authorities accept its “It seems that some mistake writer. lowing Morsi’s ouster and agreed ligence gathered by the National presence on the political stage.” 12 November 25, 2018 Debate Lebanon’s Independence Lebanon’s celebrations cannot hide the risks it faces

ment will have to learn by heart if it wishes to comply with the sanctions. Makram Rabah Essentially, the unpredictable nature of these sanctions troubles Hezbollah and forces it to find an alternative way to continue ost Lebanese receiving funds from Iran. If it fails are under the to do this, it will have to force the assumption that Lebanese government to refuse their country en- to comply with these sanctions, joys the continued which it brands as a Zionist benediction of the Western conspiracy to suppress its Minternational community, which alleged quest to liberate Palestine. on many occasions has extended Consequently, contrary to the political and economic aid, espe- ongoing debate surrounding the cially in times of need. formation of the next cabinet, This streak of good luck seems the only obstacle facing Prime to be running out for Lebanon, as Minister-designate Saad Hariri it is gradually losing favour with is whether he will accept to fully many of the Western countries cooperate with Hezbollah on the that no longer see this failing de- future sanctions that might re- mocracy as the regional beacon of quire him to simply concede to the freedom it once was. bullying of Iran’s operators. The US sanctions against Iran November 22 marked the 75th and its regional lackeys exacerbate anniversary of Lebanon’s inde- Lebanon’s current predicament, pendence from the French man- as primarily Hezbollah, which is date — an occasion for the Leba- represented in the Lebanese gov- nese state to insist on promoting ernment, exposes the country and an archaic version of nationalism, its feeble economy even further. by parading its different branches Little to celebrate. Lebanese protesters chant slogans during a protest against Yet most Lebanese, including of the Lebanese Armed Forces and corruption and the failure of long-serving politicians to form a government in Beirut, government officials, at least pub- their outdated weaponry. on November 22. (AP) licly claim to be fully aware of the While this event was intended to scope of these sanctions, which express a sense of nationalism and they simply wave off as inconse- tions that include the use of the US agencies that can no longer hide patriotic reflexes, it has failed to quential. dollar. In the past, the US Treasury behind the pretext that Hezbollah mask or alter the bleak reality that Unfortunately, the reality is very blacklisted a number of Lebanese is a political party representative Lebanon is under a different type different. These punitive measures businessmen and businesses for of a large segment of the Lebanese of occupation by elements whose represent a new brand of sanctions money laundering and facilitating Shia population. agenda and overall ideology stand whose intensity and scope, if mis- Hezbollah’s financial activities. Attempts to distinguish between in contrast to what Lebanon and understood or underestimated, Shady characters, most of whom the pro-Iranian party’s political its diverse setup represent. will unquestionably place Leba- were involved in narcotics and and military militia wings carries The Lebanese will predictably non’s banking sector and economy weapons smuggling, offered the no weight outside the minds of continue to ignore all the domestic in grave danger. same services for Hezbollah, not some of the Lebanese political and foreign dangers and chal- The Lebanese have yet to grasp for ideological motives but rather elites who believe they can ignore lenges that surround them and the fact that these sanctions do for a substantial fee, and thus their the fact that Hezbollah, despite its assume that an illusory safety net not only include illicit business arrests or financial demise were local affiliations, is organically part will protect their fall. dealings with Iran or Hezbollah calculated risks. of the IRGC. Unfortunately, Hezbollah’s but all sorts of financial transac- Going forward, however, even Last week, the unfolding meas- ongoing regional adventures and a legitimate Lebanese merchant ures forced Lebanon to comply the crippling US sanctions, not to who wishes to trade with any with sanctions on a number of mention the failure by the Leba- The Lebanese will Iranian counterpart, someone who airliners, leading it to declare that nese to reform their state, might predictably continue to is not necessarily connected to the it can no longer refuel Iranian and be just too much for any safety net ignore all the domestic and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Syrian jets while transiting via to salvage. (IRGC) or the regime, will theoreti- Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International foreign dangers that cally face the same financial fate Airport. While this might seem Makram Rabah is a lecturer at surround them and assume of the aforementioned hoodlums to be only a minor inconvenience the American University of Beirut when using the US currency. to Iran, it is merely the tip of the and author of “A Campus at War: that an illusory safety net The same restriction applies iceberg and part of a set of future Student Politics at the American will protect their fall. to the Lebanese government restrictions the Lebanese govern- University of Beirut, 1967-1975.” Despite frailties, Lebanon has reason to celebrate

and claimed tens of thousands of victims; costly wars with Israel in 1996 and 2006; long years of Syrian Samar Kadi military and political hegemony; and the assassination of top Leba- nese politicians, writers and activ- ists in 2005-06. ebanon, a tiny nation Independence Day should not squeezed between two be an occasion to air grievances powerful antagonists — and frustrations only. It is also Syria and Israel — that important to remember that have caused it more despite all the odds, Lebanon still harm than anything has a relatively democratic system, Lelse in recent history, marked the a new president every six years golden jubilee of its independence and a national army. The little on November 22. country, which for decades offered Seventy-five years after France a platform for free expression in a ended its mandate in Lebanon, the region run by dictatorships, played Lebanese are still sceptical about vanguard of the Arabs’ central their independence. It has been Palestinian cause and forced the dimmed by an ongoing political mighty Israeli army to withdraw crisis that left the country without from its territory without signing a functional government for five peace, deserves its independence. months, economic slowdown, Having withstood all this is an acute unemployment, staggering attestation of Lebanon’s resilience public debt and dwindling public Golden jubilee. Lebanese soldiers march during a military parade to mark the 75th and a testament to the incredible services. anniversary of the Lebanese Independence Day in Beirut, on November 22. endurance and strength of the For many, there is no reason to (Marwan Naamani) Lebanese, who were able to deal celebrate Independence Day. with all possible challenges and still Young Lebanese seek employ- excel at home and abroad. Despite ment or higher education abroad electricity supply, clean water, (PLO), Iran, the United States and their differences, divisions and with the hope of eventually settling social security, free education, France all had their say in how grievances, the people of Lebanon in a new country where they can health care, proper transportation Lebanon should run itself. have stuck with their country in advance professionally and have and communication. In short, good Independent Lebanon has good and bad times with amazing the minimum conditions for a de- governance by politicians free of also survived calamities that few resolve. cent living: housing, uninterrupted corruption. nations of its size and limited re- For all these reasons, this tiny In more than seven decades of sources could sustain. country, my country, once dubbed its so-called independence, Leba- A mini civil war in 1958; Is- the Switzerland of the Middle East, Despite their differences, non’s internal affairs, as well as raeli incursions and attacks on PLO deserves its independence. And external policies, have been largely guerrillas and the Lebanese army despite the many challenges it divisions and grievances, the influenced, if not dictated, by Arab in south Lebanon from the late currently faces, it will once again people of Lebanon have stuck and foreign powers through local 1960s; a devastating 15-year-long prevail. with their country in good and proxies. Egypt under Gamal Abdel civil war (1975-1990) punctuated Nasser, Syria, Saudi Arabia, the by a destructive Israeli invasion in Samar Kadi is the Arab Weekly bad times with amazing resolve. Palestine Liberation Organisation 1982 that left the country in ruins Society and Travel sections editor. November 25, 2018 13 News & Analysis Palestine Israel

A Letter from Palestine Where are the opponents of annexation?

Geoffrey Aronson have erased the path opened by Sa- dat, Arafat and Rabin. For the first time since the 1970s, there is no Ramallah diplomatic plan or process on the table. Former US President Barack he shisha cafe in downtown Obama ended the “peace process” Ramallah is near capacity. in early 2014, but it actually ended It is a spartan place but the within months of his inauguration T orange juice is always fresh in 2009 when he failed to enforce and the tobacco aromatic. his demand for a settlement freeze. Customers enjoy smoking or play- George W. Bush, for all his glaring ing cards while the television broad- shortcomings, at least managed to casts a documentary about the forge a diplomatic process at Annap- Oslo process. The oversized picture olis. No matter that it failed. Obama shows a beaming Bill Clinton or- never even managed to get the play- chestrating the historic handshake ers in the same room. on that gloriously sunny, hopeful Emboldened by a diplomatic pro- day on the White House lawn in Sep- cess that substituted form for con- tember 1993. tent and gave Israel a free hand to No one watches the show. Life “create facts” on the ground, Israeli in Ramallah today has its own nar- Prime Minister Binyamin Netanya- rative, which has little to do with hu has eliminated effective opposi- the beaming faces on the television tion to settlement and annexation. screen. Trump’s “Deal of the Century” is Whatever your opinion of the the price we are paying for such fail- generation-old Oslo accords, the ures. His serially postponed plan is sense of energy and history was un- a parody of the real deal. Forget Je- deniable. The parade of faces across rusalem and the West Bank. Forget the television screen – Sadat, Begin settlements and an end to the Gaza and even the stoic Hafez Assad and siege. Solve the refugee diaspora The reality on the ground. Palestinian villagers react after Israeli security forces demolished a house (AFP) wooden Warren Christopher man- with the wave of a wand. Even if the in an area south of Yatta in the occupied West Bank, on October 17. aged a smile — highlighted a bygone Trump team has an idea, they have era when the idea of an agreement offered no indication that they can ians have often squandered their Palestinian Authority (PA) and its space in the zero-sum contest that that would resolve the problem of manage and operationalise a diplo- few assets. security agencies, the ministries Israel is winning. Palestine and establish a solid peace matic engagement of the complexity The Hamas-Fatah split looks un- and most significantly the separa- But the real energy for settlement between Israel and the Arabs com- and commitment required to undo bridgeable — a gift to Israel that tion barrier that defines their hori- expansion is the transformation manded attention. the consequences of Israel’s single- keeps on giving. The sclerotic lead- zons figuratively and literally. Given of settlements into suburbs, with Those days are gone. Sadat’s visit minded pursuit of dispossession. ership of the Palestine Liberation this, preoccupations in Ramallah movie theatres, big box stores and to Jerusalem in November 1977 cap- Borrowing a concept from the twi- Organisation (PLO) has been re- focus inward — on the succession to university campuses. Ariel Sharon tured international attention almost light years of the Obama presidency, duced to managing the West Bank Mahmoud Abbas, the PA’s changes saw settlements as a way to expand half a century ago. The promise of attention is now focused on an “out- under Israeli rule. Hamas won the to local retirement savings and the Israel’s “narrow waist” along the the restoration of Palestinian sov- side in” deal that begins — and ends last Palestinian elections over a dec- firing of Palestinian security guards Mediterranean coast, which is only ereignty through Egyptian patron- — with an Arab-Israel rapproche- ade ago but has failed to convert this from what was formerly the US Con- 14km wide at its pre-1967 narrow- age after the October War and the ment based on common security mandate into the kind of sovereign- sulate. Gaza is completely off the ta- est, and to create a winning politi- Oslo process that followed has been threats, real and imagined. ty that expands Palestinian horizons ble: The PLO, lamented one PA offi- cal constituency. The Israeli right’s squandered. Tireless efforts by a No one can escape responsibility and promotes rather than strangles cial to me, “is now a West Bank only politically unassailable leadership generation of diplomats have only for creating and sustaining this situ- the prospects of a new generation. liberation organisation.” illustrates the continuing success of entrenched Israel’s occupation, en- ation. But Palestinians, who have Israel’s occupation is both ever- Israel’s occupation machine con- his vision and the enduring failure feebled the institutions of Palestin- the most to gain from the creation of present and invisible — like the tinues to devour the West Bank of annexation’s opponents to chal- ian liberation and exhausted the a sovereign state, bear the primary sunrise and sunset, an unremark- and Jerusalem. An ever-expanding lenge it. interest and imagination of the in- burden of realising it or the ultimate able part of the scene. Young peo- road network to serve settlements ternational community. responsibility for failure. One need ple, in particular, accommodate the is everywhere; isolated settlement Geoffrey Aronson is a non-resident Time and enduring stalemate not be Svengali to see that Palestin- institutions created by Oslo – the outposts on scattered hilltops claim scholar at the Middle East Institute. Viewpoint The hollow victories of Hamas he recent violent con- small and limited battle and abort- pressure placed on Hamas’s leader- just resisting Israel to the Gaza frontations between ed its mission, raising the event to ship. We know that since the June Strip alone, a small, isolated and the Israeli military and the level of a decisive victory by 1967 defeat, Arab regimes have poor Palestinian territory, without Majed Kayali Hamas fighters in Gaza Hamas over Israel carries within frequently sought to foster a festive resources and besieged. came to a noticeably it dubious and dangerous exag- atmosphere following conflicts, To keep things in perspective, abrupt halt after media- gerations. It is also indicative of considering their mere survival consider the fact that the number Ttion by Egypt and international shortsighted, hasty and potentially to be a victory over Israel. Reality, of Israeli casualties in the West and regional interventions. The destructive political and military however, paints a different picture. Bank is much higher, but Israel is explanation for that lies in the fact perceptions. The truth is that there Despite the sacrifices and hero- determined to remain in the West that the clashes in Gaza were not is no comparison possible between ism of three devastating wars in Bank, while it withdrew from Gaza connected to the political context Israel’s military capabilities and Gaza, the strip is still besieged. It in 2005 because of its own consid- related to preparations for a com- those of Hamas and of all the other has been so for 11 years now, and erations having to do with changing prehensive and long-term truce Palestinian factions for that matter. 2 million Palestinians continue to demographics. that are being arranged by interna- First, the comparison is not suffer as a result. Hamas was closer Furthermore, the importance of tional, regional and Arab parties. possible in terms of numbers or than ever before to a truce and to the West Bank in Zionist ideology They include the alleviation of the equipment, let alone in terms of the solution of a Palestinian state is quite different from that of Gaza. siege on Gaza, improving living organisation and operations. in the West Bank and Gaza with For Zionists, the West Bank is the conditions there and boosting the Second, the fact that Hamas the added advantage of relying “Promised Land” or “Judea and economic situation with projects regarded Lieberman’s resignation on popular resistance, as we have Samaria,” the heart of Israel and its and investments. as a victory is indicative of its naive seen. In other words, and in order vital area. We have already witnessed the and mistaken perception of the to maintain its control of Gaza, Ha- In the meantime, it is useful for first signs of these plans with the modus operandi of the Israeli po- mas has become receptive to many us to realise that Israel, which is public and satellite TV display of litical system. Lieberman resigned things that it rejected in the past. riddled with contradictions, is not the arrival of Qatari funds and their because the army did not obey him Lastly, and without minimising only stronger than us by its military distribution in Gaza, with Israel’s and because he wanted to push for the importance of any military might and the unflinching support knowledge. further escalation in Gaza, while achievement against Israel, we of the United States, as some in It is clear also that these clashes the political and military establish- should not forget that Israel is in- the Arab world like to repeat to were not related to the wishes of ments in Israel simply wanted to vesting in dividing the Palestinians cover up Arab shortcomings and the two parties concerned. Israel pressure Hamas, not weaken it. and in the power struggle between deficiencies; it is also stronger than has no desire to end or weaken So when will Palestinian leaders Fatah and Hamas. Because of this us primarily because of the way it Hamas’s rule in Gaza. For its part, understand that the resignation of division, Israel will be able to ma- conducts its affairs, its democratic Hamas does not wish to start a an Israeli official because of a failed nipulate each authority separately system (reserved only for its Israeli fourth destructive war with Israel mission is one aspect of Israel’s and impose its dictates. The plan is Jewish citizens) and its human like the ones in 2008, 2012 and strength and the strength of its to consecrate the Palestinian split resources development policies. 2014, particularly in the context of political system? It is indeed a sign and transform each movement Suffice it to say that in just 70 years, the severe international and region- of the power of accountability and into an independent authority in there have been in Israel 12 heads al mood towards it. not the opposite. its respective territory subjected of government and 20 Knesset elec- This time, however, one cannot Third, Hamas completely misin- to Israel’s political, security and tions; that is to say an average of six help but notice Hamas’s reaction. terpreted Lieberman’s resignation. economic dominance. It is within years in office per prime minister Without minimising Soon after the recent fighting, Ha- The latter resigned in order to the context of this plan that Israel is and 4 years per Knesset term. mas began celebrating what it saw garner the sympathy of Israeli vot- backing Hamas’s control of Gaza. This is indeed the most impor- the importance of any as a victory in Gaza over the Israeli ers and increase his popularity and Once again, this is not about tant difference between us and military achievement army, just because the Israeli opera- chances in upcoming elections, for, belittling the achievement of the them, not to mention of course our against Israel, we tion failed and Israeli Defence Min- as everyone knows, Lieberman and resistance, but falling into the trap tendency to celebrate senseless and ister Avigdor Lieberman resigned. his party (Yisrael Beiteinu) were of unjustified exaggeration is also useless “victories,” especially in should not forget that For Hamas, these two events were falling in the polls. wrong, harmful and useful only for the catastrophic conditions that we Israel is investing in signs of a great victory over Israel. Fourth, Hamas’s victory celebra- escalating the rivalry between the have been living in for decades. Without wishing to belittle the tion was intended to mobilise Palestinian factions. It is also wrong dividing the bravery of the fighters who re- Palestinian society, especially in to ascribe the heavy responsibil- Majed Kayali is a Palestinian Palestinians. sponded to the Israeli patrol in this Gaza, and thus alleviate the public ity of liberating Palestine or even political writer. 14 November 25, 2018 News & Analysis Turkey Turkey boosts partnership with Russia as relations with West wither Thomas Seibert The ceremony marked the com- pletion of two undersea natural gas lines stretching 930km across the Istanbul Black Sea from Anapa in Russia to Kiyikoy in Turkey at a depth of some ussia’s grip on Turkey is 2km. The first line will be designed growing stronger at a time for the Turkish market and will meet when Turkey’s relations 35% of Turkey’s natural gas con- R with the United States and sumption alone. The second is for Europe are withering. gas supply to countries in southern Barely three weeks after his last and south-eastern Europe. The ca- visit to Turkey, Russian President pacity of each line is 15.75 billion cu- Vladimir Putin returned to the Bos- bic metres of gas per year. The first porus to declare that his partnership deliveries are scheduled for the end with Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Er- of 2019. dogan was stronger than ever. Gonul Tol, director of Turkish Erdogan and Putin met in Istan- studies at the Middle East Institute bul on November 19 to celebrate the in Washington, said in an analysis completion of an important stage the construction of the pipeline was in the construction of a natural gas a sign of “Russia’s tightening grip on pipeline through the Black Sea that Turkey at a time when Turkey-US will boost Russia’s role as an energy relations remain strained.” Turkey supplier for Turkey. Both presidents buys more than half of its gas from garnished their speeches at the occa- Russia, Tol pointed out, adding that sion with stabs at the West and prais- more Turkish-US trouble was possi- es for their own bilateral cooperation ble because Washington had threat- just three years after a major crisis in ened sanctions against Russia over their relations. the construction of gas pipelines to “Countries’ decisions as to how Europe. Stabs at the West. Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to obtain natural gas in accordance The boost for Turkey-Russian re- during the completion ceremony of the TurkStream pipeline project, on November 19. (Kremlin/dpa) with their own circumstances must lations comes three years after the be respected. Pressure, which will downing of a Russian warplane by violate states’ sovereign rights and Turkey’s air force at the Turkish- litia in Syria seen as a terrorist group pean Court of Human Rights ordered Sezgin Tanrikulu, an opposition prevent them from serving their citi- Syrian border sent ties into a deep by Ankara, as one example. Another Turkey to free Selahattin Demirtas, lawmaker and human rights lawyer, zens, will benefit no one,” Erdogan crisis. Relations got back on track one was Washington’s refusal to ex- a former leader of the pro-Kurdish tweeted the decision would serve said at the meeting with the Russian a year later, and Erdogan and Putin tradite Fethullah Gulen, a US-based Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) as a precedent for nine other HDP leader, in a thinly veiled reference have overseen a close cooperation of Turkish cleric accused by the Er- who has been in pre-trial detention members of parliament currently be- to concerns in the West that NATO their countries in economic and se- dogan government of being behind since November 2016. The court, hind bars. Kati Piri, the Turkey rap- member Turkey is getting too close curity matters as well as in the Syrian a coup attempt in 2016 that left 250 whose decisions Turkey is obliged to porteur of the European Parliament, to Russia. conflict ever since. The Turkish pres- people dead. By contrast, Russia did follow under the rules of the Coun- called on Turkey to release Demirtas. “We have never determined our ident hosted his Russian counterpart not support the Kurdish Democratic cil of Europe, ruled on November 20 “His detention is of a political, not a bilateral relations with Russia ac- as well as the leaders of France and Union Party or the Gulen group, that Demirtas’s detention “pursued criminal nature,” she tweeted. cording to demands or pressure from Germany at a Syria summit in Istan- Alptekin added. “Given that picture, the predominant ulterior purpose But Erdogan said the decision was other countries,” Erdogan said to bul last month. Turkey is obliged to work closer with of stifling pluralism and limiting “not binding” for Turkey. His coun- loud applause. Huseyin Alptekin, an analyst at the Russia.” freedom of political debate, which is try would take “countermeasures Putin called the new pipeline “a Foundation for Political, Economic Turkey’s relations with Western at the very core of the concept of a and end this business,” the president good example of an ability to stand and Social Research, an Ankara- Europe are also hitting new stum- democratic society.” said without elaborating. up for one’s own national interests.” based think-tank that often reflects bling blocks. Both sides agreed to Erdogan also lashed out at the The Russian president said he be- government thinking, said Turkey improve ties after a rocky patch in United States and Europe in a speech on the same day, in which he reject- lieved the TurkStream pipeline and had reasons to draw nearer to Mos- recent years, but European concerns More Turkish-US trouble the first Turkish nuclear power sta- cow. “Today, security threats to Tur- over human rights standards in Tur- ed criticism over the detention of tion, which is being built by Russian key are not coming from Russia; they key, seen as interfering in internal was possible because several Turkish academics accused companies, would become “clear are coming from the United States,” affairs by Ankara, have caused new Washington had threatened of organising anti-government pro- symbols of the growing develop- Alptekin said in an interview. tensions. sanctions against Russia tests five years ago. “Meddling with ment of Russia and Turkey’s multi- He named US support for the Peo- A new row blew up just a day af- over the construction of gas Turkey’s affairs is still on your agen- faceted partnership.” ples’ Protection Units, a Kurdish mi- ter Erdogan hosted Putin. The Euro- pipelines to Europe. da,” Erdogan said. Viewpoint New lows for human rights in Turkey t’s increasingly argued that breach of clause 90 of the Turkish suggested that the detention of toothless and there is also the ever- lawlessness has become the Constitution, which declares that dissidents and others was neces- present case for realpolitik, which norm in Turkey. ”You have left all international treaties, such as sary and that the EU should stop is to say the high cost of excluding Yavuz Baydar nothing of the rule of law!” re- the European Treaty of Human harbouring terrorists who aim to Turkey from the Council of Europe. cently wrote Professor Baskin Rights, are ultimately binding on destroy Turkey. The same applies to the EU and Oran, one of Turkey’s most Ankara. “It is meaningless for the EU to its approach to Turkey. The acces- Iprominent experts on domestic and It was always likely that the defend people who carried out sion process, just short of being foreign policy. ”Let alone interna- new presidential regime, as many actions to topple the elected gov- declared over, has diminished to a tional law, you have been breach- describe Erdogan’s powerful execu- ernment in Turkey simply because transactional partnership, bound ing the legislation of the Turkish tive presidency, would clash with they are civil society members,” he by economic concerns. The tragic Republic!” the human rights court. The ques- said. part is, everyone knows this but The professor went on to explain tion was when, rather than if. Over It is apparent that Erdogan no refrains from saying it. exactly who he was addressing. It the past five years or so, Ankara has longer sees any use for the ECHR or In the course of one week, the is “the One Man Regime,” he said, gradually distanced itself from the the EU. He has achieved absolute world once more witnessed the adding, ”I will not call you to rule court, though it has been legally power and considers it superfluous Turkish regime’s total disregard for the country properly, because after bound to abide by its rulings. It has for anyone to raise concerns about the law. On November 16, Turkey all these things that happened, it’s ignored nearly half of the ECHR’s even the most basic human rights arrested 13 academics and NGO very difficult. Just don’t trample on criticisms. One spectacular exam- issues. The ECHR and EU were activists, accusing them of trying to the law, that’s all.” ple is the victorious case of the valuable for Erdogan a long time overthrow the government through Oran was obviously addressing Alevi community, whose freedom ago. When he was sentenced to the Gezi Park protests five years President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of religion the court ruled had been jail for reciting a poem, Erdogan ago. Erdogan went so far as to call and his inner circle. What made violated. The Erdogan cabinet appealed to the ECHR. He took the George Soros “that Hungarian Jew him write such a strong piece was systematically sweeps the ECHR same approach in two later cases in lurking behind them (the Gezi Park the Turkish president’s open defi- rulings under the carpet. which he saw himself as victimised protesters).” ance of a ruling by the European The arrogant tone adopted by by Turkish law. And then when Er- As for Demirtas, Erdogan was Court of Human Rights (ECHR). Erdogan and his cabinet ministers dogan took office as prime minister eager to repeat the official line that It had ruled strongly on the case towards Western institutions and and felt threatened by the military, he was nothing but a terrorist who of jailed Kurdish leader Selahat- figures is now expected in Ankara. the term “EU” was frequently on received his orders from the Kurd- tin Demirtaş, saying he has been The outrage against the ECHR, his lips. istan Workers’ Party (PKK). Fearful held for two years as a “political reflected in the government- But just as he once used those of what could happen if Demirtaş is prisoner” and must be released im- controlled media in the form of institutions, Erdogan now skilfully released from prison, Erdogan does mediately. screaming headlines, preceded a plays on their weaknesses. He saw not have the option of letting his The Turkish government’s key visit by two leading EU figures how Vladimir Putin’s Russia and courts free him. The arrogant tone response can be summed up in on November 22. When Federica Ilham Aliyev’s Azerbaijan corroded The bottom line, of course, is that adopted by Erdogan Erdogan’s furious remarks. He Mogherini, the EU’s foreign policy the ECHR’s efficiency and credibil- once authoritarianism gets this far, and his cabinet declared the ECHR’s ruling null and chief, and Johannes Hahn, the ity by ignoring its rulings or playing the only path open to tyrants is the void and spoke about “counter- bloc’s enlargement commissioner, for time even as they kept people one they have chosen. Those who ministers towards measures.” In legal terms, Erdogan tried to bring up what they see as locked up for years. appease them are in denial. Western institutions had already crossed the line. But the arbitrary treatment of critics Erdogan possibly knows — and the Turkish president’s furious and dissidents, they received a gambles upon the fact — that Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish journal- and figures is now speech also underlined the absence sharp putdown by Turkish Foreign the Council of Europe can’t just ist and regular columnist for The expected in Ankara. of the rule of law. It was itself a Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. He freeze, let alone expel Turkey. It is Arab Weekly. November 25, 2018 15 News & Analysis Iran Too many stakes for Iran to back out from Syria

Simon Speakman Cordall to Moscow given that it can’t match the Russian political clout.” Sliema Iran’s investment in the Syrian war and in the survival of the coun- sraeli Prime Minister Binyamin try’s president has been significant Netanyahu has voiced his opin- and with the conflict seemingly ion to the Knesset that Russia reaching its final stages, Tehran is I would not be able to dislodge unlikely to quit the country now. its partner, Iran, from Syria, despite “Iran has made a major manpower international hopes to the contrary. contribution to the regime’s coun- The country lies in ruins after terinsurgency,” Jeffrey Martini, a years of brutal civil war. But Teh- Middle East analyst also with the ran’s presence throughout Syria, as RAND Corporation, told The Arab well as close to the locus of power Weekly. “So even then the Syr- in Damascus, could shape the con- ian government and its Russian tours of more troubles in Syria for ally would be hard pressed to bring years to come. about a total withdrawal.” Numerous operations carried out Though Iranian manpower within Seeds of trouble. Syrian President Bashar Assad (R) meets with Iranian Assistant Foreign Minister for by the Syrian regime close to the Is- Syria remains limited, its use of mi- Arab and African Affairs Hussein Gabri Ansari in Damascus, on November 12. (AFP) raeli border over the summer, with litias, including its Lebanese ally apparent Iranian support, have cast Hezbollah, has been extensive, giv- more doubts on assumptions about ing Tehran a significant degree of idea of waiting out Iranian with- tors drive this policy: The sanctions some kind of leverage that they use the Russians dislodging the Irani- influence. According to a report by drawal from Syria,” Tabatabai said. and loss of other markets, Iran’s to check the Iranians. They really ans. the Centre for Strategic and Inter- “So, as the policy is implemented decision to focus on the region (eco- don’t want another Hezbollah ac- national Studies earlier this year, and since Iran isn’t going anywhere, nomically) to overcome the impact tive within the region.” Hezbollah has between 7,000 and US positions will likely adapt to of sanctions and the domestic push With so many forces arrayed For Tehran, battling a 10,000 fighters in Syria. This is in meet this objective.” towards a more transparent econ- against them, Iran’s continued runaway rial and facing addition to other Iran-sponsored According to Russian estimates, omy, at times geared towards the bootprint in Syria may seem un- potentially ruinous US militias, such as the National De- between $200 billion and $500 bil- IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard likely. However, having committed sanctions, Syria’s peace fence Forces, that support the re- lion will be needed for the recon- Corps).” so heavily to the conflict, Iranian dividend could prove vital. gime. struction of Syria, with everything However, Iran may not be with- policymakers probably won’t back Hoping to dislodge Iran from its from power plants to new shipping out competition. For the neighbour- away now. “The outer edge of what Syrian nest are the approximate lines on the table. For Tehran, bat- ing nations of the Gulf Cooperation is possible is a reduction of Iranian “Iran continues to have signifi- 2,000 US service personnel, who tling a runaway rial and facing Council (GCC), Syria cannot become presence, limits on Iranian bas- cant influence in Syria given that with their Kurdish partners in the potentially ruinous US sanctions, a further rogue state, undermined ing inside Syria and limits on the it has provided much of the man- Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) oc- Syria’s peace dividend could prove by the presence of Iranian militias sophistication of weapons being power to support the Assad regime cupy large swathes of the country’s vital. “For months now, Iranian operating freely within its borders. transferred to Hezbollah and other and push back other groups,” said land to the east of the Euphrates. businesses have been working to “I think everyone’s looking at re- Iranian-aligned forces,” Martini Ariane Tabatabai, a political scien- “US policy in Syria has changed establish themselves in the coun- construction in a very opportunistic said. tist at the RAND Corporation. “But from a counter-ISIS campaign to- try, concluding contracts and MOUs way,” Sanam Vakil, a senior fellow at since Russia has become involved wards one designed to push back (memos of understanding),” Taba- Chatham House, said. “For the GCC Simon Speakman Cordall is a there, Tehran has lost some ground Iran — one that is premised on the tabai said. “A combination of fac- especially, they’re hoping to create freelance journalist.

Viewpoint Baghdad torn between Tehran’s pressures and US sanctions

raqi President Barham Salih’s not want the people of Iraq to taste are an umbrella organisation Americans are aware of how visits to Tehran on Novem- victory… and do not want Iraq and composed of various Shia militias, desperately we need Iranian gas,” ber 17 and Riyadh a day later the region to experience calm.” some of which report to the Islam- an unnamed Iraqi government Ali Alfoneh reflect the delicate balance The ayatollah further warned ic Revolutionary Guard Corps rath- official recently said. However, Baghdad seeks to maintain in against “some governments, er than to the Iraqi government. he stopped short of referring to a region where two powerful within and outside of the region, In Iraq’s recent parliamentary the violent protests in the port of Ineighbours battle for supremacy. who bear extreme grudges against elections, several of those militias Basra in the summer, which took The biggest challenge for Bagh- Islam… and interfere in internal were organised into a coalition place partly because of a halt to dad, however, is Washington’s affairs of Iraq.” called the Fatah Alliance. Doubling electricity imports from Iran. unilaterally reimposed economic However, the principle of up as political parties, the militias sanctions against Iran. Can Salih non-interference in the internal did well and won a significant maintain the balance between affairs of other countries did not number of seats in parliament. The biggest challenge Tehran on the one hand and Wash- prevent Khamenei from making Thus, this parallel politico-military for Baghdad is ington and its allies on the other? the following statement about the structure provides Tehran with If so, how? situation in Iraq: “Formation of leverage over Iraq. It’s leverage Washington’s Receiving Salih, Iranian The Popular Mobilisation Forces in Washington is keen to end as part unilaterally Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali the struggle against terrorism is an of its general policy of containing Khamenei warned the Iraqi presi- example of relying on the youth, Iran’s influence in the region. reimposed economic dent against “certain ill-wishing and it must be preserved.” At a news conference with sanctions against the governments and states, which do The Popular Mobilisation Forces Iranian President Hassan Rohani, Iran. Salih also had to negotiate the dip- lomatic minefield between Tehran Any boosting of the Iran-Iraq and Washington. Calling for bilat- economic relationship may also eral relations to be boosted, Salih be seen as a prelude to large-scale disclosed he had ordered the Iraqi circumvention of American sanc- Foreign Ministry and the Ministry tions. Iran will most likely rebrand of Industry to expand the relation- Iranian products, including oil, ship with Iran. as Iraqi in order to maintain its Commenting on the establish- exports to the world market. This ment of an economic free trade will doubtless increase transaction zone along the Iran-Iraq border, costs for Tehran, but it will help Salih said: “Connecting the rail- the regime secure foreign currency roads of the two countries would flows under the sanctions. be a great help [in] transporting Despite Washington’s opposi- Iranian pilgrims to Iraq, but it tion, there is little Salih can do. must further be considered as an This is partly because of the important move for the economic politico-military parallel structure infrastructure of the two coun- of the Shia militias. And there is tries.” In the same vein, Rohani Iran’s constant threat to cut power said the two neighbours can raise exports to Iraq under the pretence annual bilateral trade to $20 billion of “meeting domestic demand.” from the current $12 billion. This clearly shows Tehran’s Salih’s promised expansion of willingness and ability to hold economic ties with Iran comes Baghdad hostage in its row with soon after Washington gave Iraq Washington. Time will tell if Wash- 45 days to stop purchasing natural ington is willing and able to devise gas from Iran. The Iraqi govern- a strategy for Iraq that weakens ment dismissed the demand, Tehran’s leverage over Baghdad. citing the risk of an energy crisis. Dangerous association. Iranian President Hassan Rohani (R) speaks during a joint news conference “Stopping Iranian gas after the Ali Alfoneh is a Senior Fellow at with his Iraqi counterpart Barham Salih at the Saadabad Palace in Tehran, on November 17. deadline will create a real power the Arab Gulf States Institute in (Iranian Presidency) crisis. We need more time… The Washington. 16 November 25, 2018 News & Analysis East West Iran’s behaviour testing EU’s patience

Mahmud el-Shafey Under pressure. European London Union Foreign ran has come under significant Policy Chief pressure after the European Federica Union (EU) expressed cautious Mogherini I support for new economic speaks to sanctions against the country at a the media in time when it is increasingly reliant Brussels, on on European support to prop up a October 18. nuclear deal that has already been (Reuters) abandoned by the United States. The news comes after representa- tives of Denmark and France briefed EU members on Iran’s role in foiled terrorist attacks in their countries. “The EU held a renewed discus- sion about common steps against Iran,” Danish Foreign Minister An- ders Samuelsen told reporters after the November 20 meeting. He did not elaborate on what precise steps were discussed. The EU has traditionally been in favour of a softer line towards Teh- ran, including engaging in dialogue and ensuring the survival of the Iran nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). However, a number of European countries have become increas- ingly fed up with Tehran following been arrested earlier this year on ism, carry out human rights abuses ligence agents from Europe.” Zarif has sought to paint a rosy reports that Iranian intelligence terror charges. and attempt to obtain nuclear weap- The hashtags #blacklistMOIS and picture of Iran’s economic future, agents were embroiled in foiled ter- In March, Britain, France and ons,” a statement from the group #ExpelIranDiplomatTerrorists were despite the prospect of US sanc- ror plots on the continent. Germany sought to impose sanc- said. trending on Twitter following the tions. France has already imposed sanc- tions on Iran over its development One hundred fifty MEPs from six EU’s meeting and the MEP’s joint “We will certainly survive. We tions on Iran’s intelligence service of ballistic missiles and activities in major political groups in the Euro- letter, with many directly tweeting will not only survive, we will thrive. and two Iranians over a terror plot the Syrian conflict, but the proposal pean Parliament, representing 27 EU at EU foreign policy chief Federica We have tried to minimise the im- aimed at an anti-government rally failed to gain support. Following the member states, signed a joint state- Mogherini to advocate for the EU pact on the population but the ordi- near Paris organised by an exiled revelations of Iran’s involvement in ment demanding that the bloc hold to take a tougher stance towards nary people are going to suffer, the Iranian opposition group. The plot foiled attacks in France and Den- Tehran accountable for launching a Iran, including potentially dropping economy is going to suffer,” he said allegedly involved an Iranian diplo- mark, many more EU member states “new wave of terrorism against the plans to assist Tehran in circum- after a meeting with British Foreign mat based in Vienna commissioning seem open to imposing sanctions on democratic opposition activists in venting US sanctions. Secretary Jeremy Hunt. a Belgian-Iranian couple to carry out Tehran. Europe and in the United States.” Many are perplexed as to why Iran However, analysts say that with- an attack in France on a rally held by “The EU’s silence in the face of would sanction such intelligence out the SPV, US sanctions imposed the opposition National Council of brutal human rights violations in operations in Europe and risk back- earlier this month, particularly on Resistance of Iran (NCRI), including The hashtags Iran and lack of any response to the lash at a time when it is relying on Iranian oil exports, will prove de- providing them with an explosive #blacklistMOIS and serious terror plots in Europe is un- the EU to set up a so-called Special bilitating to Tehran, further raising device. #ExpelIranDiplomatTerrorists acceptable,” the statement said. Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to prop up the questions about the country’s in- Denmark has accused Iran’s intel- were trending on Twitter The statement was signed by four JCPOA. The SPV is a mechanism that transigent posturing in Europe. ligence service of plotting to carry following the EU’s meeting vice-presidents of the European would act as a clearing house to help “In the medium and long term, out an assassination plot on its soil, and the MEP’s joint letter. Parliament and 14 committee and match Iranian oil and gas exports to then, the latest US sanctions could targeting activists Tehran believes delegation chairs, highlighting the purchases of EU goods, thereby cir- make things very difficult for Iran,” were involved in a shooting on a The NCRI came out strongly in growing disquiet within the EU to- cumventing US sanctions. said Micha’el Tanchum, a fellow at military parade in Iran in the city favour of the EU’s potential sanc- wards Iran’s policies on the conti- “The Europeans are facing a chal- the Truman Research Institute for of Ahvaz on September 22. Twenty- tions on Iran, calling on the bloc to nent. lenge in identifying a country to the Advancement of Peace in an five people, including Iranian sol- blacklist Iran’s Ministry of Intelli- “We have seen many terrorist host the SPV,” Iranian Foreign Min- article in Foreign Policy magazine. diers, were killed in the attack. The gence and Security (MOIS) as a ter- plots by the mullahs’ regime against ister Mohammad Javid Zarif told “As long as Washington can prevent group the activists work for has de- rorist entity. “Several decades of the Iranian activists on European soil. reporters, expressing impatience it from obtaining vital enhanced nied any ties to the Ahvaz attack. appeasement policy towards the This is totally unacceptable,” said with the process. “In reality, some oil recovery technologies, Iran’s Tehran has also been accused of religious dictatorship in Iran, and Gerard Deprez, a Belgian MEP and countries who have been suggested economy will become increasingly seeking to target anti-government all the economic and political incen- chairman of the Friends of a Free as hosts have not accepted this task fragile.” activists based in Albania, which is tives that it has given the regime in Iran committee. “We have called and the negotiations for identifying not a member of the EU, with two these years, has only encouraged on the EU and the European mem- a host for the SPV mechanism are Mahmud el-Shafey is an Arab Iranian operatives believed to have the regime to further export terror- ber states to expel all Iranian intel- continuing.” Weekly correspondent in London. Viewpoint Europe is betting on Iran at expense of Iraq

obody has asked the nally, Iraq is not even adult enough for all practical purposes. There- by that regime’s policies for the European Union not to impart any wisdom or leave a fore, Iraq needs support to break whole region in general and Iraq in to support Iraq, nei- legacy. away from Iran so as to emerge particular. The truth of the matter is that onto the world as an independent In reality, by supporting the Farouk Yousef ther is the European Union required to Iraq is all of those things, but with country that puts its wealth in the Iran-affiliated Iraqi government, boycott Iraq because more evil aspects than good ones. service of its people. the Europeans prefer to use Iraq’s Nof its corrupt politicians. Iraq is al- It’s a concentration of what ought Iraq needs help to assert its demise as payment for saving Iran ready a fragmented country and it to be feared simply because its authority on its geographic borders from US sanctions. That price is should not be further marginalised wealth has attracted all kinds of with Iran so that it can truly sepa- incompatible with the humanitar- in a humiliating manner. evil characters, bandits and para- rate its national policy from Iranian ian values championed by Europe. During the 1990s, Iraq was sites. dictates. If Europe’s attitude towards Iran subjected to what no other country The European Union has repeat- Iraq, which has been devastated were genuinely motivated by had been subjected to in modern edly expressed support for Iraq’s by years of war, needs assistance humanitarian values, it should times. It was humiliated, starved, government. But the country is in order to elaborate an economic have sought different ways to save isolated, exhausted and emptied, a mine that can explode with its vision that would help it rebuild the Iranian regime other than by eventually leading to its military people at any moment. Shouldn’t its infrastructure, eradicate pov- sacrificing the Iraqi people. occupation and the consequent de- the EU then be the first to express erty and unemployment and join But Europe is basing its approach ficiencies in its political, economic, concern over the plight of the Iraqi the ranks of countries fighting to the issue on economic consid- social and cultural structures. Iraq people after they have been trans- illiteracy, ignorance and underde- erations. So from that perspective, has lost its independence, will, formed into chronic victims? velopment. it finds no moral impediment to freedom, cultural heritage and It is also very sad to witness such Iraq needs someone to wake it praising the Iraqi government’s regional role. It has now become an insulting gesture towards the up from the world of superstition dependence on the ayatollahs’ a mere failed state, referred to as Iraqi people as the EU’s expres- and thrust it into the modern era regime in Iran and placing its ex- By supporting the a model of endemic corruption, sions of sympathy for Iran in the and not someone who would fetter perts at the service of that govern- which in turn makes it appear as face of US sanctions. It is indeed it further to the mullahs’ regime as ment in order to slip into further Iran-affiliated Iraqi though that were its unavoidable a scandal that reveals an absolute the European Union endeavours dependence, which increases the government, the fate. absence of the humanitarian to do. dominance of Iranian militias in Europeans prefer to Today’s Iraq is ageless. It is nei- perspective that must precede any The EU’s accursed initiative has Iraq. ther a child to be handheld until it political action. shown that Brussels views Iraq as Another soft war is being waged use Iraq’s demise as grows up nor is it an adolescent to The Iraqi people are suffering a cow whose milk will help them by Europe against Iraq, except that payment for saving be advised until it matures and be- from the fragility of their state and save the mullahs’ regime. Europe this time its dark face is bare and comes an adult. Nor is Iraq a young the weakness of a government is brazenly and arrogantly betting exposed. Iran from US man who should take control of his dominated by sectarian militias. on the Iranian regime despite being sanctions. destiny guided by experience. Fi- Iraq is a country occupied by Iran well aware of the dangers posed Farouk Yousef is an Iraqi writer. November 25, 2018 17 News & Analysis East West Iceland’s solidarity with Palestinians unshaken since independence recognition

Yousef Alhelou her, furthering her interest in the Palestinian cause and the Ara- bic language. “We sell Palestinian London products during the Christmas sea- son, including the Palestinian kufi- he International Day of yeh. We also show some films that Solidarity with the Pales- shed light on the Palestinian issue tinian People is observed and sometimes we invite speakers T each year on November 29. from inside and outside Palestine.” On that day in 1977, the UN General Palmadotti said the association, Assembly called for the adoption which has some 1,000 members, of resolution 32/40 to support Pal- also occasionally sends solidarity estinian rights. activists and human rights activ- This year’s celebration also coin- ists to the West Bank to better un- cides with the 30th anniversary of derstand what is happening on the late Palestinian leader Yasser Ara- ground. The group has also man- fat’s declaration of independence, aged to send 500 artificial limbs in which he declared the establish- to Gaza over the last few years ment of the state of Palestine with through an international medical Jerusalem as its capital during the foundation. Palestinian National Council in Al- “We are saddened by what is geria. going on in Gaza and we pray for On December 29, 2011, Iceland peace,” said Palmadotti. “In the became the first western European past, we organised a demonstration country to recognise Palestine as an in the capital after the outbreak of independent state in its 1967 bor- the last Israeli war on Gaza in 2014, ders as well as the right of return of the Palestinian flags were raised refugees. The recognition came a and a number of officials from the month after Palestine became a full government and various parties member of UNESCO. participated. However, Icelanders’ support for “Another sit-in was organised Palestine dates back even further. last May outside the parliament On November 29, 1987, the Icelan- calling for the withdrawal from the dic-Palestinian Friendship Associa- next Eurovision contest that will A plight that matters. A man walks with flowers in Brussels among pairs of shoes during a tion was established, in part to raise be held in Israel in 2019 in protest demonstration in solidarity with Palestinians. (AP) awareness of and solidarity for the against the human rights viola- Palestinian cause. tions perpetuated by Israel towards Palestinian to settle in Iceland. To- parties. Occasionally we organ- some of the poems of the great poet During a short visit to the Icelan- the Palestinian nation. In addition, day, al-Tamimi, who holds a degree ise solidarity events involving the Mahmoud Darwish into the Icelan- dic capital, Reykjavik, I met Silja more than 16,000 Icelandic people in computer science from the Uni- small Arab community and conduct dic language and we are waiting for Palmadotti, the vice-president of signed an online petition to call for versity of Iceland, lives in the coun- various educational activities.” their response.” the association. Palmadotti, who boycotting the contest,” she said. try with 15 family members, includ- Al-Tamimi stressed that Iceland, I was astonished to learn from has helped raise awareness of the Iceland, with a population of ing his Icelandic wife, children and which is a NATO member and ac- Palmadotti that there is a poem, Palestinian cause since 2012, ex- 350,000, hosts a small Arab com- grandchildren. tive in the United Nations, is one “Accidental fire in Palestine,” that pressed her happiness and pride munity of about 500 people. There “When I came to Iceland I was of Palestine’s biggest supporters in is taught in Icelandic secondary in supporting the Palestinian peo- are also some 1,000 Muslims in on my way to the United States and Europe, supporting pro-Palestine schools. It tells the story of a Pal- ple, who she emphasised have long Iceland, mostly from the Balkans. decided to stay here, and at that resolutions in the UN. estinian girl who was accidentally sought their self-determination, There is a single mosque in the cap- time the support for Israel was big “The Palestinian leadership killed by a British soldier that was freedom and independence. ital — the Grand Mosque of Iceland and Palestine was ignored, because should take advantage of the Ice- planning to kill her father during “We conduct periodic meetings — in addition to two smaller places there was not enough awareness of landic diplomatic support and ben- the British mandate for Palestine with members and set plans to or- of worship. the Palestinian issue,” al-Tamimi efit from our presence, connections between 1923 and 1948. ganise some educational and her- Iceland ‘s Palestinian community said. “Over the past years we have and provide us with the logistical The killing continues in Pales- itage events to attract more volun- comprises about 60 people, accord- made great efforts and I can say support through organising cultur- tine. But so does the solidarity of teers, including those interested in ing to Salman al-Tamimi, a Pales- that the support for Palestine now al and heritage exhibitions such as the Icelandic people. human rights issues,” said Palmad- tinian who was born in 1955 in the is 99%. We held many meetings Dabkah performance for example,” otti, who added that her own visit village of Wadi al-Joz in East Jeru- with representatives of the govern- al-Tamimi said. “We asked our em- Yousef Alhelou is a Palestinian to the West Bank deeply impacted salem. In 1971, he became the first ment and members of the various bassy in Oslo to help us translate journalist living in London. Viewpoint Christian Zionists are Israel’s political foot soldiers in US

t is widely believed that organi- biblical responsibility to support the presidency in 1980. who took over his late father’s sations such as the American nation of Israel.” Sizer spoke recently Because evangelical Christians church, called Trump the “evan- Israel Public Affairs Commit- at the Palestine Centre, a small are conservative on issues such as gelicals’ dream president [who is] Mark Habeeb tee (AIPAC) and the American Washington research institute. abortion, gay rights and feminism, reuniting Israel and America.” While Jewish Committee (AJC), along A spot check of Facebook is they are inclined to align more with Trump is making them happy, US with wealthy individuals such revealing: AIPAC’s Facebook site the Republican Party than with Vice-President Mike Pence is the ad- Ias casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, has 169,000 friends while Christians Democrats. (The one exception was ministration’s true believer, a devout are the forces behind the unrelent- United for Israel, just one of many Jimmy Carter, who himself was a Christian Zionist sitting a heartbeat ing US support for Israel. like-minded groups, has 1.7 million. proud “born-again” Christian.) This (or impeachment) away from the Those groups and individuals do The theology of Christian Zionism fact has contributed to the growing presidency. have tremendous influence over and is only tenuously connected to the divide over Israel between Repub- Mainstream Christian denomina- connections to US policymakers: Bible. Adherents claim Christ will licans and Democrats, with more tions, including the Roman Catholic AIPAC’s annual conference attracts return only when the world’s Jews Democrats adopting critical posi- Church and traditional Protestant hundreds of members of Congress are in Israel but that Jews must then tions regarding Israeli policies. churches, have more balanced views and senior officials from both par- be converted to Christianity. Islam There is a widening gap between of the Middle East. Churches for ties and Adelson donated tens of is regarded as a hostile religion and Christian Zionists’ absolute support Middle East Peace, a Washington millions of dollars to the campaigns all Arabs — Christian or Muslim — are for Israel and the more nuanced activist group representing many of both Mitt Romney and Donald impediments to the return of the views of American Jews. A 2015 poll mainstream churches, actively lob- Trump as a reward for their pro- Jews to their homeland. Violence by Shibley Telhami of the University bies Congress. However, there is one Israel positions. is acceptable if carried out in the of Maryland suggested that 64% of thing those churches do not bring to Many of Washington’s most name of biblical prophecy. In fact, an evangelical Christian respondents the table: votes. influential think-tanks — the Wash- apocalyptic battle in the Middle East said a politician’s position on Israel Christian Zionism will remain a ington Institute for Near East Policy, is to be longed for because God will matters “a lot.” A 2018 poll of Ameri- potent force in US politics for the the Brookings Institution and the intervene on behalf of Israel. can Jews by the AJC indicated that foreseeable future, Sizer said: “The American Enterprise Institute — are Sizer said that in its most extreme 41% said they “agreed strongly” that [Christian] Zionist lobby is more dominated by scholars sympathetic form, Christian Zionism “propagates “caring about Israel is an important permanent than US presidents.” to Israel. a worldview in which the Christian part of my Jewish identity.” Sizer offered one shred of hope: For several decades, however, the message is reduced to an ideology of The AJC poll reported that 46% of surveys indicate that younger deepest vein of support for Israel in empire, colonialism and militarism.” American Jews expressed support Americans raised in evangelical the United States has derived from Former Israeli Prime Minister for US President Donald Trump’s households are more sceptical Christian Zionist organisations. Menachem Begin first saw the decision to move the US Embassy about the Christian Zionist agenda. While AIPAC and other so-called movement’s potential benefits to in Israel to Jerusalem. In fact, the Sizer credited social media and the establishment organisations deliv- Israel, despite their Christ-centred major political driver of Trump’s de- abundance of information available There is a widening ered millions of dollars in campaign theology. On his first visit to the cision was a Christian Zionist group, to younger people; their ministers’ gap between Christian contributions to pro-Israel politi- United States after becoming prime the International Christian Embassy, words are no longer the only voices Zionists’ absolute cians, the Christian Zionists offered minister in 1977, Begin met with the whose Facebook page has twice as they hear. something even more important: Reverend Jerry Falwell, the most many friends as AIPAC’s and whose support for Israel and tens of millions of votes. prominent evangelical Christian Jerusalem office occupies the former Mark Habeeb is East-West Editor the more nuanced Stephen Sizer, an Anglican min- leader in the United States at the family home of the late Palestinian- of The Arab Weekly and adjunct ister and author of “Zion’s Christian time and a vocal Zionist. Through American scholar Edward Said. professor of Global Politics and views of American Soldiers?,” defines Christian Zionists Falwell, Begin gained access to After Trump announced the Security at Georgetown University in Jews. as those who “believe it is their Ronald Reagan, who would win the embassy move, Jerry Falwell junior, Washington. 18 November 25, 2018 Economy

Turkey’s government faces Briefs Turkey warns against gas slow growth, record inflation exploration with Thomas Seibert withdrawn approximately $20 bil- lion from Turkey in the first nine Greek Cypriot months of the year. government Istanbul Ordinary Turks are feeling the pinch. Car sales were off 76% last Turkey warned energy compa- he Turkish government is month, compared to October 2017, nies on November 18 against work- struggling with record infla- after an annual drop of almost 70% ing with the Greek Cypriot govern- tion, rising unemployment in September. Several well-known ment in carrying out exploratory T and a growing sense of crisis brands, among them retail manufac- drilling in the eastern Mediterra- among the electorate less than half turers and construction firms, have nean, saying such activities could a year before crucial local elections. applied for bankruptcy protection. damage regional stability. Inflation has soared to a yearly The downturn forced ferry company The eastern Mediterranean is be- rate of 24.5%, the highest level in IDO to stop services between several lieved to be rich in natural gas, and 15 years. The country’s central bank parts of Istanbul as of December 1. attempts to tap resources there raised its inflation expectation for Even though Erdogan insists there have revived tensions between this year from 13.4% to 23.5% and is no crisis in the country, many Turkey and Greece, which has a said 2019 will see an inflation rate of people beg to differ. In a recent poll, defence pact with the internation- 15.2%, up from an estimate of 9.3%. four out of five Turkish respondents ally recognised Greek Cypriot Unemployment stands at 11.1% but said there is a crisis. More than 46% government. is almost twice as high for the 15-24 of potential voters asked told the Turkey and Cyprus have over- age bracket, official figures indicate. Metropoll polling firm they were Defying the odds. Vendors sell dry food as people shop by a lapping claims of marine jurisdic- Trade unions say the real numbers concerned that inflation would rise banner reading “No to Inflation” in Istanbul’s Eminonu district, tion and both plan to carry out are much higher. further. on November 6. (AFP) exploratory drilling this year. The value of the country’s curren- Erdogan’s approval rating dipped cy, the lira, has recovered slightly to less than 40% for the first time (Reuters) from the sharp drop this year against since 2015, Metropoll said. In a sur- ment is unable to manage the econ- tions,” Aykan Erdemir, a senior fel- the US dollar and the euro but inves- vey for Optimar, another polling omy, while the citizen pays the bill,” low at the Foundation for Defense tors remain nervous. When Turkish company, voters named the econ- opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaro- of Democracy, a Washington think- Rohani sees Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, a omy as Turkey’s most important glu was quoted as saying. tank,” said via e-mail. “Although the son-in-law of President Recep Tayy- problem, the Hurriyet newspaper Kilicdaroglu’s Republican People’s electoral playing field is not level Iran-Iraq trade ip Erdogan, recently announced tax reported. Party (CHP) is the main rival of Er- and Turkey’s opposition parties cuts on cars, white goods and other As the economy tightens, some dogan’s ruling Justice and Develop- are lethargic and divided, Erdogan rising to $20 billion items to stir demand and fight un- of Erdogan’s trademark policies are ment Party (AKP) in local elections could still experience a significant employment, the lira took a new hit coming under scrutiny. The gov- scheduled for March 31. Although drop in votes. Iranian President Hassan Rohani because the move fanned doubts ernment of the 64-year-old veteran the local vote will not decide Erdog- “A similar economic downturn in said on November 17 Iran and Iraq about promises of fiscal discipline. leader has overseen several big in- an’s fate as president, the election 2009 also led to the AKP’s worst per- could raise annual bilateral trade frastructure projects, including new will include high-profile races, such formance within the last 15 years.” to $20 billion from the current bridges and airports, often using as mayoral elections in Istanbul, An- Erdemir, a former Turkish law- level of $12 billion. Even though Erdogan a so-called build-operate-transfer kara and Izmir. The AKP’s aim is to maker, said he expected Erdogan “Today, the economic relations insists there is no crisis in model that lets private companies hold on to mayoral posts in Istanbul to pull out all the stops to prevent between the two countries reach the country, many people build and run assets before turning and Ankara; the CHP holds the may- an economic meltdown before the about $12 billion (per year) and, beg to differ. them over to the state. oral post in Izmir. vote. through bilateral efforts, we can A recent report by Turkey’s Court The elections will be the first po- “The Turkish president will try raise this figure to $20 billion,” of Accounts said the government litical test for Erdogan since Turkey anything at his disposal to postpone Rohani said. The International Monetary Fund suffered losses of hundreds of mil- switched from a parliamentary to the imminent economic crash until said growth in Turkey will slow to lions of dollars because it had to pay a presidential form of government after the elections, including pump- (Reuters) 0.4% next year. Other observers are compensation to companies operat- this year. Erdogan says the new ing money into an economy already less optimistic. The rating agency ing two motorway bridges after they system will bring stability and eco- on steroids,” Erdemir wrote. “Tak- Moody’s predicted a 2% GDP con- generated less revenue through toll nomic prosperity but critics argue ing advantage of his near-total con- Libya sees currency traction for 2019. Aykut Erdogdu, payments than expected. the opposite is the case. trol of media, he will also try to de- an opposition lawmaker, told the The opposition says the govern- “The dismal state of the Turkish flect the electorate’s attention from stabilising next year BirGun newspaper that central bank ment has failed to steer the country economy will be Erdogan’s key chal- economic issues to polemics around figures showed that investors had in the right direction. “The govern- lenge in the upcoming local elec- Turkey’s deep cultural cleavages.” Libya expects to end a long-run- ning liquidity crisis by early 2019 Viewpoint as a foreign currency tax helps the official and black market exchange rates converge at less than 3 dinars to the dollar, the Tripoli-based deputy prime minister said on Abu Dhabi’s plans to become a natural gas net exporter November 20. The chasm between the two hammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, change for the foreseeable future. appraisal followed by a 40-year rates has enabled armed groups ADNOC’s growth plan will in- At a press conference in late Sep- production phase. and their allies to reap vast profits clude “its gas strategy to [enable tember, Kaabi stated that “the ADNOC intends to produce to fund the conflict that has en- Jareer Elass ADNOC to] become self-sufficient contract to provide the UAE with enough gas in the coming dec- gulfed Libya since 2011. Mean- and a net gas exporter.” Qatari gas extends to 2032.” ade for the UAE to become gas while ordinary Libyans, reliant on ADNOC also reported the ADNOC Group CEO Sultan independent and, in the process, imports of everything from milk bu Dhabi is flexing recent discovery of 15 trillion Ahmed al-Jaber emphasised at Abu Dhabi will become a net gas to cars, have seen living standards extra financial cubic feet of gas, adding 7.1% to the November 4 Abu Dhabi SPC exporter with expanded liquefied crumble. muscle to develop existing reserves. meeting the UAE’s “historic gas natural gas (LNG) export capa- The Tripoli government hopes its natural gas For the past decade, Qatar self-sufficiency strategy marks an bilities. As the UAE’s domestic its currency reforms will help production has been supplying as much as important new accelerated phase power demand has expanded restore confidence in the economy capacity, which 2 Bcf/d from its giant offshore in the delivery of ADNOC’s 2030 rapidly in recent years, it has si- and chart a way out of the turmoil ultimatelyA could lead the Gulf North Field to the UAE and Oman growth strategy.” Al-Jaber is also phoned off gas that ADNOC could by putting the armed groups out of producer to become a net gas through the Dolphin Energy the UAE minister of state. have been exporting as LNG. business. exporter and free the UAE from Pipeline, a 364km subsea line ADNOC is moving forward with Abu Dhabi has a sole long-term gas imports. linking Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas its Ghasha mega sour gas project LNG client in Japan’s Jera, a joint (Reuters) Much attention is being paid to processing operations to the that involves developing the venture between Chubu Electric newly announced plans by the Taweelah receiving facilities in offshore Ghasha, Hail and Dalma Power and Tokyo Electric Power, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company the UAE. That piped gas currently sour gas fields located in Abu and ADNOC also has a number Iraq to unify (ADNOC) to raise its crude pro- meets 30% of electricity needs Dhabi’s Al Dhafra region. Collec- of short- and medium-term LNG duction capacity to 5 million bar- within the seven-member UAE tively, these fields are estimated supply arrangements with other customs procedures rels per day (bpd) by 2030 from federation. to hold multiple trillions of cubic customers. current 3.5 million bpd. However, The Abu Dhabi government feet of recoverable gas and when In addition to ADNOC’s an- with Kurdistan ADNOC’s gas goals are perhaps established the Dolphin pipeline developed could produce up to nouncement of new gas discov- more geopolitically significant project in 1999, with first gas 1.5 Bcf/d of sour gas. The state eries and enhanced financial Iraq will unify customs proce- as they could spell an end to the flows into the UAE beginning firm, which expects the Gha- resources dedicated to gas dures in all of its border areas, in- longstanding piped gas supply ar- in 2007. Abu Dhabi investment sha project to come on stream exploration deals, the UAE will cluding within semi-autonomous rangement that the UAE has had vehicle and sovereign wealth around the middle of the next begin to benefit from more Kurdistan, the prime minister said with Qatar. fund Mubadala Investment decade, anticipates that enough domestic gas being available on November 21, signalling a fur- The Abu Dhabi Supreme Pe- Company is a 51% stakeholder gas will be produced from those once Abu Dhabi’s nuclear power ther thaw in ties between Baghdad troleum Council (SPC) earlier in in Dolphin Energy, the joint fields to meet 20% of the UAE’s plant at Barakah begins generat- and Erbil after a resumption of November greenlighted ADNOC’s venture that owns and operates domestic gas demand. ADNOC ing electricity late next year or Kirkuk oil flows. five-year (2019-2013) growth plan the pipeline, with US-based Oc- earlier this month signed a in 2020. When fully operational, The decision will be implement- and new integrated gas strat- cidental Petroleum Corporation concession agreement providing that facility is expected to meet ed after the federal government in egy that involves $132 billion in and France’s Total both holding Italian firm ENI with a 25% stake a quarter of the UAE’s electricity Baghdad reaches an agreement on capital expenditures to expand 24.5% shares. in the project. needs. the move with the Kurdistan Re- the state energy firm’s oil and gas Despite the strained diplomatic As part of ADNOC’s drive to All of these developments gional Government (KRG), Prime production capacities. ADNOC and economic relations between explore unconventional gas raise the question of what role, if Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi said has targeted 1 billion cubic feet Abu Dhabi and Doha over the last resources, it recently awarded any, the Dolphin Energy Pipe- during a news conference. per day (Bcf/d) of unconven- 18 months, the flow of Qatari gas a 40% contract to Total for the line will continue to have in the He said the unified procedures tional gas production by 2030 as through the Dolphin pipeline has onshore Ruwais Diyab Uncon- UAE’s medium- to long-term gas would make it easier to transport a major component of its new gas remained uninterrupted. Accord- ventional Gas Concession, with plans. imported goods and commodities. strategy. ing to Qatar Petroleum (QP) Chief ADNOC holding a 60% stake in According to a tweet from Abu Executive Saad Sherida al-Kaabi, the project. The deal covers six Jareer Elass is a Washington- (Reuters) Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mo- there are no plans for this to to seven years of exploration and based energy analyst. November 25, 2018 19 Economy Morocco expects economic dividends from high-speed train

Saad Guerraoui Game changer. French President Casablanca Emmanuel Macron (L) and orocco’s launch of Afri- Moroccan King ca’s first high-speed train Mohammed VI (LGV) is set to have a big attend the M impact on the North Afri- launch can country’s economy, said experts ceremony of and officials. Africa’s first Moroccan King Mohammed VI high-speed and French President Emmanuel train (LGV) in Macron inaugurated November 15 Tangier, on the made-in-France high-speed November 15. train, named “Al Boraq,” riding it (Reuters) from Tangier to Rabat. “Al Boraq,” derived from the Is- lamic tradition, evokes “speed and travel,” according to Morocco’s Na- tional Railway Office (ONCF). The inauguration had been planned for 2015 but was hampered by the lengthy expropriation proce- dures. Tangier will now be 2 hours, 10 minutes from Casablanca by train instead of almost 5 hours as Moroc- co modernises its public transport infrastructure to boost its interna- tional image as a leading African hub for foreign investors. The $2.4 billion investment in the high-speed line, including 200km of tracks and state-of-the-art train stations, is well below average Euro- Fakir said, adding that the LGV ity to 200,000 in 2020, according by Moroccan firms, which repre- trains pending the construction pean prices for a similar project. would also boost local tourism. to Jean-Christophe Quemard, PSA sented 50% of the overall cost of the of an LGV track, which will be Economic expert El Mehdi Fa- ONCF Director Mohamed Ra- Group’s executive vice-president for project,” said Khlie. ready by 2020. kir said the high-speed train would bie Khlie said the new railway line the Africa-Mideast region. Fakir emphasised the importance Civil society groups complained have a tremendous added value on would play a major role in expand- The LGV project positions Kenitra of the expertise gained by Moroccan that ONCF has harmed the envi- Morocco’s economy because it links ing Tanger-Med, citing the exam- as a major employment area with engineering firms from their French ronment, including through defor- the country’s most important eco- ple of French manufacturer PSA the ability to lure more foreign com- counterpart. estation, during the construction nomic engines. Group’s moving to Kenitra after ob- panies to set up their businesses in “The know-how gained by Moroc- process but ONCF insisted it has “The LGV is linking Tangier to Cas- taining guarantees from the govern- the city. can engineers will allow ONCF to reforested 2,100 hectares of forests, ablanca, Morocco’s major economic ment that the vehicles produced in France’s national railway com- expand its high-speed line business compared with 130 hectares defor- and industrial cities, going through the western city can be transported pany SNCF used its expertise in in both Morocco and Africa in the ested, in line with international en- Rabat and Kenitra, which is an to Tanger-Med port. high-speed design, construction, future,” said Fakir. vironmental standards. emerging industrial hub,” Fakir said. PSA is the second largest French operation and maintenance of LGV. The Tangier-Kenitra line will run The LGV is expected to be opera- “Doing business in Tangier will car manufacturer to have moved to However, Khlie said that 90% of the at a top speed of 320km per hour. tional by the end of November and now become much easier from Cas- Morocco after Renault, which set up work was carried out by Moroccan However, the rest of the Kenitra- 6 million passengers are expected ablanca thanks to the high-speed its factory near Tanger-Med port, civil engineering firms. Rabat-Casablanca route will take a to have used it after three years of train as it was a painful journey to Africa’s second biggest. “The ticket prices are more cost- third lane that will allow the LGV operation, easing the burden on the make because of the single railway PSA’s Kenitra plant is aiming to effective than in the West because to run at 180km per hour against often broken-down conventional line between Kenitra and Tangier,” double its annual production capac- the majority of the work was done 160km per hour for conventional trains. Viewpoint Iraq’s budgetary woes grow audible

s speculation over the Kathem al Sayadi denounced the government, notably the Sairoon referendum-induced fallout. preferred choice of bill as “draconian,” chastising Bagh- and Fatah coalitions, defended The entire country will be closely ministers to oversee dad and going as far as blaming the draft, suggesting its design fits watching, desperately awaiting Nazli Tarzi Iraq’s security and neighbouring countries for “schem- directly into wider reform plans improvement in their standards of defence institutions ing to crush economic growth,” as drafted days after Abdul-Mahdi was living. However, Iraq’s budgetary rages, the draft budget he told Dijla TV. “Basic needs are sworn in. institutions have a long way to go. billA for 2019 is proving calamitously not met,” he claimed, slamming the The operational expenses of Growth in oil revenue is not so unpopular among citizenry and par- bill as a retributive tool to punish programme implementation and much the problem as it is manag- liamentarians alike. the popular masses. how Baghdad intends to distribute ing the country’s monetary policy As Iraq’s oil production capacity Proposed projects are nearly the increase in oil income remain that guides reactions to oil market incrementally increases so does identical to those that have been vague. shocks, Iraqi analyst and member the potential to allocate funds in dormant for years and long-term How then, the Iraqi street is ask- of the now-defunct Iraq’s National high-priority areas. Experience budgetary planning is something ing, might these valuable gains in Business Council David Abdul Zayer reveals a litany of missed opportu- the government has yet to commit oil translate for the lay Iraqi whose told the Iraqi Media Network. Oil nities. However, as similar chances to. government is obliged, constitu- projections, while hopeful, will surface, will budgetary policies The alternative — a monetary tionally, to invest oil wealth to the do little to offset income losses if change under Prime Minister Adel policy able to unshackle Iraq from advantage of its people? neglect and corruption continue to Abdul-Mahdi’s government and its responsibility towards foreign This is not what has happened gnaw at Iraq’s fiscal potentialities can they drive change in a country creditors and reverse economic de- since Saddam Hussein’s toppling in and exacerbate inflationary pres- whose institutions are administered cline — does not exist. All the while, 2003. sures. poorly? Iraq’s infrastructural, educational, Forecast at $56 per barrel, should Despite flaws, any delay in the Despite his credentials as a economic and health-care needs the projected outlay change contra- ratification of next year’s budget former oil minister, Abdul-Mahdi is outrun government performance ry to expectations, few protections would be most felt by disenfran- yet to win the backing of his cabinet and its capacity to respond timely can save Iraq from the effects. chised communities and displaced and his constituency over the draft and responsibly. Beyond oil lies the key to unlock- people. Arriving at this stage, Al-Bi- budget. Another point of conten- Child poverty, unemployment ing Iraq’s potential for economic naa coalition MP Karim al-Baldawi tion is that the bill was drafted and mounting disillusionment restoration: sectoral diversification. maintains, will not happen without during the latest stages of Haider manifest themselves around every Diversifying the economy and local “robust planning and bookkeeping.” al-Abadi’s tenure as prime minister corner, on every street and house- production would soften the effects The matter lies in the hands of but passed after he left government hold, whether attention is paid or of budgetary cutbacks if resorted to a special committee, headed by in late October. the world looks the other way. in the event that oil prices drastical- Finance Minister Fuad Hussein, Budgetary allocations for the Provisions in the draft provide ly dip. Therefore, failure to evenly appointed by Abdul-Mahdi. Its Despite flaws, any next fiscal year have been slammed strong evidence of political disin- distribute oil income can only ag- sole responsibility is to redress the by prominent lawmakers as inher- terest from the state towards its gravate fiscal imbalances. absence of reconstruction expendi- delay in the ently illogical and out of sync with constituents, a risk, some analysts More than just economic oppor- ture and other contentious provi- ratification of next the needs and demands of the Iraqi said, that is greater than that posed tunities are present at this historical sions, a mission in which ordinary year’s budget would people. by the absence of a monetary moment; the chance for Baghdad Iraqis and civil society have little Federal decisions and the un- policy. As alarming is the exclusion and the semi-autonomous Kurdis- say. be most felt by derpinning philosophy guiding the of territories whose landscapes tan region of Iraq to mend fences. disenfranchised draft, as some criticised, offer no were heavily pummelled in battles Talks of a deal between both sides Nazli Tarzi is an independent real solutions to the economic hur- against the Islamic State from next are under way, which could boost journalist whose writings and films communities and dles inhibiting domestic growth. year’s expenditures. output and allow Kirkuk oil field focus on Iraq’s ancient history and displaced people. State of Law parliamentarian Proponents in Abdul-Mahdi’s production to resume following the contemporary political scene. 20 November 25, 2018 Society

Fears of ‘language war’ in Algeria over status of Tamazight

Lamine Ghanmi

Tunis

erber students in Algeria’s mountainous Kabylie re- gion walked out of school B to protest the government’s neglect of their native tongue, Tamazight. Protests began October 22 at a high school in Beni-Zmenzer, 15km south of Tizi Ouzou, Kabylie’s main city, and spread to schools in Tizi Ouzou, Bejaia and Bouira prov- inces. Students walked out of class and chanted slogans demanding Tamazight classes, which are not offered in all areas of the country. “If there is no Tamazight every- where, no to the other language here,” the students chanted, refer- ring to Arabic. The pro-Tamazight demon- strations occurred after parents in the eastern Arab-speaking Ji- jel province pulled their children out of schools to protest required Tamazight classes. Their frustration was fuelled by Islamist parliament member Naima Salhi, who posted a video on social media lamenting the spread of the language. “My daughter is a student at a private school where most students are (from) Kabylie,” said Salhi. “Out of innocence, she began learning Tamazight. I did not oppose that since teaching the language has become mandatory at school but I told her: ‘If I hear you uttering one word in Tamazight at home, I will Difficult balance? The Berber flag flutters next to the national Algerian flag in Ath Mendes, south of Tizi-Ouzou. (AFP) kill you.’” In Algeria, Islamists defend Arabic as the dominant language, varieties” and established the “Al- differences,” said Algerian political Boualem Messoudi, a teacher of being carried away into a language pointing out that it is the language gerian academy for the Tamazight writer Samir Leslous, adding that mathematics and Tamazight writ- war,” the group said in a statement. of the Quran. Reformists, however, language.” there was a level of outrage “not ing, said the language protests Algeria’s approach to Tamazight say promoting Tamazight is key to However, analysts said the Al- seen since the ‘Berber spring’ in “stemmed from a feeling of injus- could be a test for Morocco and preserving the country’s Berber gerian government’s official meas- April 1980.” tice among Berber youth.” Libya, which have their own sub- identity and fostering multicultur- ures to promote Tamazight did not “Arabic was imposed on all Alge- stantial Berber communities. alism, individual rights and decen- translate to change on the local lev- In Algeria, Islamists rians while Tamazight is not pro- In 2011, the Tamazight language tralisation. Government leaders el and that the quality Tamazight moted and generalised across all made a revival in both Morocco have lent credence to this view, textbooks and teachers was lack- defend Arabic as the Algeria,” he said. and Libya. Morocco recognised with Algerian President Abdelaziz ing. dominant language, The moderate Berber movement Tamazight as an official language Bouteflika blaming colonisation for They noted that the recent pro- pointing out that it is the Rally for Kabylie, however, warned and Berber activists in Libya in- destroying Algerian culture, iden- tests showed more should be done language of the Quran. Berber speakers against attempts troduced Tamazight textbooks, tity, language and traditions. to reduce tensions between ethnic to impose Tamazight on all Algeri- dictionaries, magazines and radio In 2002, three years after Boutef- groups and encourage tolerance That year, Berber protesters ans. stations. lika took office, Algeria changed its and multiculturalism. demanded an end to what they “It is healthy and salutary to say However, a national committee constitution to name Tamazight as “It is a worrying development called the “Arab-Islamic apart- loudly and clearly that enough is drafting Libya’s constitution ig- an “official and national” language because the protests question the heid,” which they said jeopard- enough with the provocations, nored calls to officially recognise alongside Arabic. The government principle of pluralism, including ised their language and identity. insults and disparaging of Berber the language, which had been re- vowed to “promote and develop linguistic plurality and tolerance At least 116 people died during identity and Tamazight language pressed during the 42-year rule of the language in all its linguistic and accepting others despite their the demonstrations. but it is urgent and crucial to avoid Muammar Qaddafi.

Viewpoint New project for religious reform in Morocco focuses on Hadith

oroccan King tion and general religious culture. Mohammed VI Ten years ago, as the Moham- has initiated a med VI radio and television Idris al-Kanbouri religious reform Quran channels commenced project focused broadcasting, the state revived on the Prophet the scientific chairs, a tradition MMohammad’s sayings — the long held at the Al Qarawiyyin Hadith — and aimed at protect- mosque. These teaching chairs ing them from manipulation by were public lessons in which extremists who would use distor- theology and religious practice tions for dubious purposes or by were discussed. The lectures were those who doubt the Sunna. broadcast by TV and radio sta- Called Al-durus Al-hadithia tions, reaching millions of people. (Lessons in the Hadith), the If the new project represents an reforms come more than a decade extension of what has been con- after restructuring of the religious structed in Morocco’s religious field initiative in Morocco. The reform edifice, it would provide project is overseen by the Higher a channel linking the scholarly Scientific Council and Dar Al- class with the general public. Hadeeth Al-Husayniyah, affiliated In 2009, King Mohammed with Al Qarawiyyin University in VI announced the Charter of Fez, and concerns all aspects of Scholars, which was based on two the Hadith. pillars. The first concerned train- The lessons, delivered by Ha- ing imams and religious counsel- dith specialists, are to be broad- A fresh perspective. The courtyard of Al Qarawiyyin Mosque in Fez. lors so they could communicate cast on a weekly basis on variety (AP) with lay people. The second pillar of outlets, including the Moham- focused on providing proper reli- med VI television channel for the gious education to all citizens. Holy Quran, the Mohammed VI channels for the Holy Quran, an project is considered widely suc- Morocco’s theological tradi- radio station for the Holy Quran, initiative seeking to ease access cessful. The radio and TV stations tions and practices provided the The new project the internet and social media. The to proper religious awareness and have attracted large audiences ideological framework for these lessons will be interactive, allow- to educate people about pressing in Morocco and other African initiatives, which were essential would provide a ing the audience to ask questions. religious issues. countries. in combating religious extrem- channel linking the The project is the continuation Religious ignorance provides For nearly two decades, Mo- ism. of a programme started in 2005 extremists the opportunity to rocco has been engaged in a battle scholarly class with with the establishment of the Mo- distorted concepts, particularly to eliminate religious extremism, Idris al-Kanbouri is a Moroccan the general public. hammed VI radio and television among young people. The 2005 from clerical sermons to educa- writer. November 25, 2018 21 Society

Gun shops thrive in Baghdad, further aggravating insecurity

Oumayma Omar and weapons for his employees af- ter receiving threats targeting his car shop in the Baghdad neighbour- Baghdad hood of al-Nahda. “It is a risky business and we of- he wide-spread possession ten encounter people who try to of arms in Iraq does not blackmail us or threaten our fami- raise eyebrows; however lies. The state is unable to protect T the legalisation of weap- us from gangs that are operating ons sales that resulted in a thriving freely without any deterrence or business is a new development in a punishment,” Adel said. country that is largely lawless. He said he bought several li- In the Baghdad neighbourhood censed weapons that he and his of Mansour, gun shops have been employees always carry. opening since a law was passed Al Maridi market in the heart of last August allowing citizens to Madinat al Sadr, a Shia-inhabited own and carry handguns, semi- district of Baghdad, is considered automatic rifles and other assault a hub for all types of illegal weap- weapons after obtaining official au- ons, both light and heavy. It is not thorisation. the only place where illegal arms “The mechanism for buying are available. Other popular and weapons has been carefully stud- low-income districts controlled ied and abides by the rules of the by tribal leaders have their own Interior Ministry,” says Abu Sajjad, weapons markets. The authorities a salesman in the Nisr al Sahara are seemingly incapable of raiding (desert eagle) gun shop who asked these markets, which are protected to be identified by his nickname. by religious parties and their armed “The sale cannot be concluded militias. before the client obtains an official Iraqi sociologist Ali Taher Ham- permit from the Ministry of Inte- moud blasted the government’s rior. He should be above 25, must decision to allow legal arms posses- have a clear criminal record and sion and sale as “a wrong and un- no suspected links to terrorism or fortunate move.” criminal gangs,” Abu Sajjad said. “By doing that, the government Many of his clients are wealthy conceded to the street at the ex- Lost generation. Syrian children wait to leave their refugee camp in the Lebanese city of Arsal, last July. (AFP) businessmen or tradesmen who pense of enforcing the law. Gun seek weapons for self-defence and culture is a big problem in Iraq and to protect their businesses. the mentality of using weapons to “The biggest demand is for indi- settle disagreements has torn apart vidual handguns, specifically the the social fabric,” Hammoud said. Croatian HS, in addition to hunting “This law is a step backward. En- rifles and semi-automatic weap- suring security is the duty of the Refugee crisis poses ons. Women also use weapons, state and not the duty of the regu- which they keep in their hand- lar and harmless citizen who is try- bags for their personal security. ing to protect himself,” Hammoud The matter is not restricted to men said. “There are 750,000 security only. Everybody needs to feel safe,” members in the country who are long-term threats Abu Sajjad said. trained to enforce law and secu- Law 51 allowing legal arms pos- rity. Moreover, the government can session in Iraq came into effect last hire the services of security compa- summer. The authorities said it was nies which are licensed, properly aimed at curbing illegal weapons trained and disciplined.” to the Middle East sales and increasing control of gun “Arms should be exclusively ownership through regulation. restricted to the state’s security “It is true that the wide spread of forces. The wide spread of weapons Thomas Frank seven years of civil war have led to international community by not- weapons possession will have an will be an additional reason for the 6 million people fleeing the coun- ing that the refugee crises of the effect on the security conditions armed militias to jeopardise secu- try and another 6 million becom- 1990s were handled much bet- in the country necessitating more rity under the cover of legitimate Washington ing internally displaced in Syria. ter following the dissolution of government control regulations. licensing,” Hammoud added. “We have millions of refugees the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. Nonetheless, licensing gun shops Passers-by who stop in front of he refugee crisis in the and IDPs who lost seven years,” “But in the 2000s, we are not near where people can get arms in a le- Abu Sajjad’s shop window are often Middle East threatens Awad said. “A child who was 6 or 7 there,” Awad said. “The average gitimate way will help curb illegal amazed by the arsenal on display. long-term damage to the at the beginning of that war today displacement now continues for 17 sales,” Abu Sajjad added. “One reason for the lack of secu- T region’s development and is 13 and did not have an educa- years.” After the toppling of Saddam rity and stability is the prevalence to breed a new generation of radi- tion. There are children who were Syria, Yemen and Iraq face ma- Hussein in 2003, the illegal weap- of weapons, which are used to re- calised youth, the head of the Mid- 12 or 13 at the beginning of the jor challenges in resettling the ons trade flourished across the solve the many problems plaguing dle East and North Africa Bureau war and are 18 and lost that very millions of refugees and displaced country. Looted guns from ran- the Iraqi society,” said 26-year-old of the United Nations’ refugee important six years of their lives. people. Yemen, with 2.1 million sacked police stations and military Ahmad Sami as he pointed to the agency said. They are graduating into the world displaced, faces “one of the most bases were sold in streets and pub- gun shop. with no junior high or high school horrible famines of our time, may- lic areas. Previously, gun sales were “How on earth could the govern- degrees.” be of the last few centuries,” Awad restricted to firearms for hunting ment allow people to carry weap- Amin Awad, A generation of young people said. and sport. ons when it is supposed to curb it UNHCR director for the without education and hope will Syria needs to guarantee return- Pistol prices in Abu Sajjad’s shop in view of the problems and en- Middle East and North impair Syria’s development and ing residents physical security, range from $1,000 to $5,000, while croachment on security that take Africa Bureau create “a breeding ground for radi- education and health services and hunting rifles and Kalashnikov as- place daily? This is unacceptable in “We cannot empty the Middle calisation and war,” Awad said. faces major obstacles because “the sault rifles can be bought for as little a country where the rule of law is so East of its minorities. That’s an When workers with the UN High destruction is huge.” as $600 to up to $6,000, depending weak,” Sami added. easy way out and we should Commissioner for Refugees sur- on the brand and manufacturing fight that in every way.” veyed Syrian refugees who fled A generation of youth origin, he said. Oumayma Omar, based in the Middle East for Europe, the One of Abu Sajjad’s clients who Baghdad, is a contributor to the An estimated 40% of the world’s reason they cited most frequently without education and asked to be identified as Adel said Culture and Society sections of 68 million refugees and internally for leaving was the lack of educa- hope will impair Syria’s he decided to buy a personal gun The Arab Weekly. displaced persons (IDPs) are either tion for their children. “They were development and create in or from the Middle East, even coming from countries that had a “a breeding ground for though the region totals 5% of the 93% literacy rate. It was killing the radicalisation and war.” world’s population, Amin Awad, parents to see their children sitting UNHCR director for the Middle — sitting — in the same tent and In Iraq, some of the 3.3 million East and North Africa Bureau, said not going to school. They picked displaced people have begun to in an impassioned speech at the up their children and started walk- return but the country must figure Middle East Institute. ing,” Awad said. out how to welcome back religious “This is a huge number — the Awad’s brutal assessment came minorities, such as Christians and biggest displacement of our time,” as the United Nations and the in- Yazidis, who were removed from Awad said at the institute’s annual ternational community struggled their long-time homelands. conference in November. to negotiate an end to the Syrian “Evacuating Christian minori- Wars in Syria, Iraq, Libya and war and as fighting continues in ties to Western Europe and far be- Yemen that have forced millions Yemen, Libya and the Palestinian yond is not a solution. These peo- of people to leave their homes territories and the Islamic State ple have been there for thousands “wreak havoc on the development (ISIS) begins a resurgence in Iraq of years. They have a history. They of these countries,” Awad said. and Syria. Middle East refugees have a heritage. They have prop- The wars caused “displacement flooded Turkey, Jordan and Leba- erties and they have treasures,” of generations [of people] that are non and many went to Europe, Awad said. “We cannot empty at a very productive age,” he said. causing political tensions across the Middle East of its minorities. Displacement is particularly the continent. That’s an easy way out and we grave in Syria, where more than Awad appeared to chastise the should fight that in every way.” Risky business. Nisr al-Sahara gun shop in Baghdad. (Oumayma Omar) 22 November 25, 2018 Culture

Merits and challenges of translation according to Adonis

Susannah Tarbush damning in his criticisms of the cur- rent state of Arab culture and poli- tics. He said fragmentation of iden- London tity in the Arab-Islamic world was turning into “devastation that is al- s this the time for transla- most total, with neighbours killing tion and is translation a sec- their neighbours, friends turning “ ond act of creation?” That into enemies and some people im- I was the challenging title ploring their foreign friends to oc- of the third Saif Ghobash Banipal cupy and dominate their countries Prize Lecture, delivered by the re- and submitting to their will.” nowned Syrian-born poet, philoso- In the second part of his lecture, pher and critic Adonis to a packed Adonis focused on “the form of auditorium in the British Library on translation that is most difficult, November 9. most intricate and on which tastes The 88-year-old writer held the and opinions might vary most, and audience spellbound in a 45-minute also the form that I think I know presentation that reflected his fa- most about — I mean the translation mous gifts as a pioneering poet, of poetry, especially as, to say the translator and author. He has writ- least, poetry is the high point in the ten more than 50 collections of po- Arab cultural heritage.” etry, criticism and essays, has been Adonis declared that a translated translated into many languages and poem is the result of linguistic de- has translated various poets into Ar- struction. “So the question in the Cult novel. A copy of “Season of Migration to the North” by Sudanese writer Tayeb Salih. (Twitter) abic. He has won numerous awards translation of poetry is this: can and has regularly been nominated we give meaning to this destruc- for the Nobel Prize in Literature. tion? The answer is yes, and that is While Adonis delivered his lec- the task of translators. They are the ture in Arabic, Jonathan Wright read other creative artists who breathe his translation of it over a headsets life into this ruin and give it flesh system for Anglophone audience and blood, a soul, a heart, and life.” Banipal magazine’s members. Adonis’s powerful ora- He described his translations of tory and remarkably youthful spirit other poets as being “another way belied his years. of writing poetry in Arabic I prefer Adonis reminded us that “trans- to say that I did not translate this lation lay at the foundations of the poetry so much as I welcomed it revealing list of 100 European Renaissance and was the into my home, opening the arms of first building block in the open- the Arabic language to it.” A chal- mindedness of that age.” The trans- lenge is that “in translation, Arabic lators in Baghdad “paved the way poetry loses the music of the lan- for that age through their transla- guage and its associations and the tions of Greek philosophy into Ara- images it evokes. It loses the unique best Arabic novels bic, especially the works of Plato rhythms, which cannot be repli- and Aristotle,” Adonis said. cated by the rhythms of any other Samuel Shimon (Rama wal-Tinnin) by Egypt’s Ed- Cairo – the setting for the three He argued passionately and per- language.” war al-Kharrat at ninth; and “Gate novels. Through the lens of one suasively for the importance of During the lively question and of the Sun” (Bab al-Shams) by family, that of Al-Sayyid Ahmad translation in a modern age where answer session that followed his London Lebanese novelist Elias Khoury in Abd al-Jawad, a well-off merchant “despite everything that technol- lecture, Adonis was joined on stage tenth place. in Cairo, the trilogy traces the tur- ogy — the technology of things and by Emeritus Professor Paul Starkey, n recent years the writing of In 2001, the Arab Writers’ Union bulent period in Egypt’s history the technologies of globalisation — chair of the Banipal Trust for Arab Arab novels has increased sig- (AWU) released a list of the “top spanning from 1919, the year of has done in the way of bringing peo- Literature, and by Wen-chin Ouy- nificantly, coupled with the 105″ Arabic novels of the 20th cen- the revolution against the British ple together, the differences remain ang, professor of Arabic and Com- I establishment of many awards tury. Banipal’s new list shares 44 colonial powers, to 1944 and the extensive and profound.” parative Literature at the School celebrating Arabic literature – the titles with the AWU’s list, but in- close of the second world war. Human identity is a “vertical ex- of Oriental and African Studies, novel in particular. cludes 35 novels that did not make In “For Bread Alone,” published istential dimension” but for one University of London, who acted The London-based Banipal, a it to that list and 21 titles pub- in Arabic in 1982, Choukri presents reason or another, technology has as interpreter. Adonis was a warm literary magazine dedicated to the lished after 2001, representing a an astonishing and candid ac- helped to obscure this, Adonis said. and witty presence as he responded promotion of contemporary Arab new generation of novelists. count of his early life in Morocco. “Humans now know how to use the to questions, and there was often literature through translations in The latter include “Franken- Beginning from the famine, which horizon, but they are more ignorant laughter from delighted audience English, recently published a list stein in Baghdad” by Iraqi Ahmed drove his family from their home about finding out how to open the members. of the best 100 Arabic novels se- Saadawi, ranked 15; “Papa Sartre” in the Rif to Tangier, the author human horizon that goes hand in Interest in Adonis’s poetry in lected by 100 authors, critics, aca- by Iraqi novelist Ali Bader, ranked describes the struggle to survive hand with the depth.” English translation remains high demics, intellectuals and transla- 22; “In Praise of Hatred” by award amid a society rife with danger Translation creates “a universal and his Saif Ghobash Banipal Prize tors. winning Syrian novelist Khaled and poverty, not to mention the cultural time in which people come Lecture may well have boosted it The books have been ranked ac- Khalifa, ranked 44; and “The violent rages of his vicious father. to know each other and in which further. Last year saw the publica- cording to the number of nomina- Bamboo Stalk” by Kuwaiti novel- Unable to find steady work, he each language discovers its creative tion by Yale University Press of his tions received for each title, with ist Saud Alsanousi, ranked 47. plunges into the simultaneously presence in other languages.” It is 2012 work “Concerto al-Quds” in “Season of Migration to the North” thrilling and horrifying depths of “another form of creation, and so it translation by Khaled Mattawa. Ihe (Mawsim al-Hijra ila al-Shamal) a world of sex, crime and drugs, is inescapably a cultural act. People interest is not confined to Adon- by Sudanese writer Tayeb Salih “Season of Migration to until a chance encounter in prison understand themselves well only is’s relatively recent works. A new ranking first with 61 nominations. the North” (Mawsim changes the course of his life. to the extent that they understand translation, by Kareem James Abu- Salih’s other works that made it to In “The Secret Life of Saeed the others well, so translating other Zeid, of Adonis’s 1961 third poetry the list include “The Wedding of al-Hijra ila al-Shamal) by Pessoptimist” (1974), Habiby pow- people is an ideal way to discover collection “Songs of Mihyar the Zein,” “Daw al-Bayt” (Bandarshah Sudanese writer Tayeb erfully depicts the political reality one’s self… The Other is no longer Damascene” is due out in the first I) and “Doumat wad Hamid.” Salih ranked first with 61 of the post-1948 Palestinian ex- simply someone to converse, in- half of next year from New York Egyptian writer Naguib Mah- nominations. perience in this modern classic. teract and reciprocate with. It goes publisher New Directions. fouz’s “Cairo Trilogy” (al-Thu- Saeed, a gullible and comic charac- beyond that, to become one of the lathiyya) came second with 41 ter, is a Palestinian who becomes elements that make up one’s self.” Susannah Tarbush is an occasional nominations. Twelve other novels Published in 1966, “Season of an Israeli citizen and informer, Adonis was characteristically contributor to The Arab Weekly. by Mahfouz also figured on the Migration to the North” is de- narrating his experience of the suf- list, including “Children of the scribed as the most important fering and hardships encountered Alley,” which ranked fifth, “The Arab novel of the twentieth cen- by Arabs in Israel through a series Harafish,” “The Thief and the tury and depicts the lasting effects of letters to an Israeli newspaper. Dogs,” “Midaq Alley,” “Miramar” of colonialism on contemporary “Children of the Alley” (1959) and “Adrift on the Nile.” Sudanese society. Set in 1960s Su- was originally published as a Third on the list is “For Bread dan, events are narrated by an un- newspaper serial. It is considered Alone” (Al-Khubz al-Hafi) by Mo- named man who, after studying as one of the most controversial roccan Mohamed Choukri, which for some time in England, returns of Mahfouz’s works. It weaves to- received 37 nominations, while to his native village in rural Sudan gether the stories of the inhabit- “The Secret Life of Saeed the Pes- with hopes of using his Western ants of an imaginary 19th-century soptimist,” by Israeli Arab writer education to some benefit. How- alley in Cairo, ruled over by the Emile Habiby ranked fourth, re- ever, the narrator is intrigued by tyrannical Gebelawi. The rein- ceiving 36 nominations. an enigmatic new face in the vil- vention of Abrahamic religious Also among the top ten on the lage, Mustafa Sa’eed, becoming figures in the protagonists of the list are “Zayni Barakat” by Egypt’s aware, as the latter’s alarming past novel, such as Moses and Prophet Gamal al-Ghitani, which ranked unfolds, that their experiences Mohammad, has earned it both sixth with 34 nominations; “Cities are more connected than he could criticism and praise as a striking of Salt” by Saudi novelist Abdel- have imagined. metaphor for the interlinked his- rahman Munif, ranking seventh Mahfouz’s “Cairo Trilogy” tories of Judaism, Christianity and with 33 nominations; “In Search (1956-57) is one of the most cel- Islam. of Walid Masoud” (Al-Bahth an ebrated works of his career. It Walid Masoud) by Palestinian au- comprises “Palace Walk”; “Palace Samuel Shimon is an Iraqi Passionate words. Syrian-born poet, philosopher and critic Adonis thor Jabra Ibrahim Jabra in eighth of Desire” and “Sugar Street,” all writer and editor of the literary during the third Saif Ghobash Banipal Prize Lecture, on place; “Rama and the Dragon” of which are real street names in magazine Banipal. November 9. (Susannah Tarbush) November 25, 2018 23 Culture Advocates seek preservation of Arab New York

Noah Habeeb Rediscovering history. Syrian school New York children in New York, early n the early 20th century, within 1900s. view of the Statue of Liberty and (Washington blocks from Wall Street, an im- Street Historical I migrant enclave known as Little Society) Syria thrived in lower Manhattan. Since 2011, the Washington Street Historical Society has worked to memorialise and preserve the Arab presence and literary output of Little Syria, which was home to dozens of Arabic-language newspapers and to writers Khalil Gibran, Ameen Rihani and Elia Abu Madi. The society hosts walking tours, maintains an artefact collection and advocates for historic landmark des- ignations from the city. Yet, Little Syria, just more than a mile from Manhattan’s Chinatown and Little Italy and abutting a heav- ily trafficked touristic zone, remains relatively unrecognised, a historic district buried beneath layers of ur- ban development. In October, Society President Todd Fine led a group of mostly Arabs and Arab Americans on a walking tour through Little Syria, which the soci- ety also refers to as the Lower West Side, breathing life into a neighbour- hood of construction cranes, finan- Syria far precede the tragedy of 9/11, that is a focus for development,” The city will soon redesign Eliza- known during the 2010 debate over cial institutions and major thorough- however. In fact, the life and death Fine said. beth Berger Park, at the mouth of the the proposed Park51 development, fares, with descriptions of coffee of Little Syria are intertwined with Three adjoining buildings make Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel, to incor- known to many as the “ground zero shops, shisha and Syrian pastries. many key processes in 20th century up the best evidence of Little Syria: a porate public art by Sara Ouhaddou, mosque.” Conservative bloggers and Fine’s tours paint a portrait of Arab US urban history. five-storey tenement, the last build- a French artist of Moroccan origin, like-minded politicians erupted over life in early 20th century Manhattan Arab assimilation, spatial reloca- ing of its type on Washington Street; whose design will use Arabic callig- the proposed Islamic prayer space through the works of mahjar writers, tion into the suburbs and immigra- the six-storey Downtown Commu- raphy to memorialise writers of the and cultural institution. photographs that capture Arab street tion legislation that virtually banned nity House, once a place that assist- mahjar press. “[The Ottoman] mosque is about life and more than a pinch of neces- Arab immigration from the early ed immigrants; and Saint George’s the same distance from the World sary imagination from participants. 1920s until the mid-1960s left Lit- Church, a former Melkite church Trade Centre site as that ‘ground Physical remnants of Little Syria are tle Syria without many Syrians — or now unceremoniously occupied by a Through the Washington zero mosque,’” Fine said. “Imagine scant. Lebanese, Palestinians, Armenians, Chinese restaurant and bar. Street Historical Society’s if at the time people had known this Since 9/11, the Lower West Side has Greeks and Monrovians, who also While Saint George’s Church, with work, recognition of Little story.” been in a state of constant construc- called the neighbourhood home. its notable terracotta facade and re- Syria has improved. Many stories from Little Syria are tion with megaprojects such as the Controversial development known lief of Saint George, is a designated hidden yet within reach. Amid ris- World Trade Centre redevelopment as urban renewal — the destruction landmark, the other two buildings Scholars and advocates are redis- ing nativism in the United States, and the Goldman Sachs headquar- of neighbourhoods to make way for are unprotected. covering Arab histories of the Lower such stories offer an account of Arab ters. To many, the resulting changes the Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel and “We thought if we just tell this West Side in untapped or untrans- belonging — however gradual or con- did not benefit average New Yorkers. the World Trade Centre complex — story, we’ll figure out some way to lated archives. A recently found New tested — that remains relevant. “The World Trade Centre recon- left Lower Manhattan depleted of save these buildings,” Fine said, “but York Sun article from 1912 head- struction became something about residents and physical traces of Lit- even despite all this attention, we lined “Mohammadens Now Have a Noah Habeeb is a writer in New York corporate and luxury real estate, tle Syria. kept getting rejected by the city.” Place of Worship Here,” describes a who has researched and written which is not what it was supposed to “Anything involving landmark Still, through the society’s work, mosque in Little Syria operated by about Arab-American communities. be,” Fine said. preservation [is] especially hard recognition of Little Syria has im- the Ottoman consulate. His grandfather emigrated from The decline and erasure of Little when you have a neighbourhood proved. Unfortunately, this history was un- Lebanon to Little Syria in the 1920s. BOOK REVIEW Looking at Muslims through a ‘Journey into Europe’

study by the through shared bloodlines and proach towards Muslims. legal passports but know they may Competence Centre held together by “asabiyyah,” or The fact that Muslim players on never be accepted in society be- for Right-Wing social cohesion, is lost with migra- Germany’s winning 2014 World cause of their religious and ethnic Dunia El-Zobaidi Extremism and tion to the West, Ahmed writes Cup team refrained from sing- backgrounds. Democracy “Families disintegrate over time ing the German national anthem In France, the consequences of Research said that and the new generation, in par- is a big indicator that they don’t colonisation are apparent even IslamophobiaA is on the rise in ticular, is left with only bits and feel they belong to the German today. pieces of asabiyyah. This loss of identity because being Muslim There, despite having the largest Europe and that more than 44% of German poll respondents said asabiyyah means that individuals they were most likely prejudiced Muslim population in Europe, Muslims should be banned from are no longer rooted in their past and discriminated against, Ahmed about twice the size of Britain’s, immigrating, compared to 36.5% tribal identity and if they have contends. in 2016 there was only one person in 2014. not acquired a strong European He said: “It would not be dif- with a Muslim background in the Akbar Ahmed, Ibn Khaldun identity, they will be confused ficult to argue that (German) 577-member National Assembly, chair of Islamic Studies at Ameri- about which norms and values Chancellor (Angela) Merkel has France’s directly elected lower can University in Washington, to follow. Without guidance, the shown Hamlet-like tendencies in house of parliament. Following travelled across Europe for four individual will be vulnerable, can dealing with the refugee influx as the 2017 election, the number of years with researchers interview- be misled and even commit acts of she wavers between moments of Muslim deputies had increased ing Muslims and non-Muslims. His violence,” Ahmed says. doubt and cold indifference, tell- to 15. book “Journey into Europe: Islam, The second chapter outlines ing a young Arab refugee girl that In the book, Salah Bariki, a Mus- Immigration and Identity” shows how contradictory Germans she has to leave the country and lim official in the Marseilles city their findings. can be like Hamlet in their ap- then opening her arms to warmly government, described the French In the first chapter, Ahmed says welcome a million migrants even Muslim community as “anarchy” the main problem facing Muslims at great political cost to herself.” and discussed the problem of in Europe is that they are not seen Another chapter focuses on imams. He said: “Everyone can as having European identity nor South Asian Muslims in the United proclaim himself to be imam. Most have they contributed anything Kingdom and Muslim immigrants of the imams do not speak French to Western civilisation. Basically, in France. but they don’t speak real Arabic Muslims have no right to be in The first generation in the Unit- either. They speak bad French and Europe. ed Kingdom had few expectations bad Arabic. Many people don’t He argues that even as destitute and tended to keep their heads really understand what they say… refugees, Muslims have not learnt down. They understood they were Besides, the imams are not very their lessons. They bring their not equal to British citizens and intellectual.” sectarian and ethnic rivalries with life in the United Kingdom would “Journey into Europe” is crucial them. It is a formidable challenge not be easy. The second and third in understanding the issues Mus- “Journey into to understand European Muslims, generations do not accept second- lims face in different European Europe” is crucial in their identity, leadership patterns, class citizenship so they are in a countries and offers important ad- their religious and political play- dilemma: They are happy to have vice on building a better relation- understanding the ers, the role of imams, the position ship between refugees and their issues Muslims face of mothers and women in the Crucial questions. Cover of Akbar host countries. in different family and their relations with the Ahmed’s “Journey into Europe: government and general public. Islam, Immigration and Identity.” Dunia El-Zobaidi is a regular Arab European countries. The nature of tribal society, Weekly contributor in London. 24 November 25, 2018 Travel www.thearabweekly.com

Agenda

Cairo: Through November 29

The 40th Cairo International Film Festival takes place at the Opera House over ten days. The programme includes a special section titled “Arab Female Directors” in addition to world cinema projections, seminars, workshops, debates and trib- utes.

Dubai: November 29-30

Bao Music and Dance Fest is an event celebrating Chinese cul- ture through music, dance, fash- ion and food. More than a dozen electronic dance music DJs will be present during the event.

Marrakech: December 1-29 Berber hamlets near Imlil. (Saad Guerraoui) The 11th edition of Marrakech Sun Festival will host local and international performers in a Hiking in Morocco’s High Atlas series of live music concerts, be it alternative, urban, electronic and world music. Performances will be held at several venues throughout the city, in addition mountains offers dazzling experience to art exhibitions, workshops and lectures. Saad Guerraoui A Berber ble salad and tinned mackerel. As Moroccan starving as we were, we wiped out Tozeur: woman, our dishes! December 5-8 Imlil wearing We walked another four hours traditional through pine trees, green valleys The first Tozeur International have long dreamt of a hike clothing, is filled with goats and mountain Film Festival will take place in in the High Atlas mountains, seen in the creeks to reach the waterfalls just the Tunisian Sahara. The pro- known for their grandeur and town of Kelaat before dusk. gramme will include official film I beautiful landscape. I decided Mgouna at The sound of water tumbling competitions for long movies, to go for the adventure along with the foot of the down on the rocky mountains at a short movies and documen- seven other people, including High Atlas striking speed amid clouds of mist taries. Movies from Morocco, friends. mountains in was shattering in the otherwise ee- France, the United States, Tuni- We hit the road from Casablan- Morocco. (AFP) rily quiet surroundings. sia, Algeria, Lebanon, Norway, ca towards Imlil on a four-wheel We climbed few rocks to get clos- Italy, Egypt and Spain have been drive on a Friday afternoon in mid- er to the mesmerising scene that selected for the competitions. September. Imlil, which is 70km was worth every single inch of the from Marrakech, is a hiking heaven physically demanding 8-hour hike. Tunis: thanks to its surrounding moun- We headed to the beautiful val- December 8-16 tains. Most hikers flock to the lit- ley of Azzaden to spend the night tle town to climb the 4,167-metre in our sleeping bags in a homestay Carthage Theatre Days is an Mount Toubkal. after another exhausting 4-hour annual festival that showcases We reached the town in the even- walk in the darkness. The accom- plays from the Maghreb, Africa, ing and had to hire mules to take modation was not what we expect- the Middle East and Europe. In our luggage to the Dar Aymane ed because four of us had to share its 20th edition, the festival has Guesthouse, where the friendly a room. performances in Tunis and other staff made us feel at home. The The next day was much tougher parts of Tunisia. ambiance was terrific as we sat as we headed back to Imlil in the around a long dining table to share rain taking a different itinerary. Dubai: traditional Moroccan dishes for The terrain was tougher because of December 12 dinner. the muddy footpaths, which great- The next day we woke very ear- ly tested our stamina. Pianist Alexandra Dariescu takes ly to a mesmerising view of the Toubkal. were tough because, at 1,800 me- Nevertheless, the surroundings her multimedia performance of peaceful mountains and agricul- Several guesthouses in Imlil offer tres above sea level, we could hard- offered heavenly views among the “The Nutcracker and I” to the tural land. interesting 1-day or 2-day guided ly breathe. The temperature, how- almond, apple, cherry and walnut Dubai Opera stage. The Nut- Two local guides, one who was hikes but some hikers, with smart- ever, was quite mild compared to groves. We descended to Aguerssi- cracker is brought to life with also a cook, with two mules to car- phones and experience in hiking, the simmering heat in Marrakech. wal village where we had the projected hand-drawn digital ry luggage were waiting for us. We choose to navigate on their own. As we ascended, the terrain be- chance to walk on the side of a ter- animation that follows the music stopped at the town centre because We did not have to worry about came more treacherous with nar- raced roadway to Imlil, where the and engages with the pianist and one of the hikers needed boots to food because we paid 1,000 Moroc- row footpaths across the moun- 8-hour walk came to an end. a ballerina behind a see-through deal with the rough terrain await- can dirhams ($110) for an all-inclu- tains but the view got more and It was absolutely the best hike gauze screen. ing us on the way to the waterfalls. sive package for the trip, exclud- more stunning. We could see Ber- ever! Hikers from around the world, ing the Casablanca-Imlil leg of the ber hamlets scattered among the Imlil is a small village that had Abu Dhabi: armed with their walking sticks journey. foothills of the mountains. huge importance as the gateway December 17-January 1 and backpacks, were roaming the We began our hike with great Once we reached the peak of our into some of the most dazzling town centre’s streets, preparing motivation towards Tamsoult to ascent after a non-stop, 4-hour hikes of the High Atlas mountains. Al Dhafra Festival is a major for long journeys towards vari- discover the beauty of its water- walk, we took a break under a large No wonder it is ranked among regional and international event ous destinations, including Mount falls. The first few hundred metres tree to enjoy a lunch of vegeta- world’s best hiking destinations. inspired by the Emirati authen- tic Bedouin spirit. It features as many as 15 heritage activities and competitions, including a camel beauty contest, horse races, a handicrafts competition and traditional tribal chants.

Dbayeh: December 27-28

Candy Fest World Tour is an entertainment event in Lebanon that will include music per- formances, dance and special effects shows, in addition to cir- cus performances and acrobats from around the world.

We welcome submissions of calendar items related to cultural events of interest to travellers in the Middle East and North Africa.

Please send tips to: [email protected] Berber merchants wait for customers at a cattle market in Morocco’s Atlas mountains. (AP) A waterfall in Tamsoult. (Saad Guerraoui)