Company Update
Date Industry Peak Sport (1968.HK) BUY
5 Sep 2014 Sportswear Encouraging 1H14 Results; Europe Operation on The Rise Strong international sales; momentum continues for China operation Peak Sport ("Peak" thereafter)’s 1H14 turnover/ NP grew 10%/ 35% yoy
Company Update Company Closing Price Target Price to RMB1,291mn/ RMB121mn respectively amid 68% overseas sales uplift HK$2.60 and 4+ ppt improvement in GPM during the period. 1H14 ASP of Peak's HK$2.39 footwear/ apparel products rose 2%/ 20% respectively over the year as (up from HK$2.45) the group ceased to offer all special discounts to its distributors, and such revised pricing strategy contributed to the improvement in 1H14 Key Data GPM. Although Peak reported flat 1H14 sales in China, the group main- Outstanding Shares 2,098 mn tained inventories at a level of 3-4 months and its domestic retail chan- Market Cap. HK$ 5,014 mn nel continued to achieve profits by the end of 1H14. The decent invento- 6-mth Avg Daily Turnover HK$ 6.0 mn ry level, discontinued discount offers, as well as the profitability at retail 12-mth High / Low HK$ 2.42 / HK$ 1.52 level suggest that the momentum of Peak's China operation continues. 14PE 14.0x Europe operation a new growth driver PB 1.0x Peak’s European sales jumped 344% yoy/ 116% hoh to a record high of Div. yield 6.7% RMB182mn in 1H14, and is in a new uptrend after struggling with Euro- ROE 6.0% pean debt crisis hangover in 2011 and 2012. High production costs in ROA 4.7% Europe facilitate Peak to capture the low/mid end segment by offering Net Debt/Equity net cash its European customers competitive athletic products at approximately Major Shareholder 50-70% discount to premium brands such as Nike and Adidas. Such strategy proved to be a success with the new growth momentum reap- Xu’ s family 68.4% peared in 1H14. We expect Peak's European sales to grow 358% in 2014 Source : Bloomberg, Emperor Securities Research given its proven business model in Europe, as well as the positive effect from its sponsorship of 2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup kicking off in Share Price of Peak Spain this Sep.
HK$ 3 Maintain BUY; TP raised from HK$2.45 to HK$2.60 Since we initiated coverage on Peak in Jan 2014, the stock jumped over 2 25% amid persistent industry recovery. We raise Peak's 2014 EPS by 3% to 13.55 RMB cents on its strong 1H14 international sales. Trading at 14x 1 2014 EPS and 6.7% dividend yield, Peak's valuation is still undemanding given the growth prospects of its overseas segment and improving Chi- 0 na operation. Meanwhile, we see re-rating potential for Peak amid pre- Aug 12 Feb 13 Aug 13 Feb 14 Aug 14 vailing optimism in its overseas sales outlook. Thus, we maintain BUY
Change (%) 1-mth 3-mth 6-mth 12-mth with a revised TP of HK$2.60 which implies a 15x 14PE. Financial Information Peak 13.8 13.3 21.2 36.3 YE: Dec 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E Revenue (RMB mn) 4,647 2,903 2,613 2,896 3,242 MSCI China 3.4 12.2 14.6 13.2 Index Growth 9.4% -37.5% -10.0% 10.8% 11.9% Source : Bloomberg Net profit (RMB mn) 778 311 244 284 321 Growth -5.4% -60.1% -21.3% 16.4% 12.7% Emperor Securities Research EPS (RMB cents) 37.07 14.80 11.64 13.55 15.28 Tel : (852) 2836 2763 DPS (HK$ cents) 14.00 10.00 16.00 9.50 10.71 Fax : (852) 2831 8089 PE (x) 5.1 12.8 16.3 14.0 12.4 Email : [email protected] Div. yield (%) 5.9 4.2 6.7 4.0 4.5 Source: Company data, Emperor Securities Research WWW.EMPERORCAPITAL.COM 1
Peak Sport Products Co., Limited Emperor Securities Limited 1H14 European sales hit record high
Peak’s 1H14 overseas sales soared 68% yoy to RMB291mn, and emerged as the group's new growth driver as we had expected. The group reported record half year sales of RMB182mn in Europe in 1H14. The European sales jumped 344% yoy/ 116% hoh amid strong revenue growth in Netherlands, France, Germany and Slovakia as a result of successful marketing campaigns in those countries as well as the major sports events held during the period such as the 2014 Winter Olympics.
Figure 1: Peak’s Overseas Sales RMB mn
500
400
Peak’s overseas sales uptrend con- 300 tinues. 200
100
0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1H14 Source: Company data
Figure 2: Peak’s Overseas Sales as A Percentage of Total Revenue
25%
20%
Peak’s international sales contributed 15% 23% of 1H14 total turnover, up 14 ppt from 5 years ago and emerged as the 10% group's new growth driver.
5%
0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1H14 Source: Company data
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Peak Sport Products Co., Limited Emperor Securities Limited A proven business model to make Europe operation a new growth driver
Europe operation has been the pillar of Peak’s overseas business. Since the group went international in 2005, cumulative sales in Europe accounted for 30%+ of the group’s overseas revenue. Although Peak’s sales in Europe suffered European debt crisis hangover in 2011 and 2012 after a 4-year revenue uptrend, it regained growth momentum in 1H13 as Europe’s economy started to improve (see figure 3). The restored momentum and the sales uptrend between 2006 and 2010 proved that Peak's products met the needs of its European customers.
Figure 3: Peak’s Sales in Europe
RMB mn 200 180 160 Although Peak’s sales in Europe suf- 140 fered European debt crisis hangover in 120 2011 and 2012 after a 4-year revenue 100 uptrend, it regained growth momen- 80 tum in 1H13 as Europe’s economy 60 started to improve. 40 20 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1H14 Source: Company data
High production costs in Europe have been suppressing the birth of non- premium local athletic brands which target the continent’s low/mid-end sportswear market. Peak, leveraging the cost advantage with its production facilities in China and offering competitive athletic products to its European customers at approximately 50-70% discount (see figure 4) to premium brands such as Nike and Adidas, is well positioned to capture such opportunity. With the industry know-how obtained as an OEM for international sportswear brands from 1988 to 2008, Peak is solidly capable of delivering competitive athletic products as proven by the above- mentioned European sales performance. Such track record also affirmed the effectiveness of Peak’s competitive pricing strategy in the European theater. We expect Peak's European sales to grow 358% in 2014 given the group's edge in Europe’s low/mid-end sportswear market, the proven business model and the Peak-sponsored 2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup to kick off in Spain this Sep.
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Peak Sport Products Co., Limited Emperor Securities Limited
Figure 4: Median Retail Prices in European Markets (EUR per pair)
Types of footwear Running Basketball
Nike 120 130
Adidas 120 130 Peak offers comparable athletic prod- Reebok 100 130 ucts to its European customers at ap- proximately 50-70% discount to pre- Mizuno 140 na mium brands. ASICS 120 na
PEAK 40 60
Source: Company data, Foot Locker
Adding 40 overseas distributors to boost international presence
Peak’s appearance at major sports events including the NBA Finals, FIBA tournaments and WTA tours, as well as the growing popularity of its products in developed markets such as Germany and France, has been contributing to the brand enhancement. Riding on the increasing brand recognition, Peak will further expand its footprint to 100 countries (vs 80+ countries by the end of 1H14) in the years ahead. We are positive on the group's overseas expansion scheme given the management's plan to add 40 overseas distributors to its current 60-international-wholesaler network over the next 2 years.
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Peak Sport Products Co., Limited Emperor Securities Limited Overseas Operation Overview
Both of Peak's international and domestic segments enjoy the identical GPM while all distributors go through the same ordering procedure regardless of their origins (see figure 5). Peak sells its products to leading overseas distributors who will in turn sell the products to the retailers and consumers in their corresponding countries. Meanwhile, country-level and global-level marketing campaigns are executed along the trade flow to boost sales performance.
Figure 5: Trade flow of Peak’s Products
Distributors in Authorized retail Retail China outlets in China customers Peak Overseas Overseas Retail distributors retailers customers
At the same quarterly sales fairs Corporate customers Identical wholesales prices to all local and overseas distributors
Country-level and global-level marketing campaigns are executed along the trade flow to boost sales performance
Key: Peak's products
Source: Company data, Emperor Securities Research
Peak went international in 2005. Over the last 8 years, its products have reached over 80 countries in all 6 populated continents (excluding Antarctica). Europe and Asia ex-China have been the group's target markets, and for the overseas sales mix of the latest results, Europe/ Asia ex-China/ North America/ South America/ Africa/ Australasia accounted for 62%/ 20%/ 8%/ 5%/ 3%/ 2% respectively.
Peak's international segment has generated an aggregate revenue of RMB3,146mn since 2005, and is taking up the role as the new growth driver while it is currently contributing 23% of the group's total turnover, up 14 ppt from 5 years ago (see figure 2 ).
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Peak Sport Products Co., Limited Emperor Securities Limited Encouraging 1H14 Results
▇ 1H14 turnover up 10% amid 68% jump in international sales
▇ 1H14 GP/ EBIT margin improved by 4.4 ppt/ 2.6 ppt on ASP uplift/ effective control of distribution cost respectively
▇ NP and EPS surged 35% in 1H14 with increased overseas sales and improved margins
▇ International segment accounted for 23% of 1H14 total revenue, up by 8 ppt over the year
Figure 6: 1H14 Results Highlights
Change Financial highlights 1H14 1H13 1H14 vs 1H13
RMB mn Revenue 1,291.0 1,172.9 10.1% Domestic segment 999.6 998.9 0.1% International segment 291.4 174.0 67.5% Gross profit 496.2 398.8 24.4% Operating profit 198.9 150.5 32.2% Net profit 121.0 89.9 34.6% Net cash 2,521.6 2,514.5 0.3%
Gross profit margin 38.4% 34.0% +4.4 ppt Operating profit margin 15.4% 12.8% +2.6 ppt Net profit margin 9.4% 7.7% +1.7 ppt
EPS (basic & diluted, RMB) 5.77 cents 4.29 cents +34.5% DPS (HK$) 4.00 cents 8.00 cents* -50.0% * Including 6 HK cents special dividend Source: Company data
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Peak Sport Products Co., Limited Emperor Securities Limited
Figure 7: Peak’s Sales Fair Results
Product season Sales fair date YoY order growth by value (unless stated otherwise)
2Q13 Oct 2012 negative high-twenties %
3Q13 Jan 2013 na
1Q14 Jul 2013 na Peak reported mid-teens yoy growth in wholesale order value for 3 consec- 2Q14 Nov 2013 high single-digit (vs Peak’s 2Q13 sales) utive seasons. 3Q14 Feb 2014 mid-teens
4Q14 Apr 2014 mid-teens
1Q15 Jun 2014 mid-teens
Source: Company data
Figure 8: ASPs of Peak’s Products
Footwear Apparel Financial year / Event YoY growth YoY growth
2013 0.8% 1.8%
1Q15 ASP remained flat on high base 3Q14 sales fair in Feb 2014 low single-digit low-teens effect. 4Q14 sales fair in Apr 2014 low single-digit mid single-digit
1Q15 sales fair in Jun 2014 flat flat
Source: Company data
Figure 9: Peak’s Distribution Channels in China
Date Number of retail outlets Number of exclusive distributors
31 Mar 2012 7,523 na
30 Jun 2012 7,059 na
Peak started to consolidate its domes- 30 Sep 2012 6,739 na tic distribution channels in 2012 by 31 Dec 2012 6,483 59 closing down non-performing retail outlets. The consolidation is on track 31 Mar 2013 6,358 na
to meet the management’s target 30 Jun 2013 6,194 na that the number of retail outlets would 30 Sep 2013 6,088 na maintain at 2013’s level. 31 Dec 2013 6,012 66
31 Mar 2014 6,016 na
30 Jun 2014 6,000 na
Source: Company data
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Peak Sport Products Co., Limited Emperor Securities Limited
Figure 10: Same Store Sales Growth of Peak’s Retailers
Period Growth
3Q12 0.0%
4Q12 0.0%
1Q13 0.0%
Peak’s retailers saw same store sales 2Q13 0.0% growth for 4 consecutive quarters. 3Q13 low single-digit
4Q13 low single-digit
1Q14 low single-digit
2Q14 low single-digit
Source: Company data
Figure 11: Peer Comparison
Security Net profit Revenue Div. 2014 P/B Net Market Code at Company growth growth yield P/E gearing cap. HKEx in 1H14 in 1H14 (%) (X) (x) (%) (HK$ mn)
1968.HK Peak 34.6% 10.1% 6.7 14.0 1.0 net cash 5,014
Peak outperformed its comparable 1361.HK 361 Degrees 28.3% 4.6% 2.8 9.8 0.8 net cash 4,632 peers in 1H14 as shown by its top line and bottom line performances. Its 1368.HK Xtep -16.6% 1.8% 4.1 12.1 1.5 net cash 8,664 stocks offer the highest yield among peers as well. consecutive 2331.HK Li Ning 8.0% 0.0 na 1.8 11.3 6,320 loss
Average na na 6.1% 3.4 na 1.3 na 6,158
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Emperor Securities Research
Risks
▇ Uncertain outlook for Europe’s economy
▇ Political instability in Southeast Asia and Africa
▇ Keen competition in China’s sportswear market
▇ China’s economic slowdown
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Peak Sport Products Co., Limited Emperor Securities Limited
Figure 12: Peak’s Basketball Series (Left) And E-running 2 (Right)
Source: Media, Emperor Securities Research
Figure 13: Peak’s Advertisements at Major Sports Events
Source: Media, Emperor Securities Research
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Peak Sport Products Co., Limited Emperor Securities Limited
Company Background
Peak designs, manufactures, and markets athletic footwear, apparel and accessory products under the “PEAK” brand. The group sells its products in China via 69 domestic distributors and exports the output to over 80 countries via 60 overseas wholesalers. It has 3 production facilities located in Fujian and Jiangxi with total annual production capacities of 13mn pieces of apparel products and 11mn pairs of footwear products. For the revenue mix of latest results, domestic / international segment accounted for 77%/ 23% respectively while footwear/ apparel/ accessories account- ed for 40%/ 58%/ 2% respectively.
Figure 14: Major Milestones of Peak
Year Milestone
1991 The “PEAK” brand was launched.
Peak became the official marketing partner of National Basketball Associa- 2007 tion (NBA) in China.
2008 Peak had an association with Fédération Internationale de Basketball (FIBA).
2009 Peak went public on HKEx.
2010 Peak had an association with Women’s Tennis Association (WTA).
2011 Peak opened its U.S. headquarters in Los Angeles.
Peak signed an endorsement agreement with four-time NBA All-Star Tony 2013 Parker.
Source: Company data
Figure 15: Peak’s Marketing Partners
NBA FIBA
Miami Heat San Antonio Spurs
Houston Rockets German Basketball Federation
Basketball Australia Basketball New Zealand
Basketball Federation of Montenegro Basketball Federation of Serbia
Icelandic Basketball Federation Cameroon Basketball Federation
Côte d’Ivoire Basketball Federation Lebanese Basketball Federation
Iran Basketball Federation Women’s Tennis Association
The National Olympic Committee of New Zealand The National Olympic Committee of Slovenia
The National Olympic Committee of Lebanon The National Olympic Committee of Jordan
China Central Television (CCTV) The US International University Sports Federation
Source: Company data
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Peak Sport Products Co., Limited Emperor Securities Limited
Income Statement Cash Flow Statement YE: Dec (RMB mn) 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E YE: Dec (RMB mn) 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E Revenue 4,647 2,903 2,613 2,896 3,242 PBT 937 406 390 445 501 Cost of sales (2,814) (1,845) (1,686) (1,783) (1,978) Depreciation 31 39 43 43 43 Gross profit 1,833 1,058 927 1,113 1,265 Change in w orking cap. (472) (158) 167 (40) (85) Other income 31 45 62 84 96 Taxation and others (186) (106) (93) (195) (230) Distribution expenses (713) (461) (334) (382) (444) Operating cashflow 311 181 507 253 231 Administrative expenses (213) (228) (252) (352) (394) Capex (229) (183) (75) (56) (56) EBIT 938 414 403 464 523 M&A/ disposals 0 0 0 0 0 Finance expenses (2) (8) (13) (19) (22) Bank deposits and others (83) (313) (780) 42 42 Profit before tax 937 406 390 445 501 Investing cashflow (312) (496) (855) (15) (15) Taxation (159) (95) (146) (160) (181) Change in debt 161 335 270 204 150 Net profit 778 311 244 284 321 New share issues 1 0 0 0 0 EPS (RMB cents) 37.07 14.80 11.64 13.55 15.28 Dividend paid (227) (272) (217) (156) (176) DPS (HK$ cents) 14.00 10.00 16.00 9.50 10.71 Others (1) (7) (14) (19) (22) Source: Company data, Emperor Securities Research Financing cashflow (66) 56 38 28 (48) Change in cash (67) (260) (310) 267 168 Forex effect 5 (6) 6 6 6 Beginning cash 2,566 2,503 2,237 1,933 2,206 Ending cash 2,504 2,237 1,933 2,206 2,380 Source: Company data, Emperor Securities Research
Balance Sheet Financial Ratios YE: Dec (RMB mn) 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E YE: Dec 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E Cash & CE 2,503 2,237 1,933 2,206 2,380 Profitability (%) Trade & other rec. 1,089 1,093 978 997 1,116 Gross margin 39.4% 36.5% 35.5% 38.4% 39.0% Inventories 421 386 366 369 389 EBITDA margin 20.9% 15.6% 17.1% 17.5% 17.5% Other current assets 194 526 1,348 1,410 1,410 EBIT margin 20.2% 14.3% 15.4% 16.0% 16.1% Current assets 4,208 4,242 4,624 4,982 5,295 Net profit margin 16.7% 10.7% 9.3% 9.8% 9.9% PPE 439 495 480 472 465 Grow th (%) Other non-current assets 233 312 345 374 416 Revenue 9.4% -37.5% -10.0% 10.8% 11.9% Total assets 4,880 5,049 5,448 5,828 6,177 EBITDA -4.9% -53.3% -1.3% 13.5% 11.7% Short-term debts 161 496 530 558 558 EBIT 30.7% -55.9% -2.6% 15.0% 12.8% Trade & other pay. 562 373 415 461 516 Net profit -5.4% -60.1% -21.3% 16.4% 12.8% Other current liabilities 55 29 65 65 65 EPS -90.5% -60.1% -21.3% 16.4% 12.8% Current liabilities 777 898 1,010 1,084 1,139 Other Key Ratios Long-term debts 0 0 237 412 562 Current ratio (x) 5.4 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.7 Other non-current liabilities 59 67 80 83 83 Debt/ total asset (%) 3.3% 9.8% 14.1% 16.6% 18.1% Non-current liabilities 59 67 317 495 645 Net debt/ equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash Total Liability 836 964 1,327 1,579 1,784 Dividend payout (%) 29.6% 53.0% 107.8% 55.0% 55.0% Owners' Equity 4,043 4,084 4,122 4,250 4,393 ROA (%) 17.1% 6.3% 4.7% 5.0% 5.3% Source: Company data, Emperor Securities Research ROE (%) 20.7% 7.6% 6.0% 6.8% 7.4% BV per share (HK$) 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 Source: Company data, Emperor Securities Research
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Peak Sport Products Co., Limited Emperor Securities Limited
Disclaimers And Disclosures
The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and has been compiled with high integrity, but Emperor Securities Limited (“Emperor Securities”) or any member of Emperor Capital Group (“ECG”) does not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The information and opinions contained in this report are or may be subject to change or revision without any notice. This report is for information purposes only. No representation, warranty or guarantee whatsoever, whether expressed or implied, is made as to its accuracy or completeness and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. Emperor Securities and ECG do not accept any responsibility or liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss or damage of whatsoever nature arising from or as a result of the use in whole or in part of this report or any of its contents.
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Emperor Securities Research
Stanley Chan David Yuen Associate Director Senior Research Analyst Tel : (852) 2836 2733 Tel : (852) 2836 2797 Email : [email protected] Email : [email protected]
Frankie Chan Ian Lam Research Analyst Research Analyst Tel : (852) 2836 2566 Tel : (852) 2836 2763 Email : [email protected] Email : [email protected]
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Peak Sport Products Co., Limited Emperor Securities Limited
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