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June 2020 Issue

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June 2020 Issue June 2020 Issue Contents The Crypto Vigilante Portfolio Monthly Snapshot 2 Cryptocurrency Fundamental Metrics Charts 3 Big Block Bitcoin Fundamental Analysis Rafael LaVerde 9 Crypto Asset Outlook & Market Commentary Mr. X 27 www.cryptovigilante.io 1 www.cryptovigilante.io 2 Bitcoin (BTC) Number of Transactions on Blockchain Per Day - Historical Chart (Logarithmic) Source: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactions.html#log ​ Monero (XMR) Number of Transactions on Blockchain Per Day - Historical Chart (Logarithmic) Source: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/monero-transactions.html#log ​ Bitcoin (BTC) Average Transaction Fee (USD) - Historical Chart (Logarithmic) Source: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html#log ​ www.cryptovigilante.io 3 Monero (XMR) Average Transaction Fee (USD) - Historical Chart (Logarithmic) Source: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/monero-transactionfees.html#log ​ Bitcoin (BTC) Google Search Trends - Historical Chart (Logarithmic) Source: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/google_trends-btc.html#log ​ Monero (XMR) Google Search Trends - Historical Chart (Logarithmic) Source: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/google_trends-xmr.html#log ​ www.cryptovigilante.io 4 Bitcoin (BTC) Hashrate Distribution Amongst The Largest Mining Pools Source: https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/charts/hashrate-distribution ​ www.cryptovigilante.io 5 Monero (XMR) Hashrate Distribution Amongst The Largest Mining Pools Source: https://minexmr.com/pools.html ​ www.cryptovigilante.io 6 Bitcoin Hash Rates by Network (Logarithmic) Source: https://coin.dance/blocks/hashrate ​ www.cryptovigilante.io 7 Daily Bitcoin Transactions by Network (Logarithmic) Source: https://coin.dance/blocks/transactions/log ​ “Disclaimer: The above chart is misleading since BTC has lots of batched transactions & lightning network transactions which are not included on this graph. Also, Craig Wright & Jimmy Nguyen of BSV have stated in a recent interview that they are testing large numbers of transactions as part of the development process, ​ ​ so many of the transactions are arguably not true economic activity, but rather development testing.” -Mr. X “Alternative Perspective: The above chart solely pertains to transactions that settle on-chain. That is, all transactions that do not directly/automatically settle on the blockchain, such as the transactions that happen within the LN, are irrelevant to the actual PoW that happens on the actual blockchain settlement layer.” -Rafael Both perspectives are valuable. We are not an echo-chamber. We strive to give you the most well-rounded perspective. www.cryptovigilante.io 8 Big Block Bitcoin Fundamental Analysis Rafael LaVerde Bitcoin’s Capitalist Competition - Bitcoin miners capitalize across three chains: BTC, BCH, & BSV. At the most fundamental level Bitcoin is defined as a competitive network of miners. ​ From the time of the first fork, we have told our subscribers to bet on the entirety of the Bitcoin network. That is, to hold one BCH and one BSV for every one BTC you hold. We called this the Bitcoin Index. ​ The entirety of the Bitcoin network refers to all competitive market options for Bitcoin miners. Bitcoin ​ SHA256 miners now have three blockchain networks fighting for their business: BCH, BSV, & BTC. Why the Bitcoin Index? -The Bitcoin Index is most valuable because of the PoW committed in protecting all 3 chains. Throughout the entire crypto world, no other cryptocurrency holds as much investment securing its chain of historical transactions as the three Bitcoin sibling chains. We now have three alternative histories of the original Bitcoin blockchain: BTC, BCH, and BSV respectively. Bitcoin miners have the ability to mine and monetize across all three chains. Note that the committed historical investment into Bitcoin is not just in terms of market capitalization or the worth of the coin. The particular investment that makes the Bitcoin Index special revolves around the expenditure of energy which secures the transactions of the network(s). This expenditure of energy comes from the Proof of Work (PoW) nature of the Bitcoin protocol. The costly expenditure that comes from PoW miners signals the commitment of capital in securing the future of these networks. Capital investment into Bitcoin mining is a signal of confidence for investors and future ​ ​ entrepreneurs. The Bitcoin Index is also composed of the early Bitcoin adopters. These early investors are the most seasoned and committed network of crypto investors. When we invest in a crypto we don’t only invest in the technology of that given crypto, we as investors also invest in the community of investors of given cryptocurrency. The quality of investor composition within a cryptocurrency is incredibly valuable. www.cryptovigilante.io 9 HODLing the Bitcoin Index opens yourself up to the future of Bitcoin Mining on all fronts. No one knows for sure what the future holds, but what we do know for sure that the enterprise of Bitcoin mining has three clear ​ options for its future. ​ Ask yourself this rhetorical question, “what Bitcoin sibling chain(s) will miners consider to be best for their future?” If you don’t have a clear answer, we recommend that you hedge your bets across the Bitcoin Index. Profit Seeking is Bitcoin’s Motor -The Nakamoto Consensus is an economic structure that aligns everyone’s interests and incentives. Nakamoto Consensus: A constantly verifiable competitive system of energy spent in securing Bitcoin, where ​ the financial incentives of miners are aligned to continually better Bitcoin. Bitcoin has been designed as a capitalist system meant to uphold itself via profit seeking. Without profit there is no incentive for miners to run a Bitcoin mining business. Without PoW miners there is no securing of the Bitcoin network. The competitive nature of Bitcoin mining is the driver for constantly improving Bitcoin’s security, profit, and cost efficiency. Bitcoin mining was designed to become more competitive and profitable as time goes on. In a blockchain you are only as strong as your weakest computer miner or validator The well-being of miners is intrinsically tied in with the well-being of all users within the network. If a miner decides to do something that is not in the best interest of the rest of the network, that miner gets orphaned. It is always suicidal for a miner to sabotage the network for quick gains. ​ You can’t cheat PoW. PoW is a reliable signal of capitalist commitment which increases market confidence. The work of miners is energy spent that signals to the rest of the network - in an undeniable and provable way - that their committed capital is constantly improving and securing the network. The Current State of the Bitcoin Mining Competition All of Bitcoin was once united under one blockchain. After much debate about scaling, the market is in the process of deciding which chain - or chains - is/are best for miners and users. We currently have three sibling Bitcoin chains competing for the future of Bitcoin mining. The BTC camp thinks they have already won. I personally think that this is a presumptuous position. BTC merely inherited the ticker symbol, which confuses most people. www.cryptovigilante.io 10 Bitcoin is not politics, it is a strict capitalist competition. Most of the debate regarding Bitcoin scaling was political. We are now moving into an era where politicking in Bitcoin is meaningless. Big Blocker Perspective on BTC I think that there is a place for the small blocker mentality within crypto. The definition of having an asset as “digital gold” makes sense. However, in order to have this title the asset must be fungible. No Bitcoin sibling chain - BTC, BCH, or BSV - is fungible. Any attempt at making any of these three Bitcoin sibling chains fungible is a trite endeavor. The most intelligent crowd within the BTC crowd - that wanted true “digital gold”- realized that this could only be achieved by starting over again. Monero (XMR) has been the result of this endeavor. The logical conclusion for what BTC desires to become is found in Monero (XMR). In my opinion, the most intelligent BTC proponents have already moved on to XMR. Be careful with the BTC presumption of thinking that BTC has already won. BTC has not won the race for the rest of history. Big blockers (BSV & BCH), like myself, perceive BTC as having made a fatal mistake for not being miner centric in its scaling. BTC chose a scaling route that necessitates a second layer. The Lightning Network (LN) has become the most championed second layer solution for BTC scaling. Even if the LN were to work to perfection, the LN still cripples BTC miners economically. The Lightning Network (LN) is not Bitcoin. The LN is a separate protocol where digital tokens - that represent BTC - are transacted. No actual BTC is transacted on the LN, only representations of the amount of BTC locked up in a BTC wallet. To lock up the BTC that is going to be used in the LN is what is referred to as “opening up an LN channel.” To unlock said BTC from that same BTC wallet is what is referred to as “closing an LN channel.” In other words, ​ actual BTC only “settles” on the BTC blockchain when a LN channel is closed, not being used. No actual BTC is ever transacted within the LN since the BTC blockchain is not at all involved within LN node transactions. That is, no Bitcoin miners process transactions that happen within the LN. All transaction fees that LN node operators gain are transaction fees that could have gone to profit Bitcoin miners. I don’t consider transactions that happen on the LN to be BTC transactions. If the miners are not processing the actual transactions on the BTC blockchain, then said transactions are not Bitcoin transactions by definition. www.cryptovigilante.io 11 There is no going back for BTC. BTC is now for the rest of history - unless they increase their block size (which they won’t) - incapable of being a functional global medium of exchange without a second layer.
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