NATIONAL DROUGHT MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY COUNTY

DROUGHT MONITORING AND EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, SEPTEMBER 2014

Livelihood Warning stage Trend Zone Pastoral Alarm Worsening

Agro Pastoral Alarm Worsening

Marginal Mixed Alarm Worsening Farming

Mixed Farming Alarm Worsening

County Alarm Worsening

1 KAJIADO COUNTY LIVELIHOOD ZONES

Seasonal Calendar . Milk yield drops . Increased milk yield . Low milk availability . Increased milk yield. . Decline in livestock . High Calving and lambing . Water and pasture stress . Calving rates increases prices rates. experienced across all livelihood . Decline in livestock sale . Water stress experien zones ced across all livelihood zones Short dry spell Long rains Long dry spell Short rains

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Short rains Land Planting/weeding Crops at Long rains harvest Land Planting/Weeding Crops at green harvest Preparation green Preparation maturity maturity .

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Situation Overview

 The county experienced dry and cold weather conditions in the month of September. Some “off season” light rains were experienced in the last dekad of August and in the 2nd dekad of September (14.5 mm). However, both temporal and spatial distribution was poor. The six months cumulative rainfall had a 72.4% deficit.

 Pasture had depleted in nearly all areas in pastoral zones of the county as early as July. Few areas in Pastoral zones had poor grass by September mainly Olgulului area bordering Amboseli National Park in Kajiado South Sub County.

 Browse improved both in terms of quality and quantity following the off season rains especially in pastoral areas of Kajiado west. However it was below normal.

 Water sources mainly boreholes in areas of high concentration of livestock were already experiencing stress. This was due to increased concentrations of livestock to these areas. The state of water in Kajiado would be described as stressed.

 Cattle body condition was described as poor and deteriorating. There were reports of cattle dying due to drought especially in Maparasha in Kajiado Central Sub County. The sheep and goats body condition was fair as a result of improved browse.

 Prices of livestock have been on decline since April while prices of maize and beans remained relatively stable with slight fluctuations.

 The average household milk production and consumption was on declining since April 2014. This decline was due to declining pasture and low calving rates.

 The percentage of children under five the risk of malnutrition was on rise since May. This trend in risk of malnutrition might was probably associated with reduction in household milk production and consumption as while as prices of livestock.

 The county was experiencing abnormal both intra and inter migration of livestock compared to the long term migration pattern. Major areas of in migration include Olgulului and Chyulu hills. Out migration areas include and other neighbouring counties especially Makueni and . Some livestock had gone as far as in County

 Based on these indicators and their trends the county was described as in alarm stage which was worsening.

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1.0. MEASURING DROUGHT HAZARD 1.1 METEROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 Rainfall Amount of rainfall and temporal distribution The county started experiencing some “off season” light rains in the 3rd dekad of August and continued to the 2nd dekad of September. However, both spatial and temporal distribution was poor. In September, light showers were recorded for 5 days which accumulated to 14.5mm. Some of the areas that received rainfall include Ngong, Ewaso, Esonorua, Oletepes and various parts in the Central and East sub counties. Compared to long term averages, the six month cumulative rainfall (April 2014 – September 2014) showed a 72.4 % deficit (41.5 mm compared to 150.5 mm). The rainfall trends for the county are shown in graph 1.1.1

Graph 1.1.1: Average rainfall for Kajiado County; Long term and 2014 averages

150 130 110 90 70 50 30 10 Rainfall Rainfall in mm -10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Long Term Average Rainfall (2009- 55.1 32.7 66.3 89.3 50.3 8.5 0.5 0.5 1.4 10.6 51.9 93.92 2013) 2014 Average Rainfall 9 21 32 13 9 0 0 5 14.5

1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.2 Field Observations (Pasture and Browse Conditions) Quality and Quality Pasture had depleted in nearly all areas in pastoral zones of the county as early as July. Few areas had poor grass by September. These areas include Isinya, Chylu and part of Olgulului next to Amboseli National Park. Browse improved both in terms of quality and quantity following the off season rains especially in pastoral areas of Kajiado west.

The pasture quality and quantity in the few isolated areas were below normal at this time of the year. The below normal pasture situation was attributed to poor performance of long rains and that the off season rains did not result to regeneration of grass. However, the pasture may regenerate if the rain was to continue to the month of October. Pasture quality was also negatively affected by Ipomea weed especially in Kaiado East and Kajiado Central Sub Counties. Large percentage of land wa taken by the plant. Castor plant was also a menace in especially in Shingalaini.

1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resources Water quantity continued to decline below normal since April this year. This was due to poor rainfall during long rains seasons resulting to low underground recharge coupled with long dry period. Water sources for both domestic and livestock consumption remained the normal source at this time of the year. These sources include natural rivers, shallow river wells and boreholes. Other source such as pans had since dried up by June and no recharge was done during August – September rains. Instead, river wells were being dug deeper than the normal at this time of the year and water volume in permanent rivers had reduced below the normal. Many boreholes and especially in areas with high concentration of livestock mainly due to in migration were already experiencing stress.

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The state of water in Kajiado would be described as declining and stressed.

Household access to Water The average distance from the household to the water point remained stable in August – September period. In September the average distance from household to water point was 5.85 kilometers compared to 5.73 kilometers in August. There was slight variation of the average distance from household to the water point by livelihood zones. In Agro- pastoral zone this distance was 5.33 kilometers compared to 6.16 kilimeters in Pastoral zone.

In August, the average distance to water point from household in Agro Pastoral areas was 5.8 kilometers. This slight increase in distance from 5.8 kilometers to 6.16 kilometers was probably due to breakage or drying up of some boreholes. There was increased concentration wildlife in watering points in all livelihood zones.

The average distance from household to water point in September remained below the long term average. Graph 1.3.1a.shows the average distances from household to the water points

Graph 1.3.1a: Average household distance to water source for Kajiado County; Long term and 2014 averages

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km 6 4 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Long Term Distances(2009-2013) 4 5.5 6.75 6.5 9 9.25 9.5 9.75 9.8 9.05 5.7 4.85 2014 Average Distances 3.19 3.59 3 4.13 4.39 5.51 5.36 5.73 6.03

Livestock access to water The average distance covered by livestock from the grazing areas to main water sources in September was 6.89 kilometers from 6.52 kilometers in August. Variations in distance were noted across the Sub Counties. The longest distances were in Kajiado South of up to 14.5 kilometers in Rombo. Loodokilani in Kajiado Central recorded the shorted distance of 3 kilometers. The average distance for the month of September was below the long term average.

Distances to water sources from grazing areas are show in graph 1.3.1b

Graph 1.3.1b: Average distance to water source from grazing areas for Kajiado County; Long term and 2014 averages

8 7 6 5 4 Km 3 2 1 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep. Oct Nov Dec Long Term Average Distances 4 5 5 5 5 7.5 7 9 9 9 6 4 (2009-2013) 2014 Average Distances 3.6 4.07 3.41 4.69 5.41 6.76 6.14 6.52 7.5

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2.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Migration patterns Intra migration of livestock started in May, three months earlier than usual. Some intra migration routes are not normal for example movement of livestock from Mile 46 to Emutorok in Mashuuru. There were a lot of concentrations of livestock in Olgulului area next to Amboseli National Park due to in migration of livestock to these areas both from within the county and from Tanzania. There were also reported cases of in migration of livestock from Tanzania to Shompole in Magadi as early as July. Other intra migration routes include from Kimana and Mbirikani towards Chyulu hills. Cases of out migration of livestock to Nairobi and other neighbouring counties especially to Machakos and Makueni . Some livestock had gone as far as Thika in by the Month of August. Both out and in migrations are not normal as migration in a normal situation starts in September.

2.1.2 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition had deteriorated since June. Cattle body condition would be described as poor and progressively worsening. Thin fore ribs are now visible in most of cattle. Cases of cattle not able to walk were reported in pastoral zones of Kajiado West especially in Ewuaso. Body condition for goats would be described as fair and improving following improved browse after some rains that were experienced in August and September. There were minimal variations of livestock body condition over livelihoods zones.

Based on livestock body conditions the county would be described as in alarm stage.

2.1.3 Livestock Diseases No disease out breaks was reported in September. However, there were cases of Lappy Skin Disease reported in and a few suspected cases of CCPP, PPR in Magadi. It was worth noting that the high rates of livestock movements and concentration in grazing areas and watering points continue to pose potential grounds for disease outbreaks

2.1.4 Milk Production Cattle were the main source of milk in the county. The average household milk production per day in September was 2.4 litres per household per day. This was a slight decline from 2.6 litres in August.

There were substantial variations across the livelihoods with Agro-Pastoral recording about 4.1 liters per day while Pastoral livelihoods recorded less than 1 liter per household per day. Also noted was that much of milk in Agro Pastoral zones came from Shollike where famers practiced dairy farming.

2.2 Rain-fed Crop Production 2.2.1 Harvesting Harvesting in mixed farming zones of and Agro pastoral areas of Mashuuru and Ngong’ was done earlier than the usual times. Beans were harvested as early as in 1ST dekand of June while maize was harvested by 1st dekand of July. Most of crops had already been affected by moisture stress by May and continued to experience the same in June. The yields for both stable crops were minimal and are expected to last for a month. The poor long rains harvest was likely to result into worsening food insecurity in the county in the next few months. Harvesting of beans was reported in few irrigated areas of Rombo in the mother of September.

2.2.2 Land Preparations

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Land preparation s for planting for short rains was going on in mixed farming zones of loitockok while planting was on going in Ngong.

3.0 ACCESSS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices 3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade The term of trade for pastoralists remained relatively stable between August – September period. An average goat would purchase 61 kilograms of maize in August and 62 kilograms of maize in September. The stability of TOT was due to stable price of maize and that of goats. Analysis of TOT by other commodities especially by cattle prices may reveal a worse off scenario.

3.1.2 Cattle Prices The average household price of a cow in September was Kshs 16,713 compared to Kshs 19,000 in August. The 12% decline in cattle prices was due to their deteriorating body condition. Cattle body was poor due to prolonged inadequate pasture as a result of poor long rains. Variations in cattle price existed by areas and not necessarily by livelihoods. The lowest prices of cattle were in Ewaso and Loodokilani where the average price of a cow was Kshs 13,200 and Kshs 13,300 respectively. Although the trend for cattle prices was declining, it was above the long term average.

In September 2013, the average household price of cattle was Ksh 19,500. Graph 3.1.2 shows the trends in average cattle price for the 2014 and for long term averages.

Graph 3.1.2: Average cattle price for Kajiado County; Long term and 2014 averages 25,000 20,000

Kshs 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Long Term Average Prices 13,29713,15213,56015,23216,00015,49214,74214,54513,22314,12814,44314,529 (2009-2013) 2014 Prices 21,68423,40423,80024,50420,80019,10019,20019,00016,900

3.1.3 Goat Prices In August - September period the average household price of a goat showed a slow rate of decline. In August the average household price of a goat was Kshs 2,821 while in September it was Kshs 2,765. Despite the declining trend in goat prices, the September prices remained above the long term average. There was variation in average household prices of goats by livelihoods. In Pastoral zones the average price of a goat was up to Kshs 3,542 while in Agro Pastoral it was Kshs 3,377. In areas where the goat body condition is poor, the prices were as low as Kshs 1,950. In September 2013, the household price of a goat was Kshs 3,345

Graph 3.1.3 shows the average price of a goat for the current year alongside the long term averages.

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Graph 3.1.3: Average goat price for Kajiado County; Long term and 2014 average 4,000

3,000

Kshs 2,000

1,000

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Long Term Average Prices 2,119 2,126 2,204 2,455 2,435 2,480 2,429 2,421 2,354 2,225 2,405 2,436 (2009-2013) 2014 Prices 3,223 3,077 3,142 3,250 3,076 3,125 3,167 2,821 2,771

3.1.4. Sheep Prices The average household price of sheep like that of goats declined slightly from Kshs 2,868 in August to Kshs 2,543 in September this year. Like goats, variations of prices of sheep existed across and within livelihood zones. The lowest prices of sheep were in Magadi where the average price of a sheep was Kshs 1,867. The highest price of sheep was in Meto which was Kshs 3,340. The market prices might have influenced the household prices. Meto is close to Bissil the largest livestock market in the county. Household prices for cattle and goats were also highest in Meto.

In September 2013 the average household price of a sheep was Kshs 3,322. Graph 3.1.4 shows the average price of a sheep for the current year alongside the long term averages.

Graph 3.1.4: Average sheep price for Kajiado County; Long term and 2014 averages

4,000

3,000 Kshs 2,000 1,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Long Term Average 2,135 2,137 2,176 2,318 2,455 2,419 2,356 2,347 2,000 2,146 2,124 2,144 Prices (2009-2013) 2014 Prices 3,186 3,100 3,120 3,180 3,111 3,087 3,026 2,868 2,667

3.1.5 Milk prices Price of milk at the household continues remained the same in August – September period at Kshs 37. It was worth noting that the sale of milk was limited to Agro Pastoral areas. Much of the sales of milk came mostly from urban peripheral areas of where much milk was also produced. The little milk that was produce in Pastoral zones was consumed at the household.

In Septembert 2013, a 750 ml bottle of milk was selling at Kshs 35.4 on average. In September 2013, sales of milk also came from all livelihood zones unlike in September 2014 the milk sold came from Agro Pastoral zones.

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3.2 Price of Cereals and other food Products 3.2.1 Price of Maize The price of maize remained stable since May. The average price of maize per kilogram in May was Kshs 46.40, Kshs 46.70 in June, Kshs 42.50 in July, Kshs 45.90 in August and Kshs 44.50 in September. Importation of Maize from Tanzania helped stabilize the prices of the community. In September 2013, a kilogram of maize was costing Kshs 45. The maize price for September 2014 was above the long term average.

Graph 3.2.1 shows the average price of a kilogram of maize for the current year alongside the long term averages.

Graph 3.2.1: Average price of Maize for Kajiado County; Long term and 2014 averages 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00

20.00Ksh/Kg 10.00 0.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Term Average Prices ( 41.00 39.00 38.5 38.00 37.00 37.5 37.5 38.00 38.5 38.5 39.5 40 2009-2013) 2014 prices 48.6 41.90 38.00 43.00 46.40 46.70 42.50 45.90 44.50

3.2.2 Price of Beans Price of beans showed a fluctuating trend but within the normal range during July - September period. In July the average price of beans per kilogram was Kshs 85.40, Kshs 89.90 in August and Kshs 85.25 in September. Like maize, importation of beans from Tanzania helped keep the prices of the community within the normal range.

In August 2013, a kilogram of beans was selling at Kshs 86 implying that the prices of beans had relatively decreased in September this year compared to the same month last year. In comparison to the long term average, the prices for September this year were above normal.

Graph 3.2.2 shows the average price of beans for the current year alongside the long term averages.

Graph 3.2.2: Average price of Beans for Kajiado County; Long term and 2014 averages

160 140

Ksh/Kg 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Long Term Average Prices 106.5096.50 97.00 93.00 81.50 75.00 74.00 75.00 75.00 76.00 78.00 79.00 (2009-2013) 2014 Prices 92.17 87.00 87.00 93.00 92.40 90.80 84.90 89.90 85.25

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3.3 Access to Food and Water 3.3.1 Availability of milk for household consumption The milk consumption continued to decline with declining production since April with the September consumption below 1 litre per household per day. Minimal variation existed in milk consumption by livelihood. In Agro-pastoral zones the consumption was about 0.9 litres per day per household while in pastoral zones the consumption per day per household was about 1 litre.

In August last year the average household milk consumption was 1.4 litres per day

4.0 UTILIZATION INDICATORS 4.1 Health and Nutrition Status 4.1.1 MUAC The percentage of children under the risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of September increased slightly to 8.19 % from 7.04% in August. Further increase in risk of malnutrition was more probable since milk production and consumption was on a declining trend. The area noted for high levels of children at risk of malnutrition was Rombo with a MUAC level of 20.3%. The percentage of under five children at risk of malnutrition in September was below the long term average. Graph 4.1.1 shows the percentage of under five children at risk of malnutrition.

Graph 4.1.1: Children with MUAC<135 for Kajiado County; Long term and 2014 percentage 20 16 12 8 4 0

Malnutrition Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec % of of % U5at Risk of Long Term Average MUAC 11.7 11.7 11.8 10.5 11.3 11.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.05 13.3 13.2 Percentage(2009-2013) 2014 MUAC Percentage 4.5 4.1 4.06 4.99 6.1 6.7 6.5 7.04 8.19

4.2 Human Health. No cases of human disease outbreak were reported in the month of August.

5.0. CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES AND COPING STRATEGIES 5.1 Ongoing Interventions  Provision of fuel subsidy to Orbili, Elerai, Ilmarba, EmuruaOdule (Kitenden), Orbili, Oltiasika, Embargigoi, Iltuleta, Emotoroki, Olgulului (Emampuli) by National Drought Management Authority  Drilling of new boreholes in Imporokua, Enkorika and Isinya by Ministry of Water and Irriation  Rehabilitation of broken down boreholes in Kenyewa and Mashuuru by Ministry of Water and Irrigation  Construction of sand dams in Dalalakutuk ward by Neighbours Initiative Alliance  Provision of therapeutic feeds and supplementary feeding for children under five and pregnant mother by Ministry of Health  Participatory scenario planning by Meteorological services in collaboration with Agricultural Sector Development Support Program

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6.0. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION Recommendations to County Steering Group  Monitoring of onset of short rains. Action: National Drought Management Authority and Meteorological Department  Resource mobilization for drought response activities. Action: County Government  Monitoring and mapping of livestock movements. Action: National Drought Management Authority  Monitoring any potential conflict among communities. Action: National Government Administrative Organ  Advocate for livestock off take to avert potential deaths. Action: Livestock Production Department  Increase supplementary feeding in schools. Action: Ministry of Education  Disease surveillance for both livestock and human. Action: Ministry of Health & Livestock Production Department  Scale up HINI in health facilities and integrated health related outreach programmes. Action: Ministry of Health  Formation of technical committee to address the menace of ipomea weed. Action: Agricultural Sector Development Support Programme

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