Midterm Elections 2018 Lesson Overview

Like money and volunteers, geography is a critical component of modern campaigning. After all, knowing where to invest a campaign’s limited resources often decides Election Day’s winners and losers.

In this lesson, you’re a member of an impartial GIS consultant firm working for Republicans and Democrats in the run up to the 2020 presidential election. Your task is to objectively analyze relevant election history, which includes data from the 2018 midterms.

You’ll focus on Virginia’s recent elections and identify counties and congressional districts which could be flipped to the opposing party. Build Skills in These Areas

➢ Use predominant mapping

➢ Filter and use map notes

➢ Create a tabbed story map Software Requirements

➢ ArcGIS Online account (create a free ArcGIS Public Account or get a free ArcGIS trial) Estimated Time

➢ 1 hour – 1 hour, 30 minutes

Exercise

Step 1: Map swing states

The purpose of this map is to show which states changed voting affiliation between the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections.

1. Open Midterm Election 2018, sign in, and save to your organization. 2. Save as 01 Election 2016 Swing States . Add appropriate metadata. Remove the existing tags and add individualized tags. 3. Under Details, click Content to show the layers in the Contents pane. 4. Check on the States 2012 Election. 5. Click the Change Style icon under States 2012 Election.

6. For Choose an attribute to show, select F2012_elec. 7. Click Options.

In American politics, red symbolizes Republicans and blue represents Democrats. They’re backward in this layer, so you’ll change them.

8. Click the red square beside Obama, change to any blue color, and click OK. 9. Click the blue square beside Romney and change to a red. Click OK twice and Done. 10. Check the States 2016 Election, change the style using the attribute Win2016S, and click Done.

From 2012 to 2016, six states changed from blue to red. Those states were Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. To illustrate the switch, you’ll use map notes.

11. In the search box, type Florida and press Enter.

12. Click Add to Map Notes. 13. Create map notes for the remaining five states.

14. Save the map, but do not close it.

Q1. Quickly research and explain why those states switched from blue to red.

A1. ______

Step 2: Compare attributes

In this step, the spatial variation of voting in the 2016 election, using county-level data, is shown using predominance mapping, which compares attributes that share a common subject and unit of measurement to see which has the highest value. Color shows the predominant category and transparency shows the strength of the attribute.

1. Open Midterm Election 2018 USA and sign in if necessary. Save the map to your organization as 02 USA Counties Election 2018 . Add appropriate metadata. Remove the existing tags and add individualized tags. 2. If necessary, click the Content button to return to Contents. 3. Check Counties 2016 Election. 4. Click the style icon under Counties 2016 Election. 5. For Choose an attribute to show, select %GOP. 6. Click Add attribute and, if necessary, choose %DEM.

7. Under Select a drawing style, for Predominant Category, click Select. 8. Click Options. 9. Click the square color box next to %GOP and change to red. 10. Click the square color box next to %DEM and change to blue. 11. Click OK twice and Done. 12. Drag USA States (Generalized) and move that layer above Counties 2016 Election.

Alternatively, you can move layers by clicking the three dots at the end and selecting Move up.

13. Click change style under USA States (Generalized) and select Options. 14. Click Symbols and change the fill to no color.

15. Change the Outline to black. 16. Click OK twice, click Done, and save the map.

Q2. Presidential campaigns consume significant amounts of money, time, and people. These costs grow with each election cycle. Candidates cannot campaign everywhere. As a result, campaigns prioritize which states deserve the resources needed to win in the Electoral College. Review your 2016 map, analyze the 2018 map, and then decide which six states — three each for the Republican and Democrat presidential candidates — would provide the greatest likelihood of flipping their way during the 2020 election.

A2. ______

Step 3: Analyze state-level returns

In this step, you’ll analyze state-level returns in Virginia. 1. Save the 02 USA Counties Election 2018 map as 03 Virginia . Add appropriate metadata. Remove tags and add individualized tags. 2. Click the filter icon under the Counties 2016 Election layer and create the expression: state is Virginia.

3. Click Apply Filter and Zoom to and save the map.

Q3. Name six Virginia counties, three each for Republicans and Democrats, which could be good targets for flipping during the 2020 elections. (Hint: the lighter the shade of blue or red, the closer the voting percentage between both parties. Also, you could also open the attribute table for the Counties 2016 Election layer and identify the states with the smallest vote percentages between the two parties.)

A3. ______Step 4: Identify redrawn congressional districts A congressional district is a geographic designation that elects a single member to the US House of Representatives. Most often, state governments redraw the USA’s 435 congressional districts each decade.

The US Constitution mandates reapportionment, which is the equal division of congressional seats based on population. Gerrymandering occurs when a party redraws political boundaries to maximize the number of favorable districts. (The Learn ArcGIS lesson, Redraw Political Boundaries with Public Participation, includes a story map detailing the redistricting process.)

Normally, reapportionment is based on the decennial US Census count; however, judges can order, and legislatures can redraw, new lines during the intervening years. In 2016, a federal judge ordered new congressional lines that ultimately impacted five of Virginia’s districts. The new maps took effect between the 114th US Congress in 2016 and the 115th US Congress in 2018. Two of the layers provided in this step reflect the differences between the 114th and 115th Congress.

1. Save 03 Virginia as 04 Virginia Districts . Add appropriate metadata. Remove tags and add individualized tags. 2. Check on the USA 114th Congressional Districts layer. 3. Filter the layer by creating the expression: state is Virginia.

4. Click Apply Filter. 5. Check USA 115th Congressional Districts. 6. In that layer, click Filter, create the expression STATEEFP is 51, apply the filter, and save the map.

Your goal with this lesson is to identify the five congressional districts in Virginia that had its lines redrawn between the 114th Congress and the 115th Congress. The underlying data supporting those two map layers, as reflected in their attribute tables, do not match. Regardless, you have a combination of options to discover the changes. Among them are:

• Click More Options on each of the congressional district layers and click Create Labels or Manage Labels • For the USA 115th Congressional District layer, the district labels are embedded in CD115FP; for USA 114th Congressional District layer, they’re part of DISTRICT FIPS. You may need to alter the Visible Range scale to make the district numbers appear. • To compare the changes, you can check or uncheck layers as well as change the transparency on USA 115th Congressional Districts. • You can zoom into the districts and count which one have two numbers, which reflect districts which had their lines redrawn. • Click each district to activate pop-ups, which by scrolling through the white arrows, will illustrate how boundaries between the two congressional districts change.

Q4: List the congressional districts that changed between the 114th Congress and the 115th Congress. A4: ______Step 5: Spot trends

In this step, you’ll use predominant mapping to show how congressional districts have voted.

1. Save 04 Virginia Districts as 05 VA Districts Voting . Add appropriate metadata. Remove tags and add individualized tags.

In the previous lesson, you may have changed your map to discover the congressional districts that changed between the 114th Congress and the 115th Congress.

2. If necessary, for the two congressional district layers, in More Options, click Manage Labels, and uncheck Label Features. 3. If necessary, reorder your Contents panel so that the following layers are checked on: • USA 115th Congressional Districts • USA 114th Congressional Districts • USA States (Generalized) • Counties 2016 Election

4. Click Change Style under USA 115th Congressional Districts. For Choose an attribute to show, select Clinton 2016. 5. Click Add attribute and select Trump 2016. 6. For Select a drawing style, in Predominant Category, click Select.

7. Click Options and Done. 8. For USA 115th Congressional Districts, click Change Style and Options. 9. Change the square next to Trump 2016 to red and the square next to Clinton 2016 to blue. Then click OK and Done. 10. For USA 115th Congressional Districts, click More Options and Create Labels. 11. Check Label Features and choose NAMELSAD. 12. Click OK and save the map.

The USA 115th Congressional District layer contains historical data showing Virginia presidential election returns from 2012 and 2008.

13. Using skills you’ve already demonstrated in this lesson, select the appropriate attributes within the USA 115th Congressional Districts layer and illustrate the presidential election returns, by congressional district, from 2012 and 2008.

Q5. How would you describe Virginia’s trend lines during the presidential elections of 2008, 2012, and 2016?

A5. ______

Q6: Look at the 2016 presidential returns. As the Democrat and Republican candidate, which congressional district would you have the best chance of flipping to your side during the 2020 presidential election? (Hint: Open the attribute table and identify the congressional district with the narrowest of victory and defeat margins for President Donald Trump and Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton. From the attribute table, you can click that row and it’s selected on the map.)

A6: ______

Step 6: Recognize polling location gaps

A precinct is among the smallest voting districts recognized by the United States Census Bureau. It’s roughly the size of a neighborhood. A polling place is where ballots are cast. The location, proximity, and structure of a polling station can influence how people vote. For example, voting at a school could prompt people to support an education tax increase. Also, would more precincts in an area shorten lines and increase voter turnout? This exercise involves voting locations in Fairfax County, Virginia. This exercise can be duplicated to your individual state precincts and polling places.

1. Open Midterm Election 2018 Fairfax and sign in to your organization. Save as 06 Fairfax Precincts and Polling Places . Add appropriate metadata. Remove the existing tags and add individualized tags.

You want to know how many polling locations are within a three-minute drive of each other.

2. Click the Content button and check on the Polling Places layer. 3. Point to the Polling Places layer and click Perform Analysis.

4. Click Use Proximity and select Create Drive-Time Areas.

Polling Places is already selected as the default point layer.

5. Under Measure, for Driving Time, change 5 to 3. 6. Uncheck Use current map extent and click Run Analysis.

The geospatial tool could take a few moments to run; when complete, it will add a layer to the top of Contents.

7. Click Change Style under Voting Precincts. 8. Click Options and Symbols. 9. Select No Color for Fill and, if necessary, change the outline color to Black and increase the Line Width to 2 pixels. 10. Click OK twice and Done. 11. If necessary, change the Basemap to Open Street Map and save.

A7. ______

Step 7: Create a story map

Esri Story Maps enable users to combine maps with text, images, and multimedia content. In this step, you’ll create a story map from your six local, state, and national political maps.

1. At the top of the page, click Home and select Content.

2. Check 01Election 2016 Swing States . 3. Click More Options and select Open in Map Viewer.

4. Click Share and click Create a Web App.

5. Click Build a Story Map and click Story Map Series.

6. Click Create Web App. 7. In the Create a New Web App window: • For Title: type 2018 Midterm Election Analysis • For Tags: If necessary, add individualized tags • Click Done 8. Select Tabbed and click Start.

9. Click the blue arrow to advance. 10. In the Add Tab window, type Swing States in the 2016 Election. 11. Select the 01 Election Swing States Map. 12. Click Add. 13. Add descriptive text on the left side panel. Also add any appropriate media. 14. On the ribbon, click Add.

15. In the Add Tab window, add titles, maps, and text until all seven maps have been included in the story map.

In the upper right corner, click Save.

Conclusion

In this lesson, you created, analyzed, and interpreted political maps featuring congressional and presidential elections in Virginia and the United States as well. You also created a story map for sharing. The maps you created could help your clients win in 2020. Exercisl e Answers

Q1. Quickly research and explain why those states switched from blue to red.

A1. (Overall, answers could vary widely; however, the literal answer involves the Electoral College.) According to the US Constitution, the presidential election is not decided by an overall popular vote but rather a total of individual state elections. In 1787, when the US Constitution was written, the framers created the Electoral College so one candidate couldn’t win the presidency by just campaigning in a few states with large populations; instead, by giving smaller-population states more influence, a candidate would be forced to campaign in smaller states as well. In 2016, US President Donald Trump won the six states that changed from 2012 – Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—because he won more votes in those states than did Hillary Clinton.

A2. Answers could vary. Three states required for each candidate. For Democrats: Arizona, Iowa, Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. For Republicans: Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Virginia.

A3. Answers could vary. Each party needs to list three counties. For Democrats: Caroline, Chesterfield, Chesapeake, Essex, Montgomery. For Republicans: Montgomery, Prince Edward, Staunton, Surry, Winchester. Q4. List the congressional districts that changed between the 114th Congress and the 115th Congress.

A4. Congressional districts 1, 2, 3, 4, and 7.

Q5. How would you describe Virginia’s trend lines during the presidential elections of 2008, 2012, and 2016?

A5. They generally remained the same. During those three elections, the Democrat and Republican candidates generally won the same congressional districts. Each election resulted in the Democratic candidate winning Virginia’s 13 Electoral College votes.

Q6. Look at the 2016 presidential returns. As the Democrat and Republican candidate, which congressional district would you have the best chance of flipping to your side during the 2020 presidential election? (Hint: Open the attribute table and identify the congressional district with the narrowest of victory and defeat margins for President Donald Trump and Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton. From the attribute table, you can click that row and it’s selected on the map.)

A6. For President Donald Trump, Congressional District 10. For candidate Hillary Clinton, Congressional District 2.

Q7. Zoom in and analyze the green gaps within Fairfax County. There are the areas which could use more polling locations. In general terms, which areas within the gap areas could use a polling location and which areas shouldn’t get one? A7: Answers may vary. In general, many residential and urban areas in the center and western edges of Fairfax County could use a polling location. Military bases and parks shouldn’t get one. Esri License

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About the Author

Kathryn Keranen is an award-winning teacher and author. She serves as an instructor in Geographic Science at James Madison University and is the co-founder of the award-winning Geospatial Semester. With Bob Kolvoord, she is the co-author of the Making Spatial Decisions series from ESRI Press. Support

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