The Future of Perth
November 2020
Contents
The future of Perth 04
The maturing city 06
Demographic snapshot of Perth 08
Perth the lifestyle city 10
A brief history 14
Timeline of Perth 16
Towards 2050 18
The Future of Perth 03 Mark McCrindle The future of Perth
In 1983 Perth overtook Adelaide as Australia’s before, and these trends are most clearly embodied fourth largest city, and it’s fair to say much has by today’s primary school students, Gen Alpha (born changed in the 37 years since. Australia’s population since 2010). The future of Perth, and indeed the future has exceeded even the most optimistic growth of our planet, will be shaped by these children of the expectations, recently surpassing 25 million people, Millennials who already number more than 3 million and Perth is powering towards being a city of 2.5 in Australia and nearly 10% of Perth’s population. million by 2030. If we want to glimpse the future we need look no further than this emerging generation who have only Perth’s unique geographic positioning on the Swan known a world of wearable tech, online streaming, coastal plain has led to a sprawling north-south AI algorithms and highly-personalised educational metropolis drawing comparisons to cities like Los experiences. Angeles and San Francisco. This growth has brought its share of challenges. State and local governments In a future where today’s school leavers are projected have had to quickly respond to the growing demand to have on average 18 different jobs across 6 for essential services including healthcare, education careers in their lifetime, the ability to upskill and and public amenities. But respond they have, in true adapt to the changing market is essential. Perth’s Aussie fashion, creating world-class hospital and economic success will depend on its ability to provide medical facilities like Fiona Stanley Hospital. Perth’s the infrastructure and policy settings to enable schools and universities are internationally-regarded businesses and workers alike the ability to train, and attract top talent from nearby nations to West upskill and re-skill. The jobs most in demand in the Aussie shores. coming years will leverage technology in healthcare, professional services, construction, and education The world today is more digitally integrated, and training. Perth is well-positioned to take hold of culturally diverse, and globally-minded than ever these emerging opportunities with both hands.
04 The Future of Perth Mark McCrindle
Principal
The Future of Perth 05 Grant Dusting The maturing city
The story of Perth over the last few decades has comparison shows that Western Australia has the been one of a maturing city. The city best known for highest proportion of its population living in the being “the most isolated city in the world” was put capital city. Perth is home to a staggering 79% of on the map for many Gen X’ers and Baby Boomers all West Aussies, much higher than the proportion thanks to the America’s Cup triumph and subsequent of New South Welshmen (and women) who live in hosting of the event in the 1980s, triggering a Sydney (65%) or Taswegians who live in Hobart flurry of government infrastructure investment and (44%). This underscores the significance of Perth not transformation across Fremantle and Perth. only for the state but also our nation.
The mining boom of the 2000s provided a similar So what does the future hold for Perth as we consider boost for a city that had started to lose some of that what the city could look like in 2030 and even 2050? earlier lustre. This sentiment was reflected in Lonely The COVID-19 experience has so far highlighted the Planet’s frank assessment of Perth in the year 2000 location of Western Australia – which has often been as “Dullsville”. But as the resources industry boomed, a tyranny of distance – has served as a strength. WA’s the population soon followed and successive ability to manage the COVID-19 health situation has governments undertook significant long-term so far been exemplary within Australia and indeed infrastructure investments that have forever changed globally, aided by our location and the unique ability the face of the city and helped Perth cope with an to tightly manage our borders. explosion of population growth and urban sprawl. Furthermore, as we lift our eyes to the horizon Visitors to Perth bring a perspective that can be lost and contemplate “the Asian Century”, Perth is on more seasoned sandgropers. Our new arrivals are strategically positioned as the only Australian greeted by a stunning natural landscape with world- capital sharing a time zone with China, Singapore, class beaches and a city boasting internationally- Hong Kong and Malaysia. Combined with the close recognised infrastructure (Perth Arena, Perth Stadium, geographic proximity, this is significant. Elizabeth Quay and a revitalised Northbridge, to name a few). The refreshed cultural infrastructure has In an increasingly connected global society, the been put to good use in recent years, with Perth’s establishment of direct flights to Europe have already annual FRINGE festival now the third largest in the changed travel patterns for business and leisure alike. world providing an economic boost to the state of This maturing city still has much more development $100 million annually. left in it, and with Australia’s population growth primarily driven by overseas migration, Perth can We’re a nation obsessed with the sea, and it seems expect to continue to attract attention on the global this is truer of West Aussies more than anyone else. stage for years to come. While some may be familiar with the stat that 85% of Australians live within 50km of the coast, a national
06 The Future of Perth Grant Dusting
Director of Strategy & McCrindle WA Manager
The Future of Perth 07 Demographic snapshot of Perth
Population Household composition
2,085,973 39% born overseas 32% 25%
Couple family Couple family Gender composition with children without children
Female 50% Male 50%
22% 10%
Lone person Single parent household household Top migrant countries of birth
United Kingdom 10% 4% 7%
New Zealand 3% Group household Other
India 2%
South Africa 2% Generation composition Malaysia 1%
Gen Alpha 0-10 8% Religious affiliation
Gen Z 11-25 19% Christianity 50%
Secular Beliefs* 33% Gen Y 26-40 23%
Not Stated 10% Gen X 41-55 21% Islam 2%
Buddhism 2% Baby Boomers 56-74 21%
Sikhism 1% Builders 75+ 9% Other 2%
* include other spiritual beliefs and no religious affiliation
08 The Future of Perth Demographic snapshot of Perth
The Future of Perth 09 Perth The lifestyle city
Stretching from Two Rocks in the north to the Peel Inlet in the south, the friendly capital city of Western Australia covers a total land area of 6,416 km2. It is home to more than two million people (2,085,973), making it Australia’s fourth largest capital city by population. Geographically, Perth’s population is evenly divided by the Swan River, with 49% living north of the river and 51% living in the south. Despite spanning more than 6,000 km2, the average daily commute time for workers in Perth is just 59 minutes, more than 10% lower than the average for mainland capital cities (66 minutes).
Four in five Western Australians (79%) live in Perth, making Perth the capital city with the highest proportion of its state’s residents in Australia. Incidentally, the capital city with the second highest proportion of its state’s residents is also Perth’s closest neighbour. Adelaide is home to 1.3 million residents, encompassing 77% of South Australia’s population. Despite being Perth’s closest neighbour, the two capital cities are separated by more than Four in five 2,000 km, the equivalent of a 28-hour road trip, crossing the state border Western and time zones along the way. Australians live in Perth
10 The Future of Perth 49%
51%
Map Key
North South
The Future of Perth 11 Map Key
WA Proportion of residents living 79% in capital cities
Perth Mean daily commuting times 59 minutes of employed persons
WA
79%
Perth
59 minutes
Wilkins, R, Laβ, I, Butterworth, P, & Vera-Toscano, E 2019, The Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey: Selected Findings from Waves 1 to 17. Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, University of Melbourne.
12 The Future of Perth Mainland capital city
66 minutes
NT
60%
QLD
49%
Brisbane
67 minutes
SA
78%
NSW
Sydney 66% 71 minutes
VIC Adelaide
56 minutes 77%
Melbourne
65 minutes
TAS
44%
The Future of Perth 13 A brief history The race to a million
The relationship between Perth and Adelaide extends beyond the present day. Although Perth’s population now comfortably outnumbers Adelaide’s by 726,213, this was not always the case. In 1982, Adelaide was the fourth largest city with a population of 962,500. Due to economic growth, however, Perth reached the one million milestone in 1985, a year before Adelaide reached this milestone in 1986. Since then, Perth’s population has grown much faster than Adelaide’s, with Perth’s population reaching two million in 2014, while Adelaide’s sits just above 1.3 million.
In fact, population projections done based on the 1987 population had estimated the upper bound of the Western Australia population to be 2,536,910 in 2019, almost 85,000 shy of the actual population of Western Australia in 2019 (2,621,680). South Australia on the other hand, was estimated to have an upper bound of 1,786,078 in 2019, exceeding the actual 2019 population (1,751,693) by 34,000.
Population of Perth and Adelaide
Perth 1.05M
Perth 1.02M Perth 995.6k Perth 976.8k Adelaide 962.5k
Adelaide 994k Adelaide 1M Adelaide 973.4k Adelaide 984.3k Perth 952.4k
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986
Australia Bureau of Statistics 1988 Australian Demographics Statistics, Mar 1988, cat. no. 3101.0, ABS, Canberra.
14 The Future of Perth Perth 2.5M
Perth 2.09M
Perth 2.02M
Adelaide 1.49M
Adelaide 1.36M
Adelaide 1.3M
2014 Present day 2030
Australian Bureau of Statistics 1985, Projections of the Populations of Australia, States and Territories 1984 to 2021, cat. no. 3222.0, ABS, Canberra. The Future of Perth 15 The timeline of Perth
The Noongar people are the first inhabitants of the south-west corner of Western Australia.
The first European settlers arrive led by Captain James Stirling. His Surveyor- 1829 General mapped out townsites for Guildford, Perth and Fremantle.
The first suburban railway line opens First Premier of Western Australia – Sir 1881 connecting Fremantle, Perth and John Forrest. Guildford. Discovering of gold in Western Australia triggers a gold rush transforming the 1890 struggling British colony. The population of Perth boomed and WA's population more than tripled in size in one decade, from 53,177 in 1891 to 193,601 in 1901. Perth’s population was 154,873 (1/13 its 1920 current size).
Perth is connected to Adelaide and the 1930 rest of Australia by a telephone line.
Gordon Stephenson and John Alister Hepburn prepare a plan for the Perth 1955 metropolitan region, which has been instrumental in Perth's subsequent Opening of the Narrows bridge providing development. direct connection for Perth's northern and 1959 southern suburbs. The largest bridge of its kind in the world at the time. Perth becomes known as the "City of Light" following astronaut John Glenn's orbit around the Earth. Glenn repeated 1962 this line when passing again in 1998.
Perth hosts the Commonwealth Games. Perth's Telethon is established. 1968
The Western Australian yacht Australia II took the America’s Cup from the 1983 Americans after 132 years,5 the same year that Perth took the title of 4th largest capital city from Adelaide. Perth's population reaches one million. 1985
16 The Future of Perth The West Coast Eagles enters the 1987 Australian Football League (previously known as the Victorian Football League).
Carmen Lawrence becomes the first 1990 woman to be Premier of an Australian state. The West Coast Eagles become the first non- 1992 Victorian team to win the AFL premiership. They won again two years later in 1994. The State Government separated the Perth central business district from its surrounding 1994 suburban districts, creating a new City of Perth local government authority. The Fremantle Dockers enter the AFL as 1995 Western Australia's second football team.
The first desalination plant in Australia 2006 commenced operation in Kwinana. The opening of the new Perth to 2007 Mandurah Railway.
Beginning of Peth’s three-year streak as 2009 Australia’s fastest growing capital city8
2014 Opening of Fiona Stanley Hospital.
Perth's population reaches two million, coinciding with the official opening of 2016 Elizabeth Quay. Qantas launches the first direct Perth to London flights. 2018 The new Perth stadium (Optus Stadium) Perth Wildcats’ 34th straight appearance is opened. to the NBL Finals. 2020
The West Coast Eagles achieve a record membership tally of 100,776 and become Perth's population set to reach the first non-Victorian AFL team to top the 2042 AFL membership tally. three million.
Channel 7 Telethon Trust 2020, The History of Telethon, Telethon 7, Stephenson, G & Hepburn, J 1955, Plan for the Metropolitan Region Perth. Perth and Fremantle: Western Australia. Maritime History Department 2014, Australia II, 1983 winner of the O’Brien, S 2009, Perth’s Narrows Bridge celebrates 50 years, Media America’s Cup, Western Australian Museum Statements: Minister’s office, Government of Western Australia. AFL 2019, History, West Coast Eagles, AFL. Western Australia Museum 2012, City of light – 50 years in Space, AFL 2019, Our History, Fremantle Football Club, AFL. Government of Western Australia. Australia Bureau of Statistics 2020, Australian Demographics Statistics, Museum of Perth 2020, 1962 Commonwealth and Paraplegic Games. Sep 2019, cat. no. 3101.0, ABS, Canberra. John Curtin University 2020, About Carmen Lawrence, Carmen Australian Bureau of Statistics 2018, Population Projections, Australia, Lawrence Biography. 2017 (base) – 2066, cat. no. 3222.0, ABS, Canberra. AFL 2019, Classic Clashes: 1992 Elimination Final v Hawks, West Coast South West Aboriginal Land and Sea Council 2020, Connection to Eagles, AFL. Country, Kaartdijin Noongar – Noongar Knowledge: Sharing Noongar City of Vincent 2020, History: About Vincent. Culture. Water Corporation 2020, Perth Seawater Desalination Plant. National Museum Australia 2020, Defining Moments: Founding of Perth. Qantas 2020, Perth to London, non-stop. Public Transport Authority of Western Australia 2018, Our History. Optus Stadium 2020, About Optus Stadium. Western Australia Museum 2017, The Rush for Gold, Government of Western Australia. The Future of Perth 17 The Daily News December 17, 1930, East-West ‘Phone, Perth, W.A. 18 The Future of Perth Towards 2050 The growing city of Perth
Growth of more than 346,000 over the past external environments. While we can all hope decade that global pandemics will not become a regular occurrence, business disruptions will continue As Australia’s fourth most populous capital indefinitely as the pace of social, demographic, city, Perth’s population growth over the past generational and technological change keep decade is also a fitting fourth in Australia. From a moving at lightspeed around us. population of 1.7 million in 2009, Perth has grown in number by more than 346,000 residents to its In the short term, COVID-19 and the resulting current population of 2,085,973. This growth also restricted international borders has impaired accounts for 9% of Australia’s total population Australia’s population growth, bringing to a halt growth over that period. at least temporarily the net overseas migration component that was comprising 60% of Perth growing in the south and north west Australia’s annual population growth.
Over the past decade, the population in Perth's Given Western Australia’s annual net overseas south east, south west, and north west have each migration of 18,000 people, annual population increased by almost 100,000 residents. The north growth will reduce by 57% should international east has been lagging behind, with population border restrictions continue for an entire year. growth just shy of 50,000 people. Recent infrastructure investment in major road and rail Notwithstanding potential temporary impacts transport routes, however, are facilitating a host of of COVID-19, the population growth outlook for new land developments. future years remains positive. Perth’s demand for skills and its attractiveness as a lifestyle city While Mandurah to the south contains the will continue to act as pull factors for migration smallest residential population (103,467), and often through this decade and beyond. Western considered a separate city, it has been growing Australia’s success with managing COVID-19, its at the fastest rate over the past ten years (27%). economic opportunities and affordable lifestyles Mandurah is growing twice as fast as Perth – Inner may even drive up the interstate migration (13%), the slowest growing area in Perth. component of population growth.
Growth in a COVID-19 world As we look at the projected population towards 2030 and 2050, it is likely that the effect of the The year 2020 so far has seen an unprecedented global pandemic will have only slight impact use of the term unprecedented. The COVID-19 on the population figures. But could the “most pandemic and associated economic recession has isolated city in the world” become Perth’s biggest disrupted much of the normal ways of doing and marketing tool in a COVID-19 world? Only time planning. More than ever organisations have been will tell. forced to adapt and respond quickly to changing
Tudge, A 2019, Congestion solutions for Perth's north-east underway, Media releases, Minister office.
The Future of Perth 19 Population growth in Greater Perth
Suburb 2009 2019 # Change % Change
Perth - South East 432,884 521,865 88,981 21%
Perth - South West 352,911 436,986 84,075 24%
Perth - North West 487,331 570,930 83,599 17%
Perth - North East 222,378 269,883 47,505 21%
Mandurah 81,585 103,467 21,882 27%
Perth - Inner 162,253 182,842 20,589 13%
Largest suburbs (SA2) by population
# Suburb 2019
1 Ellenbrook 43,594
2 Baldivis 40,512
3 Perth City 36,226
4 Madeley - Darch - Landsdale 29,146
5 Wanneroo 27,378
6 Rivervale - Kewdale - Cloverdale 27,315
7 Forrestdale - Harrisdale - Piara Waters 26,344
8 Dianella 24,939
9 Butler - Merriwa - Ridgewood 24,474
10 Canning Vale - East 24,353
Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2s) are designed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent a community that interacts together socially and economically.
20 The Future of Perth Perth
North West
9
Perth 5 North East 4 1
8 Perth
Inner 3 6
Perth 10
South West 7 Perth
South East
2
Mandurah
The Future of Perth 21 Increasing family orientation
Across Perth, the largest proportion of households are occupied by couple families with children (32%), followed by couple families without children (25%) and lone person households (22%). Combined with one parent families (10%), however, more than two in five households in Perth are families with children (42%).
Perth’s high degree of family orientation is also increasing. The growth in family households over the past decade accounts for almost half of all household growth in Perth (47%), leading also to the growth in young people and students.
Household growth over the past decade
Couple family without +39,038 children
Couple family +55,923 with children
One parent family +12,567
Other family +1,690
Lone person household +20,900
Group household +6,792
Other household +8,841
22 The Future of Perth Independent sector leading the fast growth of students in Perth
There has been an increase of more than 70,000 students in Perth over the past decade. Proportionally, this represents an increase of one in three students (33%) over just ten years. This fast growth in students, however, is not uniform across the sectors.
Three in five students in Perth attend a government school (62%), which has been growing at the same rate as the overall number of students (33%). The number of students attending independent schools on the other hand, is growing faster than both the government and Catholic sector. The independent sector’s growth rate of 41% is eight percentage points faster than the government sector (33%) and 1.5 times as fast as the Catholic sector (28%), showcasing Perth’s increasing preference towards independent education.
Student growth over the past decade
Government Catholic Independent
+33% +28% +41%
Student affiliation by proportion
Independent 19%
Catholic 20% Government 62%
The Future of Perth 23 24 The Future of Perth Growing cultural and linguistic diversity
Perth’s population growth has been partly driven by overseas migration. At present, almost two in five Perth residents were born overseas (39%), and one in five speak a language other than English at home (21%).
Perth’s cultural and linguistic diversity is also growing. Over the past ten years, the number of Perth residents born overseas has been increasing at 2.5 times the rate of Australian-born residents (50% cf. 19% 2006-2016). Linguistic diversity has been growing at an even faster rate. The number of residents who speak a language other than English at home has been growing more than five times as fast as residents who only speak English (93% cf. 18%).
Residents born overseas Residents who speak a language other than English at home
Born in Australia ● Born Overseas ● English ● Other Language ●
21% 39% 61% 79%
# Top 10 migrant countries of birth Top 10 non-English languages
1 United Kingdom 201,199 Mandarin 45,654
2 New Zealand 61,332 Italian 26,752
3 India 46,665 Vietnamese 19,397
4 South Africa 35,260 Cantonese 18,831
5 Malaysia 28,226 Arabic 13,740
6 China 25,899 Tagalog 12,335
7 Philippines 24,621 Punjabi 11,784
8 Italy 17,473 Afrikaans 11,389
9 Ireland 16,108 Hindi 10,173
10 Vietnam 15,122 Indonesian 10,119
The Future of Perth 25 Economic snapshot of Perth
Being the capital city with the largest proportion of its state’s residents, Perth is the main driver of Western Australia’s economy which contributes $285.6 billion per year towards Australia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Per capita, WA’s Gross State Product (GSP) is 42% higher than the nation’s GDP per capita ($109,565 cf. $77,347 during 2018-19FY). Mining accounts for 30% of WA’s GSP, followed by business and property services (9%) and construction (8%). WA’s involvement in the global market is also evident with merchandise exports contributing to more than half of the state’s GSP (58%). As the global market continues to open up, it is likely that the growing economy will keep step with the population increase on Australia’s west coast.
WA GSP v. Aus GDP
WA GSP per Australia GDP $109,565 $77,347 capita per capita
Western Australia produces an average economic output per person that is 42% higher than the national average.
Department of Jobs, Tourism, Science and Innovation 2020, Western Australia Economic Profile April 2020, Government of Western Australia.
26 The Future of Perth Proportion of GSP
$146.1 B Goods producing industries 9%
$112.4 B Service industries 39% 51%
$27.1 B Dwelling ownership and other items
Top industries
Mining $ 103.1 B
Business and property services $ 25.2 B
Construction $ 17.6 B
Retail and wholesale trade $ 16.8 B
Dwelling ownerships $ 16.1 B
Top export markets
China Japan UK South Korea Singapore
$96.1 B $24 B $12.4 B $10.3 B $7.4 B
Australian Bureau of Statistics 2019, Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, 2018-19, cat. no. 5220.0, ABS, Canberra. Australian Bureau of Statistics 2019, Australia National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, Jun 2019, cat. no. 5206.0, ABS, Canberra. Australian Bureau of Statistics 2019, International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Sep 2019, cat. no. 5368.0, ABS, Canberra.
The Future of Perth 27 Increase in jobs as the population grows
With an ever-expanding economy, the number of jobs in Perth is also projected to increase. Over the next five years, the number of jobs in Perth is projected to increase by 70,043. This would comprise more than 86% of total job growth in Western Australia (81,031) in this time. Industries expected to experience the largest growth include health care and social assistance (13,409), professional, scientific and technical services (11,094) and mining (9,673).
Job growth over the next five years
Perth 70,043 10,988 Rest of WA
28 The Future of Perth Department of Jobs and Small Business Projections
Industry 2019 2024
Health Care and Social Assistance 132,576 145,985 +13,409
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 95,122 106,216 +11,094
Construction 101,615 103,259 +1,644
Retail Trade 99,691 101,213 +1,522
Education and Training 89,366 97,493 +8,127
Mining 75,139 84,812 +9,673
Accommodation and Food Services 75,136 81,713 +6,577
Public Administration and Safety 67,009 73,454 +6,445
Manufacturing 70,435 72,608 +2,173
Transport, Postal and Warehousing 51,137 53,251 +2,114
Other Services 47,015 50,898 +3,883
Administrative and Support Services 35,189 35,987 +798
Wholesale Trade 32,226 32,555 +329
Financial and Insurance Services 25,881 25,500 -381
Arts and Recreation Services 23,005 24,347 +1,342
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 18,217 18,175 -42
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 16,239 17,775 +1,536
Information Media and Telecommunications 12,205 12,359 +154
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 8,449 8,093 -356
Total (All Industries) 1,075,650 1,145,693 70,043
Department of Employment, Skills, Small and Family Business 2019, Regional Projections – interactive The Future of Perth 29 tool, Labour Market Information Portal, Australian Government. 10
9
Infrastructure supports and boosts population growth
Along with demographic and economic changes, Perth is also undergoing massive infrastructure transformation. Billions of dollars are being invested in significant infrastructure across the city. With the trajectory of growth and transformation, and the expanding role that Perth will play in Australia’s increasingly globalised economy, future infrastructure projects are set to provide a platform as well as further pull factor for population growth for Perth as it marches toward 3 million. 8
11
6
7 2 4
3 1
12
5
30 The Future of Perth Major developments
1 - Elizabeth Quay 8 - Morley - Ellenbrook Line
• Total investment - $2.62 billion • The 21km rail line extending existing railway line at • 800 new dwellings - 400 new hotel rooms Bayswater right through Perth’s eastern suburbs to • 200,000 m2 commercial/office space Ellenbrook. Perth’s largest single public transport project • 25,000 m2 retail since the Mandurah Line, with new stations including • Staged completion through 2020 and beyond Ellenbrook, Whiteman Park, Malaga, Noranda and Morley • Expected commencement 2021
2 - Perth City Link 9 - Northlink WA • Total investment - $5.3 billion • Mixed use development reconnecting the CBD and • Total investment – $1 billion Northbridge and sinking of the rail line to create a world • Providing a key road connection in Western Australia’s class transit hub freight network, constructing 37km of new highway from • Staged completion through to 2020 and beyond Morley to Muchea, north of Perth • Completed April 2020
3 - Riverside (East Perth) 10 - Yanchep rail extension • Total investment - $2.11 billion • 4,000 new dwellings • Total investment – $531 million • 90,000 m2 of commercial/retail space • Extending the Joondalup line 14.5km from Butler to • Staged completion through to 2020 and beyond Yanchep supporting the growing northern suburbs • New rail stations at Alkimos, Eglinton and Yanchep • Expected completion late 2022
4 - Perth Stadium
• Total investment - $820.7 million 11 - Perth City Deal • 60,000 seat sports stadium • Public open spaces, cultural attractions • Total investment – $1.5 billion and residential developments • Announced in September 2020, a partnership between • Opened January 2018 the Commonwealth Government, State Government and City of Perth is set to revitalise the Perth CBD Includes: • Moving Edith Cowan University law and business schools 5 - Byford Rail Extension into the CBD along with the Western Australian Academy • Total investment – $481 million of Performing Arts (WAAPA). • Extending the Armadale line 8km through the Shire of • Murdoch University to create a vertical campus including Serpentine-Jarrahdale, Australia’s fastest growing local an eSports Stadium linked with Singapore and East Asia government area over the past decade (2009-2019) • Curtin University will build a CBD knowledge • Final business case expected to be completed late 2020 and innovation precinct • Redevelopment of Perth Concert Hall into a world-class music venue • Set to bring more than 25,000 students and 6 - New Western Australian Museum staff into the CBD • Total investment - $428 million • ECU completion slated for 2025. Phased • Cultural attraction/retail construction through to 2030 • Completion November 2020
12 - Thornlie - Cockburn Link 7 - Forrestfield - Airport Link • Total investment - $716 million • Total investment – $1.86 billion • Perth’s first east-west cross line connection connecting • An 8.5km three-station railway providing an the existing Thornlie line to Cockburn Central station underground rail link to the Perth airport and on the Mandurah line creating a 20-minute train ride between the city and the • Will create new rail stations at Nicholson Road and eastern suburbs Ranford Road in Canning Vale • Expected to open late 2021 • Construction commenced 2020, expected completion 2023 32 The Future of Perth Towards 2050
Population growth
2030 2040 2050
WA Perth WA Perth WA Perth
Population 3,084,964 2,502,885 3,558,535 2,930,338 4,023,264 3,358,567
Annual growth 47,796 42,646 46,991 42,848 46,081 42,741
Median age 38.3 37.3 38.7 37.7 39.3 38.3
Generations
2030 2040 2050
Age WA Perth Age WA Perth Age WA Perth
Builders 85+ 2% 2% 95+ 0.1% 0.1% 105+ 0.001% 0.001%
Boomers 66-84 11% 11% 76-94 5% 5% 86-104 1% 2%
Gen X 51-65 18% 17% 61-75 13% 12% 71-85 7% 7%
Gen Y 36-50 21% 21% 46-60 19% 19% 56-70 16% 15%
Gen Z 21-35 22% 23% 31-45 22% 22% 41-55 20% 20%
Gen Alpha 6-20 19% 19% 16-30 20% 21% 26-40 22% 23%
Gen Beta 0-5 8% 8% 1-15 19% 19% 11-25 19% 19%
Gen Gamma - - - 0 1% 1% 0-10 14% 14%
The Future of Perth 33 How did we do this?
By collating and analysing data in the realms of demography, economy, and society, we were able to put together a summary of Perth and examine the interactions between major and minor trends that are influencing the friendly city.
Informed by historical trends, government policies, strategic plans, and mathematical modelling, we project forward with confidence to uncover the future of Perth.
What now?
We expect this report to be used by leaders in business, policy makers, developers, and those guiding and shaping the next generation in Perth. We hope that this tool is useful as we collectively work together in seeing Perth continue to grow and thrive as a key part of the Asia-Pacific region.
By understanding the growing and changing population of Perth, decision makers will have the opportunity to lead confidently into the future.
How to use data analysis in planning for the future?
Knowing the future of an area allows us to lead with confidence. Making informed, evidenced-based decisions help us stay a step ahead. There is no shortage of information out there, the knowledge and understanding of what to do with this information and how to apply it, however, can at times feel overwhelming.
If you are looking to grow, you may have a hunch about an area for your next business decision, but you want more information before you commit. In many instances demographic data, industry trends, and shifting population are strong indicators of the viability of new initiatives. By gathering evidence- based, location-focused insights, your organisation will be equipped to make strategic decisions with confidence and conviction.
Who are we?
For more than a decade, McCrindle has been helping provide a clearer picture by using data to inform strategic planning and crucial decisions. We want to help you lead confidently towards 2030.
Through a Site Analysis we will be able to provide a clearer picture of the unique qualities of an area now and into the future. We deliver a key insights report, an online interactive map of your area, and a boardroom presentation to unpack the key insights and applications of the demographic analysis. We don’t just provide the information, we guide the journey.
34 The Future of Perth Let's get started!
Getting started in uncovering a clearer picture for your strategic decision-making is easy.
You can contact our Perth office by email or phone using the contact details on the back page.
The Future of Perth 35 Get in touch
Phone 1800 873 637 mccrindleresearch
Web mccrindle.com.au mccrindle_
Email [email protected] mccrindleresearch
Address Perth office mccrindle Suite 8, 126 Broadway, Crawley, WA 6009
Sydney office Suite 105, 29 Solent Circuit Norwest, NSW 2153