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U E .S C .D R E E Water Levels of the Great Lakes PA M RT OM MENT OF C

September 2015 The Great Lakes, their connecting waterways, and their watersheds, comprise the largest surface freshwater system on the planet. The monthly, seasonal, and annual surface water elevations of the lakes fluctuate in response to a variety of factors. This brochure provides a brief overview of historical Great Lakes water level patterns and current water levels, as well as the research NOAA conducts through its Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) on seasonal water level forecasts.

Evaporation and Great Lakes Water Levels What a difference a few years make! All of the Great Lakes are above their monthly average levels for early September. As you know if you vacation near the shores of the upper Great Lakes, this is a marked change from just two years ago, particularly for Lakes Michigan and Huron.

Michigan- Departure from Date Huron water monthly average level (ft) level (ft) 8/2013 577.69 -1.41 8/2014 578.80 -.3 8/2015 579.79 +.69 NASA satellite image from December 1999 shows evaporation Over a span of two years, the lake-wide monthly average water level for from the Great Lakes that peaks in Lake Michigan and Lake Huron has gone from nearly 1-1/2 feet below the late fall/early winter when cold the monthly average to 2/3 of a foot above the average level. It’s worth air masses pass over the relatively noting that during the 15 years of low levels on Lakes Superior, Michigan, warm surface waters. and Huron, levels on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario remained close to their monthly averages. What caused these recent dramatic fluctuations in the to improve predictive models which have relied on modeled over-lake water levels of the upper Great Lakes? evaporation. Scientists believe high evaporation in the late 1990’s played a large role in the 15-year period of very low water levels. Recently, very low evaporation in 2014 contributed to the rapid recovery of water levels of the upper lakes to above average, along with consistently above-average precipitation in 2013 and 2014.

How are water levels predicted? Forecasts of Great Lakes monthly-average water levels are typically based on computer simulation models. One example is the Great Lakes Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS), developed by NOAA- This graph of Lake Michigan-Huron levels for the past 20 years reveals GLERL, which combines historical meteorological data with a series both seasonal fluctuation and longer periods of high and low levels. of mathematical models and climate forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Light gray lines show the minimum and maximum levels recorded for Prediction Center to simulate multiple variables. The most important these lakes in more than 150 years of records. variables are overlake precipitation, overlake evaporation, and rainfall- induced runoff. The sum of these variables (“net” supply of water to Precipitation, Evaporation, and Runoff the basin) is routed through the lakes and connecting channels using More than a third of the Great Lakes basin area is occupied by surface models that reflect flow patterns and regulation rules in order to produce water. As a result, air-water interactions play a large role in the weather a band of probability-based future water levels. and climate of our region (think ‘lake-effect snow’). Precipitation over the lakes, evaporation, and runoff are the factors that control the FOR MORE INFORMATION seasonal fluctuation of Great Lakes water levels. Hydrologists are http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/now/wlevels/levels.html analyzing the relationships between these water budget components; trying to improve our data to enhance the accuracy of predictive [email protected] Historical water level dynamics, 734-741-2444 models. Evaporation over the lakes is a difficult quantity to measure. seasonal forecasts Generally peaking in the fall to early winter, evaporation is highest [email protected] Hourly and daily water level 734-741-2293 when cold air masses are blowing across warm water. A small network forecasts of seven stations on islands and lighthouse towers across the Great [email protected] Decadal water level forecasts 734-741-2055 Lakes has been operating for the past 5-8 years. This data will be used [email protected] GLERL Information Services 734-741-2210 The Current Outlook for Great Lakes levels The research-oriented forecast generated by NOAA-GLERL’s AHPS on September 15 indicates that the water levels of Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, and Erie are expected to follow their typical seasonal trends at above average levels; remaining above their monthly and long-term averages into summer of 2016. The uncertainty expressed in the forecast shown here is based on observed weather patterns and Great Lakes water levels from 1948 to present, along with NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s regional forecasts. The 5 and 95% bands are expected to contain the observed water level 90% of the time. The NOAA-GLERL AHPS forecasts are used by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Environment Canada as part of their operational water level forecasting systems (http://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Missions/GreatLakesInformation/GreatLakesWaterLevels/ WaterLevelForecast/MonthlyBulletinofGreatLakesWaterLevels.aspx).

606 Lake Superior 184 −−− −−−−−−− 602 183 Observations Forecasts 95% 598 monthly average water level − 182 80% long−term mean water level − Forecasts for Sept 2015 50% (1860−2015) − − through June 2016 20% ) 178 − 584 Lake Michigan−Huron − 5% } − 95% ’3−month ahead’ forecasts 5% } 177 − for past 13 months , IGLD85) − 580 −−−−−−−−−

176 eet, IGLD85 576 Lake Erie 175 ation (f

−−− v ation (meters −−−−−−− 572 v 174

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(Forecast for Lake Ontario not provided due to limitations 250 76 Lake Ontario of accurately modeling the ace W

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Past Future 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

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GREAT LAKES SYSTEM PROFILE What is IGLD? The Great Lakes and their respective watersheds and IGLD refers to the International Great Lakes Datum, an elevation waterways all flow downhill to the ocean. Within the Great benchmark (reference point) against which all water level gauging stations Lakes system, water flows from Lake Superior via the St. in the Great Lakes are compared. This reference point was last established Marys River into Lake Huron. Lakes Michigan and Huron around 1985. IGLD requires updating about every 30 years because the are joined at the Straits of Mackinac, which allows these land surface around the Great Lakes is constantly changing in elevation two lakes to act as one hydrologic system. The upper lakes due to the ‘bounce back’ of the earth’s crust following the retreat of the meet the lower lakes at the Huron-Erie corridor, which is glaciers during the last ice age (also referred to as isostatic rebound). comprised of the St. Clair River, Lake St. Clair, and the Detroit River. Lake Erie Elevation 601 ft. Elev 577 ft. Elev 572 ft. Elev 569 ft. Niagara Falls flows over Niagara Falls Lake Iroquois St. Clair depth Dam Beauharnois St. Clair 210 ft. Dam and into Lake Ontario Elev 243 ft. Elev River Detroit Lake 152 ft. River Erie Elev 69 ft. before flowing through the Lake Lake St. Francis Elev 20 ft. Elev 0 ft. Huron St. Lawrence River St. Lawrence River into the Lake depth Atlantic Ocean. Michigan 750 ft. Atlantic depth Lake Ocean 923 ft. Ontario Lake depth Superior 802 ft. depth 1333 ft. NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, 4840 S. State Rd. Ann Arbor, MI 48108, 734-741-2235 Credit: NOAA GLERL