Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon

© 2010 PREPARED The European Commission is funding the Collaborative project ‘PREPARED Enabling Change’ (PREPARED) within the context of the Seventh Framework Programme 'Environment'.All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a database or retrieval system, or published, in any form or in any way, electronically, mechanically, by print, photoprint, microfilm or any other means without prior written permission from the publisher

COLOPHON

Title Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon.

Report number PREPARED 2013.023

Deliverable number D1.4.2 Author(s) Maria Adriana Cardoso, Maria do Céu Almeida, Paula Vieira, Ana Luís, Basílio Martins, José Martins, Conceição David, Maria João Telhado, Sofia Baltazar, Fernando Fernandes, Rita Alves, Vanessa Martins, Paula Aprisco, Alexandre Rodrigues Quality Assurance Rafaela Matos Acknowledgments Vítor Martins, Cecília Alexandre, Maria José Franco, Luís Simas, Maria Emília Castela, José Gato, Pedro Botelho, José Sá Fernandes, Lília Azevedo, Célia Reis, Pedro Póvoa, António Frazão.

This report is: R = Restricted

Summary

In the scope of WA1 and WA2 of PREPARED Project, testing of the proposed Water Cycle Safety Plan Framework developed by Almeida et al. (2010) (D.2.1.1) was carried out as a demonstration in the city of Lisbon, Portugal. The demonstration started from the whole urban area relevant to Lisbon and was detailed to the Alcântara catchment, the largest catchment in Lisbon. This report describes the implementation process, detailing the work for the integrated level, and giving a summary of developments at system level. Examples of the results obtained are presented to illustrate the application. The initial proposed methodology was followed and those steps where implementation difficulties were identified contributed to improve the proposed framework resulting in the final framework described in Almeida et al. (2013d).

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 2 - 30 December 2013

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 3 - 30 December 2013

Contents

1 Introduction ...... 8

2 Case study description ...... 10 2.1 Lisbon demonstration city ...... 10 2.2 Alcântara catchment...... 13 2.2.1 Relevance and general description 13 2.2.2 Water supply system description 14 2.2.3 Sewer system description 16

3 Implementation of the WCSP at the integrated level ...... 26 3.1 WCSP  1. Commitment and establishment of water cycle safety policy and scope... 26 3.1.1 Project team 26 3.1.2 Participant stakeholders description 28 3.1.3 Team coordinator 30 3.1.4 Team modus operandi 31 3.1.5 Scope of WCSP 33 3.1.6 Time frame to develop the WCSP 33 3.1.7 Formal requirements 34 3.1.8 Water cycle safety policy 36 3.1.9 Criteria for subsequent risk analysis 36 3.2 WCSP  2. Urban water cycle characterisation ...... 37 3.2.1 Water cycle description and flow diagram 37 3.3 WCSP  3. Preliminary risk identification in the water cycle ...... 38 3.3.1 Supporting tools 38 3.3.2 Relevant hazards 39 3.3.3 Potential events, risk sources and risk factors 40 3.4 WCSP  4. Preliminary risk analysis and evaluation in the water cycle...... 43 3.4.1 Supporting tools 43 3.4.2 Likelihood and consequences for each event 44 3.4.3 Level of risk and risk evaluation for each event 46 3.5 WCSP  5. Development of system safety plans (SSP) ...... 47 3.6 WCSP  6. Integrated risk analysis and evaluation...... 47 3.7 WCSP  7. Integrated risk treatment ...... 47 3.7.1 Supporting tools 47 3.7.2 Risk reduction measures 48 3.7.3 Comparison, prioritization and selection of risk reduction measures, risk treatment program and assessment of residual risk 50 3.8 WCSP  8. Management and communication programs and protocols WCSP  9. Monitoring and review...... 50

4 Achievements and lessons learned ...... 54

References ...... 56

Annex 1  Characterization of the example events from Table 7 ...... 58

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 4 - 30 December 2013

List of figures

Figure 1 – Lisbon demonstration city location ...... 10 Figure 2 – Lisbon urban area and water systems...... 11 Figure 3 – Lisbon demonstration city ...... 11 Figure 4 – Changes in precipitation ...... 12 Figure 5 – Examples of rainfall related problems in Lisbon ...... 12 Figure 6 – Alcântara catchment in Lisbon ...... 14 Figure 7 – Lisbon water supply system ...... 15 Figure 8 – Alcântara water supply system and DMAs...... 15 Figure 9 – Alcântara stormwater and wastewater system ...... 16 Figure 10 – Alcântara original hydrologic model ...... 17 Figure 11 – Alcântara wetlands system ...... 18 Figure 12 – Types of cross-sections ...... 19 Figure 13 – Oval cross section ...... 19 Figure 14 – Rectangular and inverted U cross section ...... 19 Figure 15 – Cross-handle arch and rectangular cross section shapes...... 20 Figure 16 – Caneiro de Alcântara ...... 21 Figure 17 – Cross section of caneiro de Alcântara ...... 21 Figure 18 – Confluence of the two branches of caneiro de Alcântara ...... 22 Figure 19 – Areas of the Alcântara subsystem ...... 23 Figure 20 – Alcântara WWTP ...... 24 Figure 21 – Lisbon demonstration meeting – risk events location ...... 31 Figure 22 – Lisbon demonstration meeting – risk events characterisation ...... 32 Figure 23 – Lisbon demonstration meeting – risk reduction measures location ...... 33 Figure 24 – Water systems for the Lisbon - Alcântara demonstration case ...... 37 Figure 25 – Water cycle flow diagram ...... 38 Figure 26 – Tools developed to support the application of the WCSP framework (Almeida et al., 2013a) ...... 39 Figure 27 – Vulnerability to flooding in Lisbon ...... 42 Figure 28 – Direct tidal effect in Lisbon ...... 42 Figure 29 – Risk identification and evaluation - risk events location ...... 43

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 5 - 30 December 2013

List of tables

Table 1 – WC level team composition ...... 27 Table 2 –Meetings for the development of the WCSP ...... 31 Table 3 – Timeframe for developing WCSP at integrated level...... 34 Table 4 – Discharge requirements for treated wastewater in Alcântara WWTP ...... 35 Table 5 – Requirements for treated wastewater in Alcântara WWTP for reuse in washing ...... 35 Table 6 – Requirements for treated wastewater in Alcântara WWTP for reuse in irrigation ...... 36 Table 7 – Examples of the events and related hazards, risk sources and risk factors identified for Alcântara...... 41 Table 8 – Examples of likelihood and consequence classification for the Alcântara events ...... 45 Table 9 – Examples of risk class for the Alcântara events...... 46 Table 10 – Examples of risk reduction measures identified for Alcântara ...... 49

Acronyms

DMA Demand management areas ERP Emergency response plan RMF Risk management framework RMP Risk management process RRM Risk reduction measure SOP Standard operating procedures SSP System safety plan RIDB Risk identification database RRDB Risk reduction database WCSP Water cycle safety plan WSP Water safety plan

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 6 - 30 December 2013

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 7 - 30 December 2013

1 Introduction

Potential effects of climate dynamics on the urban water cycle can involve the aggravation of existing conditions as well as the occurrence of new hazards or risk factors. The challenges created by climate changes require an integrated approach for dealing with existing and expected levels of risk. Given the interactions of urban water and natural systems, adaptation measures should address all water cycle components and their interactions (Almeida et al., 2013a). The Urban Water Cycle (UWC) often involves several stakeholders dealing with specific systems of the cycle such as water supply, wastewater and stormwater systems and water bodies. Therefore, risk management in the UWC can be beneficial allowing an integrated approach to incorporate the interdependencies between systems. The application of the initial WCSP framework described in deliverable D.2.1.1 (Almeida et al., 2010) to the cities allowed a validation of the methodology itself as well as of the tools developed within PREPARED to support the application (e.g., risk identification database, risk reduction database). The initial framework was followed and during the implementation process some opportunities for improvement of the initial WCSP framework were identified, resulting in the final framework described in deliverable D.2.1.4 (Almeida et al., 2013a). This report describes the implementation process, detailing the work for the integrated level, and giving a summary of developments at system level. Examples of the results obtained are presented to illustrate the application. The demonstration started from the whole urban area relevant to Lisbon and was detailed to the Alcântara catchment, the largest catchment in Lisbon.

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 8 - 30 December 2013

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 9 - 30 December 2013

2 Case study description

2.1 Lisbon demonstration city

The proposed Water Cycle Safety Plan (WCSP) framework was applied to the demonstration city of Lisbon (Figure 1), for testing and validation of the framework as well as of the tools developed to facilitate implementation of WCSP. The demonstration started from the whole urban area relevant to Lisbon and was detailed to the Alcântara catchment, the largest catchment in Lisbon.

Figure 1 – Lisbon demonstration city location

Lisbon is a historic major European harbour city with a rich built heritage. It is the administrative capital of Portugal, seat of most national political institutions and major administration bodies, and an important centre for business and services, of national and international relevance. The city of Lisbon has around 550 000 inhabitants (2011), occupying an area of about 85 km2, a population density around 6500 inhabitants/km2 (Figure 2). Lisbon municipality has administrative boundaries with three other municipalities and a densely occupied riverfront with 19 km long, facing the estuary, approximately 5 NM from open sea as presented in Figure 3 (Telhado et al., 2014). Lisbon city is located along the northern side of the Tagus river mouth. The Tagus estuary is one of the largest in Europe and is exposed to receiving several urban and agricultural pollutant loads. The river Tagus is an international river, being a large part of the catchment in Spain, and has several dams that allowed controlling floods in an effective way.

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 10 - 30 December 2013

Figure 2 – Lisbon urban area and water systems

Image source: http://www.visitlisboa.com/SubToolBar/FOTOS/Lisboa-Zona-Ribeirinha.aspx Figure 3 – Lisbon demonstration city

Lisbon has a temperate climate, classified as Mediterranean climate, and is characterised by dry and hot summers and wet and fresh winter periods. The climate change trends are average air temperature increase, decrease of annual and non-wet season rainfall, increase of wet-season rainfall and of frequency of intense rainfall events (Figure 4), average sea level rise, and increase of frequency of coastal floods.

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 11 - 30 December 2013

Relative change in the seasonal precipitation amounts in Observed changes in annual precipitation 1961-2006 (mm per decade) Winter (DJF) (Dankers & Hiederer, 2008) (ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org), ECA&D (http://eca.knmi.nl)) Figure 4 – Changes in precipitation

Lisbon main issues (Figure 5) and challenges related with climate change are the following:

. Increase of runoff flows and associated risks;

. Flooding and overflows resulting from limited hydraulic capacity of the sewer network;

. Meteorological droughts that can severely impact drinking water consumption;

. Water quality deterioration in natural water bodies especially relevant for recreational uses resulting from sewer systems wet weather overflows and dry weather permanent discharges;

. Impacts on WWTP from I/I increase reducing treatment efficiency.

Figure 5 – Examples of rainfall related problems in Lisbon

Lisbon sewer system is very complex. It includes combined, separate and partially separate sewers, dendritic and looped sewer networks, and sewers of very different ages, dimensions and materials.

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 12 - 30 December 2013

The water level in the Tagus estuary receiving waters is dominated by the ocean tide. During high tide, the downstream restrictions to flows in sewer networks increase the risks of flooding at the lower Lisbon areas, during rain events. This is also important since some urban areas in the Lisbon centre have elevations of just 0.20 m above the maximum high tide. On the other hand, as the Tagus estuary is intensively used all over the year for recreational activities, such as sailing, water quality is a crucial issue, namely in terms of pathogenic concentrations and aesthetics.

2.2 Alcântara catchment

2.2.1 Relevance and general description The implementation of WCSP at the integrated level in Lisbon was detailed to the Alcântara catchment (Figure 6) with a total area of 6 300 ha, being 4 802 ha within the Lisbon municipality, which corresponds to circa half of Lisbon’s area. The relevance of this area as case study is due to its wide range of interconnected systems, stakeholders and the vulnerability to extreme climate events, as part of the urban area corresponding to an ancient riverbed. Moreover, the proximity to the Tagus River and the fact of being the site for the largest Wastewater Treatment Plant are reasons for this implementation. The Alcântara catchment is integrated in the complex hydrographic network of the municipality of Lisbon, being one of the most important watersheds that flow into the Tagus River in the city of Lisbon. To this catchment flows the rainwater drained by a part of the Municipality of Amadora (west side of Lisbon) and also inside Lisbon, the neighbourhoods of Benfica, S. Domingos de Benfica, Carnide, Nossa Senhora de Fátima, Santo Condestável, Prazeres and Alcântara. Currently, with rare exceptions, natural streams in the Lisbon municipality are not visible today. Constraints imposed by urbanization and the consequent need for a structured stormwater and wastewater drainage led to changes in the paths, underground channelization or to landfill of some streams that over time were still persisting.

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 13 - 30 December 2013

Figure 6 – Alcântara catchment in Lisbon

2.2.2 Water supply system description About 90 per cent of the supply comes from the Castelo do Bode dam, owned by EDP (the Portuguese Company of Electricity). Within this sub-system, water is treated at Asseiceira WTP, following a scheme comprising pre- chlorination, mineralization, coagulation/flocculation, flotation, oxidation (ozone), filtration, pH adjustment and final disinfection (chlorine) (Figure 7). This WTP, built in 1987 with a capacity to treat 500 000 m3/day, was recently enlarged to treat 625 000 m3/day, along with the introduction of flotation and ozone into the treatment process (Luís et al., 2014). The second largest water source is the river Tagus, with abstraction undertaken at Valada Tagus (Figure 7). This water is pumped to Vale da Pedra WTP, which has a nominal capacity of 240 000 m3/day. The remaining water sources are Olhos de Água (since 1880), a spring from limestone hills; Ota and Alenquer, also located on a limestone massif but the water being extracted from wells; Valadas and Lezírias, where the water is abstracted from aquifers, the latter being the largest aquifer in the Iberic Península (Tagus-Sado aquifer). All water sources are located in the Tagus river basin. Each day EPAL supplies 650 million litres of drinking water from the sources to the customers’ taps, through more than 2 100 kilometres of water mains, 43 pumping stations, 24 water tanks, 14 service reservoirs and about 80 000 service connections. The Alcântara water system is part of this global system and the studied DMA are presented in Figure 8.

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 14 - 30 December 2013

Castelo Bode reservoir

LISBON WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM

Asseiceira WTP

Valada abstraction

Lisbon distribution network

Figure 7 – Lisbon water supply system

Figure 8 – Alcântara water supply system and DMAs

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 15 - 30 December 2013

2.2.3 Sewer system description The Alcântara stormwater and wastewater systems serve an area of 6 300ha, a population of 756 000 inhabitants, through a complex network having a total length of about 774 km and an average sewer age of about 60 years. The study area includes eleven sub-catchments in the west part of the city, connected to the interceptor system of the Alcântara WWTP (Figure 9) and is therefore designated by Alcântara system (Telhado et al., 2014). The stormwater system drains an area of about 4802 ha. Excluding the Monsanto Forest Park, there is a high urban settlement with a significant level of impervious area. In average the runoff coefficient is of 0.67.

Figure 9 – Alcântara stormwater and wastewater system

Based on the construction of the city hydrological model (Figure 10), it was possible to simulate the original natural hydrographical network and limit the corresponding catchments.

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 16 - 30 December 2013

Figure 10 – Alcântara original hydrologic model

This model allows identifying the main endpoints of accumulation (mouth), regardless of the advancement of the shore line. The stormwater network is rather complex but in a good part coincides with the natural network layout. The main exceptions are in the areas of Campo Grande and Lumiar, where the sewer networks drain wastewater and stormwater to another catchment of Chelas. According to the current Lisbon Mater Plan, Lisbon has a classified wetlands system (Figure 11) that corresponds to a set of areas whose characteristics, hydrological and geomorphological (open and groundwater channels, adjacent respective areas and basins receiving stormwater), pedological (alluvial zones) and geological (upwelling water) have high probability of being covered temporarily by rainwater.

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 17 - 30 December 2013

Figure 11 – Alcântara wetlands system

A large part of Lisbon’s sewer system is combined. However, especially since 1995, new developments have been planned with separate systems and today there is about 27% of the area with separate networks, being 12% separate domestic and 15% separate stormwater. In the oldest parts of the city, mainly downtown, combined system has a higher expression, about 97%, especially in the sub-catchments of Terreiro do Paço and Cais do Sodré. In the upstream parts, with a more recent construction, as Benfica and Avenidas Novas, there is a higher incidence of separate systems but still connected to the downtown combined sewers. Many of these systems are really functioning as combined due to the large number of illegal or wrong connections to both stormwater and domestic sewers (Telhado et al., 2014). Most of the 774 km of existing sewers, about 64%, have circular cross section (Figure 12). From these, the domestic sewers are mainly of stoneware ceramic while for stormwater sewers the majority are of cement or concrete. Plastic materials such as polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and polypropylene corrugated (PP) have been used in the past 30 years in both stormwater and domestic sewers. The second more common cross section is the oval or ovoid with 29% (Figure 12). Most of these sewers, installed before 1950, are made of stone masonry (Figure 13a) or, less usual, of brick. After 1950’s, the use of this section is less frequent and usually are oval reinforced concrete sewers. Often, this type of cross section has a gutter, in some cases made of stoneware (Figure 13b).

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 18 - 30 December 2013

Cross-handle arch

Rectangular

Circular

Oval/Ovoid

Inverted U

Figure 12 – Types of cross-sections

a) Stone masonry sewer b) Sewer with gutter

Figure 13 – Oval cross section

Regarding the remaining cross section shape, only rectangular sewers (Figure 14a) have some representativeness of about 5%. The sewers in “saimel”, about 1%, generally have inverted U section (Figure 14b) or, in few cases, oval cross section (Figure 13a). These sewers are characteristic of the Baixa Pombalina area (Telhado et al., 2014).

a) Stone sewer b) “Saimel” sewer

Figure 14 – Rectangular and inverted U cross section

Baixa Pombalina was the first part of Lisbon having a sewer network. It was completely rebuilt after the earthquake of 1st November 1755. The sewers of this area of the city, built by demand of Marquis of Pombal, prime minister of King Joseph I, are known as “saimel”, designation of the bricks built with limestone.

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 19 - 30 December 2013

The cross-handle arch section (Figure 15a) is used when there is any limitation on the installation depth. It is usually made of reinforced concrete and there are about 3900 meters of these sewers in the catchment. The rectangular section (Figure 15b) is generally used in large sewers and is mostly made of in situ reinforced concrete or prefabricated elements. The extension of these sewers in the catchment does not reach 2500 meters. The majority of sewers, about 85%, are non-man-entry, having vertical dimension or diameter of less than 1800 mm. Sewers with smaller dimensions usually have circular sections. In this type of section, the percentage of man- entry sewers is less than 1%. Man-entry sewers can have very different cross sections. Non-man-entry sewers rarely have vertical dimension less than 1000 mm. Finally, the cross-handle arch section and “saimel” sewers, although less common, have a significant percentage of man-entry sections.

a) Cross-handle arch section b) Rectangular section Figure 15 – Cross-handle arch and rectangular cross section shapes

The caneiro of Alcântara is the main sewer of the Alcântara catchment draining an area of 3100 ha, about 65% of the total Alcântara subsystem area. It has approximately 10 km length, starting near Portas de Benfica and developing toward the southwest, crossing the neighbourhoods of Benfica and S. Domingos de Benfica to the railway station of Campolide. At north of this site there is a confluence of a significant branch of Sete Rios, corresponding to a catchment contribution of 323 ha corresponding to the areas of Avenidas Novas, Entre Campos, Campo Pequeno, Hospital de S. Maria, Sete Rios e Praça de Espanha. Downstream this sewer develops to the south until the Tagus River near the Gare Marítima de Alcântara (Figure 16).

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 20 - 30 December 2013

Rehabilitated In rehabilitation Rehabilitation planned

Figure 16 – Caneiro de Alcântara

The caneiro de Alcântara is mostly made of concrete and with a purpose designed cross-section, consisting of a parabolic arch with 0.45 meters thickness supported on lateral walls, ending in two lateral blocks against which loads are transmitted to the support foundations. The invert has a 0.20 m thickness and has a central channel for dry weather flows, allowing man circulation during dry weather periods in the lateral benches (Figure 17).

Figure 17 – Cross section of caneiro de Alcântara

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 21 - 30 December 2013

The cross section dimensions vary through eight types of sections. The smaller section is upstream (type VII), next to Portas de Benfica, has 4.66 m wide by 3.00 m high. The downstream sections, between Campolide and Alcantara railway stations (type I and II) have a width of 8.00 m by a height of 5.15 m. At the confluence of the branch of Sete Rios the section type VIII reaches 14.00 m wide and 6.50 m high (Figure 18) (Telhado et al., 2014).

Braço de Benfica Braço de Sete Rios

Figure 18 – Confluence of the two branches of caneiro de Alcântara

The Alcântara subsystem is divided into an upstream and a downstream areas (Figure 19a), using the treatment plant as reference. The downstream area includes the entire river front, from Algés to Alfama, and is divided into two drainage fronts: Algés-Alcântara and Alfama-Alcântara (Figure 19b). This part of the wastewater system has eleven pumping stations to direct dry weather flows to the treatment plant. The wastewater collected from these two fronts arrives at pumping station 3 (PS3) for further pumping up to the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) of Alcântara (Figure 19b). The wastewater from Amadora and Lisbon’s upstream area flows to the WWTP through the caneiro de Alcântara. The caneiro crosses the areas of Falagueira, Benfica, Campolide and Av. de Ceuta, in a 10 km length (Figure 19a). The Alcântara WWTP was designed to serve all the population of the area encompassed by its subsystem i.e. 756 000 inhabitants equivalent, from the Lisbon, Amadora and Oeiras municipalities, for 3.3 m3/s for dry weather flow and a total flow of 6.6 m3/s to accommodate some wet weather flows. The average wastewater treated flow is around 130 000 to 140 000 m3/day.

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 22 - 30 December 2013

a) Downstream and upstream areas

Alcântara WWTP

Front Alfama-Alcântara

PS 3

Front Algés-Alcântara

b) Downstream interceptor system Figure 19 – Areas of the Alcântara subsystem

For the design of the WWTP several conditioning factors were taken into account, among which are: the guarantee that the WWTP was fully operational during the period of the adaptation and enlargement works; the secondary treatment and disinfection would be obtained through the use of modern technologies that should be built in a confined space, affected and surrounded by large infrastructures; the need to ensure the environmental and landscape re-qualification of a facility located in an urban area (Figure 20) (Martins et al., 2014).

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 23 - 30 December 2013

(http://www.simtejo.pt) Figure 20 – Alcântara WWTP

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 24 - 30 December 2013

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 25 - 30 December 2013

3 Implementation of the WCSP at the integrated level

3.1 WCSP  1. Commitment and establishment of water cycle safety policy and scope

3.1.1 Project team In order to assemble a team for the development of the WCSP all relevant stakeholders were identified. Relevant stakeholders are those who can affect, or can be affected by, the activities carried out in relation with the water cycle. A multi-stakeholder team was created for the water cycle level. Additionally, it was created a team at each utility for development of the SSPs. One or more members from these SSPs teams were represented in the water cycle level team. A three level structure for the water cycle level team was adopted (Table 1) comprising a core team, a second level team and a third level team. The core team was composed by the water utilities (drinking water supply, wastewater and stormwater systems), the Portuguese water and waste services regulator and LNEC as a research partner. This core team did the main work of development of the WCSP demonstration. A second level team was also planned. This team corresponds to an extended working team composed by stakeholders that were regularly asked to contribute on specific issues and that could be involved in the implementation of risk reduction measures: the Catchment Authority, the Directorate General of Health, the Electrical Supplier and the Municipal Civil Protection. Although the second level was not activated during the course of the project, some representatives participated in the core team work. The representatives from the Municipal Civil Protection Department of Lisbon actively contributed to the main work of developing the WCSP. The representative from the Health Authority participated in all the core team meetings and provided useful information for the development of work. The third level includes stakeholders that, in a full scale implementation of the WCSP, would provide information needed for the WCSP development and that should be informed on developments of the whole WCSP process. This team level was also not activated within the timeframe of the PREPARED project. It included representatives from domestic customers, agents and association of consumers; Administration of the port of Lisbon; Administration of railways infrastructure; Administration of railways service; boroughs within the Alcântara catchment; neighbour water utilities, namely Oeiras & Amadora water and wastewater municipal services; neighbour municipalities, such as Oeiras municipality and Amadora municipality; Portuguese Environment Agency; and, communications providers. A detailed description of each organization which had representatives in the core team is made in section 3.1.2.

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Table 1 – WC level team composition Stakeholder name Relationship to system Number of representatives Core team members EPAL Drinking water utility 3

Utility responsible for the SimTejo wastewater interception and 3 treatment system CML – Lisbon Utility responsible for the Municipality/Department of wastewater and stormwater 2 Construction Works and collection systems Maintenance of Infrastructure

Water and waste services ERSAR – Regulator Authority 2 regulator LNEC – Research Laboratory 3

2nd level team members ARH – Catchment authority of Give info; Responsibility in - Lisbon and Tagus valley RRM implementation DGS – Directorate General of Give info; Responsibility in 1 Health RRM implementation CML-CPD – Municipal Civil Give info; Responsibility in 2 Protection Department RRM implementation

Give info; Responsibility in EDP – Electrical Supplier - RRM implementation 3rd level team members

Domestic customers/agents, Give info; To be informed of - association of consumers the WCSP process

APL – Administration of the Give info; To be informed of - port of Lisbon the WCSP process

REFER – Administration of Give info; To be informed of - railways infrastructure the WCSP process

CP - Administration of railways Give info; To be informed of - service the WCSP process

Boroughs within the Alcântara Give info; To be informed of - catchment the WCSP process

Oeiras & Amadora water and Give info; To be informed of - wastewater municipal services the WCSP process Give info; To be informed of Oeiras Municipality - the WCSP process Give info; To be informed of Amadora Municipality - the WCSP process APA – Portuguese Give info; To be informed of - Environment Agency the WCSP process

PT, TMN, VODAFONE, Give info; To be informed of OPTIMUS - Communications the WCSP process - providers

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3.1.2 Participant stakeholders description

. EPAL – Core team member Founded in 1868 as CAL - Companhia das Águas de Lisboa, a privately owned concession to supply water to Lisbon, it became a State owned company in 1974, named EPAL. Since 1991, EPAL is a public limited company, wholly owned by Águas de Portugal group. EPAL provides drinking water to 2.9 million people (about one-quarter of the Portuguese population) in 35 municipalities, including Lisbon, covering a region of around 5.4 km2. With approximately 700 staff, EPAL has assets with a net fixed value of more than 900 million EUR (Luís et al., 2014).

. SimTejo– Core team member SIMTEJO is a leading company operating in the environmental sector in Portugal and its mission is to contribute to the pursuit of national objectives in the wastewater collection and treatment within a framework of economic, financial, technical, social and environmental sustainability. Its goal is to protect and value the natural and human environment: the activities of the company include collection, treatment and disposal of urban and industrial wastewater, including its recycling and reuse in an environmental safe manner. Sustainable use and preservation of natural resources, equilibrium and improvement of the quality of the environment, equity in access to public services and the promotion of well-being and people’s standards of living are fundamental values to SimTejo. SimTejo is the concessionary company of the Multi-municipal Sanitation System of Rivers Tagus and Trancão. It was established in December 2001 with the main purpose of assuring the gathering and treatment of effluents originated in the hydrographic basins of river Trancão, in the small right bank basins of Tagus Estuary, between Vila Franca de Xira and Algés, and in the Mafra´s west streams, encompassing a total area of about 1000 square kilometers. SimTejo exploits currently a system that includes 30 WWTP, 84 pumping stations and 271 km of main sewage system, and treats around 118 Mm3/yr, serving a population of 1,5 million inhabitants in the north area of Lisbon (served municipalities: Amadora, Lisboa, Loures, Odivelas, Mafra e Vila Franca de Xira). The final system (to be finished by 2013) will include 31 WWTP, 95 pumping stations and 327 km of collectors (Martins et al., 2014).

. Municipality of Lisbon – Core team member and second level team member The Municipality of Lisbon is the executive body of the municipality and its mission is to define and execute policies that may promote the development of the city of Lisbon in different areas. There are six main strategic questions faced by the future of the city, namely, how to socially recuperate, renovate and balance the population; how to turn Lisbon into a friendly, safe and inclusive city for everyone; how to turn Lisbon into an environmentally sustainable and energetically efficient city; how to

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 28 - 30 December 2013

transform Lisbon into an innovative, creative city capable of competing in a global context, generating wealth and employment; how to assert the identity of Lisbon, in a globalized World; how to create an efficient, participatory and financially sustainable model of governance for Lisbon. Within the scope of the Lisbon WCSP demonstration, two departments of the Lisbon municipality participated, namely, Department of Construction Works and Maintenance of Infrastructure and Public Streets and Civil Protection Department. Department of Construction Works and Maintenance of Infrastructure and Public Streets has an activity which objectives are assure the design, installation and maintenance of infrastructure and public streets, coordinate the project design and works in public streets and underground. The Civil Protection Department (CPD) is a local authority on the structure of the Lisbon Municipality. CPD is responsible for the management of the city during crisis and exceptional conditions and works in articulation with the National and District Authorities for Civil Protection. According to the Civil Protection Portuguese Law, the main intervention areas are collective risk prevention, and their effects in case of disaster or accident. CPD is responsible by the areas of risk analysis, emergency planning, public information, operations and training on Civil Protection field and psychosocial support in daily emergency situations and in case of big disasters. The city of Lisbon joined the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) Campaign 2010-2015, ”Making Cities Resilient: My City is Getting Ready” in December 2010 in the sequence of the work developed by the Civil Protection Department.

. ERSAR – Core team member ERSAR is the Water and Waste Services Regulation Authority in charge of regulating public water supply services, urban wastewater management services and municipal waste management services. Public water supply, urban wastewater management and municipal waste management are public services essential to the well-being, public health and, finally, collective security of the populations and economic activities, as well as to the environment protection. These services must respect the principles of universal access, uninterrupted and high quality of service and efficient and equitable prices. ERSAR aims to ensure adequate protection of the water and waste sector consumers and users, avoiding possible subsequent abuse of exclusive rights with regard to the guarantee and quality control of the public service provided, on the one hand, and supervision and control of prices, on the other; to ensure equal and clear conditions in the access to the water and waste services and the operation of these services; reinforce the right to general information about the sector and, more precisely, about each operator. Regulation is essential due to the natural or legal monopoly situation of these services. ERSAR established its own regulation model and regulates

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 29 - 30 December 2013

over 500 operators. Although the authority of ERSAR depends on the Ministry of Agriculture, Sea, Environment and Spatial Planning (MAMAOT), its financing comes from regulation fees and drinking water control fees collected from the operators.

. LNEC – Core team member LNEC is the largest Portuguese applied research institute in the field of civil engineering and related environmental areas, combining R&D with specialised consultancy and with general support to the industry. The LNEC main goals are to carry out innovative R&D and to contribute to the best practices in civil engineering in the scope of public works, infrastructures, housing and town-planning, water resources, transports, environment, building materials industry and other building products. LNEC has carried out studies in more than 40 countries, in all continents, within the framework of R&D studies and advanced technological consultancy. LNEC has a long-term applied research experience in the fields of urban water, both nationally and internationally, based on multidisciplinary approaches and multi-stakeholders R&D projects, with joint teams with the utilities, including broad consortia and strategic platforms, at European and international levels. LNEC’s Urban Water Division (NES) performs leading-edge research in areas such risk management, urban water cycle safety planning, infrastructure asset management, monitoring, mathematical modelling, early-warning systems, performance assessment, efficient water and energy use, GIS. LNEC is the Portuguese research partner and acted as coordinator of the development of the WCSP demonstration activities to Lisbon.

. DGS – Directorate General of Health – Second level team member The Directorate-General of Health (DGS) is a public body of the Ministry of Health that positions itself as a reference for all those who think and operate in the healthcare field. Its main areas of activity are to issue clinical and organizational guidelines; to guide and develop programmes of Public health, improved healthcare and total clinical and organizational quality management; to coordinate and assure national epidemiological surveillance; to prepare and publish health statistics; to support the activities of the National Public Health Officer; to coordinate the Public Health Emergencies System; to monitor the National Health Service Contact Centre; to prepare and assure the execution of the National Health Plan; to coordinate the European and international relations of the Ministry of Health; to regulate and monitor the compliance with safety and quality standards of blood, tissues and organs. DGS is focused on citizens’ interests, in cooperation with other public bodies, particularly those accountable to the Ministry of Health.

3.1.3 Team coordinator The team was coordinated by the research partner LNEC.

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 30 - 30 December 2013

3.1.4 Team modus operandi In order to develop the WCSP process, the team worked together in a total of 51 periodic meetings (see Table 2, Figure 21, Figure 22 and Figure 23). Additionally, each stakeholder developed most of the work between meetings. The results from this work were presented to the whole group in the following meeting. The planning of the work for each WCSP step was made by the team coordinator in agreement with the other participants. Each meeting was dedicated to one or two WCSP steps, so that all steps could be covered within the PREPARED project timeframe. For each team meeting, the team coordinator prepared the meeting agenda, the presentations and reported on the meeting. At the integrated level, meetings had a monthly average frequency. SSPs related meetings took place between integrated level meetings sometimes with higher frequency. Documents circulated by e-mail among stakeholders and working files (reports, excel forms, data files, etc.) were shared through Dropbox.

Table 2 –Meetings for the development of the WCSP Level Meetings*

Integrated level 13 meetings: 20-12-2011 31-01-2012, 13-03-2012, 27-04-2012, 21-06-2012, 17-10-2012, 11-12-2012 23-01-2013, 24-05-2013, 25-09-2013, 30-10-2013, 20-11-2013, 11-12-2013 System level – SSP EPAL 10 meetings

System level – SSP SimTejo 17 meetings System level – SSP CML 10 meetings *Not including preliminary work meetings

Figure 21 – Lisbon demonstration meeting – risk events location

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 31 - 30 December 2013

Figure 22 – Lisbon demonstration meeting – risk events characterisation

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 32 - 30 December 2013

Figure 23 – Lisbon demonstration meeting – risk reduction measures location

3.1.5 Scope of WCSP The WCSP was developed considering the following systems, which are described in detail in section 0:

. drinking water system;

. wastewater system;

. stormwater system;

. non-drinking water system. The WCSP focused on risks in the urban water cycle that are climate change related. As previously mentioned only risks associated with the Alcantâra catchment were dealt with.

3.1.6 Time frame to develop the WCSP Preliminary work began in January 2011 and was carried out by LNEC. This work consisted in the identification of relevant stakeholders, initial contacts and invitations and individual meetings with each of the stakeholders, for presentation of PREPARED and discussion about their participation in the project. During this period research developments on the WCSP framework and tools were also carried out. Subsequently, PREPARED demonstration activities proceeded according to the time frame in Table 3 and started in December 2011 with a kick-off meeting with all stakeholders. It was necessary to make some adjustments to the initial planning because, in some steps, the work required additional time to be correctly developed.

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 33 - 30 December 2013

Table 3 – Timeframe for developing WCSP at integrated level

Task 25 month

Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 Month 7 Month 8 Month 9 Month 10Month 11Month 12Month 13Month 14Month 15Month 16Month 17Month 18Month 19Month 20Month 21Month 22Month 23Month 24Month 25Month After Commitment and establishment of

water cycle safety policy and scope Urban water cycle characterisation Risk identification in the water cycle Risk analysis and evaluation

in the water cycle Development of system safety plans

Risk treatment Management and communication programs and protocols Monitoring and

review

3.1.7 Formal requirements

. Drinking water system EPAL is regulated by the national water services regulator ERSAR that requires the yearly assessment of the quality of service provided by the water utilities to the users, establishing levels of service through the application of a set of 16 performance indicators (Alegre et al., 2012). Drinking water quality has to comply with the Portuguese Decree-law 306/2007 that establishes maximum admissible values for a set of chemical and microbiological parameters and also defines responsibilities of the several stakeholders involved in the management of supply systems. The quality of water sources used for the production of drinking water has to comply with the Portuguese Decree-law 236/98 (Luís et al., 2014).

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 34 - 30 December 2013

. Wastewater system Lisbon Municipality and SimTejo are regulated by the national water services regulator ERSAR (see 3.1.2) that requires yearly the assessment of the quality of service provided to the users, establishing levels of service through the application of a set of 16 performance indicators (Alegre et al., 2012). The SimTejo regulation, to be developed until 15th October each year, as established by Portaria 34/2011, shall also be considered. The WWTP water resources title (APA issued) license n. 2012.000241.0010.T.L.RJ.DAR establishes the discharges requirements for the treated wastewater in the receiving water body Tagus Estuary (Table 4). The treated wastewater is submitted to a battery of analysis to verify compliance with the discharge requirements (Martins et al., 2014).

Table 4 – Discharge requirements for treated wastewater in Alcântara WWTP Emission limit value Parameter (VLE) SST (total suspended solids) 35 mg/l

BOD (biochemical oxygen demand) 25 mg/l COD (chemical oxygen demand) 125 mg/l

. Stormwater system Lisbon Municipality is regulated by ERSAR that requires yearly the assessment of the quality of service provided to the users, establishing levels of service through the application a set of 16 performance indicators (Alegre et al., 2012).

. Non-drinking water system At the national level only the use of treated urban wastewater for irrigation is regulated through the Decree - Law n. 236/98, of 1 of August and EN 4434/2005. The Lisbon and Tagus Valley Regional Centre for Public Health recommends the requirements presented in Table 5 and Table 6 for different uses (Santos et al., 2011).

Table 5 – Requirements for treated wastewater in Alcântara WWTP for reuse in washing

Parameter/Type of use Streets washing Cars washing Termotolerant Coliform ≤ 200 ≤ 1000 Bacteria (/100 mL) Gastrointestinal Nematode ≤ 0.1 ≤ 0.1 Eggs (egg/L)

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 35 - 30 December 2013

Table 6 – Requirements for treated wastewater in Alcântara WWTP for reuse in irrigation

Parameter/Type of use Public green areas Vegetable cultures Faecal Coliforms - Maximum 200 NMP/100 mL 100 NMP/100 mL Recommended Value (VMR) or ufc/100 mL or ufc/100 mL Eggs and parasites - Maximum Admissible Value 1 1 (VMA) (egg/L)

3.1.8 Water cycle safety policy Given that the WCSP demonstration was set within a project, having in mind the test and identification of opportunities for improving the framework proposal, a formal agreement was made between the participants to ensure their involvement and also issues related with confidentiality and data sharing.

3.1.9 Criteria for subsequent risk analysis The definition of criteria to be used in the estimation and evaluation of risk, especially in the steps of risk analysis, evaluation and treatment was developed from a first proposal from LNEC. After discussing them with the team participants a common basis was agreed upon. The selected method for risk identification was the one proposed in PREPARED WA2 and the RIDB was used as a supporting tool. For risk estimation the risk matrix method was considered adequate. Likelihood, consequence and risk scales were defined, considering 5, 5 and 3 classes, respectively, as well as a matrix was selected. Legal, regulatory or other formal requirements were taken in consideration for defining the likelihood and consequence scales. The dimensions of consequence selected were: (1) Health and safety (consumer, public, occupational); (2) Financial; (3) Service continuity; (4) Environmental impacts; (5) Liability, compliance, reputation and image. For the dimension (1) the metrics used were the number and severity of injuries of people affected by disease and the number of people affected permanently (mortality and disability). For the dimension (2), the metric used was the effect on the annual operating budget. In dimension (3), the metrics selected were the duration of interruption of water supply services; the number of client.hours of service loss, the bulk water supply service loss , the untreated wastewater discharge and the number of properties and area affected by flooding. For dimension (4), the metrics for impact on water (surface, ground), land, air, flora, fauna were expressed as expected recovery time and severity of the damage. In the case of dimension (5) the metrics used were the number of complaints, the frequency of negative references to the utility in the media and the frequency of lawsuits.

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 36 - 30 December 2013

3.2 WCSP  2. Urban water cycle characterisation

3.2.1 Water cycle description and flow diagram The water systems considered for the Lisbon - Alcântara demonstration case are presented in Figure 24.

Wastewater interception/ Drainage combined/ / treatment separate sewers SIMTEJOSSP Lisbon municipality

Water supply Catchment EPALWSP & SSP Lisbon ARH Tejo  Water Catchment Cycle authority Safety Plan

Figure 24 – Water systems for the Lisbon - Alcântara demonstration case

Most water that supplies the Alcântara catchment comes from the Castelo do Bode Dam, owned by EDP (Table 1). The Alcântara system is also supplied by other sources: Tagus River, Ota abstraction, Alenquer abstraction and Lezírias abstraction. After being abstracted the bulk surface water is transported to the Asseiceira and Vale da Pedra WTPs where it is treated (Luís et al., 2014). Groundwater from Ota, Lezírias and Alenquer is treated at the abstractions’ sites. The treated water is transported in a transmission system to Telheiras, Olivais and Barbadinhos water tanks, reaching the consumers tap through the distribution system in Alcântara basin (2.2.2). The stormwater generated within the Alcântara catchment drains to the combined sewer system (2.2.3). The domestic wastewater produced in the upstream areas of the Alcântara catchment is collected by the wastewater sewer system, which is mostly combined, and is transported through the main sewer caneiro de Alcântara to the Alcântara WWTP. The wastewater from the downstream areas is collected and transported in an interceptor sewer, with eleven pumping stations. The wastewater is pumped from the interceptor to the WWTP (2.2.3). During rain periods, either when the combined system or the WWTP capacities are exceeded, combined sewer overflows are discharged to the Tagus estuary. Part of the treated wastewater from the Alcântara WWTP is discharged to the Tagus estuary and part is reused for irrigation. The Tagus estuary, under the responsibility of ARH (Table 1), is used for recreational activities (2.1). The diagram representing the water cycle flow is presented in Figure 25. The main interactions between the different systems in the water cycle reported by the stakeholders are:

. source water and drinking water system;

. collection and interception system;

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 37 - 30 December 2013

. domestic and stormwater system;

. wastewater and non-drinking water system;

. wastewater system and receiving waters;

. stormwater system and receiving waters.

EPAL water utility Water Stored Source Alcantara distribution Drinking Raw water treatment Treated water water waters system water plants

SIMTEJO wastewater utility Treated Wastewater Alcantara wastewater reuse from Oeiras, Interception wastewater Non drinking for irrigation and Amadora system treatment water system streets and and Lisboa plant equipment cleaning

Discharge Caneiro de in receiving Alcântara water body

Receiving water body: CML wastewater utility Tejo river Collection system

Stormwater from Alcântara Recreational uses Discharge in receiving water body

Wastewater and stormwater Collection from Oeiras system and Amadora

Wastewater and stormwater from Lisboa

Figure 25 – Water cycle flow diagram

3.3 WCSP  3. Preliminary risk identification in the water cycle

3.3.1 Supporting tools Different supporting tools were used during the risk identification step. These tools were developed within the PREPARED project (Figure 26) and tools that support risk identification are briefly described as follows:

. Fault trees tool (SFTWC) - provide a means to schematise the ways a hazardous event can occur. This tool provides a set of 20 fault trees (one for each hazard identified within PREPARED), in order to facilitate the task of WCSP events identification either at integrated or system level Almeida et al. (2013b). The qualitative fault trees provided within PREPARED support tool are generic. Thus, the basic events were further detailed and applied for the Alcântara water cycle integrated and systems’ levels of application.

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 38 - 30 December 2013

. Risk identification database (RIDB) – this database provides a ‘checklist’ of known risks based on industry knowledge and lessons learned from historical events. RIDB characterizes more than 100 events for the water cycle integrated and systems’ levels application, providing information on event description; associated hazards, risk sources, contributing causes, existing measures to reduce risk, risk factors and typical consequences dimensions, system component where risk source occurs and system component where exposure occurs. For each event, information on the expected impacts of climate change indicators and effects is also given (Almeida et al., 2011a; Almeida et al., 2013b, Almeida et al., 2013c). Using RIDB the generic events had to be detailed and characterised for the Alcântara water cycle integrated and systems’ levels application.

. Risk analysis form (RA_Form) – this form, in excel format, was created during the development of the Lisbon case study to register the events that were identified in this demo. For each event, information to be registered includes: event description, hazards, risk sources, contributing causes, measures to reduce risk (existing measures and additional measures), risk factors, system component where risk source occurs, system component where exposure occurs, expected impacts of climate change, probability (class and justification of selected class) and consequence (class for each consequence dimension and justification of selected class). Based on probability and consequence, the form automatically calculates the event risk.

. Risk analysis registry (RAR) – this template is used to register information that characterizes the events identified in the demo. Each event has associated one record sheet registering essentially the same information included in the RA_Form but in a word format more suitable for reporting.

List of relevant hazards identified for urban water systems (LHWC)

Set of fault trees for hazardous events Risk analysis form (RA form) identified for the water cycle (SFTWC) (MS EXCEL file)

Risk identification database (RIDB) Template for risk analysis registry (RAR) (MS WORD file)

Risk reduction database (RRDB)

(a) Database type tools (b) Registry type tools

Figure 26 – Tools developed to support the application of the WCSP framework (Almeida et al., 2013a)

3.3.2 Relevant hazards A first identification of the relevant hazards was made looking at the whole water cycle, considering the hazard checklist provided by the PREPARED project (Almeida et al., 2010) and using the information compiled in Step 2, the team members’ knowledge of the system, a site visit, previous risk studies made by the Lisbon municipality and historical information. The following

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 39 - 30 December 2013

hazards were considered to be relevant, at the integrated level, for the Alcântara system:

. Extended periods without supply;

. Presence of microbial pathogens in flooding water;

. Presence of microbial pathogens in water used for irrigation;

. Water infrastructure collapses or bursts potentially causing injuries to public;

. High velocity runoff in public streets;

. High depth flooding in public areas or private properties;

. Discharge of organics in the water cycle or soil;

. Discharge of nutrients (P/N) in the water cycle;

. Discharge of heavy metals and other chemicals in the water cycle or soil.

Due to resources limitations within the PREPARED project timeframe, it was decided to focus the subsequent work on hazards for which information was more easily available to characterize the associated events:

. Extended periods without supply;

. High velocity runoff in public streets;

. High depth flooding in public areas or private properties;

. Discharge of organics in the water cycle or soil.

3.3.3 Potential events, risk sources and risk factors For each of the previously selected hazards, risk sources (elements which alone or in combination have the intrinsic potential to give rise to risk), risk factors (something that can have an effect on the risk level, by changing the probability or the consequences of an event) and events (sequence of individual occurrences of consequences) were identified and characterized. This work was carried out using the information compiled in Step 2, the team members’ knowledge of the system, site visits, historical information and the information provided by the PREPARED risk identification database, as well as fault trees. A total of 23 climate change related events were considered to be relevant at the integrated level. These events were originated in the SSPs development and are related to issues involving more than one stakeholder or are associated with boundaries among the different systems. Some examples of the identified events, risk sources and risk factors are presented in Table 7. The complete characterization of these example events is made in Annex 1. The three main risk sources identified as relevant for Alcântara are related with high precipitation intensity, decrease of precipitation/drought and high river or sea level. In Lisbon, situations of high precipitation intensity usually occur during autumn and winter, but there are historical registers of occurrences in other seasons. Problems associated with high river or sea level

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 40 - 30 December 2013

occur mainly when high-tide coincides with high precipitation (that leads to direct flooding along the coastline and to the flow inversion in wastewater systems that discharge in the Tagus river) and with storm surges. Examples of the events and related hazards, risk sources and risk factors identified for Alcântara are presented in Table 7. These risk sources (alone or in combination) can originate urban flooding in some critical areas of the city (Figure 27 and Figure 28) located near the coastline, in valleys, in areas with low level or low slope and in areas that, in the past, were streams or water courses. Table 7 – Examples of the events and related hazards, risk sources and risk factors identified for Alcântara

Event Event Hazard Risk sources Risk factors ID High velocity runoff in Luís High . Occurrence of . Human de Camões street due to velocity abnormal physical intense rainfall (RP = 10 years) runoff in metereologic vulnerability and to insufficient sewers public phenomena (high . Social and capacity resulting from high streets intensity rainfall) economic river or sea level, causing . Occurrence of vulnerability E1201.03 injuries to public, damages to abnormal . Infrastructure property, disturbances in hydrologic condition services and activities phenomena (high river or sea level) High depth flooding in public High . Occurrence of . Human areas or private properties in depth abnormal physical

Alcântara due to intense flooding metereologic vulnerability

rainfall (RP = 100 years) and to in public phenomena (high . Social and insufficient sewers capacity areas or intensity rainfall) economic resulting from high river or private . Occurrence of vulnerability E1301.06 sea level, causing injuries to properties abnormal . Infrastructure public, damages to property, hydrologic condition disturbances in services and phenomena (high activities river or sea level) Discharge of organics in the Discharge . Occurrence of . Precipitation water cycle or soil due to of abnormal intensity

discharge of untreated WW organics metereologic . Contaminant

from wastewater system in the phenomena (high concentration caused by failure in Alcântara water intensity rainfall) E1705 WWTP for insufficient cycle treatment plant capacity during peak flow causing damages to the environment Extended periods without Extended . Unavailability of . Precipitation supply due to unavailability periods water at source intensity of surface water in Tagus river without . Occurrence of . Temperature due to drought, affecting supply abnormal

E0506 public health and causing metereologic disturbances in services and phenomena (low activities rainfall)

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 41 - 30 December 2013

Figure 27 – Vulnerability to flooding in Lisbon

Figure 28 – Direct tidal effect in Lisbon

Systems and their interactions were characterised and risks identified and evaluated with the support of information gathered from the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) of the involved stakeholders. GIS was used to locate climate change related risk events in Lisbon and to characterise these events in the Alcântara catchment, as illustrated in Figure 29.

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 42 - 30 December 2013

Figure 29 – Risk identification and evaluation - risk events location

3.4 WCSP  4. Preliminary risk analysis and evaluation in the water cycle

3.4.1 Supporting tools Several supporting tools were used during the risk analysis and evaluation step. These tools were developed within the PREPARED project (Figure 26) and tools that support risk analysis are briefly described as follows:

. Risk identification database (RIDB) – as mentioned in section 3.3.1, this database provides a ‘checklist’ of known risks based on industry knowledge and lessons learned from historical events. For the more than 100 events included, information is provided on event description; associated hazards, risk sources, contributing causes, existing measures to reduce risk, risk factors and typical consequences dimensions, system component where risk source occurs and system component where exposure occurs. For each event, information on the expected impacts of climate change indicators and effects is also given (Almeida et al., 2011a; Almeida et al., 2013b, Almeida et al., 2013c).

. Risk analysis form (RA_Form) – this form, in excel format, was created during the development of the Lisbon case study to register the events that were identified in this demo. For each event, information to be registered includes: event description, hazards, risk sources, contributing

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 43 - 30 December 2013

causes, measures to reduce risk (existing measures and additional measures), risk factors, system component where risk source occurs, system component where exposure occurs, expected impacts of climate change, probability (class and justification of selected class) and consequence (class for each consequence dimension and justification of selected class). Based on probability and consequence, the form automatically calculates the event risk.

. Risk analysis registry (RAR) – this template is used to register information that characterizes the events identified in the demo. Each event has associated one record sheet registering essentially the same information included in the RA_Form but in a word format more suitable for reporting.

3.4.2 Likelihood and consequences for each event In Lisbon, intense rainfall is a typical scenario of the autumn and winter seasons, when it is observed the highest number of days with unsteady weather, clouds and frequent and intense rainfall. Despite this seasonal incidence, heavy rainfall can occur at any other time of the year. The intense rainfall or persistence of rainy days can cause situations of urban flooding, like the abnormal flow of stormwater to certain locations and facilities. The definition of unusually heavy rainfall values considers the values set for 1 hour period, associated with IDF curves (Intensity-Duration-Frequency), proposed by Brandão (2001). In Lisbon, the impact of the river flow in the city is mainly due to conjugation of intense rainfall and high sea level tide. Although this scenario in Lisbon has low probability, in storms situations it may constitute a risk source for the riverside area, if the maximum high tide is associated to a stormsurge. For Lisbon, the Astronomical Tide Prediction model (Faculty of Science from the University of Lisbon) predicts that extreme levels of maximum high tide in the reference period 2000-2010 vary between 4.26 m and 4.50 m, with an average of 4.41 m. These values vary over the period of 18.6 years and consider as reference the Datum defined by the Cascais tide gauge, with a value of 2.08 m below the average level of the sea. Despite these figures present a low probability to occur in Lisbon, it is a scenario to consider because during the last decades a rise in the average level of the sea and the Local Datum has been observed. Historical records of flood occurrences have been reported in the news and media as they interfere with the population living and have damaged building stock, vital points of the city or infrastructure in specific areas of the city. These situations cyclically affect the city, with increasing intensity and frequency, having been recorded in recent years (examples: 18th February, 2008; 29th October 2010; 21st December 2011). Based on information from the records of the Firefighters Regiment and of the Sewer Unit, it is possible to identify the consequences of high velocity or height water depth. SimTejo has a mathematical model of the sewer system that allows simulating the system behaviour for the selected scenarios.

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 44 - 30 December 2013

Considering the criteria for risk analysis defined in 3.1.9, the selected risk events were characterised for their likelihood and consequences, based on the information from The Lisbon Municipality, Simtejo and EPAL. Examples of the likelihood and consequences classification for the Alcântara selected events are presented in Table 8.

Table 8 – Examples of likelihood and consequence classification for the Alcântara events

Consequence Class

Event Event Probability class

ID

safety

image

Service

Liability, Liability,

Financial

continuity complianc

Health and

Environmental reputation and High velocity runoff in Luís 4 1 1 3 1

de Camões street due to based in records n.a.

intense rainfall (RP = 10 of 10 rainfall

years) and to insufficient occurrences with

sewers capacity resulting return period 10

from high river or sea level, years: 1976, 1969, .

E1201.03

in records in records n.a

causing injuries to public, 1985, 1987, 1993, d

damages to property, 1997, 1999, 2002, not ge affected

affected area ase

disturbances in services and 2008 b

Dependent of the Ima activities affectedSmall area High depth flooding in 3 2 2 n.a. 4 2 public areas or private

properties in Alcântara due based in records

to intense rainfall (RP = 100 of 5 rainfall years) and to insufficient occurrences with

sewers capacity resulting return period 100 .

from high river or sea level, years: 1967, 1983, n records

E1301.06

n.a o

causing injuries to public, 1997 d

damages to property, affected area

ase

and complaints b

disturbances in services and Dependent of the Significant affected area activities on References the media Discharge of organics in the 5 1 1 1 1 1

water cycle or soil due to

discharge of untreated WW based on rainfall

from wastewater system records and caused by failure in WWTP capacity

Alcântara WWTP for

E1705 on records

insufficient treatment plant

capacity during peak flow d

Low impact ase

causing damages to the Rapid recovery

b

Low percentage of Imange Imange not affected

environment untreated discharges 1 3 3 n.a. 5 4

Extended periods without Never occurred

supply due to unavailability

of surface water in Tagus

supply supply

public public

river due to drought, duration

E0506 affecting public health and

n.a. ion of ion

causing disturbances in consequences expected

services and activities

The The occurrence

Expected Expected

AOB lost would be be would AOB lost

and affected clients

nterrup

A low percentage of relevant in

health

media in frontmedia page

I Adverse Adverse coverage by

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3.4.3 Level of risk and risk evaluation for each event

Considering the risk matrix defined in 3.1.9, the selected events were characterised for risk based on the likelihood and consequences. Examples of the risk classification for the Alcântara selected events are presented in Table 10.

Table 9 – Examples of risk class for the Alcântara events

Risk Class

Risk Event Event class ID

global

safety

image

Service

Liability, Liability,

Financial

continuity complianc

Health and

Environmental reputation and High velocity runoff in Luís de Camões street due to intense rainfall (RP = 10 years) and to insufficient sewers capacity resulting from high 2 1 1 n.a 2 1 river or sea level, causing injuries to

E1201.03 public, damages to property, disturbances in services and activities High depth flooding in public areas or private properties in Alcântara due to intense rainfall (RP = 100 years) and to insufficient sewers 2 2 2 2 2 2 capacity resulting from high river or

E1301.06 sea level, causing injuries to public, damages to property, disturbances in services and activities Discharge of organics in the water cycle or soil due to discharge of

untreated WW from wastewater system caused by failure in 2 2 2 2 2 2

Alcântara WWTP for insufficient E1705 treatment plant capacity during peak flow causing damages to the environment Extended periods without supply

due to unavailability of surface water in Tagus river due to drought, 2 1 1 n.a. 2 1

affecting public health and causing E0506 disturbances in services and activities

Based on the integrated risk analysis and evaluation, Lisbon team identified that the most severe events are related to extended periods without supply, high velocity runoff in public streets, high depth flooding in public areas and discharge of organics in the Tagus River.

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3.5 WCSP  5. Development of system safety plans (SSP) Concurrently with the work at the integrated level, work was also developed at the system level. This system level work provided important inputs to the integrated level. SimTejo developed a SSP for the part of its system that is located in the Alcantâra catchment (Martins et al., 2014). As EPAL already had in place a Water Safety Plan according to WHO recommendations, it did not develop a full SSP according to the WCSP methodology, but, in some of the SSP steps, an adaptation of the WSP was made (Luís et al., 2014). The Lisbon Municipality also did not implement a full SSP, but contributed by developing work at the system level that provided input to the integrated level. In particular, they characterized the system, identified and characterized events relevant to the integrated level and identified applicable risk reduction measures (Telhado et al., 2014). It should be noted that the work at both levels started at about the same time. Thus, the demonstration in Lisbon suggested that the initial WCSP framework should be modified so that the development of SSP is not considered as occurring after step 4, but concurrently with the work at the integrated level.

3.6 WCSP  6. Integrated risk analysis and evaluation In practice, step 6 was carried out at the same time as step 4. Although the risk analysis and evaluation was an iterative process, there were not two distinct phases of work between preliminary and integrated risk analysis. The demonstration in Lisbon suggested that the initial WCSP framework should be modified to take into consideration this situation.

3.7 WCSP  7. Integrated risk treatment

3.7.1 Supporting tools Several supporting tools were used during the risk treatment step. These tools were developed within the PREPARED project (Figure 26) and tools that support risk treatment are briefly described as follows:

. Risk reduction database (RRDB) - this database provides a ‘checklist’ of risk reduction measures based on industry knowledge. RRDB characterizes more than 300 measures for the water cycle integrated and systems’ levels application, providing the following information on each measure: measure description; associated hazards; system/sub-system where the measure is aplicable; type of problems addressed; advantages and disadvantages; potential for risk reduction; implementation strategy; analysis of viability. Details can be found in Almeida et al. (2011a) and Almeida et al. (2013d).

. Risk analysis form (RA_Form) – as presented in section 3.3.1, this form, in excel format, created during the development of the Lisbon case study to register the events identified in this demo. For each event, information to be registered includes: event description, hazards, risk sources,

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contributing causes, measures to reduce risk, risk factors, system component where risk source occurs, system component where exposure occurs, expected impacts of climate change, probability (class and justification of selection) and consequence (class for each consequence dimension and justification of selected class). Based on probability and consequence, the form automatically calculates the event risk.

. Risk analysis registry (RAR) – this template is used to register information that characterizes the events identified in the demo. Each event has associated one record sheet registering essentially the same information included in RA_Form but in a word format more suitable for reporting.

3.7.2 Risk reduction measures For each of the events identified as needing treatment, a set of applicable measures to reduce risk were identified. For each risk reduction measure, a set of actions that are to be applied for its implementation was also identified. This work was carried out using the team members’ knowledge of the system, and the information provided by the PREPARED risk reduction measures database and also by the PREPARED risk identification database. More than 100 RRM were identified. Some examples of the measures are presented in Table 10.

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Table 10 – Examples of risk reduction measures identified for Alcântara Event Event Risk reduction measures ID . Establish land-use restrictions (such as in floodplain areas) . Reduce catchment impervious areas . River regulation . Flow control within the drainage network, through the High velocity runoff in Luís use of valves, weirs, gates, pumps, vortex controls de Camões street due to . Designing drainage networks for exceedance, e.g. transfer intense rainfall (RP = 10 to nearby subsystems or streams years) and to insufficient . Flood forecasting and warning sewers capacity resulting . Flood resilience measures (wet-proofing), e.g. flood from high river or sea level, resilient buildings and equipment

E1201.03 causing injuries to public, . Cleansing of urban surface and of systems components damages to property, . Adequate maintenance of equipment e.g. pumps in disturbances in services and stormwater systems activities . Cleaning of drains or sewer pipes . Emergency response planning . Inline/offline storage within the drainage network, such as oversized pipes, deep shafts, attenuation tanks, etc. . Terrain surface modelling to modify overland flow paths

. Establish land-use restrictions (such as in floodplain areas) . Reduce catchment impervious areas . River regulation . Flow control within the drainage network, through the High depth flooding in use of valves, weirs, gates, pumps, vortex controls public areas or private . Temporary flooding defences for protection in properties properties in Alcântara due . Designing drainage networks for exceedance, e.g. transfer

to intense rainfall (RP = to nearby subsystems or streams 100 years) and to insufficient . Flood forecasting and warning sewers capacity resulting . Flood resilience measures (wet-proofing), e.g. flood from high river or sea level, E1301.06 resilient buildings and equipment causing injuries to public, . Cleansing of urban surface and of systems components damages to property, . Adequate maintenance of equipment e.g. pumps in disturbances in services and stormwater systems activities . Cleaning of drains or sewer pipes . Emergency response planning . Inline/offline storage within the drainage network, such as oversized pipes, deep shafts, attenuation tanks, etc. Discharge of organics in the water cycle or soil due to discharge of untreated WW

from wastewater system . Flow control within the drainage network, through the caused by failure in use of valves, weirs, gates, pumps, vortex controls Alcântara WWTP for E1705 . Flood forecasting and warning insufficient treatment plant capacity during peak flow causing damages to the environment . Use of alternative water sources in case of insufficient Extended periods without water quantity - reuse of treated wastewater from supply due to unavailability Alcântara WWTP of surface water in Tagus . Increase of raw water storage capacity river due to drought, . Increase of use of water for supply by developing water

E0506 affecting public health and allocation strategies among competing uses in Tagus river causing disturbances in (priority to supply) services and activities . Rationing schemes and restrictions on water use (consumer’s)

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3.7.3 Comparison, prioritization and selection of risk reduction measures, risk treatment program and assessment of residual risk Given the aims, scope and resources of this demonstration a detailed study of the measures suitable to be applied was not specifically developed. However, the residual risk was broadly estimated for the selected measures.

3.8 WCSP  8. Management and communication programs and protocols WCSP  9. Monitoring and review No formal communication programs and protocols were developed in the WCSP demonstration but the existing ones in the scope of the stakeholders attributions were identified and analysed. Existing communication programs and protocols EPAL EPAL has several means for the management of risk events, depending on where they occur and their severity. Thus, the company´s main facilities have an internal emergency plan, with the aim of determining the potential risks present in site, planning of actions to be undertaken, appropriate training for personnel involved in emergency situations, providing faster and efficient intervention, additional means to be used and the protection of personnel and existing assets. In this document are also assigned the actions of each one of the people with responsibility in the management of an emergency event. In addition to these specific plans for each main site, there is a Crisis Management Manual, applicable to the entire company. The purpose of this Manual is "to define the methodology to manage crisis situations related with hazardous events that may compromise the water supply to the municipalities and/or direct customers, either in quantity or in quality and by extension affect the level of service provided, compromising the company's business continuity. The occurrence of a dangerous event, depending on its nature and severity level, has as an outcome their communication internally in the company, for those responsible for its management and mitigation measures, but also externally, as the case may be. Organizations involved may be the health authority, the media, as a source of information for consumers, and law enforcement authorities in cases of suspected act of sabotage in the event source. In the case of infrastructural failure to compromise the continuity of supply, the Communication and Corporate Image Department must inform the media, about the location and type of damage (burst, pumping station failure, etc), predictable repair term and consequent interruption of supply, customers affected, mitigation measures and supply alternatives. In the early hours following detection of an occurrence, it is possible that the information go evolving depending on the better assessment of the facts and the corrective measures that can be put into practice. As a result the principle of up-to-date information should be kept, even if the definitive resolution of the situation could take longer than first estimated. In these cases, EPAL could be prepared to initiate alternative means of supply, notably through tankers to be made available by the National Civil Protection Authority.

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For the protection of water sources against pollution and scarcity, EPAL meets regularly with Water Authorities to accomplish their environmental role. Besides, the company has participated in environmental projects involving municipalities and NGO, aiming to protect natural areas, namely surrounding the Castelo do Bode reservoir, with measures that will have a benefit in the quality of the water. Also, several meetings with the water authority have been promoted by EPAL with the aim to discuss and suggest regulatory measures to reduce and control all known threats to water bodies in the river basins where the company has abstractions. Another important measure will be the following signature of a protocol for the sustainable use of the water, in Castelo do Bode reservoir, with EDP (the hydropower company operating in site) to prevent conflicts of use in the future if river flows reduce as a result of long drought periods (Luís et al., 2014). Lisbon Municipality The interdependency of communications networks presently constitutes a fundamental infrastructure to enable the involvement and participation and ensure the mainstreaming of information between institutions, private and public agencies, emergency services, universities, research centres and the population itself. This system can integrate a public telephone network, fixed and mobile, private networks, as the case of the Strategic Network of Civil Protection and Network Security Forces, network of satellite phones, a redundancy system. In the absence of specific legislation on communication, it is recommended the definition and adoption of procedures of operation and coordination of communications, to ensure intercommunication and interoperability between different organizations and, in an emergency, enabling the centralization of recommended leadership and coordination. As a complement there should be a contact list of organizations and their representatives (Telhado et al., 2014). SimTejo SimTejo has internal procedures that requests that all the system failures (plant and pumping stations shutdowns, treated wastewater out of discharge parameters) must be communicated to the authorities within a 24 hours delay. The authorities that must be informed are the Portuguese Environment Agency APA (in this case the communication is a formal request of the discharge permit), the Municipal Services and the regulator ERSAR (except the shutdowns that are reported annually through the quality of service assessment). In the case of a planned shutdown (maintenance), the procedure requests that the communication is made, ate least, 15 days prior of the intervention date (Martins et al., 2014). Directorate General of Health The functions of the health authority may be allocated to the Delegate of the Regional Health or his designated representative for the municipality in the case of municipal or private systems. In the case of multi-municipal or inter-

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municipal systems, are exercised by the Regional Health Officer or his designated representative, advised by health delegates of municipalities involved. Only in the case of multi-municipal or inter-municipal systems covering more than one regional health administration, the functions of the health authority shall be exercised by the General Directorate of Health. In situations of non-compliance with the parametric values of Part III of Annex I of Decree -Law No. 306/2007, of August 27 the health authority shall, within 5 working days after the taking knowledge, to pronounce out to the water utilities about whether there is a significant risk to human health and inform the competent authority (ERSAR) entities. Whether the parametric values have not been observed or where the health authority finds that the quality of the distributed water is a potential danger to human health, shall , in conjunction with the water utility, determine the measures to be taken to minimize these effects in particular the determination of the prohibition or restriction of supply and information and advice for consumers , giving them the knowledge ERSAR. The health authority may also determine the prohibition of supply, taking into account risks to human health arising from the interruption of supply or a restriction of water use. Information Information management is a process that involves the collection, classification and processing of data from multiple sources, with a view to providing information considered relevant to decision making, emergency management and the adoption of safety measures by the population. A concise, timely and relevant information is essential for informed decision-making and effective management, resulting ultimately in reducing human, material and environmental damage. Information management should be centralized in a specific service which will play a central role during the emergency, providing support and ensuring adequate transmission and management of information between all entities involved in the management of the water cycle in Lisbon and engaged in emergency operations. This will also be the one responsible for public information, issuing warnings and communication to the population, organizing press conferences and disseminating safety measures and self-protective behaviours In this process it should be considered and previously defined, among others, the channels to be used, the characterization of outgoing messages (predefined - suggests the use of a brief and factual text without being alarmist such as the initial information, the updated situation (constant updating of information conveyed regarding ongoing operations forces engaged , material and human damage , needs assessment and prospects of development of the situation, the return to a normal situation), the target audience, the frequency of messages sending, a redundancy system (Telhado et al., 2014). On the structure of the General Directorate of Health the Works Support Unit Authority National Health and Emergency Management in Public Health, which has, among others, the duties coordinate the evaluation of public health threats and collaborate on risk management with other units of DGS , national and international institutions, in order to ensure an adequate response; explore early detection alerts public health tools, including for

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collection of data on health situations and unexpected phenomena , multiple information sources; monitor and mediate with the external and media relations as well as internally analyse and disseminate national and international press considered relevant to the various areas of DGS. Communication of the results from the WSCP was achieved by written reports, supporting files and forms and other documents as well as presentations at internal meetings.

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4 Achievements and lessons learned

Demonstration of the WCSP framework to Lisbon resulted in extensive developments and the involvement of a relatively large team. In addition to the Lisbon team, work was also carried out with two utilities in Algarve region, Águas do Algarve and Infraquinta, but due to limitations in resources, the demonstration was not completed. However, valuable contributions were provided during the first part of the work, especially in the first steps. These contributions were especially important given the large experience of Águas do Algarve in developing their water safety plan as well as active participation in the IWA Specialised group in Water Safety Plan. The application of the proposed WCSP framework to Lisbon urban water systems was considered beneficial. The proposed WCSP framework, built on the concepts of WSP but incorporating recent developments on generic risk management frameworks, widening the scope to the entire urban water cycle and incorporating additional primary safety aims – public safety and protection of the environment, in addition to the protection of public health, allowed water utilities to work together using similar and compatible approaches for different risks. Therefore, the WSCP approach contributes to the improvement of the work flow towards common objectives. The two levels concept (implementation of the WCSP at integrated level and at system level) was found adequate to achieve an integrated view of the water cycle and associated risk management. The use of a continuous collaborative process involving various stakeholders acting in the water cycle, representing different and sometimes conflicting interests and responsibilities, allowed integration of different objectives, points of view and perceptions of risk. Besides providing a technical basis for decisions, the WCSP approach also resulted in a platform of stakeholders with a comprehensive view of the adaptations needed to reduce the risks that affect the various components of the urban water cycle. In general, the structure of the WCSP allows for a flexible implementation, adapted to different institutional organizations and to distinct levels of available information, resources and risk management backgrounds. In the case of Lisbon, with large and complex urban water systems, low data availability, and where a significant number of risk sources and risk factors exist, implementation can be facilitated by beginning implementation in sub- areas of the water cycle and then gradually implementing in remaining areas, by focusing on priority risks for earlier analysis and treatment and by leaving low priority risks to be assessed in a next cycle of the WCSP. The use of available data to start the process and identifying specific data needs proved to be adequate and allowed significant learnings for participants. The PREPARED tools that support WCSP framework such as the RIDB (Almeida et al., 2011b; 2013b, 2013c) and RRDB databases (Almeida et al. 2011a; 2013d), facilitated the identification of risks and selection of corresponding risk reduction measures. These comprehensive catalogues of events and of RRM were considered a valuable resource to the water utilities,

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especially for those who are initiating WCSP for the first time and need more guidance through the whole process and proved to be essential especially for the non-specialists in risk. The WCSP was an opportunity for improvement of the risk management in the water utilities and it was also be beneficial for other areas within the organizations, such as health and safety, since progress in the knowledge and operation of the systems also occurred, for example, through the identification of new needs for data collection, review of standard procedures and improvement of operational practices. Although the framework is focused on urban water cycle adaptation to climate change, it enables application in a broader context since it was designed to deal with any type of commonly found risks. This was seen as an advantage by water utilities that are interested in implementing risk management covering other risks and not only those related with climate change. The systematic WCSP approach together with the associated tools provide support for an effective decision making and a more efficient use of resources, highlighting areas to be intervened to reduce risk and the priority measures to do it.

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References

Alegre, H., Matos, R., Neves, E. B., Cardoso, A., Duarte, P., Baptista, J. M., Pássaro, Pires, J. S., Freixial, P., Lobo, M. F., Ribeiro, A., Aleixo, C., Ferreira, R., Rodrigues, R., Moinante, M. J., Mira, F., Franco, M. J., Ramos, R., Nunes, M., Lopes, R., Silva, J., Costa, A., Ramos, L., Rodrigues, C., Ruivo, F., Alexandre, C., Gonçalves, P., Andrade, D. (2012). Guia de avaliação da qualidade dos serviços de águas e resíduos prestados aos utilizadores - 2.ª Geração do sistema de avaliação. ERSAR/LNEC, 241 pp., ISBN: 978-989-8360-11-3. Almeida, M.C., Vieira, P., Smeets, P. (2010). Water cycle safety plan framework proposal. Deliverable D 2.1.1. PREPARED Report number 2011.016. PREPARED project. 72 p. Almeida, M.C., Strehl, C., Leitão, J.P. (2011a). Risk reduction measures. Supporting document for RRDB structure. Deliverable D 2.4.1. PREPARED Report number 2011.025. PREPARED project. 38 p. Almeida, M.C., Ugarelli, R., Leitão, J.P., Vieira P. (2011b). Risk identification database. Supporting document for RIDB definition of contents and data structure. Accompanying document to deliverables D2.2.2 and D2.2.3. PREPARED Report number 2011.022/2011.023. PREPARED project. 35 p. Almeida, M.C., Vieira, P., Smeets, P. (2013a). Water cycle safety plan framework. Final. Deliverable D 2.1.4. PREPARED Report number 2013.025. PREPARED project. 102 p. Almeida, M.C., Cardoso, M.A., Vieira P., Ugarelli, R., Leitão, J.P. (2013b). State of the art water cycle risk identification database RIDB with focus on climate change. Deliverable D2.2.5. PREPARED number 2013.026. PREPARED project. MS Excel Database. Almeida, M.C., Ugarelli, R., Vieira P., Cardoso, M.A. (2013c). Guidance on RIDB hazard selection and use in the WCSP. Deliverable D2.2.4. PREPARED Report number 2013.001. PREPARED project. 80 p. Almeida, M.C., Vieira, P., Cardoso, M.A., Strehl, C., Mälzer, H.-J., Leitão, J.P. (2013d). Catalogue of risk reduction measures (Risk Reduction Measures Database). Deliverable D 2.4.2. PREPARED Report number 2011.027. PREPARED project. MS Excel database. Brandão, C., Rodrigues, R., Costa, J. P. (2001). Análise de fenómenos extremos. Precipitações intensas em Portugal Continental. DSRH-INAG, Instituto da Água. Lisbon, Portugal. Dankers, R., Hiederer, R. (2008). Extreme Temperatures and Precipitation in Europe: Analysis of a High-Resolution Climate Change Scenario. European Commission. Luís, A., Martins, B., Martins, V., Aprisco, P., Rodrigues, A., Vieira, P.V., Almeida, M.C., Cardoso, M.A., Azevedo, L., (2014). Demonstration of the SSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in EPAL - Lisbon. PREPARED project..

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Martins, J., David, C., Alves, R., Cardoso, M.A., Almeida, M.C., Vieira, P.V., (2014). Demonstration of the SSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in SimTejo - Lisbon. PREPARED project. Telhado, M.J., Baltazar, S., Fernandes, F., Cardoso, M.A., Almeida, M.C., Vieira, P.V. (2014). Lisbon Municipality contribution to the demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. PREPARED project. Santos, A.A., Mesquita, A., Costa, C., David, C., Gonçalves, F., Broes, J., Araújo, M., Dias, N., Póvoa, P., Lucas, R., Pires, S. (2011). Sistemas de Reutilização de Águas Residuais Tratadas em Lisboa. Caso de estudo de Alcântara - Terreiro do Paço – Belém. Câmara Municipal de Lisboa, Epal, Simtejo, Lisboa e.nova, Portugal.

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Annex 1  Characterization of the example events from Table 7

Event short Event ID E1201.03 description High velocity runoff in Luís de Camões street due to intense rainfall (RP = 10 years) and to insufficient sewers capacity Event description resulting from high river or sea level, causing injuries to public, damages to property, disturbances in services and activities

SYSTEM where Alcântara catchment risk source occurs SUBSYSTEM where risk source - occurs

RISK IDENTIFICATION Hazard High velocity runoff in public streets

. Occurrence of abnormal metereologic phenomena (high intensity rainfall) Risk sources . Occurrence of abnormal hydrologic phenomena (high river or sea level)

. Geographic characteristics (high slope, coincidence with water Contributing streams, direct tidal effect) causes . Inappropriate procedures or methods of cleaning and random obstructions

. Human physical vulnerability Risk factors . Social and economic vulnerability . Infrastructure condition

Existing measures to reduce risk

. M129 - Land-use restrictions . M130 - Reducing of catchment impervious areas . M135 - Tagus river regulation . M138 - Flow control within the drainage network, through the use of valves, weirs, gates, pumps, vortex controls . M144 - Transfer to nearby subsystems or streams . M145 - Flood forecasting and warning . M146 - Flood resilience measures (wet-proofing), e.g. flood resilient buildings and equipment . M147 - Cleansing of urban surface and of systems components . M150 - Adequate maintenance of equipment e.g. pumps in stormwater systems . M160 - Cleaning of drains or sewer pipes . M164 - Emergency response planning

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Description of consequences for each dimension Consequence Dimension Description and metrics class Health and safety 1 Based on records no injuries Costs below 0.1%AOB of the Municipality of Financial and economic 1 Lisbon (low affected area) Environmental impacts n.a. n.a. Functional, service and 3 Affected area = 4050 m2 business continuity Liability, compliance, 1 Image not affected reputation and image

Likelihood associated with the event Mean number of Likelihood in ___ Likelihood class occurrences in Assumptions years reference period based in records of 10 rainfall occurrences with 4 10 return period 10 years: 1976, 1969, 1985, 1987, 1993, 1997, 1999, 2002, 2008

RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION

Dimension Risk level Risk evaluation Health and safety 1 Low Financial and economic 1 Low Environmental impacts n.a. Service continuity 2 Medium Liability, compliance, 1 Low reputation and image Medium – Costs and benefits are to be taken Global assessment 2 into account and opportunities balanced against potential adverse consequences

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Event short Event ID E1301.06 description High depth flooding in public areas or private properties in Alcântara (Docas, R. Fradesso da Silveira, R. Cozinha Económica, Event description R. Vieira da Silva, R. 1 de Maio) due to intense rainfall (RP = 100 years) and to insufficient sewers capacity resulting from high river or sea level, causing injuries to public, damages to property, disturbances in services and activities.

SYSTEM where Alcântara catchment risk source occurs SUBSYSTEM where risk source - occurs

RISK IDENTIFICATION Hazard High depth flooding in public areas or private properties

. Occurrence of abnormal metereologic phenomena (high intensity rainfall) Risk sources . Occurrence of abnormal hydrologic phenomena (high river or sea level)

. Geographic characteristics (low area, coincidence with water Contributing streams mouth, direct tidal effect) causes . Inappropriate procedures or methods of cleaning and random obstructions

. Human physical vulnerability Risk factors . Social and economic vulnerability . Infrastructure condition

Existing measures to reduce risk

. M129 - Land-use restrictions . M130 - Reducing of catchment impervious areas . M135 - Tagus river regulation . M138 - Flow control within the drainage network, through the use of valves, weirs, gates, pumps, vortex controls . M143 - Temporary flooding defences localised for protection in properties . M144 - Transfer to nearby subsystems or streams . M145 - Flood forecasting and warning . M146 - Flood resilience measures (wet-proofing), e.g. flood resilient buildings and equipment . M147 - Cleansing of urban surface and of systems components . M150 - Adequate maintenance of equipment e.g. pumps in stormwater systems . M160 - Cleaning of drains or sewer pipes . M164 - Emergency response planning

Description of consequences for each dimension Consequence Dimension Description and metrics class

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Based on records of injuries requiring hospital Health and safety 2 tratment but no admissions. Costs between 0.1 and 1%AOB of the Financial and economic 2 Municipality of Lisbon (significant affected area) Environmental impacts n.a. n.a. Service continuity 4 Flooding affected area = 300 000 m2 Liability, compliance, References on the media and complaints above 2 reputation and image twice the curren daily average

Likelihood associated with the event Mean number of Likelihood in ___ Likelihood class occurrences in Assumptions years reference period based in records of 5 3 5 rainfall occurrences with return period 100 years: 1967, 1983, 1997

RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION

Dimension Risk level Risk evaluation Health and safety 2 Medium Financial and economic 2 Medium Environmental impacts n.a. Service continuity 2 Medium Liability, compliance, 2 Medium reputation and image Medium – Costs and benefits are to be taken Global assessment 2 into account and opportunities balanced against potential adverse consequences

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Event short Event ID E1705 description Discharge of organics in the water cycle or soil due to discharge of untreated WW from wastewater system caused by failure in Event description Alcântara WWTP for insufficient treatment plant capacity during peak flow causing damages to the environment

SYSTEM where Alcântara system risk source occurs SUBSYSTEM where risk source Alcântara WWTP occurs

RISK IDENTIFICATION Hazard Discharge of organics in the water cycle

. Occurrence of abnormal metereologic phenomena (high Risk sources intensity rainfall) Contributing Design related (flow over plant capacity) causes . Precipitation intensity Risk factors . Contaminant concentration . Infrastructure design, construction and operation

Existing measures to reduce risk

. M030 - Construction of wastewater treatment plant and upgrade existing one (optimization of operating conditions or construction of additional treatment units) to prevent untreated urban wastewater discharges to water bodies Plant with wet weather treatment line (2x Dry Weather peak flow) . M155 - Treatment of CSO, including physico-chemical processes (e.g. conventional tanks allowing settling of solids, vortex separators, screens) and hydraulic performance (Advanced primary treatment line for excess water during rainfall) . M156 - Real time control system to improved regulation and usage of available system capacities (storage, transport and treatment) . M133 - Construction of green roofs . M137 - Inline/offline storage within the drainage network . M141 - Flow control within the drainage network, through the use of valves, weirs, gates, pumps, vortex controls . M145 - Flood forecasting and warning

Description of consequences for each dimension Consequence Dimension Description and metrics class Health and safety 1 Based on records no injuries. Financial and economic 1 Costs below 0.1%AOB of the SimTejo Environmental impacts 1 Rapid recovery Service continuity 1 Low percentage of untreated discharges Liability, compliance, 1 Image not affected reputation and image

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Likelihood associated with the event Mean number of Likelihood in ___ Likelihood class occurrences in Assumptions years reference period Based on rainfall records 5 and WWTP capacity

RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION

Dimension Risk level Risk evaluation Health and safety 2 Medium Financial and economic 2 Medium Environmental impacts 2 Medium Service continuity 2 Medium Liability, compliance, 2 Medium reputation and image Medium – Costs and benefits are to be taken Global assessment 2 into account and opportunities balanced against potential adverse consequences

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 63 - 30 December 2013

Event short Event ID E0506 description Extended periods without supply due to unavailability of surface Event description water in Tagus river due to drought, affecting public health and causing disturbances in services and activities

SYSTEM where risk source occurs

SUBSYSTEM where risk source Tagus subsystem occurs

RISK IDENTIFICATION Hazard Extended periods without supply

. Occurrence of abnormal metereologic phenomena (Decrease Risk sources of precipitation/drought) Related with water systems functional problems - lack of Contributing additional sources, multiple uses and other water systems causes functional problems . Human physical vulnerability (sensitive consumers) Risk factors . Precipitation intensity (decrease of precipitation/drought)

Existing measures to reduce risk

. Use of alternative water sources in case of insufficient water quantity - reuse of treated wastewater from Alcântara WWTP . M016 - Increase of use of water for supply by developing water allocation strategies among competing uses in Tagus river (priority to supply) . M017 - Rationing schemes and restrictions on water use (consumer side)

Description of consequences for each dimension Consequence Dimension Description and metrics class Health and safety 3 Expected public health consequences Financial and economic 3 Costs between 1% and 5% AOB of the EPAL Environmental impacts n.a. n.a. Service continuity 5 Clients affected above 72000 hours.clients Liability, compliance, 4 Adverse coverage by media in front page reputation and image

Likelihood associated with the event Mean number of Likelihood in ___ Likelihood class occurrences in Assumptions years reference period

1 0 Never occurred

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 64 - 30 December 2013

RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION

Dimension Risk level Risk evaluation Health and safety 1 Low Financial and economic 1 Low Environmental impacts n.a. Medium Service continuity 2 Medium Liability, compliance, 1 High reputation and image Medium – Costs and benefits are to be taken Global assessment 2 into account and opportunities balanced against potential adverse consequences

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon. © PREPARED - 65 - 30 December 2013